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Der Kyhe posted:Unfortunate fact however is, that the 80's/early 90's Soviet gear is still adequate enough against anyone not-USA if they are used in sufficient numbers. Those craptastic T72's, BMPs and such still take AT-weapon such as Javelin each to kill, and they are in limited supply unless you are backed by Nato. Seeming like a bigger and bigger "If" at this point
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Mar 21, 2022 12:47
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Russian troops firing at protesting civilians in Kherson. https://twitter.com/shcherbininainn/status/1505871639074029570 https://twitter.com/shcherbininainn/status/1505871334143889414
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Mar 21, 2022 12:47
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Alchenar posted:Yeah 10 million refugees and burning down the second largest country in Europe in a brual attritional war is not a paper tiger. Fortunately neither was Russia.
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Mar 21, 2022 12:48
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Alchenar posted:Also it's been posted a number of times in this thread before but we are having the conversation again so bears repeating: in the first week of the war Russia did not fight according to doctrine and tripped up over its own feet assuming it could seize Ukraine by storm and not have to seriously fight. The second week of the war consisted of trying to fix the mess from the first week, and the third week has consisted of reorentation and reorganisation (in broad strokes, recognising that different things are happening in different theatres). The Russian armed forces are a real threat. They have nuclear weapons. Otherwise, they would be literally no threat at all to NATO—relatively speaking. If it weren’t for nuclear weapons the Russians do not even have the capacity to make NATO break a sweat militarily.
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Mar 21, 2022 12:52
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Go tell the Estonians and Latvians and Lithuanians that they have nothing to worry about because Russia can only sustain an advance 140km from the border. e: a short thread https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1505811577152356354 Alchenar fucked around with this message at 12:58 on Mar 21, 2022 |
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Mar 21, 2022 12:55
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BoldFace posted:Russian troops firing at protesting civilians in Kherson. loving hell. What a change from yesterday. Are these the fresh troops "rotated in" or am I thinking of a different city with protests.
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Mar 21, 2022 12:56
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https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1505843869707116547 (excerpts from thread below:) https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1505845102811533313 https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1505846407617466371 https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1505847103666495490 
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Mar 21, 2022 12:57
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CSM posted:Being subject to unprecedented sanctions and a proxy war through Ukraine, isn't "getting away with it". This is not a proxy war. Russia invaded Ukraine. This not a civil war, nor is this a remotely symmetrical conflict. There are no valid reasons for the invasion at all. Large-scale war crimes are being committed openly. Russia absolutely is "getting away with it". The only thing preventing a coalition intervening and dragging the regime before the Hague is the nuclear deterrent.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:11
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It takes serious divorce from reality to consider North Stream pipes as something that Poland should be somehow for, when they were designed with a specific idea to bypass Poland. Also this sounds like something written directly to Konfederacja dudes, the lovely group of right wing market libertarians that loves to hate Ukrainians. Comedy option - Medvedev proposes handling over Tupolev wreckage 12 years after the accident in exchange for something.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:12
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medvedev is such a bitch
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Mar 21, 2022 13:14
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Der Kyhe posted:Unfortunate fact however is, that the 80's/early 90's Soviet gear is still adequate enough against anyone not-USA if they are used in sufficient numbers. Those craptastic T72's, BMPs and such still take AT-weapon such as Javelin each to kill, and they are in limited supply unless you are backed by Nato.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:15
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Nenonen posted:It's fitting, as groznyi means terrible. дуже схожий на ваш пост
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Mar 21, 2022 13:15
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PederP posted:This is not a proxy war. Russia invaded Ukraine. This not a civil war, nor is this a remotely symmetrical conflict. There are no valid reasons for the invasion at all. Large-scale war crimes are being committed openly. Russia absolutely is "getting away with it". The only thing preventing a coalition intervening and dragging the regime before the Hague is the nuclear deterrent. He argued that NATO is currently proxy warring in ukraine, and correctly so. Russia is fighting a conventional war against Ukraine, NATO is proxyfighting russia through Ukraine. A full-on symmetric proxy war for both sides would be ”belarus” attacking Ukraine and each block supporting their candidate. And Yes, NATO should just stop diddling around the sidelines and intervene directly.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:16
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what if you give some polish fighter pilots ukrainian passports, donate their planes to the ukrainian air force so they are not technically nato pilots anymore, and then give them their original nationalities back after the war is over?
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Mar 21, 2022 13:20
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BoldFace posted:Russian troops firing at protesting civilians in Kherson. Kherson is gonna go to hell real quick if the UA is able to get closer and closer eventually. hell. your already seeing Ukrainians kill collaborators and probably isolated Russians troops. ummel posted:loving hell. What a change from yesterday. Are these the fresh troops "rotated in" or am I thinking of a different city with protests. UA is apperently sorta near kherson still and the folks in the city have been protesting non stop and occasionally shooting collaborator leaders.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:20
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Man Plan Canal posted:https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1505843869707116547 "If we insult them enough, they won't support Ukraine"  This won't backfire at all!
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Mar 21, 2022 13:21
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Shibawanko posted:what if you give some polish fighter pilots ukrainian passports, donate their planes to the ukrainian air force so they are not technically nato pilots anymore, and then give them their original nationalities back after the war is over? I mean if you are just going to go full Korea then a Polish army formation should just be declared a "volunteer army" and sent into Ukraine.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:21
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Shibawanko posted:what if you give some polish fighter pilots ukrainian passports, donate their planes to the ukrainian air force so they are not technically nato pilots anymore, and then give them their original nationalities back after the war is over? One weird trick. Russian MoD hates it!!!
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Mar 21, 2022 13:23
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ummel posted:One weird trick. Russian MoD hates it!!! Russian MoD has been known to have people go on vacation with their tanks.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:24
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Valtonen posted:He argued that NATO is currently proxy warring in ukraine, and correctly so. Russia is fighting a conventional war against Ukraine, NATO is proxyfighting russia through Ukraine. I disagree on both counts: Ukraine is receiving aid from some individual member states not from NATO itself. Ukraine would continue defending itself regardless of NATO stance. NATO also did not instigate this war in any way. The US is certainly exerting political influence and support on the situation - but that is not equivalent to NATO - and the US have done the opposite of engaging in proxy warfare, by clearly stating prior to the invasion that they would not intervene. They also publicly revealed the invasion plans and tried to dissuade the invasion. Also there are no blocks. There is a Russian aggressor and Ukrainian sovereign state. Europe is not a vassal of the US, and NATO is not a bloc - it is a defensive alliance. NATO includes Hungary, which is friendly towards Russia, and Turkey, which is an independent regional power on par with Russia. NATO should not intervene. It is a defensive alliance and thus there is no mandate for such interventions. I strongly believe the nations of Europe should intervene directly, but as a coalition independent of NATO and without US participation. Having the US involved would be a threat to global security, would undermine the stability of post-war Eastern Europe and would likely be unacceptable to China.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:30
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:I feel like all these thinktanks and scaremongers only exaggerated Russian military prowess so to justify their own increased spending. It worked before. The MiG-25 scared the entire west into spending billions more, when they finally got one from a defector they found it was dogshit. I think that's part of it but I'm not sure all of it is so cynical. The risks of underestimating enemy capabilities are extremely high, and the risks of overestimating capabilities are low. Take the MiG-25 - its capabilities were wildly overestimated, which resulted in the F-15 being an absolute world-beater of an air superiority fighter. If analysts underestimate capabilities, the consequences are far higher. During the Anglo-German naval arms race leading up to WWI, the Germans underestimated the capabilities of the new Invincible class, and so laid down an incremental design in response that was obsolete as soon as it was launched. Hell, in this war, the consequences of the FSB underestimating Ukrainian capabilities and morale means that some of those guys are in jail or shot. Better to overestimate your enemy to a reasonable extent, and pop champagne when you're proven wrong, than underestimate them and end up with personal consequences.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:30
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i still think that a direct intervention is far too dangerous
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Mar 21, 2022 13:39
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Shibawanko posted:i still think that a direct intervention is far too dangerous I'm still one hundred billion percent against it but as this war drags out so lividly I am more prepared for the possibility. A lot of people really don't want to sit on the sidelines and russia looking weak may encourage the idea that they won't or can't bluff on nuclear deterrence if, say, Poland enters the war to defend Ukrainian territory
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Mar 21, 2022 13:43
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Shibawanko posted:i still think that a direct intervention is far too dangerous Yeah, honestly I thought this was completely self-evident. It certainly is to the likes of Biden, Stoltenberg, and Scholz who have access to the relevant conflict modeling, war games and intelligence.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:44
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PederP posted:This is not a proxy war. Russia invaded Ukraine. This not a civil war, nor is this a remotely symmetrical conflict. There are no valid reasons for the invasion at all. Large-scale war crimes are being committed openly. Russia absolutely is "getting away with it". The only thing preventing a coalition intervening and dragging the regime before the Hague is the nuclear deterrent. Russia is "getting away with it" a lot less than when previous superpowers invaded and bombed countries to hell. As in: USA-Iraq for example. Sadly there's little that can definitively stop a nuclear power. At least what's happening now will hopefully set a future precedent, including against NATO countries. CSM fucked around with this message at 13:55 on Mar 21, 2022 |
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Mar 21, 2022 13:48
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PerilPastry posted:Yeah, honestly I thought this was completely self-evident. It certainly is to the likes of Biden, Stoltenberg, and Scholz who have access to the relevant conflict modeling, war games and intelligence. Judging by what is going on this is a fluid process and a number of those models and intelligence is getting a thorough re-evaluation based on the Russian performance so far. You can go to war with a bold step, Angry face and middle finger extended towards kremlin, or tippytoe with increasing amounts of assistance and sanctions until at some point you realized you are pouring dogshit into Putins shoes and giggling. Currently we are choosing this route.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:50
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Randarkman posted:I mean if you are just going to go full Korea then a Polish army formation should just be declared a "volunteer army" and sent into Ukraine. Just send them in unmarked and pretend to be confused about where they came from, the perfectly symmetrical response.
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Mar 21, 2022 13:56
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I think that's part of it but I'm not sure all of it is so cynical. The risks of underestimating enemy capabilities are extremely high, and the risks of overestimating capabilities are low. Take the MiG-25 - its capabilities were wildly overestimated, which resulted in the F-15 being an absolute world-beater of an air superiority fighter. If analysts underestimate capabilities, the consequences are far higher. During the Anglo-German naval arms race leading up to WWI, the Germans underestimated the capabilities of the new Invincible class, and so laid down an incremental design in response that was obsolete as soon as it was launched. Furthermore, the analysts are looking at the numbers and the math, and not, almost definitionally, at intangibles like morale or politics or economics. I think this is one of the big splits between the professional and amateur analysts of this conflict. Then professionals are looking at the situation on the ground and going "if these trends continue, then . . ." The amateurs are looking at the same trend lines and going "this poo poo can't continue like this, there's gonna have to be a collapse . . . here, or here, or here . . ."
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Mar 21, 2022 13:56
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Very important news on Kyiv front. Ukraine appears to be near re-opening the E40 highway, which is a crucial route between Lviv and Kyiv. https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1505876628823588867
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Mar 21, 2022 13:58
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I interrupt interventionist Clancywank to confirm that Belarus didn’t invade this morning. Again.
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Mar 21, 2022 14:00
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Jeza posted:One of the most surprising things about this whole war for me was how at the start, lots of people could not shut up about how advanced and intimidating the Russian military was, and how shocked they were to find out that it was not the case. In fairness if anyone ever submitted an intelligence report that said the enemy would be as incompetent as Russia has been they'd be fired and sent for a psych eval. It's fundamentally bad strategy to assume your enemy is completely inept.
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Mar 21, 2022 14:02
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CSM posted:A proxy war as in: outside forces are arming Ukraine and providing it with intelligence to fight the Russians. A proxy war requires more than this - a proxy also needs to act on behalf of another power. Their impetus to engage in war should be fully or mostly contingent on outside influence. When considering the defender, this is even more pertinent. An invader may be a proxy if armed and encouraged. This is obviously not the case for the defender in an unlawful war. Also NATO is not arming Ukraine nor providing intelligence. (Some) individual member nations are. The only part NATO is playing is to repeatedly state that they will not intervene to defend Ukraine against this aggression. This war is a war of conquest by Russia against Ukraine. There are no other parties to this war. Except Belarus which is a limited co-belligerent to Russia. Naming this a proxy war serves merely to deflect from the aggression, violation of international law and war crimes committed by Russia. It is a misguided notion at best - and propagandistic misdirection for the benefit of a fascist expansionist regime at worst.
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Mar 21, 2022 14:03
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Szmitten posted:I interrupt interventionist Clancywank to confirm that Belarus didn’t invade this morning. Again. I'm starting to suspect Batka has his army doing donuts in the Pripyat to keep them busy and make it look like he's contributing to the Russian war effort.
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Mar 21, 2022 14:05
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Man Plan Canal posted:https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1505843869707116547 On behalf of the 40 milion of us here in Poland - gently caress him hard. We equate the Soviet occupation to Nazi occupation because it is equal and maybe even worse in some places. Yes, our nations were close but all those ties were severed clean by the USSR which decided to puppeteer/conquer all of it's neighbours, praying on the fact that we were loving devastated by WWII. rear end in a top hat.
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Mar 21, 2022 14:05
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PederP posted:A proxy war requires more than this - a proxy also needs to act on behalf of another power. Which I suspect almost never happens, and goes into my belief that a lot of IR commentary is quite racist, focusing on big powers rather than the people primarily affected.
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Mar 21, 2022 14:05
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Szmitten posted:I interrupt interventionist Clancywank to confirm that Belarus didn’t invade this morning. Again. i mean i dont think they will until putin gets pissed and "replaces" luka and even that just ends with some sort of horror show in belarus. Hieronymous Alloy posted:Furthermore, the analysts are looking at the numbers and the math, and not, almost definitionally, at intangibles like morale or politics or economics. well sudden collapse is very rarely "sudden" but yeah. i think at this point its just which dominos falls first and does it push the others over quickly or slowly.
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Mar 21, 2022 14:06
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Szmitten posted:I interrupt interventionist Clancywank to confirm that Belarus didn’t invade this morning. Again. BREAKING: Belarus has joined the fight, expect to invade as soon as tomorrow
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Mar 21, 2022 14:06
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Valtonen posted:You can go to war with a bold step, Angry face and middle finger extended towards kremlin, or tippytoe with increasing amounts of assistance and sanctions until at some point you realized you are pouring dogshit into Putins shoes and giggling. Currently we are choosing this route. I disagree. Biden and NATO's position has been very consistent, and as the whole MiG debacle suggests they are very keen to maintain the guardrails preventing direct conflict. Valtonen posted:Judging by what is going on this is a fluid process and a number of those models and intelligence is getting a thorough re-evaluation based on the Russian performance so far. BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:BREAKING: Belarus has joined the fight, expect to invade as soon as tomorrow Can someone recommend a primer article or decent twitter thread on Lukashenko and Belarus in the context of this conflict? PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 14:11 on Mar 21, 2022 |
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Mar 21, 2022 14:07
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Kikas posted:On behalf of the 40 milion of us here in Poland - gently caress him hard. It's darkly hilarious how it's just treated as a total mystery by some people why so many central & eastern European countries ran to NATO the nanosecond the Iron Curtain went down. "Gosh, what can possibly explain this behavior after 45 years of being under the thumb of a hostile foreign power?" 
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Mar 21, 2022 14:10
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Corporate would like you to tell the difference between these two pictures 
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