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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i don't see how this could be correct, it seems decently behind previous russian lines with no build up at all with no lead up at all? Apparently there's another Malynivka in the same oblast just a few kilometers south of Poltavka, so probably not the gains everyone was hoping for. https://www.google.com/maps/place/M...39!4d36.4741659 I'm guessing Malynivka is like "Springfield" in Ukrainian.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:13
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I think I speak for us all when I say I want to know how much delivery by submarine costs and if it's cheaper or more expensive than air.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:15
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KillHour posted:I think I speak for us all when I say I want to know how much delivery by submarine costs and if it's cheaper or more expensive than air. I don’t have the messages anymore so I can’t give exact numbers. This was 20 years ago or so. The submarine was more expensive than air delivery. I assume that is because it would be actual smuggling instead of just landing a plane and offloading some cargo. I have no idea though, I didn’t follow up for obvious reasons.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:18
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Young Freud posted:Apparently there's another Malynivka in the same oblast just a few kilometers south of Poltavka, so probably not the gains everyone was hoping for. Google maps finds at least 4 others, and I am limited by the suggestions UI showing 5 things at a time. (And also a Malinovka in Russia which is likely a cognate). I am guessing it's named after Malyna --- Raspberry --- but as a guess it has a very high chance of being wrong.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:26
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cr0y posted:Was I dreaming or did someone post something in this thread before The invasion even occurred that basically laid out how Russia was going to have major logistics problems that would likely lead to the collapse that we are seeing now? Units have a fixed input and output range where the input is usually gas and the output is usually miles/time, I would think that it's not that difficult to model how this was all going to go down. Maybe I am just naive because I claim residence to a military that has a small country attached to it (usa) https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine These were both quite prescient
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Mar 27, 2022 06:32
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Delthalaz posted:Right but wouldn’t Russian military leaders, who presumably grew up in a country that included Ukraine, be pretty familiar with it? In fairness, how many New Yorkers know much about a Louisiana summer? Or how many folks from Las Vegas are prepared to handle crossing the Mississippi without a bridge? Or how many Arizonans are prepared for a North Dakota winter? Knowledge of regional weather/terrain patterns and how to deal with them can be pretty localized, especially in a big country (and especially if a lot of your VIPs spend a lot of time in big urban centers and less time in unpleasant wilds). Though that being said one would think that if you were a military officer in charge of planning an invasion at SOME point you would have at least asked someone what the weather was going to be like and how it might affect the terrain but apparently not.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:37
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Delthalaz posted:Right but wouldn’t Russian military leaders, who presumably grew up in a country that included Ukraine, be pretty familiar with it? So? Its either you drive on roads and get stuck in a traffic jam or try to force the mud and get stuck in it. Being familiar with mud dorsnt change those two outcomes
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Mar 27, 2022 06:38
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Tomn posted:In fairness, how many New Yorkers know much about a Louisiana summer? Or how many folks from Las Vegas are prepared to handle crossing the Mississippi without a bridge? Or how many Arizonans are prepared for a North Dakota winter? Knowledge of regional weather/terrain patterns and how to deal with them can be pretty localized, especially in a big country (and especially if a lot of your VIPs spend a lot of time in big urban centers and less time in unpleasant wilds). like 100% of new yorkers can tell you what a louisiana summer is like. hell probably 100% of american who know that louisiana is a state can.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:38
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Herstory Begins Now posted:like 100% of new yorkers can tell you what a louisiana summer is like. hell probably 100% of american who know that louisiana is a state can. But can they tell you where to get a good etouffee? Trick question - every etouffee in Louisiana is good. Even the free buffet one at my hotel was good.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:43
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Herstory Begins Now posted:like 100% of new yorkers can tell you what a louisiana summer is like. hell probably 100% of american who know that louisiana is a state can. Phrased it badly, but knowing about it and being prepared to deal with it are two different things. Or to put it another way, how many visiting New Yorkers get heatstroke or dehydration while they're down there for the first time because they hadn't prepared properly or drank enough water? "OK, it's pretty hot, so I'll just wear a t-shirt, problem solved, right?"
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Mar 27, 2022 06:44
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Tomn posted:Phrased it badly, but knowing about it and being prepared to deal with it are two different things. Or to put it another way, how many visiting New Yorkers get heatstroke or dehydration while they're down there for the first time because they hadn't prepared properly or drank enough water? probably not many? it's only like 6 degrees F hotter on average in the summer in NO than NYC and NYC is a loving hot humid swamp in the summer
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Mar 27, 2022 06:48
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Tomn posted:In fairness, how many New Yorkers know much about a Louisiana summer? Or how many folks from Las Vegas are prepared to handle crossing the Mississippi without a bridge? Or how many Arizonans are prepared for a North Dakota winter? Knowledge of regional weather/terrain patterns and how to deal with them can be pretty localized, especially in a big country (and especially if a lot of your VIPs spend a lot of time in big urban centers and less time in unpleasant wilds). It's not like they wouldn't have had plenty of people who would have been willing to give them reports on the conditions too - as much as the events of 2014 hardened views against Russia there would have been enough sympathisers/collaborationists in the country to give the planners very accurate intelligence if they wanted it. It think it's simply a case that they did not expect to need to do much offroad driving.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:48
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Tomn posted:In fairness, how many New Yorkers know much about a Louisiana summer? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYZzxZh4E8g&t=51s
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Mar 27, 2022 06:51
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Herstory Begins Now posted:probably not many? it's only like 6 degrees F hotter on average in the summer in NO than NYC and NYC is a loving hot humid swamp in the summer I take issue with your label of "New Yorker" meaning "Someone from NYC" and not "Someone from NYS." Not all of NY is a miserable swamp in the summer 
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Mar 27, 2022 06:53
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Tomn posted:Phrased it badly, but knowing about it and being prepared to deal with it are two different things. Or to put it another way, how many visiting New Yorkers get heatstroke or dehydration while they're down there for the first time because they hadn't prepared properly or drank enough water? Clueless tourists being clueless is unsurprising. If you are in charge of a military and planning an invasion one key aspect is taking into account climate and terrain. Failing to do so means you very bad at your job.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:54
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KillHour posted:I take issue with your label of "New Yorker" meaning "Someone from NYC" and not "Someone from NYS." haha I knew someone was going to mention that, but shh it makes a better point that way. I used to live in one of the areas that NYC people all flocked to to get away from the summers so I can't even claim ignorance about conflating ny with nyc
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Mar 27, 2022 06:55
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Tomn posted:Phrased it badly, but knowing about it and being prepared to deal with it are two different things. Or to put it another way, how many visiting New Yorkers get heatstroke or dehydration while they're down there for the first time because they hadn't prepared properly or drank enough water? You're really underestimating East Coast summers.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:56
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Tomn posted:Or how many Arizonans are prepared for a North Dakota winter? But I agree with your overall post.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:56
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:You're really underestimating East Coast summers. I think this may have accidentally proved the point. See also: me finding out that Oregon does, in fact, get real snow. Boy did that suck.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:57
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Yeah to be clear the point isn't bad and imo the mississippi river is the better comparison where it is just a force of nature that either your plans take into account... or they don't. The real mystery of it is that hundreds of thousands of lives and billions of dollars of equipment were put on the line without having at all meaningfully accounted for the effect mud would have. Otherwise I'm just enjoying calling nyc a humid swamp
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Mar 27, 2022 06:59
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I'm in a weird position where the more my ignorance is shown up the more my point is proven and I don't know how I feel about it. At least I can rely on the Mississippi. (The...the Mississippi IS actually famously unreliable, right? Right...?) Owling Howl posted:Clueless tourists being clueless is unsurprising. If you are in charge of a military and planning an invasion one key aspect is taking into account climate and terrain. Failing to do so means you very bad at your job. Yeah, that's the second half of my original OP. You'd really think someone would have checked or factored that into calculations somehow. Comedy answer: Given how many Russians weren't even aware they were invading or in Ukraine "clueless (albeit extremely aggressive) tourists" is not necessarily the worst description of the Russian Army in the first few days. 
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Mar 27, 2022 07:10
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KillHour posted:But can they tell you where to get a good etouffee? Sure they can. Brooklyn, of course.
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Mar 27, 2022 07:13
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Like yeah random guys probably wouldn’t know about mud season, but if you have 8 years to prepare and study the geography and weather patterns and stuff related to war in ukraine, you’d think you’d learn about something important enough for war in the area that it was modeled n HOI 2. The last time there was war in Ukraine. Re: the argument that they’d be hosed no matter what for invading in mud season, maybe! But they chose this. Why not start your 2 month invasion buildup in April then?
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Mar 27, 2022 07:25
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i'll cop to thinking that this was pretty much guaranteed to be a russian victory on the field (and then an unwinnable insurgency), but mostly because i was deeply cynical about europe and the us actually managing to care about ukraine. russia has had serious readiness and maintenance issues in their much lower-intensity deployments to syria.
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Mar 27, 2022 07:33
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Delthalaz posted:Like yeah random guys probably wouldn’t know about mud season, but if you have 8 years to prepare and study the geography and weather patterns and stuff related to war in ukraine, you’d think you’d learn about something important enough for war in the area that it was modeled n HOI 2. The last time there was war in Ukraine. I haven't seen a recent pro summary of this yet, but Putin seemed to have a strategy with gas prices going a while back. quote:Russia is pumping a lot less natural gas to Europe all of a sudden — and it is not clear why https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/russia-is-pumping-less-natural-gas-to-europe-as-nord-stream-2-nears-completion.html It speculates that it will give them leverage to get Nord Stream 2 streamlined, but in hindsight it might have been preparations for war. Jack up gas prices, wait for winter when gas consumption is highest, start war, gas prices shoot into the stratosphere and Europe will begrudgingly accept the fait accompli with promises that plenty of gas will soon be flowing.
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Mar 27, 2022 07:37
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Delthalaz posted:Like yeah random guys probably wouldn’t know about mud season, but if you have 8 years to prepare and study the geography and weather patterns and stuff related to war in ukraine, you’d think you’d learn about something important enough for war in the area that it was modeled n HOI 2. The last time there was war in Ukraine. I'm fairly sure they were under heavy pressure from above to start as soon as possible. And it took some convincing by China that they waited oht the olympics. So you could call it impatience. But there's also the economic factor. Now that it's spring, the EU nations are much less reliant on the Russian gas, so they could have strangled Russia much more severely from the start.
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Mar 27, 2022 07:39
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Delthalaz posted:Re: the argument that they’d be hosed no matter what for invading in mud season, maybe! But they chose this. Why not start your 2 month invasion buildup in April then? They started moving stuff into place in April of 2021. There were stops and starts along the way and I'm sure most didn't know exactly what it was all for but Russia had been gearing up to it for a while.
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Mar 27, 2022 07:46
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/asamiterajima/status/1507865622746701836 I'm assuming Ukraine doesn't have ground crews and pilots for MiG-29s, right? So it might be May before they're in the air. And I don't know much about planes but I understand the MiG-29 is a fighter that started production in 1982. Would this actually make a meaningful impact, or is it more symbolic?
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Mar 27, 2022 07:51
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Delthalaz posted:Re: the argument that they’d be hosed no matter what for invading in mud season, maybe! But they chose this. Why not start your 2 month invasion buildup in April then? Then they couldn't do their stupid WW2 larp victory parade on May 9th.
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Mar 27, 2022 07:51
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Vivian Darkbloom posted:I'm assuming Ukraine doesn't have ground crews and pilots for MiG-29s, right? So it might be May before they're in the air. And I don't know much about planes but I understand the MiG-29 is a fighter that started production in 1982. Would this actually make a meaningful impact, or is it more symbolic? They have more than enough for extra planes. As for the MiG-29, it's what the Ukrainian Air Force would have most familiarity with. Giving them F16s or something would take months to get them retrained, when they can hop into a MiG-29 and fly it out of Poland.
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Mar 27, 2022 08:00
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Vivian Darkbloom posted:I'm assuming Ukraine doesn't have ground crews and pilots for MiG-29s, right? So it might be May before they're in the air. And I don't know much about planes but I understand the MiG-29 is a fighter that started production in 1982. Would this actually make a meaningful impact, or is it more symbolic? the Zaporizhzhia arny commander mentioned they could really use more fighter jets to defend against attack helicopters
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Mar 27, 2022 08:08
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uncleTomOfFinland posted:Then they couldn't do their stupid WW2 larp victory parade on May 9th. ...so they decided to launch a major invasion in the window between the winter olympics and victory day? Rather than factoring in boring things like, e.g., Mud Season.
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Mar 27, 2022 08:09
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Tree Bucket posted:...so they decided to launch a major invasion in the window between the winter olympics and victory day? Rather than factoring in boring things like, e.g., Mud Season. Their believe was that the actual invasion would be over in 2-4 days, which is why the launched it around "peak freeze" (at least that's how it was described at the time) in mid February. That's the assumption that was terribly wrong.
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Mar 27, 2022 08:20
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Djarum posted:Years ago I was looking for parts for a certain rare firearm. A guy contacted me that was a big arms dealer. I think he thought I was a mercenary or something based on what I was looking for. I basically got quotes for more than I was asking for with the cost of delivery via submarine or air depending on where I was located. Pretty wild stuff. I feel like this is the plot to the movie Lord of War.
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Mar 27, 2022 08:22
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Mud season doesn't matter if you can fly your special forces into important locations and have your general army roll down highways while being greeted as liberators. Most Russian (and some NATO) planners expected Ukraine to fold pretty fast and the people in charge didn't want to upset Putin by presenting a pessimistic view, or Putin himself decided to follow the optimistic plan. Hell they may have even expected the mud season to play a role in their favour because there'd be no heavy armour striking their supply lines through the countryside.
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Mar 27, 2022 08:22
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Tree Bucket posted:...so they decided to launch a major invasion in the window between the winter olympics and victory day? Rather than factoring in boring things like, e.g., Mud Season. My guess they weren't expecting such a quick thaw in late February. GaussianCopula posted:Their believe was that the actual invasion would be over in 2-4 days, which is why the launched it around "peak freeze" (at least that's how it was described at the time) in mid February. Someone didn't factor in climate change bringing the mud season early. And then that freak cold snap after they've got tanks bogged down in now-frozen mud and soldiers who lost or abandoned their cold weather gear after their transports got hit getting frostbite.
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Mar 27, 2022 08:24
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Tree Bucket posted:...so they decided to launch a major invasion in the window between the winter olympics and victory day? Rather than factoring in boring things like, e.g., Mud Season. I mean, the plan seemed to be, land in Kiev, install a new government, maybe shoot some stuff at the border in the meantime, demoralized Ukrainian army units defect and drive showing how great you are. You don't need crisp weather for that, especially since you're going to be driving on highways. Beaten like the VDV landings in Hostomel. mmkay fucked around with this message at 08:29 on Mar 27, 2022 |
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Mar 27, 2022 08:27
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Vivian Darkbloom posted:I'm assuming Ukraine doesn't have ground crews and pilots for MiG-29s, right? So it might be May before they're in the air. And I don't know much about planes but I understand the MiG-29 is a fighter that started production in 1982. Would this actually make a meaningful impact, or is it more symbolic? The F-16 started production in 1978. And the Ukrainian Air Force already flies a number of Mig-29s - it’s like half their existing stock of planes. They shouldn’t have problems operating them if they get them.
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Mar 27, 2022 08:41
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Delthalaz posted:Re: the argument that they’d be hosed no matter what for invading in mud season, maybe! But they chose this. Why not start your 2 month invasion buildup in April then? I'd guess the dates of the invasion were forced politically with most of the analysis from the military intelligence side ignored. I bet that starting the war the next day after national holiday of February 23 (the day of armed forces or rather the designated Man Day) and ending it prior to the anniversary of Crinea annexation looked really good to Russian leadership.
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Mar 27, 2022 08:42
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Another aspect of underestimating mud season is that this was not at all going to be tank maneuver warfare, it was going to be a highway rush to the big cities, seize power, deploy police (who got hosed up) to calm unrest, fait accompli accomplished.
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Mar 27, 2022 08:50
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