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Message from a former President of Georgia (also former Governor of Odesa Oblast in Ukraine) to Lukashenka https://twitter.com/SaakashviliM/status/1507321790951051285?t=Tt62AUue8KDK4BKfcQ6HJA&s=19  How likely is Lukashenka to listen to him? Would appreciate some insight from those local to the region
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Mar 25, 2022 17:59
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Looks interesting, I'll add it. Cheers. Thanks. Kind of hard to tell what is and isn't real even in this thread sometimes.
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Mar 25, 2022 17:59
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with a rebel yell she QQd posted:Zelensky asked Orban to finally decide on whose side he is. I think I'm starting to dislike this Orban fella. I mean, "we can't risk Hungarian weapons shipments getting bombed"? Right, because we're hearing so many reports about the Polish shipments getting struck, right?
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Mar 25, 2022 17:59
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Maybe it's just a pattern of speech that isn't very common, but "you're going to see" as a way of saying "this is a thing that is going to happen" is immediately understandable to me? To me it's literally just a phrase that can mean that thing, and devoid of any other context that's the immediate jump my brain too, I guess if you need to interpret it very literally it would be "you're going to see this [on TV, in the newspaper, etc]". It just doesn't even seem like a mistake it's literally just a phrase that one could use in this context. Perhaps a poor choice of phrase to use, but not incorrect. Like, I get that shitheads are going to run with it as a sign Biden is either lying about getting involved (and dumb enough to risk WW3 in the process) or senile, but with even the slightest bit of charitability it holds up as a fine thing to say.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:01
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:It is absolutely going to be a long war. Neither side is likely to capitulate or gain enough of an advantage to overwhelm the other. The only way it won't be a long war is if it escalates into a wider conflict between Russia and NATO. I think so too. Russia can't just call it quits and keep territory until Ukraine is ground to dust, and even if Ukraine pushed Russia all the way back to the borders, what's the guarantee that Russia won't just dig their heels in and refuse a peace settlement until they feel they're at an advantage? This could go on for a very, very long time.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:02
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ik edit:  war porn compilationhttps://mobile.twitter.com/TourOfTheFuture/status/1506735346922541061 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 18:04
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Tomn posted:I think I'm starting to dislike this Orban fella. I mean, "we can't risk Hungarian weapons shipments getting bombed"? Right, because we're hearing so many reports about the Polish shipments getting struck, right? Trust me there was a lot to dislike before. Him and Poland started getting weird ideas about governance over the last few years. That’s said, to Poland‘s credit if I remember correctly, they’ve backed off a lot of goofy poo poo. Honestly Orban is far closer to Luca, then is Polish leadership.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:05
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Kraftwerk posted:Unless I’m horribly out of date, I thought harpoons were the mainline ASMs used by most of the US navy in concert with Exocet missiles for a lot of European navies and some less developed countries. Pretty sure the Iraqis and Argentinians have been able to score some pretty nasty hits with Exocets in the past. They are the mainline USN ASM. Compared to other new ASM in existence they are slow (subsonic), and have incredibly short range. This is a problem for the USN and has been for awhile. The real issue is that after the collapse of the Soviet Union the USN completely neglected its sea denial role and focused almost exclusively on blue water force projection—so air craft carriers and standard cruise missiles. It’s only very recently when it became clear that China was a real threat to Taiwan and that China’s main anti ship missile is not only is supersonic, but has a range 185nm farther than the Harpoon that the USN has spent any time or money trying modernize their ASM stockpiles. The thing is the USN desperately wants to replace the harpoon, but is years behind both China and Russia as far as deployable modern ASMs go. Honestly the most deadly sea denial munition the USN currently fields is the mk-48 torpedo carried by the USN submarine forces. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 18:05
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Well in fairness so are Russian delays in deployment. 
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Mar 25, 2022 18:06
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Tuna-Fish posted:I don't think this is true. Firstly, there is a lot of Russians in Kherson right now. There are photos of elements from 9 different BTGs there. I certainly hope that the Ukrainians will retake it, but there's a lot of work to do and unless the Russians just rout it will not be quick. You are making alot of assumptions that the Russian's are competent in the South versus the North. That hasn't held true, I'd argue the only reason there's more success in the South has been Ukrainian focus on Kyiv, not BTGs available. Its likely the same quality of troops and equipment, with maybe slightly better logistics availability due to port access. We haven't seen that the Southern force is any more competent.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:07
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KitConstantine posted:Message from a former President of Georgia (also former Governor of Odesa Oblast in Ukraine) to Lukashenka Lukashenko doesn't read twitter.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:07
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https://t.me/ramzan_kadyrov_95_tg/363 Off of Ramzan Kadyrovs' Telegram account showing propaganda with kids kitted out in gear.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:08
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ZombieLenin posted:The only thing I have read is that NATO was “discussing” sending the Ukrainians anti ship missiles. No discussion of type or origin in the article I read. Boeing did an upgrade on the Harpoons a couple years ago. The Harpoon Block II and II+ ER are massive upgrades and mainly an answer to the Naval Strike Missile. I imagine the US has a ton of Harpoons and a lot of upgraded ones that they would love to just send off to Ukraine to use so they can move entirely to the NSM and AGM-158C for the fleet. Which if there was an attack with Harpoons it would be a dozen or more for a larger ship. Smaller landing craft or patrol boats could be easily taken out with a small amount but the plan with using them against a larger vessel was to send a massive amount to hit at or near the waterline. You aren't going to take out a Cruiser or Destroyer with a single missile or two.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:09
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Tomn posted:I think I'm starting to dislike this Orban fella. Get in line, there's a long queue.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:09
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CommieGIR posted:You are making alot of assumptions that the Russian's are competent in the South versus the North. That hasn't held true, I'd argue the only reason there's more success in the South has been Ukrainian focus on Kyiv, not BTGs available. Its likely the same quality of troops and equipment, with maybe slightly better logistics availability due to port access. Also, Crimea has been a major supply depot in the buildup to the war. Restocking it isn't easy, there aren't a lot of connections. Once those supplies run out, the western end of the southern front may be more vulnerable.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:10
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Paladinus posted:Lukashenko doesn't read twitter. You think the only way this official communicated his opinion was via Twitter and this isn't just echoing his private communications to the person addressed?
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Mar 25, 2022 18:11
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CommieGIR posted:You are making alot of assumptions that the Russian's are competent in the South versus the North. That hasn't held true, I'd argue the only reason there's more success in the South has been Ukrainian focus on Kyiv, not BTGs available. Its likely the same quality of troops and equipment, with maybe slightly better logistics availability due to port access. The southern and donbas forces have been on "active" deployment before the invasion. It should figure there logistics and readiness being somewhat higher versus the troops deployed from garrison somewhere to a field in Belarus.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:11
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lilljonas posted:I think so too. Russia can't just call it quits and keep territory until Ukraine is ground to dust, and even if Ukraine pushed Russia all the way back to the borders, what's the guarantee that Russia won't just dig their heels in and refuse a peace settlement until they feel they're at an advantage? This could go on for a very, very long time. Question is how many tanks and missiles and bombs and planes and bullets does Russia have left. They can't manufacture more, the factories are shutting down and material shipments have slowed to a trickle. Their remaining planes are going to go down due to lack of maintenance soon enough. And that's before you consider the human costs. They've lost 6 or 7 out of 20ish generals in Ukraine at this point, they're having to pull in troops from the easternmost portion of the country and attempted to do so in Syria and Belarus. Even with a more widespread draft/conscription that's a lot of training that has to go on with the blind leading the blind. edit: exhibit A: double-decimation https://twitter.com/AntonLaGuardia/status/1507377677124132874
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Mar 25, 2022 18:12
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Rinkles posted:Do you think this will have an effect on the election? (Which way?) More votes for Orban. We have more and more reports on Ukrainian refugees getting beaten on the street. (For example this article in Hungarian: https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/03/25/okollel-utott-majd-a-foldon-rugdosott-tovabb-egy-ukran-menekultet-egy-tatabanyai-ferfi)
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Mar 25, 2022 18:12
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with a rebel yell she QQd posted:We have more and more reports on Ukrainian refugees getting beaten on the street. (For example this article in Hungarian: https://telex.hu/kulfold/2022/03/25/okollel-utott-majd-a-foldon-rugdosott-tovabb-egy-ukran-menekultet-egy-tatabanyai-ferfi) Honestly, heartbreaking and disappointing
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Mar 25, 2022 18:14
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Trust me there was a lot to dislike before. Him and Poland started getting weird ideas about governance over the last few years. That’s said, to Poland‘s credit if I remember correctly, they’ve backed off a lot of goofy poo poo. PiS copied a lot of Orban's methods: centralized and bought off a lot of press, tried to subdue legal system, etc. They are less successful, because Poland is bigger and more people look at what they do. Also people are less likely to just roll over and forget. They've backed out of centralizing and putinizing education system, there's a major battle going about legal system, which PiS is likely to quietly retreat from. Especially if EU uses some more carrot now.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:14
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Djarum posted:Boeing did an upgrade on the Harpoons a couple years ago. The Harpoon Block II and II+ ER are massive upgrades and mainly an answer to the Naval Strike Missile. I imagine the US has a ton of Harpoons and a lot of upgraded ones that they would love to just send off to Ukraine to use so they can move entirely to the NSM and AGM-158C for the fleet. Those are still subsonic and out ranged by both serious threats to the USN—the Chinese YJ-18 and the Russian SSC-5. Now with the hindsight of this war who knows how these navies would actually perform in a shooting war against the USN, but on paper both Russian and Chinese ships would be able to start lobbing supersonic anti ship missiles at American surface vessels over 100 miles outside of those USN ships ability to shoot back. Edit. The USN’s lack of sea denial capability versus her main possible opponents is a huge deal. The USN was so hyper focused on force projection from 1991 through about 2013 that US SSNs no longer even have standoff submarine launched harpoons. American SSNs would be forced to close to within range of the Mk-48 torpedo to engage a surface vessel. The USN is trying to fix that too. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 18:14
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KitConstantine posted:You think the only way this official communicated his opinion was via Twitter and this isn't just echoing his private communications to the person addressed? I doubt Mikheil Saakashvili is communicating with Lukashenko at all. He's not the President of Georgia.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:15
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KitConstantine posted:You think the only way this official communicated his opinion was via Twitter and this isn't just echoing his private communications to the person addressed? Saakashvili is in jail. And there is 0 chance Luka would care what he thinks even if it was otherwise.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:15
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https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1507403778198224913
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Mar 25, 2022 18:17
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Shes Not Impressed posted:I doubt Mikheil Saakashvili is communicating with Lukashenko at all. He's not the President of Georgia. I said former in the post, but yes being in jail would also make it difficult lol. That's why I asked. Thank you! In other news: speculative ID of the 7th general killed https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1507404485542518785?t=fL64JOmg7J2iIlLOLYkcRw&s=19 Edit: as penance I also offer this very funny video https://twitter.com/JuntaChronicles/status/1507051564548169730?t=1P-aF3j4VJYISJR3VXEqyQ&s=19 KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 18:20 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 18:18
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Hell yeah Russian soldiers are killing commanders. Imagine Battleship Potemkin, but, instead of maggots in their food, it's years-expired MREs. Not quite as dramatic. Haha, "I'm a top-level Russian military officer / I have 200,000 gently caress-ups under my command".
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Mar 25, 2022 18:19
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Yeah, that's how you can let the volunteers and regular people still carry vast majority of work, you muppet. At least they are slowly rolling out laws that allow Ukrainians to live normal lives here, including work, study, access to medical help etc. I hope they've already fixed their mess of a law that stated you get privilleges ONLY IF you cross PL-UA border. So Ukrainians GTFO through Slovakia ending up in Poland weren't included.. Not to mention Belarussians that ran away from Luka to Ukraine, and then had to run again..
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Mar 25, 2022 18:21
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"Everything outside of the Donbas was just a feint". Edit: I don't how announcing all this helps them at all. Things are clearly going very poorly for them. https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1507400322829930500?s=20&t=7h2IGKKTy1G2XY4ZP5WONQ
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Mar 25, 2022 18:21
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CommieGIR posted:You are making alot of assumptions that the Russian's are competent in the South versus the North. That hasn't held true, I'd argue the only reason there's more success in the South has been Ukrainian focus on Kyiv, not BTGs available. Its likely the same quality of troops and equipment, with maybe slightly better logistics availability due to port access. The southern force is better supplied.because they.can be supplied by sea. If anything they may be more incompetent, given the kherson airport, but they aren't running out of bullets and the Russians in the north are.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:22
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Speaking of cancel culture: https://twitter.com/IrisovaOlga/status/1507252961122078756 And of quality Russian scholarship: https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1507385903265767432
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Mar 25, 2022 18:24
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headspace posted:"Everything outside of the Donbas was just a feint". Edit: I don't how announcing all this helps them at all. Things are clearly going very poorly for them. From the thread: https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1507401226257940491 There are over 900 vehicles destroyed on https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
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Mar 25, 2022 18:25
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The southern force is better supplied.because they.can be supplied by sea. If anything they may be more incompetent, given the kherson airport, but they aren't running out of bullets and the Russians in the north are. Well, for now the Ukrainians are focusing on rolling up the guys in the north, once they get them to gently caress off we'll see how the war can be prosecuted in the south by them. And by then they should have lots of new toys to play with.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:25
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:It is absolutely going to be a long war. Neither side is likely to capitulate or gain enough of an advantage to overwhelm the other. The only way it won't be a long war is if it escalates into a wider conflict between Russia and NATO. I don't think we can say this with certainty. Nothing about this war is conventional except for it being a genuinely conventional modern war, and it's brought us to understanding that the geopolitical situation is very ... novel, as is our understanding of the russian military's condition. So much could happen that changes our analysis of the potential timeframe, as quickly as it changed from an assumption of a short war.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:25
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I feel like Southern and Eastern forces were actually prepared to go on a shooting war, like at least officers knew poo poo will go down. Even if not now then shortly. And Northern dudes just assumed it's just training exercise with some additional posturing.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:25
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Folks, can anybody back up the "20 Russian generals in Ukraine total" figure? I seem to vaguely recall there was some discussion that the "20 generals" figure was incorrect and was at best based on a misunderstanding where "major general" stands in the Russian hierarchy (lower than the US major general) and that the actual figure was more like 60 such major generals, but it's been a while and I don't have those links nor that information at my fingertips. Either way as near as I recall "20 generals total" is almost certainly incorrect.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:26
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ZombieLenin posted:Those are still subsonic and our ranged by both serious threats to the USN—the Chinese YJ-18 and the Russian SSC-5. The NSM is roughly the same range as the YJ-18 and SSC-5 and is stealthier than either. The AGM-158C has longer range and is fully stealth. Also there is a some differences in between how the USN operates in terms of fleet defense then Russia or China but that isn't really public knowledge for obvious reasons. But they are modernizing their ASM, mainly due to China's push to have a blue water Navy and the likely scenario in a Taiwanese conflict.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:28
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Tomn posted:Either way as near as I recall "20 generals total" is almost certainly incorrect. The claim I've seen is 7 generals and 20 total officers, so like generals + colonels + ??? Other levels of officer
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Mar 25, 2022 18:31
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Tomn posted:Folks, can anybody back up the "20 Russian generals in Ukraine total" figure? I seem to vaguely recall there was some discussion that the "20 generals" figure was incorrect and was at best based on a misunderstanding where "major general" stands in the Russian hierarchy (lower than the US major general) and that the actual figure was more like 60 such major generals, but it's been a while and I don't have those links nor that information at my fingertips. Either way as near as I recall "20 generals total" is almost certainly incorrect. russian general-mayor (lit. major general) is the equivalent of a brigadier general in the NATO classification. their general-leytenants (lieutenant-general) are the equivalents of major-generals. a general-polkovnik (colonel-general) is the equivalent of a lieutenant general. general-armii (army general) is a 4 star general.
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Mar 25, 2022 18:32
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plogo posted:From the thread: The vehicles have crews of 1.3 dudes obviously,
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Mar 25, 2022 18:35
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