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ShadowHawk posted:Personally I find it fairly surprising that the 4 different Moscow's apparently have higher per capita death rates than elsewhere. Is it cause it's a younger region? Aren't the blues the lowest per capita rate? Am inreading this backwards?
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May 20, 2022 01:47
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Bel Shazar posted:Aren't the blues the lowest per capita rate? Am inreading this backwards? No, you're right. Moscow is the most populated region with some of the lowest per-capita deaths. Pretty much in line with what was previously reported about the composition of Russian forces.
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May 20, 2022 01:50
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Kazakhstan withdraws from the CIS agreement. Unclear if the withdrawal is merely from the tax agreement or from the CIS entirely. https://twitter.com/grushabrat1/status/1527260383043629056
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May 20, 2022 02:01
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the popes toes posted:Kazakhstan withdraws from the CIS agreement. Unclear if the withdrawal is merely from the tax agreement or from the CIS entirely. It's actually specifically about the CIS taxation agreement, which is not relevant anymore.
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May 20, 2022 02:11
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Herstory Begins Now posted:You appear to be reading it backwards. size=population, not casualties
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May 20, 2022 02:16
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Dapper_Swindler posted:ukraine will get hosed up badly but they will have most of the worlds countries tossing them money and rescourses so that they can recover and become some sort of European eastern power of some scale. the giant war will probably cause big national unity for at least a generation or two. I hope you're right, but I'm hesitant to hold my breath. The Marshall plan aside, the US isn't the only country that historically has a lot more willingness to pay for fireworks than to clean up the morning after. Imagine if we end up with Trump 2024: you know he'd ride in on a Ukrainian victory like he did it himself, but he'd immediately say, "You know what, they should pay US now!" to roaring cheers from the America First crowd. That said, a rebuilt Ukraine is in the best interest of the US and EU, and it's relatively cheap. That $40 billion aid package that the US just passed is about 25% of Ukraine's GDP if I've got it correctly, and about 0.2% for the US. They're hard to compare for a lot of reasons, but rich western countries can shovel a lot of cash by Ukrainian standards and barely feel it. If it happens, and it works, it might even make some sort of useful precedent for all the other poor countries that get wrecked by war and left in ruins.
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May 20, 2022 03:00
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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May 20, 2022 03:10
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the popes toes posted:Kazakhstan withdraws from the CIS agreement. Unclear if the withdrawal is merely from the tax agreement or from the CIS entirely. Kazakhstan to Putin: Come grasp the mighty penis of our leader.
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May 20, 2022 03:11
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Killer robot posted:I hope you're right, but I'm hesitant to hold my breath. The Marshall plan aside, the US isn't the only country that historically has a lot more willingness to pay for fireworks than to clean up the morning after. Imagine if we end up with Trump 2024: you know he'd ride in on a Ukrainian victory like he did it himself, but he'd immediately say, "You know what, they should pay US now!" to roaring cheers from the America First crowd. i mean i kinda think the war ends one way or another before 2024.
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May 20, 2022 03:49
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Well Ukraine has been planing for the rebuilding pretty smart by having countries and even cities within countries pledge to rebuild certain towns. The nationalism will make sure that things are taken care of and in many cases I am sure certain places won’t want to be shown up by their rivals. I have little worry that Ukraine is going to be rebuilt better after this is done. The question will be how long it is until that can start. Based on what we know I don’t think that Russia will be able to make it until the Fall. When the Summer comes and the mud dries I fully expect them to make a big, foolish push which will be the end of their ability to do much.
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May 20, 2022 04:28
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Regarding Ukraine rebuilding, it’s also important to note that there are gas and oil fields in areas which are currently not contested, and there is still a number of operable nuclear plants within the country. Ukraine has what Europe (and especially Germany) needs: energy. Ukraine is being rammed into the EU as quickly as possible, and Ukraine has already been put on Europe’s power grid while the war has been happening. Nobody is really saying this right now, but a busted up, but mostly intact Ukraine is going to be an insanely useful asset for the EU, especially if Russian gas and oil have a stigma attached them. For energy alone, massive amounts of investment capital are going to flow into Ukraine. Another more speculative thought I had is that after this war, Ukraine is going to be in desperate need of labor, and the other EU countries don’t seem very amicable to refugees. Ukraine might be able to generate a massive amount of capital by accepting refugees plus funds from other EU countries to support those refugees. We’ll see about this one, though.
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May 20, 2022 05:02
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Djarum posted:Well Ukraine has been planing for the rebuilding pretty smart by having countries and even cities within countries pledge to rebuild certain towns. The nationalism will make sure that things are taken care of and in many cases I am sure certain places won’t want to be shown up by their rivals. There is a bit of history of that in the country... Not too far from where I grew up in Odesa, a noticeable part of a block was taken by ruins of a large church. We knew it as "Kirha" --- I assume it's from German kirche --- it was a ruin into the 90s at least --- then some German people helped pay for rebuilding it. (article: https://odessa-journal.com/three-lives-of-st-pauls-church-in-odessa/ --- has pictures, though not of the ruins) Similarly, some Greek people helped renovate the Greek square in Odesa. (And there is a lot of Greek-related history in Southern Ukraine more broadly). OddObserver fucked around with this message at 05:06 on May 20, 2022 |
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May 20, 2022 05:03
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Chill Monster posted:Regarding Ukraine rebuilding, it’s also important to note that there are gas and oil fields in areas which are currently not contested, and there is still a number of operable nuclear plants within the country. Ukraine has what Europe (and especially Germany) needs: energy. Ukraine is being rammed into the EU as quickly as possible, and Ukraine has already been put on Europe’s power grid while the war has been happening. Nobody is really saying this right now, but a busted up, but mostly intact Ukraine is going to be an insanely useful asset for the EU, especially if Russian gas and oil have a stigma attached them. For energy alone, massive amounts of investment capital are going to flow into Ukraine. Wasn't it mentioned earlier in the thread that the amount of oil and gas that Ukraine could potentially summon out of their newly discovered reserves is very small compared to what Russia is supplying Europe with? I don't doubt that with Russia looking like an unstable supplier Ukraine would be welcome as an alternative source, but that's not quite the same thing as being able to fund the rebuilding of the country out of the proceeds alone.
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May 20, 2022 06:45
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Djarum posted:Well Ukraine has been planing for the rebuilding pretty smart by having countries and even cities within countries pledge to rebuild certain towns. The nationalism will make sure that things are taken care of and in many cases I am sure certain places won’t want to be shown up by their rivals.
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May 20, 2022 06:58
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Tomn posted:Wasn't it mentioned earlier in the thread that the amount of oil and gas that Ukraine could potentially summon out of their newly discovered reserves is very small compared to what Russia is supplying Europe with? I don't doubt that with Russia looking like an unstable supplier Ukraine would be welcome as an alternative source, but that's not quite the same thing as being able to fund the rebuilding of the country out of the proceeds alone.
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May 20, 2022 07:16
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The average European or American is not hurting from the sanctions on Russia. I doubt most people even notice them. Sure, if gas and oil comes into play there's gonna be a few uncomfortable months for some central/eastern european nations, but that's very much a solvable problem in the medium term. The sanctions as they stand can be kept up indefinitely, and I think it's much more likely that people will eventually forget they're even there.
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May 20, 2022 07:37
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Mr. Sunshine posted:The average European or American is not hurting from the sanctions on Russia. I doubt most people even notice them. Sure, if gas and oil comes into play there's gonna be a few uncomfortable months for some central/eastern european nations, but that's very much a solvable problem in the medium term. The sanctions as they stand can be kept up indefinitely, and I think it's much more likely that people will eventually forget they're even there. And if you hear British politicians complaining about it, that's almost certainly because of Brexit and little else. 
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May 20, 2022 08:06
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Chill Monster posted:Another more speculative thought I had is that after this war, Ukraine is going to be in desperate need of labor, and the other EU countries don’t seem very amicable to refugees. Ukraine might be able to generate a massive amount of capital by accepting refugees plus funds from other EU countries to support those refugees. We’ll see about this one, though. Thats an idea that’s nice in theory, but in practice only like 0.1% of refugees will accept resettlement in Ukraine. I mean they didn’t even accept being sent to Czech Republic or whatever, they sure as poo poo won’t accept a war-rebuilding Ukraine. Also Ukraine is not going to want to accept like a million foreign refugees either to rebuild their country, both out of pride and out of the same stereotype of not wanting "bad foreigners" there that Western Europe has, but in spades. Anyway it’s not like so many Ukrainians are actually being killed in this war that would affect their ability to do manual labor for reconstruction. I think the Paraguay war is like the only modern war that actually killed so many men that they literally weren’t able to reconstruct at all afterwards. In any case they would also need specialists which refugees will not be. They won’t need more guys that can lift bricks.
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May 20, 2022 08:06
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Killer robot posted:I hope you're right, but I'm hesitant to hold my breath. The Marshall plan aside, the US isn't the only country that historically has a lot more willingness to pay for fireworks than to clean up the morning after. yeah, the EU in particular has everything to gain from sucking ukraine directly in at the first available juncture and interlocking every neoliberal tendril they have to offer. (relatively) simple development could see them being a self-contained portion, in and of itself, of the plan to de-russify various economies
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May 20, 2022 08:21
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Kavros posted:yeah, the EU in particular has everything to gain from sucking ukraine directly in at the first available juncture and interlocking every neoliberal tendril they have to offer. (relatively) simple development could see them being a self-contained portion, in and of itself, of the plan to de-russify various economies What does "sucking in" mean? Granting Ukraine full EU membership is probably not a good idea, as the Ukrainian economy will (to put it mildly) not be competitive on the inner market, and the free movement of labour would probably cause a significant brain drain. You already see this in other Eastern European countries, all of which are much more wealthy than Ukraine. The EU doesn't work well with large internal economic differences. Rebuilding is not enough - Ukraine must progress significantly beyond its pre-war state before it can be fully integrated into the EU. The EU should certainly invest heavily in Ukrainian integration of some kind, but I have no idea what that should concretely look like. The Marshall Plan is brought up as an example, but I have no idea whether something like that would work for this specific situation. Athas fucked around with this message at 08:48 on May 20, 2022 |
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May 20, 2022 08:44
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Kavros posted:yeah, the EU in particular has everything to gain from sucking ukraine directly in at the first available juncture and interlocking every neoliberal tendril they have to offer. (relatively) simple development could see them being a self-contained portion, in and of itself, of the plan to de-russify various economies The EU isnt really neoliberal. It is a weird mix of German ordoliberalism, free-market capitalism and technocratic fund socialism - highly dependent on which aspect you consider (inner market, agriculture, regional developme t subsidies, etc.). But yes, the EU will absolutely want to start integrating with (and molding) the Ukrainian economy post-war. The biggest danger as I see it, is that the EU is actually pretty corrupt in some areas, and the risk of rebuilding money ending up being siphoned elsewhete but into the actual rebuilding effort, is very real. It will likely "just" be skimming off the top and not massive theft, but still it is not how Ukraine should begin integrating into the EU. I wish OLAF (EU anti corruption) had more teeth.
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May 20, 2022 08:47
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:
This really is the illustration of "Russia and Soviet Union, since the dawn of time". Practically 0 deaths for St. Petersburg or Moscow, otherwise poorer the region the worse it gets.
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May 20, 2022 09:15
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:
lmao @ chechnya
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May 20, 2022 09:51
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Kavros posted:yeah, the EU in particular has everything to gain from sucking ukraine directly in at the first available juncture and interlocking every neoliberal tendril they have to offer. (relatively) simple development could see them being a self-contained portion, in and of itself, of the plan to de-russify various economies I don't see the EU officially welcoming Ukraine in anytime this side of 2030; Romania and Bulgaria were enough trouble and they're still not even 'real' EU members (i.e. also in Schengen). Hell Croatia joined like a decade after them and it's just about to join Schengen, and the primary reason they took so long to join Schengen was because of the Dubrovnik Bridge, not like... whatever fundamental issues are keeping Romania and Bulgaria at second tier EU membership. Also remember those memes how Russia's economy is the same size as Benelux? Ukraine's economy is now the same size as just the "lux" part of Benelux (~€75bn/yr). Ukraine was crazy poor before 2014, and even worse now. Its GDP per capita right now is on par with like, Laos. And yeah there are things that are important besides GDP per capita, like having infrastructure -- but now their infrastructure ranges from "beyond hosed" to "even more stressed than before". Also speaking of Croatia, I've read quite a few news articles in the last couple weeks about Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and not a single one of them, ever, has mentioned Croatia's president trying to get leverage to do something about Bosnia's government. The only hurdle ever mentioned is Turkey.
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May 20, 2022 10:21
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:
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May 20, 2022 10:22
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Saladman posted:
Because the Croatian Parliment, which actually has the power to ratify Swedish and Finnish NATO membership, have stated they are in favor, and their presiden't doesn't really matter.
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May 20, 2022 10:25
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https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1527454308115042305 ??????
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May 20, 2022 10:39
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This is the real life equivalent of taking cover behind the red barrel. If I remember my highschool chemistry, you'd have to mix in an energy source before you have a actual explosive mix, but even still I wouldn't trust fertiliser with my life.
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May 20, 2022 10:44
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They did not understand what their CO meant when he wanted defenses that were "the bomb"
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May 20, 2022 10:44
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My biggest question is why? The only thing I can think of is that they raided near by farms that had a bunch already bagged up and they just figured fertilizer is close enough to dirt  .
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May 20, 2022 10:46
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Bug Squash posted:This is the real life equivalent of taking cover behind the red barrel. If I remember my highschool chemistry, you'd have to mix in an energy source before you have a actual explosive mix, but even still I wouldn't trust fertiliser with my life.
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May 20, 2022 10:49
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They should have sprayed the bunker with diesel to help the ammonium nitrate..... solidify.   
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May 20, 2022 10:49
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Reactive armor!
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May 20, 2022 10:50
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I kinda want to believe this is clever Ukrainian propaganda, but I know in my heart it probably isn't.
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May 20, 2022 10:53
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It's probably just bags labeled Ammonium Nitrate, and filled with sand. E: yeah took a closer look and it's ammonium nitrate 
alex314 fucked around with this message at 11:29 on May 20, 2022 |
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May 20, 2022 11:01
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I tend to dismiss most of the Russophobic commentary about how they're all orcs with a lust for death yadda yadda, but then you see some poo poo like this and  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 20, 2022 11:02
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Failed Imagineer posted:I tend to dismiss most of the Russophobic commentary about how they're all orcs with a lust for death yadda yadda, but then you see some poo poo like this and It's generally not assumed that it is their own death they are lusting for.
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May 20, 2022 11:06
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dr_rat posted:My biggest question is why? The only thing I can think of is that they raided near by farms that had a bunch already bagged up and they just figured fertilizer is close enough to dirt poor man's explosive reactive armor??
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May 20, 2022 11:07
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Nessus posted:My guess: A lot of places with six thousand natives and forty thousand Russians planted there by the Soviet Union who can't readily leave.
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May 20, 2022 11:14
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The insider reporting with a link to the rosneft press release site which is blocked for me https://theins.ru/news/251430 Google translate: The chairman of the board of directors of Rosneft, the former chancellor of Germany, Gerhard Schroeder, said "the impossibility of extending his powers on the board of directors of the company." This was reported on the Rosneft website. For the same reason, Matthias Warnig, managing director of Nord Stream AG, also left the board of directors. “PJSC NK Rosneft informs that Messrs. Gerhard Schroeder and Matthias Warnig have reported that it is impossible to extend their powers on the Board of Directors of the Company. Thanks to their strategic vision, vast practical experience, and deep understanding of the problems of the international market, they have made a significant contribution to the Company's international business. Their role in the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects in Russia and Germany aimed at increasing the efficiency of the German economy and its industry, and the well-being of its citizens is invaluable. We understand their decision and thank you for your continued support,” Rosneft said in a statement. 
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May 20, 2022 12:29
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