|
Antigravitas posted:It reads like Anglo media has found their next No Fly Zone. While I think the sentiment is right fundamentally - EU can be viewed as singularly responsible for Russia still having a positive cash flow - I’ll agree that I’m irritated with the discourse focusing on gas much more than on oil.
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:20
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 3, 2024 22:35 |
|
|
Antigravitas posted:It would indeed be good if people talked about the actual effects of the policies they demand and shut up if they can't, yes. In the UK alone, the Financial Times, the Daily Express and the Independent have three distinct editorial viewpoints: they generally report on different stories, draw different conclusions and challenge different narratives. On the television, Channel 4 News takes a very different perspective to the BBC, with ITV closer to the BBC but somewhere in the middle. The most that can fairly be said is that they usually have a consensus on what are actually proven facts. Outside this, there is Murdoch’s media empire, which straddles this “mainstream” and some weird and wonderful places where the facts are different. That’s just in one country of 70 odd million. Nobody, as far as I know, is at risk of arrest for publishing on social media a story that challenges the approved narrative. Since the late 2000s I’ve been living in various bits of China, where this is emphatically not the case. It doesn’t appear to be the case in Russia either. So I’m always interested to hear from people who think - not saying you do - that the kind of manufacturing consent you get in the west sometimes is the same as real, go-to-jail-and-get-beaten censorship, because that’s a pig ignorant view. It’s more like a sliding scale: Censored media: Don’t trust framing or facts unless it’s something totally uncontroversial Manufactured consent media: Don’t trust framing and be sceptical about “facts” Perfectly free and independent media: dunno, if I ever see one I guess I’ll trust it
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:21
|
|
|
Warmachine posted:Would invading after an application is filed be the "one weird trick to circumventing Article 5" or would NATO do something about such a naked retaliation? I don't know. I'd imagine it would depend on the nature of the military action. Lord knows Russia has enough on their plate without launching a full scale invasion in another theater. If Russia "just" pulled the little green men ploy again seeking to prevent NATO accession due to "contested territory" I'd imagine NATO countries would content themselves to material support that would be orders of magnitude more comprehensive than what's being sent to Ukraine. That and I'd imagine China would be faced with an ultimatum about whether to stop their tacit support of Russia or risk losing the west as a trading partner. Of course, I'm just speculating here. Let's hope cooler heads prevail.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:24
|
|
|
Letmebefrank posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x54juxDGBzU Yeah, it is a good video and a good analysis. I think he is right, but missing two more aspects which also is a factor: Russian nationalism/revanchism. It is my understanding that there has been a feedback loop between the Russian public and the Russian elite, where nationalism, anti-western sentiments and general 'bitterness' at the world order, has been on the rise. This also ties somewhat into the points of his video - the Eastern European nations which were left with many hard choices in 89-91, did so from a position of hope and ambition. There have been setbacks and challenges, but in general the arc has been one of hope and progressive sentiment. Russia, the former core of the Soviet empire, was left defeated, bitter and hopeless. That failed economic reforms and hardship that followed nurtured these feelings. The former vassals joining EU and/or NATO contributed as well. The oil boom came at the same time as Russian military started asserting itself again. After Crimea, sanctions hit, and this further created anti-western sentiment. So there is also a nation which is very receptive to revanchist rhetoric. It is the prevailing sentiment of the elite - and from what we know, of Putin as well. He is angry and bitter at the current status of Russian international power and respect. Finally, and I will make this shorter: Russian demographics and the move to sustainable energy means that time is working against Putin. Passivity will also mean more of Eastern Europe slides towards EU/NATO (and more of central asia towards China). So if he wants to take a risk and go for bigger gains, like Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Baltics, etc. now was the time. The decision to go through with the Kyiv plan - and not a Donbas annexation, Crimean landbridge or long-term destabilization effort - was thus influenced by anti-western and revanchist sentiment and the ticking clock. Putin could not be patient and avoid risk.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:24
|
|
|
PerilPastry posted:Also if Russia was going to act militarily re: Finland surely they would do so before-hand to forestall their accession to NATO rather than after they'd been given the Article 5 protection they're so eager to prevent them getting. And if they do that, there is a 100% chance that the rest of the Scandinavian countries will join in their defence regardless of NATO status. It is just.. the idiocy on display here from Russia is staggering. Just.. Just staggering!
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:26
|
|
|
If helicopters are flying low they are obviously hard to hit, but if they are operating at the edge of their range then it's much easier to predict their route, which would necessarily approach a straight line as the range got longer. Unless they are landing next to trucks for refueling along the way, which would be an ever greater thing to hit with a Stugna.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:26
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:Just managed to connect and call, learned that they were able to get to Taganrog in Rostov region today (at least some military are decent people so they got them through border past filtration etc), grandmother is getting medical care, family already driving from Volgograd to pick them up, hopefully tomorrow we will be able to take care of them. That’s actually good news! Fingers crossed that your grandmother received proper treatment.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:29
|
|
|
JerikTelorian posted:I have to imagine the logistics for getting this thing running again would be immense, right? The engines are probably fouled beyond all repair and would need a complete rebuild, and I imagine the piping and wiring is probably ruined too. USS West Virginia was sunk during Pearl Harbour (Dec 1941), refloated in May 1942, and ready for service in 1944. USS California was also sunk during Pearl Harbour, refloated in April 1942, and also returned for service in 1944. So it may be possible to refloat that, but it would likely take awhile before it could be ready for service again.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:30
|
|
|
Warmachine posted:Would invading after an application is filed be the "one weird trick to circumventing Article 5" or would NATO do something about such a naked retaliation? As always, international law is whatever people say it is. Two months ago I'd have assumed NATO member states would look for any excuse to shrug and do nothing. Today, I'm impressed with their willingness to stand up to Russia. Two years from now, I gotta assume Germany's going to use their army while it still has that new car smell.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:31
|
|
|
HappyHippo posted:USS West Virginia was sunk during Pearl Harbour (Dec 1941), refloated in May 1942, and ready for service in 1944. USS California was also sunk during Pearl Harbour, refloated in April 1942, and also returned for service in 1944. Those were also considerably more stout ships, built to withstand battle damage. I rather suspect that the hull of that russian cargo ship is beyond hosed, and repairing it would be more difficult than scrapping it and starting anew.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:32
|
|
|
Doccers posted:Those were also considerably more stout ships, built to withstand battle damage. Especially as that ship largely burned to the waterline, the Pearl Harbor surviving ships had fire control all over them even as they sunk, and it was no small task to bring those back from the bottom of Pearl.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:35
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:Remember that video of Ukrainians hitting a low-hovering helicopter with an ATGM? Russians don't. Cool, the Ukrainians can take out an entire convoy with a SAM!
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:35
|
|
|
PerilPastry posted:I don't know. I'd imagine it would depend on the nature of the military action. Lord knows Russia has enough on their plate without launching a full scale invasion in another theater. If Russia "just" pulled the little green men ploy again seeking to prevent NATO accession due to "contested territory" I'd imagine NATO countries would content themselves to material support that would be orders of magnitude more comprehensive than what's being sent to Ukraine. That and I'd imagine China would be faced with an ultimatum about whether to stop their tacit support of Russia or risk losing the west as a trading partner. Of course, I'm just speculating here. Let's hope cooler heads prevail. With China, I still see the level of sanctions imposed on Russia as a non-starter. So much industry is bottled up in China that "losing the west as a trading partner" would cause international capital to lose its poo poo. And even with, for example, the US attempts to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the states with new foundries and the like, we're a LONG ways from being able to clean-break from China without the economic equivalent of self-castration. The notion is just loony, at least from my point of view.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:36
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:the EU can absolutely decouple from russian gas in a way that it cannot go to war with russia. one would cause economic damage to the EU, potentially severe. the other potentially ends the world. the two are not remotely similar because the EU can absorb the cost of cutting off russian gas, it would just be painful. "Economic damage" is just as abstract as "No fly zone". What we are talking about here is a good chunk of industry being forced to shut down as governments prioritise residential (in countries that have that option. Bulgaria imports >80% from Russia…). In effect it would disrupt the start of basically all logistics chains you can think of. When BASF in Europe is forced to shut down it will be felt world wide. Decoupling is under way, and there is absolutely no question that it must happen. But you can't substitute like you can with with oil and coal, and it would be much more productive to talk about how to do that quickly.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:37
|
|
|
Gejnor posted:And if they do that, there is a 100% chance that the rest of the Scandinavian countries will join in their defence regardless of NATO status. Well, I'm sure Sweden would. I can't speak to Norway but all of Denmark's forces are more or less occupied in the Baltic and I'm sure we'd find other excuse to stay out of the fray too. But in any case the EU mutual defense clause would certainly apply and while it's no Article 5, I can't even begin to imagine the kind of financial and military support that would be flooding into Finland in this kind of scenario. Warmachine posted:With China, I still see the level of sanctions imposed on Russia as a non-starter. So much industry is bottled up in China that "losing the west as a trading partner" would cause international capital to lose its poo poo. And even with, for example, the US attempts to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the states with new foundries and the like, we're a LONG ways from being able to clean-break from China without the economic equivalent of self-castration. The notion is just loony, at least from my point of view. PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Apr 6, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:38
|
|
|
Re: Orban. At least there's this. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1511710622773297152 nws account of you click through
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:38
|
|
|
Alan Smithee posted:Cool, the Ukrainians can take out an entire convoy with a SAM! On that note - not sure if this is the full reporters briefing or an individual interview, but the thread is interesting. This quote seems the most apropos at the moment https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1511712510931525639?s=20&t=Sd0sFcKLYqxuKfuSR5gqQw
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:39
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:On that note - not sure if this is the full reporters briefing or an individual interview, but the thread is interesting. This quote seems the most apropos at the moment with any luck we won't have to wait til the parade to see a T14 break down again
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:47
|
|
|
Beefeater1980 posted:So I’m always interested to hear from people who think - not saying you do - that the kind of manufacturing consent you get in the west sometimes is the same as real, go-to-jail-and-get-beaten censorship, because that’s a pig ignorant view. It’s more like a sliding scale: Just for the record, I do not mean that it is manufactured at all. It feels more like they all follow each other on Twitter and Twitter hot takes more and more infest English language newspapers. (Not the FT yet, thankfully) We've talked about it in this thread before, that the view of the world in other cultures is often radically different, i.e. China's view of Europe is starkly different than that of the "West". In my experience a smaller but similar rift exists between the French and German and English speaking world. As an example, the no fly zone was not a thing in German media beyond reporting on what the Anglos are talking about.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:49
|
|
|
Alan Smithee posted:with any luck we won't have to wait til the parade to see a T14 break down again I love the T14 so much. I refuse to believe that there's more than or two working models. The rest are probably gutted of their highest technology with like no spare parts for any other part of the tank.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:54
|
|
|
Warmachine posted:With China, I still see the level of sanctions imposed on Russia as a non-starter. So much industry is bottled up in China that "losing the west as a trading partner" would cause international capital to lose its poo poo. And even with, for example, the US attempts to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the states with new foundries and the like, we're a LONG ways from being able to clean-break from China without the economic equivalent of self-castration. The notion is just loony, at least from my point of view.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:57
|
|
|
PerilPastry posted:But in any case the EU mutual defense clause would certainly apply and while it's no Article 5, I can't even begin to imagine the kind of financial and military support that would be flooding into Finland in this kind of scenario. Cynic in me says that "we get to hear several heart-breaking eulogies for the Finnish people" because Germany will block all economic sanctions and EU activities that might hurt their economy, and Hungary will block all NATO assistance. Those Putin-supporting assholes, everything Germany has done so far has been "We absolutely condemn the Russian actions with the rest of the EU. However...", and dumping that rusty DDR gear to Ukraine. Schröder is a Putin family friend, Merkel approved setting their entire energy infrastructure to be dependent of Russia, and Scholz visited Moscow just days before this war started, most likely to sell the Eastern parts of EU and Ukraine to Russia, and ensure that they get that precious gas on below-the-market prize for not intervening and hindering the EU response like it so far has been doing.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 15:58
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1511710786267521032 https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1511706423033483274
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:03
|
|
PerilPastry posted:Well, I'm sure Sweden would. I can't speak to Norway but all of Denmark's forces are more or less occupied in the Baltic and I'm sure we'd find other excuse to stay out of the fray too. But in any case the EU mutual defense clause would certainly apply and while it's no Article 5, I can't even begin to imagine the kind of financial and military support that would be flooding into Finland in this kind of scenario. The EU defense clause is stronger than the NATO Article 5 EU Treaty quote:7. If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States. NATO quote:The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. Why is NATO seen as more relevant at the moment? For one NATO is larger and the US is a member and for another most EU countries have fully integrated their military in the NATO infrastructure while the EU does not have any.
|
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:04
|
|
|
Der Kyhe posted:...Hungary will block all NATO assistance. Regarding this, can Hungary really do anything like that though? Unlike a lot of EU-processes there really isn'ta NATO member veto against other NATO members doing whetever they please. If the US, UK or France, or all of them, decide to intervene on behalf of Finland, or whatever other nation they choose, there really isn't poo poo Hungary could do about it. They just can't be forced to participate themselves.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:06
|
|
|
I saw a photo of this yesterday but now there's video and  https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1511711884499730438?s=20&t=8hSppamLm8HccbqxaL5k9w And to make this post actually informational here's the link to the new US sanctions just implemented https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1511715451738464256?s=20&t=fHsLXt-PAHxAN_EWGn882w Big items: Full blocking sanctions on Russia’s largest financial institution, Sberbank, and Russia’s largest private bank, Alfa Bank. Full blocking sanctions on critical major Russian state-owned enterprises. This will prohibit any U.S. person from transacting with these entities and freeze any of their assets subject to U.S. jurisdiction The U.S. Treasury prohibited Russia from making debt payments with funds subject to U.S. jurisdiction There's some other stuff in there - Putin's adult daughters are sanctioned, Biden is going to sign an executive order banning investment in Russia, etc.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:12
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:I saw a photo of this yesterday but now there's video and This is good, but the EU is the party with the most tools and teeth. Russian banks aside, no Russian citizen is dumb enough to use American financial institutions and America will never be dependent on Russian oil/gas.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:14
|
|
|
Ola posted:Re: Orban. At least there's this. I'm not Hungarian or really pay much attention to Hungarian politics, but my interpretation of the victory speech mentioning Zelenskyy was that he felt like he was running against Zelenskyy as an opponent in the election, due to the media and such. Not that he necessarily viewed Zelenskyy/Ukraine as a battlefield opponent. Hopefully now that the election is over, he'll continue to walk back the rhetoric.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:15
|
|
|
GaussianCopula posted:The EU defense clause is stronger than the NATO Article 5 This is not how life works. It's about the credible organisations, structures and resources in place.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:15
|
|
|
Der Kyhe posted:Cynic in me says that "we get to hear several heart-breaking eulogies for the Finnish people" because Germany will block all economic sanctions and EU activities that might hurt their economy, and Hungary will block all NATO assistance. Yeah. EU would do nothing because of Germany. They would let the whole east burn before jeopardizing their prosperity. Individual countries might help, but not as a block. Sweden might help because they know they would be next should Finland fall. The only really meaningful alliance is full NATO membership.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:17
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:This is not how life works. It's about the credible organisations, structures and resources in place. But at the same time, if they don't the EU is finished. bad_fmr posted:Yeah. EU would do nothing because of Germany. They would let the whole east burn before jeopardizing their prosperity. Individual countries might help, but not as a block. Sweden might help because they know they would be next should Finland fall. We would yes, if our Government refused they'd be pulled out of office and replaced with one that would. But, not to go all "nato doesn't understand the delicate balance between Ukraine and Russia" here, the Scandinavian countries are quite tightknit as is already. An attack on Finland would be perceived as an attack on all of us. Gejnor fucked around with this message at 16:21 on Apr 6, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:18
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:This is not how life works. It's about the credible organisations, structures and resources in place. The EU is more credible and has stronger structures than NATO. It also has a Commission enforcing the treaties and a Court of Justice interpreting them (though I must admit I haven't double checked how those relate to the mutual defence clause, which is part of the common security and defence policy and typically carves out Commission and/or ECJ action in that field). Also more generally, there's no unanimity requirements for the mutual defence clause to be triggered so every Member state could a) tell Germany to get stuffed and unilaterally send all the help they can muster to the Finns while any obstructionists pound sand and b) point at this clause to tell the Germans they should do more or else the Union implodes
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:37
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:Well, with China it's not really the issue because if they try to invade Taiwan the US will probably try to defend it and there will simply vbe open war between the teo that shuts down all trade immediately Maybe I'm naive, but I still don't see how the powers-that-be in either country would risk open war over Taiwan. Both China and the US are keenly aware how interdependent they are, and while China could probably retool and develop economic independence faster, is the cost really worth trading over a small but embarrassing island? Especially with Ukraine setting to precedent what a boondoggle such an invasion would likely be. For all the saber rattling over the past decade, I would imagine China is reevaluating its doctrines as it watches Russia bang its dick in a door.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:38
|
|
|
Warmachine posted:Maybe I'm naive, but I still don't see how the powers-that-be in either country would risk open war over Taiwan. Both China and the US are keenly aware how interdependent they are, and while China could probably retool and develop economic independence faster, is the cost really worth trading over a small but embarrassing island? Worth noting that Taiwan is even more militarily capable than Ukraine even, it would not be a small fight. China is for sure reading the room on a possible military action there.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:39
|
|
|
Deltasquid posted:The EU is more credible and has stronger structures than NATO. It also has a Commission enforcing the treaties and a Court of Justice interpreting them (though I must admit I haven't double checked how those relate to the mutual defence clause, which is part of the common security and defence policy and typically carves out Commission and/or ECJ action in that field). Cool. Who is the EU's equivalent of SACEUR? e: for bonus points, when was the last time the EU exercised a division in the field under CSDP? Alchenar fucked around with this message at 16:44 on Apr 6, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:41
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Worth noting that Taiwan is even more militarily capable than Ukraine even, it would not be a small fight. China is for sure reading the room on a possible military action there. It's also not possible to prep for a naval invasion without extremely visible troop and naval unit movements that the US would be sure to loudly broadcast, the same way they did with Ukraine/Russia. Frankly, it's more likely Taiwan and China approach legal integration before military, the political situation is vastly different than it was 15 years ago.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:44
|
|
|
Warmachine posted:Maybe I'm naive, but I still don't see how the powers-that-be in either country would risk open war over Taiwan. Both China and the US are keenly aware how interdependent they are, and while China could probably retool and develop economic independence faster, is the cost really worth trading over a small but embarrassing island? CommieGIR posted:Worth noting that Taiwan is even more militarily capable than Ukraine even, it would not be a small fight. China is for sure reading the room on a possible military action there. both china and the US are learning lots from Russian breaking their jaw over and over on Ukraine. also both now realize that soft power is way way more helpful to expanding goals then war is, especially fast planned ones.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:45
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:Cool. Who is the EU's equivalent of SACEUR? For even more bonus points, recall that D&D rules stipulate meeting effort with effort.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:47
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Worth noting that Taiwan is even more militarily capable than Ukraine even, it would not be a small fight. China is for sure reading the room on a possible military action there. taiwan is an island. the war in ukraine has very little direct parallels to an invasion of taiwan, which would first and foremost be a battle of air and naval supremacy to keep the transports with troops away. china also has been prepping its troops for such an invasion for decades, morale-wise: they're not going to be "wtf what are we doing where are we going" so they will not have the same morale issues the relevant lessons for china are, mostly, (a) the world is a lot more willing to support an invaded democratic country than perhaps they were counting on; and (b) there may be a big discrepancy between what they view as their strength on paper and their strength in reality, and the same for taiwan. but it is also worth pointing out that while china has issues with corruption, it does not have the same issues as russia where the country's government is just a thin veneer for stealing, and so it probably has lesser issues with "uh someone sold all the armor on these tanks" than russia did. Pook Good Mook posted:It's also not possible to prep for a naval invasion without extremely visible troop and naval unit movements that the US would be sure to loudly broadcast, the same way they did with Ukraine/Russia. china gleefully shredding the "one country two systems" and trampling on its ashes in hong kong makes it...harder...to convince taiwan to accept something similar
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:48
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 3, 2024 22:35 |
|
|
Pook Good Mook posted:
That seems unlikely to me given what has been going on in Hong Kong.
|
|
#
?
Apr 6, 2022 16:48
|
|
