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Hack around and find out, 
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Apr 19, 2022 12:46
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Rust Martialis posted:How long will it take to capture Warsaw? 2 days Oh my God I am howling *chef's kiss* Poland is more interested in scaring the refugees shitless by sounding our air raid sirens in remembrance of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising (and the Smolensk crash) than attacking Belarus tho.
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Apr 19, 2022 12:55
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DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:My prognostication is that it’s a coin flip, if things break Ukraine’s way again then Russia has one more big offensive left in its pocket for the summertime (and there will be a nuclear crisis as bad as the Cuban missile crisis if so). If Ukraine folds then in under a year the Russians will be back outside Kyiv, conducting genocidal counterinsurgency in occupied territory for possibly an indefinite period of time. My guess is that if the current offensive succeeds in capturing the entire Donbas plus a significant amount of territory outside of it (in addition to what they've already occupied), then they will try to use said territory as a bargaining chip for recognition of their annexation of the Donbas and Crimea. Which the Ukrainians will likely refuse, given their attitude up until now. I honestly doubt they will try to take Kyiv again, or that there will be a nuclear crisis. Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 13:01 on Apr 19, 2022 |
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Apr 19, 2022 12:59
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Saint Celestine posted:There is absolutely no way theyre going to finish the Ukrayina. Its a 40 year old rusted out hulk. Then why hasn’t it been sold for scrap already? Do you know how much it costs to keep a ship like that laid up? Probably in the range of $10k a day.
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Apr 19, 2022 13:00
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New Petersburg 2072: a lone hacker is decrypting secret files concerning the construction of Tsytadel station. Suddenly the computer screen flashes red! "Remain where you are" a robotic voice compels, as the dreaded sunflower logo blossoms on screen...
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Apr 19, 2022 13:01
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Risky Bisquick posted:Belarus talking a big game Wait, what the hell? Is this real? I totally missed the build-up to these statements. Is there any reason for Belarus to expect an attack from these three countries?
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Apr 19, 2022 13:03
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UCS Hellmaker posted:I wouldn't be surprised if almost the entire us submarine fleet is nuclear subs at this point though. The entire United States submarine fleet, aside from deep diving research, salvage, and rescue submarines are nuclear powered. The United States Navy fields 0 diesel-electric SSNs, SSBNs, or SSGNs. In other words, the USNs combat submarines are all nuclear powered.
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Apr 19, 2022 13:06
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Phlegmish posted:Wait, what the hell? Is this real? I totally missed the build-up to these statements. Is there any reason for Belarus to expect an attack from these three countries? here is the only English source I've found for Belarus' statement. It seems to just be paranoia. quote:Volfovich claims that in these countries the number of military and weapons is allegedly increasing, the military infrastructure is being modernized. He also announced an increase in the number of foreign aviation flights near the borders of Belarus. https://news.storyua.com/news/12524.html
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Apr 19, 2022 13:09
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Phlegmish posted:Wait, what the hell? Is this real? I totally missed the build-up to these statements. Is there any reason for Belarus to expect an attack from these three countries? I can tell you that this is absolute bullshit from the side of Poland, we never talked about attacking anyone aside from clamoring on Article 5 of NATO, which still wouldn't be a threat to Belarus. Ukrainian artillery explosion as seen by the camera of a Russian soldier next to Izyum. One of the last things the camera and the guy ever saw. code: doesn't remove embed links for me, weird.
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Apr 19, 2022 13:10
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ZombieLenin posted:Then why hasn’t it been sold for scrap already? Do you know how much it costs to keep a ship like that laid up? Probably in the range of $10k a day. Why would it cost 10k a day to have a ship cold stack
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Apr 19, 2022 13:11
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Phlegmish posted:Wait, what the hell? Is this real? I totally missed the build-up to these statements. Is there any reason for Belarus to expect an attack from these three countries? Russia and Belarus had a huge build up of troops, vehicles and supplies in the run-up to the invasion. Belarus is currently seeing a big build up of troops, vehicles and supplies across its border (because Russia can't be trusted right now) and they're publicly jumping to some conclusion for internal propaganda use and because they like to distract international opinion away from the warcrimes in Ukraine. It could also be to signal to Putin just how threatened they feel and that this is the reason they couldn't go help take Kyiv by storm.
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Apr 19, 2022 13:21
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I remember when a bunch of nerds over on the AboveTopSecret.com forums were contemplating pooling money for a Russian ship to be FREE and liberation and what not.
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Apr 19, 2022 13:22
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Wikipedia says it costs US$225,000 a month to keep the ship up. Apparently Brazil was interested in purchasing it and modernizing it as recently as 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_cruiser_Ukraina
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Apr 19, 2022 13:23
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Kikas posted:Ukrainian artillery explosion as seen by the camera of a Russian soldier next to Izyum. One of the last things the camera and the guy ever saw.
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Apr 19, 2022 13:27
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Kikas posted:
Well that is a lot of fragments moving in the camera's direction.
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Apr 19, 2022 13:27
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Kikas posted:
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Apr 19, 2022 13:35
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Night battle. Terrifying. https://twitter.com/aronets/status/1516348830853251072
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Apr 19, 2022 13:42
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ZombieLenin posted:Then why hasn’t it been sold for scrap already? Do you know how much it costs to keep a ship like that laid up? Probably in the range of $10k a day. Sunk cost. If we were just going to scrap it, why have we spent $10k a day for the last hundred years to keep it laid up? We can't scrap it or that'd all be wasted!
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Apr 19, 2022 13:46
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Phlegmish posted:Wait, what the hell? Is this real? I totally missed the build-up to these statements. Is there any reason for Belarus to expect an attack from these three countries? No, Lukashenko is trying to signal to Putin that he’s doing *something*, as an excuse for not sending his troops into the Russian meat grinder. Kikas posted:doesn't remove embed links for me, weird. That’s a mobile app issue.
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Apr 19, 2022 13:47
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Gort posted:Sunk cost. Absolutely not. It's just a Special Underwater Financial Operation.
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Apr 19, 2022 13:47
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the popes toes posted:Night battle. Terrifying. Old video, not from this year.
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Apr 19, 2022 13:50
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Kikas posted:Hack around and find out,
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Apr 19, 2022 13:55
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Crazy video (nothing NWS, just a rocket fired at a vehicle) but interesting note that based on the weapon being used, Azov/Mariupol was being supplied with the latest weapons until at least the end of March ik edit:  shoulder rocket fired at APChttps://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1516395004935213061 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 14:00 on Apr 19, 2022 |
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Apr 19, 2022 13:55
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Old video, not from this year. Ah, thanks...
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Apr 19, 2022 13:56
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Still amazes me how FAST they are
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Apr 19, 2022 13:57
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https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1516384679234093058
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Apr 19, 2022 13:58
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Even funner fact: Ukraine has twice as many MATADOR launchers than the German army has in its active inventory. They started from 0. The numbers from other countries aren't public, but it's likely that Ukraine is the largest operator of MATADOR in the world. This war is some weird poo poo tbh.
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Apr 19, 2022 13:59
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Humphreys posted:Still amazes me how FAST they are I was expecting to see the usual "jumps out of the tube then ignites" rocket, wasn't expecting an almost hitscan explosion.
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Apr 19, 2022 14:07
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That Italian Guy posted:I was expecting to see the usual "jumps out of the tube then ignites" rocket, wasn't expecting an almost hitscan explosion. Thats the word I was thinking of. Hitscan.
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Apr 19, 2022 14:10
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:Crazy video (nothing NWS, just a rocket fired at a vehicle) Oh Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr, I pine for theeeeeeeeeeeee.
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Apr 19, 2022 14:17
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That Italian Guy posted:I was expecting to see the usual "jumps out of the tube then ignites" rocket, wasn't expecting an almost hitscan explosion. Light AT launchers are basically recoilless rifles (and some literally are, like the AT4).
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Apr 19, 2022 14:24
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cinci zoo sniper posted:No, Lukashenko is trying to signal to Putin that he’s doing *something*, as an excuse for not sending his troops into the Russian meat grinder. That does make a lot of sense in how it contrasts with their cautiousness regarding Ukraine itself, although it's still weird to make statements like that out of the blue.
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Apr 19, 2022 14:25
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Meanwhile, in the west: Russian troops retreated after an hour-long assault on Alexandrovka in the Kherson region quote:An almost hour-long assault by Russian troops near Oleksandrivka in the Kherson region ended in their defeat, according to Operational Command South.
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Apr 19, 2022 14:31
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Will this have any sort of practical effect since Russia isn't allowing foreign investors to sell anything anyway? https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1516395536777203729?s=20&t=C2fuMj_YLJytgT5r5AIebQ Also for those wondering about how big an effect import sanctions on Russia will have https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1516323567520169985?s=20&t=KXo3RFO0OPhkO2IZU0f6MQ Article: https://www.forbes.ru/finansy/462829-ot-avtoproma-do-farmacevtiki-naskol-ko-rossijskaa-ekonomika-zavisit-ot-importa Maybe not much now, but sooner than later poo poo's gonna start going rapidly sideways
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Apr 19, 2022 14:37
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Phlegmish posted:That does make a lot of sense in how it contrasts with their cautiousness regarding Ukraine itself, although it's still weird to make statements like that out of the blue. For a couple of months now Lukashenka is doing side business moving refugees from Iraq (and I think some other places). Of course Polish government being right wing assholes they are "raised to the challenge" and moved some soldiers to the borders, then built barriers etc. Since then there are constant stream of accusations from both sides with (allegedly) border guards on Polish side being peppered with stones, or having lasers aimed at them, with Belarussian side claiming similar stuff. Polish guards and soldiers do their best to push the refugees back through the border, thereby clearly breaking the international law, I imagine state sponsored coyote operation isn't also legal. Both governments get to feed off that conflict of course. There's similar stuff happening on Lithuanian border, but I have no info about it. Also to give more background on why Batka is so mad at Poland and Lithuania: most of people that run away from his "paradise" end there, there's even almost "government in exile" in Poland centered around Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
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Apr 19, 2022 14:43
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KitConstantine posted:Will this have any sort of practical effect since Russia isn't allowing foreign investors to sell anything anyway? I naively assume this would make it that much harder to start trading back up if they have to go through a whole process instead of just flipping a switch to resume trading.
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Apr 19, 2022 14:44
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Gervasius posted:Entire USN, RN and French navy subs are 100% nuclear. Mild derail. Are all French subs nuclear? I would guess not because of the big tiff over Australia’s reneging on their contract for French diesel-electric subs and then signing a new contract with the US and UK to receive nuclear subs. Or was it just that the French won’t sell nuclear subs to others?
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Apr 19, 2022 14:54
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The Netherlands seems to be stepping up. https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1516396691217428480 Denmark to in our own little way  https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1516382485155827729 Germany probably still mad the Ukrainian ambassador isn't saying bitte and danke enough while they finance a genocide.
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Apr 19, 2022 14:54
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:Crazy video (nothing NWS, just a rocket fired at a vehicle) but interesting note that based on the weapon being used, Azov/Mariupol was being supplied with the latest weapons until at least the end of March They had a sneaky helicopter route they used until the beginning of april.
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Apr 19, 2022 14:56
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Alan Smithee posted:im curious how did he predict the date of invasion One podcast is from the Modern War Institute on the 2nd December 2021: https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-a-looming-showdown-over-ukraine/ It's a very good listen as it explains both the build-up (which started in early 2021) and the role that conscripts play in the Russian army (that is still relevant now). Also goes through the Russian government's motivations in some detail. Predicting the invasion date was a matter of looking at all the different factors involved (military, political, economic), how they'd developed over the past year, and charting them ahead. "[The Russian Government] looks like a leadership that has increasingly talked itself into use of force." He then said that if an invasion was going to happen, we'd start to see other events occurring e.g. Russia actively looking for pretexts to invade.
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Apr 19, 2022 14:59
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