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lilljonas posted:Yeah Sweden will probably join even if I'm not super happy about it myself. I don't see the need for it, and if there's a need for it, we can wait for the election this year to get a democratic mandate behind it. I mean you have not followed any news the last three months if you somehow believe that Russia would cross the Baltic Sea and successfully invade Stockholm within the next four months. But people are dumb and just today there was a retired major general going on in media about how you should keep supplies stored because you never know when Ivan's going to parachute into your backyard, god dammit. 70% of voters have been scared by... somewhat irrational news reporting about how much a threat Russia still is for Sweden, so every party that wants to do well in this year's elections are going to cheer for Nato membership. When the Russians are even on the planning stage of an invasion, it is too late. As we say in Finland, the poo poo is already in the pants. It will be too late to join NATO. I've watched the NATO discussion for a long time now in Finland, and it seems to follow this cycle: Scenario A - Peace, sunshine and mämmi: Why would we join NATO? It is very peaceful, what's the point? Scenario B - Cossacks taking anything not bolted down: Now is not a good time! Can't join NATO as it will only anger Russia. There will simply not be an opening like this for generations where you can join NATO with Russia distracted as this. Feel free to diskutera for years, I for one am glad that it seems like we will be joining while Russia is drowning in Ukraine. I hope Sweden joins too. I know NATO is not perfect, but take it from the people who have had to commit to much more unsavory alliances in the past to survive: Better NATO than dead. Granted, the security situation for Finland is different to Sweden's, but NATO brings protection from all kinds of unforeseen developments. You just can't foresee how Russia's capabilities and newfound fascist fervor will develop over the next 50 years. Russian fighter planes and submarines are remarkably much better at avoiding accidental incursions to Estonian airspace compared to Finnish.
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May 12, 2022 07:43
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Kallikaa posted:You can't become what you already are. This is so wrong it's not even funny.
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May 12, 2022 07:50
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To understand the Fin/Swe NATO discussion a bit better: there is broad popular support for it, but for many, it is not very enthusiastic. It is more of a pragmatic decision. Many many people who were in the "no" camp before February are now saying "Well, it sucks, but I guess we have to do it! The alternative is even worse." Obviously there is also a large number of people who have been pushing for it for 30 years who are ecstatic that its finally happening, but I don't think that is the majority.
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May 12, 2022 07:51
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Budzilla posted:I am not suggesting it will. I am suggesting it could have implications. What if NATO decided to build a huge naval base right next to Swedish borders or fishing grounds? Enact policies that indirectly an negatively effect Sweden such as limiting arms sales/research to non-NATO countries. All extremely unlikely. But I am just spitballing negative consequences for not joining NATO since we have a Swedish poster here who doesn't take into consideration not joining the alliance might have a negative impact on their country. There are multiple neutral countries in Europe who are entirely surrounded by NATO countries and none of these bad things have happened. Anyway I think there's been some underselling of just how unpopular the SWE/FIN past policy of 'we'll join NATO if we need it' would be if European countries populations caught on that that's what's been going on. 'We aren't going to stand shoulder to shoulder with you but we do expect you to come running for help if we call' places a really heavy bet that in an emergency no NATO leader would be under domestic pressure to say 'gently caress that, you made your choice to stand alone I'm not sending anyone to die for you'.
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May 12, 2022 07:53
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Herstory Begins Now posted:If Sweden doesn't join NATO they will be forced to become the 51st state of the USA Lol what. If that was the case it would be the most populated state in the US since everyone would be flocking there for the healthcare.
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May 12, 2022 07:55
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:This is so wrong it's not even funny. Naturally it's a joke, based on the Swedish obsession with all things american, I mean looking at swedish media today there's more reporting and analysis of wade-roe than there ever is about any European matter.
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May 12, 2022 07:55
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d64 posted:To understand the Fin/Swe NATO discussion a bit better: there is broad popular support for it, but for many, it is not very enthusiastic. It is more of a pragmatic decision. Many many people who were in the "no" camp before February are now saying "Well, it sucks, but I guess we have to do it! The alternative is even worse." This. I reckon probably half are super enthusiastic, while half think along the lines of "Well at least we aren't allying with the nazis this time"
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May 12, 2022 08:01
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Finnish prez and PM just issued a joint statement supporting NATO membership.
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May 12, 2022 08:03
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Sweden not joining now would put it in the uncomfortable position of being a free rider while everyone around them is shouldering the burden of collective defence against Russia. It would probably considerably lower Sweden's political standing among their neighbours and leave them out of very important deepening defence coordination.
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May 12, 2022 08:10
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Kallikaa posted:Naturally it's a joke, based on the Swedish obsession with all things american, I mean looking at swedish media today there's more reporting and analysis of wade-roe than there ever is about any European matter. Before Roe vs. Wade, Sweden was known as a place where Americans went for abortions or sex change operations (as they were known then). Well, that and dirty movies.
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May 12, 2022 08:15
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barbecue at the folks posted:Sweden not joining now would put it in the uncomfortable position of being a free rider while everyone around them is shouldering the burden of collective defence against Russia. It would probably considerably lower Sweden's political standing among their neighbours and leave them out of very important deepening defence coordination. Would it be a good comparison to Brexit and the EU? That was economic/political in nature rather than military, of course, but I get the sense that Sweden not joining NATO at this point would be similar WRT how other countries reacted.
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May 12, 2022 08:19
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Ulf posted:https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506167090819072 Thanks for this! I wanted to ask if there was a summary I had missed, because there were so many bits and pieces. But I guess it was still so fresh. Just amazing, what a hero. Add another one to the pile of "classic military moves that are usually told as success stories, but which the Russians hosed up spectacularly".
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May 12, 2022 08:26
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 Punaisella torilla tavataan
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May 12, 2022 08:26
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As a norwegian, Sweden and Finland joining NATO is extremely good news and improves our collective nordic defensive posture by orders of magnitude. While we have a kind a sorta mutual defensive understanding, NATO membership provides such a united capability it seems like the obvious short term answer to russian revanchist fascism.
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May 12, 2022 08:33
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According to the Swedish newspaper Expressen, we will be be applying for NATO on Monday: https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/planen-skicka-in-en-ansokan-pa-mandag/ quote:The government is holding an extra meeting already on Monday to make the formal decision on a Swedish NATO application. Immediately after the meeting, the application will be submitted, if nothing unforeseen occurs. Gejnor fucked around with this message at 08:52 on May 12, 2022 |
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May 12, 2022 08:42
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Geography game Wordle brings the 🔥 today
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May 12, 2022 08:53
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KitConstantine posted:And I hope that being uncharitable to others on a forum helps you feel better. I like to read everyones posts but sometimes the ignore button is a viable choice, i've used it twice so far. 
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May 12, 2022 09:02
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NATO flag is soo much better than my mushy 50 loving stars american one
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May 12, 2022 09:06
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Despera posted:NATO flag is soo much better than my mushy 50 loving stars american one It's very retro-future looking, I'll give it that.
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May 12, 2022 09:10
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What's with the floating hat.
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May 12, 2022 09:21
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Nice piece of fish posted:As a norwegian, Sweden and Finland joining NATO is extremely good news and improves our collective nordic defensive posture by orders of magnitude. While we have a kind a sorta mutual defensive understanding, NATO membership provides such a united capability it seems like the obvious short term answer to russian revanchist fascism. Same. Welcome, brothers.
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May 12, 2022 09:22
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KitConstantine posted:If you want a fictional low fantasy (kind of?) take - Sixteen Ways To Defend a Walled CIty by KJ Parker is really fun. The main character is Colonel of Engineers If you want cynical darkly-humourous pre-modern siege engineering porn, yeah, Parker is your man.
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May 12, 2022 09:23
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THE BAR posted:What's with the floating hat. That's what standard NATO issue cope cages look like. Very stylish.
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May 12, 2022 09:23
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Chalks posted:That's what standard NATO issue cope cages look like. Very stylish. Cope Cabana.
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May 12, 2022 09:28
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lilljonas posted:This is borderline scandi thread but basically we've been neutral for 200 years and looking back two centuries, that has been a good idea far more often than it has been a bad idea. Sweden's geographical position has meant that we've been less threatened, not more, by not being in a military alliance. Basically joining NATO is in certain ways (like in a theoretical nuclear conflict) draw more of a bullseye on us than if we stay neutral. Especially when Russia IS NOT a viable threat to Sweden now, far less so even than it was in February this year. The hurry is artificial and the threat is overblown. If we needed to hurry into NATO at any point it would have been in January this year, definitely not now. To pull out of the Scandi thread, on the Swiss side of things there's zero push here to join NATO now, because why bother? We're already surrounded by NATO (yes I know Austria isn't NATO, but then it's all NATO all around Austria) so being part of it won't protect us from any external threats. If I were Finnish I'd be all in on NATO right now due to Russian irredentism and desire to gently caress things up drat the consequences. From what I can understand for Sweden, the only theoretical Russian irredentist claim is on Bornholm, and .. what, maybe Aland and Gotland? Since the Russian navy is absolutely catastrophically bad and those regions are far from Russian territory (and thus difficult / impossible to use the mediocre Russian Air Force) there doesn't even seem to be any hypothetical risk, either now or 20 years down the line. Finland, different story since even if the Russian army also sucks, it's huge and can do a ton of damage. The only reason I can see for Sweden to join NATO is to feel like it can be part of the cool kids club, or because they want to protect Finland / the Baltics from Russia, and being in NATO would be stronger than being part of the EU and whatever other ad hoc defensive alliance. I haven't heard anyone, even from the furthest craziest leftwing fringes, actually think that NATO might invade Switzerland or Austria or Sweden.
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May 12, 2022 09:29
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barbecue at the folks posted:Sweden not joining now would put it in the uncomfortable position of being a free rider while everyone around them is shouldering the burden of collective defence against Russia. It would probably considerably lower Sweden's political standing among their neighbours and leave them out of very important deepening defence coordination. Considering historical connotations it would be very bad PR for Sweden to again put themselves into a position where Finns are the ones expected to die defending Sweden and its interests while they do the absolute minimum to help or defend themselves. Obviously while selling weapon systems and vehicle platforms to all parties who are wealthy enough to pay for them.
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May 12, 2022 09:37
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Saladman posted:To pull out of the Scandi thread, on the Swiss side of things there's zero push here to join NATO now, because why bother? We're already surrounded by NATO (yes I know Austria isn't NATO, but then it's all NATO all around Austria) so being part of it won't protect us from any external threats. If I were Finnish I'd be all in on NATO right now due to Russian irredentism and desire to gently caress things up drat the consequences. Yes the Clancychat version of Swe-Ru is a unprovoked and swift Russian invasion of Gotland to use it as a Snake Island vol II, basically. Not an invasion of the mainland. That's pretty much what pro-NATO people have used as the main argument for joining NATO the last 50 years. Given how things are doing on Snake Island, I am moderately scared. But yes, I'm completely convinced Sweden is going to apply to join NATO now. If Finland joins we're joining. I'm just not extremely thrilled about neither the process (or lack of it) nor everyone in the company we're joining. But it is what it is. My consolation is that it will make Putin angry.
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May 12, 2022 09:43
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Der Kyhe posted:Considering historical connotations it would be very bad PR for Sweden to again put themselves into a position where Finns are the ones expected to die defending Sweden and its interests while they do the absolute minimum to help or defend themselves. Obviously while selling weapon systems and vehicle platforms to all parties who are wealthy enough to pay for them. international relations are not a popularity contest haha.
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May 12, 2022 09:43
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Electric Wrigglies posted:international relations are not a popularity contest haha. Russia certainly agrees
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May 12, 2022 09:53
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Is there expected to be much pushback from other NATO members? I know Croatia might be digging their heels in, can a couple of member states hold the entire process up or would a majority of members pressure them until they agree?
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May 12, 2022 09:53
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gay picnic defence posted:Is there expected to be much pushback from other NATO members? I know Croatia might be digging their heels in, can a couple of member states hold the entire process up or would a majority of members pressure them until they agree? Erdogan hates Sweden because it has a history of being one of the main European defenders of the Kurd's right to exist. But I haven't heard much grumbling about it from them yet. NATO have been wanting Sweden to join for ages, so I'm convinced they'll strongarm any individual countries making a fuss. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 10:03 on May 12, 2022 |
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May 12, 2022 09:59
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Saladman posted:To pull out of the Scandi thread, on the Swiss side of things there's zero push here to join NATO now, because why bother? We're already surrounded by NATO (yes I know Austria isn't NATO, but then it's all NATO all around Austria) so being part of it won't protect us from any external threats. If I were Finnish I'd be all in on NATO right now due to Russian irredentism and desire to gently caress things up drat the consequences. It's fair enough to not join NATO, but if you want to help make the world a better place, you really really need to stop banking for all the criminals of the world. I'd like to see some tougher stance against Switzerland in this regard when this poo poo is over. Ola fucked around with this message at 10:08 on May 12, 2022 |
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May 12, 2022 10:03
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Between this and the story about him urging the Ukrainians not to negotiate and warning that the west might not be willing to join Ukraine at the negotiation table, my grudging respect for Johnson's handling of the crisis is kind of being eroded: https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/1524654662854524930?s=20&t=UsyhWYV2ybfCyq7QWmRfMA I mean other than the satisfaction of giving vent to your righteous indignation what's the benefit of making such a statement? If you're not going to signal a willingness to gradually ease sanctions and normalize relations contingent on a peace settlement to Ukraine's satisfaction what's tp incentivize Russia not to keep doubling down. Or am I misreading things? Is it less a statement on actual policy regarding negotiations, potential sanctions relief etc. than a personal comment on Putin having made himself persona non grata and being unlikely to ever be invited to a state dinner again?
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May 12, 2022 10:05
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Putin is going to have an interesting week trying to respond to Finnish Nato application with credible show of force when every capable battle group is off fighting in Ukraine. I hope Ivan and Oleg are prepared for a camping trip to the Finland-Russia border.
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May 12, 2022 10:09
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PerilPastry posted:
1. It's the simple drat truth, well founded in good principles. 2. It gives support to those who want to topple Putin, which one of only two ways this ends, the other one being Putin dies of natural causes pretty soon.
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May 12, 2022 10:13
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Anything Bojo does is for domestic reasons. His domestic calculus may lead to desirable things, but more often than not it doesn't. Do not mistake him for a man taking any kind of principled stance on anything. You do not, as they say, have to hand it to him. That's irrespective of the Reuters headline, which I wouldn't trust to be an accurate representation of what was actually said in any event.
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May 12, 2022 10:13
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lilljonas posted:Erdogan hates Sweden because it has a history of being one of the main European defenders of the Kurd's right to exist. But I haven't heard much grumbling about it from them yet. NATO have been wanting Sweden to join for ages, so I'm convinced they'll strongarm any individual countries making a fuss. Turkey is currently sitting on an economic crisis that dwarfs Russia's (and one entirely caused by Edrogon being an idiot about interest rates). They are not in a position to play strong man if America starts to flex some economic clout on the issue.
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May 12, 2022 10:15
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Bug Squash posted:Turkey is currently sitting on an economic crisis that dwarfs Russia's (and one entirely caused by Edrogon being an idiot about interest rates). They are not in a position to play strong man if America starts to flex some economic clout on the issue. Yeah that's how I read the situation too, Turkey is in the middle of a crash that gets worse on a daily basis. They're not very well suited to make demands on anyone right now.
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May 12, 2022 10:17
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PerilPastry posted:
My secret conspiracy theory of why Boris Johnson has turned up the hardliner rhetoric on Russia is that he is secretly ashamed of how poorly Brexit has been going and he blames Putin for manipulating him and planting the idea in his party's collective conscious, and wants to get back at Putin in any way possible.
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May 12, 2022 10:19
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WaltherFeng posted:Putin is going to have an interesting week trying to respond to Finnish Nato application with credible show of force when every capable battle group is off fighting in Ukraine. Other than doing some field exercises near the border, my guess is they're going to loudly declare the Baltics no longer a nuclear free zone (i.e. they'll finally cop to the missiles they've had in Kaliningrad all along.) https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1673659/lithuanian-officials-puzzled-by-russia-s-threat-to-deploy-nuclear-weapons-in-kaliningrad
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May 12, 2022 10:19
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