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Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Franks Happy Place posted:

Submarine Chat is a not entirely a derail, it's a good illustration of the complexity of MAD and why nobody wants to engage in nuke/Clancy chat: second strike capabilities have basically rendered nuclear brinkmanship irrelevant.

Nobody is going to throw a nuke if they think there is an excellent chance some gigantic nuke bearing death tub is going to rise out of the sea like something out of an anime a week later and vengeance-level your society.

And just to loop back to what started it off: France has put 3/4 of its subs to sea.

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Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

mobby_6kl posted:

Oooh Admiral Kuznetsov, anyone knows where it's at? Any chanc of it sinking?

I think it's in dry dock being refit/repaired.

Kalman
Jan 17, 2010

HappyHippo posted:

The US has just a stupid amount of everything compared to other countries. We've all seen this one before:



This image is actually a great illustration of why the U.S. has a much easier time projecting force (particularly air power) outside of its own borders than any other country.

And it doesn't even note that there are precisely two countries on there that operate carriers that can actually launch most non-V/STOL aircraft - the US and France. (Technically the Sao Paulo also could, but it was decommissioned in 2017. And Russia, China, and India have STOBAR setups on their carriers, but those have limits on aircraft type and loadout that catapult setups don't.)

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Looks like the Russians may have decided to change things up and make a good strategic decision
https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1506710609307615238?s=20&t=3C1YO27aTveeHZ_DsxWoEA
But as demonstrated the Ukrainians are already aware of the move. This will be critical to watch in the next couple of days imo. It'll be really good for the Ukrainians if the Russians gently caress up this move to solidify their hold in the east and/or the Ukrainians can prevent it

Edit: thread is from a Ukrainian account that's been monitoring social media, specifically telegram and twitter, for posts about military movements

KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Mar 23, 2022

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Can you seriously not stop yourselvez? 😆 like, unable to do it?

Reiterpallasch
Nov 3, 2010



Fun Shoe

Pakled posted:

Wikipedia says it's been undergoing refitting in Murmansk (the Arctic Sea coast near the border with Norway) since 2017 and will be out of service until 2023.

they need to fix the drydock she was in first, i think, and that 2023 number was before they drove their economy off a cliff and pissed off almost everyone who could sell them the stuff they need to fix it

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Pakled posted:

Wikipedia says it's been undergoing refitting in Murmansk (the Arctic Sea coast near the border with Norway) since 2017 and will be out of service until 2023.

Concerned Citizen posted:

I think it's in dry dock being refit/repaired.
So a pretty good chance of sinking?



Yeah :v:


Kalman posted:

Didn't see this posted/discussed (apologies if it already was) but the US government has made the formal accusation that the Russian military has committed war crimes in Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/23/politics/us-russia-war-crimes/index.html
Probably not going to go anywhere like all other war crimes sadly

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Sekenr posted:

Can you seriously not stop yourselvez? 😆 like, unable to do it?

To be fair, a big part of why this whole conflict matters so much is that people with real political and military power can easily get into Clancychat. I don't think it's surprising that this tread slides into it from time to time too.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Tagesschau posted:

Following the announcement of new arms deliveries to Ukraine, Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck has held out the prospect of approving all applications as quickly as possible. "With the decision to supply weapons to Ukraine, we have embarked on a path that everyone hopefully knew we would have to follow consistently," the Green politician told Die Welt.

For his ministry and himself, this means "that we will of course approve all arms deliveries that are within the agreed corridor", Habeck said. "This will be done immediately. This has been the policy of my ministry since the beginning of the war." Habeck's ministry is responsible for approving arms exports.

In the case of all weapons used for self-defence, the Ministry of Economics generally votes positively in the case of Ukraine, reported Die Welt, citing government circles. All applications from the Bundeswehr as well as from companies would be processed with the highest priority and granted on the same day.

That's 2000 of the fancy version of the Panzerfaust 3 afaik, including unspecified manpads.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

KitConstantine posted:

Looks like the Russians may have decided to change things up and make a good strategic decision
https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1506710609307615238?s=20&t=3C1YO27aTveeHZ_DsxWoEA
But as demonstrated the Ukrainians are already aware of the move. This will be critical to watch in the next couple of days imo. It'll be really good for the Ukrainians if the Russians gently caress up this move to solidify their hold in the east and/or the Ukrainians can prevent it

Edit: thread is from a Ukrainian account that's been monitoring social media, specifically telegram and twitter, for posts about military movements

Encircling Donbas has been a key Russian objective since day one. I am a bit skeptical that they accomplish a breakthrough since they've basically been hitting brick wall fortified positions for weeks.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

KitConstantine posted:

Looks like the Russians may have decided to change things up and make a good strategic decision
https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1506710609307615238?s=20&t=3C1YO27aTveeHZ_DsxWoEA
But as demonstrated the Ukrainians are already aware of the move. This will be critical to watch in the next couple of days imo. It'll be really good for the Ukrainians if the Russians gently caress up this move to solidify their hold in the east and/or the Ukrainians can prevent it

Edit: thread is from a Ukrainian account that's been monitoring social media, specifically telegram and twitter, for posts about military movements

Yeah, they've been trying to do this for a couple weeks now and haven't had much success. Izium has been a cemetery for a lot of Russian armor.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Concerned Citizen posted:

Encircling Donbas has been a key Russian objective since day one. I am a bit skeptical that they accomplish a breakthrough since they've basically been hitting brick wall fortified positions for weeks.

Yeah, and these are the better supplied Russians and they are still not making great inroads.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1506688907869630471?s=20&t=SZsc0c3BXsTeJzJ85Eqi9Q

MikeC
Jul 19, 2004
BITCH ASS NARC

Morrow posted:

Who could have guessed that creating a massive global integrated supply chain where a critical dependency was one or more autocratic petrostates would eventually cause serious issues?

Integration of these countries was part of the plan to try and curb aggressive behavior and police their actions since we could keep the economic sword of damocles hanging over their heads. We forget that the sword cuts both ways.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

GABA ghoul posted:

It's not gonna play out the way you think it will. The popular consensus and disaster planning here in Europe calls for rationing of industrial gas use before rationing heating. This means massive global supply issues in the chemical industry and everything downhill from it. You are not gonna be spared, no matter where you are on the planet. Europe makes and exports a massive amount of critical chemicals products. Also pharmaceuticals. Medical drug prices would explode.

Jesus Christ, Europe.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Pook Good Mook posted:

gently caress me that is some good soil

Ukraine was famous for its soil in USSR, yeah.

PederP posted:

I know some have said these bans are on a per-country basis, but the way it's been communicated in Denmark is as an EU-mandated measure. There's a lot of anti-EU sentiment in Denmark still - and anti-censorship is almost a matter of national pride to many Danes, so this ban has not gone over well.

RT and Sputnik bans are an EU-mandated measure. Everything else is not.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Kraftwerk posted:

What do you do with the spent AT-4 launcher after? Do you just throw it on the ground? Do spent stingers or javelins have any strategic value if the enemy finds them?

Could be wrong but if it's disposable it just turns into a wall hanger that you can show your grandchildren. :corsair:

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
:nms:https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1506700059794096132?s=20&t=SZsc0c3BXsTeJzJ85Eqi9Q:nms:

Tank being blown to absolute smithereens.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

Jokes on you, American medical drug prices are already so high affording them is a joke.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

Antigravitas posted:

Well, I'd direct your complaint to the Kremlin, because they are the ones dropping packets somewhere after AS12389, their NOC is noc-ip@rt.ru :v:

Curse you and your facts that counter the narrative I'm telling to myself!

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Antigravitas posted:

Well, I'd direct your complaint to the Kremlin, because they are the ones dropping packets somewhere after AS12389, their NOC is noc-ip@rt.ru :v:

Interesting, I was getting Latvian government warning on Kremlin.ru before at least (which again, is our own restriction), but that changed sometime recently - I guess I now know why I had to use a Russian VPN server specifically. I can confirm though that a number of their sites, notably Moex, have been unilaterally restricting EU traffic since before the EU sanctions.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

PerilPastry posted:

Yeah, it's not getting a warm reception, certainly. Stoltenberg, too, was asked whether it might be a good idea to create a coalition of the willing outside of the aegis of NATO at the presser today. And while he has observe the diplomatic niceties and not step on Poland's toes, he did probably come as close as to saying that it's *not* a viable or prudent idea as a guy in his position likely can imo:

"When it comes to forces – so NATO is not part of the conflict. We provide support to Ukraine, but we are not part of the conflict. We help Ukraine with upholding their right for self defence which is enshrined in the UN Charter. But NATO will not send troops into Ukraine. We have to understand that it is extremely important to provide support to Ukraine and we are stepping up, but at the same time it is also extremely important to prevent that this conflict becomes a full-fledged war between NATO and Russia. And therefore it has been a very clear message from NATO Allies that we will not send troops to Ukraine."

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_193610.htm?selectedLocale=en
And I suppose Biden/Stolten have the power to stop Poland from going in alone anyways? A stern call or two to the PM?

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Chalks posted:

It was -20C a week or two ago and saying "50% of troops have frostbite" doesn't mean they got it yesterday, it means they're unable to fight due to having got it at some point. I dunno if I buy the 50% part but I could totally buy some significant portion being out of action because of it.

Having personally gotten frostbite on two of my fingers when I was a teenager having worked outside all day on a day it was 15 to 20 degree Fahrenheit, wet, and windy I can tell you two things.

First the people who keep saying “it’s not cold enough to get frostbite if it’s 10 degrees!” Are full of poo poo, and second frostbite isn’t always the “your probably going to lose fingers and toes, and definitely cannot keep fighting in a war” people seem to think it is.

I personally just had what looked like a splotchy white rash on my fingers that hurt, and kept hurting for a couple days—which is why I went to a doctor who said, “looks like you got frostbite. You will live, and take some Advil for the pain. Also wear gloves next time.”

tl;dr

It doesn’t have to be -20 to get frostbite. You can get it in normal below freezing temperatures with long enough exposure, particularly when it’s windy and wet.

Also the severity of frostbite depends on how deep it goes, if it’s just the top layer or so of skin, it is annoying and painful, but nobody is amputating your body parts.

ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Mar 23, 2022

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

Antigravitas posted:

That capability does not exist.

My packets drop after Rostelecom.

In other words: It's the Russians.

Which capability does not exist? The EU most certainly has the capability to, and has blocked, sites. RT.com is definitely an EU block. No idea about Kremlin.ru.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Grouchio posted:

And I suppose Biden/Stolten have the power to stop Poland from going in alone anyways? A stern call or two to the PM?

Nobody can stop them if they really want to do it. They're a sovereign nation.

PederP
Nov 20, 2009

Antigravitas posted:

Well, I'd direct your complaint to the Kremlin, because they are the ones dropping packets somewhere after AS12389, their NOC is noc-ip@rt.ru :v:

I think you misunderstood me - I was purely referring to the EU-mandated bans on certain website, and that I'd prefer if the Danish constitution was upheld. I'm not quite sure what you're referring to as I certainly didn't mean to imply we should do anything about how routing happens inside Russia. Anyway, my bad for whatever part of my word soup led to this assumption.

Edit: Ah maybe it was the ban part and my assumption it was implemented by our authorities? In Denmark, the courts and/or government can mandate that ISPs restrict routing (based on IP) and DNS lookup. They also mandate logging of all internet traffic by ISP, which has been declared illegal by EU several times, but the Danish government just ignores this.

PederP fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Mar 23, 2022

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

CommieGIR posted:

Yes, two entirely different submarines. SSBNs have massive vertical launch tubes for holding the IRBMs, SSNs do not, generally have just torpedo tubes (although the Virginian Class now has modified modules called the Virgnia Payload Module that can carry an IRBM, but not usually nuclear armed.)

In the US Navy its the Ohio Class that is SSBN, Virgnian/Seaworld/Los Angeles class are SSNs.

US SSNs can launch cruise missiles. I assume they use vertical launch to do so, though I could be wrong.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009


That appears to have been a significant emotional event. :catstare:

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Just Another Lurker posted:

That appears to have been a significant emotional event. :catstare:

Some Russians who aren't going to have to worry about frostbite.

Anyway loving roll them up, if the danger can be taken off Kyiv then the prospects of Ukraine being able to manage the situation in the East get enormously better.

https://twitter.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1506720619710324747

Drone_Fragger
May 9, 2007


Looks like a catastrophic ammo explosion. Russian tanks are fairly notorious for using autoloaders that requires the ammo be stored much less securely than NATO vehicles but let's them fire like 30% faster and not need a gunner. But means a good hit will cause the entire thing to explode.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Just Another Lurker posted:

That appears to have been a significant emotional event. :catstare:

I highly doubt that was a tank. If it were a tank there would be identifiable wreckage.

Looks more like a truck or unarmored vehicle of some sort.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


ZombieLenin posted:

Having personally gotten frostbite on two of my fingers when I was a teenager having worked outside all day on a day it was 15 to 20 degree Fahrenheit, wet, and windy I can tell you two things.

First the people who keep saying “it’s not cold enough to get frostbite if it’s 10 degrees!” Are full of poo poo, and second frostbite isn’t always the “your probably going to lose fingers and toes, and definitely cannot keep fighting in a war” people seem to think it is.

I personally just had what looked like a splotchy white rash on my fingers that hurt, and kept hurting for a couple days—which is why I went to a doctor who said, “looks like you got frostbite. You will live, and take some Advil for the pain. Also wear gloves next time.”

tl;dr

It doesn’t have to be -20 to get frostbite. You can get it in normal below freezing temperatures with long enough exposure, particularly when it’s windy and wet.

Also the severity of frostbite depends on how deep it goes, if it’s just the top layer or so of skin, it is annoying and painful, but nobody is amputating your body parts.

Okay but pretend instead you have frostbite and no gloves and no doctor and no advil and you're sleeping in a trench in Ukraine where it's wet and the local populace wants to kill you dead. It's probably going to affect your ability to fight in a war.

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute

Ynglaur posted:

US SSNs can launch cruise missiles. I assume they use vertical launch to do so, though I could be wrong.

They can do both.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
I mean it quite literally. The EU cannot selectively block access to websites. It's simply not technology that exists, and there's no legal framework for it.

Some member states have infrastructure (technical and legal) to order ISPs to mess with DNS, but that is wildly ineffective. Some member states may have ability to screw around with connections to certain IP addresses, but I don't know of any and that would be playing with fire.

For example, I can open rt.com using my residential German ISP. I cannot open kremlin.ru - because Russia is blocking me.

Tom Clancy is Dead
Jul 13, 2011

Here's a technical overview on Russia's internet connections
https://labs.ripe.net/author/emileaben/how-is-russia-connected-to-the-wider-internet/

Bill Woodcock quoted there is the Executive Director of the Packet Clearing House and a family friend. He is one of the authors of a letter about internet infrastructure and sanctions: https://archive.org/stream/multista...220312_djvu.txt

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

KillHour posted:

Okay but pretend instead you have frostbite and no gloves and no doctor and no advil and you're sleeping in a trench in Ukraine where it's wet and the local populace wants to kill you dead.

No, for sure. It’s just some of the Russian apologists on Twitter keep saying, “no way you can get frostbite when it was 10 degrees all day in Ukraine yesterday!”

And also, people generally keep saying “no way its 50% of Russian soldiers, because that would mean 50% of Russian ground forces cannot fight anymore.”

I am just saying, if you are outside all day in below freezing temperatures you absolutely can still get frostbite even if its 15 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit outside; AND there are varying degrees of frostbite.

Meaning it is, in my brain, totally possible to have large numbers of troops get frostbite, but many are still able to walk around, point guns at things, and shoot people despite having a case of frostbite.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Antigravitas posted:

I mean it quite literally. The EU cannot selectively block access to websites.

The US can, globally, but they won't short of a martial law situation because it would be the end of the internet as we know it.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

PederP posted:

In Denmark, the courts and/or government can mandate that ISPs restrict routing (based on IP) and DNS lookup.

:stare:

That's bad.

you feelin fucky
May 23, 2009

GABA ghoul posted:

It's not gonna play out the way you think it will. The popular consensus and disaster planning here in Europe calls for rationing of industrial gas use before rationing heating. This means massive global supply issues in the chemical industry and everything downhill from it. You are not gonna be spared, no matter where you are on the planet. Europe makes and exports a massive amount of critical chemicals products. Also pharmaceuticals. Medical drug prices would explode.

Nah, its gonna be factories making stuff like paper, aluminum, fertilizer, dyes and paints that are going to be shuttered. Also maybe certain country's luxury car brands that recently made the switch to gas fired power plants.
Drug pricing has like nothing to do with gas. All the cheap mass produced meds are made outside of europe anyway.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Alchenar posted:

Anyway loving roll them up, if the danger can be taken off Kyiv then the prospects of Ukraine being able to manage the situation in the East get enormously better.

Wait east? Pushing back Russians east is new, isn't it? We've heard a bunch about stuff to the west but not the east as much
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1506725374369091588?s=20&t=u-tr-UsxSVE5xXTh73Vhww

Edit: I might be wrong, but I remember a lot of the conversation focusing on the west side of Kyiv and up towards Belarus by Chernobyl, feel free to correct me.

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Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

edit:nvm

Grouchio fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Mar 23, 2022

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