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mlmp08 posted:Are you making that argument literally or for dramatic effect? Literally. A lot of the oil price increase is around inflation fears topped by sheer profiteering around the Russian crisis, it has little to do with their actual imports delivered. In fact we're more impacted by the fact that the Saudis via OPEC are refusing to increase production as a favor to Russia rather than anything we actually import form them.
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May 10, 2022 16:54
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ZombieLenin posted:Sure, except the whole "let's not humiliate the Russians too much." Is "negotiated peace that does not embarrass Putin overly much" a Ukrainian notion of what the peace should look like or a French notion of the peace should look like? The statement refers to a post-peace agreement environment where Ukraine and Russia have negotiated an agreement. It is not intended to put pressure on either Russia or Ukraine, but represents a policy position within the EU. That's why it was part of the Conference on the Future of Europe at the European Parliament. To simplify, the USA and Germany are "let's go all Versailles on this bitch", and France said "Remember what happened last time?".
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May 10, 2022 16:54
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CommieGIR posted:The EU has been spearheading a lot of the action, I suspect they wouldn't change course even if we cannot get of Mr. Trump's wild ride. I think in general the EU (especially Eastern Europe) has a lot of will to resist, but a large portion of that is a net of support. Places like the Baltics are more than willing to provide support to Ukraine because they have the guarantee of NATO forces supporting them if anything were to happen. My question is if the US drops out of supporting Ukraine and Germany follows (they seem most resistant to support/least eager), what happens then? Do France and the UK look around and realize they're shouldering a lot of the burden and scale back? If some of these security guarantees for Eastern Europe become more questionable, do the Baltics focus on arming themselves rather than supporting Ukraine? Support so far has been strong because everyone is in this together, but what happens if that is threatened? Especially now that we're mid recession by most metrics and it's just beginning to get bad.
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May 10, 2022 16:55
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I think Macron makes a valid point that the end of this war is a matter that needs to be decided between the Ukrainian and Russia governments. Pressure from other countries to prolong the war because of a desire to humiliate Russia or further degrade its military represents a very real risk. I do not think attributing similar motivations to Ukrainian decision makers is particularly realistic after the losses they've suffered. Is there any historical parallel to expect e.g. holodomor recognition as a sticking point in negotiations? Somaen posted:The "humiliated revanchist Russia that's like Weimar Germany" was the last 30 years, not something that's at risk of happening in the future. We're right now at the "huge land war in Europe" stage and after that it's "do we deal with this like with Japan or Germany" probably Are you thinking invading Russia proper is the right way forward? Bombing Moscow like Berlin or Tokyo? Wars are defined by their limitations and the ability of the Russian military to kill imposes significant limitations on what actions can be taken.
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May 10, 2022 16:56
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Nenonen posted:Many goons sound admirably brave in defying even the notion of Ukraine negotiating with Russia. I'm sure this has nothing to do with that they and their families have nothing to lose if thousands more Ukrainians die in the war. Negotiate what exactly? With a country that renegged on multiple agreements to conduct this very special operation in the first place. Russia is also clearly not interested in negotiating in good faith if it feels spinning a possible second front in Transnistria is a good idea, and given that even Macron openly came out and said Russia's negotiations goals are just to frustrate and delay the Ukrainians, why would anybody believe there's anything to be gained in negotiating. The Russian's are murdering people for no other reason than to do so, under orders. How do you negotiate with that?
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May 10, 2022 16:56
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Antigravitas posted:No. It'll impact their ability to prosecute war, but ideology trumps material conditions, especially in an autocracy. L'État c'est Poutine. Historically, calling a convention to propose amendments to increasingly unworkable governing documents and then immediately hijacking the convention into writing a brand new governing document based on your personal Enlightenment fanfiction has been a pretty successful strategy. All we need now is a lovely bloc of countries whose support needs to be bought by adding extra racism and we'll be all set.
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May 10, 2022 16:56
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Nenonen posted:Many goons sound admirably brave in defying even the notion of Ukraine negotiating with Russia. I'm sure this has nothing to do with that they and their families have nothing to lose if thousands more Ukrainians die in the war. Who does that? I have only seen people being outraged at pushes to have Ukraine negotiate what it doesn't want (neutral status and giving up its army or whatever Russia was demanding last time)
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May 10, 2022 16:58
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CommieGIR posted:Literally. A lot of the oil price increase is around inflation fears topped by sheer profiteering around the Russian crisis, it has little to do with their actual imports delivered. In fact we're more impacted by the fact that the Saudis via OPEC are refusing to increase production as a favor to Russia rather than anything we actually import form them. So you are saying this conflict does in fact contribute to gas price increases.....
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May 10, 2022 16:58
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MikeC posted:So you are saying this conflict does in fact contribute to gas price increases..... Not in the way that loss of Russian imports is responsible. More in the way that profiteering in a crisis is just "Good business" in the US.
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May 10, 2022 16:59
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CommieGIR posted:Literally. A lot of the oil price increase is around inflation fears topped by sheer profiteering around the Russian crisis, it has little to do with their actual imports delivered. In fact we're more impacted by the fact that the Saudis via OPEC are refusing to increase production as a favor to Russia rather than anything we actually import form them. This is a far cry from your original claim of prices having "absolutely nothing" to do with Russia. You can see how profiteering, fear of doing business with Russia for feare of future sanctions, Saudis aligning with Russia, etc, are all related to the conflict in Russia and Ukraine? Every single expert on gas prices, the president, etc, all acknowledge that sanctions on Russia and the current conflict have an effect on gas prices. It doesn't have to be the number one driver of gas prices (that would be inflation and demand) for it to be a clear factor in gasoline prices rather than having "absolutely nothing" to do with gas prices.
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May 10, 2022 17:00
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ranbo das posted:Republicans win senate, start blocking bills with aid to Ukraine because of the recession and massive economic turmoil that is a couple months out. Why are we spending money on Ukraine with rising unemployment. I dunno, I get the stuff about Trump, but a lot of Republicans do not like Russia or Putin. I have a right-wing Congress critter who loves Trump and the dude has been talking poo poo about Putin and calling him a war criminal. I even have some big Trump fans in my family and, before all this, they were telling me they thought Putin could not be trusted. I told them I thought China was more likely to be a problem  Plus given the usual Republican love for the MIC... I have a hard time seeing this no matter who controls Congress.
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May 10, 2022 17:00
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MikeC posted:So you are saying this conflict does in fact contribute to gas price increases..... If you're being serious than that is a pretty dishonest read on what he said.
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May 10, 2022 17:00
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ZombieLenin posted:Sure, except the whole "let's not humiliate the Russians too much." Is "negotiated peace that does not embarrass Putin overly much" a Ukrainian notion of what the peace should look like or a French notion of the peace should look like? The point is that there is no reason in trying to pile additional hurdles to negotiations because it is difficult enough already. As satisfying as it would be to demand Putin to go to the Hague or demanding a full demilitarisation of Russia or just acknowledging that Putin is a poo head with a tiny wee wee, all that would do is unnecessarily lengthen the war for ego.
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May 10, 2022 17:01
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mlmp08 posted:This is a far cry from your original claim of prices having "absolutely nothing" to do with Russia. You can see how profiteering, fear of doing business with Russia for feare of future sanctions, Saudis aligning with Russia, etc, are all related to the conflict in Russia and Ukraine? Every single expert on gas prices, the president, etc, all acknowledge that sanctions on Russia and the current conflict have an effect on gas prices. It doesn't have to be the number one driver of gas prices (that would be inflation and demand) for it to be a clear factor in gasoline prices rather than having "absolutely nothing" to do with gas prices. Has far more to do with the Saudi's being upset at being snubbed by Biden than I suspect their love of Russia. But again: The price increases reflect more about profiteering and inflation than the actual crisis. Nenonen posted:The point is that there is no reason in trying to pile additional hurdles to negotiations because it is difficult enough already. As satisfying as it would be to demand Putin to go to the Hague or demanding a full demilitarisation of Russia or just acknowledging that Putin is a poo head with a tiny wee wee, all that would do is unnecessarily lengthen the war for ego. Again: What should Ukraine negotiate for? I agree, they won't get Putin at the Hague, but given Russia's apparent desire to go full ethnic cleansing if not genocide on Ukrainian territories, at minimum they should only negotiate if Russia does a full withdrawal of mainland Ukraine. Otherwise, why negotiate with a country that has repeatedly failed to uphold its end of any agreement to the point of invading you.
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May 10, 2022 17:01
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:If you're being serious than that is a pretty dishonest read on what he said. I dunno, I made a point of asking if maybe the below comment was just exaggeration for rhetorical sense, and he has doubled down on it being a literal argument, while simultaneously saying it's not true in his own post, so I don't know what point he's trying to get across. CommieGIR posted:The gas price has absolutely nothing to do with Russia though.
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May 10, 2022 17:02
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Nenonen posted:Many goons sound admirably brave in defying even the notion of Ukraine negotiating with Russia. I'm sure this has nothing to do with that they and their families have nothing to lose if thousands more Ukrainians die in the war. Well duh. Most people in here are just armchair generals, but we all know that. It's not new or surprising. Still doesn't change the fact that the only way ACTUAL, USEFUL negotiations can and will happen is if 1 of 2 possible things happen: Russia destroys Ukraine's ability to fight or Ukraine destroys Russia's ability to fight (or outlasts their ability to fight). That's it. Either way, there's a shitload of fighting that's gonna have to happen between now and then. Edit: Oh, you're kinda defending the "don't humiliate Putin" thing. I honestly don't think it factors in whatsoever in whether or not Putin decides to stop hostilities or negotiate in good faith. Europe going "lol gently caress you, you big stupid diaper baby" isn't gonna make him angrier, he's already all-in for a war for conquest. mutata fucked around with this message at 17:05 on May 10, 2022 |
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May 10, 2022 17:03
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mlmp08 posted:I dunno, I made a point of asking if maybe the below comment was just exaggeration for rhetorical sense, and he has doubled down on it being a literal argument, while simultaneously saying it's not true in his own post, so I don't know what point he's trying to get across. Let me rephrase: Nothing to do with Russia's oil exports or Russian directly. Everything to do with the usual Capitalism exploiting a crisis.
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May 10, 2022 17:03
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E Depois do Adeus posted:Are you thinking invading Russia proper is the right way forward? Bombing Moscow like Berlin or Tokyo? Wars are defined by their limitations and the ability of the Russian military to kill imposes significant limitations on what actions can be taken. No. I don't know what's going to happen, but some form of de-empirization in the long term is probably the only way to bring security and prosperity to the region, I don't know how and I'm glad it's not my job to figure out
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May 10, 2022 17:03
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CommieGIR posted:Has far more to do with the Saudi's being upset at being snubbed by Biden than I suspect their love of Russia. Of which there would be a lower amount of if there wasn't a Ukrainian war...the Saudis can't do Russia a solid if the fear over supply didn't occur in the first place... Just stop trying to double down on the overreach.
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May 10, 2022 17:04
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MikeC posted:Just stop trying to double down on the overreach. And I clarified. I think we can move on.
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May 10, 2022 17:05
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CommieGIR posted:The gas price has absolutely nothing to do with Russia though. lol what Russia's the second largest exporter of crude on the planet, and much of their export infrastructure is oriented west, towards Europe. A lot of barrels are being taken off the table. It's a cost we'll have to pay, and it's well worth it, but let's not pretend it doesn't exist.
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May 10, 2022 17:06
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Agronox posted:lol what To Europe, yes. They are like 4th or 5th to the US. 
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May 10, 2022 17:07
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Speaking of energy stuff - gas not oil tho https://twitter.com/olyatanas/status/1524050394237874177?s=20&t=MPX1FOuOEW1HVBzyekggWg https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1524034763304181761?s=20&t=22k3kLhzWFZln1A0CjvbVQ non-paywalled article: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityi...via-sokhranivka quote:...
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May 10, 2022 17:10
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CommieGIR posted:Let me rephrase: Nothing to do with Russia's oil exports or Russian directly. Everything to do with the usual Capitalism exploiting a crisis. This line of argument could lead to dismissing almost any policy on the planet as a Capitalism thing. I mean, true, the global markets are capitalistic, but reducing it to such broad stuff makes it so you can barely state that anything is related to any other thing without someone saying "look, it's just capitalism."
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May 10, 2022 17:12
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Nenonen posted:The point is that there is no reason in trying to pile additional hurdles to negotiations because it is difficult enough already. As satisfying as it would be to demand Putin to go to the Hague or demanding a full demilitarisation of Russia or just acknowledging that Putin is a poo head with a tiny wee wee, all that would do is unnecessarily lengthen the war for ego. Counterpoint would be that a lasting peace can only exist if the aggressor recognises their guilt. Dragging Putin to the Hague may be what is necessary to enable reconciliation. There can be no justice if we forgive without punishing. In that sense, it would be pointless and very “that’s capitalism!” for Western countries to fumble the ball in a postwar reconstruction process where Ukrainian revanchists will blow it all up in 2050 because Zelenskyy had to agree to an unjust peace or ceasefire while their family got deported and nobody ever wanted to push the Russian ego too much because we hoped to get back to business as usual faster.
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May 10, 2022 17:13
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mlmp08 posted:This line of argument could lead to dismissing almost any policy on the planet as a Capitalism thing. I mean, true, the global markets are capitalistic, but reducing it to such broad stuff makes it so you can barely state that anything is related to any other thing without someone saying "look, it's just capitalism." Yeah I'm sure an industry with a long history of exploiting crisis for their own gain wouldn't do so this time. Don't know what you are trying to argue here.
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May 10, 2022 17:13
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As a general barometer for supporting Ukraine, how much are everyone's friends and families still talking about the war? Nearly three months in, is it becoming background chatter, that "thing" going on over there, or are discussions on it being paired as frequently about talks about the weather? Are people still talking/doing about donations, yelling at their congresspeople/councilman?
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May 10, 2022 17:14
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We are not getting a just peace. There is a small chance of a peace that restores some of Ukrainian territory, and a high chance of Europe getting bored well before that and forcing a country that is in dire straits economically from the invasion to give up land and people to a genocidal dictator because they want to do more capitalism. Like what's the chance anyone in Greece gets punished for their sanctions violation?
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May 10, 2022 17:16
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CommieGIR posted:To Europe, yes. They are like 4th or 5th to the US. Yeah, but oil prices aren't "cheap in America, expensive in Europe." If Europe stops buying Russian oil, oil prices there will rise, tankers will go to Europe instead of the US (or even take US oil to Europe on free market principles), and oil and gas prices will go up in the US too.
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May 10, 2022 17:21
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CommieGIR posted:Don't know what you are trying to argue here. I think the war in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions and proposed future sanctions against Russia have had a significant impact on crude oil prices, worldwide. Beyond the sanctions, it has caused businesses to look toward suppliers who are not facing possible sanctions, to cut off future investment in what is an exceptionally volatile market or a country that could face infrastructure problems due to sanctions, and it has resulted in nations releasing strategic reserves to try to keep crude oil prices under relative control. I think the war in Ukraine and the economic actions taken against Russia have a pretty significant impact on the markets. I do not believe that it has no impact and that capitalists just up and decided to raise prices, divorced from the reality of the war and sanctions. I also think it's notable that Russia is a member of OPEC+ instead of just blaming Saudi Arabia's relationship with Biden for crude prices. There are other factors at play in gas prices and crude prices, but the war in Ukraine and the economic sanctions are a big deal, especially regarding short-term volatility. The market prices may well setttle in the long term and were already headed up due to increasing demand, inflation, pandemic production/shipping delays, etc, but yeah, I'd say this whole war thing and sanctions thing is a significant factor.
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May 10, 2022 17:22
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Deltasquid posted:Counterpoint would be that a lasting peace can only exist if the aggressor recognises their guilt. Dragging Putin to the Hague may be what is necessary to enable reconciliation. There can be no justice if we forgive without punishing. No lasting peace occurs only if you coopt your enemy's interest in the peace deal and make them your partner. The only other alternative is to so utterly crush them that the opposing state is no longer able to generate the political will or material resources to pursue the strategic interest which caused the war in the first place. A peace that does not resolve core issues or eliminate the opposition as a centre or power invariably risks reopening of hostilities when the loser recovers from its losses. Guilt as nothing to do with it because no one ever sees itself as being in the wrong. Whether you can prolong the war long enough to change Russia's centuries' long outlook on the "Near Abroad" is questionable since you aren't likely to drive tanks into Moscow and dismantle the Russian state.
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May 10, 2022 17:23
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Nenonen posted:Many goons sound admirably brave in defying even the notion of Ukraine negotiating with Russia. I'm sure this has nothing to do with that they and their families have nothing to lose if thousands more Ukrainians die in the war. I am not “defying” the notion of a negotiated peace. In fact, this is not a war where a dictated peace is likely possible; however, I do think that Western powers who were not invaded, and who are not fighting a war of survival, should keep their mouths shut about what an acceptable peace for Ukraine is. Ukrainians are the aggrieved party, Ukrainians are doing the fighting and dying, and it’s Ukraine that will have to pay for “not humiliating Russia too much.” Therefore, it is for Ukrainians to decide what the peace they will accept will look like.
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May 10, 2022 17:26
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ranbo das posted:The economic collapse leads to Trump 2024 who is already isolationist, he pulls all aid from Ukraine, reopens trade with Russia and pulls out of Nato. From there it's a coin flip what happens with NATO vs just the EU taking over.
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May 10, 2022 17:27
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MikeC posted:No lasting peace occurs only if you coopt your enemy's interest in the peace deal and make them your partner. The only other alternative is to so utterly crush them that the opposing state is no longer able to generate the political will or material resources to pursue the strategic interest which caused the war in the first place. Yes but when its an existential crisis against a country who is using mass murder to justify their actions to the point of ordering their troops to use it, resistance is really the only way to survive. There is no feasible negotiation when giving in will not result in thousands more dead regardless of lack of resistance.
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May 10, 2022 17:27
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OddObserver posted:We are not getting a just peace. There is a small chance of a peace that restores some of Ukrainian territory, and a high chance of Europe getting bored well before that and forcing a country that is in dire straits economically from the invasion to give up land and people to a genocidal dictator because they want to do more capitalism. Like what's the chance anyone in Greece gets punished for their sanctions violation? I mean, a peace right now wouldn't be just; a just peace would require the destruction of the Russian military first, because that's the only way Ukraine can be guaranteed safety. That said, Russia will collapse economically from this long before Europe does. America will probably drop out of this before Europe does, for that matter. We might elect Trump in 2024 but Germany and Poland and France are never gonna be comfy about Russia starting land wars against countries next door to them.
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May 10, 2022 17:32
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Donkringel posted:As a general barometer for supporting Ukraine, how much are everyone's friends and families still talking about the war? Nearly three months in, is it becoming background chatter, that "thing" going on over there, or are discussions on it being paired as frequently about talks about the weather? Are people still talking/doing about donations, yelling at their congresspeople/councilman? Can someone repost that poll re: Russia and Ukraine from earlier ITT? I'm cynical enough to think economic self-interest is going to eventually override solidarity with Ukraine if gas prices and inflation keep increasing, but that poll made me think that point is still a long ways off. CommieGIR posted:Again: What should Ukraine negotiate for? I agree, they won't get Putin at the Hague, but given Russia's apparent desire to go full ethnic cleansing if not genocide on Ukrainian territories, at minimum they should only negotiate if Russia does a full withdrawal of mainland Ukraine. I'm not even sure "should" enters into it. Do we really expect Russia to enter negotiations *in good faith* until they're driven back to their February 23 positions and are basically forced to seek some kind of negotiated settlement?
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May 10, 2022 17:33
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Maybe the mistake is France speaking about what Ukraine should do instead of giving them a platform to voice their own ideas.
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May 10, 2022 17:36
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Donkringel posted:As a general barometer for supporting Ukraine, how much are everyone's friends and families still talking about the war? Nearly three months in, is it becoming background chatter, that "thing" going on over there, or are discussions on it being paired as frequently about talks about the weather? Are people still talking/doing about donations, yelling at their congresspeople/councilman? Most of my friends and family never talk about it. I feel like I'm always the Debbie Downer who brings it up.
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May 10, 2022 17:37
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The theory that Putin plans on waiting out the sanctions seems like nonsense. The effect of these sanctions on the west are getting less with time, as alternative energy sources are established and output is increased elsewhere to meet demand. Trade with Russia was fairly minimal and the effects of that being gone will decrease with time too as companies adjust to deal with the situation. On the other hand, the short term effects of sanctions on Russia will increase dramatically with time. They'll eventually adapt to them, but that'll be on a multi-year timescale, long after the war is decided.
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May 10, 2022 17:41
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https://twitter.com/julianborger/status/1524038478761242624 How would Putin shooting a nuke help him win the war if he thought he was going to lose? And why do so many people think he'll do it if he thinks he's going to lose?
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May 10, 2022 17:44
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