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CommieGIR posted:Worth noting: The Javelin is designed to bypass reactive armor anyways, it has an initial charge to 'blow' the reactive armor and then the second charge go through the steel armor underneath I've heard weird stories about Middle East tank platoon commanders that took ERA blocks off their subordinates vehicles and did a double layer. Would that work against those tandem warheads?
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Mar 21, 2022 16:55
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Concerned Citizen posted:I have seen exactly one. Wow, it seems to be flying so haphazardly at first and then it just hits right on the target. I know nothing how these things work. Is it one of those missiles with guided targeting we keep hearing about or, instead, how these things have to be specifically aimed by the soldiers in the field?
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Mar 21, 2022 16:55
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because someone is getting killed
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KitConstantine posted:Holy poo poo a more detailed post from the US defense official background briefing 60% is operable, which doesn't mean the remaining 40% is lost, just that they can't get them online with current capabilities. Air force can erode really fast even under ideal circumstances, modern jets are notoriously demanding of heavy maintenance.
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Mar 21, 2022 16:56
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Phlegmish posted:Did Russia really have such a big economy to begin with, though? The comparison I've heard a few times now is that their economy is (was?) the size of that of the Benelux. Agreed that they're going to struggle to fund more military adventures, regardless. Yeah, their GDP in 2021 was basically the same as those three countries combined. In fairness, though, Netherlands and Belgium have moderately large economies of their own, and growth has been sluggish at best for Russia over the past few years. Obviously that's only going to get worse going forward.
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Mar 21, 2022 16:57
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Tomn posted:You know, this is why I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of "rational choice" theory for international relations. Just as a technical matter- perfect information is not a prerequisite for rational choice theory plogo fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Mar 21, 2022 |
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Mar 21, 2022 16:58
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alex314 posted:I've heard weird stories about Middle East tank platoon commanders that took ERA blocks off their subordinates vehicles and did a double layer. Would that work against those tandem warheads? I don't know, but I'd suspect if the first block blows, the second one will as well. That'd be something I'd have to see evidence for it working to believe. steinrokkan posted:60% is operable, which doesn't mean the remaining 40% is lost, just that they can't get them online with current capabilities. Air force can erode really fast even under ideal circumstances, modern jets are notoriously demanding of heavy maintenance. So one thing to keep in mind: 60% of the ASSETS maybe, that doesn't mean 60% are ready to fly. In the USAF we were happy if we could maintain 85-90% of our fleet mission ready, given Russia's issues with maintenance, if they are able to keep 75% of that 60% ready for missions, that'd be an excellent rate. I'd be willing to bet half of that 60% at best is mission ready at any one time.
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Mar 21, 2022 16:58
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go play outside Skyler posted:When you think about it, perfectly in line with their "never-ending war crimes" strategy. Just send 16-year olds to the war and force Ukrainian people to kill them. It's a good way to gently caress with their morale. As any libertarian can tell you a 16 year old can easily look 18
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Mar 21, 2022 16:59
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KitConstantine posted:Holy poo poo a more detailed post from the US defense official background briefing That number probably also includes aircraft that have been cycled out for maintenance (including battle damage,) not strictly battlefield losses.
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Mar 21, 2022 16:59
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The ruble has been doing bad for a long time so Russia's GDP nominal looks worse than its real size. By PPP they're the 6th largest economy, which is a better measure of their military potential
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Mar 21, 2022 17:00
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Concerned Citizen posted:Kind of an aside, but noted this: Literal T-72 Clancy chat. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLCJ4qMNKug&t=1310s
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Mar 21, 2022 17:00
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Tomn posted:You know, this is why I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of "rational choice" theory for international relations. There is no "fixed" rationality, and states can learn the wrong lesson. France after WWI thought offensive operations were impossible and based its strategy around it. This didn't just affect tactics, but also strategic thought as they believed an intervention in say, 1936, would have been too costly.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:01
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Majorian posted:Yeah, their GDP in 2021 was basically the same as those three countries combined. In fairness, though, Netherlands and Belgium have moderately large economies of their own, and growth has been sluggish at best for Russia over the past few years. Obviously that's only going to get worse going forward. Yeah. It's GDP in nominal terms, not PPP (purchasing power parity), but that factoid still struck me when I heard it. They just don't have a lot of economic margin.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:01
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Wistful of Dollars posted:Literal T-72 Clancy chat. well i guess we know why he wore sunglasses. he looks like the bastard child of rodney dangerfield. anyway. yeah the t72 is loving nuts. pretty sure it ripped peoples arms off when the turrent moved.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:02
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KitConstantine posted:Holy poo poo a more detailed post from the US defense official background briefing The Russian AF has been on a loop this whole war between: 1. Russian Army is angry and demands more support. 2. AF increases sortie tempo and takes more risks to get the job done. 3. Spike in losses to air defenses. 4. AF gets scared back into playing safe. 5. Go to 1.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:04
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Saoshyant posted:Wow, it seems to be flying so haphazardly at first and then it just hits right on the target. I know nothing how these things work. Is it one of those missiles with guided targeting we keep hearing about or, instead, how these things have to be specifically aimed by the soldiers in the field? The javelin is guided, yes. It uses a small initial charge to get the rocket away from the user so its main engine doesn't kill him when it ignites, which is why javelin launches always look kind of funny for a second.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:07
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Phlegmish posted:Yeah. It's GDP in nominal terms, not PPP (purchasing power parity), but that factoid still struck me when I heard it. They just don't have a lot of economic margin. It's even worse when you consider that the Benelux states actually have very sophisticated, competitive and diversified economies while Russia is only equal to them due to fossil fuels and other resources extraction.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:07
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GABA ghoul posted:It's even worse when you consider that the Benelux states actually have very sophisticated, competitive and diversified economies while Russia is only equal to them due to fossil fuels and other resources extraction. Yeah Russia could be an extremely rich country if it chose to.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:09
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mobby_6kl posted:I guess I missed when this kicked off but Japan should just take them then the kuril islands (and sakhalin) are inhabited mostly by russian and siberian fishermen and stuff who dont have much to do with moscow directly or seemingly want to. japan claiming them would be no better than russia claiming crimea. the real reason japan wants them "back" is to gain easy fishing access to the okhotsk sea
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Mar 21, 2022 17:09
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Comedy post (not *really* but lol) https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1505654899777937413
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Mar 21, 2022 17:10
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Zephro posted:Yeah, and it's standard online Discourse™ to swing between extremes. Either Russia is a terrifying Goliath that no-one has a chance against, or they're a ludicrous paper tiger that can be chased out of Kyiv by a couple of babushkas throwing turnips at them. All the Ukrainian-farmer memes just fuel it. The Russian Air Forces inability to conduct massed operations, or to even achieve air superiority over Ukraine tells you all you need to know. If there were ever a shooting conventional war between NATO and Russia, the Russian armed forces and ability to wage war would be reduced to that of Iraq in the First Gulf War. NATO would immediately establish air supremacy and then systematically destroy the Russians ability to deploy what working firepower they have. NATO could walk over the Russian Armed Forces with, I suspect, very few losses. I would guess less than 1,000 KIA for NATO forces. Maybe significantly less. This is one of the reasons why Russia’s embarrassment is so dangerous—Putin can very clearly see his conventional armed forces is no real deterrent at all to NATO. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 21, 2022 17:11
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Alchenar posted:Yeah Russia could be an extremely rich country if it chose to.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:12
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PerilPastry posted:This guy is overselling the Danish position and likely that of the other governments as well I'd i imagine. The Danish government has stated only that they would be willing to contribute to a peacekeeping mission if the situation should warrant it and a request was made by the UN or a similar body, and just about every political party has completely ruled out direct intervention. As far as Denmark is concerned our minister of defense is - at most - entertaining a hypothetical of a peacekeeping force deployed with the acceptance of both Ukraine and Russia way down the line when there actually is a peace for such a force to help keep.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:13
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KitConstantine posted:Also the Ukrainians haven't given up on the city, at least from this statement, but they wouldn't be likely to say if they have.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:13
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This is a nice photo (actual remark: geopolitics is one thing, but personal relationships really matter as well) https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1505938656984502275/photo/1 Alchenar fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Mar 21, 2022 |
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Mar 21, 2022 17:13
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Some tanks stuff since this thread loves exploding T-72s The latest(delivered during the last 3 years?) russian MBTs have 2 layers of side ERAs. The milk carton looking 4S24 is the one pictured above, and the 4S23 is the usual flat ERA. 4S24 was originally developed for light vehicles like the BMP 3 to reduce possible damage to the vehicle from activation. But they supposedly don't trigger any ERA behind it, so now the newest russian tanks have both ERA units. This combined package is supposedly effective against tandem ATGMs. But they are only for sides, and top ERAs are still just one layer.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:15
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Well well well isn't this interesting. If this is leaking I'm gonna assume they're either already in Ukraine or just over the border in Poland. https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1505939957415919622?s=20&t=Ud_POoDti-LC1UY8-BHcCQ Article link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sending-soviet-air-defense-systems-it-secretly-acquired-to-ukraine-11647878422 Excerpt: quote:The U.S. is sending some of the Soviet-made air defense equipment it secretly acquired decades ago to bolster the Ukrainian military as it seeks to fend off Russian air and missile attacks, U.S. officials said.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:15
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ZombieLenin posted:The Russian Air Forces inability to conduct massed operations, or to even achieve air superiority over Ukraine tells you all you need to know. However, I get the vibe that Putin seriously expects for realsies that NATO's going to jump on his dick and reclaim Kaliningrad or something. My impression of European mood is, even absent nuclear weapons, that is not the case.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:16
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ummel posted:Comedy post weird spin on Ugly bastard boss but lol.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:17
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SYSV Fanfic posted:Japan had already said they would consider it the same as an act of war. The US government 100% knew what would happen as a result of the sanctions. Reading about the dark valley period, I think the US was correct in the assessment that allowing Japan any more time to empower itself would lead to an even costlier conflict later. Most of the leadership was on a fanatical crusade for the glory of a man-god. Not just to motivate the troops, many of them were absolute shinto devotees. So I'm going to have to push back on this - I'd have to take some time to double-check my sources, but as far as I'm aware there is a historical consensus that "sanctions = war" was absolutely not a done deal, even within the Japanese government itself, nevermind the US government. Eri Hotta's "Japan 1941: Countdown to Infamy" is particularly scathing on this point - a great deal of trouble existed because of intense, vicious Army/Navy rivalry in which neither side was willing to back down and look weak in front of the other, so the Army might privately say that actually the war in China is kinda going badly anyways and it's hard to see an out, while the Navy might privately say that actually fighting a war with the US is probably going to end very badly, but in actual decision conferences the Army would insist that the sacrifices of their brothers in China must be justified only by total victory which will happen any day soon you guys really, while the Navy would insist that of COURSE the Navy is both able and willing to stand up to the American aggressor if need be! Which in turn translated to highly bellicose diplomatic language couched with subtle peace feelers elsewhere. The leadership was absolutely not motivated by some fanatic ideal of glory and devotion to the Emperor in real terms whatever they said in public - rather, if anything, the individual decision-makers were motivated by the desire not to be embarrassed by having to back down either individually, as a service, or as a nation. Nor in some cases could this be easily blamed because high-ranking officials who spoke too loudly about even the possibility of peace were liable to be assassinated by ultranationalist junior officers who had a considerably less nuanced and informed view of international relations. This was, perhaps relevantly to the current discussion, also underlined with the fear of of losing their empire (not Japan, but their colonial holdings) - it was commonly (though not universally) believed that Japanese prosperity and power relied on them having an empire, that its loss would cripple Japan and leave it the plaything of the great powers, and that a failure to come to a victorious war in China due to American sanctions would see the loss of their empire and their eventual subjugation by Western great powers - keep in mind that Japan since the Meiji Restoration had been extremely motivated by the salutary example of China next door during the age of European imperialism. In the mind of many military decision-makers (who held real power and who could not be easily checked by civilian leadership), Japan had to expand to keep pace with rival empires, or it would die either a slow or a quick death. The sanctions led to a toxic countdown on this, as the Japanese military was constantly burning oil with every day they remained engaged in operations, and the military both Army and Navy believed that if they did not commit to war at a certain date, past the point of no return they would no longer have oil enough to wage successful operations, giving the Japanese empire no choice but to back down - and thus making it a "do or die" point that the question of war or peace HAD to be settled by. Also relevantly, I'm not aware that any consensus exists that the US and FDR ABSOLUTELY thought that the sanctions would lead to inevitable war with Japan. The books I have are more focused on Japanese internal decision-making, but from what I recall there was in general a lack of US understanding of how existential an issue Japan thought it faced, a belief that sanctions would be punishing but not enough to trigger war. There certainly wasn't any awareness of Japan's internal deadline for war or peace, or any idea of why Japanese diplomats were so eager to reach a quick deal which from the US point of view constantly ignored what they felt were important foundational steps in the negotiations. The US was negotiating in the belief that it had time to come to a leisurely agreement - Japan was negotiating in the belief that it was now or never. This may, perhaps, be relevant if discussions about cutting Putin's oil comes up, and how he might react. In any event, as I said it's been a while since I've read my sources so I'd need to double-check to be absolutely confident in what I'm saying, but I don't believe I'm wrong to say that the US absolutely believed that sanctions would lead automatically to war.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:22
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Nessus posted:My impression of European mood is, even absent nuclear weapons, that is not the case. European mood more or less is being disappointed that in the end the Russian Federation finally turned out to be yet another iteration of Russian Empire and USSR. Another malevolent police state lead by a despot, like the two previous ones. Except Germany, they are still doing the denial song and dance routine about "not being stupid enough to become dependent of Russia being honest and stable trade partner".
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Mar 21, 2022 17:23
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CSM posted:The other plan being to keep defending it until the last man? Because the alternative seems hard considering Ukrainian forces are 100km away from Mariupol. probably or at least buying time for civilians to get out. its going to take weeks for the russians to fully take the city because it will be house to house fighting in ruble and ukranian hometurf and they have had weeks to prepare. russians are already bleeding men and having them even more men here to take ruble while they are stalled out/losing on other fronts isnt good for the russian army right now.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:23
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KitConstantine posted:Well well well isn't this interesting. If this is leaking I'm gonna assume they're either already in Ukraine or just over the border in Poland. I'm skeptical of how good a condition the equipment is in after decades being analyzed or at least not maintained, but if nothing else it's probably useful as spare parts for Ukraine's own equipment. Which is probably still a very important thing for them right now.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:25
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Nessus posted:I don't think you want to overestimate NATO, either. Even if you wished away all the nuclear weapons in the world with the Dragon Balls, you would still have to fight a large army that has, if nothing else, the equipment necessary to have an insurgency, as well as an amount of un-destroyed advanced equipment. This is strictly my opinion, but I believe many European militaries have become complacent since the Cold War ended and are roughly on par or worse than Ukraine militarily. I think if push came to shove a lot of European countries would even outright surrender if they had to get into a protracted conflict with the Russians. I think the only countries in Europe that have any meaningful preparation against Russian aggression are probably Finland, Poland, The Baltics, France and Ukraine. Which is why I think they're letting Ukraine do the killing and dying for them. It buys them time and potentially might cause the threat to neutralize itself so they don't have to do anything. I think a lot of NATO countries are in absolutely terrible shape militarily and lack anything more than a token force capable of sustaining offensive operations for a couple months at most. Likely the idea is they will hold out long enough for US troops to land en-masse in Europe to relieve them.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:26
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Dapper_Swindler posted:probably or at least buying time for civilians to get out. its going to take weeks for the russians to fully take the city because it will be house to house fighting in ruble and ukranian hometurf and they have had weeks to prepare. russians are already bleeding men and having them even more men here to take ruble while they are stalled out/losing on other fronts isnt good for the russian army right now. Russia is also bleeding equipment there as evidenced by numerous videos. Also keeping a big chunk of Russian forces tied up there buys more time for Ukraine to train up more fighters. This is from an area about as far west in Ukraine as you can get https://twitter.com/war_noir/status/1505939536962072578?s=20&t=s6Jgoi49H9NeQ4d3Wf6fKQ The Ukrainian government also reports about 400,000 Ukrainians have returned from abroad, with about 70-80% of them being men. Who knows how many can be trained to a fighting standard, but any trained in support duties relieve the soldiers performing those duties now to fight.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:28
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Kraftwerk posted:This is strictly my opinion, but I believe many European militaries have become complacent since the Cold War ended and are roughly on par or worse than Ukraine militarily. I think if push came to shove a lot of European countries would even outright surrender if they had to get into a protracted conflict with the Russians. Thankfully, apparently, a token force is all you need to gently caress up the best of the best given current events.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:28
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smug n stuff posted:Bunch of pics from a claimed counteroffensive near Mykolaiv on this account: Surely even a light armoured vehicle wouldn't vapourise down to some tracks, a gun and an engine block. There would be bits all over, but you could find the bits.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:28
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Bremen posted:I'm skeptical of how good a condition the equipment is in after decades being analyzed or at least not maintained, but if nothing else it's probably useful as spare parts for Ukraine's own equipment. Which is probably still a very important thing for them right now. Some of the analysis they’re talking about requires the equipment to be operational (eg testing Soviet SAM radar against new U.S. warplanes), so it’s probably in better shape than the same gear in the Russian armed forces.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:29
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Kraftwerk posted:This is strictly my opinion, but I believe many European militaries have become complacent since the Cold War ended and are roughly on par or worse than Ukraine militarily. I think if push came to shove a lot of European countries would even outright surrender if they had to get into a protracted conflict with the Russians. Turkey has stayed sharp too.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:29
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Gort posted:Surely even a light armoured vehicle wouldn't vapourise down to some tracks, a gun and an engine block. There would be bits all over, but you could find the bits. Secondary detonations from the ammo can be catastrophic.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:34
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CommieGIR posted:Thankfully, apparently, a token force is all you need to gently caress up the best of the best given current events. It's really this. NATO air power would be more than enough to make the difference. And as someone added, Turkey could be included in competent militaries, as could parts of the UK military. To me the major gripe I have is the same one that I've thought since Libya, anytime "NATO" is talking about peacekeeping actions what they usually mean is "American." It's nothing to some NATO countries to suggest a NFZ when they know drat well they aren't going to be the ones doing it. I'm not saying it's a wise thing to do, but if Europeans want to send in peacekeepers, they're more than welcome to do it themselves, except they aren't actually able to. Pook Good Mook fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Mar 21, 2022 |
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Mar 21, 2022 17:35
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