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mobby_6kl posted:
Political mismanagement and shifting goals. There are a lot of nice stuff slated for delivery in the next couple of years, both long range Patriots and something Mid-range from UK. Same goes for more planes, MLRS and AT missiles. There are 2 ways of looking at it: 1. SAMs are not sexy, so let's buy a bunch of tanks or planes instead. 2. For a couple of years Polish Army was hobbled by a dude called Macierewicz, who some consider Russian spy, or at least unconscious asset. Dude single-handedly destroyed decades of successful intelligence network building, then gutted counter-intel office, thrown out of the window decade-long plans of army modernisation and managed to start quarrels with our allies. That's the reason NATO is/was hesitant to share information with Polish Army.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:27
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Irpin appears to be firmly back in Ukrainian hands. The Ukrainian army has turned it over to the local police force. https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1506552649285521453
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Mar 23, 2022 14:31
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https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506468626483879938 How legit this is is anyone's guess, but as Lukashenko seems to have no intention of moving in with Belarus troops while continuing to promise it, it appears the Russian government is looking to replace him.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:33
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Alexei Navalny's group claims to have evidence that the 459-foot, $700 million dollar yacht Scheherazade, parked in Italy, belongs to Putin. https://navalny.com/p/6620/ It's a pretty great read. Evidence that lots of crew members work for the FSO: they're listed in people's leaked address books as "[name] FSO", they list a work address as an FSO office for tax forms, they list the FSO as their employers on credit checks. Most interestingly, the New York Times spoke with the captain, the sole non-Russian crew member (he's British), and he said he was interviewed by Italian financial police in early March. So Italy could be on to something.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:38
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Finance/energy folks; If Russia is demanding gas payments in RUB, what are the countermeasures? Top of mind, I'd imagine EU nations will try to purchase reserve currency from Russia's laundry pals in the UAE and Saudi instead of directly enriching Russian sources, but this seems like a hardball maneuver that's going to be hard to fully counter.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:39
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Saoshyant posted:https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506468626483879938 If I were someone decently important in Polish government I'd prepare a plan to strap loudspeakers to drones and blast in Russian and Belarussian: "Belarussian soldiers, that fight is pointless. If you head to Polish border we'll give each of you 5000 EUR, and provide you with EU Visas. We will pay extra for every piece of equipment you take with you. No questions asked, no prison time, you're free to stay in Poland or go to other EU countries. Head to the border, we'll even provide free train ticket and civillian clothes".
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Mar 23, 2022 14:40
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Sit-rep from the Eastern front by Igor "Strelkov" Girkinquote:According to the situation at the front:
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Mar 23, 2022 14:42
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Russia thinks the upcoming conscription season starting on April 1st will be "complicated" - understatement of the year https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1506622944566460418?s=20&t=51zjBCipA57TB9fgNsjExQ Article: https://www.interfax-russia.ru/northwest/news/genshtab-vs-rf-zapretil-napravlyat-prizyvnikov-v-rayony-svo-voenkom-peterburga quote:“I bring to your attention and to the attention of officials participating in the government meeting the information received through the order of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the categorical prohibition of sending conscripts to the areas of the special military operation,” Mazurin said. SureJan.gif
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Mar 23, 2022 14:42
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Saoshyant posted:https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506468626483879938 I think its accurate to say that Lukashenko is between a rock and a hard place: If he invades, the Army appears likely to rebel against him. If he doesn't, Putin might, but given Putin's performance in Ukraine, Lukashenko may be betting that Putin doesn't have the men to do it and he could surround himself with the Army.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:42
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Saoshyant posted:https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506468626483879938 It's hard to imagine a world where Belarus succeeds in doing that even if they did attack. Look at the amount of territory they would have to cross in order to reach that city vs what Russia managed to achieve. Maybe I could believe it was the plan before the invasion, but that thread says this was planned to happen 3 days ago. It's either nonsense or Putin has zero grasp of the reality in Ukraine.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:43
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DOOMocrat posted:Finance/energy folks; If Russia is demanding gas payments in RUB, what are the countermeasures? Top of mind, I'd imagine EU nations will try to purchase reserve currency from Russia's laundry pals in the UAE and Saudi instead of directly enriching Russian sources, but this seems like a hardball maneuver that's going to be hard to fully counter. Contracts specify payment currency. We’ll just send our euros, and if they refuse - tear it all up, since that’s going to be valid casus belli for loving up their petro machine. This is very much a “gently caress around and find out” territory for Russia.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:43
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Saoshyant posted:https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506468626483879938 This is the gut feeling of everyone around - Łukaszenko is too afraid of ordering an invasion of his own. Mostly because the public doesn't want it, he really doesn't want it, and the army really really doesn't want it. The possibility of a coup is high if he decides to push the order, as despite the ties that bind him personally to Putin, the idea of attacking Ukraine is not something that would go down easily in Belarus. So the feeling is that his head will roll first, then Belarus joins the war. If that happens, I cannot predict the consequences for Europe.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:43
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alex314 posted:If I were someone decently important in Polish government I'd prepare a plan to strap loudspeakers to drones and blast in Russian and Belarussian: They might be skeptical given how we treated the last batch of people trying to cross that particular border 
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Mar 23, 2022 14:44
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Kikas posted:This is the gut feeling of everyone around - Łukaszenko is too afraid of ordering an invasion of his own. Mostly because the public doesn't want it, he really doesn't want it, and the army really really doesn't want it. The possibility of a coup is high if he decides to push the order, as despite the ties that bind him personally to Putin, the idea of attacking Ukraine is not something that would go down easily in Belarus. If Luka knows this, and the West presumes it, how loving stupid is Putin to still want it? Setting aside the Belarussian army, there's no guarantee that after a coup you're going to be able to use Belarusian infrastructure to support your northern front. The whole thing could come tumbling down and strand a poo poo load of Russian troops.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:47
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Kikas posted:This is the gut feeling of everyone around - Łukaszenko is too afraid of ordering an invasion of his own. Mostly because the public doesn't want it, he really doesn't want it, and the army really really doesn't want it. The possibility of a coup is high if he decides to push the order, as despite the ties that bind him personally to Putin, the idea of attacking Ukraine is not something that would go down easily in Belarus. If the army doesn't want to invade and someone takes Lukaszenko out to get the order issued, I feel like that would just result in the army seizing control of the country. They'd seem very justified in doing so to prevent a foreign coup, even if the real reason is not wanting to invade.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:48
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Kikas posted:They might be skeptical given how we treated the last batch of people trying to cross that particular border Obvious answer: they will be white. Interesting aside: since Polish Army relocated a lot of forces toward Ukrainian border the volunteers that help Syrians cross the border have it way easier now. They are also better organized, and supposedly enjoy more local support as well. I'd ask why the government still persist in that crime against humanity, but I already know the answer. Right wing cunts from Konfederacja started to take on the more racist electorate so they need to go full "US ICE Detention Camp" level of crimes, only do them in way dumber way.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:51
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GABA ghoul posted:Are Russian state tv sites blocked inside the EU? I remember the EU removed the TV channel licenses but don't remember that it was supposed to include internet sites. Also, not every state TV channel site is blocked for me, only some. They are blocked at DNS level, meaning if you set up cloudflare dns on your computer you can go to RT, sputnik or whatever you like.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:53
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Chalks posted:If the army doesn't want to invade and someone takes Lukaszenko out to get the order issued, I feel like that would just result in the army seizing control of the country. They'd seem very justified in doing so to prevent a foreign coup, even if the real reason is not wanting to invade. Does Russia have enough troops in Belarus to effectivly counter a military coup hostile to Russian Interests? Even if the Belarussian army is supposedlyt rather awful I can't imagine Russia being all that excited about opening up a second front.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:53
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DOOMocrat posted:Finance/energy folks; If Russia is demanding gas payments in RUB, what are the countermeasures? Top of mind, I'd imagine EU nations will try to purchase reserve currency from Russia's laundry pals in the UAE and Saudi instead of directly enriching Russian sources, but this seems like a hardball maneuver that's going to be hard to fully counter. it seems reasonably clever as a way to stabilize the ruble and to give it value outside Russia to aid in imports (and it doesn't really matter where the EU buys rubles from). the countermeasures would be to tell them to go gently caress themselves, but that's a dangerous game given how dependent germany is on them. another countermeasure would be to put a punitive tarriff on russian oil and gas to really push everyone away from it and to lower its cost.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:54
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[edit:] I misread a run-on sentence
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Mar 23, 2022 14:55
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Deteriorata posted:Irpin appears to be firmly back in Ukrainian hands. The Ukrainian army has turned it over to the local police force. Not entirely. https://twitter.com/WynnWs/status/1506614851300438017
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Mar 23, 2022 14:55
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Military wisdom of a Belurussian invasion aside, it's classic autocracy. Forcing Lukashenko to invade, despite it being stupid, cuts him away from any other support he might have in Belarus or abroad. Pretty similar to 'Telling outrageous lies and seeing who will agree with you' bit, except a hell of a lot bloodier. That Lukashenko reeeeally doesn't want to is almost the point.
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Mar 23, 2022 14:56
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Reports that white phosphorus has allegedly been used in Hostomel and Irpin (no images/video): https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1506618035729276941 If true that is a serious escalation. Saoshyant fucked around with this message at 14:59 on Mar 23, 2022 |
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Mar 23, 2022 14:56
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Kikas posted:So the feeling is that his head will roll first, then Belarus joins the war. If that happens, I cannot predict the consequences for Europe. vvvv: I believe they used it in the Luhansk region a few weeks ago too. Grouchio fucked around with this message at 15:01 on Mar 23, 2022 |
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Mar 23, 2022 14:57
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Saoshyant posted:Reports that white phosphorus has allegedly been used in Hostomel and Irpin (no images/video): No loving way
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Mar 23, 2022 14:59
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ZombieLenin posted:Are you in France or the United Kingdom? If so you are completely wrong, your militaries would have kicked the poo poo out of the Russians.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:01
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Charlotte Hornets posted:Sit-rep from the Eastern front by Igor "Strelkov" Girkin For those of us who weren’t following the EE thread prior to the war, who is Igor Girkin and why is he writing from a Russian perspective while delivering news that I can’t imagine Putin would be at all happy to see spread?
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Mar 23, 2022 15:03
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Saoshyant posted:Reports that white phosphorus has allegedly been used in Hostomel and Irpin (no images/video): They will probably use weasel words like Bush/Obama and claim it was for illumination or smoke.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:03
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Saoshyant posted:Reports that white phosphorus has allegedly been used in Hostomel and Irpin (no images/video): it isn't an escalation any more than using thermobarics or cluster munitions
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Mar 23, 2022 15:04
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Kikas posted:No loving way Apparently they might just be a different kind of incindiary round? Spoilered in case, but the tweet has pictures of the spark/burst pattern in the air in the dark https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1506587463304859656?s=20&t=7BGWPtM-bqQJDy-_2X3PdQ
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Mar 23, 2022 15:04
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Now I'm very much an amateur, but I'm not sure you need smokescreens for concealment at night.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:07
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Mr. Apollo posted:Probably surprising to no one here, but one of the major newspapers in Canada, the Toronto Star conducted a poll asking people if Russia's invasion of Ukraine was justified. The responses were broken down by vaccination status. But Putin should invade Ukraine and tell Ukrainians what to do at the point of a literal gun! I don't think "authoritarian" is quite the right word. They seem to think Putin should have unlimited authority to do whatever he wants, up to and including starting wars and murdering anyone who disagrees with him. But Western governments shouldn't even be able to insist you get a vaccine. "Dumbass" is perhaps a better word.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:08
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quote:The use of such weapons against civilians is banned by the Geneva Conventions. This is a really weird sentence. Which bombs are allowed to be used against civilians in the Geneva Conventions?
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Mar 23, 2022 15:08
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Tomn posted:For those of us who weren’t following the EE thread prior to the war, who is Igor Girkin and why is he writing from a Russian perspective while delivering news that I can’t imagine Putin would be at all happy to see spread? He is arguably the premiere separatist war criminal, likely one of the people who directly shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17
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Mar 23, 2022 15:09
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Alchenar posted:Now I'm very much an amateur, but I'm not sure you need smokescreens for concealment at night. Smoke will block IR light for night vision equipment, so yes it may be helpful.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:09
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Kikas posted:No loving way I've seen a few videos from telegram the past week-ish purporting to show white phosphorus in Luhansk some rehosts earlier https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3428296-russian-war-criminals-use-phosphorous-munitions-in-popasna.html most recent https://tpyxa.net/2022/03/23/white-phosphorus-munitions-kyiv-tonight-russia-continues-to-commit-war-crimes/ (yes it's NEXTA but it is a video from another source) https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1506134221617774597 "Here is another Russian gift, the spade is burning, loving assholes!"
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Mar 23, 2022 15:09
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Tomn posted:For those of us who weren’t following the EE thread prior to the war, who is Igor Girkin and why is he writing from a Russian perspective while delivering news that I can’t imagine Putin would be at all happy to see spread? He's a former official in the Donetsk Separatists who got pushed out, and provides a pro-Russian critique of the invasion.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:10
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Zephro posted:That drat gubmint can't tell me what to do! rah-rah muh freedoms! We have perfectly useful words like "fascist" already
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Mar 23, 2022 15:10
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Alchenar posted:Now I'm very much an amateur, but I'm not sure you need smokescreens for concealment at night. on a technical level, white phosphorous smoke is incredibly useful because it also blocks thermal imaging, aka night vision on a legal level, there's so many loopholes around the use of white phosphorous that it simply isn't useful to point at how its use is banned in some circumstances but not others this is clickbait
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Mar 23, 2022 15:11
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Saoshyant posted:Reports that white phosphorus has allegedly been used in Hostomel and Irpin (no images/video): It's awful, but not an escalation. Plenty of countries use white phosphorus or incendiary weapons.
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Mar 23, 2022 15:16
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