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Sorry if this has been posted and I missed it.. There are some indications that Russia may be inching closer to general mobilization: https://mobile.twitter.com/RuslanLeviev/status/1507061633255985155 Tweet translation from Google: quote:We are receiving more and more messages from the regions of Russia about agendas “on issues of military registration” even to those who have long passed the military age (35-45). Already upon arrival at the military registration and enlistment office, they offer to sign a short-term contract, they try to lure with money, benefits The screenshot is supposedly a summons to show up to the military recruitment center
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Mar 25, 2022 12:37
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I think some people will join army after losing their job. It's suprising Russian Gov didn't include some kind of loan protection agreement for the time served. I vaguely recall people having their loan interest paid when drafted in Poland.
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Mar 25, 2022 12:40
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Alchenar posted:something something joke about US police in a country where everyone is brown skinned I was naive enough at the time to not consider that, and they were in a town that literally ran Saddam's army out, but....yeahhhhh.... 
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Mar 25, 2022 12:42
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SirTagz posted:Sorry if this has been posted and I missed it.. These new Russian recruits wouldn't even get to the lines for like 30 days right? Or are they going to resort to sending untrained teenagers now?
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Mar 25, 2022 12:43
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alex314 posted:Whole video is pretty amazing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3cWMQUmBXQ Hope they weren't planning to use that TEL again as it looked like it got toasted.
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Mar 25, 2022 12:44
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It seems incredible that Russia could be running out of raw manpower. Equipment and elite units maybe but I thought they had close to a million active with 2 million reserves. No way has Ukraine made a dent in that. I half wonder if it isn't just hardware that's been undermined by corruption. Recruiters and commanders claiming to have more troops than they do a pocketing the pay cheques?
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Mar 25, 2022 12:45
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah i am honestly surprised how loving bad putin's propaganda is. outside various tankies and chuds and various stupid fucks like that, i dont see people buying into it. I feel like putin doesn't get that the calculations have changed for various reasons so all he and his ministers can do is double down infinite. There was a news item few weeks ago that everyone competent in the TV/media industry left or was leaving the country now that Putin put that "say something out of line and its 15 years in Siberia for you"-law in effect. So now that part of the country is also run by the yes-men, True Believers, and other stupid fucks who fail to see the signs of where this is going.
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Mar 25, 2022 12:45
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TulliusCicero posted:These new Russian recruits wouldn't even get to the lines for like 30 days right? I believe this is trying to re-enlist people who served before. So not untrained teenagers, more like dads who have not touched a weapon in a decade. That's likely better, but not by that much.
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Mar 25, 2022 12:46
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TulliusCicero posted:These new Russian recruits wouldn't even get to the lines for like 30 days right? Untrained 35-45 year olds
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Mar 25, 2022 12:46
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Trained 35-45 years olds, but their training was exclusively in institutionalised corruption and bullying.
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Mar 25, 2022 12:49
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I'm surprised they aren't doing reverse Azov 2014 and just conscripting whole football hooligans groups. In case they get torn to shreds assaulting some prepared defensive line the society will see it as a net gain.
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Mar 25, 2022 12:54
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Chalks posted:It seems incredible that Russia could be running out of raw manpower. They have lots more men but they're poorly trained and equipped reserve units that seemed to have been more meant for a defensive internal national security role. Almost like a conscript army from what I can tell. There was some commentary about them a few dozen pages ago and even the Russians think they're crap. The people the Russians have in Ukraine now are (were?) their (equivalent of) a professional, well trained, and well equipped proper military. They need a fair amount of time and resources to train up and properly equip the rest of their forces to anything like what they sent into Ukraine. Officially no one knows exactly how long that will take but many seemed to think it'll take more time than they can afford. If the Ukrainians are really wrecking as much equipment and people as they seem to be (combined with Russia's terrible logistics and equipment maintenance issues) than the Russians might indeed lose the war in a month or so.
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Mar 25, 2022 12:55
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Chalks posted:It seems incredible that Russia could be running out of raw manpower. Equipment and elite units maybe but I thought they had close to a million active with 2 million reserves. No way has Ukraine made a dent in that. Much of those numbers are conscripts, which are different than professional 'contract' soldiers. Putting conscripts in this 'special operation' is a third rail even Putin is wary of- some might recall much earlier reports of him vowing to punish whoever it was who let conscripts near the front lines against his explicit order. Relative fresh recruits may not be good for much, but they *might* be able to free up more experienced soldiers from other areas to be moved to Ukraine. Or it could be part of a long-term strategy to maintain force numbers in the coming years in the wake of a potential black eye for the military.
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Mar 25, 2022 12:56
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On the Russia fresh recruitments, it might more be a case that they are pushing most of their trained units to Ukraine, and are in need of placeholder units to just be there/seen on their various borders and errr, extra-territorial presence. Like, I presume they maintain a heavy presence in South Ossetia, but likely not one that is actually expected to be of any use apart from just being seen there so that Georgia doesn't attempt anything funny. That's the kind of units I could see redeployed to Ukraine and replaced by those fresh recruits. edit: ah, ninja'ed to it: TheDeadlyShoe posted:Relative fresh recruits may not be good for much, but they *might* be able to free up more experienced soldiers from other areas to be moved to Ukraine. Or it could be part of a long-term strategy to maintain force numbers in the coming years in the wake of a potential black eye for the military.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:01
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Yeah what we are seeing is increasingly desperate scrambling to do anything other than deliberately send conscripts into the fight, partly because they would be no good, partly because mass mobilisation would break the 'things are going fine' line, and probably partly because they will be well aware that 'mass mutinies in the army' is one of the scenarios that can be suddenly catastrophic for regime stability if they get just a little bit of momentum.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:03
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FishMcCool posted:On the Russia fresh recruitments, it might more be a case that they are pushing most of their trained units to Ukraine, and are in need of placeholder units to just be there/seen on their various borders and errr, extra-territorial presence. I guess it must suck running a country where you need constant military presents all over the place. Collapsing empire problems.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:05
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Marshal Prolapse posted:So what is the total now if this is confirmed? A. Arestovych, Invasion Explainer
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Mar 25, 2022 13:07
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gay picnic defence posted:Weren't there thought to be 20 or so in total to begin with? That would be any senior officers, not literal generals, and I don't keep tabs on that number. Just field officers could very well be past 20 KIA, confirmed by Russian sources. JerikTelorian posted:Would be nice to have this info linked in the op for easy access since the thread moves so fast. I will do that. fatherboxx posted:Ah someone finally found footage of Zelensky and Putin at a KVN concert from 20 years ago, wonderful for Adam Curtis It's either about chain letters, or about ruling for 90 years (to run census 9 times). Probably the former, I think the latter reading is a bit too informed by the current events.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:09
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 for POW, possibly injured, with plastic bags instead of boots.https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1507247424338866177 NBC quoting NATO estimates of 40,000 Russian dead, wounded or captured. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/up-to-40000-russian-soldiers-killed-wounded-captured-or-mia-nato-says.html The second is made more believable by the first.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:09
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Der Kyhe posted:There was a news item few weeks ago that everyone competent in the TV/media industry left or was leaving the country now that Putin put that "say something out of line and its 15 years in Siberia for you"-law in effect. oh yeah, i am not shocked, anyone with a brain or the ability to is getting the gently caress out hard and never looking bad. TulliusCicero posted:These new Russian recruits wouldn't even get to the lines for like 30 days right? its probably a mix of throwing bodies into the grinder and also putting whoever they can in various possible hot spots within the federation.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:10
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Alchenar posted:Yeah what we are seeing is increasingly desperate scrambling to do anything other than deliberately send conscripts into the fight, partly because they would be no good, partly because mass mobilisation would break the 'things are going fine' line, and probably partly because they will be well aware that 'mass mutinies in the army' is one of the scenarios that can be suddenly catastrophic for regime stability if they get just a little bit of momentum. Putin wouldn't be able to explain that it's only merely a 'special military exercise' either. If Russian society is told of mass mobilization akin to a major conflict, they're gonna be asking questions the Kremlin don't want asking.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:12
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Ola posted:
the dude above Bag boots post is just wearing a star wars tshirt and baseball cap along with a open uniform and is probably like 18 at oldest.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:13
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Chalks posted:I half wonder if it isn't just hardware that's been undermined by corruption. Recruiters and commanders claiming to have more troops than they do a pocketing the pay cheques? A good old fashioned ghost army? Apparently that was pretty popular in Afghanistan.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:13
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gay picnic defence posted:A good old fashioned ghost army? Apparently that was pretty popular in Afghanistan. they did it in chechnya too. probably in Georgia and Crimea/2014 but poo poo never went this far so it never became obvious.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:16
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Did Azov actually get wiped out? Can we stop talking about them for good now?
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Mar 25, 2022 13:18
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:Putin wouldn't be able to explain that it's only merely a 'special military exercise' either. If Russian society is told of mass mobilization akin to a major conflict, they're gonna be asking questions the Kremlin don't want asking. Also trite point but when you mobilise then your civilian economy stops. All of the economic problems that Russia has right now accelerate drastically.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:19
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gay picnic defence posted:A good old fashioned ghost army? Apparently that was pretty popular in Afghanistan. "Dead Souls" isn't a From software videogame.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:19
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fnox posted:Did Azov actually get wiped out? Can we stop talking about them for good now? possibly. it sounds like they are super hosed up at least. Zedsdeadbaby posted:Putin wouldn't be able to explain that it's only merely a 'special military exercise' either. If Russian society is told of mass mobilization akin to a major conflict, they're gonna be asking questions the Kremlin don't want asking. probably, but i think he is probably "safe"/delusional enough to say "gently caress it" and hit the draft button.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:20
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As far as we know they are still active, the part that is fighting in Mariupol is probably hosed, but ones in Kiyv will be fine. It's hard to ignore them since they have very visible media presence. We could probably stop comparing them to nazis, since it's unclear how much of that football hools skinhead spirit is still left there. My guess is not much.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:21
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That would be any senior officers, not literal generals, and I don't keep tabs on that number. Just field officers could very well be past 20 KIA, confirmed by Russian sources. I asked a Russian who says he recalls the Census 20 years ago was apparently a massive hassle so it's probably a joke about how much of a pain in the arse it was to fill out. To quote him: "I remember back in the 2000s there was some epic process of population census and this is a joke about it"
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Mar 25, 2022 13:22
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Alchenar posted:Also trite point but when you mobilise then your civilian economy stops. All of the economic problems that Russia has right now accelerate drastically. fnox posted:Did Azov actually get wiped out? Can we stop talking about them for good now? If they aren't already they probably will be in a week or so when Mariupol is captured. Of course then they become martyrs which probably isn't much better. At least it looks like they've taken more than their fair share of Russians with them I guess.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:24
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Zhanism posted:I think this is the wrong way to look at this. Everyone seems to envision a counter attack as some armored thrust into the rear of the enemy. I just don't think that's what fits here. Look at the current counter attacks by UA. They arent throwing armor and mechanized units head on. I think what we will see is more infantry lead, slower but more deliberate attacks. Infantry loaded with AT weapons and manpads taking point and armor as supporting role. I think this is an accurate assessment. We absolutely tend to think of offensives and counter-offensives as these large-motion events with big formations making dramatic maneuvers. You don't have to do that to win, though. Throughout history, armies have sought to conduct a battle of annihilation against their opponents. A swift, fell blow that ends the war. There have been many points in history where that was viable, and in fact what concluded this or that war. Both sides in the American Civil War started with that point of view, and the Army of Northern Virginia under General Robert E. Lee (on the Confederate side, for non-Americans in the thread) successfully crippled Union army after Union army. It didn't matter. The reason Ulysses S. Grant was a better general than Robert E. Lee wasn't because he was a brilliant maneuver commander (though he was quite good), but because he understood that due to the scale of armies raised neither side could annihilate the other in a single battle. Even horribly lopsided Confederate victories didn't destroy the Union army facing it; they merely pushed it back. So what did Grant do? He made contact with Lee's army and then kept contact. He understood it was fundamentally a battle of attrition rather than annihlation. The Ukrainian military can do the same thing. Remember too that modern infantry maneuver tactics do not involve running through a field with your weapon on full automatic. (I'm sorry movie industry.) It's mostly based on infiltration tactics, and while contact at the operational level may be continuous contact at the tactical level is not.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:24
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gay picnic defence posted:A good old fashioned ghost army? Apparently that was pretty popular in Afghanistan. Yeah it's been an almost universal carnival of discovery about actual military capacity vs. claimed military capacity, which was growing wild in the condition of putin's rule. Late Stage Republic is one thing, but Late Stage Dictatorship is absolutely loving buckass wild. military appointment and procurement were rotted out straight to a genuine and institutional core everything is a bandaid slapped over something else to provide good sounding official reports to the big guy so for a while now "on paper" readiness reports were doing fox news "some people say:" levels of prepositional framing fiction. but this was all said better in some of the stuff already linked in the thread
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Mar 25, 2022 13:25
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Excellent detailed analysis of current situation over the last day. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-24 quote:Immediate items to watch
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Mar 25, 2022 13:25
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Excellent detailed analysis of current situation over the last day. sounds about right. my guess is mauripoll will hold out a little longer then that since apparently the Ukrainians still hold the west of the city. also idk if they even can make landing with at least one of 4 big landing ships hosed to poo poo. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 13:34 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 13:31
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I'd love to know to what extent the Russian troops assaulting the city are getting bleed dry.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:34
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gay picnic defence posted:I'd love to know to what extent the Russian troops assaulting the city are getting bleed dry. probably a decent amount. its definetly taking away troops that could be getting killed on other fronts.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:35
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https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-assesses-up-60-failure-rate-some-russian-missiles-officials-say-2022-03-24/quote:Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion. Wonder how many of Russia's nukes actually work.
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Mar 25, 2022 13:36
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alex314 posted:As far as we know they are still active, the part that is fighting in Mariupol is probably hosed, but ones in Kiyv will be fine. Why would you guess so? Wouldnt fighting in an active warzone just further entrench their ingroup ideology?
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Mar 25, 2022 13:37
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-assesses-up-60-failure-rate-some-russian-missiles-officials-say-2022-03-24/ Even if 60% failed that would still probably be enough
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