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Charlz Guybon posted:He doesn't seem willing to conduct a full mobilization though. And every day he delays that pushes off the time range large numbers of reinforcements can arrive to 3~4 months in the future (assuming they are trained). Qnd every month that passes the Ukranian army gets significantly larger and better equiped. Given that, it's very hard for me to see the Russian line lasting to the fall without collapsing. I kinda agree. But I also remember that expectations of a short war have been historically debunked, over and over. I'm really hesitant about predicting a short war. I don't see how he can continue, but I also don't see him stopping.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:43
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Rad Russian posted:Option 3 is Russia mobilizing more troops and trying to delay the war. My guess is the current offensives are to get the actual active army to capture the land areas Putin wants to defend (looks like all of Donbas + land bridge). Putin can then mobilize just the reservists, let's say 300K, to send there and dig them into trenches. All they need for that are rifles and basic AT weapons. The remaining active army will provide artillery support and air support. It will be hard to attack 300K entrenched troops and that can buy Russia 8 more years of protracted war just like it was since 2014 (although it was a smaller front). I think people are making a big mistake here assuming Russia has to keep the offense going to continue the war. It is likely in my eyes that even if Russia starts running out of resources to perpetuate an offensive war, they can keep Ukraine from recapturing the areas they've already taken. In fact, they might keep the war ongoing on a low burn to strengthen the dictatorship at home. Basically, the North Korea model on a larger scale. This will suck for the Russian people, but Putin and his supporters might take this option just to stay in power because they can keep the propaganda and rhetoric up. The recent videos of Putin being markedly unhealthy might mean that the powers that be in Russia looking to stabilize the country might prefer the war to focus attention on, stupid as it sounds. This also sucks for Ukraine because Russia might be able to put enough pressure on to make recovery impossible. If the situation gets normalized enough, parties in the EU might want to reestablish economic ties with Russia. If Ukraine does get armed enough to go on the offense, I think the calculus does change and it might be the only viable shot at reversing this situation.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:43
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CommieGIR posted:Mobilizing troops only works if you can equip and supply them. That's anti revolutionary talk. Comrade GR.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:43
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i am curious what the gently caress this is. my guess is ukranian/??? cells in russia, OR maybe some weird lesser IC agencies are gunning for the throne. this poo poo isnt stuff that would be targeted by angry protesters or false flag poo poo. There's not enough fires yet for it to be anything really special, Russia is a big country. But if the trend keeps up, my favorite explanation is that the money intended for domestic supply security was stolen too, and now the people who stole it are panicking and lighting their own stocks/production lines on fire so that no-one can find out that the work that was supposed to be done, wasn't.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:44
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PederP posted:The problem is they can probably not get much from Ukrainian that could be sold at home. I don't think Ukraine will accept anything but a full withdrawal of Russia from Donbass and Kherson. They will certainly not accept an imposition of neutrality, if it means no security guarantees and no EU membership. Selling a situation which is worse than the outset is hard. But I maintain that the longer this goes on, the bigger the chance of a Russian military disintegration which would be incredibly humiliating. Hence, I expect either a failed desperate offensive, attacking NATO in the mildest possible manner to draw them in to justify a withdrawal or simply a Russian major defeat. Flag chat has returned https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517528862556626945/photo/1 Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 16:45
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Risky Bisquick posted:Liberated What the gently caress is it with the Soviet flags lol I'm sure someone's done an effort post about this but why the hell are they raising loving Soviet flags if Putin wants to be a bulwark against communism
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Apr 22, 2022 16:52
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:What the gently caress is it with the Soviet flags lol unity, specifically unity of the ussr puppet republics with direction from moscow
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Apr 22, 2022 16:54
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Putin wants to be a bulwark against communism I have literally never heard that before?
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Apr 22, 2022 16:55
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:What the gently caress is it with the Soviet flags lol The Soviet Union was a Russian empire. It's not about ideology but rather geography.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:55
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https://twitter.com/WeLoveNATO/status/1517474459715743746?t=_WOnPXup308ryJ-WNsHWeQ&s=19 Spoiler alert: they couldn't solve the chair goblin posture mystery either
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Apr 22, 2022 16:58
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Deteriorata posted:The Soviet Union was a Russian empire. It's not about ideology but rather geography. Kind of? Its the same reason they can't back down from the 'Ukrainians are all either Nazis, Russians cruelly subjugated by Nazis, or idiotic dupes' claim they've been pushing for the last 8 years - they want to hearken back to the heroic mythology of the Soviet Union (also pushed by the Kremlin) for this war See this https://twitter.com/DrJadeMcGlynn/status/1517521923420442624?s=20&t=fVRpDwFDM1joVdsogj59EQ Including Russian soldiers who died in Ukraine among the sainted heroes of the Soviet union is policy now. Russia is reportedly planning to hold the same parade in the ruins of Mariupol on the 9th *zizek voice* ideology
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Apr 22, 2022 17:01
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I'm pretty sure they're using the USSR flag on the same way America's idiots use the stars-and-bars- something to piss off their victims.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:06
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https://twitter.com/stratcomcentre/status/1517523369725374464?s=21&t=1I1e0vVOyG9USY4guCMnFg
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Apr 22, 2022 17:08
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GABA ghoul posted:https://twitter.com/WeLoveNATO/status/1517474459715743746?t=_WOnPXup308ryJ-WNsHWeQ&s=19 To me it looks just chronic back pain.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:09
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Ratoslov posted:I'm pretty sure they're using the USSR flag on the same way America's idiots use the stars-and-bars- something to piss off their victims. That flag never stopped being an emblem of russian nationalism. It's got nothing to do with ideology. It's hearkening back to a time when Russia was strong. Go look at nationalist and especially Victory Day celebrations from two decades ago. It's everywhere. Hell one of Putin's victory laps upon becoming President was a return to the soviet anthem everyone loves to blare. Apparently online westerners have duped themselves into thinking the post-Lenin USSR was anything but Russian Empire Under New Management. WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:What the gently caress is it with the Soviet flags lol The Communist Party is literally Putin's controlled opposition. Edgar Allen Ho fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 17:11
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WaltherFeng posted:To me it looks just chronic back pain. Thing is we have countless videos of Putin sitting, walking, flying with storks, riding bears, and doing other things. As far as everyone has been concerned up until now, he’s rather healthy for someone who is 69. This is either something entirely new or something meticulously hidden up until now.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:13
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:That flag never stopped being an emblem of russian nationalism. It's got nothing to do with ideology. It's hearkening back to a time when Russia was strong. Go look at nationalist and especially Victory Day celebrations from two decades ago. It's everywhere. Hell one of Putin's victory laps upon becoming President was a return to the soviet anthem everyone loves to blare. The nationalism is the ideology it represents. That's what Putin's been building around the 'Brave Soviets (by this we mean Russians, the Only True Soviets) defeated the Nazis singlehandedly and Thus Saved Europe' mythology. Convienently coupled with 'THATS WHY YOU ALL SHOULD LISTEN TO US AND NOT THE UK/AMERICA WAAAHHH'
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Apr 22, 2022 17:15
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Thing is we have countless videos of Putin sitting, walking, flying with storks, riding bears, and doing other things. As far as everyone has been concerned up until now, he’s rather healthy for someone who is 69. I think this video calls for attention to it, something is definitely up. It looks like his leg fell asleep while standing. reddit link
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Apr 22, 2022 17:18
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Using the Soviet flags also serve the purpose of rewriting the entire Soviet project as simply one of Russia Stronk, erasing the ideological basis of the symbolism. Essentially it elides the entire communist project, refusing to admit the possibility that there is any possible alternative to the basis of governance except the naked might of a Tsar.
TheDeadlyShoe fucked around with this message at 17:21 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 17:18
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Mama, did the hedgehog fall? No he is hiding under the leaf [Is it] hiding because of the air raid sirens?  https://twitter.com/twikurwa/status/1517190829391159296  https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1517523880331681794
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Apr 22, 2022 17:29
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Thing is we have countless videos of Putin sitting, walking, flying with storks, riding bears, and doing other things. As far as everyone has been concerned up until now, he’s rather healthy for someone who is 69. I mean, I’m pretty healthy and sometimes I wake up having magically thrown out my back while sleeping, aging is a bitch and I’m barely more than half his age. Maybe he’s also just got some mild scoliosis and a few old minor but nagging knee injuries too?
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Apr 22, 2022 17:29
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Rad Russian posted:Putin can then mobilize just the reservists, let's say 300K, to send there and dig them into trenches. All they need for that are rifles and basic AT weapons. The remaining active army will provide artillery support and air support. It will be hard to attack 300K entrenched troops and that can buy Russia 8 more years of protracted war just like it was since 2014 (although it was a smaller front). In a world where PGM munitions and drones don't exist you're probably right. But this isn't that world. In 2022 if you're in a trench against a enemy who has those weapons you're going to die in that trench.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:31
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Thaddius the Large posted:I mean, I’m pretty healthy and sometimes I wake up having magically thrown out my back while sleeping, aging is a bitch and I’m barely more than half his age. Maybe he’s also just got some mild scoliosis and a few old minor but nagging knee injuries too? It might be a tumor.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:32
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Risky Bisquick posted:It is part of the Black Sea fleet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_salvage_ship_Kommuna Is there a reason why the Ukrainian navy or coastal defense wouldn't put a missile into this one also so that it can do a really close inspection of the Moskva? I know its unarmed, but it is a enemy navy ship regardless. And we are well beyond giving a poo poo if that enemy vessel is unarmed or not; its not a hospital ship, or transferring civilians, and its operated by the enemy navy trying to recover enemy assets from the naval frontline.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:34
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Careful analysis of putins posture indicates we will have 3 more weeks of winter
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Apr 22, 2022 17:34
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Risky Bisquick posted:It is part of the Black Sea fleet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_salvage_ship_Kommuna Thanks for the clarification! That the ship was already in the fleet sort of reduces the significance of the fact that they're using it.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:36
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:In a world where PGM munitions and drones don't exist you're probably right. Yeah, the "fortify and camp in trenches" is a similar notion to "steamroll the enemy with massed armor". Modern warfare is complex and unpredictable. The potential for destruction and/or precision is at a completely different level to previous wars of this scale. If Russia fortifies in place, Ukraine has plenty of time to gear up with western weapons and once that's in place they'll be able to tear up those fortified units perfectly fine. It's not a single city or town they want to hold - it is a massive stretch of territory. The potential for being surrounded, outmaneuvered and/or cutoff is great. And several of those places have very unfriendly populations (southern Ukraine especially). I would claim Russia is on a clock - Ukraine is getting stronger by the week, and eventually they'll be able to dominate on the ground. When that happens, the dominos may start falling.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:36
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Wasting precious missiles on a ship that doesn't add any military value to the conflict is unwise.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:37
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Der Kyhe posted:Is there a reason why the Ukrainian navy or coastal defense wouldn't put a missile into this one also so that it can do a really close inspection of the Moskva? There's not a lot of military value in it. They don't have many Neptune missiles to spend on stuff that doesn't matter much.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:37
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Thing is we have countless videos of Putin sitting, walking, flying with storks, riding bears, and doing other things. As far as everyone has been concerned up until now, he’s rather healthy for someone who is 69. the funny thing is, they had the opportunity to just...not release this take, to redo it 
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Apr 22, 2022 17:37
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Der Kyhe posted:Is there a reason why the Ukrainian navy or coastal defense wouldn't put a missile into this one also so that it can do a really close inspection of the Moskva? It's a valid military target. That said, it's hard to see much benefit in sinking it for Ukraine, and it would use up at least one, maybe more than one, of a probably fairly limited number of anti-ship missiles.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:38
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Apparently, from legal perspective troops can refuse orders to go fight in Ukraine - the criminal code article for insubordination requires “substantial harm”, which is virtually impossible to prove in absence of officially declared state of war. Also, just a really funny interview if you read Russian. https://twitter.com/litavrinm/status/1517521008671997958 https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1517538440170156033 Edit: Thaddius the Large posted:I mean, I’m pretty healthy and sometimes I wake up having magically thrown out my back while sleeping, aging is a bitch and I’m barely more than half his age. Maybe he’s also just got some mild scoliosis and a few old minor but nagging knee injuries too? Could of course be that - I’d simply be surprised it took so long for something like an existing condition to surface. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 17:44 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 17:39
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WarpedLichen posted:I think people are making a big mistake here assuming Russia has to keep the offense going to continue the war. Russia cannot unilaterally freeze the war, both sides would have to agree to some kind of ceasefire. If they try unilaterally to decrease the intensity of their efforts while the other side still wants to fight, then they're just going to be slowly ground down by drones and limited offensives until they have to respond or are pushed back out of the country. Thus some amount of offensive success is needed, they need to smash the UA so hard that they agree to a ceasefire. Plus as a strategic situation, freezing the conflict commits them to endlessly bleed out resources against Ukraine's (vastly richer) NATO backers while at the same time making it nearly impossible that their overseas assets are unfrozen or that sanctions are lifted. This would not be sustainable, eventually either they would have to concede and negotiate from a much weaker position or else take the war hot, again from a much weaker position. There is no reason they would go down that path. They're strongest now and get weaker the longer they wait. They're going to try and get to the best situation they can and then try to negotiate a formal end of the fighting and some/all sanctions. WarpedLichen posted:If Ukraine does get armed enough to go on the offense, I think the calculus does change and it might be the only viable shot at reversing this situation. This is like saying the only way the NVA can win the Vietnam war is to drive the US army into the sea. Or that victory in Afghanistan is inevitable (either Soviet or US, take your pick). Yes you can win attritional warfare by overwhelming the enemy in conventional mobile warfare, but more often the side with more sustainability and more will to fight just exhausts the other side and gradually forces them to fall back into more and more isolated positions until the war becomes unsustainable.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:40
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Apparently, from legal perspective troops can refuse orders to go fight in Ukraine - the criminal code article for insubordination requires “substantial harm”, which is virtually impossible to prove in absence of officially declared state of war. Also, just a really funny interview if you read Russian.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:41
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:CAESAR has the best name of all weapons. CAmion Équipé d'un Système d'ARtillerie - truck with an artillery piece on it. They first came up with the acronym and then had to build it.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:44
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Risky Bisquick posted:Was this the conclusion of those OMON officers refusing to deploy? We don’t know. Of the 12 people refusing to deploy and suing the state for being fired, 9 people did withdraw their petitions. The remaining three went to the court, and their case was classified during the preliminary hearing on the 1st of April.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:46
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saratoga posted:This is like saying the only way the NVA can win the Vietnam war is to drive the US army into the sea. Or that victory in Afghanistan is inevitable (either Soviet or US, take your pick). Yes you can win attritional warfare by overwhelming the enemy in conventional mobile warfare, but more often the side with more sustainability and more will to fight just exhausts the other side and gradually forces them to fall back into more and more isolated positions until the war becomes unsustainable. I think you're missing the context where I'm arguing against the war being over quickly. How long did Vietnam or Afghanistan last? Both of those were two decade long conflicts. It takes a long time to exhaust a nation's will to fight. I doubt Russia can sustain a two decade conflict like the US can but it won't end after this offensive in May. I feel like even the end of this year is rosy thinking.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:49
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I just watched the YouTube video of that VDV soldier describing the first assault on Hostomel. That poor son-of-a-bitch. They never stood a chance. Their leadership is just incompetent and feckless all the way up. It was criminal to invade, and it was criminal to invade so incompetently. They didn't change positions for three loving days even though Ukraine had them under constant artillery fire. This whole thing is starting to give vibes of, "I am not trapped in here with you. You are trapped in here with me!" Sir John Falstaff posted:https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1517457629630455808 Now Poland can have British, German, and American tanks! (I think they still make one of their own, too, don't they?) Charlz Guybon posted:I feel like this will backfire in a huge way Is Russia trying to get Poland and Romania to just roll in to Moldova?
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Apr 22, 2022 17:53
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saratoga posted:Russia cannot unilaterally freeze the war, both sides would have to agree to some kind of ceasefire. I think it's worth noting though that in Transnistra, Georgia, and Ukraine 2014 Russia has gotten away with a pattern of frozen conflicts - it's been the up-till-now successful model of Putin's coercive diplomacy, aided by a West that has prioritised demanding immediate ceasefires and then pushing the victims of Russian aggression to accept concessions (ie. Minsk). As long as Ukraine refuses to play this game and the West doesn't make the mistake of pushing for a ceasefire that allows Russia to lock in the gains of its war then Russia really doesn't have a model for success in this situation.
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Apr 22, 2022 17:55
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WarpedLichen posted:I think you're missing the context where I'm arguing against the war being over quickly. How long did Vietnam or Afghanistan last? Both of those were two decade long conflicts. It takes a long time to exhaust a nation's will to fight. I doubt Russia can sustain a two decade conflict like the US can but it won't end after this offensive in May. I feel like even the end of this year is rosy thinking. That's a fair point, but even in Vietnam, the US never burned through equipment and personal as quickly as Russia has in this war.
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