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Deteriorata posted:It's like they expected Ukraine to leave them alone because they wanted to withdraw. What started as an organized withdrawal quickly turned into a rout. What makes you say that? That is, what leads you to think they expected that?
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Apr 1, 2022 23:53
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If you had any doubts that Irpin and Bucha are cleared of troops if not mines https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1510001250816991238?t=B2rJiPxxeHHUkWeGjo7E3g&s=19 I'm guessing the Ukrainian government wouldn't let anyone quite that famous near anywhere actively hostile
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Apr 1, 2022 23:53
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mobby_6kl posted:Yes if you think about it, even once we get Russians out if Ukraine, it would be like Saddam after GW1. Someone will have to go back and finish the job a decade later. I think Vietnam would be the more apt comparison. Far too strong to attempt a second invasion and lost forever to the rival sphere of influence.
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Apr 1, 2022 23:53
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smug n stuff posted:What makes you say that? That is, what leads you to think they expected that? I don't know what they expected. It's more how they behaved. There was no air cover, no real organization beyond getting into their trucks and troop carriers and driving north. The idea that Ukrainians might attack them didn't seem to occur to them. Maybe they knew what was going to happen but were powerless to do anything else, I don't know.
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Apr 1, 2022 23:56
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Deteriorata posted:I don't know what they expected. It's more how they behaved. There was no air cover, no real organization beyond getting into their trucks and troop carriers and driving north. The idea that Ukrainians might attack them didn't seem to occur to them. Russian ground troops appear to have virtually no discretion on how to execute any given order. It does appear that leadership all along just hasn't cared about or hasn't expected opposition, at all.
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Apr 1, 2022 23:59
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smug n stuff posted:What makes you say that? That is, what leads you to think they expected that? Well, russia has been plagued with operational incompetence and defunct understandings of what the defending army is willing and capable of, from the beginning. Not a lot to go on yet, but it's starting to look like the russian fronts genuinely did have some kind of an expectation that they had been giving as hard as they had been getting, so the Ukranian troops were probably similarly exhausted and in no condition to opportunistically assault them during withdrawal. It would honestly have been more unusual if things went to plan for them during the withdrawal, because what HAS gone to plan for them?
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Apr 2, 2022 00:00
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Deteriorata posted:I don't know what they expected. It's more how they behaved. There was no air cover, no real organization beyond getting into their trucks and troop carriers and driving north. The idea that Ukrainians might attack them didn't seem to occur to them. I think right now it's too early to tell. If it turns out there's thousands of Russian troops trapped in the Kyiv pocket and hundreds of burnt out troop carriers lining the roads out then that would indicate the withdrawal was not going to plan. If there's few troops left behind and not too much materiel lost then they've managed to execute quite an effective withdrawal.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:02
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There have been a scattering of recent photos of armor from kyiv oblast but afaict about zero photos of POWs, which obviously UA has shown very little compunction about sharing—I suppose they could still be coming
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Apr 2, 2022 00:06
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Der Kyhe posted:Well, you seem to be a bot but, they live nice lives as a part of the Finnish society? No ”we” don’t.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:07
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Maybe that downed helicopter was starstreaked... https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-missile-shoots-down-first-russian-helicopter-in-ukraine-war-tztnmxqr2
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Apr 2, 2022 00:08
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Shes Not Impressed posted:First message from family in Chernihiv is 4 weeks? 5 weeks? I've lost count. I'm happy for you.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:10
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So for those who have some familiarity with the area I am curious, what's the apparent game plan with this withdrawal? Are they hoping to consolidate their forces for another push? Is to try and lure the Ukrainian defenders out to an area where they don't have as many advantages?* Or are they planning to just drop nukes on the place as Putin has been implying since the start or what? Like, it's hard to see why they'd fall back unless there's something in mind for the future on the Russian end of things. * After all, a siege is not an easy thing to win in just about any era with low casualties. Especially if morale was as high as it appeared to be amongst the Ukrainians. Archonex fucked around with this message at 00:14 on Apr 2, 2022 |
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Apr 2, 2022 00:11
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Archonex posted:So what's the gameplan with this withdrawal? Are they hoping to consolidate their forces for another push? Is to try and lure the Ukrainian defenders out to an area where they don't have as many advantages? After all, a siege is uh...Not easy to do with low casualties. Or are they planning to just drop nukes on the place as Putin has been implying since the start or what? They're definitely shifting their focus from "Regime Change" to "Win In The East, Declare Victory, Go Home". The most important thing for Putin is getting an on-paper victory, and whatever shape that victory is, it was the plan all along.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:13
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Anyway, with the advances reported south of Izyum, it seems like the next Russian attempt will to encircle forces around Severodonetsk. This is a much smaller goal than the initial plan for the ATO
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Apr 2, 2022 00:13
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mobby_6kl posted:Nobody is actually seriously advocating taking land back from russia and cleansing it, relax. I mean, in the hypothetical possible future where the Russian war effort collapses and Ukraine somehow ends up with Crimea again, I could see an effort to resettle refugees back in their homes there even if it means displacing recent Russian immigrants back to Russia. It was only 8 years ago, Ukraine probably still has lists of names of who lived there. Displacing people is ugly, yeah, but at the same time it's also un-displacing people. When you're talking about land lost fourty or more years ago, yeah, then things easily slip into "two wrongs don't make a right" territory.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:14
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smug n stuff posted:There have been a scattering of recent photos of armor from kyiv oblast but afaict about zero photos of POWs, which obviously UA has shown very little compunction about sharing—I suppose they could still be coming If there's troops left behind I don't think we'll see them surrender for a while. It's entirely possible the guys on the ground don't know the magnitude of their situation yet. My theory is that Russia was attempting a fighting withdrawal out of the pocket but Ukraine has managed to cut them off by taking the only bridge out of the area at Ivankiv. I suspect once the Russians fighting their way up from the southern parts of the pocket will give up once they work out there's nowhere to retreat into.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:14
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gay picnic defence posted:I think Vietnam would be the more apt comparison. Far too strong to attempt a second invasion and lost forever to the rival sphere of influence.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:17
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Cicero posted:Is that true? Vietnam mostly hates China from what I’ve heard, assuming that’s what you meant by rival sphere of influence. And they don’t seem as antagonistic to the US as China does either (though I’m far from an expert here). Vietnam is a bad example because it was a dumb war fought for dumb reasons by dumb people. There's really no modern parallel for the Russian relationship with Ukraine, in terms of a colony forcefully throwing off its colonizers. It's going to be a lasting enmity: less Vietnam besting America, and more Vietnam beating China, except with more humiliation.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:22
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Vietnam fighting off france is probably the better vietnam comparison, on a bunch of levels
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Apr 2, 2022 00:24
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:The winter war was bullshit but you really don't need to re-enact the time you sided with the nazis to get revenge on the great-grankids of the colonists in Vyborg, that's loving insane colonizers always expect to be forgiven eventually, it's a huge blind spot
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Apr 2, 2022 00:26
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Relevant Tangent posted:colonizers always expect to be forgiven eventually, it's a huge blind spot See the problem is you're not proposing revenge on colonizers, you're proposing revenge on people who had no say in the original colonization as a flailing way to get back at dead men and women. Are you Catholic? Real big on sins of the father? Is that the core assumption that fuels this worldview?
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Apr 2, 2022 00:29
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40 years is the magic limit huh? Israel will be pleased to hear that.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:29
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So Russia is seemingly reinforcing the East and Ukraine will have to send troops there to stop that happening, but does anyone think they'll be able push other objectives while Russia is committed to the East? Kherson? Melitopol? Crimea just to see how the Russians explain that being part of their grand plan?
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Apr 2, 2022 00:34
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Worse still, it turns out domestic Russian spell creation was completely dependent upon use of imported western magical reagents and alchemical supplies Baba Yaga has been opposed to this all along because she recognizes Duginism for what it is. The cadres of state-sanctioned witches and wizards are no match.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:36
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Relevant Tangent posted:Baba Yaga has been opposed to this all along because she recognizes Duginism for what it is. The cadres of state-sanctioned witches and wizards are no match. the immortal science of necromancy
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Apr 2, 2022 00:42
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Calm down with Crimea reclamation Clancychat.Pablo Bluth posted:Maybe that downed helicopter was starstreaked... The claim is for the exact helicopter, at the very least. Shes Not Impressed posted:First message from family in Chernihiv is 4 weeks? 5 weeks? I've lost count. All things considered, that’s quite good even!
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Apr 2, 2022 00:44
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Pablo Bluth posted:Maybe that downed helicopter was starstreaked... Called it.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:53
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Very  thread, bodies everywhere multiple cities, countless vehicles destroyed. I agree with author this is p crazy losses. you’ve been warned. The first few tweets are safe but I’m spoilering to save the squeamish https://mobile.twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1509983179188453383 E: once this is disseminated longer, and quantified we will be seeing news articles about war crimes on all the major networks Jesus Christ. Belarus sentiment https://mobile.twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1509955652323614722 Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 01:07 on Apr 2, 2022 |
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Apr 2, 2022 00:54
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gay picnic defence posted:I think Vietnam would be the more apt comparison. Far too strong to attempt a second invasion and lost forever to the rival sphere of influence. That's a really good comparison.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:55
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Deteriorata posted:I don't know what they expected. It's more how they behaved. There was no air cover, no real organization beyond getting into their trucks and troop carriers and driving north. The idea that Ukrainians might attack them didn't seem to occur to them. You have no idea what you are talking about In the Polissya direction, the enemy is operating with separate units of the 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th All-Military Army, the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th All-Military Army. It did not carry out offensive actions, its main efforts were focused on defending certain borders in order to cover the withdrawal of troops to the territory of the republic of belarus. It mines areas and equipment that cannot be evacuated, destroys infrastructure to delay the advance of our troops. https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/285759540403798 The Russians have spent the week pulling back its most damaged units, shelled forward Ukrainian units on the line of contact, mined its perimeter and line of retreat and apparently managed to slip away unmolested. When Ivankiv was retaken mid-day Ukraine time, I had hoped they had bagged some Russians, but the getaway appears to be clean. No pics of PoWs, no reports of any PoWs captured, only reports of some heavy equipment the Russians left behind. No reports of Ukrainians running down retreating Russians. The Ukrainians have not been shy about showing off PoWs if you recall the paratroopers who were just left at Hostomel in the opening hours of the war. We might still see some stragglers that didn't make it out but the withdrawal from Kyiv appears to be well done. They had the Ukrainians thinking there was a chance it was still just a rotation of the most damaged units into the rear area but the truth is pretty obvious now that the Russians have executed well and kept the exact timing of their final pullout secret. Its probably the first competent thing the Russians managed to pull off in the war. edit: fixed link MikeC fucked around with this message at 00:59 on Apr 2, 2022 |
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Apr 2, 2022 00:57
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Shes Not Impressed posted:First message from family in Chernihiv is 4 weeks? 5 weeks? I've lost count. Glad to hear they're as well as can be expected in their situation.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:58
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Captain Oblivious posted:See the problem is you're not proposing revenge on colonizers, you're proposing revenge on people who had no say in the original colonization as a flailing way to get back at dead men and women. I'm an American, my entire country was founded on stolen land. I'm not proposing revenge. Certainly a more recent colonization (in living memory) is one that is easier to undue than one where the colonizers have no native land other than the one their ancestors stole.
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Apr 2, 2022 00:58
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Ukraine's best revenge would be to accelerate reforms towards becoming as prosperous as possible. There would be no greater gently caress you to Russia than that.
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Apr 2, 2022 01:05
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Multiple videos. Driving through just reclaimed Bucha. Corpses everywhere in plain sight. code:code:
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Apr 2, 2022 01:06
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Multiple It’s absolutely insane, these are only the initial videos from Twitter and telegram. Civilians killed everywhere, madness.
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Apr 2, 2022 01:10
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Extremely extremely graphic BBC report on Russian war crimes. Charred and dead bodies, including the man who along with his wife were murdered by the Russians early on. It’s important to see, but I won’t blame anyone who can’t. Just add the s and https: back to the link. Even the still is graphic. https: //youtu.be/HNTPyAsMmx s
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Apr 2, 2022 01:10
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Multiple Jesus were the Russians just executing people as they fled?
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Apr 2, 2022 01:11
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
Saw this earlier and the sheer brutality of the Russians make me sick. They seem to have just murdered as many civilians as they could. My compassion for Russian soldiers is gone, they all deserve to burn.
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Apr 2, 2022 01:15
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mobby_6kl posted:I just came across DJI's new pro drone, Matrice 30. Here's a pretty good overview of what it can do: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcUME9wl6gc Perhaps this is not the thread to ask this, but I am really surprised we haven't see a bunch of drones with like sniper rifles attached to them this war. Is the technology not there yet to attach guns and aim from drones yet?
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Apr 2, 2022 01:18
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CommieGIR posted:Jesus were the Russians just executing people as they fled? When WW2 survivors are telling us this is worse we should expect it.
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