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Archonex posted:Word is that they're trying to claim it's a false flag or something like that. yeah, false flag, crisis actors, if it isn't fake then ukraine shot their own people to discredit russia, the old women and children were nazis so why are you even upset, you are a secret nazi lover, etc https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1510648066403143683
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Apr 3, 2022 21:30
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The general public in basically all EU countries was pro-ukrainian. The policymakers got rushed along by the currents of popular sentiment further than they thought, but it's not like it's an unpopular stance to be anti-russian.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:31
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BigglesSWE posted:I think of Chernobyl, Holodomor, Babi Yar and now all this and I go “man, Ukraine really got the bad coin flip of history”. Yeah... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv
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Apr 3, 2022 21:34
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Nothingtoseehere posted:The general public in basically all EU countries was pro-ukrainian. The policymakers got rushed along by the currents of popular sentiment further than they thought, but it's not like it's an unpopular stance to be anti-russian. The main differentiator was being up to send military aid, everybody was happy to send crates of food and medicine but, when asked for military kit, a lot of governments got cold feet. Most european governments started mulling equipment after the javelins started to flow in theatre, not a second before.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:35
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BigglesSWE posted:I think of Chernobyl, Holodomor, Babi Yar and now all this and I go “man, Ukraine really got the bad coin flip of history”. There are places that have probably had it worse than Eastern Europe (Africa, etc), but it really does seem to be the destiny of that part of the continent to just never ever catch a loving break.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:38
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This shitfit thrown by the pro-putin camp in the wake of Bucha stinks of the same poo poo by american chuds at the height of the BLM protests when they were confronted with videos of police murdering George Floyd. Like a lovely 14 year old getting called out for their inexcusable behavior and alternating between doubling down, making up bullshit reasons, denial, and just generally going into an incoherent rage.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:39
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A good point by a journalist in Bucha. https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1510695424423772165?s=19 It's an awful point, but it makes sense. Those bodies have to have been there for a while.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:41
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FishBulbia posted:Parts of it. But the coast part on the west is apparently unoccupied. The rest in unclear. The Russians still haven't completely occupied Mariupol? Ukrainians putting up one hell of a fight there.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:43
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Phlegmish posted:The Russians still haven't completely occupied Mariupol? Ukrainians putting up one hell of a fight there. Azov battalion knows they can't surrender nor retreat so they are fighting to the last men if they still fight, whoever fought with them will likely be called a nazi and shot by the russians so the same rules apply.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:45
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William Bear posted:A good point by a journalist in Bucha. It doesn't matter. The people that lie is for can't smell it through their screen and nobody else believed it to begin with.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:47
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SlowBloke posted:Azov battalion knows they can't surrender nor retreat so they are fighting to the last men if they still fight, whoever fought with them will likely be called a nazi and shot by the russians so the same rules apply. I'm pretty sure it's not just Azov battalion who understand there's nothing but a bullet for them if they surrender.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:50
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SlowBloke posted:Azov battalion knows they can't surrender nor retreat so they are fighting to the last men if they still fight, whoever fought with them will likely be called a nazi and shot by the russians so the same rules apply. Oh for sure, man.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:52
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Alchenar posted:I'm pretty sure it's not just Azov battalion who understand there's nothing but a bullet for them if they surrender.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:52
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mobby_6kl posted:None of those countries are democratic and the populations are facing constant repressions if they don't fall in line. How are they a good example? Any and every Russian war crime is a Ukrainian false flag. Ukraine must be held to account for its massacre of innocents!
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Apr 3, 2022 21:53
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More open calls for cultural genocide from Russian state media: https://mobile.twitter.com/NataliaAntonova/status/1510713209078038531?cxt=HHwWhoCyiZvqkPcpAAAA 
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Apr 3, 2022 21:53
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:yeah, false flag, crisis actors, if it isn't fake then ukraine shot their own people to discredit russia, the old women and children were nazis so why are you even upset, you are a secret nazi lover, etc This really will end with a genocide, won't it?
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Apr 3, 2022 21:56
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/NoizyMinor/status/1510705221516861440 Some random person on twitter is posting a screenshot of a random person whose post says it was posted 1 year (год) before the screenshot was taken. I'm sorry to ask but how is this relevant?
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Apr 3, 2022 21:56
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jmnmu posted:I'm sorry I just don't see the sense in the argument. Even a utilitarian perspective of "less people will die if you just submit to the dictator" is a massive assumption. When there's intelligence coming in suggesting that Putin is interested in disappearing undesirables and Putin is willing to publicly state that Ukraine shouldn't exist. People making this argument don't seem to respect Ukraine's right to choose the future that they want. It's really easy for these (mostly affluent Americans) to say Ukraine should just submit to Putin when it basically guarantees a grim future for the majority of Ukrainian people whichever way things go. To a degree, I get it: I saw a post that had a decent metaphor, which was something to the effect of "if the Mongols show up at your city and say 'submit and be spared or fight and be completely destroyed', you would probably throw the guy saying 'let's fight to the death' out a window." Which, sure, I can buy that. But, of course, the Mongols were an overwhelming power that could not realistically be stopped by most cities. If Russia fully mobilized World War 2-style and massed 6 million troops outside of Ukraine against a couple hundred thousand defenders, it would probably be worth saying "maybe this one isn't going to work out for us." But that's not what happened, and Russia has pretty clearly been proven to be eminently stop-able. There is the theory that, if Russia truly saw the war as an existential threat, they would go to any lengths to win it - but now they are withdrawing from most fronts and giving up on regime change, so that would certainly imply that they have accepted that they will have a hostile Ukraine on their border no matter what happens. Ukraine insisted they could stop Russia, and they proved most analysts predicting doom wrong (including me). But I also think the analysis missed the fact that even if the Russians achieved victory, it wasn't really ever likely to actually result in anything but a large and long insurgency. That is no better of an outcome for Ukraine.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:57
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OddObserver posted:More open calls for cultural genocide from Russian state media: Yup, there it is. Turning back the clock over a hundred years and even further back to Tsarist times, when no such thing as "Ukraine" existed, only a "tri-partite" Russian nation consisting of Great, Little and White Russians. Tens of millions of Ukrainians are simply confused about their actual national identity. This is what it means to correct Lenin's colossal, historical mistake, as Putin sees it. Out of the eradication of this historical error, Greater Russia will rise and finally take head-on the Globalist agenda.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:57
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fnox posted:This really will end with a genocide, won't it? End with a genocide? The genocide is happening.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:58
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SourKraut posted:A lot of the specialized equipment needed to maintain fab logistics, are produced by only a companies that, as far as I know, have no presence in Russia. They can’t realistically make anything performant using Mikron (not to be confused with micron) 65nm process and it’s doubtful they can ramp up wafer starts to accommodate their market needs. 65nm was leading edge during intel core 2 duo circa 2008. Even trying to Build domestic fab capacity using 15 year old nodes like 65nm takes billions and years to do without the semiconductor embargo. It will be illegal imports for all their needs until the chip embargo is over. Being embargo’d for semiconductors is extremely bad.
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Apr 3, 2022 21:59
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HolHorsejob posted:This shitfit thrown by the pro-putin camp in the wake of Bucha stinks of the same poo poo by american chuds at the height of the BLM protests when they were confronted with videos of police murdering George Floyd. Like a lovely 14 year old getting called out for their inexcusable behavior and alternating between doubling down, making up bullshit reasons, denial, and just generally going into an incoherent rage. The "false flag" excuse is the go-to for anyone who's worldview has been confronted by uncomfortable facts. It lets you simply reverse who's the good guy and who's the bad guy in any given situation. And then you can double down because the bad guys are so bad they killed those people just to make us look bad! And then once you've accepted one "false flag" conspiracy theory the next is easier because you know they've already done this before. Really eases the cognitive dissonance, and all you had to give up was being moored to reality.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:00
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It's barely worth Russia wasting their breath denying this stuff. We know they're going to lie about it and anyone willing to believe their denials would make up their own conspiracy regardless. The biggest impact this is going to have for Russia is the sheer amount of cover it will give countries to increase sanctions. The more of this people see, the more pain they're willing to put up with to make Russia suffer. Any hope that the sanctions would end when Russia withdraws is gone, because when they eventually leave they will leave this in their wake. These abuses were clearly planned by the Russians in advance and it's quite incredible how badly they miscalculated it. I don't really understand the purpose of these sorts of atrocities in their plan, but clearly they had no idea they were going to have to abandon this territory and reveal it to the world. I wonder if there will be a point where Russia stops operating on their fantasy idea of the invasion and actually starts reacting to reality or whether this is all they're capable of.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:01
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OddObserver posted:More open calls for cultural genocide from Russian state media: I can't even sarcastically point out the hypocrisy anymore, I'm just so tired of Russia's poo poo
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Apr 3, 2022 22:02
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fnox posted:This really will end with a genocide, won't it? You don't invade a place expecting zero opposition with an army of riot police and state security in tow, acknowledged lists of people for them to disappear, brand new regs for creating mass graves, and mobile crematoriums unless you expect to be doing some mass murder.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:07
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fnox posted:This really will end with a genocide, won't it? Already happening, the size of the genocide will depend on who wins.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:10
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Concerned Citizen posted:To a degree, I get it: I saw a post that had a decent metaphor, which was something to the effect of "if the Mongols show up at your city and say 'submit and be spared or fight and be completely destroyed', you would probably throw the guy saying 'let's fight to the death' out a window." Which, sure, I can buy that. But, of course, the Mongols were an overwhelming power that could not realistically be stopped by most cities. If Russia fully mobilized World War 2-style and massed 6 million troops outside of Ukraine against a couple hundred thousand defenders, it would probably be worth saying "maybe this one isn't going to work out for us." But that's not what happened, and Russia has pretty clearly been proven to be eminently stop-able. There is the theory that, if Russia truly saw the war as an existential threat, they would go to any lengths to win it - but now they are withdrawing from most fronts and giving up on regime change, so that would certainly imply that they have accepted that they will have a hostile Ukraine on their border no matter what happens. Also the more I look into it, the less clear it becomes why anyone expected Ukraine to fold quickly in the first place. Short of instant Crimea-like collapse, this kind of situation would've made much more sense. Russia doesn't actually have a numeric superiority, or even much of a technologial one outside of air power, and certainy no motivation. I wonde if this was part of the pysops to make russia over-confident, but then of course this could've encouraged them to start the war which could've been avoided if they understood what they'd be getting into. OddObserver posted:More open calls for cultural genocide from Russian state media:
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Apr 3, 2022 22:13
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Nenonen posted:Some random person on twitter is posting a screenshot of a random person whose post says it was posted 1 year (год) before the screenshot was taken. Год is short for година i.e. "hour" in Ukrainian
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Apr 3, 2022 22:13
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MikeC posted:@Csniper. Is NATO talk back on the menu? No, I’m just not reading the thread actively today. The last couple of pages have been boring trash with repetitive arguments, if I’m being candid. Literally no one opens this thread to learn more about Mearsheimer.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:14
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fnox posted:This really will end with a genocide, won't it? genocides generally don't end things
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Apr 3, 2022 22:14
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Sorry, meant this for another thread.
PeterCat fucked around with this message at 22:27 on Apr 3, 2022 |
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Apr 3, 2022 22:15
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Relevant Tangent posted:genocides generally don't end things They sure end people, their culture and their livelihoods.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:16
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Someone please explain this to me like I’m 5. Why is sending Ukraine all kinds of lethal high tech weapons like the Javelin not a provocation or escalation but giving them stuff like Strykers, Bradleys, S400s and Mig-29s is a bridge too far and WW3? YouTube is full of ex green berets and us military personnel basically saying that there’s foreign fighters from NATO countries who used to be officers and enlisted personnel in nato armies actively inflicting casualties on Russian troops as we speak with nato made weapons. The argument is WW3 is already here and we just don’t want to call it that yet. So what does giving Ukraine mechanized vehicles do that giving them javelins, stingers and other missiles doesn’t? Just loving do it. The Russians are committing mass war crimes and rapes here. This poo poo is even worse than what Serbia did to the Bosnians and Kosovars and yet NATO got involved and bombed Serbia to poo poo. Just send the Ukrainians the loving vehicles already or shut the gently caress up about it.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:16
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BigglesSWE posted:I think of Chernobyl, Holodomor, Babi Yar and now all this and I go “man, Ukraine really got the bad coin flip of history”. Ukraine is also one of the most fertile soils in the world and I for one sure would like to visit Ukraine once the fighting is over, see Odesa, Kyiv and the Dnipro etc. Naturally this war is a totally unnecessary hardship on the people, but they are also blessed in many ways, which I guess is the reason why various armies have had an interest in taking it over.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:18
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Kraftwerk posted:Someone please explain this to me like I’m 5. Pretty sure no one has seriously discussed sending US armored vehicles in. The planes apparently need a teardown and rebuild to remove all the Nato specific hardware and software before they can be transfered over and the transferring over is a headache for reasons gone over many many times in thread. US stockpiles of soviet equipment, including tanks is in the process of being sent over irrc. Weapons are incredibly easy to ship, train on, and keep logistical trains reasonable in comparison to sending over vehicles. Foreign fighters in Ukraine undergo a fairly selective intake process and then are directly under Ukrainian military command, as far as we know. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 22:28 on Apr 3, 2022 |
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Apr 3, 2022 22:21
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Chalks posted:It's barely worth Russia wasting their breath denying this stuff. We know they're going to lie about it and anyone willing to believe their denials would make up their own conspiracy regardless.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:24
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PederP posted:Which is by choice because they like peace dividends very much. Europe has neglected military spending on purpose. These countries could've built massive militaries if they'd wanted to. But that is not where European ambitions are at the moment (with a few exceptions as mentioned by others). And that is really where Mearsheimer, China and many others fail to grasp Europe. We don't lack military power because we're unable to attain it. We have the economy, demographics and technology to do so. But Europe chose to focus on something else - and to a large extent to mooch on US military spending in the aftermath of the cold war. And until Russia invaded Ukraine, most of Europe considered it a waste of money to even have a military. European great powers gently caress with the smaller powers within Europe (eg Greece, Spain) and are not willingly relinquishing their right to gently caress over the states within their spheres of influence every time they get uppity (eg, French West Africa, Southern Africa such as Zambia and Rwanda, Belgium still is a swinging dick in the Congo on the QT). The only place they don't seem to have a huge influence but I could be wrong is Ethiopia with its 100k+ people casualty conflict which is to say that the US and the old great power paradigm is not the blame for all the worlds ills. And to your chat about US and Europe, this conflict absolutely puts Europe backwards relative to the US and UK. The EU will be on the hook to put up a half arsed marshal plan/integrating a poorer version of Hungary into the EU while having its cheap energy cut off and the Russian buying market transition to China. We already seen Russia pull its pet attack dogs out of Mali so will see if Europe can retain its spheres of influence in Africa now that Africa voted with China and Russia.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:27
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Kraftwerk posted:Someone please explain this to me like I’m 5. Rifles, machine guns and rocket launchers is something you provide expecting that it's up to the end user to manage, beyond the consumables it's a sealed deal. Tanks and planes on the other hand require a poo poo load of training to both tankers/pilots and service crews. Also every hour of usage is wear that will require a steady flow of spares to compensate. It's expensive and has stronger implications. Given the love for Russia to ship kit along with "advisers" to manage and field them, i think nato doesn't want to trigger self-projection on the Russian side.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:29
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Concerned Citizen posted:To a degree, I get it: I saw a post that had a decent metaphor, which was something to the effect of "if the Mongols show up at your city and say 'submit and be spared or fight and be completely destroyed', you would probably throw the guy saying 'let's fight to the death' out a window." Which, sure, I can buy that. But, of course, the Mongols were an overwhelming power that could not realistically be stopped by most cities. If Russia fully mobilized World War 2-style and massed 6 million troops outside of Ukraine against a couple hundred thousand defenders, it would probably be worth saying "maybe this one isn't going to work out for us." But that's not what happened, and Russia has pretty clearly been proven to be eminently stop-able. There is the theory that, if Russia truly saw the war as an existential threat, they would go to any lengths to win it - but now they are withdrawing from most fronts and giving up on regime change, so that would certainly imply that they have accepted that they will have a hostile Ukraine on their border no matter what happens. The Mongol analogy misses the mark on several points, it is not an accurate picture of the situation. "Submit and be spared" was never a realistic option and Ukraine knew this. "Submit and accept a brutal dictatorship that will result in death and suffering" or "fight a costly war" were the options they had on the table. The morale of the Ukrainian people is quite high and it seems the population more or less agrees that resisting Putin has been necessary. We have a good picture of what Putin had planned for Ukraine and allowing him to take over was going to result in severe suffering and an unacceptable threat to the existence of Ukrainian culture and well being of the people. The Mongol analogy is also off the mark in it overexaggerates the differences in power between the two countries. Russia had their hands full with Chechnya, a place with less than 5% of the entire population of Ukraine. My first reaction to this conflict was that 200 000 Russian soldiers was an unrealistic sized army to take over a country the size of Ukraine, especially against a highly motivated and similar sized peer army. A Ukrainian defeat was never certain and when you factor in Western aid the Russian army wasn't some unstoppable force, in fact they have almost certainly taken the biggest death toll between the two armies so far, perhaps by a considerable degree. I get why you bring up this analogy but it falls apart pretty fast. jmnmu fucked around with this message at 22:34 on Apr 3, 2022 |
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Apr 3, 2022 22:30
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Kraftwerk posted:Someone please explain this to me like I’m 5. Providing new vehicles of various kinds is I think a marginal gray zone, and Russia certainly has possible downsides from escalation too, so maybe you could get away with it, but it would be pushing things. And pushing things doesn't mean one MiG-29 = destruction of modern civilization. Having NATO enforce a no-fly zone would mean that NATO personnel of some kind would perhaps directly shoot down Russian personnel and that would be an escalation and mean that NATO people are directly and, so to speak, "Officially" shooting at them -- as opposed to random '''volunteers''' going to Ukraine, who are at least deniable. "Oh, that guy was crazy, he said he loved Zelensky's show so much, we weren't able to talk him down. What can you do." It's weird and irrational because it's like court cases and nobody wants to push it further than is "necessary." The problem is of course that what is geostrategically "necessary" (make it so Ukraine does not get conquered, mostly) is different from the moral plane. The flip side of that is that providing Ukraine with unlimited modern equipment for free could have long-term consequences - would not have guaranteed their victory - and also would have the possibility of directly provoking Russia to launch the nukes. This is an explanation of the calculus as I understand it, not an endorsement of it.
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Apr 3, 2022 22:34
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