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fuctifino posted:I clicked that link. This was the most recent post (google translated) Maybe Telegram just doesn't work right for me (or I don't know how the gently caress it works), as the first one I saw was (google translated) quote:Even before the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, our unit understood that a full-scale Russian invasion of the rest of Ukraine remained a matter of time, which was accelerated by Putin's unjustified ambition. and none on the first page are about it. Thanks! I mostly just wanted the source as I googled it and mostly just found basically the same line repeated from ummm extremely unreputable sites that did nothing but repost whatever random blogs put up.
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Mar 26, 2022 23:56
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Kchama posted:Maybe Telegram just doesn't work right for me (or I don't know how the gently caress it works), as the first one I saw was (google translated) and none on the first page are about it. Thanks! I totally get the 100% need for sources of info, and glad to help.
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Mar 27, 2022 00:05
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I feel awful for laughing at this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMEuJf4k8VU
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Mar 27, 2022 00:07
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It also looks like Ukraine made minor gains East and West of Kharvik today, in the 'Russians definitely not making a planned withdrawal' sense.
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Mar 27, 2022 00:07
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Kchama posted:Maybe I should have specified: Do you have a reliable source for the sentence you posted with zero source? Like, link the actual post or whatever instead of expecting me to sift through it all. Cuz I can't find a post about it. The last post in the linked channel says that, but I have no idea if it’s their official social media or no.
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Mar 27, 2022 00:12
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Cimber posted:I feel awful for laughing at this. Considering the... uh... ethics of international sports bodies, I would give them an 80% chance.
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Mar 27, 2022 00:15
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Vox Nihili posted:Giving up a potential negotiating chip and one of their only significant gains seems pretty crazy to me. It's much easier to defend territory than seize it. What is it you think is easier about trying to hold out in an urban environment where your defensive positions come pre-surrounded by angry locals cracking open their molotov stockpiles?
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Mar 27, 2022 00:15
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Mokotow posted:For one thing, it’d be a significant challenge to shift units from Belarus and northern Ukraine back east. You got a link about that?
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Mar 27, 2022 00:17
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Cimber posted:I feel awful for laughing at this. I don’t think you can be blamed for laughing at something that funny. Then again I’m a lawyer so I have a strong adherence to gallows humor.
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Mar 27, 2022 00:17
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kemikalkadet posted:Pretty sure America isn't at war with Russia right now. Sure, sure, and neither is Russia at war with Ukraine. If you prefer, America and the West are in a state of Special Military Operation with Russia. The word you use doesn't change the basic truths guiding both sides' strategy one whit. Limited war would be another word for it. Both sides have their red lines and are doing everything they can on that side of the line to crush the other. It's maybe the closest thing to total war that can occur in our post-nuclear world without triggering MAD. There doesn't need to be a congressional proclamation of war for a state of war to exist.
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Mar 27, 2022 00:20
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Vox Nihili posted:Giving up a potential negotiating chip and one of their only significant gains seems pretty crazy to me. It's much easier to defend territory than seize it. It's not easy to defend when the attacker has civilians texting them your unit positions in real time.
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Mar 27, 2022 00:21
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Vox Nihili posted:Giving up a potential negotiating chip and one of their only significant gains seems pretty crazy to me. It's much easier to defend territory than seize it. I don't want to fan the flames of hyper optimism, but it is possible that the russians will be increasingly nervous about a period of ukrainian counter attacks. There's only three crossings on the lower Dnieper, and bridges are fragile things. They might be nervous about the crossings being destroyed, and all the russian troops on the west bank being pocketed between the river and ukrainian forces. I admit this is completely speculative, and it requires the russian forces to be much weaker than osint suggests, or at least to feel exposed enough that it would make sense for them to abandon those gains. But it doesn't seem very likely now that they have the ability to push on to further goals like Mykolaiv and Odesa, or Kryvyi Rih/Nikopol, and without those, there is not too much advantage to hold the terrain. You are right that it would be a huge setback to lose Kherson, and holding the river crossings is of huge significance.
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Mar 27, 2022 00:24
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Magic Underwear posted:Sure, sure, and neither is Russia at war with Ukraine. If the US had troops or "special advisors" in Ukraine right now a la Vietnam then you could say the US is at war with Russia but since that isn't true you can't. What the US/NATO did was give a whole lot of material support and training to Ukraine following 2014. The Ukrainians have been making good use of both in their fight against the Russians.
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Mar 27, 2022 00:30
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Apologies for trying to expand the conflict, but I was wondering, at what point does the world or even just popular opinion say, gently caress Putin, gently caress his nukes, it’s the worth risk to stop him (either in Ukraine or third country)? I guess at what point do nukes stop being able to deter a military attack?
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Mar 27, 2022 00:33
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Vox Nihili posted:Giving up a potential negotiating chip and one of their only significant gains seems pretty crazy to me. It's much easier to defend territory than seize it. I give it some possibility based off that they have always left "oh they're crazy" on the table as a discovery
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Mar 27, 2022 00:34
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Fray posted:You got a link about that? @sumydefense on instagram, reposted by DvisH english on Telegram, so nothing journalistic. Very 
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Mar 27, 2022 00:34
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Nukes are a great deterrent. Nukes with ICBM's make them a even better deterrent. No one is invading Russia unless they use nukes first. And then invasion is a moot point anyways.
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Mar 27, 2022 00:36
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Apologies for trying to expand the conflict, but I was wondering, at what point does the world or even just popular opinion say, gently caress Putin, gently caress his nukes, it’s the worth risk to stop him (either in Ukraine or third country)? Do you know what the D in MAD stands for?
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Mar 27, 2022 00:41
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Apologies for trying to expand the conflict, but I was wondering, at what point does the world or even just popular opinion say, gently caress Putin, gently caress his nukes, it’s the worth risk to stop him (either in Ukraine or third country)? Sorry, but there’s a separate thread for this kind of question. Consult OP.
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Mar 27, 2022 00:52
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Apologies for trying to expand the conflict, but I was wondering, at what point does the world or even just popular opinion say, gently caress Putin, gently caress his nukes, it’s the worth risk to stop him (either in Ukraine or third country)? The point at which the world decides everybody dying is worth stopping thousands from dying.
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Mar 27, 2022 01:08
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sebmojo posted:Do you know what the D in MAD stands for? Also I only realized how hilarious that reads after typing it.
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Mar 27, 2022 01:09
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sebmojo posted:Do you know what the D in MAD stands for? Sure, but what do you think the M stands for. It’s never been put to the test really with foreign armies on the soil of a nuclear power, but putting that M together with that D makes it really hard to ever justify first use of strategic nuclear weapons.
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Mar 27, 2022 01:12
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civilian bodies, fighting, explosions, aftermath Some seriously dark stuff in these https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOao41OlzaU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3o_1mVl7G4 These are from inside Irpin which is apparently coming under heavy attack, civilians are fleeing and UA forces are fortifying inside for an expected Russian push? At least that's what it seems from the videos, maybe that has changed since then. Play fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Mar 27, 2022 |
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Mar 27, 2022 01:13
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Right, that’s why I’m interested if there is a part where risking the D is worth it. The thing is that the A is supposed to mean what it means, so the word "risk" is not entirely appropriate.
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Mar 27, 2022 01:30
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Sorry I’m always many pages behind but this particular report of a dead Russian general prompted me to consider the deaths of generals as a barometer for overall casualties. Anyone who thinks that - Russia doesn’t have lots of dead and wounded AND - numerous Russian upper ranks have died AND - Ukraine is under heavy pressure with limited freedom of action has as some serious inconsistencies to explain away.
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Mar 27, 2022 01:38
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Morrow posted:Biden said nothing wrong. This conflict continues, ceasefire or not, until Putin is out of power. Yes. He's a war criminal and has been branded as such. Biden didn't say we would oust him. But somebody (a lynch mob or another oligarch who wants his yacht back) certainly should.
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Mar 27, 2022 01:42
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The Artificial Kid posted:Sorry I’m always many pages behind but this particular report of a dead Russian general prompted me to consider the deaths of generals as a barometer for overall casualties. Anyone who thinks that The fact that so many of them are being murked is not necessarily relational to the (very high) number of Russian soldiers being killed. Ukraine is putting serious effort into tracking down and killing Russian commanders. Another factor is that Russia is apparently sending generals and other very senior officers to the front lines more than you would typically see because of the poor morale and faltering offensive efforts.
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Mar 27, 2022 01:59
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The Artificial Kid posted:Sorry I’m always many pages behind but this particular report of a dead Russian general prompted me to consider the deaths of generals as a barometer for overall casualties. Anyone who thinks that I don't see how the ability to hit a command post with precision artillery precludes significant operational limitations on Ukrainian forces. Their column attempting to relieve Hostomel in the early days was destroyed from the air and while I've seen tweets about them going on the offensive it's less clear if these gains have actually been consolidated, and regardless, moving massed armor puts that group at a significant risk which I'm sure is not lost on UA decision makers. This is even more of an issue east of the Dniper - even if they completely destroy the Russians on the northern axis they still have a lot of ground to move men across. But yes this has been incredibly deadly for Russian soldiers and brass, turns out the smart move was to surrender to a farmer on day 1
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Mar 27, 2022 02:00
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Cimber posted:I feel awful for laughing at this. I lost it at “Nazi-Bosnia and Nazi-Herzgovina”
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Mar 27, 2022 02:33
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Groke posted:The thing is that the A is supposed to mean what it means, so the word "risk" is not entirely appropriate. I should have also stated I was thinking solely of conventional attack and with that clearly stated.m to the Russians. I can see how wacky it comes off as if you think I mean use nukes.
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Mar 27, 2022 02:36
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The Artificial Kid posted:Sorry I’m always many pages behind but this particular report of a dead Russian general prompted me to consider the deaths of generals as a barometer for overall casualties. Anyone who thinks that People have been in denial of the Russian military struggling in this conflict from the beginning, despite all of the evidence pointing towards Russia taking major loses and having severe logistical and strategic problems. "There's just no way Russia won't win" was a fairly popular talking point but it seems to have finally died down. I never for one moment thought it was going to be easy for Russia, I was pretty confident it would be a costly and difficult war regardless of who would win. Historically military conflicts frequently do not go the way you would expect on paper. Swings of morale, one or two environmental factors, or one or two boneheaded decisions are all that's needed to swing a certain victory to a devastating rout. I don't get why so many were confident in there being only one likely outcome in Russia's favour.
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Mar 27, 2022 02:37
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jmnmu posted:People have been in denial of the Russian military struggling in this conflict from the beginning, despite all of the evidence pointing towards Russia taking major loses and having severe logistical and strategic problems. "There's just no way Russia won't win" was a fairly popular talking point but it seems to have finally died down. I never for one moment thought it was going to be easy for Russia, I was pretty confident it would be a costly and difficult war regardless of who would win. Historically military conflicts frequently do not go the way you would expect on paper. Swings of morale, one or two environmental factors, or one or two boneheaded decisions are all that's needed to swing a certain victory to a devastating rout. I don't get why so many were confident in there being only one likely outcome in Russia's favour. I think the people who thought from the outset that Russia would have problems were the hardcore military nerds for whom trucks and forklifts are more exciting then tanks and self propelled artillery. It's easy for the layperson to look at a chart showing 3000 tanks vs 250 tanks and think the obvious conclusion is that the side with 3000 tanks will win a crushing victory, but it's become apparent to all that there's more that goes into a successful campaign than pure firepower.
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Mar 27, 2022 03:22
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1507902750520233986 Small successes on a day without much news. These villages are NW of Mariupol, and east of Hulyaipole if you want to look them up. 
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Mar 27, 2022 03:24
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However you calculate Russia's next move, I believe their human losses should not affect those calculations about intent and operations. From the Russian perspective, those losses are sustainable. From their experience, how many you lose really doesn't matter - it's how they fight war. Their war planners do not consider it relevant. Now, how they replace the fallen, and the quality of those replacements, that definitely has a place in the equation. But the sheer total of their losses doesn't. Secondly, we don't know how much they have in their warehouses. It's a real unknown.
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Mar 27, 2022 03:32
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the popes toes posted:However you calculate Russia's next move, I believe their human losses should not affect those calculations about intent and operations. From the Russian perspective, those losses are sustainable. From their experience, how many you lose really doesn't matter - it's how they fight war. Their war planners do not consider it relevant. As to what they have in their warehouses, https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1507657467718684675
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Mar 27, 2022 03:34
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There’s still news outlets like the Washington Post and WSJ that are insisting that Russia could still win this war. So I’m waiting for what the upset is going to be. Maybe at some point UA troops get lured to the borders believing the Russians are retreating and hit a prepared position that annihilates a division.
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Mar 27, 2022 03:35
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Deteriorata posted:As to what they have in their warehouses, a commander committing suicide over the tanks seems to be a little over the top propaganda even by ukrainian standards
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Mar 27, 2022 03:37
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Kraftwerk posted:There’s still news outlets like the Washington Post and WSJ that are insisting that Russia could still win this war. So I’m waiting for what the upset is going to be. Maybe at some point UA troops get lured to the borders believing the Russians are retreating and hit a prepared position that annihilates a division. "Win" in the sense of end with more square feet of land territory than they started with, maybe
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Mar 27, 2022 03:39
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Concerned Citizen posted:a commander committing suicide over the tanks seems to be a little over the top propaganda even by ukrainian standards Better to go out your own way instead of being made an example of.
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Mar 27, 2022 03:42
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Kraftwerk posted:There’s still news outlets like the Washington Post and WSJ that are insisting that Russia could still win this war. So I’m waiting for what the upset is going to be. Maybe at some point UA troops get lured to the borders believing the Russians are retreating and hit a prepared position that annihilates a division. Win could mean a lot of things. What exactly do they suggest? Concerned Citizen posted:a commander committing suicide over the tanks seems to be a little over the top propaganda even by ukrainian standards The suggestion obviously is fear of repercussions for being caught red-handed with grift in this of all times.
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Mar 27, 2022 03:44
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