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Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
:prepop:
https://twitter.com/ArifCRafiq/status/1526986351823970304
Source is TSN
https://tsn.ua/glamur/cholovik-kamaliyi-pridbav-dva-vinischuvachi-dlya-ukrayinskoyi-armiyi-2064715.html

Need more sources to confirm
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1526906128168325123

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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Is this now an Indian vs Pakistan proxy war? loving lmao.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Rust Martialis posted:

Yes you predicted it over and over, wrongly, for years.

They were right when it counted and mattered. Besides, Russia has been invading Ukraine for eight years already. If they were saying it years ago then they're still not exactly wrong.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Ah his unnamed famous wife.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

unnamed famous wife were great in succesful movie.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Russia will nuke Sweden if it joins NATO.


Wow wee scary stuff can you see how terrified I am? Man we should all lay down and let Russia turn our country into the Sochi Olympics

stop shitposting, thanks


also goes for other posters

Shibawanko
Feb 13, 2013

Phlegmish posted:

I do wonder to which extent his previous appearance was orchestrated as well. Surely they must have known about his views before they invited him to the show, so did they purposefully allow him to say what he said, the gist of which they could have easily anticipated? I have no idea why they would do this, but I also don't know why they would host a reasonable-seeming known dissenter otherwise.
to prepare the public for the idea of defeat maybe? i agree that its weird

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

mobby_6kl posted:

Is this now an Indian vs Pakistan proxy war? loving lmao.

Even if true, probably not. First off, it's a random rich dude not the Pakistani government. Second, even if Ukraine loses it doesn't materially hurt Pakistan or help India, while throwing in with Russia definitely could create some lasting problems for India. India is going to sit on the fence for this one, as is the Pakistani government.

I could definitely see Pakistanis being sensitive about "SPHERES OF POWER" and the neighborhood fascist power invading and genociding their smaller neighbors, though, given their proximity to both India and China.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 22:32 on May 18, 2022

William Bear
Oct 26, 2012

"That's what they all say!"

Discendo Vox posted:

And another:

quote:

“I pulled it out of my rear end for that post,” she told me. “And then, when they were scraping together verbiage for Putin’s speech, they picked it up.”

It's nice to know that other countries have a shitpost-to-head-of-state pipeline.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527036470019629058?s=20&t=spKmX8wR1sDE470MpQqd-w

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1527002958596124674?s=20&t=spKmX8wR1sDE470MpQqd-w

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527034138972372993?s=20&t=spKmX8wR1sDE470MpQqd-w

Ulf
Jul 15, 2001

FOUR COLORS
ONE LOVE
Nap Ghost

Risky Bisquick posted:

I'm not aware of where the 300 number came from, anyone else with other sources?
Sounds likelier that someone played the telephone game with “cargo 300”.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

I'm pretty sure every NATO country is just taking this chance in the spotlight to air out their grievances before the US gives them all stern looks and a cookie to get back in line. The issues all seem so petty compared to the peer land war in Europe

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
In an alternate universe, the Ukrainian government designates tracts of its northern border as the new location for foreign embassies. The US stations an MEU to guard its embassy, which curiously sits astride the road from Kyiv to Minsk.

Inepta Lacerta
Nov 20, 2012

.
Really quite silly indeed.


Isn't this just Milanovic doing Milanovic things with no political mandate whatsoever? Because it seems awfully familiar, fairly sure he's said this before and been rebuked.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Orthanc6 posted:

I'm pretty sure every NATO country is just taking this chance in the spotlight to air out their grievances before the US gives them all stern looks and a cookie to get back in line. The issues all seem so petty compared to the peer land war in Europe

Turkey is important enough from the bosphorus, Middle East Central Asia force protection/relations and having an actual army instead of just being completely under the French/British/American umbrella that they might actually get what they want. Especially since it wouldn’t be that politically difficult for Finland or Sweden to throw the Kurds under the bus.

loving lol that Croatia thinks they’re important enough to demand another country get a completely new constitution

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Inepta Lacerta posted:

Isn't this just Milanovic doing Milanovic things with no political mandate whatsoever? Because it seems awfully familiar, fairly sure he's said this before and been rebuked.

It is, he doesn't have the power to actually stop it or order the permanent representative to do it.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Typically, Marines are not there to "protect" the embassy, or personnel, but to protect the classified material. And they are interior personnel only, behind a so-called "hard-line". Exterior of the hardline is a local force responsibility. DS will be there to liaise with the local force commanders.

In any event, once an embassy is "abandoned", it will take quite some time and expense to recertify for the typical suite of classified communications that State uses so a USMC presence is not justified.

Also, their presence is always a joint agreement between USMC and State, and one of the partners, hopefully both, wisely wishes to avoid any headlines involving US military personnel, so good on them preempting that kind of bullshit.

(I had the same job Vilerat did, and got out some time ago).

Kallikaa
Jun 13, 2001

Risky Bisquick posted:

Yeah, I wasn't trying to single you out, but Hospitallers generally became just a volunteer EMS brigade, with guns, now afaik. If anyone has sources otherwise I'd like to know because I sometimes donate money to them. It would be good to know in advance before I end up funding ultra nationalists :v:

Well, Dmytro Yarosh is a ultra nationalist, he ran on a unity list with Svoboda, Right Sector and National Corps in the 2019 parliamentary election:
https://m.glavcom.ua/country/politics/yarosh-tyagnibok-bileckiy-taki-sformuvali-jediniy-spisok-na-vibori-600508.html

And he promoted the founder of the Hospitallers, Yana Zinkevych to deputy commander of the UVA.
https://bigkyiv.com.ua/nardepka-yana-zinkevych-stala-zastupnykom-komanduvacha-uda/

So guilt by association? Maybe, it seems Ukrainians value NGO's over the state and the various volunteer battalions got a lot of clout from fighting in the Donbass. People might just join them because they see them doing something not for their ideology, which the Hospitallers funding pages are silent on.

Ultimately it's something you have to decide for yourself preferably after finding some Ukrainians who could share their views.

Kallikaa fucked around with this message at 23:29 on May 18, 2022

Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

loving lol that Croatia thinks they’re important enough to demand another country get a completely new constitution

Any organizations that require ALL members to agree on something before anything happens are dumb and unscalable by design. They work fine when it's a group of 5 friends doing stuff together, but when it gets to 15+ members it's a degenerate blackmail mill, with random nobodies who joined recently demanding payments, or else they grind everything to a halt. NATO should have always been 3/4th vote required for new members.

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


Rad Russian posted:

Any organizations that require ALL members to agree on something before anything happens are dumb and unscalable by design. They work fine when it's a group of 5 friends doing stuff together, but when it gets to 15+ members it's a degenerate blackmail mill, with random nobodies who joined recently demanding payments, or else they grind everything to a halt. NATO should have always been 3/4th vote required for new members.

I would agree in general but 3/4 vote for new members doesn't really work in the context of a defensive military alliance.

Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

WarpedLichen posted:

I would agree in general but 3/4 vote for new members doesn't really work in the context of a defensive military alliance.

It would be as existing members are always allowed to leave prior to new members being ratified. Croatia is free to leave the alliance if they don't want to defend Finland.

Akratic Method
Mar 9, 2013

It's going to pay off eventually--I'm sure of it.

Any day now.

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

loving lol that Croatia thinks they’re important enough to demand another country get a completely new constitution

They're not wrong that now, when the US really wants something from an organization that requires unanimous consent, is the only time they'll ever really have serious leverage over America. I don't personally expect it to be enough leverage, but it's a high-water mark on their chances for sure.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Rad Russian posted:

They work fine when it's a group of 5 friends doing stuff together

Your point is well taken, but even in a small group of reasonably like-minded people you occasionally need to tell someone, "well, tough poo poo, four of us want this and you ain't standing in the way."

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


As someone mentioned on a previous page, Turkey will get help to curb hyperinflation and their economic crisis which benefits Erdogan's stranglehold on power. Though there's no predicting how emboldened Erdogan might be now.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527054605007331329?s=20&t=8uRjICwkDfMMIi0WJrKB6Q

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Nenonen posted:

Ah yes, the navy's land force's air defense branch.

And yet people are claiming Russia is incapable of mastering combined arms operations

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

Shes Not Impressed posted:

As someone mentioned on a previous page, Turkey will get help to curb hyperinflation and their economic crisis which benefits Erdogan's stranglehold on power. Though there's no predicting how emboldened Erdogan might be now.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527054605007331329?s=20&t=8uRjICwkDfMMIi0WJrKB6Q

The only solution to hyperinflation is rational economic policy, which is a bit of a user problem for Turkey. A US aid package won't solve the issue, its almost by definition a problem you can't spend yourself out of.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Shes Not Impressed posted:

As someone mentioned on a previous page, Turkey will get help to curb hyperinflation and their economic crisis which benefits Erdogan's stranglehold on power. Though there's no predicting how emboldened Erdogan might be now.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527054605007331329?s=20&t=8uRjICwkDfMMIi0WJrKB6Q

i mean yeah, i think the war probably hits a slow state mostly centered around Donbass until the Russian army slowly cracks and America/west pumps money in.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

Paladinus posted:

Kasparov definitely knows a thing or two about alternate history.

There are so many conspiracy theories that make me just go...why? Who will possibly get anything out of this? What ideological goal or purpose is possibly being gained out of espousing this line if thinking? Like at least Hollow Earth theory or QAnon are exciting and weird and let you attack your enemies as blood-drinking underworld pedophiles "actually all of antiquity happened in middle ages" is just...what?

DarkCrawler fucked around with this message at 00:37 on May 19, 2022

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

DarkCrawler posted:

There are so many conspiracy theories that make me just go...why? Who will possibly get anything out of this? What ideological goal or purpose is possibly being gained out of espousing this line if thinking? Like at least Hollow Earth theory or QAnon are exciting and weird and let you attack your enemies as blood-drinking underworld pedophiles "actually all of antiquity happened in middle ages" is just...what?

Some people just desperately need to be different and be the fringe iconoclast who know the real truth. It's not that bad to always have a few crazies going against the status quo of any field, sometimes they're right or bring up new ideas that lead to good thing. Stuff like plate tectonics was regarded as a totally insane fringe crackpot theory. But of course for every "maybe plate tectonics?" there's 1,000 "what if hollow earth reptoids??" so I don't know if the progress is worth it actually.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

DarkCrawler posted:

There are so many conspiracy theories that make me just go...why? Who will possibly get anything out of this? What ideological goal or purpose is possibly being gained out of espousing this line if thinking? Like at least Hollow Earth theory or QAnon are exciting and weird and let you attack your enemies as blood-drinking underworld pedophiles "actually all of antiquity happened in middle ages" is just...what?

With regards to the New Chronology at least, the claim there is "ACTUALLY the world used to be dominated by a Russian-based superempire until it collapse and its enemies in the West rewrote history entirely to make themselves look good and to write out the glory of ancient/medieval Russia, and because it actually happened relatively recently that means we're actually not far removed from the days when Russia dominated all of Eurasia!"

It seemed like a silly nationalist wacky belief when I first heard about it. It's rather less zany-sounding now.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Tomn posted:

With regards to the New Chronology at least, the claim there is "ACTUALLY the world used to be dominated by a Russian-based superempire until it collapse and its enemies in the West rewrote history entirely to make themselves look good and to write out the glory of ancient/medieval Russia, and because it actually happened relatively recently that means we're actually not far removed from the days when Russia dominated all of Eurasia!"

It seemed like a silly nationalist wacky belief when I first heard about it. It's rather less zany-sounding now.

This seems to be common for so so many countries. From Korea to Hungary to Albania, just about every culture has some fringe group that believes with absolute certainty that their people once dominated the whole earth or were some great empire that put Rome to shame, or actually they invented everything and all culture flowed from them. It's way more common in countries with huge chips on their shoulder though.

Wildeyes
Nov 3, 2011
So why did Putin decide to invade Ukraine during the Biden administration? Well, according to a former National Security Council advisor, because he got sick of explaining geopolitical issues to Trump and thought it would be easier to negotiate with someone who knew basic poo poo about the world.

quote:

Russian President Vladimir Putin often became frustrated with President Donald Trump over his lack of knowledge on geopolitical issues, Fiona Hill said, adding that this played into Moscow's decision on the timing of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

One of the reasons Putin invaded Ukraine with President Joe Biden in the White House was that he expected the US to "sue for peace" and thought it would be better to deal with Biden than trying to negotiate with someone like Trump, whom the Russian leader had "to explain everything to all the time," Hill, who served as the top Russia advisor on the National Security Council under Trump, said Tuesday at a Chicago Council on Global Affairs event.

"He thought that somebody like Biden — who's a transatlanticist, who knows all about NATO, who actually knows where Ukraine is, and actually knows something about the history, and is very steeped in international affairs — would be the right person to engage with," Hill said.

Not sure how true this is, but it does make for a funny headline.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

DarkCrawler posted:

There are so many conspiracy theories that make me just go...why? Who will possibly get anything out of this? What ideological goal or purpose is possibly being gained out of espousing this line if thinking? Like at least Hollow Earth theory or QAnon are exciting and weird and let you attack your enemies as blood-drinking underworld pedophiles "actually all of antiquity happened in middle ages" is just...what?

If you read his writing about it its clear he just thinks he's much smarter than every historian. Literally "The Romans produced a lot of Iron, how could they do that before blast furnaces, invented in the 15th century?" Or my favorite, "roman soldiers could not have marched 20 miles in 6 hours without Schwarzenegger like bodies"

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Map time
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1527076765008543745?s=20&t=p97Rdn_BEj-jMJGbWaf3Vg
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1527076785007087616?s=20&t=p97Rdn_BEj-jMJGbWaf3Vg
Big push out of Popasna :(
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1527066040345120769?s=20&t=p97Rdn_BEj-jMJGbWaf3Vg
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-18

quote:

The Kremlin may hope to offset the loss of revenues from Azovstal and other destroyed infrastructure in Ukraine by profiting from the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant that is forces have seized. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin announced that he will allocate maximum integration assistance for Zaporizhia Oblast to work in a “friendly Russian family” during his visit to Melitopol on May 18.[4] Khusnullin added that the Zaporihia Nuclear Power Plant will exclusively work for Russia and will sell electricity to Ukraine.

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces are continuing to inflict air and artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant, indicating that a remnant of Ukrainian defense is still in the plant despite evacuations over the last few days.
  • Russian occupying authorities are reportedly planning to level the Azovstal Steel Plant after completing its capture, which directly undermines the large strategic economic importance of capturing the plant.
  • Russian forces continued to prepare for an assault on Severodonetsk and intensified operations around Lyman.
  • Russian forces continued to prioritize holding positions around the Russian border to prevent further Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv City and will likely continue to do so at the expense of deploying additional reinforcements to other axes of advance.
  • Russian troops focused on maintaining their positions on the Southern Axis and on conducting rocket, missile, and artillery strikes along the frontline.
...
Russian forces intensified shelling and conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Popasna in preparation for the Battle of Severodonetsk.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attempted to advance southwest and north of Popasna, but could not seize access to highways to Bahmut and Lysychansk.[14] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that Russian forces are increasing aviation support for ground troops in Luhansk Oblast.

...
Russian forces continued efforts to prevent a further northward advance of the on-going Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv City on May 18. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian troops took control of Dementievka, about 10 kilometers south of Russian border, and that Russian forces are fighting in Ternova, 5 kilometers south of the Russian border.
...
Russian forces did not conduct any ground assaults in southern Ukraine and carried out shelling and reconnaissance of Ukrainian positions.[28] The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration noted that Russian forces began reinforcing troops for an offensive from the southeast on Orikhiv—a settlement approximately 80 kilometers from Zaporizhia City.[29] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces are fortifying in depth in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts.


I'll be interested to see how ISW covers the Popasna moves tomorrow. They tend to be behind by 6-12 hours on things

Also ISW changed their font on the website and it's weird

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Wildeyes posted:

So why did Putin decide to invade Ukraine during the Biden administration? Well, according to a former National Security Council advisor, because he got sick of explaining geopolitical issues to Trump and thought it would be easier to negotiate with someone who knew basic poo poo about the world.

Not sure how true this is, but it does make for a funny headline.

i wouldn't be fully shocked if that's partly true. i think while Putin views trump as useful idiot who helps smash down a rivals government/society through stupid insane bullshit but trump is unreliable as gently caress, like he could go along with it and smile vagantly as Ukraine dies or he could over react the other way and drop a nuke on moscow.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


Popasna push looks like it could become A Problem.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Morrow posted:

The only solution to hyperinflation is rational economic policy, which is a bit of a user problem for Turkey. A US aid package won't solve the issue, its almost by definition a problem you can't spend yourself out of.

I'm pretty sure that Erdogan believes that 0% central bank interests are the only solution to inflation as an article of faith. Whereas even the hardline clerics of Iran went "Turns out the Qu'ran doesn't say anything about high-complexity international finance", Erdogan appears to think any interest rate is literally Satan.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Russia will nuke Sweden if it joins NATO.


Wow wee scary stuff can you see how terrified I am? Man we should all lay down and let Russia turn our country into the Sochi Olympics

Is anyone sure Russia even has functional nukes at this point given how bad everything else has gone?

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

aphid_licker posted:

Popasna push looks like it could become A Problem.

What I'm finding odd is that when I look on FIRMS there's hardly anything around Popasna/that side of the front. Tons around Izyum, a lot up north/east of Kharkiv, but relatively low frequency/density around Popasna in the last few days/week

I wonder if both sides have lower artillery density around there due to the fight closer to Izyum? I dunno

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Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Is anyone sure Russia even has functional nukes at this point given how bad everything else has gone?

It’s best to assume they all work, otherwise you get into Clancy chat like first strike which is pants on head stupid.

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