|
slidebite posted:Gah. Airfares are such a poo poo show. THe nice thing about COVID is I didn't need to go anywhere. Fuel is super expensive right now, everyone is traveling (hello Summer!) and airlines don't have enough staff to run their full schedules for the busiest season of the year (the aforementioned Summer). All of that meets supply and demand economics and we get where we are right now in a general sense. Additionally, airlines are constantly monitoring and updating prices to maximize their yields and Halifax doesn't get that much service (supply) so the high demand for that market means high prices. You can also read the OP here for my longer soliloquy on this topic.
|
#
?
May 19, 2022 23:30
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 9, 2024 23:49 |
|
|
Ola posted:The number 1 reason for ticket prices going up is that tickets are being bought. Beef Of Ages posted:Fuel is super expensive right now, everyone is traveling (hello Summer!) and airlines don't have enough staff to run their full schedules for the busiest season of the year (the aforementioned Summer). All of that meets supply and demand economics and we get where we are right now in a general sense. Additionally, airlines are constantly monitoring and updating prices to maximize their yields and Halifax doesn't get that much service (supply) so the high demand for that market means high prices. It's almost cyclical with major (60-70%) swings every week or two. It's not like a week ago (end of the last dip) that SURPRISE the flights are selling out - they're not. This is for the exact same date range (Sept 10-20) and the flights are almost empty. It's also not like a bunch of flights were taken away from the schedule either constricting supply of seats. Fuel has been stupid for several weeks now (including when the last dip happened) and, although I have no way to know this obviously, I doubt there is a mass resignation of staff planned for the end of August that they just learned about last week, but what do I know. I would really be interested in a deep dive on the subject. I do have a bit of a formal education that touched on economics (basic stuff, mid level micro and macro) but for the life of me I can't wrap my head around the things like this - they seem detached from supply/demand. I get the high/low season demand and fixed cost fluctuation as well, but these are for the exact same dates with fluctuations of $1K up/down, repeatedly, over weeks. I totally expect it to go down again in the coming week or so. Or maybe it won't? Who knows.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 00:24
|
|
|
slidebite posted:You'd think - but the odd "spot check" I did on flights show them, literally empty. I think I saw 1 flight with 8 seats booked. But I will totally admit I didn't exhaustively look at all flights, all airlines. Airlines spend lots of money to build models to maximize revenue, and that includes targeting many different markets (business, holiday, last minute) to at the maximum price they’re willing to pay and capture surplus value while loading the plane as full as possible, and they can look at historical data. People get their Econ PhDs in this.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 00:42
|
|
|
ThisIsJohnWayne posted:And a (R)-aligned talking head on cable news incl Fox. His content is good generally, but he is a big R republican, albeit not deep red Maga his story about almost getting court martialed for repeatedly going on fox news and being introduced as active duty so and so after he kept telling the producers not to do that was really funny though dude believed what tv news producers told him and then just kept on touching the stove after he got burned twice
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 02:53
|
|
|
slidebite posted:You'd think - but the odd "spot check" I did on flights show them, literally empty. I think I saw 1 flight with 8 seats booked. But I will totally admit I didn't exhaustively look at all flights, all airlines. You need to pay extra to select a seat with cheapest fares on most airlines, those 8 seats probably just represent 8 airline credit card/frequent flier status holders.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 03:08
|
|
|
You can be sad that a cool plane has been destroyed and horrified by civilian deaths. It ain't a zero sum game folks. Also please don't call russians orks. Its weird and gross. Plus it misses the obvious zed option.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 03:24
|
|
|
Who's Zed?
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 03:41
|
|
|
in a well actually posted:Airlines spend lots of money to build models to maximize revenue, and that includes targeting many different markets (business, holiday, last minute) to at the maximum price they’re willing to pay and capture surplus value while loading the plane as full as possible, and they can look at historical data. People get their Econ PhDs in this.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 04:14
|
|
|
stealie72 posted:Who's Zed? Zed's dead, baby.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 04:20
|
|
|
slidebite posted:I find it kind of fascinating. I'm sure I don't have not the slightest clue with the method behind the apparent madness but it interests me. Pretty much all the majors are using an algorithm to adjust prices on a minute by minute basis, and a non-zero number of airlines also adjust based on who is buying, where they can get that information. If you’re logged into Facebook and you open a new browser tab to buy a ticket, you can bet your rear end that there is a chance the airline is going to pay the Zuck his pound of flesh and get your marketing data so they can further refine the price. Amusingly, because the process is so automated, COVID broke it BADLY. In the beginning of lockdowns, the algorithm panicked, and the missus and I picked up round trip tickets from KFLL to PAJN (presently ~$2k per seat) for $125 a seat. Volume crashed hard, and the software tried to fill the airplane anyway. We didn’t end up getting to actually use those tickets, but it was fun getting one over on the algorithm.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 13:07
|
|
|
slidebite posted:I genuinely appreciate what you are saying, and I did take a look at your link, but airline prices don't seem to follow a typical supply/demand curve, and I am genuinely curious as to why this happens. Fair question; the stuff I wrote in that other post is targeted at the average traveler who has, shall we say, a limited desire to delve deep into all the nerdy bullshit behind it so that's where I normally start.  Both in a well actually and MrYenko hit on the important bits: airlines are increasing their use of machine learning powered by models designed by teams of evil druids that comprise the data science staff of the airline's Revenue Management department. No mere mortal understands the dark arts of Revenue Management. In essence, fare pricing really does try to follow a supply and demand curve but the difference here, and why you see such wild swings in some markets, is due to the models (some of which are adaptive in nature) actively seeking to prove what the peak price should be in a given market rather than being purely reactive to the market forces as they exist in the real world. Back in the day, a GDS was updated three or four times per day because it was a batch-based manual process that required specific orchestration to accomplish. Now all of the GDS providers offer APIs that airlines can use to programmatically update the GDS with the latest pricing off of a given model run for each market. If you take a market and complete a model run, the model suggests propensity to buy fare X for a given type of consumer, which in this example is Y increase in price. In addition to price, it's also important to consider the added complexity of the varying fare buckets and rules associated to each one. The fare you see advertised is one of 30 or 40 different fares spread across each cabin type that have pricing, availability, and channel variables that vary from market to market, as well as the aircraft type and layout, etc. Those are all constraints and data points that have to be considered in the model. Once computed, the updated fare(s) are put into the market (via GDS update) to test whether or not the Y delta in fare price actually works in the market. If sales drop off, that data is taken into account for the next model run and you may well see a price decrease. If sales stay steady or increase, that data is also taken into account and fares may increase even more as the goal is always to maximize the yield of the fare. These models can run (and most likely are running) constantly and the GDS updates occuring in sync with each of those model runs. The fun happens when there isn't much data to go on or something super wonky happens as in the case MrYenko noted when the pandemic shut down travel. As any good model is wont to do, odd things happen when the data is either in low supply, low quality, or has a significant or anomalous aberration like the pandemic. For markets without a lot of supply, the pricing floor the models are working with will generally be higher because of those common supply/demand economics. There's also the ability for the business to essentially put their finger on the scale or override the models to achieve a given outcome. Anyway, I'm not an expert in data science, revenue management, or anything other than posting on the Internet so please don't take what I'm saying as gospel about any specific airline. In general, though, I think most of them are operating in a somewhat similar fashion.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 14:14
|
|
|
Nothing stopping you from calling the airline directly and saying "here's what I'm willing to pay, I think it's fair since it's around what I've paid before so I know you're still making a profit. You can either take my money now or bet a plane full of people are going to pay $1200+ Canuckbux per seat."
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 16:13
|
|
|
Wendover did a video on ticket pricing a few years ago. I think he has some industry experience. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72hlr-E7KA0 I think the biggest challenge here is flying to Halifax. Had to look up where that was. I can't imagine it's a frequent tourist or business destination so you get little competition and high prices. Then they'd occasionally have a sale or promotion that you're seeing there. I don't think an actual algorithmic pricing would come up with prices as stable as those though, but it's really  for anyone outside the industry.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 16:16
|
|
|
BIG HEADLINE posted:Nothing stopping you from calling the airline directly and saying "here's what I'm willing to pay, I think it's fair since it's around what I've paid before so I know you're still making a profit. You can either take my money now or bet a plane full of people are going to pay $1200+ Canuckbux per seat." lol
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 16:20
|
|
|
nobody wants to fly anymore
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 16:21
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 16:22
|
|
|
Who grafted a pre WWII wing on this thing?
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 16:23
|
|
|
So if y’all can’t get upgrades via status because they have figured out how to dynamically price premium seats and/or upgrades, does that change the perspective of the average frequent traveler or business traveler who has control over what airline to take? At that point it’s probably just take whatever airline is most convenient for times / connections? Just curious what the draw is if the carrot of a free upgrade is largely not there or taken up by people who spend 18k+ a year. Earlier boarding and lounge access if you do a lot of international travel I suppose?
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 16:28
|
|
|
The algorithm still does fucky things because travel didn't snap back to the previous normal. Recently booked AUS-ATL-RIC and first class was about $30 per person more than the comfort economy seats + baggage fee. I guess the algorithm is milking vacation travelers who are "splurging" on the upgraded economy seats for their first trip in a while but don't think to check first class prices, and business travel is still anemic.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 16:29
|
|
|
I keep thinking back to that "it's all painted rust" quote from The Good Shepherd. "IS JUST TEST ARTICLE," I can hear the Russian stans yelling in YouTube comments.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 16:29
|
|
|
sellouts posted:So if y’all can’t get upgrades via status because they have figured out how to dynamically price premium seats and/or upgrades, does that change the perspective of the average frequent traveler or business traveler who has control over what airline to take? I'm in the $18K+ bucket (    ) but I think for a lot of people one of the big benefits is what happens when poo poo goes wrong. Then I guess being able to take the kids to Disney or whatever more cheaply is still a factor.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 16:33
|
|
|
I think a lot of airlines have fingers crossed for a huge travel boom this summer and are starting high. If they don't fill up, prices will drop closer to the travel. If they do fill up, prices will go more up. I have two trips planned this year, both by car.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:00
|
|
|
cargo cult stealth aircraft
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:10
|
|
|
Ah poo poo that reminds me, I need to go ahead and buy tickets for my wife, mother-in-law, and tiny baby to fly across the country. RIP to the people sitting near them. (fingers crossed that I can find a flight late enough that he will just go to sleep and wake up in Seattle)
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:11
|
|
|
Ola posted:I think a lot of airlines have fingers crossed for a huge travel boom this summer and are starting high. If they don't fill up, prices will drop closer to the travel. If they do fill up, prices will go more up. I have two trips planned this year, both by car. I bought tickets to Sri Lanka for June for like $100 before poo poo really started entering the Cool Zone there. That was my summer travel plan lol.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:15
|
|
|
Su-27 with a body kit.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:16
|
|
|
FrozenVent posted:The biggest airplane was destroyed. 
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:41
|
|
|
This is amazing work. As a student of aviation I can say that I’ve seen hundreds of pictures like this, and have shown little to no emotion. The pictures were just windows to aircrafts I’ve never flown in, airports I never knew or would ever know. But this picture made me stop and evaluate. Putting Fluttershy in made me actually look at what is really happening. Putting something that everyone is familiar with in a situation that no one knows, and to make people feel those emotions well, that takes amazing talent. Thank you.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:41
|
|
|
Is that to scale?
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:45
|
|
|
Cojawfee posted:Is that to scale? The horse is closer to the camera, it's just a optical illusion
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:50
|
|
|
Elmnt80 posted:You can be sad that a cool plane has been destroyed and horrified by civilian deaths. It ain't a zero sum game folks. Also please don't call russians orks. Its weird and gross. Plus it misses the obvious zed option. I don't know, holding two ideas at the same time, even when those two ideas don't even conflict? Seems like a stretch.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:50
|
|
|
Barcley posted:The horse is closer to the camera, it's just a optical illusion The pony is small. The plane is far away.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:59
|
|
|
KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I'm in the $18K+ bucket ( I mean yeah, me too, but is middle level status with 90% less upgrades worth the blind-ish allegiance? Do you really get “when poo poo goes wrong” service at that level and is that worth it when you take the upgrades out? I’m a total outlier along with you. When I had platinum a decade+ ago and exec plat was seemingly unobtainable I still knew I was seeing more upgrades then than exec plats on many routes today are, which is (at least partially) excellent RM by the airlines. Ola posted:I think a lot of airlines have fingers crossed for a huge travel boom this summer and are starting high. If they don't fill up, prices will drop closer to the travel. If they do fill up, prices will go more up. I have two trips planned this year, both by car. Purely anecdotal but on the 8 flights with 4 class, F was booked out 6+ months in advance for 3 of them and another 2 have F0 with 2-6weeks out. For premium availability at least, the lack of availability is kinda nuts. My clients are feeling the pinch to book earlier than ever. But again, extremely niche and anecdotal. sellouts fucked around with this message at 19:21 on May 20, 2022 |
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 19:16
|
|
|
Barcley posted:The horse is closer to the camera, it's just a optical illusion Today I learned about angular diameter distance and how really distant galaxies actually start looking bigger again the further away/older they get, because when their light was emitted the universe was drastically smaller and the galaxies physically took up more of the sky, so it's possible that is a thirteen billion year old horse at the edge of the observable universe
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2022 03:34
|
|
|
Cojawfee posted:Is that to scale? The quote, or the photo?
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2022 05:32
|
|
|
Barcley posted:The horse is closer to the camera, it's just a optical illusion Had a buddy coworker who used to say, “optical conclusion”, which I always hear now. Every single time. He was a good guy. That’s all I got.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2022 06:16
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2022 03:36
|
|
|
sellouts posted:For premium availability at least, the lack of availability is kinda nuts. My clients are feeling the pinch to book earlier than ever. But again, extremely niche and anecdotal. The airlines are trying to maximize their capacity factor because they have a serious flight crew shortage, which is causing cancelled flights all over the damned place. A buddy of mine (and fellow goon) was recently stranded in Atlanta by DELTA loving AIRLINES for two days because their CF on the ATL-MIA leg was at or near 100%, and then they took some flight cancellations on flights that were themselves booked solid. Getting stuck in Atlanta by DAL is like dying of hunger in a grocery store. Just like everything else on the planet, the just-in-time model is the cheapest, most efficient way of doing things, but it leaves you absolutely no breathing room when atypical events happen. Do we have any eurogoon airline pilots in here? Is poo poo better over there, or are ya’ll just as hosed?
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2022 14:59
|
|
|
MrYenko posted:The airlines are trying to maximize their capacity factor because they have a serious flight crew shortage, which is causing cancelled flights all over the damned place. A buddy of mine (and fellow goon) was recently stranded in Atlanta by DELTA loving AIRLINES for two days because their CF on the ATL-MIA leg was at or near 100%, and then they took some flight cancellations on flights that were themselves booked solid. Getting stuck in Atlanta by DAL is like dying of hunger in a grocery store. I'm sure US airlines will start crying about this shortly and demand another hojillion dollars of bailout money that they will use for stock buybacks.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2022 16:04
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 9, 2024 23:49 |
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:Wendover did a video on ticket pricing a few years ago. I think he has some industry experience. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72hlr-E7KA0 Halifax/YHZ is pretty much the "major" airport for going to the Atlantic provinces. It actually gets quite a bit of tourism, especially summer and into fall, and is the gateway to the maritime provinces. It's not Dulles/Frankfurt of course and probably only minimally serviced internationally, but it's serviced decently domestically. The problem/question I have isn't so much high prices it's the wild inconsistency and variation which is certainly not unique to that itinerary. As I showed in my imgs earlier the exact same flight fluctuates by 50% and goes up and down cyclically for the same dates/flights... although of course some dates are an even larger difference. For example, specific business class flight might be $1500 today, $2500 next week, and then back to $1500 the week after for the same date/flight and it happens repeatedly. That's just my puzzlement. I'm sure it has to do with absolutely maximizing profit as much as possible, but it just seems to counter intuitive.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2022 16:10
|
|