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gay picnic defence posted:That’s the issue they face and Ukraine has signalled they have no intention of ceding any of that territory which to my mind implies they’ll just keep grinding away until Russia can no longer support troops in the field if that’s what it’s going to take. The question for Russia is that if they don’t think they can eke out some sort of military victory here then what are they actually doing? Do they keep tipping shittier and shittier troops and equipment into the meat grinder for a few months while any illusions about the strength of their military are torn down and their economy is suffering more and more permanent damage? There’s obviously someone in the hierarchy who understands the military reality on the ground because they did successfully pull out of the northern areas once it became very clear their goals there could not be achieved. I think the other factor here is that right now Russia is lobbing what have to be near the last of its precision cruise missiles at random targets in Kyiv as obvious revenge terror bombing - if you really are focussing on gathering all of your combat power for a push in the Donbas then why are you burning a cruise missile to gently caress up that guy's car tyre shop? The answer could be 'Russians are bad at this' but it also could point to a military that isn't really convinced about what it should be doing next.
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Apr 18, 2022 12:26
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a podcast for cats posted:I remember following and unfollowing this guy on Twitter a couple years back. He seemed to have a bit of streamer kind of brainworms going on at the time and I doubt it has became better. Never got around to listening to the podcast though, maybe I'm wrong. I listened to the Dan Carlin episode of the podcast and had to abort halfway through because he came off as a super self-important person, who seemed to think he is the only person that "knows" how Russia/Putin tick and what's going on.
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Apr 18, 2022 12:28
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GaussianCopula posted:I listened to the Dan Carlin episode of the podcast and had to abort halfway through because he came off as a super self-important person, who seemed to think he is the only person that "knows" how Russia/Putin tick and what's going on. Carlin is ok when it comes to his historical podcasts. A bit overly dramatic but entertaining. That shtick just doesn't transfer over well to his casts about actual events.
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Apr 18, 2022 12:47
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gay picnic defence posted:That’s the issue they face and Ukraine has signalled they have no intention of ceding any of that territory which to my mind implies they’ll just keep grinding away until Russia can no longer support troops in the field if that’s what it’s going to take. The question for Russia is that if they don’t think they can eke out some sort of military victory here then what are they actually doing? Do they keep tipping shittier and shittier troops and equipment into the meat grinder for a few months while any illusions about the strength of their military are torn down and their economy is suffering more and more permanent damage? There’s obviously someone in the hierarchy who understands the military reality on the ground because they did successfully pull out of the northern areas once it became very clear their goals there could not be achieved. A slow, grinding total war fought primarily by volksstrurm recruits with no ability to perform strategic attacks to regain territory the Russians do not choose to give up, sounds like a brilliant way to turn hundreds of thousands of your civilians into sausage, with no prospect of settling on a peace that isn't identical to what the Russians are already offering. If you think that THEE Ukraine has any chance of actually meatgrinding the Russians into retreat, then I'd like to know why? The Russians in and around Kiev got smacked around something savage, but they also retreated in good order despite the growing danger of encirclement, and it doesn't seem like they're quitting the Donbass campaign. The Ukrainians couldn't hold Mariupol, and that city was fortified for years in preparation for the attack. And my impression was that they were holding back in Mariupol, despite what you might think of the vicious Russian, Mariupol didnt end up looking like Mosul. It could've been a whole lot worse, and if the Russians feel like they're not being negotiated with, they're going to start turning cities into graveyards as they move beyond Donbass into areas with real, entrenched and motivated, Ukrainian volkssturm, dug in majority Ukrainian cities further west. I don't really see any way for Ukrainians to win this, the best they can hope for is a stalemate at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives.
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Apr 18, 2022 12:50
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Alchenar posted:I think the other factor here is that right now Russia is lobbing what have to be near the last of its precision cruise missiles at random targets in Kyiv as obvious revenge terror bombing - if you really are focussing on gathering all of your combat power for a push in the Donbas then why are you burning a cruise missile to gently caress up that guy's car tyre shop? The answer could be 'Russians are bad at this' but it also could point to a military that isn't really convinced about what it should be doing next. Yes, this is my impression as well. The military getting vague orders (e.g. "Putin wants a big push", "Putin wants us to hit their defense industry and western supply lines") that compete for the same resources and/or don't translate well into a much more complex reality. Standard fascist despot modus operandi is also to always delegate risk assessment and risk profile selection - but to retroactively punish failure, regardless of whether it was due to caution or recklessness. There might be a single general in charge now - but that won't change that each general in the next layer are extremely aware they may be blamed if objectives aren't met. Not to mention that the chain of command is not without technical friction - orders may be delayed or not get through. Which leaves BTG commanders to improvise - and the BTGs while designed to be able to operate with initiative and independence, have shown no such ability in this war. They don't coordinate well and they are fragile when acting alone. Ukrainian and allied intelligence being able to listen in on a lot of the communication is also likely to frustrate any attempts at seizing initiative. Which leaves massed and clumsy maneuvers - and sporadic uncoordinated strikes/maneuvers ("I better do something today I can report up the chain, so let's lob a missile at something we can claim is a military repair shop"). I am increasingly convinced the Russian command structure is fundamentally unable to execute operations of the required scale and complexity to seize Donbas. They might be able to somehow attrition the Ukrainians into being vulnerable to massed attacks (although I doubt it), but the pincer maneuver everyone has been talking about for I don't know how long? I'll believe it when I see it. And I think the commanders on the ground are trying their best to avoid having to be part of anything risky.
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Apr 18, 2022 12:51
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FizFashizzle posted:Chris coons becomes the first dem senator to openly suggest toying with world war 3 Hardly the first: Isn't this just the usual suspects pivoting from the NFZ to "boots on the ground"? But really, who is this poo poo for? Biden's position aside, even the Ukrainian foreign secretary is on record as saying “I think the deal that Ukraine is offering is fair. You give us weapons, we sacrifice our lives, and the war is contained in Ukraine” Is this just cheap heat to raise Coons' own media profile, knowing full well it's never going to happen? Or is there something specific to Coons to explain this performance? PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 13:00 on Apr 18, 2022 |
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Apr 18, 2022 12:52
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Mussolini kept the trains running on time vibes from this The point wasn't to glorify fascists but to say that Putin won't even build ugly poo poo like Mussolini did. The X-man cometh fucked around with this message at 12:56 on Apr 18, 2022 |
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Apr 18, 2022 12:54
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lollontee posted:despite what you might think of the vicious Russian… Tell me, what do you think of the vicious Russian?
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Apr 18, 2022 12:57
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e: quote isn't edit
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Apr 18, 2022 12:58
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Speaking of "soft power": https://twitter.com/derJamesJackson/status/1515959056632102912 (More stuff in the thread) Curious if our German posters could comment on how this is being received over there (if at all)?
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Apr 18, 2022 12:59
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Tiny Timbs posted:Tell me, what do you think of the vicious Russian? Im sure you can check my rapsheet for all my posts in DnD as of late.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:00
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lollontee posted:A slow, grinding total war fought primarily by volksstrurm recruits with no ability to perform strategic attacks to regain territory the Russians do not choose to give up, sounds like a brilliant way to turn hundreds of thousands of your civilians into sausage, with no prospect of settling on a peace that isn't identical to what the Russians are already offering. If you think that THEE Ukraine has any chance of actually meatgrinding the Russians into retreat, then I'd like to know why? Oh god this idiot is back Get out moron (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 18, 2022 13:02
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"I don't see any way Ukraine could win this" I say, gesturing at the Russian retreat from Kyiv and their continuing failure to secure Mariupol, eyes squeezed closed as hard as I can.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:05
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lollontee posted:A slow, grinding total war fought primarily by volksstrurm recruits with no ability to perform strategic attacks to regain territory the Russians do not choose to give up, sounds like a brilliant way to turn hundreds of thousands of your civilians into sausage, with no prospect of settling on a peace that isn't identical to what the Russians are already offering. If you think that THEE Ukraine has any chance of actually meatgrinding the Russians into retreat, then I'd like to know why? I see this being thrown around by "experts" that Mariupol was fortified. Exactly how?
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Apr 18, 2022 13:07
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A stalemate that lasts until the sanctions completely collapse the Russian economy is probably all Ukraine needs and is well within their ability
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Apr 18, 2022 13:08
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Tiny Timbs posted:Tell me, what do you think of the vicious Russian? That they are not vicious enough. Charlotte Hornets posted:I see this being thrown around by "experts" that Mariupol was fortified. Exactly how? It's the next stage of copium dependency. Russia is forced to withdraw from most of their frontlines under continued attacks, completely collapses at three of their five strategic goals, only manages to get close to capturing one of them after two months, and is only vaguely scrambling to launch an attack on the last one as of now, and this shows that Ukraine is akshyually weak. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 13:13 on Apr 18, 2022 |
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Apr 18, 2022 13:10
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Even the western media is admitting Mariupol is on the verge of Russian capture. Seems like it is imminent to be secured. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-mariupol-set-to-fall-as-last-known-pocket-of-resistance-holds-out-in-steel-plant-12592811
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Apr 18, 2022 13:10
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Two months into invading a country the size of Ukraine and you are measuring your advances in terms of square yards per day. Everything is totally going to plan!
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Apr 18, 2022 13:15
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Marenghi posted:Even the western media is admitting Mariupol is on the verge of Russian capture. Seems like it is imminent to be secured. You'll be able to tell it's close to falling when Russia stops begging the defenders to surrender. We well know they don't do this for humanitarian reasons. The steel plant is 11 square km and is going to be an absolute nightmare to attack. There's a good chance of it falling in the next week or two, but the price to Russia will be huge, and the state of their eastern offensive by that time is very questionable. The first stage of their eastern offensive is likely a pincer movement from Izyum and Mariupol, which will be difficult if one of the pincers can't move.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:15
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Congratulations to Russia on securing a pile of rubble alongside the enmity of all the Russian speakers there. Hope the land corridor was worth it.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:15
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OddObserver posted:Speaking of "soft power": The SPD is currently engaged in a smear campaign against the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany. https://twitter.com/oezoguz/status/1515954802030747648 Other than that it's basically only the CDU who is attacking the SPD over it with the Greens and FDP being silent, because power is more important than morals. A regular defense is that it's all just "Springer Presse". Keep in mind that Germany is still paying for the office (staff) of Gazprom lobbyist and former SPD chancellor Gerhard Schröder. GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 13:18 on Apr 18, 2022 |
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Apr 18, 2022 13:16
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Marenghi posted:Even the western media is admitting Mariupol is on the verge of Russian capture. Seems like it is imminent to be secured. Considering the location of Mariupol and the length of time it has been isolated and under assault, capture being imminent isn't particularly impressive. It took an atrocious, costly and callous assault to get to this point. This is not something Russia will be able to replicate. This is a city where Russia resorted to genocide. Mariupol does not strengthen the narrative that Russia will inevitably win. On the contrary. Also, Ukrainian units are operating less than 2 hours away from the city - even if it falls, will Russia be able to hold it?
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Apr 18, 2022 13:16
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Marenghi posted:Even the western media is admitting Mariupol is on the verge of Russian capture. Seems like it is imminent to be secured. Undoubtedly, yes. However they were offering surrender terms to the defenders and boasting about imminent capture what, three, four weeks ago? Since then they've completely destroyed any value the city might have had for the captors, and obviously lost a month of time, not to mention additional loss of time due to material and personnel / fatigue depletion. It is clearly a matter of time (days?) before Mariupol falls, but it is by no means a Russian success tale.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:17
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Charlotte Hornets posted:I see this being thrown around by "experts" that Mariupol was fortified. Exactly how? well i'm going to have to go digging through my link archives tomorrow when i get home tomorrow (assuming i do not cop a week long probe for posting in the thread) to find pictures for you, but yeah Mariupol was the linchpin of Avoz nazis, and they built ammo caches and (alledgedly in their own propaganda) tunnel network. Regardless, it was the center of the most spirited fighters the Ukrainians had, and it still fell. Zedsdeadbaby posted:A stalemate that lasts until the sanctions completely collapse the Russian economy is probably all Ukraine needs and is well within their ability I think you're overestimating the ability of the West to collapse economies nowadays. Russians got China to turn to as a market, and over time in a stalemate, this economic integration is going to only grow. It'll be a hard going for the next couple of years as the Russian economy readjusts to serve a completely different market, but they can do it. US hasn't been able to bring down Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, or others in recent years, through economic sanctions, I doubt they can do so going forwards as this new Cold War progresses and increasingly divides the world into two, uncooperating economic spheres.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:19
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:Congratulations to Russia on securing a pile of rubble alongside the enmity of all the Russian speakers there. Hope the land corridor was worth it. why do you figure the locals would hate the people liberating them from a bunch of murderous nazis, who themselves admit that the locals loving hate them? https://twitter.com/wyattreed13/status/1515953127085776898
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Apr 18, 2022 13:24
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lollontee posted:if the Russians feel like they're not being negotiated with, they're going to start turning cities into graveyards RUSSIANS (1985). They will make cemetaries their cathedrals, and the cities will be your tombs.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:25
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lollontee posted:why do you figure the locals would hate the people liberating them from a bunch of murderous nazis, who themselves admit that the locals loving hate them? Twitter has this nice feature where it displays "Russia state-affiliated media" which is secret code for "a pile of steaming bullshit which is most probably the opposite of the truth".
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Apr 18, 2022 13:26
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lollontee posted:why do you figure the locals would hate the people liberating them from a bunch of murderous nazis, who themselves admit that the locals loving hate them? Just straight up posting Russian propaganda. Looking forward to finding out more about how the special military operation is going according to plan.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:28
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lollontee posted:why do you figure the locals would hate the people liberating them from a bunch of murderous nazis, who themselves admit that the locals loving hate them? https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1514215206888652801?s=20&t=w79B-Yw1ELR-hHpW7GkhPA incidentally, gently caress Azov but that's a POW being trotted out for propaganda purposes and worth precisely jack poo poo
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Apr 18, 2022 13:29
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Last time he was posting a russian conspiracy website with articles on the judeo-bolshevik and covid conspiracies Please do not engage except to tell him to gently caress off
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Apr 18, 2022 13:30
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lollontee posted:why do you figure the locals would hate the people liberating them from a bunch of murderous nazis, who themselves admit that the locals loving hate them? That tweet is apparently Russian state media Also historically populations haven't been well disposed to the people reducing their city to rubble, looting the remnants while shooting/raping the civilian population How can you apparently figure that people will be welcoming the Russians as 'liberators'
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Apr 18, 2022 13:31
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PerilPastry posted:love too be liberated well, what is your source for the people of Mariupol hating the Russians then?
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Apr 18, 2022 13:31
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lollontee posted:well, what is your source for the people of Mariupol hating the Russians then? The picture in that tweet seems pretty convincing tbh
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Apr 18, 2022 13:32
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lollontee posted:well i'm going to have to go digging through my link archives tomorrow when i get home tomorrow (assuming i do not cop a week long probe for posting in the thread) to find pictures for you, but yeah Mariupol was the linchpin of Avoz nazis, and they built ammo caches and (alledgedly in their own propaganda) tunnel network. Regardless, it was the center of the most spirited fighters the Ukrainians had, and it still fell. There are military units stationed in Mariupol so of course there are ammo caches just like in every other Ukrainian city. The steel plant has tunnels but I find it quite doubtful that Ukrainian soldiers have been tunneling throughout the city. Why do you think the most spirited fighters are in Mariupol?
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Apr 18, 2022 13:32
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The Russians didn't have the ability to wage full "Modern system" war at the beginning of march and they really, really don't have it now. The best they can manage is a static defense of the territory they already occupy. Ukraine has spent two months loving them up at every turn and I don't see why they shouldn't keep doing that, provided the rest of the world can keep their army supplied. I wouldn't be surprised to see mass surrenders/routs on the Russian side.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:33
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Alctel posted:That tweet is apparently Russian state media Yeah, but sometimes they accept that is necessary to kill the nazis, such as in Netherlands during operation market garden. They might not have liked the fact, but that doesnt mean they hated the Allied troops marching through their devastated cities.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:34
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They appear to have joined in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine the first time. Posts pro Russian propaganda. A useful idiot, a Russian propagandist, or just a troll?
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Apr 18, 2022 13:35
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lollontee posted:well, what is your source for the people of Mariupol hating the Russians then? Are you being serious now?
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Apr 18, 2022 13:36
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Owling Howl posted:There are military units stationed in Mariupol so of course there are ammo caches just like in every other Ukrainian city. The steel plant has tunnels but I find it quite doubtful that Ukrainian soldiers have been tunneling throughout the city. Mariupol has been a front line city for 7 years now, entrenchment and hiding ammo caches is what armies do in situations like that, especially when they're in the middle of a hostile, occupied territory. Also, um the nazis seemed quite spirited? like, they were rearing for this war to get going? I dunno how else you assess these things, except by relative bloodlust.
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Apr 18, 2022 13:38
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lollontee posted:Yeah, but sometimes they accept that is necessary to kill the nazis, such as in Netherlands during operation market garden. They might not have liked the fact, but that doesnt mean they hated the Allied troops marching through their devastated cities. To be clear, your thesis is that a city of 400,000 people containing a single regiment of 1000 fascists would say "hummm, yes, my family are dead and the entire city is levelled, but this is a small price to pay, thank you Mr Putin"? I assume you are doing a bit. It isn't very good.
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