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Charliegrs posted:So say Europe cut off all Russian gas and oil tomorrow. What would the affect be? Would everyone freeze to death? Do they not have any alternatives? That would be a global supply chain crisis affecting pretty much every product imaginable. Gas is widely used in anything from fertiliser production to glass smelting. Since that affects products at the start of supply chains you could see widening cascading failures far beyond Europe. Unlike oil and coal, gas is hard to move around. Import substitution is nontrivial and requires building new pipelines and other infrastructure. Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:I think I remember this is non-binding. You remember wrong. hth. golden bubble posted:just like when they sent thousands of moldy Strela manpads last month that couldn't be used by Ukraine due to mold and rust. This didn't happen. They were inspected before sending and defective hardware removed. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Antigravitas fucked around with this message at 07:29 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 07:23
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Simon Ostrovsky report from another village brutalized by Russian soldiers. https://twitter.com/newshour/status/1512239303291768832?s=21&t=5YtI4cGwVpsE9ZWTngAikA These were from Tuva, it seems. “This case is labeled "Military Political Preparedness." […] Apparently, the troops that occupied this village came from a Buddhist region. There is a book here from the Dalai Lama. There's Tuvan magazine.”  E: YouTube link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IYXoys-70Q Rinkles fucked around with this message at 07:35 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 07:25
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Using colonial troops to force people to sing your anthem at gunpoint. A person with an arrangement of flags and hammersickle in twitter handle: this owns actually.
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Apr 8, 2022 07:42
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Antigravitas posted:You remember wrong. hth. I don’t remember anything wrong, hth. Neither the European Parliament nor the Council has the power to legislate anything. Hth. While I think it’s actually great that we have some Germansplainers around here, you could at least get your facts right. Hth. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 8, 2022 07:53
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Calling a council decision "non-binding" is still completely wrong. A council decision represents the agreed decision of national governments. That means it will be done and will take effect once published. e: Now here's something interesting. I work for a university and just received an email regarding cooperation with Russia. It sets out the following rules: a) Nobody is allowed travel to Russia even for running research projects. b )"Individual academic contact with Russian colleagues, including the use and support of scholarships and programmes that enable at-risk Russian academics to come [to the university], is encouraged" Antigravitas fucked around with this message at 08:22 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 08:04
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Antigravitas posted:Calling a council decision "non-binding" is still completely wrong. A council decision represents the agreed decision of national governments. That means it will be done and will take effect once published. If you bother to read the Wikipedia entries on the Council of Europe and the European Council (which are not the same, intelligently  ), then you'll see that they don't have legislative powers.I'd really love to believe that Germany and other countries will enact this, and there's a good chance they will, but I'll believe when I see it. If you insist that "the council" as it's called in the tweet, does have legislative powers, then I urge you to work on changing the Wikipedia article. (I didn't have the time and inclination to somehow find out which council the tweet referred to, since it doesn't make a difference regarding their powers to create and enact national legislation.)
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Apr 8, 2022 08:22
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:I don’t remember anything wrong, hth. The European Council (and parliament) absolutely have the power to legislate on a European level, they just don't have the power to introduce new legislation themselves, which rests solely with the European Comission. You can read all about the EU legislative process here https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/decision-making/ordinary-legislative-procedure/ As for this particular instance, the legislation was proposed by the Comission on the 5th and agreed in the EU's Committee of Permanent Representatives (coreper) yesterday, which means the formal adaption by the actual European Council is a formality.
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Apr 8, 2022 08:25
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cr0y posted:What caliber of GPU could a bunch of office PCs seriously have? Like these things aren't kitted out with RTX 3080s Those arenuclear office PCs. They probably need Titans to simulate neutrons whatever. Also I can see an empty CPU socket in it so those are also gone but that's not surprising since Intel is pulling out of russia apparently. mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 08:43 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 08:40
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What are is the Russian opposition and the malcontents, or whatever is left of them, saying about the sanctions? Do they support them? While I am glad at least something is being done, I still feel kind of awkward for the innocent common folk.
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Apr 8, 2022 08:44
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Mikojan posted:What are is the Russian opposition and the malcontents, or whatever is left of them, saying about the sanctions? Do they support them? According to polls, the war is supported by 81% of Russians. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/world/europe/russia-putin-support-ukraine.html
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Apr 8, 2022 08:50
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GaussianCopula posted:According to polls, the war is supported by 81% of Russians. Polls like that are useless. Russia is a dictatorship that reacts harshly to dissent, so people are likely to respond with that they support the war if asked.
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Apr 8, 2022 08:52
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fuctifino posted:Polls like that are useless. Russia is a dictatorship that reacts harshly to dissent, so people are likely to respond with that they support the war if asked. Remember that the Iraq war had >70% support too and that was with some flimsy WDM evidence from halfway around the world. Putin is telling everyone that they are being genocided by their neighbor 24/7.
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Apr 8, 2022 09:09
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Tomn posted:Say, out of curiosity, does anybody here know anything about trains? The Council is made up of the heads of governments. Even if Hungary or whomever vetoes it as a European matter, there’s nothing to stop the rest of them going ahead as individual nations if they want.
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Apr 8, 2022 09:10
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:I think I remember this is non-binding. The tweet posted is about oil ban discussion.
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Apr 8, 2022 09:17
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fuctifino posted:Polls like that are useless. Russia is a dictatorship that reacts harshly to dissent, so people are likely to respond with that they support the war if asked. There are a bunch of ways to try and gauge real support, even in dictatorships. The Afghanistan war was popular with like 90%+ of Americans, and even the Iraq war had about 70% popularity at its outset. It seems implausible that there's not a huge majority of Russians in favor of kicking Nazi rear end v2.0 and liberate the thankful subjects.
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Apr 8, 2022 09:18
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:If you bother to read the Wikipedia entries on the Council of Europe and the European Council (which are not the same, intelligently Don't forget the Council of European Union! I think there should be a Union of European Councils, for that matter, to coordinate all the different councils. e: Sovyetskii Soyuz means Union of Councils, we can just revitalise that 
Nenonen fucked around with this message at 09:26 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 09:21
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Anybody have a direct quote for this? “[Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto] added that NATO member countries have offered to help Finland with ensuring security during an application process and said they estimate it would take from four months to one year to approve the application.” That seems pretty big. From here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-clarify-next-steps-possible-nato-entry-within-weeks-foreign-minister-2022-04-07/
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Apr 8, 2022 09:28
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WW2 was incredibly popular with Germans until the invasion of Russia started going badly. e: but bluntly you have to take the polling with all of the context caveats, which means that the only thing you can say with real confidence is that it demonstrates that the mood in Russia is clearly to let the regime play this one out and that there isn't going to be any sort of mass unrest (at least not unless something significant changes).
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Apr 8, 2022 09:30
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Alchenar posted:WW2 was incredibly popular with Germans until the invasion of Russia started going badly. Wars where you're winning tend to be more popular than wars where you're losing.
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Apr 8, 2022 09:32
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iv46vi posted:I heard a talk recently that claimed the polling in Russia is done by government affiliated service and plagued by low response rate even in normal times. Since the war started the response refusal rate is hovering in the high 97 percent and the small percentage of people who are willing to partake view it primarily as a loyalty test. It’s not surprising that majority of this self selecting group would indeed support the government. There’s more than one pollster operating in Russia, and people interpreting the results normally are a bit smarter than what you suggest, as far as professional statisticians go anyways. KillHour posted:That is absolutely staged. Even the grass is the same. Those pictures were taken like 5 minutes apart. Wait, what? For real?
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Apr 8, 2022 09:32
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Rinkles posted:Anybody have a direct quote for this? Partial, loose translation by me: quote:Foreign minister Pekka Haavisto (Greens) says that, during the NATO foreign ministers meeting, multiple NATO-countries have asked about what type of security assistance Finland would need during a NATO application process.
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Apr 8, 2022 09:40
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Wait, what? For real? Russian infrastructure is so stable pot holes remain identical for 27 years, down to individual pieces of gravel.
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Apr 8, 2022 09:47
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Frosty Mossman posted:This is from yesterday: https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000008725438.html Thanks.
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Apr 8, 2022 09:49
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GaussianCopula posted:According to polls, the war is supported by 81% of Russians. I'm not really interested in support for the war. I want to know if those 19% that don't support it think sanctions are the best way forward or if the opposition has an alternative suggestion.
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Apr 8, 2022 09:51
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Chalks posted:Russian infrastructure is so stable pot holes remain identical for 27 years, down to individual pieces of gravel.
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Apr 8, 2022 09:54
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https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1512303926032359428
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Apr 8, 2022 09:55
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Mikojan posted:I'm not really interested in support for the war. I want to know if those 19% that don't support it think sanctions are the best way forward or if the opposition has an alternative suggestion. Opposition doesn't have any significant political weight so their opinion is irrelevant. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1512350304523722755?t=YXiYhjb7qWXKqDEm84mN2w&s=19 Sick fucks
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Apr 8, 2022 09:55
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fatherboxx posted:Opposition doesn't have any significant political weight so their opinion is irrelevant. It's all to protect them from the Pedophile Homonazis! In seriousness, JFC what a bunch of savages the russian army is...
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Apr 8, 2022 10:01
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There seems to have been missile strike on Kramatorsk railway station when civilians were evacuating from Donbas region. +30 dead and +100 wounded. Link is safe and without pictures. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-russian-rockets-hit-railway-station-east-ukraine-used-by-evacuees-rail-2022-04-08/
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Apr 8, 2022 10:05
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https://twitter.com/benhnoble/status/1512177754694893574 A recent something on the subject of polling.
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Apr 8, 2022 10:05
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Russian war correspondent (and very literal neonazi who was an accomplice to murder of antifascist activist and a lawyer) Dmitry Steshin was quick to claim that the missile strike was a hit on a group of soldiers but has edited his post on telegram https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1512350614910558212?t=hBwwZO8m0ZsUEy5H-MlCww&s=19 (  in twitter thread)Russian accounts now claim that it is a false flag since Russia doesnt use Tochka missiles (a lie) fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 10:11 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 10:08
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Rinkles posted:https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-clarify-next-steps-possible-nato-entry-within-weeks-foreign-minister-2022-04-07/ Re: Finland and Nato in general, nothing is yet confirmed at the moment, but the timeline according to rumours is "early May" for an actual decision by govt. The official timeline is like next week or two for some government body to make some preliminary recommendation for starting parliamentary talks etc. The "early May" rumour seems credible enough to me. Currently both a majority of the public (according to polls) and a majority of all members of parliament are in favour of NATO membership. The likely thing is that parliament simply decides to apply for membership, given the high levels of public support
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Apr 8, 2022 10:09
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Charliegrs posted:So say Europe cut off all Russian gas and oil tomorrow. What would the affect be? Would everyone freeze to death? Do they not have any alternatives? The EU already sources the majority of its fossil fuel supplies from domestic or Middle Eastern oil and gas fields. Switching over entirely is certainly possible, it would just be a reversal of policy for many countries who’ve become very comfortable importing as much oil, gas, coal, and timber as they can. As for what the immediate effect would be, the answer is nothing would happen because ever since the war started they been importing gas as fast as possible to fill their storage tanks, which are somewhere around a six month supply. Beyond that period, there would need to actually be policy changes, alternative imports, and a reduction in the use of cheap gas for power generation. Germany in particular has estimated that halting imports and doing nothing else would decrease the GDP by 3-5%, but economists point out that if the government actually invested in policy solutions then the decrease would be more like .5%. https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2022/apr/08/eu-banning-russia-coal-imports/
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Apr 8, 2022 10:12
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iv46vi posted:I heard a talk recently that claimed the polling in Russia is done by government affiliated service and plagued by low response rate even in normal times. Since the war started the response refusal rate is hovering in the high 97 percent and the small percentage of people who are willing to partake view it primarily as a loyalty test. It’s not surprising that majority of this self selecting group would indeed support the government. Some of this is more concerning than other bits of it. A 3% response rate to; say, CATI modality polling is not especially low compared to other countries including OECD countries. The extent to which this actually causes bias in results depends on the extent to which the choice to not respond correlated with the questions being asked while also not correlating with measureable demographic titles that can be targeted for weighting. The effect of needing to excessively weight is that it causes a larger “design effect” (increased variance in results attributable only to weighting decisions). Russia is a modern enough country that basic census data will be reliable. So my guess is that a standard weight target file, which would include region, gender, age, SES, etc. will be fairly reliable. And if even this was a problem you would move to non probabilistic quota sampling which has some properties that mitigate issues with low response rates. The one thing I’d personally add to standard weight targets would probably be self-reported past vote choice. I am not sure if the conventional wisdom is that reported vote shares in Russia are fake or real. If they’re real, then self-reported past vote choice is going to go a long way to reducing non-response bias. On the flip side, many OECD polls are interested in voting, which from a Total Survey Error perspective means a lot of opportunities to gently caress the pooch on how you model propensity to vote. Since a poll of this nature would just aim to assess public sentiment, not voter turnout, there’s less of a source of error. I have not personally ever fielded a poll in Russia but a colleague has and there are — or rather, were as recently as a few years ago — independent and liberal public opinion outfits. I can’t speak to the reputation of any specific organization. And I would guess that the recent crackdown on independent media and snitching in academia has probably thinned the ranks. To me the bigger concern is that respondents are lying because they view polls as a threat of violence. This is both believable and a pretty hard problem to solve. If we think people are just lying about sensitive questions, we can use a variety of designs to try to estimate the effect of this. In addition to (I have discussed these earlier in the thread) randomized response designs and list experiments, I would like to see directional movement on proxy measures. So if you think people are being honest about whether they read Novaya Gazetta but lying about support for the war, then an increase in NG readers might suggest a decrease in support for the war. If people are lying about literally everything then all bets are off, of course. Of course these conclusions are all tentative; they’re evidence to support an argument, not an irrefutable fact. That being said, what is the question we’re trying to answer? If the question is whether support is exactly 78% or 82% or 85%, it’s unlikely any amount of bias mitigation is going to solve the problem. If the question is “do a large majority of Russians appear to support the war, conditional on the fact they have been propagandized to 24-7 and opposition voices have been arrested and silenced” then I think invoking the alleged unreliability of polling is unnecessary: this seems clearly true. We don’t have indicators of large scale public unrest (even in comparison to past controversies). We don’t have indicators of large scale elite defection. We don’t have indicators of any real bureaucratic resistance. Some of this you can attribute to increasing sophistication of the police state, but you have to believe the police state is getting more sophisticated at pre-empting public dissent, rather than just responding to it. Are they? I'm not sure, but again there seems to be a real absence of the kind of things we would expect if the war was deeply divisive. cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/benhnoble/status/1512177754694893574 The design used here is exactly how I would try to measure this question; and the sample recruitment method (self-selected recruitment) has exactly the biases they suggest. I'm surprised they didn't try to apply a standard national weight target to counteract the obvious biases. So I would take this less of an argument for absolute levels of support (which are likely to be higher, as they note) and more as an argument that there is probably some sensitivity concern. They find a sensitivity bias of 15%, and that's consistent with the literature. Blair, Coppock, and Moor (2020) -- disclaimer that I have worked with several of these people personally, though not on this paper -- meta-analyzes the mean sensitivity gap between direct questioning and list experiments for support for autocrats to be +14%, so, yeah, bang on. Man Plan Canal fucked around with this message at 10:28 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 10:14
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Russia straight up shelling fleeing civilians (again).code:code:ummel fucked around with this message at 10:49 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 10:27
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Edit: Sorry, this was just posted. I’m spacing out.
cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:31 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 10:29
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I see the sick fucks have hit the main train station used for evacuation from the East. I guess they can't warcrime properly if the civilians are gone.
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Apr 8, 2022 10:33
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Man Plan Canal posted:Some of this you can attribute to increasing sophistication of the police state, but you have to believe the police state is getting more sophisticated at pre-empting public dissent, rather than just responding to it. Are they? I'm not sure, but again there seems to be a real absence of the kind of things we would expect if the war was deeply divisive. In my opinion, Russia is not particularly sophisticated in pre-empting public dissent, in part since it’s a boomer state dealing with zoomer opposition. The stuff that is supposed to preempt the dissent is all those decorum laws with criminal responsibility for “discrediting the army” and so on - which simply stops working when 10 thousand people walk out in the streets and start throwing cobblestone, like they’ve done countless times for issues they care deeply about. As far as its transformation over the years goes, I think the main axis of evolution for the Russian police state is in the violence people qualifying for opposition leaders of any measure do face. Appreciate the polling effort posts, by the way. I don’t work in polling, but I do earn my bread with applied statistics. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:41 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 10:38
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I can believe those polling numbers. It's probably not entirely accurate due to social desirability bias, but large portion of Russian population has completely different perspective on war than us because their views are based on a completely different information (mostly state disinformation). And if someone manages to give them correct information (on civilian victims etc.), they are likely to simply reject it as fake news, there are stories from Ukrainians that contacted their Russian friends and they just didn't believe their friend in Ukraine is hiding in a shelter while the city is bombed and so on. Dwesa fucked around with this message at 11:03 on Apr 8, 2022 |
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Apr 8, 2022 10:56
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Those polling numbers shouldn't surprise anyone who lived in the western world circa 2003 and remembers WMDs, 'support our troops' or Freedom Fries. Us vs Them is stupidly easy to prey onto.
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