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fnox posted:I know nothing about stock markets, but couldn't they just cook the numbers? Or otherwise manipulate the market until it spits out nicer numbers to report? my understanding is they're only allowing trading on a limited number of companies (big, important ones) and it could easily be the case they're just going to print rubles to buy up stock in them to prop up the price
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Mar 24, 2022 15:10
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mobby_6kl posted:Have they ever stepped away from that?
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Mar 24, 2022 15:12
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CommieGIR posted:They haven't replaced the multitude of supplies they are importing like electronics, food items, etc. It will likely crash again. Despite what Russia is claiming, they can't just 'nationalize' factories without the globalized supplies these factories needed to operate and produce. And given even before this, corruption and outright theft in the production of components, especially military ones, was rampant, unless they are suddenly going to tighten that belt? They cannot just 'replace' these lost companies and logistics. It's mainly I think for show mainly for the public that isn't clued in. They can keep the facsimile of everything being ok for as long as they can before the cracks really start to appear. Basically buying time while they try to find any sort of workable solution. This rarely works.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:13
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mobby_6kl posted:Have they ever stepped away from that? The 'negotiators' Russia sent said they had to the press multiple times. Enough that a bunch of people pretty credulously believed Russia actually had dropped those demands. In other news, Russia continues down the 'Orwellian Cliche' checklist https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1506989247903019014?s=20&t=0hQWAqLeWGQtA64taGmgcQ
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Mar 24, 2022 15:13
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Have the Russians clarified what denazification means beyond that statement by Lavrov a few days ago? https://tass.com/world/1424165 If it's something like this then that should be acceptable, no?
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Mar 24, 2022 15:16
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steinrokkan posted:Operation Flashpoint's expansion Resistance is very relevant, it even has a mission to steal a bunch of tanks from literally under the Russians' noses Back when I played resistance I thought all the equipment-stealing was just plain unrealistic, looks like I was wrong.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:16
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mobby_6kl posted:Shoigu died on the way back to his home planet That’s failing his life‘s purpose of Collecting sticks and pieces of wood on Planet Tanna Tuva.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:17
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tractor fanatic posted:Have the Russians clarified what denazification means beyond that statement by Lavrov a few days ago? no, but in practice it has always been clear it means "removing anyone with a smidgen of independence from the ukranian government in favor of russian puppets"
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Mar 24, 2022 15:18
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Nathan Ruser just put out a long thread with updated maps, including his perception of what areas Ukraine has re-captured https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1506986354240294913?s=20&t=d-GxyDxIkbNhz9HBkBtqQQ Long and image-heavy but I think a good overview of Russian movements over the course of the month. KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 15:22 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 15:19
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CommieGIR posted:They haven't replaced the multitude of supplies they are importing like electronics, food items, etc. It will likely crash again. Despite what Russia is claiming, they can't just 'nationalize' factories without the globalized supplies these factories needed to operate and produce. And given even before this, corruption and outright theft in the production of components, especially military ones, was rampant, unless they are suddenly going to tighten that belt? They cannot just 'replace' these lost companies and logistics. Sure a lot of their companies may become effectively worthless, but the stock market is just concerned about what values their stocks are, not you know if they are actually functional bankrupt or not. was just wondering if they could control the actual stock values. Do stuff like like report high values, but stop people from selling. Stuff like that. They've hosed around so much with the rest of the economy making there stock market effectively meaningless, just to make it look like everything's going well, might be a thing they'd actually consider. Seen authoritarian regimes in economic collapse do stupider, more pointless things.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:19
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Pookah posted:I'd never heard about this incident, it's really striking how completely the tone has changed between then and the Putin regime. It's also an event card in Twilight Struggle 
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Mar 24, 2022 15:19
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Swedish parliament yesterday unanimously approved sending another 5000 AT4s to Ukraine. Plus some mine clearance equipment or something like that
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Mar 24, 2022 15:20
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Wylie posted:Yeah, the 80's were more "is Reagan or whatever senile Communist is currently in charge at the Kremlin going to push the big glowing red button or not?" than this is. Nobody ever feared a ground war in Europe, we figured it would start and end with nukes. I was 1 so don’t remember too much but able archer 83 seemed pretty tense
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Mar 24, 2022 15:22
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dr_rat posted:Sure a lot of their companies may become effectively worthless, but the stock market is just concerned about what values their stocks are, not you know if they are actually functional bankrupt or not. was just wondering if they could control the actual stock values. Do stuff like like report high values, but stop people from selling. Stuff like that. They've hosed around so much with the rest of the economy making there stock market effectively meaningless, just to make it look like everything's going well, might be a thing they'd actually consider. Despite how much a stock market is a just a casino for the wealthy, the companies still have to produce something to create that myth of value or they will crash it. Right now: They largely cannot do that. Putin can pretend he can nationalize the whole thing, but its just a song and a dance.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:22
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evilweasel posted:no, but in practice it has always been clear it means "removing anyone with a smidgen of independence from the ukranian government in favor of russian puppets" right, that's always been the implication, but if the Ukrainians can agree to their public definition, which says nothing about removing officials, then it can be acceptable to all parties, i think
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Mar 24, 2022 15:22
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evilweasel posted:my understanding is they're only allowing trading on a limited number of companies (big, important ones) and it could easily be the case they're just going to print rubles to buy up stock in them to prop up the price They are allowing internal trading of stocks in those companies, which is easily manipulated by the state. Keep in mind that 82% of the stock in the Russian markets are owned by foreign investors who are barred from selling their stakes in Russian companies.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:24
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tractor fanatic posted:right, that's always been the implication, but if the Ukrainians can agree to their public definition, which says nothing about removing officials, then it can be acceptable to all parties, i think there are certainly constructions of russian demands that could be met with a fig leaf, yeah. but getting to those constructions will require significant battlefield victories because they're not what putin actually wants, and those victories will be significant enough that fig leaf or no fig leaf, anyone with a tiny bit of sense will know what the reality of the peace deal is. the reality blocking a peace deal isn't coming up with face-saving mechanisms. it's that russia wants ukraine to be a poor puppet state that has to do as it's told and won't agree to anything else, and ukraine (sensibly) will not agree to any peace that doesn't ensure it has a strong enough defense to keep that peace and tell russia to gently caress off next time it makes a demand, rather than the peace deal basically be a one-year ceasefire. those are entirely incompatible objectives, so there's no peace possible until one side loses badly enough to cave on it. evilweasel fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 15:25
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tractor fanatic posted:right, that's always been the implication, but if the Ukrainians can agree to their public definition, which says nothing about removing officials, then it can be acceptable to all parties, i think Who would be doing the deciding on when the 'denazification' was complete, should Ukraine agree to this - which they won't? Because if it's Russia then you run into the issue outlined - aka nothing will ever be enough. If it's Ukraine, Russia will *still* say nothing is ever enough. Because it's a pretext and not a real demand or interest on Russia's part. There's absolutely no reason to assume Russia is operating in good faith, and at this point it's borderline willfully ignorant to do so.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:25
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tractor fanatic posted:Have the Russians clarified what denazification means beyond that statement by Lavrov a few days ago? No "cancelling the laws encouraging Nazi ideology and practice" is transparent code for Russia getting veto control over Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy. Because remember, Russia uses a special definition of Nazi which is 'opposing Russia'. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 15:28
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Photo from the chief pilot of a Finnish cargo ship  https://twitter.com/LukkariHannu/status/1506663774631219217?s=20&t=coElJGrPtyQv8inANzoSkA
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Mar 24, 2022 15:28
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Djarum posted:God I wish someone would make a new US Navy Fighters. I probably spent more time with that and Falcon 3.0 than just about anything back in the early/mid 90s. Falcon 4.0 and the LOMAC/DCS addiction came later. The most recent game that hits that "Sim but not super complicated study sim" niche like US Navy Fighters would probably be Strike Fighters 2, but it's been almost a decade since the last official content was released for that. It's still a fun game, if overpriced for how old it is. Mostly focuses on the cold war from 56-91 (Fictional Europe gone hot, Israel-Arab wars, Vietnam) but it's absurdly moddable and if you combine a few of the big mods together you can fly basically any military plane from 1950-2000 with modded campaigns ranging from Sweden and Finland vs. Russia to a number of early 90s fictional scenarios of Ukraine backed up by the US fighting off a Russian invasion. Like when I say "any plane with mods" even weird poo poo like the Tu-128 and the A-5 Vigilante. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 15:36 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 15:33
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evilweasel posted:the reality blocking a peace deal isn't coming up with face-saving mechanisms. it's that russia wants ukraine to be a poor puppet state that has to do as it's told and won't agree to anything else, and ukraine (sensibly) will not agree to any peace that doesn't ensure it has a strong enough defense to keep that peace and tell russia to gently caress off next time it makes a demand, rather than the peace deal basically be a one-year ceasefire. those are entirely incompatible objectives, so there's no peace possible until one side loses badly enough to cave on it. i agree that russia started this war with that aim, but at this point i think that goal is no longer a possibility. that doesn't mean the russians will take face-saving measures now, but if one of your demands is "denazification", it's hard to walk it back.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:36
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tractor fanatic posted:Have the Russians clarified what denazification means beyond that statement by Lavrov a few days ago? I don't think Russia should get a say in how a sovereign nation runs its business, no. It's not acceptable IMO.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:37
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tractor fanatic posted:Have the Russians clarified what denazification means beyond that statement by Lavrov a few days ago? The thing is apart from literally one law, the law on language that restricts use of Russian and other languages in education, official governmental communications, and service industry, there is nothing on the books that can even remotely be construed as discriminatory against minorities. Maaaaaybe, if you squint, the ban of communist parties (along with all nazi parties). But it's hardly something to go to war about. If that's all they get in terms of denazification, it would be outright humiliating. Of course, propaganda can spin anything into a decisive victory at this point. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 15:38
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Satellite images of the damage to the ships and the dock are coming out now https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1506996489205297158?s=20&t=5cNHKCmq4BcqCWji-RU5uA https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1506994570755727371?s=20&t=Dqb1y2JJ-5dhGR7p7UmyIw Apparently the sailing in circles could be for functional checks. Also the plume of smoke from the dock has been measured as stretching for over 25 kilometers. Which makes sense as it seems a fuel/oil depot on the dock was also hit. They won't be using that dock for unloading supplies any time soon.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:38
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KitConstantine posted:Photo from the chief pilot of a Finnish cargo ship There must be a minimum amount of cargo to transport required to actually make it cost effective to sail right (assuming it's not going to be full on the way back, and make up loss there)
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Mar 24, 2022 15:39
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tractor fanatic posted:i agree that russia started this war with that aim, but at this point i think that goal is no longer a possibility. that doesn't mean the russians will take face-saving measures now, but if one of your demands is "denazification", it's hard to walk it back. I tend to agree with Estonia; at this point nothing but a complete Russian defeat would be an armistice only. Russia needs to lose completely, including being forced to cede control of Crimea or this not only gives the green light to dictators everywhere—just start a brutal enough war and you will be rewarded—but also would just allow Putin some breathing space to prepare for round two.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:39
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Charles Ingalls posted:I was 1 so don’t remember too much but able archer 83 seemed pretty tense Yeah, the possibility of some combination of human and technical error killing us all like that was a concern. Like the false alarm incident earlier in 1983.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:44
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https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1506929081614581767?s=20&t=GJc6jCNNoD8BEgfHXohb6Q
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Mar 24, 2022 15:44
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ZombieLenin posted:I tend to agree with Estonia; at this point nothing but a complete Russian defeat would be an armistice only. even in the event of a total military victory for ukraine, the only leverage we have for crimea would be sanctions, and i think the ship sailed a lot time ago on the feasibility of sanctions forcing russia to give up a region they consider part of their country. worth remembering that russia can quite simply declare the operation over, turn around and leave. the sanctions would likely end in several years, or at least loosen. plus, there is again the pesky fact that we should probably consider what the crimeans want and they were never exactly an enthusiastic participant in the ukrainian enterprise.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:45
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tractor fanatic posted:i agree that russia started this war with that aim, but at this point i think that goal is no longer a possibility. that doesn't mean the russians will take face-saving measures now, but if one of your demands is "denazification", it's hard to walk it back. Then redefine denazification. Already there are reports that Russians are requesting streets in Ukraine named after Stepan Bandera and other far-right figures be renamed. Easy enough. You'd probably also have to do something about the Azov Battalion to give Russia another win. Maybe some kind of independent investigation of war crimes and dismissal of open neo-Nazis?
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Mar 24, 2022 15:46
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So some details came out on why all the Russian diplomats got expelled from Poland. The poster is the director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), I'm guessing he knows of which he speaks https://twitter.com/SlawomirDebski/status/1506954120342786052?s=20&t=5cNHKCmq4BcqCWji-RU5uA Context on the Vrbětice in his reply but here's the wikipedia link, specifically to a certain section: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Vrb%C4%9Btice_ammunition_warehouses_explosions#Involvement_of_Russian_GRU Relevant text: quote:According to the Security Information Service and the Police of the Czech Republic, the depot explosions were probably engineered by Russian military intelligence (GRU) officers.[4] ...Two Russian intelligence officers Alexander Mishkin and Anatoliy Chepiga suspected of carrying out the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in 2018 were alleged to have been involved in the explosions. Mishkin and Chepiga reportedly arrived to Prague from Moscow on 13 October 2014 and left on 16 October. They requested permission to visit the warehouses for the period of 13–17 October from Imex, using fake passports of citizens of Tajikistan and Moldova (Chepiga as Ruslan Tabarov, Mishkin as Nicolaj Popa).[23] Although no one saw them in the ammunition depot, the investigators believe that both visited Vrbětice as potential arms buyers.[24][21][25] Poland didn't take the 'joke' well, it seems
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Mar 24, 2022 15:47
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ZombieLenin posted:I tend to agree with Estonia; at this point nothing but a complete Russian defeat would be an armistice only. Speaking of Crimea, the Ukraine MoD posted this on their Facebook yesterday: Google Translation posted:Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine At this point I'm assuming it's propaganda as there's no way to verify it. There were reports earlier, though, of Russians panic selling their apartments in Crimea, so maybe this is related. Anyway, it seems like it's worth keeping an eye on. If there seems to be a lot of panic flight from Crimea, we'll know that the insiders think things are going very badly for Russia.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:48
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mobby_6kl posted:Shoigu died on the way back to his home planet General Shoigu's plane was shot down over the Black Sea. It spun in. There were no survivors.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:49
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William Bear posted:Then redefine denazification. Already there are reports that Russians are requesting streets in Ukraine named after Stepan Bandera and other far-right figures be renamed. Easy enough. You'd probably also have to do something about the Azov Battalion to give Russia another win. Maybe some kind of independent investigation of war crimes and dismissal of open neo-Nazis? The problem is that gives weight to the argument Russia was really interested in Nazis. Which is the #1 'see they are the good guys' argument being used. Ukraine has a Nazi problem but so does most of Europe (and America). Trying to claim they are extra bonus Nazi basically gives Russia retroactive justification. Ukraine, if nothing else, needs to end thus with it being clear Russia were illegitimate invaders, not brave Nazi stoppers.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:55
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CommieGIR posted:https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1506929081614581767?s=20&t=GJc6jCNNoD8BEgfHXohb6Q I would like to extend my congratulations to 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade Tank Battalion for winning back-to-back 2021 and 2022 tank team competition.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:55
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tractor fanatic posted:right, that's always been the implication, but if the Ukrainians can agree to their public definition, which says nothing about removing officials, then it can be acceptable to all parties, i think What if we rules lawyer the heck out of Russia, surely they would be honor bound to accept this!!! The reality is that while Russia hasn't put into writing what exactly denazification and demilitarization means, it's not too difficult to discern from public statements and the events following the occupation of Crimea and LNR/DNR. Ethnic cleansing, puppet government, LNR/DNR as partly or fully autonomous regions with veto rights, Russian military bases and the decapitation of the Ukrainian military.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:56
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Concerned Citizen posted:even in the event of a total military victory for ukraine, the only leverage we have for crimea would be sanctions, and i think the ship sailed a lot time ago on the feasibility of sanctions forcing russia to give up a region they consider part of their country. worth remembering that russia can quite simply declare the operation over, turn around and leave. the sanctions would likely end in several years, or at least loosen. plus, there is again the pesky fact that we should probably consider what the crimeans want and they were never exactly an enthusiastic participant in the ukrainian enterprise. I mean a total military defeat and an expulsion of Russian troops from Crimea.
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Mar 24, 2022 15:59
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Saoshyant posted:Edit: according to the Twitter thread below, it seems hackers have taken down a bunch of Belarus' online government infrastructure, including internal networks. FYI, we’ve had a lot of dud counter hacking stories this month. CommieGIR posted:If I had to guess, it'll go up slightly, but its gonna crash back down again. The thing to keep in mind is that they’ve banned foreigners from selling stuff. Cimber posted:I haven't been keeping up to the news the past 24-48 hours. What happened with that rumor about counterattacks and possible pocketing of Russian troops north of Kyiv? Still mostly at rumour stage. fnox posted:I know nothing about stock markets, but couldn't they just cook the numbers? Or otherwise manipulate the market until it spits out nicer numbers to report? That’s what they’re doing already. Price typically crashes when there’s excessive selling, to simplify, and they’ve disallowed foreigners to sell anything from the Russian exchange. dr_rat posted:Will it though? How independent is the Russian stock exchange, and if there's no outside people buying and selling can the Russian government just gently caress with it? It’s not independent at all, but with state controls like right now talking about rouble exchange rate etcetera is moot point - it’s Monopoly money, basically.
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Mar 24, 2022 16:01
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The "Denazification" thing is Putin's version of Bush's "WMD's in Iraq". Giving any credence to the claim even obliquely means it wasn't a lie cooked up as a causus belli.
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Mar 24, 2022 16:03
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