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Hieronymous Alloy posted:my bet would be a promise not to formally join EU/NATO for [period of time]. It's not something that's going to happen right away anyway, gives Russia a nominal paper win, and not being members doesn't mean can't be allies. But surely one of the first things Ukraine would have to do to be secure would be a rock-solid defensive alliance at least similar in scope to EU. Obviously joining the EU does not happen in a day but Sweden for example joined quite quickly. How long would it take to negotiate a similar defensive alliance without joining?
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Mar 13, 2022 16:07
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:And each aircraft is worth about $40 million, at least if it's one of the new su-34's. Russia may have taken more damage than they inflicted in that attack. Which is kinda irrelevant, though. Suppose you bombed a depot and destroyed a bunch of poo poo worth 20 million buckaroos but lost equipment worth 40 million buckaroos, but if those supplies were not destroyed and were distributed to front they could have killed your stuff for the worth of 400 million dollars? But even that calculation is irrelevant (and impractical). Generals don't count the value of their beans, they count can they continue consuming beans at this rate and are they getting steady bean replenishments to continue operations as planned. Now how long can Russia continue like this before they start running out of airframes? Probably quite some time, but not eternally. But neither can Ukraine so I just hope they don't run out of AA missiles.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:07
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Hand Row posted:No but Ukraine is doing well enough that they wouldn’t sign anything that’s much worse than that. There doing well, but russia can just retreat back to where it was before the invasion started. The only thing russia really needs from a treaty to end this is the lifting of sanctions, with out them technically they could just piss off and pretend none of this every happened.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:11
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William Bear posted:Russia's not smashing any stereotypes with their fondness for potatoes. I also laughed at the guy opening a drawer full of pickles, then opening the one beneath it to reveal another drawer full of pickles. Potatoes keep you warm and pickles are full of salt and electrolytes, onion for flavor. I'm surprised by the amount of room to work in that kitchen KONG has. An efficient cook or two could probably feed 100 people per "sitting" fairly easily. Field kitchens of the trailer variety were very important during the Winter War. More than once, a battle revolved around them. Afterwards, loss of field kitchens was used as a reason for the Soviets to sack a few of their generals.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:13
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Hannibal Rex posted:Thinking about this from the EU perspective, any peace deal has to include stable enough conditions that the majority of the 2.5 million(?) refugees so far will be willing and able to return. This means massive financial aid for reconstruction, (and maybe reparations), which means the EU gets a further foot in the door regarding oversight & anti-corruption. I can definitely see a 'no to NATO, yes to EU' compromise, but Europe has way too much of a vested interest now in Ukraine not becoming a failed state or autocratic corrupt mess to be kept out. In all fairness, Ukraine is so interested in EU that we have both of our legs up their rear end by knees, what is there to talk about the door, when it comes to implementing EU-compliant laws. That said, I do agree with you in spirit - this was why I go against popular wisdom that it’s 10+ years for Ukraine to join EU. Waste has been laid to the country, and even with Russian reparations and massive surge of assistance from the West, it’ll be a mountain of arduous work to return to normal. This is where EU should flex its second muscle (first being wallet, that we’ve witnessed being tremendously effective), and flood Ukraine with civil administrators, to rebuild, rather than to repair what’s broken. If they do that in accordance with my fever federalist dreams, Ukraine could be an EU member state before 2030. Even without all of that, in hypothetical situation where Ukraine signs away its interest to join EU, it is still in our best interests to help them recover as well as possible.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:14
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TulliusCicero posted:Are the separatist regions even a thing? Like do the majority of the people in those places actually want to be Russia or is this just bullshit Putin made up? There were real grievances which meant there was some real support for secession before the republics were set up. However, Russia absolutely cocked it up from the start by putting stupid cartoonisly evil thugs in charge of them, resulting in near instant loss of said support. (Think basement torture chambers and public executions of pretty much random people in streets. Like, that poo poo can work if you pick your targets carefully, but... they didn't.) At this point, most of the population of those regions are actually refugees in the rest of Ukraine. They are also the main recruiting base of the Azov battallion. Putin actually ended up having most of those thugs replaced and doing short walks off tall buildings in Russia, but the damage was already done. At the start of this later war, they couldn't even draw a crowd in public to cheer for the war, and had to fake it with camera angles and like 50 guys. That's really telling. cinci zoo sniper posted:4) Russia quietly pretends they never mentioned “denazification” I find it a lot more likely that they will just loudly proclaim that denazification was entirely successful, and so they don't need to keep doing it anymore. Another likely condition that Putin can loudly proclaim as a win is changes to the language law. In Russia, the 2019 law was very widely called outright oppressive of the Russian minority, and that's not even really wrong. Zelensky opposed it even before the war, but couldn't have pushed the changes through. Now that the Kharkiv regional forces (who basically mostly can't even speak Ukrainian) have covered themselves in glory, it shouldn't be hard for him at all to change it, "The heroes of fortress city Kharkiv have earned the right to spell the name of their city however they loving want." Tuna-Fish fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 16:18
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Tiny Timbs posted:I wasn't "alleging" anything, merely stating that Russia had been sanctioned before. How serious they'll continue to be isn't up to me. Fair enough. My point was to note that just the 2014-2021 sanctions were noteworthy, and only in 2022 they’ve eaten something they’d deem unsustainable.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:18
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madeintaipei posted:Potatoes keep you warm and pickles are full of salt and electrolytes, onion for flavor. I'm not in catering any more but i would be quite happy to work in that setup, two cooks and a helper and it would be good to go, looks like they had a good lot of potatoes, onions and i think carrots on it. One of the drawers had a sharpening stone in it as well. 
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Mar 13, 2022 16:19
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Alchenar posted:Duda is inviting a conversation in NATO about 'what next'. That's all. By saying the question out loud every other leader needs to have an answer ready.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:21
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Hannibal Rex posted:Thinking about this from the EU perspective, any peace deal has to include stable enough conditions that the majority of the 2.5 million(?) refugees so far will be willing and able to return. This means massive financial aid for reconstruction, (and maybe reparations), which means the EU gets a further foot in the door regarding oversight & anti-corruption. I can definitely see a 'no to NATO, yes to EU' compromise, but Europe has way too much of a vested interest now in Ukraine not becoming a failed state or autocratic corrupt mess to be kept out. 2.5 million are just the external refugees. There are many more internally from this war, and at least 1.4 million internal refugees from the 2014 conflict.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:21
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Grouchio posted:Why do I feel like he's implying something else? Something only your therapist can answer, probably.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:23
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Fidelitious posted:But surely one of the first things Ukraine would have to do to be secure would be a rock-solid defensive alliance at least similar in scope to EU. Obviously joining the EU does not happen in a day but Sweden for example joined quite quickly. Scandinavian Defense Union - Sweden, Finland, Ireland, and Ukraine. Tuna-Fish posted:Another likely condition that Putin can loudly proclaim as a win is changes to the language law. In Russia, the 2019 law was very widely called outright oppressive of the Russian minority, and that's not even really wrong. Zelensky opposed it even before the war, but couldn't have pushed the changes through. Now that the Kharkiv regional forces (who basically mostly can't even speak Ukrainian) have basically covered themselves in glory, it shouldn't be hard for him at all to change it, "The heroes of fortress city Kharkiv have earned the right to spell the name of their city however they loving want." Here I agree with you, I could definitely see Russian declared as an official language for some areas, or even the entire country, provided that other Ukrainian conditions are met. If they’re in EU they won’t really give a poo poo about that kind of thing as a security concern anyway, because EU money will very quickly straighten out everyone’s priorities.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:23
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William Bear posted:Russia's not smashing any stereotypes with their fondness for potatoes. I also laughed at the guy opening a drawer full of pickles, then opening the one beneath it to reveal another drawer full of pickles. Pickles are at the heart of every cold-climate cuisine and also India for some reason.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:24
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William Bear posted:Russia's not smashing any stereotypes with their fondness for potatoes. I also laughed at the guy opening a drawer full of pickles, then opening the one beneath it to reveal another drawer full of pickles. Two Russians look at clouds. One see potato. Other see impossible dream. Is same cloud.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:24
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Boris Galerkin posted:Something only your therapist can answer, probably.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:24
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Reading on https://liveuamap.com/ that 2,187 civilians have been killed by shelling in Mariupol alone, which seems insane and a war crime
Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 16:25
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Tafferling posted:Can we really trust someone named Slutsky? Please, no slutsky-shaming. MRLOLAST posted:Russia abolished serfdom in like the 1800 hundreds. The regular people have always been opressed. Etnocentrically speaking compared to their Western neighbours. In Peter I's time they were still taking slaves during war. Like, if you were a Swedish soldier captured at the battle of Poltava in 1709 or a Finnish civilian captured during the following occupation, you would be taken to Russia as a slave. That new capital is not going to build itself on a swamp!
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Mar 13, 2022 16:26
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Phlegmish posted:Reading on https://liveuamap.com/ that 2.187 civilians have been killed by shelling in Mariupol alone, which seems insane and a war crime I’m not sure if that figure is accurate, as local authorities reported “just” 1600 a day or two ago. Either way, it’s an undeniable atrocity, and anyone having the gall to clamour about Russian liberators should be sent photos of Mariupol mass graves, which officials were forced to resort to a few days ago already.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:27
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KitConstantine posted:I think that any and all negotiations are completely theoretical until we hear from Putin. He's the only one with the power to accept on the Russian side and it remains to be seen what he'll accept. Exactly this, even after the meeting in Turkey with Lavrov, Kuleba said Lavrov doesn't decide anything Slutsky and Medinsky are loving jokers that are pushing the denazification poo poo. If they're more willing to compromise that might be a good sign but it's also very likely that they're nobodies for the cameras creating the image that Russia is negotiating peace. Any compromise will be a loving disaster for Putin because there are a lot of corpses and economic destruction now that he will have to answer for and importantly Ukrainians are very angry and very motivated to fight. Significant concessions will not be accepted by them I think Somaen fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 16:28
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Pickles are at the heart of every cold-climate cuisine and also India for some reason. With its climate and history, India has needed all the food preservation techniques it can get.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:29
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Nenonen posted:(CW: War) Ukraine v Russia: Please, no slutsky-shaming !!READ OP WARNING!!
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Mar 13, 2022 16:29
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Scandinavian Defense Union - Sweden, Finland, Ireland, and Ukraine. I would also ask Switzerland to join, then we would truly be undefeatable!
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Mar 13, 2022 16:29
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Regarding the FSB letters and their authenticity, I’ll just note here that the 4th one casually mentions that Xi Jinping was considering an invasion of Taiwan in autumn to boost his internal position prior to his re-election this year. If that letter actually is authentic that’s kind of a massive bombshell. Let that affect your read on how true the letters are as you will.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:31
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Phlegmish posted:Reading on https://liveuamap.com/ that 2.187 civilians have been killed by shelling in Mariupol alone, which seems insane and a war crime I doubt the number is that high. This is like 4x the reported civilian death toll from a couple of days ago of all Ukraine
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Mar 13, 2022 16:32
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Tomn posted:Regarding the FSB letters and their authenticity, I’ll just note here that the 4th one casually mentions that Xi Jinping was considering an invasion of Taiwan in autumn to boost his internal position prior to his re-election this year. I suspect the original was real and the later ones were faked.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:32
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I’m not sure if that figure is accurate, as local authorities reported “just” 1600 a day or two ago. Either way, it’s an undeniable atrocity, and anyone having the gall to clamour about Russian liberators should be sent photos of Mariupol mass graves, which officials were forced to resort to a few days ago already. If the city is cut off from medicine and other basic needs, the death toll can ramp up massively just from preventable deaths from injuries. It's a terrible sizuation.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:32
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Nenonen posted:I would also ask Switzerland to join, then we would truly be undefeatable! Greenland and the Faroese Islands are technically not allowed an independent foreign policy, but by common agreement with the other member of the Danish kingdom, they do have weird exemptions (like Greenland mostly not being part of the EU), so I reckon we could work something out and get this new bloc some north Atlantic bases?
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Mar 13, 2022 16:32
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I think it's way too early for Russia to be offering any kind of serious peace deal with concessions. I can imagine them giving Ukraine false positive signals behind closed doors, so that when they retract their promises at the last minute, they can spin the situation to seem like Ukraine had declined a serious peace proposal.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:32
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Nenonen posted:
If it flew and bombed someone in Poland or the Baltics someone would be calling for activating article 5 probably. I wonder what would be the NATO response then since it's an accident but also uhhhh
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Mar 13, 2022 16:33
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Sputnik is reporting that Putin told Erdogan that he's willing to meet with Ze. On one hand it's silly to impute anything into a organ's pronouncement that Putin is "reasonable". On the other, Russia watchers absolutely must parse every statement to see if there is a modicum of useful info between the lines. Is today the "Sunday" that was projected to be the probable time for a Russian decision point to occur due to its inherent logistic problems?
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Mar 13, 2022 16:34
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Nenonen posted:I would also ask Switzerland to join, then we would truly be undefeatable! switzerland and ireland in the same defensive alliance would end up like Ankh-Morpork, they just call in debts any time you go to war.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:34
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BoldFace posted:I think it's way too early for Russia to be offering any kind of serious peace deal with concessions. I can imagine them giving Ukraine false positive signals behind closed doors, so that when they retract their promises at the last minute, they can spin the situation to seem like Ukraine had declined a serious peace proposal. Except that if that Russian position on the ground is likely to be somewhat binary in that it will look strong until it suddenly collapses. If one of the AOs suddenly can't properly supply their front line units they will basically evaporate - at least that's the theory put forth by may observers. So Russia will want to get a deal before such an event happens, and from the outside it is not going to be apparent how close we are until it actually happens.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:35
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the popes toes posted:Sputnik is reporting that Putin told Erdogan that he's willing to meet with Ze. On one hand it's silly to impute anything into a organ's pronouncement that Putin is "reasonable". On the other, Russia watchers absolutely must parse every statement to see if there is a modicum of useful info between the lines. I believe that was last Sunday and the projection was that that was when Russian troops in country would functionally run out of supplies. They don't seem to have made any significant advances since then, so, yeah.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:35
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If I were an Ukrainian official, I'd be extremely paranoid about any Russian attempt to lure Zelensky out of Kyiv
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Mar 13, 2022 16:35
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I’m not sure if that figure is accurate, as local authorities reported “just” 1600 a day or two ago. Either way, it’s an undeniable atrocity, and anyone having the gall to clamour about Russian liberators should be sent photos of Mariupol mass graves, which officials were forced to resort to a few days ago already. I've read that Mariupol strongly backed Yanukovych back in the day, but with these atrocities that are being committed by the Russians I highly doubt that will translate into support for the occupying forces, or interest in setting up another garbage people's republic. e: my mistake, they'd be part of Donetsk Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 16:39 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 16:36
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Boris Galerkin posted:Something only your therapist can answer, probably. I can recommend this one 
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Mar 13, 2022 16:36
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BoldFace posted:I think it's way too early for Russia to be offering any kind of serious peace deal with concessions. I can imagine them giving Ukraine false positive signals behind closed doors, so that when they retract their promises at the last minute, they can spin the situation to seem like Ukraine had declined a serious peace proposal. Depends on your perspective whether "more deaths than the United States military suffered in both Iraq and Afghanistan combined in a mere three weeks" is too early
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Mar 13, 2022 16:37
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Tomn posted:Regarding the FSB letters and their authenticity, I’ll just note here that the 4th one casually mentions that Xi Jinping was considering an invasion of Taiwan in autumn to boost his internal position prior to his re-election this year. The author is not saying that this is what's going on. He was saying that this is one of the narratives in the FSB analyst wing of the events unfolding, that the US masterfully orchestrated the crisis to weaken Russia with the goal of isolating China
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Mar 13, 2022 16:38
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Phlegmish posted:I've read that Mariupol strongly backed Yanukovych back in the day, but with these atrocities that are being committed by the Russians I highly doubt that will translate into support for the occupying forces, or interest in setting up another garbage people's republic. Mariupol is Akhmetov's town. Akhemtov has previously aligned himself with Yanukovich, yes, but he is loyal to himself first.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:38
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Shogeton posted:I imagine that the Russian speaking folks in the east that might have gone 'huh, we feel kind of treated like second rank citizens in Ukraine, maybe it would be better if we were independent/Russian are feeling a lot more Ukrainian after Russia warcrimed it up all over the east. President Zelensky is a Russian speaker so it’s not that marginalised. I tried to get some numbers but the wiki page has a lot of very recent edits so I wouldn’t rely on anything it says at this point.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:39
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