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William Bear posted:I wonder what kind of security preparations go into these trips. The president of the United States doesn't go on casual walks in the street like this, and there isn't an enemy army a few miles from Washington D.C. They still control the rooftops and buildings it's not like he's walking around in a tent city in an open field. True there could always be a rogue dummy wanting to pop one off because they think it's going to end the war but it's unlikely with his gaggle around him. Also from what we're seeing Intel isn't moving very quickly back to RUS command so movements arnt totally impeded yet.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:25
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CommieGIR posted:Problem is the Israeli rep that showed up for the negotiations previously told Zelensky to just surrender, and that went over as well a you'd expect. That was allegedly the PM Bennett Interestingly the Ukrainian advisor and the Israeli office came out saying it's not true Possibly Ukrainian/Israeli disinfo leak to force Israel to take a position?
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Mar 13, 2022 17:26
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punishedkissinger posted:Why do you keep posting this guy? he has no qualifications, expertise, or track record of being correct. Are you confusing me for someone else? This is the first time I posted any tweet of any kind, let alone this dude. That being said, in theory he's just translating the original documents which apparently were given to these guys: Somaen posted:Again I am giving this the benefit of the doubt only because it gave Gulagu.net (a reliable whistleblower) legit information that predicted events before they unfolded. We'll have to see if anything else from the source (which seems to be coming from the same email) comes true So he himself isn't the actual source and the only qualification that matters for him is how good he is as a translator. I think some of the native Russian speakers here noted that his translations miss out on some of the nuance of the originals, though, so eh. Edit: Also the reason why I'm personally interested in that specific snippet and why it made me sit up and take notice is because I AM Taiwanese and I would very much like to be reassured that this letter is talking out its rear end.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:27
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Grouchio posted:But that was Borrell's fault for screwing up the messaging in the first place. State Dept is being super duper careful on the conflict. Yeah, Borrell is a clown, and has bombed the messaging multiple times in recent weeks, as recently as 2 days ago with the €500m fund for Ukraine.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:27
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CommieGIR posted:Problem is the Israeli rep that showed up for the negotiations previously told Zelensky to just surrender, and that went over as well a you'd expect. Yeah, this was from an unnamed "official" whose statements were immediately repudiated by both sides foreign ministries so I dunno about that
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Mar 13, 2022 17:30
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Captain Kosmos posted:Fingoon here, but I don't have any idea how the languages work in Ukraine, just presumed that Putin is lying. I said that because USA doesn’t have an official language. Ukrainian language’s status as the sole official language is exactly the same as that of every other formally monolingual European country, which is a crushing absolutely majority of them, population-wise (Russia notwithstanding). Russians being linguistically oppressed in Ukraine is the purest horseshit out there.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:31
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punishedkissinger posted:Why do you keep posting this guy? he has no qualifications, expertise, or track record of being correct. He’s fairly good at translating Russian to English, which is the only job he’s doing there, hth.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:32
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All this while talking up all the Syrian fighters you're flying in. Delightful https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1503041461859803147?t=zmX4toA0y-M2y_xFiZIb1w&s=19 Side note: Russians have been trying to re-bridge rivers where Ukrainians blew the existing ones. It's not going well https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1503042839739084809?t=En0_11_OiGMntoKeh4pQHw&s=19
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Mar 13, 2022 17:33
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Nice introduction to the Javelin and info relating to it in, just out today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbO1cfHQT1c  
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Mar 13, 2022 17:46
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https://twitter.com/InstaNewsAlerts/status/1503039606287220742 Sooo, let's hope that not happens... or maybe it's an invitation 
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Mar 13, 2022 17:46
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Czech Defense minister calls for upping their support for Ukraine https://twitter.com/_JakubJanda/status/1502978190607851525?t=oFHG2znmK-l72wA82OihqQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1503000230777823239?t=badaXDLmbDV2-Dn18CahpQ&s=19 Visegrad Group: from their website posted:The Visegrad Group (also known as the "Visegrad Four" or simply "V4") reflects the efforts of the countries of the Central European region to work together in a number of fields of common interest within the all-European integration. Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have always been part of a single civilization sharing cultural and intellectual values and common roots in diverse religious traditions, which they wish to preserve and further strengthen. Though from news articles it seems that the alliance isn't all that stable
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Mar 13, 2022 17:50
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Trump posted:https://twitter.com/InstaNewsAlerts/status/1503039606287220742 gently caress off no one wants war with Russia e: content: nice thread on the Russian military from Kofman https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1503037124639141896?s=21 smug n stuff fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 17:51
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smug n stuff posted:gently caress off no one wants war with Russia There there now big guy. I do think a few Ukrainians would love for some NATO intervention though.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:55
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Trump posted:There there now big guy. "I'm not touching you!" Isn't a genuine security policy and we shouldn't tolerate it. I understand going further is Clancychat but at some point the bully must be dealt with.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:00
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Shes Not Impressed posted:"I'm not touching you!" Isn't a genuine security policy and we shouldn't tolerate it. I understand going further is Clancychat but at some point the bully must be dealt with. I agree but there's no easy answer to this. How do we get rid of the bully without igniting WW3? The way western nations are holding back isn't hesitation, it's a genuine attempt to avoid igniting a spark that could have horrific consequences for the world
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Mar 13, 2022 18:03
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smug n stuff posted:gently caress off no one wants war with Russia It does send a message to Putin - "Here is your off-ramp if you want it". The regime can get away looking far less weak taking a "no ground gained" peace if NATO has joined. Ie "Criminal and vile US-led NATO have now shown their true colors by waiting until their terrorists, using the Ukrainian people as human shields, have bled us dry - we ask for peace to spare Ukraine and Russia further suffering and show we want peace, while NATO wants war and the destruction of Russia". I'm not saying it is especially likely to happen - but I do think Kreml itself is considering all kinds of weird brinkmanship to get itself out of a tight spot if things start falling apart on the ground. They know NATO will never fire the first nuke, so Russia always has the *option* of dragging NATO into the war without risiking annihilation. They will lose any chance at winning the war, but if they think they've already lost, why not lose to the big guy instead of Ukraine?
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Mar 13, 2022 18:04
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I want to take this post to just note for any not aware: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is, like all the "Radio Free X" imprints and Voice of America, a US state-run media outlet. US foreign-facing propaganda outlets operate differently from RT et al in that they have a bunch of public controls, transparency requirements, and separation from the military or state department leadership; they tend to be staffed by actual journalists and alternate between anodyne original reporting and running newswire articles. When I say this is qualitatively different from the likes of RT, or the Global Times or Al Jazeera, I'm not saying that they're good because they're American (or even that they are good); their approach and goals are just pretty basically different. The original model for these outlets was to disrupt state-controlled media in target countries by broadcasting actual journalism into their spaces, especially stuff that contradicts existing state propaganda. The USSR/Russia was always one of the primary targets for this. One side effect is that these channels do actually cover news that paints the US in a bad light, like the Jan 6 attack on the capitol. Again, none of this is to say that the US doesn't do more conventional foreign-facing propaganda, but they don't have the equivalent of RT pushing "the government position" or trying to bust up governments. Where we use propaganda for deceptive or manipulation purposes, it tends to be more specific, and run directly out of the military or state department. I also recall that during the Trump admin, some of the firewalls between these outlets and the state department were removed; I'm not sure where that stands now. RFE also used to not broadcast or address domestic US audiences to further control against domestic propaganda poisoning; I have seen exceptions in the past few years, which I believe can be chalked up to a) blurring of lines in the internet period, and b) over time, they've developed staff and actual expertise in their geographic area, so their authors get sought as, for example, sources on what happens when Russia cracks down on dissenting media. In conclusion, while rfe or related , you should bear their motivations and biases in mind. I would imagine that under present circumstances, they're likely focusing extremely hard on Ukraine and are operating as close to general propaganda in form as possible, with a particular focus on Ukrainian suffering. edit: Yeah, RFE is basically exclusively covering the war. VoA is not as fixated and provides a general sense of how these entities operate. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 18:07
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NATO: We must discuss aforehand what a "proportional response" to a Russian errant missle hitting Polish territory. *Poland raises its hand* NATO: With the understanding of course that it is not escalatory. *Poland raises hand higher "me, me, ask me"*
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Mar 13, 2022 18:09
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Shes Not Impressed posted:"I'm not touching you!" Isn't a genuine security policy and we shouldn't tolerate it. I understand going further is Clancychat but at some point the bully must be dealt with. To be clear, I think the NATO/US statement is good. To me, that is what not “tolerating it” looks like. My objection is to forums user “Trump”‘s apparently sincere desire for Russia to hit Poland so the US can get in on the war action and nuclear annihilation can occur.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:12
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Tomn posted:Eh, it seems a bit unclear to me. Yes, the whole thing is supposedly the narrative being developed, but the claim about China invading Taiwan was used in terms that suggested "This WAS happening, until we hosed it up." I can't read Russian myself so maybe the original comes off differently, but I looked it up and these are the Igor Sushko translation excerpts: I find it highly dubious that the CCP was planning on moving against Taiwan in the Fall. The PLA and PLN would already need to be making preparations--preparations American intelligence would detect immediately. I do think this is right though in the sense that China is seeing now the difficulty that Russia is having--with it's paper superior armed forces than either the PLA or PLN--fighting against a highly motivated force armed and trained by the West. The military calculus alone, never mind the sanction regime they are seeing, should be screaming to the Chinese that they are not prepared to invade, conquer, and hold Taiwan; especially given, while not a certainty, there is a significantly higher probability that the United States would become directly involved than there was/is in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:13
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:I agree but there's no easy answer to this. How do we get rid of the bully without igniting WW3? The way western nations are holding back isn't hesitation, it's a genuine attempt to avoid igniting a spark that could have horrific consequences for the world I guess by copying his own tricks. How about not sending troops to Ukraine, but allowing soldiers to take a voluntary leave and find employment in the ranks of Rengaw Inc.? Warfare was based on mercenary companies for centuries.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:13
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I want to reply to all the posts about a potential NATO response, but it's in clancychat territory and screw that. I really really do not hope NATO will be forced to intervene, but on the other hand, gently caress Russia and gently caress Putin.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:15
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Discendo Vox posted:Radio Free Europe Not directly related to the situation at hand, but fun fact about former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toomas_Hendrik_Ilves posted:From 1984 to 1993, Ilves worked in Munich, Germany as a journalist for Radio Free Europe, being the head of its Estonian desk since 1988.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:15
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The thing about bullies is that they can dish it out but they can't take it. If NATO did play by the Russian rulebook, with hybrid warfare and deniable operations, suddenly you'd get a good sense or how imbalanced the power differential is.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:18
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Trump posted:https://twitter.com/InstaNewsAlerts/status/1503039606287220742 Good. The only thing more important than the red lines is clearly telegraphing the red lines. All the relevant actors should already know all of this, but underlining and emphasizing it is critical given the stakes. If there's a mistake or a "small" incursion over the Polish border, god help us all. Deciding a NATO response would be the most tense and consequential decision making in human history.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:18
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Not sure how long this will remain up: https://www.sakharov-center.ru/article/zayavlenie-pravleniya-sakharovskogo-centra Statement of the Board of the Sakharov Center (in Russia, prominent and respected human rights org) (Google trans) Today our country is experiencing perhaps the most shameful days of its history. Russian society allowed itself to be dragged into the funnel of a monstrous crisis. The result was death, destruction and untold suffering in the neighboring country. What happened means the moral bankruptcy of our society. And with this, regardless of the outcome of events, we will have to live for many years. The way out of this state will require a radical change in the basic attitudes of national self-consciousness, if it turns out to be possible at all. The horror of the position of any honest citizen of Russia is that any truthful word about what is happening, not to mention more obvious forms of protest, means automatic transformation into an open target for repression. Сегодня наша страна переживает возможно самые позорные дни собственной истории. Российское общество позволило затянуть себя в воронку чудовищного кризиса. Результатом стали смерть, разрушения и неисчислимые страдания в соседней стране. Произошедшее означает моральное банкротство нашего общества. И с этим вне зависимости от исхода событий нам придется жить долгие годы. Выход из этого состояния потребует кардинальной смены базовых установок национального самосознания, если вообще окажется возможным. Ужас положения всякого честного гражданина России в том, что любое правдивое слово о происходящем, не говоря уже о более явных формах протеста – означает автоматическое превращение в открытую мишень для репрессий. И тут выбор может быть только личным.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:19
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smug n stuff posted:gently caress off no one wants war with Russia First of all, unfortunately, I do not think you have your ears to the ground with your 'average' American right now. When my mom, who is a progressive Democrat, is calling me up and talking my ear off about how we should just "deal with Russia now" then what you are saying about 'nobody' wanting war with Russia is wrong. Maybe the more accurate thing to say is, most of the people still being rational do not want war with Russia. Second of all, this is a corner that NATO has painted itself in. NATO has been fairly clear: any hostile act on NATO soil--including cyber attacks--will trigger Article 5; and Article 5 is an all or nothing thing. It will mean war. To dither, hand ring, or defer invoking Article 5 would mean Putin got exactly what he wanted and NATO, it turns out, does not have the courage of its convictions. I do not see that happening now. In other words, Putin better be drat sure there are no Russian bombs landing on NATO soil--accidentally or otherwise.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:24
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CommieGIR posted:Problem is the Israeli rep that showed up for the negotiations previously told Zelensky to just surrender, and that went over as well a you'd expect. Wasn't that 'rep' Bennett, aka the Israeli prime minister? E: Woops, hadn't refreshed the page. Answered a long time ago.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:24
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TheRat posted:Wasn't that 'rep' Bennett, aka the Israeli prime minister? The Israeli government denied this after that story leaked, so who knows.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:30
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Ukrainians are apparently able to start launching counter offensives. https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1503053769361272837?t=6divMAtUpiaOVpt6YOh1pA&s=19 I'm sure we'll see more about this tomorrow Russians also seem to be piling troops into Irpin/Kyiv suburbs. Priming for the push for Kyiv tonight/tomorrow? Ukraine has more night vision equipment so that limits Russian options. https://twitter.com/sterion75/status/1502994164044156937?t=QIARmW2PlvdGnPtDyE-9aQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502992766397255680?t=PI4xLCKn-DfyrDq5QXs7Tw&s=19
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Mar 13, 2022 18:32
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ZombieLenin posted:First of all, unfortunately, I do not think you have your ears to the ground with your 'average' American right now. When my mom, who is a progressive Democrat, is calling me up and talking my ear off about how we should just "deal with Russia now" then what you are saying about 'nobody' wanting war with Russia is wrong. Maybe the more accurate thing to say is, most of the people still being rational do not want war with Russia. I'll add a pile of anecdotes of my own to this. I haven't seen a willingness to go to war with a peer country at this level in America in my entire life. If Russia does anything to a NATO country, it will be politically impossible to avoid.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:35
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Rigel posted:I'll add a pile of anecdotes of my own to this. I haven't seen a willingness to go to war with a peer country at this level in America in my entire life. If Russia does anything to a NATO country, it will be politically impossible to avoid. There's new polling from only a few days ago suggesting that Republican and Democrat attitudes towards Russia and Ukraine have completely converged to the point that opposition to Russia and support for Ukraine are at a statistical tie for each group. Though not directly related to the question of war, it's a shocking development and rarely happens about anything given current levels of far-right propaganda. For all the Tucker Carlsons out there, the pro-Russia message really is failing in the US.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:43
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Just Another Lurker posted:Nice introduction to the Javelin and info relating to it in, just out today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbO1cfHQT1c This is a really good video, thank you. Cocktail napkin math from the video - 300 javelins fired at 180k each (I believe that is the all-in price with CLU) would be 54m. Video says estimated 200 vehicles destroyed, and of course not all of those are T-90s (or T-14s  ). With a unit price of 750k for an older BMP-3 and something like 4m at the high end for a T-90, (assuming they're not being used to blow up fuel trucks ) I'd assume an average of 1m cost per vehicle lost? 54m to 200m seems like a strong number, and most of the fighting vehicles are completely irreplaceable to Russia. With the military cost on both sides, the infrastructure damage, lives lost, sanctions and ruble=rubble, this must be one of the most expensive few weeks in human history.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:43
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https://twitter.com/TsybulskaLiubov/status/1503014012363186177?cxt=HHwWgoC9tf3R49spAAAA
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Mar 13, 2022 18:43
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KitConstantine posted:
Do you think he's dumb enough to be in the blacked out 4x4 and not a random support car
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Mar 13, 2022 18:44
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Time for a boats update! The russians are moving around a little bit more. https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1502944456777117696?s=20&t=6JAiyvCjwAJhKxRAQkI5sA https://twitter.com/TheShipYard2/status/1503040737352507395?s=20&t=6JAiyvCjwAJhKxRAQkI5sA Looks like they're giving up on Odesa for the moment as too tough a nut to crack, but may try an amphibious landing near Mariupol to increase the pressure there? See the first image of the second tweet. Still the arena with the least amount of coverage.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:45
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Vampire Panties posted:This is a really good video, thank you. Cocktail napkin math from the video - 300 javelins fired at 180k each (I believe that is the all-in price with CLU) would be 54m. Video says estimated 200 vehicles destroyed, and of course not all of those are T-90s (or T-14s They're also using a lot of cheaper atgms. NLAWs are way cheaper, less than a quarter of a Javelin depending on where you look and have similar destructive power (but shorter range). Not sure about the older gear they have but I would assume even less valuable.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:47
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eke out posted:There's new polling from only a few days ago suggesting that Republican and Democrat attitudes towards Russia and Ukraine have completely converged to the point that opposition to Russia and support for Ukraine are at a statistical tie for each group. So uh, having knocked Putin for thinking that a short victorious righteous war against a hapless opponent is just to thing to revitalise a nation that believes itself to be a great power in decline...
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Mar 13, 2022 18:48
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ZombieLenin posted:I find it highly dubious that the CCP was planning on moving against Taiwan in the Fall. The PLA and PLN would already need to be making preparations--preparations American intelligence would detect immediately. But the Russian regime may have believed they would. They're constantly paranoid about everyone else and think the US has everything from Italy to Sweden as a puppet. If the FSB letters aren't fake, they're even seriously worried about Georgia and Japan attacking them. With that kind of worldview it might be easy to see any Chinese 'aggressive diplomacy' as the first phase of an actual invasion. It could also be wishful thinking. Considering the incredible failure to accurately assess realities in regards to Ukrainian resistance and Russian military strength, they might simply have deluded themselves into a reality where China is joining the party any moment now. Who knows, China may even have goaded them along (although I doubt it).
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Mar 13, 2022 18:48
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KitConstantine posted:Czech Defense minister calls for upping their support for Ukraine I think the long and short: Putin, even if he takes Ukraine, has done everything in his power to ensure the exact opposite of what he wanted happens. KitConstantine posted:Time for a boats update! The russians are moving around a little bit more. I don't think this matters, even if an amphibious landing and more penetration in the South of Ukraine happens. The reality is Russia has shown they cannot supply a lot of these units in the field, especially over the distances these amphibious groups would need to cover.
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Mar 13, 2022 18:49
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