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If Putin is crazy enough to actually order an attack on Finland or Sweden it will 1000% not keep them from getting NATO membership.
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Apr 11, 2022 09:56
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Feliday Melody posted:As a Swedish home guardsmen. The war in Ukraine really ran home the reality of war with Russia to Sweden as a whole. It is a question that I have been thinking about, could more people from the areas north of Kyiv been evacuated before those areas were lost. As I remember the news, many thought the invasion would not happen up to until it did.
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Apr 11, 2022 09:59
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Mokotow posted:Absolutely stunning video out there today of a tank rolling up to a blockade and firing point blank at a group of 10 russian soldiers, because they mistook it for their own. I hate saying this, but you’ve got the sides wrong. It’s allegedly a Russian tank as the troops had blue armbands. Edit: Video is currently top of /r/CombatFootage, but I’m not clicking it.
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Apr 11, 2022 10:02
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dr_rat posted:Skeptical as well. Seems like could just be a carrot help us shoot down plans in the dark type lie from the brits in ww2. My life has been a lie.  Winks posted:Russian air forces are flying low, well within MANPAD and SHORAD ranges, against an enemy that spent 6 years preparing for short range AA engagements. Their helicopter tactics have been extremely questionable and we've seen multiple instances of their countermeasures failing to work on both helicopters and fixed wing. Drones like the Granat/Orlan/Eleron/etc are relatively easy pickings because they're going to be low, slow, and lack that survivability equipment. 3 drones, 1 fixed wing, and 4 helicopters on a day that Russia is moving large numbers of equipment that needs ISR/overwatch through potentially contested territory is a reasonable number. Fair enough, but the numbers especially early on were significantly ahead of available evidence. gay picnic defence posted:He would need to actually set foot in Ukraine first, I think he’s too busy posing for staged photos in front of petrol stations in Rostov for that. He’ll have to set foot in Ukraine now, to get another pair of €1200 Prada combat boots. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 11:03 on Apr 11, 2022 |
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Apr 11, 2022 10:04
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.Z. posted:I hate saying this, but you’ve got the sides wrong. It’s allegedly a Russian tank as the troops had blue armbands. Another claim is its a captured russian tank and thats how it got so close. Video is too washed out on my screen to see armbands so I guess fog of war and all that. Also, a „V” BTR parked next to the soldiers. Mokotow fucked around with this message at 10:11 on Apr 11, 2022 |
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Apr 11, 2022 10:07
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Youth Decay posted:A BTG is a couple hundred people so this is pretty big. Not sure if this is related to the aforementioned convoy, but there are photos. Bit further int he replies theres what appears to be some identification of the location https://twittercom/LeyawiinSiberia/status/1513408368249126913 Fairly deep in nominally Russian held areas. Edit : Deliberatly broke link to not show images from OP post CAT INTERCEPTOR fucked around with this message at 10:14 on Apr 11, 2022 |
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Apr 11, 2022 10:12
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.Z. posted:I hate saying this, but you’ve got the sides wrong. It’s allegedly a Russian tank as the troops had blue armbands. Yeah, unfortunately it might be the other way around (did not watch, and def. will not). Also apparently /r/CombatFootage is full of russian bots and/or pro russian dudes? Again, did not check this myself.
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Apr 11, 2022 10:12
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GABA ghoul posted:It's enough for Russia to just start some kind of conflict. It doesn't have to be big. They could launch missiles at Finnish bases or fire artillery over the border or occupy a bridge or something and suddenly a NATO membership would mean Brits and Italians immediately going to have to shoot at Russian soldiers or bombing air defense systems on Russian territory. Some NATO countries might chicken out and veto Finland. Eh, while this is possible it seems unlikely to me - there have been rumours that Finland has asked for specific security guarantees for the time between applying for NATO and actually formally being accepted, as well as rumours that "several" "big" NATO countries have basically said they'll provide such guarantees. For example, one rumour was about USA perhaps using Major Non-NATO Ally status or similar for this (article in Finnish; also, tabloid - so rumour) Nothing is official as of now but I think problems like this "one weird trick" are solvable if there is will to solve them
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Apr 11, 2022 10:15
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Bit further int he replies theres what appears to be some identification of the location That's the division the regiment is subordinated to. The actual regiment is deployed a bit further north with it's two BTGs supposedly on the front. We don't know which one of those was taken out, but it losing one of the BTGs that guards the front north of Mariupol can't be good for them. 
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Apr 11, 2022 10:19
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(I know this is not the NATO thread but it seems relevant to the topic, please just say if it doesn't) There's also the fact that NATO also really really wants Finland in, they're getting a lot more than just another plot of land to protect. A large and modern conventional army, trained and equipped to the teeth to fight Russians, right across the gulf from the Baltic states? That would ease a lot of headaches in NATO HQ.
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Apr 11, 2022 10:20
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Warsaw has taken over a building complex, nominally owned by Russia. The condo building was deserted for the past ~30 years and was a popular URBEX destination, but Russia would refuse to hand it over. Since the Ukrainian invasion, Warsaw has been securing and taking over russian real estate in the city. Poland transferred numerous real estate plots in the 70s to russia as part of a reciprocal trade deal. Russia never handed off plots in Moscow, and the court in the 90s decided that russia needs to pay real estate tax, which it hasn’t. Still, up to this year, Poland was reluctant to act on claiming the real estate, as some of it was actively used by the russian embassy. And, because its the russians, there has to be some hilarity. Russians managed to hire a third-grade “security” agency and bussed in 10 grandpas to blockade the main gate, but apparently they hightailed it out of there immediately once the cops arrived. https://twitter.com/MichaWojtcz/status/1513426295492915202?s=20&t=FH1_Ldg6EE6UqezYPO-eWA
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Apr 11, 2022 10:24
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Bit further int he replies theres what appears to be some identification of the location That would be a significant drive on Mariupol if true
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Apr 11, 2022 10:24
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.Z. posted:I hate saying this, but you’ve got the sides wrong. It’s allegedly a Russian tank as the troops had blue armbands. For those wondering, there's no gore. Still horrific obviously (it's a main gun shot at point blank range into a group), but the blast and dust obscure any details and then the filmer takes off
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Apr 11, 2022 10:26
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PerilPastry posted:If there's one good thing to come from this whole mess, it must be the strengthening of NATO unity and deterrence. Between their own attrition and the troops pouring into NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence (hell, all eastern Allies), even the most koolaid drinking Putinist can no longer seriously believe Russia would ever be able to force a fait accompli in the Baltics. He's a big, conservative dumbo and wants to believe that my tiny country holds any kind of diplomatic influence. The last time we were somewhat relevant was during the Kreisky era and that was in the 1960ies. Also it's a publicity stunt, cause he's under fire in the media atm. His wife had been drinking in the family apartment with her anti-terror bodyguards, supposedly it was one guy's birthday. Afterwards these 2 clowns had a minor car accident with 1.2‰ blood alcohol level and before that one of them fell down the stairs and had a light bruise. So now they are under scrutiny if the drinking had started while they were on duty etc...(yeah, I was also thinking of a certain House of Cards scene). Putin will make a useful idiot of Nehammer today, with the usual propaganda about the West crumbling and Austria being the first to grovel before Russia's feet.
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Apr 11, 2022 10:28
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.Z. posted:I hate saying this, but you’ve got the sides wrong. It’s allegedly a Russian tank as the troops had blue armbands. There are no arm bands visible, unless you have a much better version than the one I saw.
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Apr 11, 2022 10:36
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jaete posted:Nothing is official as of now but I think problems like this "one weird trick" are solvable if there is will to solve them Yeah, between their forces already bogged down and being depleted in Ukraine and the US likely to offer security guarantees, Finland probably isn't worth the headache to Russia, God willing. They've got enough on their plate imo. Last week Putin's spokesman also implied a softening of Russia's stance, suggesting that Finnish accession to NATO would not be an existential threat. He seemed more concerned with the balance of power and the need to "rebalance" such a move to secure credible Russian deterrence on their western flank. "He added that if Finland and Sweden joined NATO Russia would have to "make our Western flank more sophisticated in terms of ensuring our security". "Everything is about mutual deterring and should one side - and we consider NATO to be one side - be more powerful than the other, especially in terms of nuclear arms, then it will be considered a threat for the whole architecture of security and it will take us to take additional measures"" https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-putins-spokesman-denies-war-crimes-but-admits-significant-russian-losses-12584552 We discussed it earlier itt and these statements sure make it sound like they're much more liable to saber rattle their strategic forces in a show of deterrence and face saving than embark on a preemptive war with Finland. Hammerstein posted:He's a big, conservative dumbo and wants to believe that my tiny country holds any kind of diplomatic influence. The last time we were somewhat relevant was during the Kreisky era and that was in the 1960ies.
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Apr 11, 2022 10:56
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Mikojan posted:I’ve been reading about newfound fossil wealth around the Crimea and the donbas. Is this generally overblown? Some posters are saying the hypothetical occupation of these zones make for a meagre russian victory, but assuming it’s chock full of gas seems kinda big? It is overblown. Some people, for reasons such as them being Americans with bad enough education to only know of war in Iraq, or for them being Russia apologists trying to rationalise away the fascist war with genocidal tendencies, are trying to pretend that this war is about Ukrainian gas reserves. Let’s take a look at numbers https://www.eia.gov/international/d...=1609459200000& Russia has reserves of 1700 tcf, Ukraine has reserves of 40 tcf. Russia exports 9 tcf per year. The arguments about Russia going after an economic competitor here, or to enrich itself, are simply dumb. Youth Decay posted:A BTG is a couple hundred people so this is pretty big. Not sure if this is related to the aforementioned convoy, but there are photos. BTG is around 800 people. Mikojan posted:It is still a big loss for Ukraine still. While they can probably expect a lot of financial help post war, having gas to sell in the future seems like a very big deal. Losing the areas seems like a very bad thing. And I’m not convinced Russia won’t be able to profit of it when in the farther future fossil fuels dry up further across the globe. Sure, countries turn their back now but I have no faith in the western block keeping their backs turned 20 years down the line. They are a net importer of gas, with their domestic production lagging behind their self-consumption. Also whom they would be selling it to, when every gas exporter right next to Ukraine has more of it, has unread for selling it (which Ukraine does not have at all), and can sell it for less, while Europe will be at the same time decarbonising? It’s still sucks for them, but this is bizarre thing to get fixated on with everything else happening at the same time. Charlz Guybon posted:That's a significant victory. The Russians don't have any BTGs to spare. To be fair, ISW hasn’t backed up that assertion with any data.
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Apr 11, 2022 11:02
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You guys want a map of what territory the Russians currently hold, boy do I have something for you https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1513423794773413891
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Apr 11, 2022 11:04
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d64 posted:I don't know about that, to my knowledge Finland's defense against an invasion would very much involve defense in depth type of warfare. Trying to keep the fight at the border seems like a hopeless idea and would discard advantages the terrain and the distances give. Defence in depth is very much the doctrine. String them out, chew them up with ambushes and artillery followed by localized counter-attacks with heavy armour support. Fighting at the border would be unwise for many reasons. Russian artillery availability being one of them.
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Apr 11, 2022 11:04
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It is overblown. Wrecked armored vehicles and dozens of bodies isn't data?
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Apr 11, 2022 11:07
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Charlz Guybon posted:Wrecked armored vehicles and dozens of bodies isn't data? Is that supposed to support your claim that Russia has no BTGs left? The only entity saying that so far is ISW, and their latest update doesn’t support that assertion with respectable evidence.
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Apr 11, 2022 11:13
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Is that supposed to support your claim that Russia has no BTGs left? The only entity saying that so far is ISW, and their latest update doesn’t support that assertion with respectable evidence. ISW isn't saying that Russia has no BTGs - just that there are no or few *intact* BTGs. That's a major difference and covers the range from no BTGs to a subset of BTGs having minor damage. They do have a somewhat hyperbolic statement about Russia being forced to throw Batallions together in ad hoc formations, but that does align with what the information we have and can easily become a consequence when just a subset are depleted (as the initial deployments were weirdly haphazard, thus reinforcements and mergers will make this even worse). https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1513185057703436289
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Apr 11, 2022 11:17
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Is that supposed to support your claim that Russia has no BTGs left? The only entity saying that so far is ISW, and their latest update doesn’t support that assertion with respectable evidence. "Doesn't have any ... to spare" does not mean there are no ... left. It just means they are running low on them and can't afford to waste any.
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Apr 11, 2022 11:19
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Trump posted:You guys want a map of what territory the Russians currently hold, boy do I have something for you I mean surely those aren’t legit, right?
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Apr 11, 2022 11:31
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Poland is closing its roads for russian and belarusian truck - April 16th is a cut-off date for the ban to fully go in effect. The ban is aimed mostly at consumer goods - minerals, oil, pharma and food are exempt, as is any cargo going to Kaliningrad. Ongoing protests and blockades by activists on the Polish side if the border have led to significant delays on both aides of the crossing - around 72 hours
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Apr 11, 2022 11:33
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Charlz Guybon posted:"Doesn't have any ... to spare" does not mean there are no ... left. Running low on BTGs in Donetsk area, which is the destination of a large share of troops pulled from Kyiv? Either way, I still don’t see the basis for that claim. PederP posted:ISW isn't saying that Russia has no BTGs - just that there are no or few *intact* BTGs. That's a major difference and covers the range from no BTGs to a subset of BTGs having minor damage. They do have a somewhat hyperbolic statement about Russia being forced to throw Batallions together in ad hoc formations, but that does align with what the information we have and can easily become a consequence when just a subset are depleted (as the initial deployments were weirdly haphazard, thus reinforcements and mergers will make this even worse). I understand what they’re saying - I want to highlight that their data for the claim in the last report seems to be “Ukrainian government said so on Facebook”. https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1513161711116763136
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Apr 11, 2022 11:33
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PederP posted:ISW isn't saying that Russia has no BTGs - just that there are no or few *intact* BTGs. That's a major difference and covers the range from no BTGs to a subset of BTGs having minor damage. They do have a somewhat hyperbolic statement about Russia being forced to throw Batallions together in ad hoc formations, but that does align with what the information we have and can easily become a consequence when just a subset are depleted (as the initial deployments were weirdly haphazard, thus reinforcements and mergers will make this even worse). From reading the full article the ad hoc deployments aren't due to losses but rather because their original forces where ad hoc. They picked parts of regiments from all over, probably because everyone wanted in on the 3 day invasion they imagined. Now it comes to needing reinforcements, none of their remaining forces are intact so they have no choice but to continue to take bits from all over to make up for the parts that were removed for the initial attack.
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Apr 11, 2022 11:38
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PederP posted:ISW isn't saying that Russia has no BTGs - just that there are no or few *intact* BTGs. That's a major difference and covers the range from no BTGs to a subset of BTGs having minor damage. They do have a somewhat hyperbolic statement about Russia being forced to throw Batallions together in ad hoc formations, but that does align with what the information we have and can easily become a consequence when just a subset are depleted (as the initial deployments were weirdly haphazard, thus reinforcements and mergers will make this even worse).
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Apr 11, 2022 11:38
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ShadowHawk posted:The claim was that there are no intact regiments, not no intact BTGs. A regiment is a much larger grouping of soldiers. Ah yes, true, brigades/regiments. Well my point was more to say that even ISW isn't claiming Russian units are all wrecked - 'intact' to me means 100%. 90 or 95% isn't intact, but such units may perform just fine on the battlefield. Hence, ISW's statement (in addition to being more about composition/deployment than actual depletion) shouldn't be taken as a particularly extreme claim. They also make a good point that many analysts confuse journalists/public when they talk about percentages of combat capability - as these percentages do not refer to raw 'combat power', and can depending on circumstances be off in either direction when looking at the ability to maneuver and conduct offensive operations. On a tangent, modern 'regiments' confuse the heck out of me - different countries using the term with different meanings, countries (especially small European ones) sometimes having what looks almost like a kind of matrix organization between regiments and batallions/brigades. For example the Danish Army has: 9 Regiments (4-5 of which are support regiments) 2 Brigades 1 Armor Batallion (partially attached to the NATO Batallion afaik) 1 Recon Batallion (inactive currently afaik) 1 Mechanized Infantry Batallion (deployed to the Baltic area under NATO) a number of training and support batallions The Regiments seem to just be weird organizational things not relevant to actual combat formations. The Brigades also seem to be there mostly to separate training and operational organizations. 9 Regiments and 2 Brigades with only 1-2 operational Batallions between them as a result seems absurd to me. Maybe I just don't get modern military organization. Could the Russian ad hoc weirdness be a symptom of a similarly confused organization without a real hierarchy? It just seems weird to have these near-empty orgs all over the place with actual combat formations combining pieces from all these. PederP fucked around with this message at 11:55 on Apr 11, 2022 |
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Apr 11, 2022 11:52
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PederP posted:Ah yes, true, brigades/regiments. Well my point was more to say that even ISW isn't claiming Russian units are all wrecked - 'intact' to me means 100%. 90 or 95% isn't intact, but such units may perform just fine on the battlefield. Hence, ISW's statement (in addition to being more about composition/deployment than actual depletion) shouldn't be taken as a particularly extreme claim. They also make a good point that many analysts confuse journalists/public when they talk about percentages of combat capability - as these percentages do not refer to raw 'combat power', and can depending on circumstances be off in either direction when looking at the ability to maneuver and conduct offensive operations. If I'm understanding it correctly, even if Russia had taken zero losses, they would still have no intact regiments to deploy due to the nature of their initial formations: quote:The Russian armed forces likely have few or no full-strength units in reserve to deploy to fight in Ukraine because of a flawed mobilization scheme that cannot be fixed in the course of a short war. The Russians did not deploy full regiments and brigades to invade Ukraine—with few exceptions as we have previously noted. They instead drew individual battalions from many different regiments and brigades across their entire force. We have identified elements of almost every single brigade or regiment in the Russian Army, Airborne Troops, and Naval Infantry involved in fighting in Ukraine already. The decision to form composite organizations drawn from individual battalions thrown together into ad hoc formations degraded the performance of those units, as we have discussed in earlier reports.[7] It has also committed the Russian military to replicating that mistake for the duration of this conflict, because there are likely few or no intact regiments or brigades remaining in the Russian Army, Airborne Forces, or Naval Infantry. The Russians have no choice but to continue throwing individual battalions together into ad hoc formations until they have rebuilt entire regiments and brigades, a process that will likely take years. I'm sure this is due to internal politics, every commander wanted his troops represented when they crushed Ukraine and you don't need to take unit composition seriously when the enemy is just going to roll over. Chalks fucked around with this message at 11:59 on Apr 11, 2022 |
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Apr 11, 2022 11:56
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mobby_6kl posted:Slovakia apparently says the destruction of their S300 has been greatly exaggerated. Those videos are all on Reddit's CombatFootage. There, it says a "Allegedly a Russian tank firing into a group of Ukrainian soldiers at close range after Ukrainians mistook it for one of their own", fwiw. Oops, sniped by.. 2 hours. That'll teach me to leave the window open for hours without refreshing. Saladman fucked around with this message at 12:09 on Apr 11, 2022 |
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Apr 11, 2022 12:05
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https://www.onet.pl/styl-zycia/onetkobieta/rosjanka-wyrzucona-z-warszawskiego-hotelu-wideo-obieglo-siec/2tj45bd,2b83378a Russian lady gets kicked out of Hilton in Warsaw. It’s a strange story - apparently she stayed there for 10 days and received support from the staff in getting in touch with the russian consulate (why consulate? There’s an embassy in Warsaw) but then started spewing false claims about Ukrainians bombing Kharkiv. In the video she’s shown being escorted out by a security guard, and being recorded by a russian-speaking staff member, getting into a verbal altercation.
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Apr 11, 2022 12:09
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PederP posted:On a tangent, modern 'regiments' confuse the heck out of me - different countries using the term with different meanings, countries (especially small European ones) sometimes having what looks almost like a kind of matrix organization between regiments and batallions/brigades. For example the Danish Army has: Russian formations are straightforward: 1 squad ~3-6 squads form a unit ~3-6 units form a company ~3-4 companies (and various support units) form a battalion ~2-6 battalions form a regiment This is where standardised troops formations end, broadly speaking. After that, organisational politics take place, and so you’ll have ~2-4 regiments or battalions forming a brigade ~2-4 regiments with support units forming a division And combined armies being a mix of everything mentioned above. In general though Russia is moving a way from divisions and corps, and is trying to standardise around brigades, with BTGs then being produced 2-3 per brigade.
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Apr 11, 2022 12:29
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Chalks posted:I'm sure this is due to internal politics, every commander wanted his troops represented when they crushed Ukraine and you don't need to take unit composition seriously when the enemy is just going to roll over.
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Apr 11, 2022 12:30
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 Last warning to people talking about videos without links. OP has been updated with a rule over that days ago, and I’ll probate everyone doing that going forward. “It’s on the top of the subreddit” is useless loving garbage for someone catching up with the thread even a day later.
cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 12:54 on Apr 11, 2022 |
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Apr 11, 2022 12:33
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d64 posted:I thought this was how they do it, most units have three battalions and they pulled in two for the war, the remaining one continuing to train conscripts and being a presence on the borders, etc, what they normally do. I understood this was by design. The article implies that this specific situation isn't normal - Russia attacking with 25% of their army shouldn't involved troops from every battalion they have. I am entirely basing this on that one article though, my main point is that the tweet about them having no intact regiments is nowhere near as dramatic as it sounds. It's just an artifact of their initial deployment that may affect the cohesion of their forces.
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Apr 11, 2022 12:46
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
Here's the video of the tank firing at very close range into a group of soldiers. Obviously  , though it doesn't show any gore:https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoot...web2x&context=3 Just a bizarre scenario all round, regardless of which side is which.
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Apr 11, 2022 12:48
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Hungary confirmed that the way they will pay for Russian gas in Russian rubles involves... paying the money in Euros to Gazprom Bank.  https://telex.hu/gazdasag/2022/04/11/szijjarto-unios-kulugyminiszter-rubel-euro-kifizetes-orosz-gazert-ceenergy-gazprom
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Apr 11, 2022 13:06
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Trump posted:You guys want a map of what territory the Russians currently hold, boy do I have something for you He needs to get his Sharpie out.
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Apr 11, 2022 13:07
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Kadyrov insulted that this map is not printed on silk and embossed with gold
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