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gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Those Excalibur shells apparently have a range of up to 40km so if you know of a fixed Russian position anywhere within that radius you can probably hit it fairly accurately.

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Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Incredibly detailed article about the military campaign so far.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1519041368672415747

quote:

The VDV – Russia’s airborne forces – spearheaded the invasion. In December, specialist units of the VDV had wargamed out their role in the repression of Ukrainian civil society alongside the 9th Directorate of the Fifth Service of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).9 The VDV assault units received the plan three days before the invasion and started excitedly talking in anticipation of their daring operation. VDV commanders started discussing their primary objective at Hostomel in clear. When they landed, therefore, they were met with Ukrainian artillery and a coordinated counterattack, quickly being driven from the airport.

Absolutely incredible.

e: it just keeps getting better:

quote:

Attacks throughout the depth of the advance16 also made the Russians unwilling to push sensitive EW and air-defence systems into Ukraine in case they were captured. So long as these systems were across the Ukrainian border, they could not jam the EMS on bearings to suppress the Ukrainians without also severing access to Russian forward elements. This was highly problematic at a time when Russian commanders were trying to unscramble the confusion that was engulfing their forward units. This had two consequences: the electronic suppression of Ukrainian radar and communications lifted after the first week, and senior Russian officers began to be drawn forwards, where like everything else in the Russian Army they became targets for snipers and artillery strikes.

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 01:35 on Apr 27, 2022

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Finnish FL https://mobile.twitter.com/rsiren2

UA attacked RU positions on snake island
https://mobile.twitter.com/ua_industrial/status/1519097324160618498

Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Apr 27, 2022

i am a moron
Nov 12, 2020

"I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"

Moon Slayer posted:

e: it just keeps getting better:

This is mindbogglingly loving stupid, the kind of thing that confirms Russia is incompetent on a level no one could’ve predicted

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Sir John Falstaff posted:

I'd be a bit careful with Oryx's numbers--"captured" just means that the asset was photographed or videoed in what looks like useable condition in the presence of forces from the opposite side:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1504472249939595268

But that doesn't necessarily mean that those forces have the ability to recover it--if it's out of gas, for example, those forces may not be able to fill it, or if it's stuck in the mud they may not be able to tow it out. Of course, they might also have captured some things that didn't appear on camera, too, but I don't think it's really possible to look at Oryx's numbers and say they have acquired 214 tanks from Russia. They have acquired some number, but the number is unknown, really. It's also somewhat unknown how many they've lost, since a lot of losses won't have appeared on camera.

Yeah, but some of those abandoned tanks will eventually be picked up Ukranian forces, so it evens things out

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1519106979112919040?s=20&t=_PInQdWpjwiqv8S79shMjA

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

The silver lining here, they ain't making replacements anytime soon

They're going to be stripping Soyuz rockets for parts to replenish their missile stockpiles. Bye bye Russian space industry.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010
Australia is getting into the howitzer game too:

https://twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1519100923465076736

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://twitter.com/osint88/status/1519129998485041152

Someone tell me this is an old photo.

Edit: It’s not :staredog:

https://t.me/vvgladkov/327

Governor says fire broke out in an ammunition warehouse, after an explosion-like sound. There were 3 more explosions heard, unspecified if somewhere else.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 03:12 on Apr 27, 2022

mutata
Mar 1, 2003

I don't mean to jump to conclusions, but it seems like Russia's border towns are having a bit of a rough time lately.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

mutata posted:

I don't mean to jump to conclusions, but it seems like Russia's border towns are having a bit of a rough time lately.

Having lots of ammunition piled up is dangerous. Accidents happen.

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

OddObserver posted:

Having lots of ammunition piled up is dangerous. Accidents happen.

Especially when all your poorly-made ammo is being haphazardly loaded, unloaded and stacked by hand by untrained, undisciplined and unpaid conscripts that have been abused to poo poo and don't give a gently caress about anything. The place probably has cheap wiring, the gas service is poorly-made and hasn't been inspected ever....

And you wonder why Ukrainians would rather die than be forced to join Russia

Valtonen
May 13, 2014

Tanks still suck but you don't gotta hand it to the Axis either.

HolHorsejob posted:

Especially when all your poorly-made ammo is being haphazardly loaded, unloaded and stacked by hand by untrained, undisciplined and unpaid conscripts that have been abused to poo poo and don't give a gently caress about anything. The place probably has cheap wiring, the gas service is poorly-made and hasn't been inspected ever....

And you wonder why Ukrainians would rather die than be forced to join Russia

And dont forget: not palleted. #palletwars.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1519141098567962624

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009
I remember the first few Ukrainian strikes into Russia were by either Tochka U missiles or Hind helicopters. The latter of which there was actual video evidence of. But ever since then we don't really 100% know how they have been striking into Russia do we?

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
I feel like this is optimistic and can’t be confirmed by third parties given there is no longer public data. I don’t think this can be taken at face value.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Valtonen posted:

And dont forget: not palleted. #palletwars.

The Americans spent billions developing a vehicle to lift cargo out of trucks, the Russians used a conscript

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Charliegrs posted:

I remember the first few Ukrainian strikes into Russia were by either Tochka U missiles or Hind helicopters. The latter of which there was actual video evidence of. But ever since then we don't really 100% know how they have been striking into Russia do we?

Nah. There was one security cam video from an oil storage place that was hit, that had audio that sounded like a plane going over head directly before it exploded, but as far as I know that's the most evidence out there for what they could be using, and well it's not really that great evidence at that. definitely not multiple cell videos of two helicopters flying away as an oil refinery erupts into massive fireballs in the background style evince.

(comedy option: This is the normal amount of Russian oil and ammo storage places that explode just natural.)


Risky Bisquick posted:

I feel like this is optimistic and can’t be confirmed by third parties given there is no longer public data. I don’t think this can be taken at face value.

Yeah, I wouldn't even remotely trust any official Russian finance figures. They've pretty much done everything they can to announce to the world they're cooking their books.

dr_rat fucked around with this message at 04:08 on Apr 27, 2022

All You Can Eat
Aug 27, 2004

Abundance is the dullest desire.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Governor says fire broke out in an ammunition warehouse, after an explosion-like sound. There were 3 more explosions heard, unspecified if somewhere else.

Wow, fog of war sure is a hell of a thing. I'm stumped.

Mr. Apollo
Nov 8, 2000

:nms:

https://t.me/combat_ftg/705

The aftermath of a dogfight between a Russian Su-34 and a Ukrainian MiG-29.

The Su-34 was shot down (I think you can see parachutes) and then the MiG-29 flys by. I guess the Su-34s are being sent in without any escorts or support.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
I haven’t seen any mockery of Russian communication security for a while. Is it still poo poo and getting read by Ukraine in real time or have they lifted their game? It would make sense for Ukraine to stop drawing attention to it if they are still able to listen in.

Doccers
Aug 15, 2000


Patron Saint of Chickencheese

gay picnic defence posted:

I haven’t seen any mockery of Russian communication security for a while. Is it still poo poo and getting read by Ukraine in real time or have they lifted their game? It would make sense for Ukraine to stop drawing attention to it if they are still able to listen in.

how would they be able to? At this point they're going to have difficulty paying for even another batch of baofengs.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


gay picnic defence posted:

I haven’t seen any mockery of Russian communication security for a while. Is it still poo poo and getting read by Ukraine in real time or have they lifted their game? It would make sense for Ukraine to stop drawing attention to it if they are still able to listen in.

Saw an image earlier on Twitter of unencrypted Toys R Us walkie talkies on some Russian soldiers.

It's probably a complete mishmash.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

gay picnic defence posted:

I haven’t seen any mockery of Russian communication security for a while. Is it still poo poo and getting read by Ukraine in real time or have they lifted their game? It would make sense for Ukraine to stop drawing attention to it if they are still able to listen in.
They are still being seen with unencrypted radios

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer

Mr. Apollo posted:

:nms:

https://t.me/combat_ftg/705

The aftermath of a dogfight between a Russian Su-34 and a Ukrainian MiG-29.

The Su-34 was shot down (I think you can see parachutes) and then the MiG-29 flys by. I guess the Su-34s are being sent in without any escorts or support.

That doesn't look like a MiG-29 it appears to only have a single rear stabilizer but it's hard to really tell. The jet that appears to be going down looks like it's popping flares.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Popete posted:

That doesn't look like a MiG-29 it appears to only have a single rear stabilizer but it's hard to really tell. The jet that appears to be going down looks like it's popping flares.

L-39??

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Looks like a frogfoot

Doccers
Aug 15, 2000


Patron Saint of Chickencheese

Looks like an SU-25 to me,

Tomberforce
May 30, 2006

Popete posted:

That doesn't look like a MiG-29 it appears to only have a single rear stabilizer but it's hard to really tell. The jet that appears to be going down looks like it's popping flares.

100% not a Mig 29. I would say SU-25 is a strong probability.


Tomberforce
May 30, 2006

Quote not edit

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Mr. Apollo posted:

:nms:

https://t.me/combat_ftg/705

The aftermath of a dogfight between a Russian Su-34 and a Ukrainian MiG-29.

The Su-34 was shot down (I think you can see parachutes) and then the MiG-29 flys by. I guess the Su-34s are being sent in without any escorts or support.

It looks like a SU-25 popping some flares followed by another SU-25. First plane is hard to see, second one pretty easy to see the high wing and distinct tail profile.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

Mr. Apollo posted:

:nms:

https://t.me/combat_ftg/705

The aftermath of a dogfight between a Russian Su-34 and a Ukrainian MiG-29.

The Su-34 was shot down (I think you can see parachutes) and then the MiG-29 flys by. I guess the Su-34s are being sent in without any escorts or support.

Why is this set to the Interstellar main theme? :raise:

Radical 90s Wizard
Aug 5, 2008

~SS-18 burning bright,
Bathe me in your cleansing light~
Fuckin lollin at the VDV giving away their own mission

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Russian anti air activated in Kursk and Voronezh
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1519168977808855042?t=8mLYLC_0Q1e4ghMGqwHc4A&s=19
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1519168977808855042?t=8mLYLC_0Q1e4ghMGqwHc4A&s=19
Or maybe it was aaaaall a drill
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1519182031573463040?t=7JpnuWFMcVFZmgtGKLEBuw&s=19

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?
Would the Switchblades not explain this? 10 shots a box right? Go rent a isolated house with space around so no one hears the initial shot that's on the edge of the city and boom something each night.

NTRabbit
Aug 15, 2012

i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches




Radical 90s Wizard posted:

Fuckin lollin at the VDV giving away their own mission

Maybe they should have also spent less time wargaming cracking civilian skulls with the riot cops afterwards and more time wargaming the actual assault plan.

KitConstantine posted:

ISW update is out
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1519096884345847808?s=20&t=x6BIGpY7W9ql09csWth-3g
Operationally the Russians appear to be more sound on the Izyum axis, but the Ukrainians are also significantly less dug in on the Russian line of approach from that direction.

Yeah but with Ukraine precision striking all their forward supply dumps with guided artillery, they'll still have the same logistics problem, and that's before the switchblades start hunting whatever trucks are left

NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 06:58 on Apr 27, 2022

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

NTRabbit posted:

Maybe they should have also spent less time wargaming cracking civilian skulls with the riot cops afterwards and more time wargaming the actual assault plan.

Yeah but with Ukraine precision striking all their forward supply dumps with guided artillery, they'll still have the same logistics problem, and that's before the switchblades start hunting whatever trucks are left

Beating up on civilians IS the Russian assault plan.

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

Tomn posted:

Perhaps I'm missing something but I'm not sure that correction makes the statement any better. He's still essentially saying "They used to be part of the Soviet Union (and thus Russia is implicitly justified in attacking them.)"

Except I finally got access to wi-fi and looked at the video in question and it's even weirder than I thought because when Blinken specifically noted that being former parts of the USSR doesn't give Russia the right to attack them Paul's response is "Nobody is saying it does, it really has nothing to do with this." Which...well, OK? So what, then? If you're not arguing that, then what was the point of bringing it up? Just to show off your knowledge of history?


Yeah since he also says the invasion is unjustified, so it’s not that — he’s just being a contrarian dick, as is the GOP’s general modus operandi.

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Freudian slippers
Jun 23, 2009
US Goon shocked and appalled to find that world is a dirty, unjust place

the popes toes posted:

Guys like this have dined out on being "free thinkers" for their whole lives. And honestly, they often, but not always, limp along fairly well at it. And while it's laudatory to look beyond the gov and media served propaganda to get to the "truth", they don't always get it right. On Ukraine (and some other topics) they are just flat out wrong. But that they are wrong on these topics because they are "assets" is just crazy conspiracy poo poo. And honestly, the FBI, because this is domestic, and the CIA because it's Russia, are actually pretty good at exposing assets. They may be asinine, but far from being assets in the directed sense.

Even if they're not being directed, they can still be an asset. An independent useful idiot is still an asset and state actors often take steps to "help" such people get into powerful positions. Even if Trump never collaborated with the Russians, he was still undoubtedly a Russian asset.

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