READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

KitConstantine posted:

Thank you for the context, I didn't know anything about his politics . I thought it was worth posting a more russian-favorable but nominally neutral assessment as a baseline for comparison.

Though a lot of conservative-leaning but "non political" US based commentators seem to be making GBS threads on the US response - I have to wonder how much is influenced by the neocon narrative that Biden is a foreign policy gently caress up.

Here's a "No one in DC knows what the hell to do!" take that you might find interesting.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506476134455824387
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506476836020232193
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506478995856109573
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506479611500240896
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506483668541394946
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506484946755538945

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:26

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# ? May 31, 2024 15:51

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

ZombieLenin posted:

That made me cry for real. It�s poo poo like this that I need from time-to-time to remind how loving stupid war is.

Yeah, there's a lot of stuff about this war that I'm actively avoiding and as soon as I realized what that was I noped out.

It's just so incredibly miserably sad, even when the better side is winning.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:26

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/23/russia-us-military-leaders-communication/

Top Russian military leaders repeatedly decline calls from U.S., prompting fears of �sleepwalking into war� Lack of communication leaves the world�s two largest nuclear powers in the dark about explanations for military movements

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:27

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

How can we to be surprised that the United States imperial empire is just hoping for a quick defeat of the ukrainians as a way to appease putin.

The capitalist will always go for appeasement as a method of solving externalities.

Partly they know there will be a global economic catastrophe in the next three to four months if this thing doesn't wrapped up.

Just loving wait for this thing to be close to the end. That's when all the cool realpolitik stuff is going to happen where is zelensky is quietly couped or turned and a new Ukrainian leader declares neutrality as a method of stopping a nuclear bomb from going off in europe. So even if they win the war they still lose because that's what needs to happen to keep global hegemony going.

It is completely and utterly hosed.

And I mean what is Putin's answer if he loses this? I don't want to breach too far into the nuclear talk because I don't want to get probated for Clancy chat. But there is an unanswered question here and that is what is the end result if he loses?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 01:37 on Mar 24, 2022

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:30

Kith: Sep 17, 2009; You never learn anything
by doing it right.

please enjoy this nice thing as a change of pace

https://i.imgur.com/AzExnp2.mp4

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:30

tehinternet: Feb 14, 2005; Semantically, "you" is both singular and plural, though syntactically it is always plural. It always takes a verb form that originally marked the word as plural.

Also, there is no plural when the context is an argument with an individual rather than a group. Somfin shouldn't put words in my mouth.

Kraftwerk posted:

This is what happens when you make MBA's a prerequisite for management decisions instead of promoting management and executives from within the ranks of the company's functional units.
We have a shareholder culture that does not care about the operational needs of a company and just wants to see the number go up no matter what, so we built a fragile global logistics system that doesn't work anymore.

By the way, nobody at the C-Suite level thinks we should go back to having big warehouses and inventory stockpiles. We're still trying to keep inventories razor thin and selling everything we produce within a 2-3 month period and if you don't you get nagged about working capital.
Nothing has changed. Nobody is actually doing anything about the supply chain problems. They're continuing to try and operate as if it's 2019 only they're raising prices and enduring stock-outs in the process.

We should be firing everyone who runs big companies and replacing them with people who have actual experience and knowledge about what a business really needs to operate effectively. Because the bean counters are not prepared or fit for purpose in a world where absolute profits and small inventory are not the only consideration anymore.

I just want to say that this post speaks to my heart and that 90% of MBAs are some of the dumbest fucks I�ve ever met on the planet. It�s like majoring in �Uhhh I don�t know� and then doubling down on it.

We have to find a way to engage in long term thinking. As it stands, if Russia shuts off the gas, they�re gonna have real leverage because of this dumbass, min-maxing thinking.

ZombieLenin posted:

Okay, I get what you are saying, but Hamburg was a German city not a �Nazi� city. The Germans have a lot to feel guilty about for the Second World War, but there is a clear delineation between the regular people and the authoritarian government.

Just like Moscow is a Russian city not a Putin city.

Nazi Germany was different from Russia today in a lot of meaningful ways. The average German citizen put their head in the ground and ignored a lot of awful poo poo because it was good for them. This isn�t controversial, it�s what happened. The average Russian today is poor as gently caress and gets propaganda pumped into their veins.

tehinternet fucked around with this message at 01:35 on Mar 24, 2022

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:31

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Let's not forget that France is one of Russia's allies. Walnut militarily France and Russia have always had an interesting relationship with each other.

They have better relationships with Russia (specifically Putin) but they are not allies at all.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:32

Sir John Falstaff: Apr 13, 2010

marxismftw posted:

They (US military attaches) knew exactly what they doing.

Quite possibly, but then it shouldn't be a surprise that they got a negative response.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:33

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Eric Cantonese posted:

Here's a "No one in DC knows what the hell to do!" take that you might find interesting.

Oh I'm not talking about that kind of take - which honestly makes sense to me. I'm talking about the guys who said that Biden should have somehow done more to stop the war by ??? But simultaneously shouldn't have talked to China after it started because it made the US look weak.

Or the ones who say the US/NATO antagonized Russia and that's why the war started, but are also pissed Biden isn't leading the charge on sanctions. The incoherent takes.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:34

Skippy McPants: Mar 19, 2009

Eric Cantonese posted:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506484946755538945

Or read of it? We're talking about a region of the world where some towns and villages have changed hands a half dozen times in the last hundred years. It is really that much of a shock they'd have an unusually high tolerance for war weariness?

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:35

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

The atrocities pile up and the certitude of victories there. Haven't they heard of the Soviet loving Union in 1943

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:38

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009

CNN interviewed a Ukrainian fighter pilot and a lot of what he said is pretty wild stuff. Like it sounds like there's honest to God dogfights going on over the skies of Ukraine even a month into the war when the Russians have a clear numerical advantage in warplanes.
Inside the race to prevent Russia gaining full control of the skies above Ukraine

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/23/europe/ukraine-pilot-battle-skies-cmd-intl/index.html

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:40

Tamba: Apr 5, 2010

Saladman posted:

Is there any EU government that hasn't blocked RT? Maybe like ... Hungary? I don't know of any easy way of checking which websites are blocked in which countries.

I can access rt.com from Germany, but I'm not using my ISP's DNS servers, so there might still be a DNS level block.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:40

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Charliegrs posted:

CNN interviewed a Ukrainian fighter pilot and a lot of what he said is pretty wild stuff. Like it sounds like there's honest to God dogfights going on over the skies of Ukraine even a month into the war when the Russians have a clear numerical advantage in warplanes.
Inside the race to prevent Russia gaining full control of the skies above Ukraine

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/23/europe/ukraine-pilot-battle-skies-cmd-intl/index.html

Dog fights were dead until now. Really we haven't even seen the technological advances that will end up making dog fights even crazier. Especially when you can have drone assisted dog fights

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:41

Dapper_Swindler: Feb 14, 2012; Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Eric Cantonese posted:

Here's a "No one in DC knows what the hell to do!" take that you might find interesting.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506476134455824387
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506476836020232193
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506478995856109573
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506479611500240896
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506483668541394946
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506484946755538945

yeah. sounds about right. i think a bunch of military big brains inflated the gently caress out of Russian military prowess for various reasons(justifying their jobs, contracts, genuine buying into Russian propaganda) plus most assumed it would turn into what they saw happen when the afghan goverment imploded, or 2014 ukraine or 2008 Georgia.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

The atrocities pile up and the certitude of victories there. Haven't they heard of the Soviet loving Union in 1943

clearly Putin hasn't.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:44

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Looks like the US did get the fancy e-warfare box shipped over here to get torn apart. I hope the Ukrainians made us pay through the nose
https://twitter.com/wipljw/status/1506673602015473670?t=S-Bg7nmPqUozVsZbvVHA_A&s=19

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:44

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

KitConstantine posted:

Interesting thread based on the French Ministry of Defense's assessments of Russian movements.
https://twitter.com/billroggio/status/1506764226609745920?s=20&t=SLdlvTcBuWM82-9rqR1WZw
The French assessment is more dire for the Ukrainians - specifically notes that the Ukrainian forces, if any, remaining in Luhansk have been cut off at this point and that the forces in Donbas are in danger of encirclement. They also show Russian forces as much closer to Dnipro and Mykolaiv than I've seen elsewhere. Different perspective.

Hm, that's curious. Can any French-speaking goons go through all this? It's a list of French assessments of the Ukrainian situation since March.

Just using Google Translate, though, it seems the French don't actually seem to mention the Luhansk pocket or the danger of encirclement in Donbass - that's Bill Oggio's assessment. But the really strange thing is that not mentioning the Luhansk pocket might make sense because if you look at a full list of French assessments over March, that pocket has been there since the 11th completely unchanged. On the 10th there's a note for the Donbass region saying that "The first junction between the Russian Forces coming from the North and the separatists is underway." On the 11th Luhansk takes on the shape it now has, but weirdly all the map numbers are mislabeled and there's no mention of anything happening in that region in their notes until maybe the 16th, when there's mention of a chemical release from bombardment in Donetsk. There's a lot of artillery and airstrikes reported by the map throughout the separatist regions on the 19th, but no commentary. In general, the French don't seem to view the Luhansk pocket as worth commentary, and seem to think that almost nothing whatsoever worth noting happened in the separatist regions since then either other than small territorial gains around Donetsk and a bunch of artillery. Which feels like kind of an odd take for what should be a fairly major pocketing.

Edit: Wrong link

Tomn fucked around with this message at 01:57 on Mar 24, 2022

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:45

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Tomn posted:

Hm, that's curious. Can any French-speaking goons go through all this?

Just using Google Translate, though, it seems the French don't actually seem to mention the Luhansk pocket or the danger of encirclement in Donbass - that's Bill Oggio's assessment. But the really strange thing is that not mentioning the Luhansk pocket might make sense because if you look at a full list of assessments over March, that pocket has been there since the 11th completely unchanged. On the 10th there's a note for the Donbass region saying that "The first junction between the Russian Forces coming from the North and the separatists is underway." On the 11th Luhansk takes on the shape it now has, but weirdly all the map numbers are mislabeled and there's no mention of anything happening in that region in their notes until maybe the 16th, when there's mention of a chemical release from bombardment in Donetsk. There's a lot of artillery and airstrikes reported by the map throughout the separatist regions on the 19th, but no commentary. In general, the French don't seem to view the Luhansk pocket as worth commentary, and seem to think that almost nothing whatsoever worth noting happened in the separatist regions since then either other than small territorial gains around Donetsk and a bunch of artillery. Which feels like kind of an odd take for what should be a fairly major pocketing.

I mean their map doesn't make a lot of sense either because some of the locations where they've drawn arrows are like a hundred kilometers away. So it's not like these cities are under siege yet.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:46

Sir John Falstaff: Apr 13, 2010

Tomn posted:

Hm, that's curious. Can any French-speaking goons go through all this?

Just using Google Translate, though, it seems the French don't actually seem to mention the Luhansk pocket or the danger of encirclement in Donbass - that's Bill Oggio's assessment. But the really strange thing is that not mentioning the Luhansk pocket might make sense because if you look at a full list of assessments over March, that pocket has been there since the 11th completely unchanged. On the 10th there's a note for the Donbass region saying that "The first junction between the Russian Forces coming from the North and the separatists is underway." On the 11th Luhansk takes on the shape it now has, but weirdly all the map numbers are mislabeled and there's no mention of anything happening in that region in their notes until maybe the 16th, when there's mention of a chemical release from bombardment in Donetsk. There's a lot of artillery and airstrikes reported by the map throughout the separatist regions on the 19th, but no commentary. In general, the French don't seem to view the Luhansk pocket as worth commentary, and seem to think that almost nothing whatsoever worth noting happened in the separatist regions since then either other than small territorial gains around Donetsk and a bunch of artillery. Which feels like kind of an odd take for what should be a fairly major pocketing.

For what it's worth, here are three current maps:

UK: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1506606693576228874
ISW: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20March%2023.pdf
France: https://www.defense.gouv.fr/ukraine-point-situation

UK and ISW don't seem to show that same pocket, although that doesn't necessarily mean France is wrong.

Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 01:56 on Mar 24, 2022

# ? Mar 24, 2022 01:48

Have Some Flowers!: Aug 27, 2004; Hey, I've got Navigate...

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

How can we to be surprised that the United States imperial empire is just hoping for a quick defeat of the ukrainians as a way to appease putin.

That's not what I picked up from the article, more that the US expected the Ukrainians to fail rather than hoping that they did. I think the US intelligentsia were primed after Afghanistan to expect an immediate collapse and, like the Russians, greatly underestimated Ukraine.

The article says that US (and allies) actions signal that they don't want Ukraine to lose, but they're fine with a slow costly (for Ukraine) win because that maximizes the punishment to Russia and Putin.

But I do agree with you that the US is very much acting in its self interest rather than taking some moral high ground, as usual.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:00

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Tamba posted:

I can access rt.com from Germany, but I'm not using my ISP's DNS servers, so there might still be a DNS level block.

I dug deeper into this here, out of interest. Sputnik is just behind a DNS block, Kremlin and TASS are blocking connections from Latvia, RIA and Interfax are being MITMed by my ISP into a warning page, RT is not connecting with an HSTS error (which is probably related to my ISP MITMing them as well).

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 02:11 on Mar 24, 2022

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:01

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Sir John Falstaff posted:

For what it's worth, here are three current maps:

UK: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1506606693576228874
ISW: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20March%2023.pdf
France: https://www.defense.gouv.fr/ukraine-point-situation

UK and ISW don't seem to show that same pocket, although that doesn't necessarily mean France is wrong.

I love the little disclaimer on the right of that map. It's like the UK is preparing a face save for Russia to taking place over and everything being completely renamed.

What we should be supplying Ukraine with is bridge building equipment. Because that would have the most lasting effect on this conflict. Because bridge building equipment utilized over mud creates surprise attack opportunities and changes the battlefield in a not easily detected way.

Early on I guess maybe middle of the conflict we saw the Russians would chop a shitload of trees down and lay them all behind or in front of the tank. I'm sure those things are happening in larger capacities. My theory is that hole Ukrainian trees are going to get chopped down by Russia to sell was bullshit and it was reality seeing forests getting deleted for a firewood and also makeshift Bridges

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 02:06 on Mar 24, 2022

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:01

Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

Marshal Prolapse posted:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/23/russia-us-military-leaders-communication/

Top Russian military leaders repeatedly decline calls from U.S., prompting fears of �sleepwalking into war� Lack of communication leaves the world�s two largest nuclear powers in the dark about explanations for military movements

Wait a second didn't the US and Russian defense depts set up safeguard communications a week into the war to prevent accidents?

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:09

koshmar: Oct 22, 2009; i'm not here

this isn't happening

Tamba posted:

I can access rt.com from Germany, but I'm not using my ISP's DNS servers, so there might still be a DNS level block.

Looks like it's resolving correctly in most of Europe

https://dnschecker.org/#A/rt.com

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:10

Despera: Jun 6, 2011

Lol big old US imperialism wants to appease thier 1/2nd biggest enemy is quite the take. Would explaim us flooding ukraine with weapons since forever

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:10

Edgar Allen Ho: Apr 3, 2017; by sebmojo

I called my cousin in Kazakhstan again today. Seems like in addition to absolutely torpedoing "brotherly slavs" for the next few generations, kazakhs are out with Russia too. The within-living-memory genocide didn't help (my wife only has a kazakh mom bc her dad's family got deported there for undesirability while kazakhs got starved out in a ~~genocide~~natural famine), January really didn't help, but Kazakhstan was always in a rock and a hard place given the other nearby superpower is driving uighur refugees into KZ.

Nowadays though, there's a strong "gently caress you, we'd be next" sentiment according to him. Mercifully kazakhs are being very warm to the russians and part-kazakh part-russians arriving. He's in a hostel that's currently like 4/5 young men from Russia. GG Vova.

He said he's cool doing a QA thing on my wife's twitch when he gets here, so I might rip it to youtube to post. This thread gets lots of speculation about what russians think vs actual russians posting. And there's very little anglophone info coming out that isn't from the big western cities.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:14

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Grouchio posted:

Wait a second didn't the US and Russian defense depts set up safeguard communications a week into the war to prevent accidents?

They also had a meeting in Moscow last week
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/23/politics/us-russia-general-meeting/index.html

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:15

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

KitConstantine posted:

Oh I'm not talking about that kind of take - which honestly makes sense to me. I'm talking about the guys who said that Biden should have somehow done more to stop the war by ??? But simultaneously shouldn't have talked to China after it started because it made the US look weak.

Or the ones who say the US/NATO antagonized Russia and that's why the war started, but are also pissed Biden isn't leading the charge on sanctions. The incoherent takes.

He's an American president and/or a Democrat; axiomatically whatever he did was incorrect and a gently caress-up. Do you expect me to change my axioms purely because new evidence came to light?

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:16

Blockhouse: Sep 7, 2014; You Win!

If the US wanted to appease Putin I'm almost sure the government wouldn't have led a global initiative to choke the life of the country's' economy.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:16

Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

KitConstantine posted:

They also had a meeting in Moscow last week
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/23/politics/us-russia-general-meeting/index.html

So what the gently caress, Washington Post?

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:17

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

Eric Cantonese posted:

Here's a "No one in DC knows what the hell to do!" take that you might find interesting.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506476134455824387

Some important context is Niall Ferguson works for the Hoover Institution. It's a) right wing and b) a haven for folks of the Bush admin. Condoleezza Rice is the current director.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 02:27 on Mar 24, 2022

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:21

Despera: Jun 6, 2011

Im sure threatening china with sanctions if the sold russia arms came off as weak but there only so much you can do

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:21

Fuligin: Oct 27, 2010; wait what the fuck??

Discendo Vox posted:

Some important context is Niall Ferguson works for the Hoover Institution.

and is an all around twit, a pseudo intellectual figure of the right

but i guess that is redundant with your post actually

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:24

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Grouchio posted:

So what the gently caress, Washington Post?

To be fair it seems the meeting might have been secret and CNN got a leak, so not fair to blame em for getting scooped.

*technically* a meeting isn't talking on the phone after all.

Edit: content - apparently a Russia-leaning Ukrainian oligarch was trying to bolster the "nazi" accusations pre-invasion by commissioning some street art
https://twitter.com/NoahShachtman/status/1506798892955877382?t=XSmjTd3y7v3zhrcNT3Q8zw&s=19

quote:

The alleged plot, according to multiple sources, involved Pavel Fuks, a real estate, banking, and oil magnate who, the sources claim, was co-opted by Russian security forces to participate. Through intermediaries, Fuks allegedly offered between $500 and $1,500 for street level criminals to vandalize city streets with pro-Nazi graffiti in December, January, and February.

Said oligarch is Jewish, by the way.

KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 02:30 on Mar 24, 2022

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:26

Kraftwerk: Aug 13, 2011; i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

gently caress this blackpilled poo poo. Nobody is ceding Ukraine. This is an issue that's united a lot of popular support for Ukraine among the voters and peoples of various Western countries. We should add even more support to them and do a Marshall Plan for them if they win and get their country back. Then we should install fortifications in their borders and turn them into a NATO style military.

The Ukrainians are handling themselves like the Cadians in the Warhammer Franchise. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't end up learning a few things from THEM after the war is over.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:27

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Grouchio posted:

So what the gently caress, Washington Post?

Right, so apparently there's three different things going on, which is what the three different articles are talking about.

quote:

Repeated attempts by the United States� top defense and military leaders to speak with their Russian counterparts have been rejected by Moscow for the last month, leaving the world�s two largest nuclear powers in the dark about explanations for military movements and raising fears of a major miscalculation or battlefield accident.

Since Russia�s invasion of Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have tried to set up phone calls with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov but the Russians �have so far declined to engage,� said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby in a statement Wednesday.

The attempted calls by Austin and Milley, which have not previously been reported, come as Russia conducts operations near the borders of NATO members Poland and Romania while the United States and its European allies conduct air-policing operations over the Baltic Sea and pour weapons and equipment into Ukraine by ground transport.

Moscow and Washington maintain a deconfliction channel but current and former officials say contact from higher-ranking military leaders is needed to avoid unnecessary escalation or confusion.

�There is a high risk of escalation without the firebreak of direct contact between the most senior officials,� said James Stavridis, who served as the Supreme Allied Commander at NATO from 2009 to 2013. �Very young people are flying in jets, operating warships, and conducting combat operations in the Ukrainian war. They are not seasoned diplomats, and their actions in the heat of operations can be misunderstood.�

�We must avoid a scenario of NATO and Russia sleepwalking into war because senior leaders can�t pick up a phone and explain to each other what is happening,� he added.

Russia�s recent use of hypersonic missiles and other sophisticated weaponry against targets in western Ukraine have underscored the threat of spillover into a broader confrontation.

�The risks are obviously elevated currently,� said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. �Russia is striking targets in western Ukraine, which are not far from the border with NATO members, and the Ukrainian Air Force apparently continues to operate from that region, which means there is a risk that its aircraft could be mistaken for NATO aircraft across the border.�

U.S. defense officials have described the deconfliction phone line as a tactical mechanism to avoid miscalculations, especially when it comes to protecting NATO airspace or territory, but its functionality can be limited.

�It�s not set up to be a complaint line where you can just call in and just grouse about stuff,� said a U.S. defense official this week when asked about whether anything had been communicated through the channel. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon.

Sam Charap, a senior political scientist at Rand Corporation, said calls by Austin and Milley serve a �fundamentally different purpose� than the deconfliction channel.

�One is about tactical accident avoidance. The other about strategic engagement,� he said. �It�s always important to maintain the strategic level to communicate our interests clearly and better understand theirs. When there�s no communication at that level, their worst-case assumptions, often based on poor information, are more likely to drive their behavior.�

As Russia�s battlefield setbacks become more pronounced and the conflict nears its second month, U.S. officials are concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin may escalate militarily in the hopes of changing the trajectory of the war. As more dangerous weaponry and tactics are deployed, the risks of a wider conflict grow.

�A nightmare scenario would be a Russian missile or attack aircraft that destroys a U.S. command post across the Polish-Ukrainian border,� said Stavridis, a retired admiral. �A local commander might respond immediately, thinking the event was a precursor to a wider attack. This could lead to rapid and irreversible escalation, to include potential use of nuclear weapons.�

Stavridis said when he was Supreme Allied Commander, he could dial his Russian counterpart anytime �and did on several occasions to clarify a situation and de-escalate.�

The Pentagon holds the view that engagement between the U.S. and Russian defense leaders is �critically importance at this time,� Kirby said. Besides the deconfliction channel, the United States and Russia can also engage through the defense attache at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow or the relaying of messages to the Ministry of Defense.

Communications between the United States and Russia have been much more sparse since the war began last month. The U.S. ambassador to Russia, John J. Sullivan, has met with Russian officials most frequently with on and off visits and calls in Moscow. President Biden�s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, spoke to his counterpart, Nikolay Patrushev, last week for the first time since the start of the conflict. Some U.S. and Russian military officials met last week at the Russian Ministry of Defense, CNN first reported.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has not attempted any conversations with his counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, since the start of the conflict, according to U.S. officials.

It remains unclear why Russia�s top generals have refused to hold calls with their U.S. counterparts.

�I suspect that the problem lies with the Russian insistence that this is a �special military operation� and unwillingness to admit the real nature of the war,� said Angela Stent, a Russia scholar at Georgetown University who served as a senior intelligence officer in the Bush administration.

The generals may also be waiting on Putin�s approval to make the calls, given the high stakes of the conflict, and he may not be signing off, Charap said.

Another theory is that Putin may now view the United States as a determined adversary bent on his downfall and not worth engaging. Russian officials bristled at Biden calling Putin a �war criminal,� saying it could lead to a complete break in relations.
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Biden has sought to avoid a conflict by keeping U.S. troops out of Ukraine and U.S. aircraft out of its airspace.

�You�re talking about avoiding incidents with aircraft or at sea,� said Ben Hodges, a retired Army officer who served as commanding general of the U.S. Army Europe. �I�m sure they would�ve wanted to convey to Gerasimov and Shoigu that Russian pilots should not be launching missiles too close to the Polish border, but they would also want to talk about other places, not just Ukraine, where you have Russian aircraft.�

�I would also imagine they would want to convey � here�s what we�re doing, don�t interpret what we�re doing as a provocative act,� he added.

Discendo Vox posted:

Some important context is Niall Ferguson works for the Hoover Institution.

He is also an extremely poo poo historian who thinks the British Empire was Good, Actually, and that Britain should have stayed out of WW1 and teamed up with the Germans to dominate Europe under one peaceful banner and keep the US from achieving global dominance.

Edit: Also I just got around to reading the ISW report today and boy, this is a hell of a line.

quote:

We do not report in detail on the deliberate Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure and attacks on unarmed civilians, which are war crimes, because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Tomn fucked around with this message at 02:32 on Mar 24, 2022

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:28

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Tomn posted:

Right, so apparently there's three different things going on, which is what the three different articles are talking about.

He is also an extremely poo poo historian who thinks the British Empire was Good, Actually, and that Britain should have stayed out of WW1 and teamed up with the Germans to dominate Europe under one peaceful banner and keep the US from achieving global dominance.

Thing is that the two generals called out in the WaPo article haven't been seen in person for days, which a lot of the Ukrainian and indie Russian press reported on today. So it's not surprising they aren't picking up the phone seeing as they're likely either dead or under arrest

Maybe the Washington Post should have included that context too

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:33

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

OddObserver posted:

In lighter non-news:
https://twitter.com/SevaUT/status/1506697963892006912?cxt=HHwWgICzmZf07ugpAAAA

The elite warrior poets have been deployed. Pray that they don't send their philosopher kings.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:34

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1506644669362540548

They are using Clearview AI tech to ID dead Russians and then using the information to contact their families in Russia to inform them of it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f0867da3721787d

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:37

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 31, 2024 15:51

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Sir John Falstaff posted:

For what it's worth, here are three current maps:

UK: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1506606693576228874
ISW: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20March%2023.pdf
France: https://www.defense.gouv.fr/ukraine-point-situation

UK and ISW don't seem to show that same pocket, although that doesn't necessarily mean France is wrong.

Interestingly, the ISW report includes this note:

quote:

Supporting Effort #1a�Luhansk Oblast:

Russian forces continued efforts to advance in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, concentrating on limited ground attacks on Popasna and Avdiivka and missile strikes on Kramatorsk airfield.[13]

Note: We have updated our map of northeastern Ukraine to show Russian control over considerably more terrain than we had previously assessed. This change reflects newly acquired historical data rather than new Russian gains. We do NOT assess that Russian forces have made significant territorial gains in northeastern Ukraine for several days, and the revised control of terrain in this part of the theater does NOT reflect new Russian advances or the consolidation of Russian control.

So both the French report and the ISW agree that Russia controls a lot of the area and has done for a while, and that nothing has really been happening there for a while now. They disagree in whether or not the pocket has actually be closed yet. Neither of them have any comment on how many troops are in that potential pocket.

KitConstantine posted:

Thing is that the two generals called out in the WaPo article haven't been seen in person for days, which a lot of the Ukrainian and indie Russian press reported on today. So it's not surprising they aren't picking up the phone seeing as they're likely either dead or under arrest

Maybe the Washington Post should have included that context too

Yeah, that's important context - but it doesn't change the main point of worry, which is "Hey, nobody in Russia is picking up the phone to discuss strategic deconfliction." Whether that's because Russia is throwing a hissy fit, or because they're currently getting waterboarded by Putin, either way the end result is the worrying same.

# ? Mar 24, 2022 02:42

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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