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Heran Bago posted:Why do they target like malls and civilian hospitals? Do they try to hit military targets and just keep missing? On one hand Russia is clearly doing a bunch of indiscriminate bombardment and has absolutely hit hospitals etc, but on the other, the Kyiv mall that was hit recently was being used to store military vehicles. https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1505860511795195906 https://twitter.com/brycewilsonAU/status/1505988022260707333 It's difficult to know the exact motivation for any particular attack since the position of Ukrainian military assets is understandably secret.
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Mar 22, 2022 11:53
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Heran Bago posted:Why do they target like malls and civilian hospitals? Do they try to hit military targets and just keep missing? That shopping center had military vehicles using it as cover so they can clearly hit military targets when they feel like it. They were likewise able to nail that barracks near Lviv last week. I think in the absence of targets they just hit anything they think hurts the general population the most because being dicks is part of their doctrine.
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Mar 22, 2022 11:56
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Heran Bago posted:Why do they target like malls and civilian hospitals? Do they try to hit military targets and just keep missing? At least one of the mall strikes was because the Ukrainian Army was using the parking lot as an artillery park. (Probably why the Ukrainian government hasn’t been complaining/propagandizing much about that one) but as for the rest probably a 80/20 mix of deliberate targeting and general inaccuracy. The Russians got a rep for targeting hospitals in Syria. Deliberate civilian casualties is kind of their thing. E: f,b and with sources too
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Mar 22, 2022 11:57
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SpiritOfLenin posted:there was an earlier prediction a couple of weeks ago that Russia was about to run out of supplies that did not come true, so I'd take claims like that with a healthy amount of scepticism. If we're thinking about the same prognostication it was that they would hit the upper limit of their allocated logistical supply for the invasion. That's pretty much true, and they've stalled out real hard in most of their competing theatres. Wouldn't suggest they couldn't eventually work out resupply but it did suggest it would terminate substantial progress into the country while they unfuck things as best they can. On top of that some forces did just run out of supplies entirely lol
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Mar 22, 2022 11:59
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gay picnic defence posted:8000 kcal per day per person If this is Russian doctrine, then no bloody wonder the fat bastards don't advance.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:05
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Heran Bago posted:Why do they target like malls and civilian hospitals? Do they try to hit military targets and just keep missing? Besides the obvious "it's terror tactics intended to break morale", hitting critical civilian infrastructure like that suggests a strategy of displacement which will add managing a humanitarian crisis and evacuation to the workload of the defenders. Chalks posted:On one hand Russia is clearly doing a bunch of indiscriminate bombardment and has absolutely hit hospitals etc, but on the other, the Kyiv mall that was hit recently was being used to store military vehicles. PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Mar 22, 2022 |
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Mar 22, 2022 12:06
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Staluigi posted:If we're thinking about the same prognostication it was that they would hit the upper limit of their allocated logistical supply for the invasion. That's pretty much true, and they've stalled out real hard in most of their competing theatres. I think that prediction was based on Russian units taking 2 weeks of supplies with them and anything extra needing to be bought in from outside. People took that to mean Russian forces would hit a brick wall and collapse immediately after 2 weeks but that ignores the fact that supplies *have* been getting through, just not enough of them so it's a slow depletion of materiel available at the front lines rather than an abrupt halt.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:06
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fnox posted:https://twitter.com/rianru/status/1506173698822316032 This just reads like repackaged Duginism to me, with callbacks to the USSR for audience nostalgia.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:09
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Charlz Guybon posted:Doesn't that function cost an extra $10? I only paid the initial $10 to register an account, and my ignore list works fine.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:12
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Heran Bago posted:Why do they target like malls and civilian hospitals? Do they try to hit military targets and just keep missing? Russia has a much more relaxed view on civilian casualties than the west. They will usually officially pay lip service to civilian safety but then mostly ignore it in practice. Examples where you can see these attitudes toward collateral damage even in domestic contexts are the Chechen wars, the Beslan hostage crisis or the Moscow theater siege. Why they target specific buildings and not other probably depends. They might believe there is a field hospital in there or troops or equipment. It might also just be a terror bombing or to deny the enemy some very defensible structure in the future.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:13
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Athas posted:If this is Russian doctrine, then no bloody wonder the fat bastards don't advance. War burns a lot of calories.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:13
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Athas posted:If this is Russian doctrine, then no bloody wonder the fat bastards don't advance. Combat is somewhat more strenuous than posting on the internet.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:16
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SpiritOfLenin posted:there was an earlier prediction a couple of weeks ago that Russia was about to run out of supplies that did not come true, so I'd take claims like that with a healthy amount of scepticism. steinrokkan posted:That prediction was that they would run it of steam in few weeks, IE right about now. Which is consistent with these new reports, though both may be inaccurate. There were multiple. Bellingcat for some stupid reason tried to be the first outlet that calls the election before polls even close. Based on the week 1 reports of truck maintenance and fuel supply issues they had seen all they needed and were calling the Russian logistic collapse weeks ago. This was really stupid and caused a lot of people to dismiss the concept as a false doomsday prediction. A lot of reports suggested Russia planned for a 3 week invasion with that time just running out now. https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1505708160568463361?s=20&t=IRQd_LKTTnmENIsY2jQygg More recently the person doing the widely read reports on maintenance and supply issues has claimed April-May. https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1505370328549179392?s=20&t=IRQd_LKTTnmENIsY2jQygg I get the desire to point out why Russia's advance completely collapsed and why they started off the war running out of gas in the first few days with soldiers looting grocery stores but there is no way to know when or if they will run out of supplies before this is decided. It certainly seems that way due to the poor logistics and supply issues everyone is noticing but those kind of things aren't going to be uniform nationwide. Poor general maintenance practices will be but the losses aren't going to be uniform at this point. Those 30-40 truck convoys getting completely destroyed in the first week might have been why the northern troops ran out of gas and food but they still have roughly 2/3rds of their forces left so other areas could still have supply lines. This is also a fight to the death not a fleet of rental Trucks being of such poor quality that an Enterprise has to shut down. Some field commander probably isn't going to sideline a truck because it's lost a middle tire or keeps overheating. They might pull parts off of destroyed ones. They might loot parts from Ukraine's retail or military. It's a complex issue and all trucks aren't going to be inoperable by a deadline. Pro-Russia people are explaining that the advance halted to enact 80 year old textbook encirclement attacks with artillery preserving their troops, so therefore they are well supplied and the halt is just Perfect Strategy. That's obviously delusional and after losing 1/3rd of their forces and what has to be 10,000+ troops with extremely documented supply issues literally everywhere it's safe to say supplies are a going concern but anyone trying to pick a specific date shouldn't be. The closest you can come is the apparently accurate captured plans of a 3 week total military action planned by Russia. They experienced acute shortages when suffering extreme casualties almost immediately but theoretically had 3 weeks of unspecified supplies. That's around now. The issue with that is food/fuel reinforcements are easier to send than troops and armor so it's entirely possibly they manage to feed people so long their army just loses the weaponry to fight the war they want to fight. Either way the losses are completely unsustainable so that's why everyone is trying to predict why every weekend is the new end of the war. Rectal Death Adept fucked around with this message at 12:29 on Mar 22, 2022 |
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Mar 22, 2022 12:16
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Majorian posted:That feels high to me, so I'll take it with a grain of salt until we get better confirmation, but hey, it would be pretty baller if true. "9 air targets" is actually a lot less impressive when spelled out: "These are 1 plane, 6 UAVs and 2 helicopters," I believe the helicopters were on the ground at Kherson airfield, and at least one of those drones was a really small one. Charliegrs posted:I think something this war has illustrated is that the US has a major hole in our air defense umbrella. Like we have the Patriot missile system which is very advanced and is designed for shooting down high altitude aircraft and even ballistic missiles and it takes a lot of training and has a whole system of radar vehicles required to operate it. Then we also have the stinger missile, which is a man portable system designed to take out low flying aircraft and helicopters and doesn't have anywhere near the training requirement of the Patriot. But in between those system we have... Nothing. Like I get it, the US war doctrine for decades now has been to gain air superiority first before committing land forces so I guess the military never felt the need to develop some kind of medium range self contained radar or IR tracking AA missile system. And 20 years of war against insurgents probably didn't help motivate the military to come up with one either. There's NASAMS, but no-one really has any to spare. raverrn posted:The Us Armed Forces has decided (probably correctly) that shooting down drones and loitering munitions and whatever else is a losing proposition. You've putting a ton of money into a medium range system like the Tor, it leashes your forces to it, it's vulnerable to enemy action and breaking down, and in the end you can buy a ton of TB-2s or Harops to overmatch it. You save more lives and preserve more power by hitting their bases and interdicting their delivery. Er, that's not true at all. The Army just determined that the systems currently available are unsuited to the task, and is furiously developing new systems for it. Off the top of my head: 1. The replacement for Bradley (OMFV) is supposed to come with an AA-capable 50mm autocannon with AA firecontrol and smart rounds (so there will be gun-based medium AA in every formation because literally every IFV does the mission.) 2. The Army is currently funding a crash program to integrate an AA laser on a Stryker chassis. (DE M-SHORAD) They currently have a prototype doing trials, and are hoping to get something accepted for fielding during this year. The issue was that the systems the Army could have bought for the job would have used multimillion-dollar missiles to shoot down few-tens-of-thousand-dollar drones, and the Army was not happy about that at all. They absolutely believe that the mission is important and it needs to be done, they just want to bring the cost per shot down to usable levels before acquiring a system. In the meantime, their plan is to try to hit bases and interdict delivery. with a rebel yell she QQd posted:the government usually buys the votes of ethnic Hungarians in Zakarpattia. Fidesz voters are pro-Russia tho, and somehow the war increased Fidesz support. Go figure. It's been a part of Russian propaganda from the start that Hungary should attack Ukraine from the west and take Zakarpattia. Probably some of those voters are hoping for a Russian victory.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:20
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And if each military district is fighting its own war that would explain why the Russians have been struggling to pick a couple of areas to prioritise. e: there seems to be a consistent theme emerging on commentators. Before the war most of the pol commentators were saying 'Putin will never invade, it makes no sense' while the mil commentators were saying 'The activity we are seeing makes no sense unless he really is going to invade'. Now I'm seeing the pol commentators who are still sticking their heads up saying things like 'the longer the war goes on the worse the terms Ukraine will get are' while the mil commentators are saying 'the longer the war goes on without some kind of breakthrough success, the worse things get for Russia'. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 12:26 on Mar 22, 2022 |
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Mar 22, 2022 12:20
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Not that I distrusted this guy, but I found the article https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/authorities-detain-kyiv-man-for-sharing-footage-of-ukrainian-military-on-tiktok/ Seems he shared a tiktok back in February of military vehicles there. Doesn't seem likely that's why they fired there. This video posted to Russian Telegram seems to suggest they found it by following an MLRS trying to reload  https://t.me/ru2ch_news/38580But again this video doesn't actually show the point where the vehicle entered the mall region, so it could just be justification after the fact.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:21
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Rectal Death Adept posted:I get the desire to point out why Russia's advance completely collapsed and why they started off the war running out of gas in the first few days with soldiers looting grocery stores but there is no way to know when or if they will run out of supplies before this is decided. It certainly seems that way due to the poor logistics and supply issues everyone is noticing but those kind of things aren't going to be uniform nationwide. It's gonna be the middle option. Russia will continue for weeks or months and achieve some objectives, probably taking Mariupol and the rest of Donetsk, but will be unable to achieve its goals or enforce its will on Kyiv. Ukraine will end up in a 2014 status quo but with less territory and a even more hosed domestic situation and Russia will just become more and more isolated.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:34
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Alchenar posted:And if each military district is fighting its own war that would explain why the Russians have been struggling to pick a couple of areas to prioritise. It gets sublime with regards to the pol v. mil observations because the latter has always tried to analyze Ukraine's odds based off of what we knew of presumed russian capacity and size which was "russia simply has so much more trained manpower and superior armor/airforce/arty etc" but with each week that went by this assessment has to adjust to accommodate new understandings of their actual numerical and technological strength to say nothing of the difference in motivation and coordination
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Mar 22, 2022 12:40
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1506229325598756872?cxt=HHwWkMC46evlmecpAAAA Russian patrol boat hit by anti-tank missile somewhere near Mariupol seaside by Azov/Ukr army
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Mar 22, 2022 12:42
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FishBulbia posted:It's gonna be the middle option. Russia will continue for weeks or months and achieve some objectives, probably taking Mariupol and the rest of Donetsk, but will be unable to achieve its goals or enforce its will on Kyiv. Ukraine will end up in a 2014 status quo but with less territory and a even more hosed domestic situation and Russia will just become more and more isolated. I can’t see Russia keeping an army in the field long term. It’s costly in terms of money, materiel and warm bodies, and I think with Ukraine getting more and more weapons delivered they’re soon going to have the firepower to dislodge any static defences that get in their way.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:44
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I legit have never read or known what the cspam thread everyone keeps talking about is but I got curious and Jesus Christ. One nice thing is that all the idiots are rounded up in a single thread that you can just ignore so every time you see a blocked person posting you know they’re an idiot. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 22, 2022 12:44
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Alchenar posted:And if each military district is fighting its own war that would explain why the Russians have been struggling to pick a couple of areas to prioritise. It's amusing that one of the facts that the military commentators used to say they were certain of the invasion was all the logistical support they had moved to the border.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:45
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Combat is somewhat more strenuous than posting on the internet. 8000 calories is beyond excessive, that is obesity-tier territory. In my gym freak days I was doing maybe 3500-4000 at most. iirc Hafthor Bjornsson is like 7k calories a day
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Mar 22, 2022 12:46
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:8000 calories is beyond excessive, that is obesity-tier territory. In my gym freak days I was doing maybe 3500-4000 at most. War criming is very calorie intensive.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:47
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:8000 calories is beyond excessive, that is obesity-tier territory. In my gym freak days I was doing maybe 3500-4000 at most. Hafthor isn't dragging around a kit of 25 kg of equipment, while wearing wet clothes in a snowy forest or field turned mud pit, 24/7 in a near 0 degree Celsius conditions, getting maybe 5-7 hours of rest per day.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:51
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Staluigi posted:It gets sublime with regards to the pol v. mil observations because the latter has always tried to analyze Ukraine's odds based off of what we knew of presumed russian capacity and size Oh yeah there's been a lot of people trying to unanchor expecations and reset in real time. I disagree that the war 'ends' in stalemate. My bet is(armchair general caveat) both sides hit strategic exhaustion for any kind of operational level offensive/counter-offensives at the same time, but Ukranian willingless and ability to conduct light infantry ops along the lines of 'grab a few AT weapons and a couple of days supplies and lets go find some Russians to kill' far exceeds Russia's. A phase of the war in which Russia is neither trying to conduct large scale offensive operations nor is massing fires for any particular purpose is one in which Ukraine gets to fight on one of the very few clear advantages it has. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 12:55 on Mar 22, 2022 |
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Mar 22, 2022 12:52
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With all due respect I don't think you guys understand just how much 8000 calories per day is, even for heavily armed soldiers. I mean, I did a quick fact check search and all the links are variously saying 4000 calories or so for American soldiers. Zedsdeadbaby fucked around with this message at 12:55 on Mar 22, 2022 |
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Mar 22, 2022 12:52
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fnox posted:https://twitter.com/rianru/status/1506173698822316032 Make Russia Great Again! Boomer brain rot is endemic.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:52
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:With all due respect I don't think you guys understand just how much 8000 calories per day is, even for heavily armed soldiers. A soldier eating 8000 calories a day is going to have more than just heavy arms
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Mar 22, 2022 12:53
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Most 24h field rations are in 3500-4500 range, I think arctic/cold climate ones are extra 1500 kcal.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:55
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Regarding rations. American mres provide ca 3600 kcal per day. Winter rations normally are about 5000 kcal per day. Explorers working under arctic or Antarctic weather conditions eat maybe 8000 kcal per day.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:56
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A buddy burned around 9000 calories spending 12 hours hiking up and down a 1700m mountain with a backpack. He weighed in at 130kg at the time. I mean thats not normal even by warcrimeing standards.
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Mar 22, 2022 13:00
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if you're eating 8000 calories a day how do you have time to do anything else
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Mar 22, 2022 13:01
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:if you're eating 8000 calories a day how do you have time to do anything else When you read about bodybuilder and athlete diets eating that much is literally just work and has to be scheduled.
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Mar 22, 2022 13:02
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:With all due respect I don't think you guys understand just how much 8000 calories per day is, even for heavily armed soldiers. Make it a bit more for soldiers, crew, and even medical who have to operate exposed to cold weather elements little things compound other things, like how most of these troops have to freeze their nuts off in unpowered vehicles because nobody got fuel which means that they're gonna have to eat more food etc
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Mar 22, 2022 13:03
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Professional cyclists in, say, the Tour de France will burn 8000 calories per day of cycling, but they do perform a massive physical feat. These are athletes trained specifically to do that. I'd expect that to be (close to) an upper limit of what a body could ever burn in calories in a day.
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Mar 22, 2022 13:05
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SpiritOfLenin posted:there was an earlier prediction a couple of weeks ago that Russia was about to run out of supplies that did not come true, so I'd take claims like that with a healthy amount of scepticism. There was a certain problem with burying the lede on those headlines. "Russia's military formations carry about 3 weeks of supplies" - true. And that 3 weeks ran out. But a couple paragraphs down it's like 'So now they are reliant on supply deliveries.' Not quite as sensational. Russian logistics has been a mess, but they haven't been cut off either.
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Mar 22, 2022 13:07
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Oh hey, rare Javelin strike footage: (no gore, you are either watching someone's ride home brew up or some people who aren't going to need to worry about getting a ride home) https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1506219574508892165
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Mar 22, 2022 13:07
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:if you're eating 8000 calories a day how do you have time to do anything else Competition training was "Here's the hours I book for the training" And "Here's the hours I book for the fitness regimen" And "Here's the hours I book for food prep and eating" And "Here's the hours I have to schedule for sitting on the shitter" The competitive swimmers had it even worse, you just eat insane amounts of food all the time
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Mar 22, 2022 13:07
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Not to mention the obscene flatulence
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Mar 22, 2022 13:10
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