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evilweasel posted:a half-baked russian assault sounds like a recepie for this shifting from a slow, bloody war of attrition to something where russian strength could seriously collapse One of Russia's problems with launching a second assault is all the top tier spearhead units for just such an operation were torn up in the failed first phase of the operation. Any replenishment is going to be from shittier troops with older gear. Contrary to dumb twitter theories Russia overwhelmingly led the invasion with "elite" (at least relative to Russia...) Guards/Shock/VDV/Spetsnaz/etc. formations, and they all got hellfucked. 
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Apr 18, 2022 21:48
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Kraftwerk posted:I don't think the west has the stomach to keep Ukraine on military life support with free shipments of arms and getting little to nothing in return other than the destruction of Russian army assets. Beyond any strategic gains, bear in mind that Ukraine is a lucrative potential long-term customer for the UK and US arms industry. I'd speculate that thanks to QE (quantitive easing), Ukraine doesn't even need to have money to pay for anything. The UK and US governments can "gift" the arms, which in effect is a huge government-to-private payout to their various arms companies and their suppliers. In other terms, the US military budget is... $680billion+ each year? I would imagine it's easy to make the political argument that shuffling off a percentage point or two (a mere $13billion) to eliminate the army of a strategic adversary is remarkably good value for money. Particularly when it has the auspices of doing the Right Thing.
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Apr 18, 2022 21:49
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sean10mm posted:One of Russia's problems with launching a second assault is all the top tier spearhead units for just such an operation were torn up in the failed first phase of the operation. Any replenishment is going to be from shittier troops with older gear. yeah thats kinda a good point. i feel like alot of the elite either died/hosed up in the first couple days or are doing poo poo in mauripol. my guess is alot of the force are massed conscripts/"conscripts" and DNR dudes. Aertuun posted:Beyond any strategic gains, bear in mind that Ukraine is a lucrative potential long-term customer for the UK and US arms industry. I'd speculate that thanks to QE (quantitive easing), Ukraine doesn't even need to have money to pay for anything. The UK and US governments can "gift" the arms, which in effect is a huge government-to-private payout to their various arms companies and their suppliers. this and it had resonable bipartsian support(most of which passed already) OR are under EO perview, so they have at the very least 2 more years of help but probably much longer.
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Apr 18, 2022 21:52
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Risky Bisquick posted:The Chilean/American 'journalist' has been captured, probably walked to the border and sent packing unless there are valid charges. See their hot takes below Holy smokes, that's an odd name to hear. I remember him from an old economics blog I used to read (which started going off the deep end in the early 2010s). He claimed, among other things, that the United States was a fascist police state under President Obama. And so I guess now he's pro-whatever Russia is doing. This crisis has been a fantastic opportunity for cranks to show their asses all over the world.
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Apr 18, 2022 21:52
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https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1516151517044162565 Never would’ve doubted our ole pal Graham to have it in him to be an accessory to war crimes.
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Apr 18, 2022 21:54
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Kraftwerk posted:The gas fields, cold water ports, shipbuilding and industrial zones. I think Russia wants to make sure Ukraine has nothing valuable to trade to the west thus leaving them entirely at the political mercy of a Marshall Plan from a country that can't even find the political willpower to do its own infrastructure spending beyond the bare minimum for existing roads and bridges. defense spending, and lots of it, is the thing that the american political system absolutely excels at. and here is a chance to turn money directly into blown up russian poo poo, without the risk of dead american soldiers that might look bad on tv, taking the most cynical view possible. and you have all those defense contractors with factories spread carefully throughout key districts salivating over the chance to keep factory lines running 24/7 that wouldn't usually be running close to that often the taps are going to stay wide open as long as ukraine can convert american munitions into russian rubble
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Apr 18, 2022 21:57
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I would encourage anyone who's interested in accurately assessing the military situation in Ukraine to read and listen to any (and all) of Michael Kofman's material. As far as I'm aware he's gotten pretty much every prediction on Ukraine right so far, down to correctly predicting the date of the Russian invasion all the way back in December 2021. He posts concisely on Twitter and also appears on a few different podcasts. My poor summary of his analysis on the current situation: in a war of attrition, the eventual victor is uncertain. However, Russia needs to go to full mobilisation to win. It hasn't yet, and it may be getting too late for it to do so. Also, one thing that I've noticed in this thread. There are a lot of people on Twitter, whether OSInt or analysts or academics, who are desperate for attention and clicks. To do this, they need to make Big Claims, the more outrageous the better. However none of these claims are based on anything, and frequently many of these people have no additional sources, and are in fact worse informed, than many people in this thread (imagine that). I don't want to pick on anyone's favorite Twitter personality, but you can usually tell by looking at who someone is followed by. Some of the louder academics and analysts are only followed by talking heads and journalists, not the more serious analysts who have to get their predictions right.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:08
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Aertuun posted:My poor summary of his analysis on the current situation: in a war of attrition, the eventual victor is uncertain. However, Russia needs to go to full mobilisation to win. It hasn't yet, and it may be getting too late for it to do so. What would factor into it being "too late" to fully mobilize? Is it based on economic or logistical factors? Sanctions hurting too much or ammo running low? I'm not aware of any ticking clock in Ukraine's favor at the moment.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:20
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evilweasel posted:defense spending, and lots of it, is the thing that the american political system absolutely excels at. and here is a chance to turn money directly into blown up russian poo poo, without the risk of dead american soldiers that might look bad on tv, taking the most cynical view possible. and you have all those defense contractors with factories spread carefully throughout key districts salivating over the chance to keep factory lines running 24/7 that wouldn't usually be running close to that often Oddly enough, I'm pretty sure arms manufacturing in the United States for the allied war effort was how the US went from being a bunch of relative unknowns to a global economic juggernaut in 1918. I'd love to figure out if the reason why a lot of soviet era surplus ammunition (the stuff they sell in large cans) is unavailable on the open market because it's all used up in Ukraine. I'd also really like to know if a bunch of US sponsored arms dealers (like in the movie Lord of War) are making a killing right now smuggling weapons into Ukraine. I was watching a lot of the feeds like everyone else and I've heard all kinds of stuff about small arms. Like how foreign volunteers actually get a choice between an FN-FNC if they want 5.56 NATO rounds or they can get an AKM variant for 7.62. There's a mish mash of all kinds of weapons out there including tons of small arms from one "Savage Arms" where the troops are basically using US civillian arms for domestic markets like the 110 bolt action rifle and 5.56 AR-15 variants with semi-auto action. Ukraine right now is some bizarre mishmash of NATO, Former Soviet Union and present day Russian small arms that I can't make heads or tails of how the Ukrainian supply corps keeps track of all the ammunition and permutations.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:23
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WarpedLichen posted:What would factor into it being "too late" to fully mobilize? Is it based on economic or logistical factors? Sanctions hurting too much or ammo running low? I'm not aware of any ticking clock in Ukraine's favor at the moment. Well you need some time to make a reservist into a trooper ready for combat - unless you are DNR and send jazz musicians in rags to die on the frontline. All while Ukraine has been preparing their reserves from 24th of February and waiting for Western heavy arms shipments.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:23
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How big is the US stockpile of Switchblade drones? If by some miracle the US had enough to let Ukraine flood the frontline with the 600 variant, it feels like a weapon being offered that might turn the tide.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:25
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Russia also needs experienced personnel to train their conscripts, and the pool of that is shrinking which affects their ability to mobilize.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Oh, I’m definitely optimistic about long term chances of Ukraine. I’m just managing my expectations with respect to the chance that Russia will mismanage every single episode of this. Their rather handy combination of arrogance and haphazardness does help with that, however. I appreciate that not everyone that was mobilized on the Russian side is actually in country, but this is like 61-76K some troops. Didn't they start with 175K or so in theatre? What happened* to them, or is there another 80K troops on their side of the border in reserve? * dead in the burnt husk of a BMP hopefully
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Apr 18, 2022 22:31
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WarpedLichen posted:What would factor into it being "too late" to fully mobilize? Is it based on economic or logistical factors? Sanctions hurting too much or ammo running low? I'm not aware of any ticking clock in Ukraine's favor at the moment. You need several months to get troops trained and equipped to fight. If you wait until you need them, the war will be over (and lost) before they're able to do anything.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:31
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I believe Russia has completely failed to menace Odessa, right? So even if they seize/keep Mariupol, Ukraine still has a port on the Black Sea, and that side of the water seems to be NATO members. I mean maybe there's something I"m not getting, but isn't Odessa a port also?
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Apr 18, 2022 22:32
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Morrow posted:Russia also needs experienced personnel to train their conscripts, and the pool of that is shrinking which affects their ability to mobilize. i am guessing they are just handing them guns and couple clips and putting them in a BDR and hoping for the best.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:32
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Regarding the Switchblades, this guy (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYLLq6n-w88O2LjWaiYqV8A) who does PR for the Ukrainian Armed Forces said on his livestream today that the Switchblades have been deployed and we should have some "interesting" videos soon.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:35
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WarpedLichen posted:What would factor into it being "too late" to fully mobilize? Is it based on economic or logistical factors? Sanctions hurting too much or ammo running low? I'm not aware of any ticking clock in Ukraine's favor at the moment. As others have said it takes time to turn civilians into soldiers. It would take a month to get them to their bases alone, and then 3-4 months for basic training. And that’s just to get grunts who can mostly follow basic orders and hit what they’re aiming for most of the time. An effective fighting force needs more than grunts though. While this is happening Russia’s economy suffers more and more damage, and they continue to lose more and more irreplaceable equipment on the battlefield. By the time they get those reservists to the front line it will almost be mud season again. Ukraine obviously wants this over as soon as possible but time is more on their side and less on Russia’s.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:40
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Aertuun posted:I would encourage anyone who's interested in accurately assessing the military situation in Ukraine to read and listen to any (and all) of Michael Kofman's material. As far as I'm aware he's gotten pretty much every prediction on Ukraine right so far, down to correctly predicting the date of the Russian invasion all the way back in December 2021. I’ll be less diplomatic than you and say that Trent Telenko’s takes somehow can get even more cooked than Kamil Galeev’s. Also, there’s a mildly ugly Twitter slap fight that Phillips P. OBrien tried to push on Michael Kofman. Crow Buddy posted:I appreciate that not everyone that was mobilized on the Russian side is actually in country, but this is like 61-76K some troops. Didn't they start with 175K or so in theatre? What happened* to them, or is there another 80K troops on their side of the border in reserve? The number of BTGs at the start was something like 120. Tweet says 76 BTGs are in the country, Mariupol excluding. Reportedly, 12 more BTGs are in Mariupol and 22 in Belarus. That leaves us with 10 BTGs gone the way of and unknown casualty rates in the rest.Nessus posted:I believe Russia has completely failed to menace Odessa, right? So even if they seize/keep Mariupol, Ukraine still has a port on the Black Sea, and that side of the water seems to be NATO members. Odessa is the main port and they’ve not been close to it. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 22:45 on Apr 18, 2022 |
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Apr 18, 2022 22:41
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WarpedLichen posted:What would factor into it being "too late" to fully mobilize? Is it based on economic or logistical factors? Sanctions hurting too much or ammo running low? I'm not aware of any ticking clock in Ukraine's favor at the moment. I can only repeat my understanding of what he said. But it certainly chimed true with a lot of the issues the Russians have faced so far: Essentially the Russian army is designed around the idea that in a war scenario, the country would be fully mobilised. Those significant additional forces blend into the standing army, and allow it to operate at both full effectiveness and at a far greater size. Calling it a "special operation" rather than a war is not just a silly propaganda move, but also a serious military liability. By not fully mobilising, this caused a variety of issues (which we've been seeing over the past few weeks). Combined with poor strategic decisions at the outset (judged to be political in origin), has led to the current situation Russia finds itself in. In terms of the ticking clock; the longer this goes on without mobilisation, the more the standing army is... diminished. This means there is far less a base for any later mobilisation to blend into. By focusing on the eastern and southern regions, Russia has shifted to areas where it has greater advantages in terms of logistics. They have masses of equipment, and now actually the ability to get it to where they need it. However they have a severe manpower shortage. They need to mobilise ASAP. Ukraine meanwhile has a huge amount of manpower, but needs equipment. Aertuun fucked around with this message at 22:46 on Apr 18, 2022 |
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Apr 18, 2022 22:41
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kissekatt posted:Yes, good thing the USSR stuck to dropping bread baskets in Finland.  
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Apr 18, 2022 22:46
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You fools. The special operation Putin was talking about is actually meant to thwart a Russian army coup by destroying it's non conscripted units. Putins a genius.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:51
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If the Russians think they can occupy Mariupol without dedicating a bunch of troops to keep it that way, they're in for a rude awakening. Urban areas are notoriously difficult to hold because it's so easy to move around in them secretly, particularly when heavily shelled.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:52
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Kaal posted:If the Russians think they can occupy Mariupol without dedicating a bunch of troops to keep it that way, they're in for a rude awakening. Urban areas are notoriously difficult to hold because it's so easy to move around in them secretly, particularly when heavily shelled. Topical tweet: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1516138087818137610
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Apr 18, 2022 22:53
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Aertuun posted:Beyond any strategic gains, bear in mind that Ukraine is a lucrative potential long-term customer for the UK and US arms industry. Remember that the anti-tank Stugna-P and the Ukrainian missile that sunk the Moskva are Ukrainian made, technically complex, modern and effective. The Moskva was also built in Ukraine. They will certainly revive their industrial capacity for these and other arms. While they may indeed purchase other inventories, it would be surprising if Ukraine themselves don't find customers for their proven materiel as they rebuild their industry.
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Apr 18, 2022 22:58
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Less than 10k troops (assuming full TOEs, which lol) in the whole Mariupol axis sounds like a real skeleton crew.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:00
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If we take the UA numbers at face value, ~20k KIA, let’s be generous and only assume ~40k wounded, that’s 60k troops gone from the RU side. They also claim there are 7 or 8k KIA in Kyiv refrigeration right now. The problem is who’s numbers do we lean on, and whether we think they are reliable. Kaal posted:If the Russians think they can occupy Mariupol without dedicating a bunch of troops to keep it that way, they're in for a rude awakening. Urban areas are notoriously difficult to hold because it's so easy to move around in them secretly, particularly when heavily shelled. There’s nothing left to govern. They are going to filter people out and kidnap them to RU
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Apr 18, 2022 23:03
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steinrokkan posted:Less than 10k troops (assuming full TOEs, which lol) in the whole Mariupol axis sounds like a real skeleton crew. They say 12 freed up. They still need troops to occupy so there is more than 12 BTGs that are attacking the city right now.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:04
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the popes toes posted:Remember that the anti-tank Stugna-P and the Ukrainian missile that sunk the Moskva are Ukrainian made, technically complex, modern and effective. The Moskva was also built in Ukraine. They will certainly revive their industrial capacity for these and other arms. While they may indeed purchase other inventories, it would be surprising if Ukraine themselves don't find customers for their proven materiel as they rebuild their industry. To who though? I can't see any nation state basing their military supply chain on a 3rd party with unfriendly neighbors. Regarding mobilization, I don't think this war is close to ending until I see stuff like massive protests calling for regime change in Russia. I feel like there's no way out for Putin while saving face and my gut is telling me that his desire for prestige outweighs any number of damage to the Russian population. Even if the Russian military is diminished to the point where it can't mount any real offensives, they can keep up border skirmishes for a long time.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:05
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_ZKVRMpeIs&t=514s
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Apr 18, 2022 23:08
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Risky Bisquick posted:If we take the UA numbers at face value, ~20k KIA, let’s be generous and only assume ~40k wounded, that’s 60k troops gone from the RU side. They also claim there are 7 or 8k KIA in Kyiv refrigeration right now. Also how many the Ukrainians have been losing--if the Ukrainian government's claim of ~3,000 KIA and 10,000 WIA was accurate, and its estimate of Russian losses also accurate, Russia would be losing 6 or 7 to one (not counting POWs). But that's probably not accurate, and it's very unclear (at least to me) what the real numbers are likely to be. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 23:12 on Apr 18, 2022 |
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Apr 18, 2022 23:09
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Zhanism posted:They say 12 freed up. They still need troops to occupy so there is more than 12 BTGs that are attacking the city right now. I’m personally reading that tweet as 12 BTGs of conquest troops moving on, being replaced by police and national guard units not part of the armed forces formations.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:11
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WarpedLichen posted:Regarding mobilization, I don't think this war is close to ending until I see stuff like massive protests calling for regime change in Russia. I feel like there's no way out for Putin while saving face and my gut is telling me that his desire for prestige outweighs any number of damage to the Russian population. If Russia's army gets completely wrecked, then none of this stuff matters. The people can continue to be oblivious right up to the moment that they are told they lost.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:11
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Concerned Citizen posted:very large russian offensive has made more progress, apparently. It's looking like the Russians might control all of Luhansk Oblast soon.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:12
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I’ll be less diplomatic than you and say that Trent Telenko’s takes somehow can get even more cooked than Kamil Galeev’s. Also, there’s a mildly ugly Twitter slap fight that Phillips P. OBrien tried to push on Michael Kofman. Telenko seems like a prime example of someone who gets a bit of internet fame from expertise in one area, tires in this case, and then suddenly they are an expert on everything. I saw the slap fight between OBrien and Kofman and I wonder if there is prior bad blood there. Academics like to hold on to grudges. I still think both are still good follows.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:12
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 For context for foreigners, this Soviet cartoon is being censored by Russian government now. In the cartoon, kids descend to a wreckage with “Z” on it and say that it’s a known fascist symbol.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:13
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
These live action remakes of cartoons are getting better and better.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:18
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I just read that a World Central Kitchen restaurant was targeted and destroyed in Kharkiv, and I mean, sure there's already been plenty of war crimes, but here's an organization that is usually on the ground second only to maybe the Red Cross, trying to feed people whenever there's an earthquake or a volcano or forest fires or literally anything bad happens. If people in Russia needed help, they would help them, because they aren't political. It's just loving disgusting to target them, the Russian military is the most vile organization that's existed since the fall of Nazi Germany and Putin should end his life on the gallows.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:22
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I think this offensive is going to give us a very good idea of the state of Russian and Ukrainian forces at this point in time. It’s going to be very interesting to see how it pans out over the next few days. If Ukraine can mostly hold the line or retreat in good order and inflict losses then it’s curtains for Russian ambitions.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:27
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TulliusCicero posted:I'm not sure where people are remotely getting the idea that the same Russian military, which has failed at every military objective so far besides gunning down unarmed civilians, suddenly became competent enough to launch a 2nd massive offensive in a month because *checks notes* a platoon in a village was attacked by a bunch of tanks. Going back a few pages here but worth a comment. So many things have changed since 7 weeks ago. It is important to remember that the primary reason why the Russians failed in the opening month of the war was largely driven by assumptions that the Ukrainians would not fight and/or that there was popular support for Russia to move in like what happened in Crimea. If you assume that the professional core of the Russian army (what's left of it) was in fact capable of performing at a reasonable level (somewhere in between US Army and Iraqi Forces 2003) and was simply placed in a no-win situation by following a plan that had no business seeing the light of day, then it is not unreasonable to assume that if given a battle plan that is worth a poo poo, and that they are given objectives that are within their capabilities (ie not having units dangling on the end of supply lines hundreds of km long which are constantly hammered by Ukrainian forces) and properly supported that you would see a much better showing in round 2. The areas that are being reportedly attacked would represent a much more scaled-back offensive where the targets are close to territory that the Russians already have firmly under their control. It represents an attempt to gain the self-declared borders of the Donbas republics in a piecemeal manner rather than the sweeping battles of encirclement that were being proposed (ie mass encirclement of the Donbas) on Twitter 2 weeks ago when the Russian redeployment was recognized for what it was). I would argue that if they tried to go for something like that, then it would truely mean that the Russians have learned nothing. As is, I wouldn't jump on any conclusions either since this is the first bit of news in weeks that Russia is mounting something legitimately serious. I wouldn't automatically just assume that Russia isn't capable of anything at all though by applying what happened the first month of the war to this current situation. Kaal posted:If the Russians think they can occupy Mariupol without dedicating a bunch of troops to keep it that way, they're in for a rude awakening. Urban areas are notoriously difficult to hold because it's so easy to move around in them secretly, particularly when heavily shelled. Like how many people are still alive in Mariupol? Is there any measurable number of civillians left in the city to cause trouble? Given Russian behaviour, it wouldn't be surprising if they just carted off the entire population if they had any worries at all.
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Apr 18, 2022 23:28
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