|
How are u posted:They won't. Demographics and climate change are going to ensure that China doesn't rise much more than they already have.
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 21:52
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 03:34 |
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:So... is there any more clarity on why Ukraine's air force isn't flying that much? Is it mainly because there's not much utility to having planes up in the air given their positions and resources right now? Russia has fairly good air defence. You see all the drone footage because much of Russian stuff doesn’t detect the specific drone well, rather than since they don’t have stuff pointed at the sky.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 21:52
|
|
|
Conspiratiorist posted:Cope cages are a whole thing, and it's already been accepted in Wikipedia as a term for top-fixed improvised slat armor. The fact there was video of the Ukrainians testing out the "cope cage" theories before the war just makes this loving  Like the Russians had to have known they'd fail, but went with it anyway. OddObserver posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/gkates/status/1503461628179894274?cxt=HHwWhMC-kdOYr90pAAAA Even though they've blurred out the sign, the "blank white sign" is already becoming a thing among the Russian anti-war protestors, enough that the police are arresting people for just blank signs. Novaya Gazeta knows what it's doing by posting a censored image from the on-air protest. https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502761903046774786?s=20&t=lVqzQzajQlnA3ph4xN6IsQ https://twitter.com/OvdInfo/status/1497263016387117057?s=20&t=bep92nl48Lub-CFm5pU84g
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 21:52
|
|
|
Big Slammu posted:I can’t emphasize enough how hosed their air transport economy is in the short, medium, and long term. Planes need constant line maintenance and regular “heavy” checks on a scheduled basis. Part of what makes Boeing and Airbus so profitable is that they control the market for parts/licenses for parts. There are aftermarket OEM-approved parts (PMA/DER) but they are not super ubiquitous, and all of the OEM and aftermarket parts are caught up in all sanctions/export controls currently in place. Yeah if any airline goes through with seizing a plane it's hard to overstate how hosed they'll be forever lol. Not only will it only ever be able to fly in Russia, with ever decreasing maintenance standards, but they've cut themselves off from ever being able to lease a plane again. This is a bigger deal than it sounds: most Russian (and worldwide) planes are leased from giant lessor companies, lots of them based in Ireland. By seizing what they can grab hold of now, they're essentially ensuring that they're the only planes they'll ever own besides what they can build domestically. They'll have a few boeings and airbuses until they run out of parts and then I guess they'll be stuck with whatever Sukhoi can cobble together from scrap iron - they wont be able to build superjets for long because they're made with a host of western parts..
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 21:52
|
|
|
Any number coming out of china is likely to be high grade bullshit. Xi sets a quota and the quota is always met.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 21:54
|
|
|
Staluigi posted:Did these motherfuckers watch V for Vendetta and decide they wanted to adopt the aesthetic styling of the fascist antagonist regime, or did the people making that movie manage to creatively predict future fascist image aesthetic? Lol for real though
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 21:54
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:They wish for children to die via white phosphorus dude, theyd probably donate it to MLRS' without borders if they didn't give it to papa Jeff Ok MLRS without borders made me lol irl.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 21:54
|
|
|
Rolls Royce runs most of its modern turbofans on a power-by-the-hour basis. I wonder if it's even possible to run them to failure, or if a load of different isolators will cut in as soon as you cancel the direct debit. Regardless of the cause, it's bad for RR's reputation if a load of their engines start aspirating themselves so I could understand why they'd want to stop misuse.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 21:55
|
|
|
Majorian posted:I agree it's not a "sure" thing - nothing in geopolitics is. It just also strikes me as presumptuous to say, "You will live and die in a world where the United States is the overwhelmingly dominant military, cultural, and economic force," as the post I was responding to did. Given the way the past few years have gone the op and your response could both be true. Everyone look forward to waving your tiny American flags in the climate change ravaged, post nuking hellscape of 2029.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 21:55
|
|
|
Random Integer posted:Given the way the past few years have gone the op and your response could both be true. Everyone look forward to waving your tiny American flags in the climate change ravaged, post nuking hellscape of 2029. As long as my DODGE RAM PICKUP runs, I'll be good. It's got a HEMI.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 21:56
|
|
|
kemikalkadet posted:Yeah if any airline goes through with seizing a plane it's hard to overstate how hosed they'll be forever lol. Not only will it only ever be able to fly in Russia, with ever decreasing maintenance standards, but they've cut themselves off from ever being able to lease a plane again. This is a bigger deal than it sounds: most Russian (and worldwide) planes are leased from giant lessor companies, lots of them based in Ireland. By seizing what they can grab hold of now, they're essentially ensuring that they're the only planes they'll ever own besides what they can build domestically. They'll have a few boeings and airbuses until they run out of parts and then I guess they'll be stuck with whatever Sukhoi can cobble together from scrap iron - they wont be able to build superjets for long because they're made with a host of western parts.. To be fair, they won't be able to fly to the West anyway, so Russia won't need as many planes.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 21:59
|
|
|
kemikalkadet posted:By seizing what they can grab hold of now, they're essentially ensuring that they're the only planes they'll ever own besides what they can build domestically. Don't worry once they take over Ukraine they can use the Antonov plane manufacturing facilities! https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1503287751050993665?t=eDmCt8CBU8Fq3ZwvcN87lg&s=19 Wait nvm nope
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:00
|
|
|
mmkay posted:To be fair, they won't be able to fly to the West anyway, so Russia won't need as many planes. Russia has a very active domestic air traffic. Used to, anyway.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:00
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:Don't worry once they take over Ukraine they can use the Antonov plane manufacturing facilities! I guess there goes the unfinished An-225 as well.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:01
|
|
|
Ola posted:Defying the spirit of the law by obeying the letter of the law precisely. Wishful thinking perhaps, but I think someone who was working for Putin properly wouldn't show anything at all. Novaya Gazetta is famous for defying Putin, resulting in their journalists getting murdered or jailed by Putin. Obviously according to some, uhm, 'leftist' posters they should not try resisting, as that only increases suffering.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:03
|
|
|
Yeah as Kofman has tweeted, it looks like the Russian military is very deliberately now going down a target list of industry in the country and blowing it up.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:09
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:Novaya Gazetta is famous for defying Putin, resulting in their journalists getting murdered or jailed by Putin. Obviously according to some, uhm, 'leftist' posters they should not try resisting, as that only increases suffering. My brain broke defending the side that bombs hospitals.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:12
|
|
|
Interesting thread about qnon origin of Ukrainian "biolabs" https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1503434867614228480
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:16
|
|
|
ranbo das posted:https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1503458523874828289 Russia is really just flailing about now. What's the long term strategy here? Pull a Cuba and cannibalize the planes for parts until the sanctions end a decade or three from now? I have more faith in Ukraine surviving than Russia at this point.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:17
|
|
|
Is there some sort of list of Russian brands/companies we could or should be boycotting? My dad's already stopped pumping gas at filling stations owned by Lukoil.Alchenar posted:Yeah as Kofman has tweeted, it looks like the Russian military is very deliberately now going down a target list of industry in the country and blowing it up. God Russia is almost cartoonishly evil
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:19
|
|
|
MadJackal posted:Russia is really just flailing about now. What's the long term strategy here? Pull a Cuba and cannibalize the planes for parts until the sanctions end a decade or three from now? Russia's domestic fleet will consist of an amazing collection of customized Ford Trimotors.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:19
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:Russia has a very active domestic air traffic. Used to, anyway. They still are going to! Now they can cannibalize parts from the stolen planes to keep their domestic flights operating... for I don't know, months? A year? Let's say several years because they're going to ignore normal regulations. It's going to be a problem once all those spares wear out, though. It's a long way from Vladivostok to St. Petersburg by train. Maybe they will reverse engineer some parts, but I wouldn't take the risk of flying Russian airlines...
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:20
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:Novaya Gazetta is famous for defying Putin, resulting in their journalists getting murdered or jailed by Putin. Obviously according to some, uhm, 'leftist' posters they should not try resisting, as that only increases suffering. It is sad to see people claiming the mantel of the revolutionary left call for surrender to an imperialist regime. Marx would not be proud of them, nor would any of the old Russian Social Democratic Labour Party from the age of imperialism. They would have seen in Putin a Tsarist regime resurgent, and probably been either agitating the revolution on the streets of Moscow or sabotaging the war effort by any means. Supporting imperialst war was what broke the second international. and yet here we have socialist again playing stooges for imperialists. Lenin, who they adimre so much, would have had them thrown from the International head first.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:21
|
|
|
I’ll join the chorus of voices about the plane seizures being a tremendously stupid act. There’s NOTHING to be gained, everything to be lost. This shows how poor a leader Putin is.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:22
|
|
|
The way this war goes, expect Russia to increase the pressure on western democratic elections with around 10 000%. Putin really needs the winner of 2024 to be Trump or someone equally subservient.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:22
|
|
|
Someone who is a plane poster please provide a breakdown of how long they can run with 500 planes as spare parts.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:23
|
|
|
Mokotow posted:I’ll join the chorus of voices about the plane seizures being a tremendously stupid act. There’s NOTHING to be gained, everything to be lost. This shows how poor a leader Putin is. I mean, it seems like there's definitely something to be gained: Planes. I'll agree it seems extremely shortsighted, though.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:23
|
|
|
BigglesSWE posted:The way this war goes, expect Russia to increase the pressure on western democratic elections with around 10 000%.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:24
|
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:So... is there any more clarity on why Ukraine's air force isn't flying that much? Is it mainly because there's not much utility to having planes up in the air given their positions and resources right now? There are a couple of reasons. The first is they just aren't needed much right now. Much of the fighting is on the ground with tanks and artiliery which they can attack with their TB2 drones easier and more safely. Most of the Ukrainian Air Force is based in A2A fighters, the MIG-29 and Su-27. They have a handful of Su-24s and 25s but in the areas where they would be most useful right now; North of Kyiv and in the East they would no doubt be in range of Russian Anti-Air defenses based in Belarus and Russia. It is better to hold them back in case you desperately need them either for a defensive role or if you run out of TB2s. The other scenario is if the Russians are beaten more and the AA threat is lessened you might see CAS missions happen more but again there isn't a pressing need as long as they have TB2s in the air.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:25
|
|
|
Grouchio posted:With what soft power left? It just evaporated last month. Yeah, they'd have to go 10000% to just get back to where they were 5 years ago.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:25
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:Is there some sort of list of Russian brands/companies we could or should be boycotting? My dad's already stopped pumping gas at filling stations owned by Lukoil. The true darling Government of the Chuds yup, makes perfect sense Can't actually win a straight up fight, so now we are at terrorizing and blowing everything up out of spite. Wierd how they don't seem worried about hitting those dangerous Biolabs... 
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:26
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:Is there some sort of list of Russian brands/companies we could or should be boycotting? My dad's already stopped pumping gas at filling stations owned by Lukoil. Nothing meaningful. If you want to vote with your buck donate to MSF.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:26
|
|
|
BigglesSWE posted:The way this war goes, expect Russia to increase the pressure on western democratic elections with around 10 000%. The new sanctions hosed that up, plus everybody in the west now knows who is most likely favored by Putin to win. Of course Western liberal democracies are loving decorum poisoned idiots, so it's a wash.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:28
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:They still are going to! Now they can cannibalize parts from the stolen planes to keep their domestic flights operating... for I don't know, months? A year? Let's say several years because they're going to ignore normal regulations. It's going to be a problem once all those spares wear out, though. It's a long way from Vladivostok to St. Petersburg by train. Maybe they will reverse engineer some parts, but I wouldn't take the risk of flying Russian airlines... Probably going to be a moot issue when no one in Russia has money to spend on flying. And I'm guessing most Russian's would rather emigrate by land to Europe than by air to anywhere that still let's them fly in.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:28
|
|
|
Grouchio posted:With what soft power left? It just evaporated last month. The way I see it, Putin is banking big time on the rest of the world needing Russia more than they are willing to keep these big rear end sanctions in place. If not that, he'll send out his hacker minions to sow discontent wherever they can, I suppose.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:30
|
|
|
the popes toes posted:Interesting thread about qnon origin of Ukrainian "biolabs" Had no idea the American right was shifting on the Ukraine-war but I'm not surprised, they do love their strong men.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:30
|
|
|
Yeah I can't get behind "What soft power" when they have incredibly popular pundits, senators, major presidential candidates, willing idiots, fringes are too influential in this dumbass flat earther country.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:31
|
|
|
Kamrat posted:Had no idea the American right was shifting on the Ukraine-war but I'm not surprised, they do love their strong men. Shifting? They've been pro-Putin since day one. Alex Jones has quadrupled down on it, to give one example.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:32
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/JamOladyi/status/1503133159264862216?s=19 That's a lot of loving words to say almost nothing KingColliwog posted:I think it's clearly both. Setting aside how vague 'we' is, the easiest, cheapest, and least economically destructive thing would've been to let Russia do what they want and impose no sanctions. I think you underestimate how much people just really don't want to see an authoritarian mafia state take over a democracy with broadly European values. Concerned Citizen posted:i personally do not think the invasion of ukraine would have ever happened if we had decided not to enlarge nato. any hopes of maintaining the rapprochement between the west and russia were effectively erased by the decision to offer a bunch of countries, essentially, security guarantees for bases. there was no rational reason to offer those countries guarantees other than as a check on russia, so it was (correctly) interpreted as a hostile action designed to degrade russia's security. and that then proceeded to embolden russian hardliners who saw this as clear-cut evidence that the west had no intention of ever allowing russia to become powerful or successful again. This is bullshit, credulous acceptance of putin's various lies about the reason for the invasion. If anything all this proves is that those countries were right to want NATO membership. Shageletic posted:Cool. To me it seems like you are basically incapable of reading current events except as through the lens of the unquestionable perfidy and evil intentions of the US Even when that happens, it really won't diminish the US' role in the world in any instant way. China's economy is already enormous, but they're an authoritarian state with a unique, difficult language and who don't produce media popular across the entire world. Fellow democratic countries will also bloc with the US Mulva posted:So your counter to my claim was a thing that is probably not actually going to happen due to the massive, massive loving flaws riddling the entire economy of China? It is gonna happen. Just depends on how long but it will happen. And that's fine, international economics doesn't have to be a pure dick-measuring contest Young Freud posted:Even though they've blurred out the sign, the "blank white sign" is already becoming a thing among the Russian anti-war protestors, enough that the police are arresting people for just blank signs. Novaya Gazeta knows what it's doing by posting a censored image from the on-air protest. Yeah there was a clip earlier of a woman getting arrested for a tiny sign (literally a flash card) which apparently just read 'two words'.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:32
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 03:34 |
|
|
Chalks posted:I'd love to know if a leasing company could sue a bank that's holding some of Russia's foreign currency reserves claiming they are entitled to the cost of those aircraft. Hedge funds tried this with Argentina's central bank and lost in US court. That said, the US Congress is angry enough with Russia you might see some movement here. There will have to be a discussion at some point about how much to punish Russia after this is all over. They're already looking at an extended recovery for their economy, if energy prices don't stay elevated they're going to have serious problems. The sort of broad based sanctions and reparations you'll likely see discussed will have echoes of the Treaty of Versailles. To what extent does the world want to bury Russia, and how will a populace largely insulated from the reasoning and logic of it respond.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 22:33
|
|