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Willo567 posted:Why would the U.S. want to let Russia know this? Wouldn't that make Putin more likely to escalate? Escalate how? What can Putin even do at this point anymore? A mobilization? It's very questionable how much that will help and it has massive drawbacks. Russia seems to already be all in on this
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May 5, 2022 20:25
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May 5, 2022 20:26
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Willo567 posted:Why would the U.S. want to let Russia know this? Wouldn't that make Putin more likely to escalate? They've been using this strategy to "boil the frog" for a while. Lots of small incremental escalations by the west, and each time, no escalation by Putin. They're likely releasing this information because they consider it a small enough step from what's already known publicly and at this point they know Putin isn't willing or isn't able to escalate over these small steps. These optional escalations are probably there to bridge the gap between major operational escalations that can't be hidden. This denial might also be part of a planned escalation. It might just be a fuckup, but equally, if you think admitting to this is too big a step, leak it then deny it to soften the blow. Releasing a bunch of conflicting information about something takes the edge off things so it's hard to tell if it's intentional. Chalks fucked around with this message at 20:29 on May 5, 2022 |
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May 5, 2022 20:26
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Willo567 posted:Why would the U.S. want to let Russia know this? Wouldn't that make Putin more likely to escalate? Maybe, but wouldn't it also make the generals more apprehensive about following his orders? You want them all to know they are in deep poo poo anyway. The realistic end here, which I have been preaching since early days, is a military coup against Putin. It's obviously not going to be nice, so if there's a nice ending with results that are good for Ukraine and bad for Russian aggression then I'm all ears.
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May 5, 2022 20:27
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Wildeyes posted:So why is the US being transparent about this? Is it because being transparent is less likely to escalate than having Russia discover a bombshell like this on their own? Someone itt explained it a while back better than I can. But yeah, partly that; and partly because they're announcing a fait accompli, i.e. "We will pursue every policy in support of Ukraine that doesn't cross the red line into making NATO party to the conflict." (like troops on the ground, NFZ, or the idea if letting Ukrainian pilots take off from NATO airfields) Interestingly, I haven't even seen the Russians condemning the intel sharing. They probably took it as a given. They mostly seem incensed about the weapons shipments is my impression. Also, like others touched on it was probably a given to the Russians from the start that the US was sharing actionable intelligence. Again, they're just being increasingly open about it. There was this big story last week too. https://twitter.com/mgerrydoyle/status/1519075939556085761?s=20&t=cAv3EtQEutkTB4hPidY2pA Thought this was an interesting breakdown of Lukashenko's latest statements. He's probably nearly as sick of the war as the Ukrainians at this point: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1522240855129604098?s=20&t=cAv3EtQEutkTB4hPidY2pA PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 20:36 on May 5, 2022 |
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May 5, 2022 20:29
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Willo567 posted:Why would the U.S. want to let Russia know this? Wouldn't that make Putin more likely to escalate? It means there's no realistic way for Russia to avoid losing key commanding people who get anywhere near the front. There's really nothing Russia can do about it.
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May 5, 2022 20:34
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barbecue at the folks posted:In sillier news: Avtotor, a huge manufacturer of cars in Russia, is for whatever reason no longer able to manufacture cars. To offset the understandable threat this state of affairs poses to the employees and their livelihood, the management in their infinite mercy have dealt out out 300 hectares of arable land to the workers in 10 acre plots and even sold them "high-quality domestic seed potatoes" to plant in it. http://www.avtotor.ru/news/2066-avtotor-vydelil-svoim-rabotnikam-zemelnye-uchastki-pod-ogorody Truly there has not been a better time to be an auto worker/surprise smallholder, the NATO dogs must be infuriated at the failure of their sanctions when faced with the Russian spirit. This really is something. I can't really tell if this is a 'hey here's a thing you could do' or a 'uh, we got nothing for you, here's some seed potatoes and some land, good luck'. If its the latter (and btw, it wasn't for everyone, it was a lottery to get the land/seeds), that is bound to start crack/pinging some Russian brains. It makes we wonder what kind of social support systems there are in RF. Is there unemployment or severance? The article mentions " benefits and guarantees provided for employees in accordance with collective agreements consistently provided"
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May 5, 2022 20:36
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JerikTelorian posted:Sorry to pull this up from a few pages back but this seems like A Very Big Deal. I imagine this is a pretty serious commitment to getting off Russian Gas? The biggest difference between getting off of Russian gas and Russian oil is transportation. The vast majority of oil is already transported by ships using very simple technology. This makes it very easy to switch to other sources of oil. There are only a couple refineries - one of them under majority control of the Russian Rosneft company - that are supplied via pipelines from Russia. A new law is being passed that will quickly make Rosneft control a thing of the past. They are also looking into quickly building small pipelines in order to connect those refineries to ports. On the other hand, Gas is almost entirely transported through pipelines. It is possible to transport it via ships, but that requires complex technology on the ships and also in the ports/terminals. Germany currently has exactly zero terminals capable of offloading gas from ships. They are looking into building at least two or three new fixed, onshore LNG terminals and at least four or five swimming offshore terminals. Two of those swimming terminals are supposed to be finished by the end of the year, another two by May next year, and another one with a small pipeline by fall next year. The fixed, onshore terminals are supposed to be finished by 2024/2025, replacing the temporary swimming terminals. Overall the capacity of the new terminals is planned to be roughly half of what Russian pipelines currently supply. The other half will be compensated for by deliveries from other countries and their LNG terminals as well as by reducing consumption.
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May 5, 2022 20:36
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PerilPastry posted:Someone itt explained it a while back better than I can. But yeah, partly that; and partly because they're announcing a fait accompli, i.e. "We will pursue every policy in support of Ukraine that doesn't cross the red line into making NATO party to the conflict." (like troops on the ground, NFZ, or the idea if letting Ukrainian pilots take off from NATO airfields) Please tell me he didn't actually speak the words "Thanks to yours truly, me that is"
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May 5, 2022 20:47
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 Some combat footage from the RU side supposedly, vehicles are still on fire, nearby artillery is heard. If we believe the byline they were assaulting Kharkivhttps://twitter.com/RicoWarrior26/status/1522300019252121603  UA finding a RU encampment, complete with inflatable sex toyhttps://twitter.com/dohuyaUmnyi/status/1521186007416193024 Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 20:53 on May 5, 2022 |
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May 5, 2022 20:49
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PerilPastry posted:
Lukashenko is a very simplistic man when it comes to media. Like Putin he doesnt use internet and gives no fucks about consistent messaging. AP is western media so he gives a message he thinks to west will like. Should he talk to RT he will froth at the mouth about being together with Russia in the trenches forever
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May 5, 2022 20:50
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"Thanks to yours truly, me that is..."
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May 5, 2022 21:01
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Sekenr posted:Lukashenko is a very simplistic man when it comes to media. Like Putin he doesnt use internet and gives no fucks about consistent messaging. AP is western media so he gives a message he thinks to west will like. Should he talk to RT he will froth at the mouth about being together with Russia in the trenches forever Well, yes. But it's also believable that Lukashenka really feels the war has gone too far and is now damaging the truly vulnerable innocent victim: yours truly, me that is.
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May 5, 2022 21:04
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Dammit there's a UN Security council meeting about ukraine ongoing and I don't have my headphones  New ISW update - they do these periodically, they're more high-level and cover the trends of the last week or so. https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1522304955675254784?s=20&t=nIKQ3pngKi1PHRjBIbGeyg https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-invasion-update-25 It long so here are the highlights quote:Key Takeaways
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May 5, 2022 21:10
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Rookie mistake, creating too many puppets makes you exceed your diplomatic relations limit and causes an overall relationship penalty.
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May 5, 2022 21:13
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PerilPastry posted:Thought this was an interesting breakdown of Lukashenko's latest statements. He's probably nearly as sick of the war as the Ukrainians at this point: No, I'm pretty sure the people whose country is being invaded by an enemy who openly declare to seek the destruction of their cultural and national identity, and who are subject to massacres, looting, wanton destruction and deportation to 'filtration' camps, are quite a bit more sick of the war compared to a dictator who seems openly worshipful of the person who ordered this war to happen. I know you were probably being facetious, but the Ukrainians are far beyond being sick of the war. They're fighting an existential fight for survival and suffering through some pretty stark horrors. If there's one thing those of us in the rest of Europe must not forget, it is that this is not a symmetric war. This is a genocidal war of conquest - even if the aggressor failed spectacularly and is now trying to salvage territorial gains and scorching the earth from it. It is unequivocally a monstrous act of barbarism and criminal transgression against the fundamental principles agreed upon by the united nations. This rant is not targeted at you, but the fact that some countries and individuals fail to oppose and condemn the war should not blind us to what this war actually is. This war is the culmination of a long series of failures to reign in the Russian regime and Putin's insane campaign of subverting democracy, fermenting polarization and strife, waging wars of spiteful destruction and poisoning his country with revanchist nonsense. If Russia was not a nuclear power, any European country not intervening on the ground to defend Ukraine would be on the wrong side of history. Nuclear deterrence has facilitated war crimes and attempted genocide. I know this may sound rather hyperbolic, but this is not just a mirror of US military adventurism nor a natural consequence of a supposed (as if) great power feeling provoked by neighboring states seeking defensive alliances. This war is a regression to an age we should have left behind. Putin's invasion is a crime of historic proportions. Humor is a fine way to cope and I won't judge that, so this is not directed at you, but I really wish the people and leaders of Europe and the World would take this more seriously at a collective level.
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May 5, 2022 21:23
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Using chemical warfare as an attacker surely is a way to win the hearts and minds of the rest of the globe.
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May 5, 2022 21:23
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Burning_Monk posted:"Thanks to yours truly, me that is..."
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May 5, 2022 21:30
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They can create as many little puppet states as they wish and it will still amount to poo poo all for them.
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May 5, 2022 21:31
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Finland (and I'm guessing Sweden) are saying they think the NATO process is gonna go super fast - think months not years https://twitter.com/charlyjsp/status/1522221253293228032?s=20&t=nIKQ3pngKi1PHRjBIbGeyg quote:What we learned, however, is that after Finland announces its interest in joining the defense alliance, things will move quickly. 
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May 5, 2022 21:36
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Burns posted:They can create as many little puppet states as they wish and it will still amount to poo poo all for them. Pretty much, they are acting like the Ukrainians are going to suddenly go "OH NO! Legit people's republics, we're owned!" instead of just rolling through.
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May 5, 2022 21:37
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Der Kyhe posted:Using chemical warfare as an attacker surely is a way to win the hearts and minds of the rest of the globe. You sure? Using chemical weapons seems hella popular among certain elite online fraternities. Assad used chemical weapons on his own people and yet Assad has *huge* fans among the "Zelenskyy is a Nazi, Jews did the Shoah" crew. As a diehard Nazi, Zelenskyy is trapped after all. Trump's Press Secretary said: "You had someone as despicable as Hitler who didn’t even sink to using chemical weapons.". Q.E.D. and checkmate. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 5, 2022 21:38
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PederP posted:No, I'm pretty sure the people whose country is being invaded by an enemy who openly declare to seek the destruction of their cultural and national identity, and who are subject to massacres, looting, wanton destruction and deportation to 'filtration' camps, are quite a bit more sick of the war compared to a dictator who seems openly worshipful of the person who ordered this war to happen. I second this rant, and to add to this, I find it sickening that the Croatian president is trying to attach their political motivations - just or not - on the ticket that more or less will resolve if Finland or Sweden is the next one to suffer the same fate as Ukraine. Should this war end in a way that Putin survives, or someone from Putin's system rises to power, it will be only a matter of time when Gotland in Sweden, or Eastern Finland is the next target of the Russian expansionist wars to re-create their "empire". This isn't about fishing rights or emission standards, this is a war about right to exist.
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May 5, 2022 21:40
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Der Kyhe posted:I second this rant, and to add to this, I find it sickening that the Croatian president is trying to attach their political motivations - just or not - on the ticket that more or less will resolve if Finland or Sweden is the next one to suffer the same fate as Ukraine. Should this war end in a way that Putin survives, or someone from Putin's system rises to power, it will be only a matter of time when Gotland in Sweden, or Eastern Finland is the next target of the Russian expansionist wars to re-create their "empire". This isn't about fishing rights or emission standards, this is a war about right to exist. It's totally appalling and I imagine there will be some updates to the way NATO is run if his bullshit actually has a chance of derailing accepting these new members. The idea that one guy could undermine the alliance for some stupid reason is crazy.
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May 5, 2022 21:43
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CommieGIR posted:Pretty much, they are acting like the Ukrainians are going to suddenly go "OH NO! Legit people's republics, we're owned!" instead of just rolling through. It also devalues the annexation of Crimea and makes it less likely for Russia to be able to hold it in the end.
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May 5, 2022 21:44
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Burning_Monk posted:"Thanks to yours truly, me that is..." I wonder what the planet would look like if we stopped placing men who would've died of old age decades ago had it not been for statins in positions of power, over a world they can barely understand any longer.
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May 5, 2022 21:44
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KitConstantine posted:Finland (and I'm guessing Sweden) are saying they think the NATO process is gonna go super fast - think months not years RIP, another brave neutral nation falls to the NATO-IMC-Azov vassal system. Also, shame on Finland for electing so many nazis.
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May 5, 2022 21:46
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https://twitter.com/HeleneBismarck/status/1521805358615998464?s=20&t=HoAkWsjnklrt-N4H8ICBvQ Some pushback against German peacemongers. Scholz has already moved, but his dithering has made German society more divided on the war than it was at the start.
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May 5, 2022 21:48
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Willo567 posted:Why would the U.S. want to let Russia know this? Wouldn't that make Putin more likely to escalate? It would be nice if instead of a series of one sentence questions which is essentially all you ever post in this thread and others about world wide crisis you expanded upon your thoughts. How do you think they would escalate? Because they basically have no options that wouldn't immediately garner the US or someone else pushing their poo poo in. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 21:55 on May 5, 2022 |
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May 5, 2022 21:52
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KitConstantine posted:Finland (and I'm guessing Sweden) are saying they think the NATO process is gonna go super fast - think months not years Pretty sure plans for Finnish and Swedish wartime emergency admission is the kinda thing NATO would have in a folder somewhere.
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May 5, 2022 21:53
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Grab bag Orban stays bought apparently https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1522312460534964225?s=20&t=_MEJ77KWhcXzR3NlhZ-4UA Please please please do  https://twitter.com/BenHNoble/status/1522302725039472641?s=20&t=_MEJ77KWhcXzR3NlhZ-4UA Sure are seeing a lot more Ukrainian planes  https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1522300056572993538?s=20&t=_MEJ77KWhcXzR3NlhZ-4UA I am not immune to propaganda https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1522290532113952769?s=20&t=_MEJ77KWhcXzR3NlhZ-4UA
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May 5, 2022 21:55
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Chalks posted:It's totally appalling and I imagine there will be some updates to the way NATO is run if his bullshit actually has a chance of derailing accepting these new members. The idea that one guy could undermine the alliance for some stupid reason is crazy. I don't think he actually can block it. The memberships would have to be ratified by the Croatian parliament, which neither he or his party controls, but who knows.
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May 5, 2022 21:59
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MrYenko posted:Pretty sure plans for Finnish and Swedish wartime emergency admission is the kinda thing NATO would have in a folder somewhere. The FDF have been aiming towards 100% NATO compatibility from the 1990s onwards and have been training with NATO troops for a couple of decades now, Finnish "neutrality" and remaining outside NATO has always been a matter of domestic and foreign politicking. I think it's been clear to everyone for a long time now that the Finns have been ready to jump into NATO the moment the situation w/r/t Russia changed and the diplomatic corps and the FDF have been working for a good while now to prepare everything to make the process pretty much seamless. I would think all the relevant documents have been prepared and kept in a safe in Brussels to be pulled out at moment's notice.
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May 5, 2022 22:04
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I'm not immune to propaganda either. Back when Russia first took Crimea this band made this song : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KOXbzMRQHs&t=125s Who would've thought it was a prophecy!
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May 5, 2022 22:05
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Wildeyes posted:Please tell me he didn't actually speak the words "Thanks to yours truly, me that is" I specifically went to watch that, for your sake, and he says it full verbatim. In his defence, it's a reasonably alright phrase for a Russian-speaking dude of his age.
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May 5, 2022 22:06
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Are there any reasons to believe this time it’s actually white phosphorus and not some illumination crap or thermite or whatever else like every previous accusation of WP use this war?
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May 5, 2022 22:08
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https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1522287203304542209?s=21 Western leaders have been pushing heavily against a peace deal apparently, looking to achieve their goals against Russia with Ukrainian forces https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/5/7344206/ What's unclear from the article though is if Zelensky was considering talks at all FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 22:18 on May 5, 2022 |
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May 5, 2022 22:15
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Ynglaur posted:Well, it certainly looks like WP. Source: I've seen 155mm WP rounds explode. Our artillery battery used them in lieu of fireworks for 4th of July in Iraq back in 2003. They were set to detonate quite high up, wind was negligible, and they were fired over open desert. I see. I'd ask if those were the illumination rounds or something else, but that may not be the most tactful question. 
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May 5, 2022 22:16
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FishBulbia posted:What's unclear from the article though is if Zelensky was considering talks at all I mean: Why would he? Russia has shown talks mean nothing to them but to delay and confuse. Nobody believes the Russian diplomacy machine is willing to act in good faith.
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May 5, 2022 22:22
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Telsa Cola posted:It would be nice if instead of a series of one sentence questions which is essentially all you ever post in this thread and others about world wide crisis you expanded upon your thoughts. They’re using this thread as a bootleg therapist, and every single post is basically “tell me I shouldn’t be really worried about this”. Edit: Atreiden posted:I don't think he actually can block it. The memberships would have to be ratified by the Croatian parliament, which neither he or his party controls, but who knows. Supposedly he can cast his veto in person, and he’ll be attending a function in a month or two. I wonder if NATO simply can ratfuck him by having another session close by where PM represents the country or something. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 22:39 on May 5, 2022 |
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May 5, 2022 22:33
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