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gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Vampire Panties posted:

I believe the Ukrainian ATGMs are beam-riding, so it wouldn't really work.

What I'm curious about are small autonomous drones networked together with electro-optical sensors and IR jamming lasers. The drones could fly CAP over a tank, using their cameras to detect sudden movement or launches, and then bathe the entire area in jamming laser. It would be fast enough to stop a Javelin launch, and pointing a bunch of lasers from a battery operated drone is effectively free and tactically inexhaustible. If the drone sensors mistake a person opening a window or a sheet flapping in the breeze for a launch, who cares? All theyre doing is pointing a bunch of complicated flashlights at it. The drones could fly so far up and so fast that they would be extremely hard for infantry to detect or intercept, and its reasonable to think they could all be completely autonomous and networked together.

If they're beam riding that would rule it out.

I wonder if it's hard to develop a system that can aim at the designated target without needing the beam riding bit. Those missiles have a range of several km so being able to paint tank after tank with a tiny laser on board an expendable drone would enable a battery of those missiles to stage an ambush with relative impunity.

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Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Antillie posted:

Who's to say that the US hasn't? I mean, we see plenty of coverage of the TB2's wrecking things. That would make excellent cover for a couple of US built terrors quietly roving around blowing stuff up.

I mean, the US probably hasn't, but hey, you never know.

This is would be incredibly stupid because as Ukraine is not an operator of Reapers, Russia could interpret it as the US kinetically intervening if they spotted or shot down any.

headspace
Apr 25, 2014

Conspiratiorist posted:

This is would be incredibly stupid because as Ukraine is not an operator of Reapers, Russia could interpret it as the US kinetically intervening if they spotted or shot down any.

You are probably right, but several American aerospace firms have subsidiaries that basically serve as drone mercenaries. In theory we could have Americans operating drones from the Nevada desert that have nothing to do with the US government. I know a little bit about this because I have a good friend that left the Air-force after 8 years to fly drones in Iraq for Boeing. They were ostensibly doing only reconnaissance though, so missile drones is a bit far fetched.

Vampire Panties
Apr 18, 2001
nposter
Nap Ghost

Doccers posted:

went over this earlier on in the thread, but in summary:
-Training (both ground support and operators - yes its made to be easy to operate but it's still a specialty job and keeping them flying requires a trained ground crew)
-Pretty overt support that toes the escalation line
-Expensive
-Something we'd rather not let the Russians get a hold of directly

Plus they seem to be doing ok with their current Turkish stuff, and it seems Turkey is keeping them well supplied.

Turkey hasn't even given Ukraine their final form (drone) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baykar_Bayraktar_Ak%C4%B1nc%C4%B1 IIRC the Bayraktar TB2 can carry 4 MAM-L bombs; the Akinci can carry 16 :getin:


gay picnic defence posted:

If they're beam riding that would rule it out.

I wonder if it's hard to develop a system that can aim at the designated target without needing the beam riding bit. Those missiles have a range of several km so being able to paint tank after tank with a tiny laser on board an expendable drone would enable a battery of those missiles to stage an ambush with relative impunity.


The Ukraine Skif (as well as the UK Starstreak) are beam-riding SACLOS so you're right, jamming them wouldn't necessarily work. The Javelin is IR seeking, and I believe NLAW is electro-optical with GPS?

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



EscapeHere posted:

I am Canadian so am not familiar with all these people. I do know Tulsi Gubbard because she was a dem presidential candidate.

What do they all have in common?

Tulsi Gabbard was ostensibly a democrat who loved dictators and also claimed that she thought the woke left were the bigger threat to America. Tolerated to Defended Trump

Candace Owens was an anti-gamer gater who got gaslit into being Alt-Right, said Hitler had good ideas. Another person who claims the woke left is out of control and she left them. Loves Trump

Jack Prozobiec (I think that's how you spell it, honestly the shitstain isn't worth the effort to check) is a former Navy Piss Tester who steals valor by claiming Special forces status. Pushed Pizzagate conspiracies, constantly complains about the woke Left. LOVES Trump and has been actively implicated in cyber things involving him

Glenn Greenwald...Ooh boy where to even begin. Got a rep as a "leftist" when he helped Snowden with leaking the NSA stuff, turned out to just be a right wing lolbertian who just REALLY hated Obama and immigrants. Made his own publishing website which he got kicked off of for being too loving insane. Actively defended and praised Trump in his war against the "deep state"

Coincidently, all of these goobers really denied and played down Russia's involvement in the Trump campaign. Coincidentally also played down Trump coercing Ukraine and witholding defense and military aid.

Wierd, that :thunk:

TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 05:53 on Mar 14, 2022

Antillie
Mar 14, 2015

Conspiratiorist posted:

This is would be incredibly stupid because as Ukraine is not an operator of Reapers, Russia could interpret it as the US kinetically intervening if they spotted or shot down any.

Good point. With a stinger or javelin you know more or less that it was fired by some Ukrainian but with a drone who the hell knows who's really flying it.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Oh, that's interesting. The Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation suggests Apple and Google pump out some agitprop. I confess I like this idea.

https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1503113602517155849?cxt=HHwWkoC-8fH2kNwpAAAA

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Let's do a no fly zone but gently caress it up via liberalism and accidentally force the Ukraine AF down but leave the Russian planes up

Sally Sprodgkin
May 23, 2007

the popes toes posted:

Oh, that's interesting. The Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation suggests Apple and Google pump out some agitprop. I confess I like this idea.

https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1503113602517155849?cxt=HHwWkoC-8fH2kNwpAAAA

Sadly this would make exactly 50% of people go hard the other way because of Big Tech or whatever the latest conspiracy in the alt-right is. Best to let people make up their own minds, or be allowed to not care if they don't care.

Push-notifying war crimes would be like that time Spotify had a big pop-up ad for U2's latest garbage album and then even if you didn't give a gently caress about U2 you sure as hell hated that album and U2 after that because they wasted precious seconds of your life clicking off a pop-up while you navigated to your 1800+ song playlist full of Shibuya's best babymetal.

the white hand
Nov 12, 2016

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

TulliusCicero posted:

Glenn Greenwald...Ooh boy where to even begin. Got a rep as a "leftist" when he helped Snowden with leaking the NSA stuff, turned out to just be a right wing lolbertian who just REALLY hated Obama and immigrants. Made his own publishing website which he got kicked off of for being too loving insane. Actively defended and praised Trump in his war against the "deep state"

(Many) years ago I went to a debate that was supposed to be like libertarian vs. left perspectives against the global war on terror. Representing the right: Jacob Hornberger. Representing the left: Glenn Greenwald. During Q&A one of the guys in the audience (wearing a duster) asked about Bitcoin. Watching him work in the years since then has been completely fascinating. I just read his substack railing about Victoria Nuland's neocon plans for Ukraine.

Antillie
Mar 14, 2015

So what do people feel the odds are that some missile or two aimed at the far western edge of Ukraine will accidentally or "accidentally" overshoot and land in either Poland, Romania, Slovakia or Hungary?

Even if this did happen it would probably just land in a field somewhere. But even so...

Antillie fucked around with this message at 06:05 on Mar 14, 2022

Ashmole
Oct 5, 2008

This wish was granted by Former DILF

Antillie posted:

So what do people feel the odds are that some missile or two aimed at the far western edge of Ukraine will accidentally or "accidentally" overshoot and land in either Poland, Romania, Slovakia or Hungary?

Even if this did happen it would probably just land in a field somewhere. But even so...

I think there would be calls to "do something" but I don't think much more would happen beyond that. Some US SOF dudes killed a bunch of Wagner guys in Syria and not much came of it.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011

Antillie posted:

So what do people feel the odds are that some missile or two aimed at the far western edge of Ukraine will accidentally or "accidentally" overshoot and land in either Poland, Romania, Slovakia or Hungary?

Even if this did happen it would probably just land in a field somewhere. But even so...

It's not going to start world war 3

Mystic Mongol
Jan 5, 2007

Your life's been thrown in disarray already--I wouldn't want you to feel pressured.


College Slice

Antillie posted:

So what do people feel the odds are that some missile or two aimed at the far western edge of Ukraine will accidentally or "accidentally" overshoot and land in either Poland, Romania, Slovakia or Hungary?

Even if this did happen it would probably just land in a field somewhere. But even so...

Remember when the Russians shot down a civilian plane, killing all 398 people on board, and it basically didn't matter?

Yeah, that.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Antillie posted:

So what do people feel the odds are that some missile or two aimed at the far western edge of Ukraine will accidentally or "accidentally" overshoot and land in either Poland, Romania, Slovakia or Hungary?

Even if this did happen it would probably just land in a field somewhere. But even so...
If it came to that, please remember that Russia and the US Defense Depts set up a de-confliction line last week to screen and safeguard any accidents or escalations. It worked well in Syria. I'd have to get back to Cinci about specifics.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Antillie posted:

So what do people feel the odds are that some missile or two aimed at the far western edge of Ukraine will accidentally or "accidentally" overshoot and land in either Poland, Romania, Slovakia or Hungary?

Even if this did happen it would probably just land in a field somewhere. But even so...
This sort of already happened, didn't it? That one recon drone lost contact with base and kept flying on its vector until it ran out of gas and landed in some Slovenian(?) field?

I imagine it would be very clear if it was a missile that broke down and happened to land on Romanian clay while six other missiles hit Lviv's suburbs. I believe there is a de-escalation hotline to demand answers on things like this, but it would probably be tolerated if all it did was blow up some dirt.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Lol Russia shot like four different loving flagged vessels and nothing happened. It's kind of insane. They shot a Romanian boat a member of loving NATO.

Baronash
Feb 29, 2012

So what do you want to be called?

the popes toes posted:

Seen this floating around but unable to ascertain if it is contemporary or from years ago?

https://twitter.com/DelftXyz/status/1502779217771171841

I tend to file this poo poo in the same bin as things like Lindsey Graham calling for Putin’s assassination.

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



Antillie posted:

Who's to say that the US hasn't? I mean, we see plenty of coverage of the TB2's wrecking things. That would make excellent cover for a couple of US built terrors quietly roving around blowing stuff up.

I mean, the US probably hasn't, but hey, you never know.

The US typically doesn't like the possibility of any potential adversary (i.e. Russia) getting its hands on a downed drone and drone tech, so it's unlikely the US would provide them.

TasogareNoKagi
Jul 11, 2013

gay picnic defence posted:

If they're beam riding that would rule it out.

I wonder if it's hard to develop a system that can aim at the designated target without needing the beam riding bit. Those missiles have a range of several km so being able to paint tank after tank with a tiny laser on board an expendable drone would enable a battery of those missiles to stage an ambush with relative impunity.

Hellfires can do this, called "Lock On After Launch" mode. Launch, pop up, pitch down and start tracking.

Conspiratiorist posted:

This is would be incredibly stupid because as Ukraine is not an operator of Reapers, Russia could interpret it as the US kinetically intervening if they spotted or shot down any.

The US stopped flying the older Predators in 2018. Presumably they're all sitting in the Arizona boneyard.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep
Tulsi Gabbard acts like someone who wakes up every morning and thinks about how they can better imitate a compromised shill. It doesn't come across as accidental or intermittent, she really puts some effort into it.

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

Baronjutter posted:

I absolutely don't buy a single bit of putin's victimhood rationalizations for the invasion. If NATO hadn't allowed many former russian puppets to join they'd have been next. Any EE country not in NATO would have been bullied into entering some garbage russian-sphere organization against their will and threatened with invasion if they didn't. Russia has absolutely zero "legitimate security concerns" in this situation, only imperial ambitions. They're an arsonist holding a molotov screaming at neighbouring buildings that they need to shut off their provocative sprinkler systems and disband the aggressive expansion of the fire department. Russia has absolutely no valid concerns, only excuses. Not a single one of their grievances matters if their goal wasn't invading or dominating their neighbours. The absolute only reason a country can feel threatened by a purely defensive alliance growing around them is if they don't want to lose their ability to bully or attack said neighbours. Russia lost its "right" to imperial ambitions after the fall of the soviet union and they're not getting it back, ever.

imo this is one of those things where it's useful to be aware of the habits of a bullshitter. Bullshit isn't always false; the bullshitter mixes truth and falsehood indiscriminately. It's a means to an end for them, and if they make claims that are true it's only in service to making their lies more believable. They don't care and neither should you.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Flesnolk posted:

I saw something recently about russia blowing up a NATO airbase, how screwed are we?

If Russia attacked NATO anything, it would be a major escalation/provocation on the front page of every newspaper in the world.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
Hey guys I heard World War 3 started anyone hear anything about it?

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Despera posted:

Hey guys I heard World War 3 started anyone hear anything about it?

Nah the nukes started flying and we were all dead before we could check twitter.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011

gay picnic defence posted:

Nah the nukes started flying and we were all dead before we could check twitter.

sounds rough well keep me updated

Freudian slippers
Jun 23, 2009
US Goon shocked and appalled to find that world is a dirty, unjust place

Deteriorata posted:



A new dawn breaks in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:

I start each morning looking for this post. Thank you :)

uXs
May 3, 2005

Mark it zero!

ntan1 posted:

This is referring to Chinese public opinion. China is weird in that there is a split between two social groups: (1) an extremely uneducated huge population of folks who are up-and-rising middle class or poor who aren't very informed about international relations at large, due to the way Chinese media works and (2) extremely well off people from Shanghai, Beijing, and other major cities who are educated and want to settle down in other countries like the United States or work in China but have kids raised elsewhere if at all possible.

The upper echelons of Chinese govt. as it exists today are extremely smart and influenced by foreign education/principles, so they will well understand that the US and EU are getting closer due to this war.

Are they though? Or do we, like with certain recent Russian governments, grossly overestimate them?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

evilweasel posted:

Ironically Stalin in WWII refusing to leave Moscow is probably the closest that I can think of

Stalin was gathering fresh reserves for counter-offensive, though, and was just waiting for the right time to unleash them. He knew that Germans wouldn't make it.

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

They have their own crazy problems that you get from being a weirdass draconian propaganda-saturated state that does pretend communism and the occasional Fully Modernized Genocide(patent pending), but they are never going to be comparable to the condition of russia's mob state poo poo

Like they keep coming up on this Ukraine war thread because putin is suddenly in a position to greatly hope and ask that they will work together with them to act as an economic and import connectivity lifeline in the wake of making his country an overnight pariah state, but they're going to be nothing alike now or in ten or twenty years and china isn't going to prop them up at their own sociopolitical expense in a million years

For instance, china's government is not going to be structurally unaware of the actual capacity of its own military

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Staluigi posted:

and china isn't going to prop them up at their own sociopolitical expense in a million years

China's not going to prop them up to its determent, but I can definitely see china giving support if Russia goes into an economic collapse. The Chinese governments very good at giving various types of support to countries and having everything end up very much in it's favour.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

dr_rat posted:

China's not going to prop them up to its determent, but I can definitely see china giving support if Russia goes into an economic collapse. The Chinese governments very good at giving various types of support to countries and having everything end up very much in it's favour.

Possibly. Though a long drawn out war would most likely weaken Russia and keep the NATO and the West busy and probably less bellicose towards China. All of which are to Chinas benefit. It would be a great place to test some of their new weapon systems as well. I do not think they will go as far as sending 'volunteers', but selling the Russians some weapons highly likely.

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Dick Ripple posted:

Possibly. Though a long drawn out war would most likely weaken Russia and keep the NATO and the West busy and probably less bellicose towards China. All of which are to Chinas benefit. It would be a great place to test some of their new weapon systems as well. I do not think they will go as far as sending 'volunteers', but selling the Russians some weapons highly likely.

I don't think China would do weapons, but loans, ways around sanctions, just stuff later on to make the government not actually completes fails, if the war/ sanctions does just keep on going. And you know for that I'm sure China would like somethings from the Russian government, like mining/land purchase rights, more access for their companies, whatever. I'm sure China's got a list.

As you

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



I'd personally find it hilarious if the the long-term result of all of this is that China cripples Russia much harder with its support requirements, than what Western sanctions would have caused.

I don't know whether it'd be an overall good thing or bad thing for Russia to become a relatively inconsequential satellite of China.

Sandweed
Sep 7, 2006

All your friends are me.

TulliusCicero posted:

Tulsi Gabbard was ostensibly a democrat who loved dictators and also claimed that she thought the woke left were the bigger threat to America. Tolerated to Defended Trump

Candace Owens was an anti-gamer gater who got gaslit into being Alt-Right, said Hitler had good ideas. Another person who claims the woke left is out of control and she left them. Loves Trump

Jack Prozobiec (I think that's how you spell it, honestly the shitstain isn't worth the effort to check) is a former Navy Piss Tester who steals valor by claiming Special forces status. Pushed Pizzagate conspiracies, constantly complains about the woke Left. LOVES Trump and has been actively implicated in cyber things involving him

Glenn Greenwald...Ooh boy where to even begin. Got a rep as a "leftist" when he helped Snowden with leaking the NSA stuff, turned out to just be a right wing lolbertian who just REALLY hated Obama and immigrants. Made his own publishing website which he got kicked off of for being too loving insane. Actively defended and praised Trump in his war against the "deep state"

Coincidently, all of these goobers really denied and played down Russia's involvement in the Trump campaign. Coincidentally also played down Trump coercing Ukraine and witholding defense and military aid.

Wierd, that :thunk:

How many of them are funded by Peter Thiel?

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Jesus Christ. Putin got scammed by his own intelligence agency.
https://twitter.com/akoz33/status/1503092712593137666?s=20&t=16eKNxJyshDJp65C0tDzgw

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

We see and read here about the way the modern Russia is ran (cleptocratic fascist mob-state), the general level of incompetence and the outright lies they keep spouting on everything about the Ukraine war. And yet, every now and then comes along a goon dropping a hot take of victim blaming talking about how "Nato is responsible for this by expanding towards Russia and extending this war by giving weapons to Ukraine" and "Ukraine is responsible for this by not surrendering and now it is just getting its citizens killed, since there is no end-game and they cannot win".

Those blaming NATO seem to also quickly forget that there is an attempted "USSR, but voluntary", it is called Commonwealth of Independent States, and interestingly those who did not join it in early 90's joined Nato in the late 90's because they were done with Russia-ran show. It also hasn't stopped Russia from harassing Ukraine and Georgia with border wars; both were members to the day the Russians invaded. So yeah, Russia's shtick is the good old abusers "please come back, I love you and won't hit you anymore I promise" and "do this now and I don't have to hit you". And then you wonder why their neighbors start to run towards any defense alliance they can find? Its a victim shelter, not a capitulation towards USA.

Similarly, "Ukraine is responsible for not surrendering and getting it's citizens killed, no end game etc". Against Russia, fighting to the last is the end-game if there aren't any others. Ukraine isn't part of Russia or Russian, it is an independent country of 44 million people who chose to become independent in 1991, after being independent or self-governing first as a country in 1917-1920 and then as Soviet SR between 1920-1991. The Russian may as much as they want to say that "No, Ukraine is part of Russia" but that won't change the fact that they are not, they are independent country and what Russia is doing is invasion and an attempt of occupation. And what we have learned on proven war crimes, terror bombings and disappearing people, a very hostile one. So why should the Ukrainians "surrender to make it stop"? It would not stop, ending the armed resistance would only make it start. No-one can be naive enough to think that Russia would do anything other than what was done in Crimea; brutally replace the leaders and start doing the same for the population, and put all "trouble makers", or random people to that matter, to camps, maybe relocate them to Siberia, or coerse them to flee as refugees. Take every resource that country has and every penny they can get their hands on. The Moscow already to does this to the Russians living in the Siberian and Asian parts of the country, take a guess what it would look like towards actual second class citizens, living in the occupied country. For that matter, has Russia ever managed to occupy something in the modern era, that didn't involve war crimes and being massively hostile towards the locals? So again, why would anyone sane voluntarily let other nation do this to them? If everything else fails, fighting as long as they can buying time for Russia to fold against some unforeseen problem is the Ukrainian end game.

I know that some of these are just idiots being controversial and edgy, but those who are true believers and apologists for Vova Putin, I really despise them.

Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 09:42 on Mar 14, 2022

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



I think it's easier if you just assume that goons who wander in and start doing victim blaming, or blaming NATO, whatever else, are at best, probably slightly sympathetic to Russia due to various reasons, and at worst are simply trying to stir up poo poo and piss people in the thread off.

There's also a contingent who seriously think that dunking on Ukraine and the posters in this thread who support Ukraine, is some type of "owning the libs" nonsense, because ultimately life and its events are just one giant game to them, even if they claim otherwise, since in their own deranged way, they're keeping "score".

It's best to engage as if the posts are in good faith, but once it becomes clear that they don't seem to be in good faith, ignore them.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013


"We have wasted our annual budget on drugs and gambling so we only managed to bribe Mykola, a local drunk from Sumy. But be assured, he is going to lead the new administration as soon as our lads roll in!"

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Gervasius
Nov 2, 2010



Grimey Drawer

Antillie posted:

So what do people feel the odds are that some missile or two aimed at the far western edge of Ukraine will accidentally or "accidentally" overshoot and land in either Poland, Romania, Slovakia or Hungary?

Drone literally flew 1000 km from the war zone and crashed in middle of a NATO member capital and nothing happened.

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