|
Saladman posted:I'm not an economist but it seems kind of overblown that it would affect Russia's credit in the long run (assuming this war ever ends), since the reason creditors aren't getting repaid is because the US won't let them get repaid rather than that Russia cannot or will not repay them. It very much means something in regards to denominating Russia debt in USD. If they had sold Ruble bonds this would not be a problem. Next time Russia wants to sell USD or EUR bonds, the market will remember this.
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 08:40
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 01:39 |
|
|
Saladman posted:I'm not an economist but it seems kind of overblown that it would affect Russia's credit in the long run (assuming this war ever ends), since the reason creditors aren't getting repaid is because the US won't let them get repaid rather than that Russia cannot or will not repay them. “Debtor nukes his credit lines for no real reason and misses payments we need” still does not reflect well on the debtor. Deltasquid fucked around with this message at 10:43 on May 25, 2022 |
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 09:49
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1529190946495250434
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 09:59
|
|
|
Deteriorata posted:A-10s fly very low and slow. They would last about 10 minutes before being shot down. They require air superiority to be useful. Ukrainians (and the rashists) are flying Su-25s which are basically the same thing, right now.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 10:57
|
|
|
Deteriorata posted:A-10s fly very low and slow. They would last about 10 minutes before being shot down. They require air superiority to be useful. Weren't they regarded as munition in themselves? As in they were never really expected to return from what ever hell of an european battlefield they were being thrown at in a hypothetical WW3 scenario. They were meant to plow through tank formations, but if you have tanks in formations, you sure as hell also have MANPADS capability. This idea might as well come from an early 90s wargame loading screen though.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 12:19
|
|
|
Trump posted:This idea might as well come from an early 90s wargame loading screen though. Read this thread with this playing in the background https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNf6dGBBBWs
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 12:33
|
|
|
Trump posted:Weren't they regarded as munition in themselves? As in they were never really expected to return from what ever hell of an european battlefield they were being thrown at in a hypothetical WW3 scenario. They were meant to plow through tank formations, but if you have tanks in formations, you sure as hell also have MANPADS capability. No. At the time of their design they'd have been up against stuff like the Strela-1 and Shilka. Neither of which were particularly capable, even if used competently. Pretty short effective ranges, easily spoofed/jammed, could only engage from the rear of the aircraft, and very small engagement envelopes for fixed wing aircraft even relatively low/slow like an A-10. Even into the 80's there were doctrinal changes in how they were used that would have made them more survivable. Stuff like operating very low, similar to the Su-25's still flying over Ukraine today against vastly more capable air defense systems. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 12:51 on May 25, 2022 |
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 12:43
|
|
|
Warbadger posted:No. At the time of their design they'd have been up against stuff like the Strela-1 and Shilka. Neither of which were particularly capable, even if used competently. Pretty short effective ranges, easily spoofed/jammed, and very small engagement envelopes for fixed wing aircraft even relatively low/slow like an A-10. The idea I got was that in a full on Fulda Gap/Northern Planes of europe/balloon gone up situation, there would be so much AA going through the air, that the numbers would make up for lack of capability, and since the A-10 was flying low and "slow", casualties would be atrocious. This really wanna make me play Desert Strike again (This also means I'll stop posted down this track) Trump fucked around with this message at 12:53 on May 25, 2022 |
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 12:50
|
|
|
Warbadger posted:No. At the time of their design they'd have been up against stuff like the Strela-1 and Shilka. Neither of which were particularly capable, even if used competently. Pretty short effective ranges, easily spoofed/jammed, and very small engagement envelopes for fixed wing aircraft even relatively low/slow like an A-10. A-10s were still expected to sustain massive losses in the event of a war with the USSR in Europe. The rough casualty rate was close to "there won't be any combat effective A-10 squadrons left after two or three weeks of war" IIRC.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 12:51
|
|
|
At the same time, this was before aircraft using the lessons learned in Vietnam had actually been leveraged against an IADS system as they eventually would be in conflicts like the Bekaa Valley air war, Desert Storm, etc. And even after these events nobody had specifically tested the Russian IADS capability, so it was still a big questionmark. It's a bad idea to underestimate the other guy, after all. Based on that sort of estimate, though, Ukraine as a whole should be a big no-fly zone for something like the Su-25 or TB-2. It's absolutely packed with the best medium and short range air defenses Russia has to offer, much of it under the umbrella of the super long range systems parked in Russia. And maybe it would be except the Russian and Ukrainian air defense troops just aren't doing things right.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 13:05
|
|
|
Warbadger posted:At the same time, this was before aircraft using the lessons learned in Vietnam had actually been leveraged against an IADS system as they eventually would be in conflicts like the Bekaa Valley air war, Desert Storm, etc. And even after these events nobody had specifically tested the Russian IADS capability, so it was still a big questionmark. It's a bad idea to underestimate the other guy, after all. I think some sprinklings of high tech warfare magic dust might help when it comes to the Ukrainians. We won't know what active measures they used until the war is over, but just having patriot systems light up randomly from Poland and Slovakia must be worth a nervous "heh".
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 13:13
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ljoliik/status/1529432118916526080
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 13:20
|
|
|
Time for all cirrhosis dads from garages to show how its done
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 13:25
|
|
|
"A note accompanying the proposed law read: For the use of high-precision weapons, the operation of weapons and military equipment, highly professional specialists are needed. Experience shows that they become such by the age of 40-45." https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f08e646defad8dc I guess this is why generals are always old as poo poo: Soldiers don't peak until they hit 60.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 13:28
|
|
|
Also this https://twitter.com/fa_burkhardt/status/1529417124221005824
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 13:29
|
|
|
Saladman posted:I'm not an economist but it seems kind of overblown that it would affect Russia's credit in the long run (assuming this war ever ends), since the reason creditors aren't getting repaid is because the US won't let them get repaid rather than that Russia cannot or will not repay them. I am not an international finance expert, but my understanding is that credit is not just used for when you don't have money, but as a means for facilitating easy cash flow and trade. You can have a lot of cash reserves, but without access to credit then trade becomes far more cumbersome. Imagine needing to take cash to the grocery store every day instead of using a card. It works, but each transaction takes a little longer. A-10 chat This war is getting a lot of strongly-worded opinions that [thing] is obsolete because [thing] can be destroyed. Yes, Su-25s and A-10s can be destroyed by MANPADs. Armored vehicles can be destroyed by hand-held ATGMs and precision mortar rounds and drones. Infantry can be destroyed by artillery. That doesn't mean these things are obsolete or useless. It's more an indication that modern high-intensity conflict is very, very lethal. Things get destroyed and soldiers die fast compared to previous conflicts. Part of this is also a reflection that the battlespace is far deeper than in the past. It's less a "front line" and more a "front area". One of the Modern War Institute podcast guests had a good point that if you're within about 60km of the "front line", you need to exercise significant noise/light/thermal/movement discipline because you're within range of multiple detection and precision strike capabilities. The cover and concealment discipline historically associated with infantry a few hundred meters from hostile forces now applies to e.g. fuel trucks 50km from the nearest hostile soldier. Trump posted:I think some sprinklings of high tech warfare magic dust might help when it comes to the Ukrainians. We won't know what active measures they used until the war is over, but just having patriot systems light up randomly from Poland and Slovakia must be worth a nervous "heh". It's unlikely Patriots will start lighting up radar. Because planes can't necessarily tell if a missile has launched, painting a combat aircraft with an air defense radar is less "I am pointing a gun at you" and more "I have fired a missile at you." It's a hostile act which the combat aircraft can and should treat as an act of war. Air defense forces can play dangerous games such as lighting up a radar for a few seconds and then shutting it down, but it's a game of chicken. The MWI had a good podcast on no fly zones which went into this in good detail. it's worth a listen if you're intersted in the topic.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 13:53
|
|
|
the popes toes posted:https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1529001729060126720?cxt=HHwWgICymZe-jbgqAAAA Uhh, has anyone told Ukraine about what Chomsky, Italy, Kissinger and all the other snivelling "give Putin what he wants" rats have been saying?  Anyone who isn't Ukrainian should just shut the gently caress up about what Ukraine should do; Unless they're willing and able to grant Ukraine territory in their own country equal to the area they're asking Ukraine to give up to temporarily appease Putin.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 13:54
|
|
|
Xachariah posted:
Realist explicitly do not care what people think and view popular opinion as a product of state actions, not its source.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 14:03
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Realist explicitly do not care what people think and view popular opinion as a product of state actions, not its source. Sure, but Heinz's own reasoning still sort of falls apart since Russia isn't really acting according to his own definition of 'legitimacy', i.e. the rest of the (Western) world powers do not approve of its actions.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 14:10
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:It's unlikely Patriots will start lighting up radar. Because planes can't necessarily tell if a missile has launched, painting a combat aircraft with an air defense radar is less "I am pointing a gun at you" and more "I have fired a missile at you." It's a hostile act which the combat aircraft can and should treat as an act of war. Air defense forces can play dangerous games such as lighting up a radar for a few seconds and then shutting it down, but it's a game of chicken. The MWI had a good podcast on no fly zones which went into this in good detail. it's worth a listen if you're intersted in the topic. So if you wanna test your radar at Raketentestgelände PerilPastry posted:"A note accompanying the proposed law read: Gonna be interesting to see how many dudes recruited under this are gonna be working missile experts and how many are gonna be Mosin Dude #42069 e: tbf there's plenty really old guys serving as Ukrainian army grunts afaict aphid_licker fucked around with this message at 14:21 on May 25, 2022 |
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 14:12
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:Also this The follow up tweet links an interesting article on how Russia uses passportization in it's foreign policy, starting in Georgia in the early 2000's https://twitter.com/fa_burkhardt/status/1529443968861224961?s=20&t=qnWnBQCZM_EipzCpRPodxg https://verfassungsblog.de/passportization/ quote:Conclusion
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 14:14
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:
I couldn't tell the difference between the emissions an old microwave and a can of beans, but the articles were followed by some tracks that showed large swathes of air space getting x-rayed. It was around the time the systems were being setup in Poland and Slovakia, which means it could have been a "we're are here now" type of thing.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 14:24
|
|
|
I think that a big reason why Russia is avoiding western Ukraine in general is to not tempt fate with NATO defenses.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 14:25
|
|
|
aphid_licker posted:So if you wanna test your radar at Raketentestgelände My understanding is that targeting radars are different than broad-sweep detection radars. Trump posted:I couldn't tell the difference between the emissions an old microwave and a can of beans, but the articles were followed by some tracks that showed large swathes of air space getting x-rayed. It was around the time the systems were being setup in Poland and Slovakia, which means it could have been a "we're are here now" type of thing. You seem to understand ADA stuff better than me, and your explanation makes sense. As a supplement to my earlier post around platform destruction, Bret Devereaux describes this idea far more eloquently and completely. https://twitter.com/BretDevereaux/status/1529169418051272708
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 14:38
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:My understanding is that targeting radars are different than broad-sweep detection radars. Yeah but the targeting radars are tested as well and I was curious how they do that, point them inland, pin a deconfliction notice in the international air defenses discord etc
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 14:43
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:A-10 chat I didn't say they're obsolete. They're fine at their job, but their job involves hoping they can bully targets that can't fight back, which is why a lot of Su-25s have been shot down on both sides. People want to see them BRRRTTTTTTing up undefended tank columns, and those are not always as undefended as they seem in Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 14:49
|
|
|
Djarum posted:I think that a big reason why Russia is avoiding western Ukraine in general is to not tempt fate with NATO defenses. I think that, and also they just had an object lesson on why fighting a war on multiple fronts is a bad idea.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 14:50
|
|
|
aphid_licker posted:Gonna be interesting to see how many dudes recruited under this are gonna be working missile experts and how many are gonna be Mosin Dude #42069 Ukraine has been invaded and declared total mobilisation. Their normal age range is 18-45, expanded to 18-60 for the war. Russia meanwhile is succeeding at all its goals at the planned pace, and is trying to scrounge up boomers in its pockets simply because someone did finally turn a missile battery monitor on.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 14:52
|
|
|
Edgar Allen Ho posted:Have we had a confirmed T-34 war memorial casualty yet I'm pretty sure there was one in the outskirts of Kyiv, earlier in the war. But it was technically a Ukrainian war memorial shot up by Russians.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 15:11
|
|
|
Lead out in cuffs posted:I'm pretty sure there was one in the outskirts of Kyiv, earlier in the war. But it was technically a Ukrainian war memorial shot up by Russians. Russia is going to deploy a pz IV to destroy the t-34
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 15:45
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1529423612217802753
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 15:46
|
|
|
Lead out in cuffs posted:I'm pretty sure there was one in the outskirts of Kyiv, earlier in the war. But it was technically a Ukrainian war memorial shot up by Russians. https://www.reddit.com/r/IdiotsFightingThings/comments/t2lyko/russian_troops_shoot_the_afghan_war_monument_in/
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 15:53
|
|
|
Warbadger posted:Based on that sort of estimate, though, Ukraine as a whole should be a big no-fly zone for something like the Su-25 or TB-2. It's absolutely packed with the best medium and short range air defenses Russia has to offer, much of it under the umbrella of the super long range systems parked in Russia. And maybe it would be except the Russian and Ukrainian air defense troops just aren't doing things right. SU-25s (both Russian and Ukrainian) are operating extremely low and often just dumping unguided rockets inaccurately in the vague ballistic direction of the enemy. It’s a clear indication of lack of freedom to operate effectively. Some teal galaxy brain Russia stans have declared this excellent CAS, but it just sucks for effectiveness. TB-2s have been shot down several times and do not have freedom to operate wherever they like. Even for helicopters, flying fast and low and avoiding SAMs and MANPADS is a good way to both be heavily restricted in attacks and also just fail to see the enemy as you fly right by them below treetop level. A lot of the Ukrainian helo footage lately has been from their own lines, dumping rounds beyond effective range via lobbing. The areas where Russians are pretty effortlessly slinging cruise missiles are either from Russian territory or captured territory or the sea.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 16:16
|
|
|
Apparently the situation in Luhansk is slightly better than reported yesterday - the highway isn't fully cut off Head of Luhansk region: https://twitter.com/serhey_hayday/status/1529465693904699403?s=20&t=4yCU2XgKdv5FiM_Vj22BJg Not sure if those T-62s are for reserves since apparently they've been geolocated to Melitopol https://twitter.com/kemal_115/status/1529478704749060100?s=20&t=4yCU2XgKdv5FiM_Vj22BJg this combined with the repeated reports I've seen that the Russians are massing forces in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast for another offensive push seems to imply that these are gonna be front line units.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 16:24
|
|
|
I mean nobody claimed that there was a Russian tank physically parked on it but I would not feel very comfortable driving down that road in a Kamaz full of ammo / fuel / troops e: The first confirmed T-62 kill popping up on Oryx is going to be a wtf moment
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 16:34
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1529475216606478336 Fresh Kofman thread on the current situation.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 16:38
|
|
|
Isn't the T62 equivalent/slightly better than a lot of the T72s they've been using? It's not like they are rolling out T54s
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 16:41
|
|
|
Alctel posted:Isn't the T62 equivalent/slightly better than a lot of the T72s they've been using? It's not like they are rolling out T54s No. You're probably thinking of the T64, which is/was superior to the original T72. The T72 was a less expensive MBT intended for export.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 16:44
|
|
|
Edgar Allen Ho posted:a ukrainian woman my wife met at church a lot recently, whose brother is in the army fighting and remains alive. Looks like I'm a terrible jinx, cuz turns out he was wounded pretty bad yesterday. Thankfully not dead or dying. Geroyam slava.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 16:47
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 01:39 |
|
|
mlmp08 posted:SU-25s (both Russian and Ukrainian) are operating extremely low and often just dumping unguided rockets inaccurately in the vague ballistic direction of the enemy. It’s a clear indication of lack of freedom to operate effectively. Some teal galaxy brain Russia stans have declared this excellent CAS, but it just sucks for effectiveness. Nobody said they were operating with total freedom. They're still operating and both sides are still hitting targets from the air in an area densely packed with Russian and Ukrainian air defenses.
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 16:57
|
|