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Ola
Jul 19, 2004

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1508104538862993408

The bit about the Russian AWACS made me wonder how fast it would be possible to cobble together a truck launched AIM-54 with radar-homing guidance.

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Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Gemany apparently simultaneously on the eve of invasion thinking it wouldn't happen but also would be over in 24 hours.

https://twitter.com/tomescritt/status/1508128323557367814

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

The Monarch posted:

Yea no countries hemming and hawing to infinity about welcoming middle eastern refugees, while welcoming Ukrainian ones with open arms, should be called out. We're talking about the refugee policies of major nations, not local charity groups. I want Syrian, Palestinian, Lybian etc refugees treated with that same level of respect and care that the Ukranian ones are, and the only reason they're not is because of naked, systemic racism.

"They're not refugees, they're white!" is a really, really gross sentiment.

As far as I've understood it, it is actually Ukraine that is bitching about how its citizens are called refugees and treated just like any other refugee when they go to e.g. Denmark, where they're "forced" to learn Danish, attend Danish cultural classes, etc.

So ... basically it is exactly the opposite of the point you are trying to make? I mean maybe some countries treat Ukrainians differently/better than Syrians, but for the most part Western Europe at least treats Syrians identically to Ukrainians.

Economic migrant-style semi-refugees are treated like poo poo in Western Europe, but that's an entire other issue imho. Syrians got pretty adequate treatment from the governments of Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, etc., at least once they got out of Greece, which of course was catastrophically bad.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Kurzon posted:

I've looked into Aleksandr Dugin and his pathological hatred of liberalism baffles me. He thinks it is decadent even though the liberal democracies of the world are stronger militarily and economically than the autocracies. Russia today is a mess. It's people are ravaged by alcoholism and drug addiction. The only reason anyone respects Russia is that it has too many nukes and oil fields. The only explanation I can think of is that his brain is naturally wired such that the values of liberalism disgust him intensely on an instinctive level, to the point that he will seize upon the craziest logic pretzels to validate his fascist ideology.

For Dugin himself, he's a full-on fascist; there's not much more to it than that. The more important question, IMO, is "why does Dugin have any purchase in the Russian political landscape?" And that's because Russia tried liberalism in the 90s and it went extremely badly for them. You may argue that it was just economic liberalism that went badly for them and not social liberalism, but unfortunately they were both kind of sold as a package deal to them. And the fact that Russia has nukes and oil fields is a pretty good reason to at least treat them as an important player on the international stage.

edited for clarity

Majorian fucked around with this message at 18:28 on Mar 27, 2022

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Alchenar posted:

Gemany apparently simultaneously on the eve of invasion thinking it wouldn't happen but also would be over in 24 hours.

https://twitter.com/tomescritt/status/1508128323557367814

The ministry of finance does not represent Germany, thankfully.

It's a good article, I recommend reading it, instead of doing a Twitter.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

timma85 posted:

This is hasn’t been true for most military beaches in the US for the last 10-15 years. The majority of branches have regulations specifically forbidding people from those sorts of enlistments.

Source: https://www.thebalancecareers.com/join-the-military-or-go-to-jail-3354033

Plus the military likes avoiding people who have done crime, barring some surge waivers, and also is looking for people to sign up for long term recruitment vs a short term to get out of jail.

with a rebel yell she QQd
Jan 18, 2007

Villain


Ola posted:

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1508104538862993408

The bit about the Russian AWACS made me wonder how fast it would be possible to cobble together a truck launched AIM-54 with radar-homing guidance.

The Juice of Kyiv

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1508092951997595650

We've heard variations on this theme a while now, most of Putin's confidence for the operation being based on corruption or downright scams. In all the tragedy, it would be great zeitgeisty comedy if all of this was due to an old man getting scammed online.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



OddObserver posted:

Seems like evidence of forced deportations is mounting:
https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1507947330992963586

I doubt it's tens of thousands, but the fact that it's happening at all is really hosed up.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Phlegmish posted:

I doubt it's tens of thousands, but the fact that it's happening at all is really hosed up.

Just wait until the country falls it'll be uighur style re education and gulags with fascist gangs setting up fiefdoms under the guise of occupation administration . Mass executions of teachers and intellectuals aswell as political and military classes. Part of the reason that they're setting these camps up is to turn ukrainians into collaborators by means of force and threat. In doing so they're going to create a class of people that's loyal to Russia solely due to fear which is a pretty big motivator especially when you're giving up your own people. Fingering their neighbor as a pro-ukrainian. The same problem as any other occupation therapy you have to trust the local population to actually be loyal to you, which isn't true at all and instead as anyone else is they are loyal to their own self interests. So by having these collaborators running around doing their business it's going to create the conditions for an even bigger insurgency as we saw in Iraq.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

PederP
Nov 20, 2009

Alchenar posted:

Gemany apparently simultaneously on the eve of invasion thinking it wouldn't happen but also would be over in 24 hours.

https://twitter.com/tomescritt/status/1508128323557367814

But hey, no harm done, because now that Ukraine repulsed the Russian invasion and has proved itself to not be a lost cause, the German government is making every effort to help the Ukrainian people, government and military. Right?

Seriously, though - the German response to this has been one of the most disappointing things for me. One things is the whole dragging their feet on sanctions and sending weapons, but the way German politicians refuse to accept responsibility for enabling Putin is worse. Economic integration as a way to prevent conflict and improve relations isn't bad in itself. But Germany (and some other countries in Europe) haven't just made deals with Putin - they've made themselves dependent on his regime. That was a horrible mistake and it should have resulted in a much more public mea culpa. If turning the gas off had been an option, it would've vastly increased the power of sanctions. Which might have prevented the invasion or been able to end/shorten the war.

Likewise, many European nations, my own included, and also Germany, have neglected their military capabilities to a degree where our options in regards to deterrence, intervention and aid have been significantly reduced. Intelligence agencies have been warning about this for more than a decade. Very few listened.

There is a sad tendency, which also presented itself during Covid, for European nations to be completely unwilling to accept any responsibility and admit mistakes. (Regarding Covid, there are strong phylogenetic indications that European failure to enact basic and standard responses to an epidemic during the early weeks, contributed greatly to the speed and severe of global spread - something Europe never acknowledged, instead pointing fingers at the US, UK and China).

I really hope in the aftermath of this that European governments do not relapse into irresponsibility and start blaming everyone else for their role in facilitating and allowing the invasion to happen. Yes, Russia is of course the responsible party, and I'm certainly not looking to excuse or contextualize this - but I'm worried that Europe will not in any way admit to making mistakes before and during the war. Because many European nations did play a huge role in enabling Putin's regime and emboldening him. The fault was not one of antagonizing Russia through expansion of membership eastwards - on the contrary, the mistakes were in being too friendly towards the regime.

Nail Rat
Dec 29, 2000

You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!!

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Just wait until the country falls it'll be uighur style re education and gulags with fascist gangs setting up fiefdoms under the guise of occupation administration . Mass executions of teachers and intellectuals aswell as political and military classes. Part of the reason that they're setting these camps up is to turn ukrainians into collaborators by means of force and threat. In doing so they're going to create a class of people that's loyal to Russia solely due to fear which is a pretty big motivator especially when you're giving up your own people. Fingering their neighbor as a pro-ukrainian. The same problem as any other occupation therapy you have to trust the local population to actually be loyal to you, which isn't true at all and instead as anyone else is they are loyal to their own self interests. So by having these collaborators running around doing their business it's going to create the conditions for an even bigger insurgency as we saw in Iraq.

Hopefully we'll be waiting a long time for Ukraine to fall.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Kurzon posted:

I've looked into Aleksandr Dugin and his pathological hatred of liberalism baffles me. He thinks it is decadent even though the liberal democracies of the world are stronger militarily and economically than the autocracies. Russia today is a mess. It's people are ravaged by alcoholism and drug addiction. The only reason anyone respects Russia is that it has too many nukes and oil fields. The only explanation I can think of is that his brain is naturally wired such that the values of liberalism disgust him intensely on an instinctive level, to the point that he will seize upon the craziest logic pretzels to validate his fascist ideology.
The shocking gently caress-ups of the 90s are likely a factor, but I think in a lot of these cases it has more to do with aesthetics and how they wish things to be, with the emotional realities of the various setups and aspects of fascism. That is what they reach first, and then they work back from there. At least this explains to me why it seems to just be Mussolini-tier fascism instead of at least like, trying to come up with something novel or developing out of a different traditional base.

e: While I expect you do not, under any circumstances, have to "hand it" to Alexander Dugin, it may also be that Dugin had a more advanced or complex theory which Putin just looked at, nodded, and said 'good idea, but what if I just use it to justify the usual poo poo?'

Nessus fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Mar 27, 2022

Nice piece of fish
Jan 29, 2008

Ultra Carp

Mokotow posted:

Regarding the International Red Cross, the more I read about these guys, the shittier they come off. Apparently they are involved with these reception centers in Russia for people hijacked from Ukraine, and the head of the Russian Red Cross is photographed being super chummy with Russian politicians.

During the Belarus border crisis in Poland, the Polish branch if RC refused to deploy any help to the border, describing it as a political issue, this out of the IRCs purview. They have a swanky office in downtown Warsaw, they’re ran by some ancient dude and they’re doing gently caress all.

This is just the dumbest take.

The Red Cross practises absolute neutrality, and will never take sides in a conflict. The organization is simply not geared to favour the russian side in any way, or refuse aid to refugee, kidnap victim, russian or ukranian soldier alike. It's like saying you think that cat is barking.

With the amount of lies and propaganda being thrown around in this conflict I would be super sceptical of believing much of anything from any source, but I for sure will never believe the IRC would take sides with Russia or aid in any kind of abduction (besides caring for the victims which obviously isn't the same). Just fundamentally a horseshit assumption that needs extraordinary evidence backing it up.

Disclaimer: I am a volunteer rescue worker with the Red Cross and am currently engaged in my local efforts in receiving refugees from all over, now also Ukraine, and working with local government to house, care for and aid them. We've been able to raise hundreds of millions for the victims in Ukraine just from my country already and a huge effort is underway there. We are doing the best we can with all of our effort.

Sit the gently caress down.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Nail Rat posted:

Hopefully we'll be waiting a long time for Ukraine to fall.

I should have probably revised this into hypothetically if the country falls as I don't believe the country will fall

Gejnor
Mar 14, 2005

Fun Shoe

PederP posted:

Seriously, though - the German response to this has been one of the most disappointing things for me. One things is the whole dragging their feet on sanctions and sending weapons, but the way German politicians refuse to accept responsibility for enabling Putin is worse. Economic integration as a way to prevent conflict and improve relations isn't bad in itself. But Germany (and some other countries in Europe) haven't just made deals with Putin - they've made themselves dependent on his regime. That was a horrible mistake and it should have resulted in a much more public mea culpa. If turning the gas off had been an option, it would've vastly increased the power of sanctions. Which might have prevented the invasion or been able to end/shorten the war.

Not a politician but i am reminded of this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/german-navy-chief-quits-after-saying-putin-deserves-respect-over-ukraine

quote:

What Putin really wanted, Schönbach argued, was respect. “On eye level, he wants respect. And my God, giving him respect is low cost, even no cost. It is easy to give him the respect he demands, and probably deserves.”

Ah yes, give the egomaniac "respect" and he will back off!

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Ola posted:

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1508092951997595650

We've heard variations on this theme a while now, most of Putin's confidence for the operation being based on corruption or downright scams. In all the tragedy, it would be great zeitgeisty comedy if all of this was due to an old man getting scammed online.

The new Oceans movie (Oceans 9? Oceans 14?) took a pretty dark turn.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Failed Imagineer posted:

It's precisely so those people don't have to actually do anything themselves, because no cause is pure enough to be worthy of their time and money, and would besmirch their impeccable leftist credentials. Only posting is praxis.

Eh, I live and work in places frequented by MSF, Red Cross, UN, etc and a lot of bespoke/tourist charity (eg, travel and building huts in Tanzania which was popular half a decade ago, young volunteers getting out to the Sahel to help literacy) is doing a lot more damage than good. Taking a big poo poo on "good intent but too far removed to know what really is helpful charity" is a good thing. More effective I think to help locally, donate regionally and to multinational NGOs and to support your respective governments foreign aid programs (the Australian one before it was gutted was genuinely doing good things in the likes of Bangladesh, Cambodia, etc which I seen first hand as an interested spectator - its not just giving money but ensuring it goes in the right direction and does not have unintended consequences).

Separate topic.
On the whole "why not declare Putin as undesirable and we should decide to change him out".
In a thread awhile ago was a post where someone asked the I think Danish ambassador to Ukraine and Russia his thoughts on the current conflict. One of the big ones was that the US deciding that Iraq would look good with a new leader and subsequently conducting the US (fig leaf pre-texts aside) unprovoked invasion of Iraq. It really put the fear to the Russian leadership because if the US has decided it should and could go around so openly changing leadership in countries to better support their own business interests and moral mores like it was the 50's in Central/South America all over again, then eventually the US is going to change out them. This drove Russian leadership to (more than their usual bent) arm strongly, fight for their corner, test out their allies and if they could not be trusted, to make a buffer of them.

The US going around deciding who runs what is a real thing a lot of the world is sensitive to and while Germany and the richest part of Europe is happy to be subservient living in shame for its colonial past, it does not mean a lot of the rest of the world wants to do that. China, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, Philippines, Malaysia, Africa make up the majority of the worlds population - has Erdogan decided that he is a good enough suckhole to the US and therefore doesn't get his rear end changed out when the timing is right? How about India? Nice democracy, be a shame if you kept prevaricating on Russia or voted in the wrong person. Stop being naughty Hungary. You watch yourself Brazil, I don't mind you being populist fash as long as you don't be too sympathetic to Chinese business....

Maybe all these countries that don't go around changing out the leaders of other countries as a habit would get together in mutual interest and resist the kink that the US has. Normally there is too much conflicting self interest for that to happen though. Hence China's belt and road and hence why it was a more then dumb gaffe by Biden.

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Just read an interesting piece on how the Russian Orchodox Church is losing their international network everywhere, their various organisations are aither going for autocephaly (independance) or defecting to patriarch of Constantinople

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2022/03/27/iskhod

They claim that even Belarusian Exarchy is going with this

Sekenr fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Mar 27, 2022

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Sekenr posted:

Just read an interesting piece on how the Russian Orchodox Church is losing their international network everywhere, their various organisations are aither going for autocephaly (independance) or defecting to patriarch of Constantinople

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2022/03/27/iskhod

thats not shocking the russian orthodox church was already slowly on the outs with alot of the other orthodox churches for the last few decades because they are insanely loving backwards and basicaly an extention of the Russian kleptocracy.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Translation thread for Zelenskyy’s interview.
https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1508126348753219587

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Dapper_Swindler posted:

thats not shocking the russian orthodox church was already slowly on the outs with alot of the other orthodox churches for the last few decades because they are insanely loving backwards and basicaly an extention of the Russian kleptocracy.

Remaining backwards as gently caress or as close as possible to the original standard of christianity thus closer to christ is what orthodoxy is all about, so a virtue.

ROC being a department of Kremlin is 100% true thus puts off a lot of people, especially now.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Nice piece of fish posted:

This is just the dumbest take.

The Red Cross practises absolute neutrality, and will never take sides in a conflict. The organization is simply not geared to favour the russian side in any way, or refuse aid to refugee, kidnap victim, russian or ukranian soldier alike. It's like saying you think that cat is barking.

With the amount of lies and propaganda being thrown around in this conflict I would be super sceptical of believing much of anything from any source, but I for sure will never believe the IRC would take sides with Russia or aid in any kind of abduction (besides caring for the victims which obviously isn't the same). Just fundamentally a horseshit assumption that needs extraordinary evidence backing it up.

Disclaimer: I am a volunteer rescue worker with the Red Cross and am currently engaged in my local efforts in receiving refugees from all over, now also Ukraine, and working with local government to house, care for and aid them. We've been able to raise hundreds of millions for the victims in Ukraine just from my country already and a huge effort is underway there. We are doing the best we can with all of our effort.

Sit the gently caress down.

Russian branch of Red Cross is helping ethnic displacement sorry that your organisation sucks

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Dapper_Swindler posted:

thats not shocking the russian orthodox church was already slowly on the outs with alot of the other orthodox churches for the last few decades because they are insanely loving backwards and basicaly an extention of the Russian kleptocracy.

with a rebel yell she QQd
Jan 18, 2007

Villain


https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1507008535678181380?s=20&t=-WWd8esYVxLZI6hphYtPHQ

Dmytro Kuleba posted this today. Machine translated:

quote:

Today in Budapest, there was an event to honor the memory of those killed in Mariupol, where Russia carried out barbarism, which Europe has not known since the Second World War.
The action in Budapest took place near the memorial "Shoes on the banks of the Danube", which commemorates the memory of Hungarian Jews, mercilessly destroyed by the Nazis. Before the murder they forced people to take off their shoes.
Today, 300 pairs of worn shoes appeared next to the bronze sculpture. In memory of at least 300 women, children and people of the elderly, who were killed by a Russian air bomb, sent by non-l люdami to the reserve in the Drama Theater in the center of Mariupol.
Activists were inspired by President Zelensky's speech. A few days ago he mentioned this special place in his address at the EU summit. He called to realize that the atrocities of the Russians in Mariupol now, in the 21st century, is no different from the Nazis atrocities in Budapest in 1944-1945. This call was echoed in the hearts of not only Ukrainians, but also many Europeans and Hungarians.
The message of Ukraine is simple. European leaders repeat year after year "Never again". But history is repeating itself, right now, in front of our eyes. Therefore, there is no sympathy now, there is need to be certain cases to prove that "Never again".
And for this, we urge partners: introduce even more even tougher sanctions, give Ukraine all the necessary weapons, ignite Russia into even deeper isolation, support Ukraine in everything until our victory.
The Ukrainian authorities and society bring this signal to all capitals and all world leaders.
I am grateful to Українська асоціація "Єдність" , our embassy, the whole Ukrainian community and organizers for this important action.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1508136947449045000

:laffo: if this is true, though it then would cast that blown up cop convoy into an even stupider light.

E Depois do Adeus
Jun 3, 2012


Nobody has better respect for intelligence than Donald Trump.

Not to distract from the charity philosophizing but i have several questions which I think will have profound ramifications going forward. I would welcome you telling me why im wrong, dumb, and bad about these issues.

- how much donated materiel was able to get to the Ukrainian armies in the east? If you have mass surrenders due to lack of food such as allegedly around Izium, that points to a less capable Ukranian force. Conversely are the Russian advances from the south and east facing similar supply issues as the northern axis? Combined with the pivot away from pressuring Kyiv directly these factors point to a much more difficult fight for the Ukrainian army in the East. I am pessimistic about their chances to return to the pre war front lines.

- unless things are under wraps at an unprecedented level, I would expect to see the results of espionage operations in cities such as Paris and Vienna. The apparent fact that no such murders have taken place suggests that either I haven't done enough research or that the thinking is that this is getting solved primarily on the battlefield. (These are not the only two possibilities but the question remains - what are the spies doing? Are the dispossessed oligarchs not a threat? )

- similarly, has there been a good explanation for why a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team was killed in a targeted operation by the Ukrainian security apparatus?

- FOOD PRICES. This is a major concern and as a OG covid poster I am not looking forward to again seeing numbers which only add up to "you're hosed but good luck guessing what that looks like". When can we expect to see these prices rise in i.a. Lebanon, Syria, Egypt? Is there an actual shortfall? Biden said that food shortages were gonna be real this year. Would this be mitigated by a quick end to the War or is this year's harvest already shot?

- regarding a quick end to the war, we may be in a perverse scenario where the polity controlling the leverage against one party (the West and sanctions) is not the one bearing the cost of continued fighting. Furthermore the voting base of the incumbent party in the US seems to oppose a deal which does not punish the aggressor. This may extend the war and exacerbate food production shortfalls.

- I don't think it escaped Russian planners that this may have pushed Sweden and Finland into NATO. Do they have contingency plans for this or are they willing to eat this as a cost of war? On the other hand, it remains to be seen how much US/EU sanctions have strengthened a hypothetical BRICS coalition; the much shorter prep time suggests that this may be an unforeseen consequence.

- does Kalyvas' violence model apply to conventional wars as well as civil wars? Seems that incumbent violence against suspected saboteurs increases as control is perceived to slip. Also Russians making deals to withdraw in contested cities (zone 3) is a very interesting trend in this regard.

- where are you finding the avs for the other thread lmao they're so good

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010
Dugin isn't particularly noteworthy or exceptional in his ideas, they're a random grab-bag of Russian history and wish fulfillment. The real issue is Russian politics, which never gave up on being able to play imperialist in the Near Abroad. Much of the old Warsaw Pact, including parts of the Soviet Union in the Baltics, were able to prosper and successfully integrate into the western liberal order despite having smaller populations, less stable governments, fewer natural resources, or weaker industries.

Russia choosing to transform into an authoritarian kleptocracy with imperial delusions was fundamentally a choice.

Hammerstein
May 6, 2005

YOU DON'T KNOW A DAMN THING ABOUT RACING !
Putin was not the only one who was surprised that the people of Ukraine believe that much in their country and are willing to fight and die for it. And it's even more amazing when considering the insane corruption and that most of the wealth is in the hands of a small group of oligarchs.

A few weeks ago there was a poll in my small Euro country, about who would stick around and fight if we were invaded. The result was something like 21%, which is on the lower end of most EU countries, which usually range in the 20-30% range. Would the people of other countries, like Germany, fight as hard as the Ukrainians so that the elites can keep their money and people like Scholz, Lambrecht or Baerbock can keep their jobs? I think not.

I believe a lot of people did not see this kind of resistance coming, unless they were really deep into geopolitics and had kept an eye on intelligence reports from the region.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Nice piece of fish posted:

This is just the dumbest take.

The Red Cross practises absolute neutrality, and will never take sides in a conflict. The organization is simply not geared to favour the russian side in any way, or refuse aid to refugee, kidnap victim, russian or ukranian soldier alike. It's like saying you think that cat is barking.

With the amount of lies and propaganda being thrown around in this conflict I would be super sceptical of believing much of anything from any source, but I for sure will never believe the IRC would take sides with Russia or aid in any kind of abduction (besides caring for the victims which obviously isn't the same). Just fundamentally a horseshit assumption that needs extraordinary evidence backing it up.

Disclaimer: I am a volunteer rescue worker with the Red Cross and am currently engaged in my local efforts in receiving refugees from all over, now also Ukraine, and working with local government to house, care for and aid them. We've been able to raise hundreds of millions for the victims in Ukraine just from my country already and a huge effort is underway there. We are doing the best we can with all of our effort.

Sit the gently caress down.

They’ve refused to help people dying in frozen forrests in my country, OP. I’m happy they work well in yours and that you get to help, too. :gbsmith:

headspace
Apr 25, 2014

PerilPastry posted:

Yeah, and even those POWs they trotted out for that press conference a while back had clearly had the poo poo beaten out of them.

edit: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10581195/Ukraine-parades-Russian-prisoners-war-press-conferences.html

I understand the sentiment, and this clearly does not help their cause. That said, I have seen videos of piles of dead Ukrainian civilians essentially being shoveled out of a hospital, so I really cant pass judgement on them. I would likely be doing all sorts of depraved poo poo if I was in their shoes.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Morrow posted:

Dugin isn't particularly noteworthy or exceptional in his ideas, they're a random grab-bag of Russian history and wish fulfillment. The real issue is Russian politics, which never gave up on being able to play imperialist in the Near Abroad. Much of the old Warsaw Pact, including parts of the Soviet Union in the Baltics, were able to prosper and successfully integrate into the western liberal order despite having smaller populations, less stable governments, fewer natural resources, or weaker industries.

Russia choosing to transform into an authoritarian kleptocracy with imperial delusions was fundamentally a choice.

I don't think history shows that the Russian people willingly chose shock therapy, tanking their own standard of living and allowing robber barons to buy up formerly-government-held services and industries. What it does show is that many of the old Warsaw Pact and former Soviet nations were given chances to integrate into the Western liberal order. Russia was not given nearly as many chances to do so. Do you honestly think they wouldn't have joined the EU in the 90s if it were actually on the table?

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Hammerstein posted:

Putin was not the only one who was surprised that the people of Ukraine believe that much in their country and are willing to fight and die for it. And it's even more amazing when considering the insane corruption and that most of the wealth is in the hands of a small group of oligarchs.

A few weeks ago there was a poll in my small Euro country, about who would stick around and fight if we were invaded. The result was something like 21%, which is on the lower end of most EU countries, which usually range in the 20-30% range. Would the people of other countries, like Germany, fight as hard as the Ukrainians so that the elites can keep their money and people like Scholz, Lambrecht or Baerbock can keep their jobs? I think not.

I believe a lot of people did not see this kind of resistance coming, unless they were really deep into geopolitics and had kept an eye on intelligence reports from the region.

There was a poll just before the war in Ukraine, which answered the same question at about 40%. Authors of the piece (sociologists) tried to answer why this number suddenly surged after the war happened, part of the explanation was that civilian population becomes more militant after missile strikes. Regardless of military or civilian targets. They noticed the same trend in Lybia and Syria. Your everyman becomes more willing to take fight personally to the enemy after long range missile strikes. We see something similar now with hatred to RU artillerymen.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

I suppose he's nuke baiting, but I love how this gambit is out in the open. May as well say out loud that the war has already ended badly and it's too late to pretend that we are a strong military power.

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1508111683323113479

Mmm tears.

Kurzon
May 10, 2013

by Hand Knit
Dugin is like American conservatives who genuinely buy into the Trump delusion. They live in their own reality, where up is down, good things are evil, and they see enemies where there are none.

Man Plan Canal
Jul 11, 2000

Listen to the madman

Majorian posted:

I don't think history shows that the Russian people willingly chose shock therapy, tanking their own standard of living and allowing robber barons to buy up formerly-government-held services and industries. What it does show is that many of the old Warsaw Pact and former Soviet nations were given chances to integrate into the Western liberal order. Russia was not given nearly as many chances to do so. Do you honestly think they wouldn't have joined the EU in the 90s if it were actually on the table?

This is a bit intractable because it wasn't on the table because they didn't have their poo poo together. There's a coup in 91. You have a very short window after that and before the mid-1990s when they're involved in the Chechen war. Another very brief window, then they had an authoritarian self-coup event in 1998, which leads to the pseudo-authoritarian constitution. By 1999 they're in the second Chechen war. Putin comes in, we get the theatre mass-slaughter in 2002 and the school hostage slaughter in 2003 or 2004. Then Russia tries to poison Yushchenko and blames it on sushi. By 2008 they're meddling in Georgia. Maybe in 2006 there's a brief window where they're not actively involved in mass violence and Putin hasn't yet totally dismantled Russian civil society. It's just hard for me to see the window of time that the EU ought to have extended an olive branch and a warm embrace?

I mean the other thing is cynically that half the tension in Russia in the 90s basically emerged from EU-friendly market reforms that austeritied the country to death, so there's a bit of a mismatch there.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Majorian posted:

I don't think history shows that the Russian people willingly chose shock therapy, tanking their own standard of living and allowing robber barons to buy up formerly-government-held services and industries. What it does show is that many of the old Warsaw Pact and former Soviet nations were given chances to integrate into the Western liberal order. Russia was not given nearly as many chances to do so. Do you honestly think they wouldn't have joined the EU in the 90s if it were actually on the table?

Yes. I think applying for EU membership would always have been incompatible with Moscow's view of Russia as a great power. The 90's could have been done better, but it would be a mistake to revise a history of the West not outstretching it's hand enough and ignore that Russia would not have accepted greater Western influence.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Majorian posted:

I don't think history shows that the Russian people willingly chose shock therapy, tanking their own standard of living and allowing robber barons to buy up formerly-government-held services and industries. What it does show is that many of the old Warsaw Pact and former Soviet nations were given chances to integrate into the Western liberal order. Russia was not given nearly as many chances to do so. Do you honestly think they wouldn't have joined the EU in the 90s if it were actually on the table?

Even if it had been on the table, I think not, because among other things joining the EU requires meeting the Copenhagen criteria, and I very much doubt Russia at any point would have been willing to accept the kind of changes that would have been required to meet them.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Electric Wrigglies posted:

The US going around deciding who runs what is a real thing a lot of the world is sensitive to and while Germany and the richest part of Europe is happy to be subservient living in shame for its colonial past, it does not mean a lot of the rest of the world wants to do that. China, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, Philippines, Malaysia, Africa

lol at putting Turkey on a list of countries that don't understand the strange ways of invading other countries and manipulating their local conditions to their liking
Or Russia for that matter, which had already been involved in multiple little foreign adventures prior to 2003.

Grape fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Mar 27, 2022

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orcane
Jun 13, 2012

Fun Shoe

Hammerstein posted:

Putin was not the only one who was surprised that the people of Ukraine believe that much in their country and are willing to fight and die for it. And it's even more amazing when considering the insane corruption and that most of the wealth is in the hands of a small group of oligarchs.

A few weeks ago there was a poll in my small Euro country, about who would stick around and fight if we were invaded. The result was something like 21%, which is on the lower end of most EU countries, which usually range in the 20-30% range. Would the people of other countries, like Germany, fight as hard as the Ukrainians so that the elites can keep their money and people like Scholz, Lambrecht or Baerbock can keep their jobs? I think not.

I believe a lot of people did not see this kind of resistance coming, unless they were really deep into geopolitics and had kept an eye on intelligence reports from the region.
I won't blame random Europeans to think so, but anyone with Ukrainian acquaintances and contacts (ie. intelligence services, foreign ministers etc.) could/should have known there was a large trend for this since 2014. Maybe not fully "participate in armed defense of my country", but at least "not handing over pur country without resistance".

orcane fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Mar 27, 2022

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