ronya posted:

Today China hesitates to confront Taiwan too aggressively as the domestic conventional wisdom is that 1996 backfired and instead confirmed Lee Teng-Hui's localization drive through a landslide electoral victory

A blockade is unnecessary: the Taiwanese economy is itself enormously exposed to China. China can harass Taiwanese agricultural exports at present because it knows that farmers are a key swing electoral constituency, but this is a peacetime tactic. To really escalate a national crisis for Taipei, instead China could just completely obliterate Taiwanese industrial exports to China (drawing instead from, e.g., South Korea). It could ban China Airlines from its airspace and Taiwan-bound ships from its ports. It could annex Kinmen at its discretion at pretty much any time.

Beijing today possesses many options short of a wholesale invasion of Taiwan island that it does not use on Taiwan for fear of completely losing the possibility of an acquiescent (if grudging) reunification, like Hong Kong

Conversely Taiwan - being democratic - is in no position to coldly render, on rational strategic calculation, the really critical decision that would decide its fate: does it want to be Taiwanese, if it meant risking really significant costs in blood and treasure? The Taiwan electorate will decide that, and Beijing may do something so carelessly repellent that it may drive voters to do so even if it is not rational (to use that favourite word)

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/china-economy-covid-li-keqiang/

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

hes running

Tomn posted:

Regarding Taiwanese defense, my father was a conscript in the '70s and from what he said the whole experience was a mess of incompetence, nepotism, and on the whole pretty much a waste of time.

ronya posted:

Today China hesitates to confront Taiwan too aggressively as the domestic conventional wisdom is that 1996 backfired and instead confirmed Lee Teng-Hui's localization drive through a landslide electoral victory

Red and Black posted:

It's not just an island to them, it's connected to them by hundreds of years of history and represents the last part of their territory left outside their direct control

MikeC posted:

Regardless of one particular poster screeching about 50 years of preparation, the Taiwanese have a long way to go before they can say they have a competent plan of defense.

Despera posted:

Ukraine was dependant on the russian economy untill it wasnt.

Despera posted:

I actually mean 70 years (since the 50s). If its soo easy why hasnt china made an attempt pretty much ever?

(Also in the 70s the PLA was getting its rear end kicked by vietnam)

Stringent posted:

because china has very accurately gauged the winds of the world and realize that given the trajectory since the 70s, capturing the western manufacturing base and following that up with capturing increasing percentages of reserve currencies (you are here), will eventually result in taiwan begging to reenter china peacefully and orderly, as the US and europe's ability to project force and economic dominance fades.

in other words, why buy the cow when the milk is going to be free?

Despera posted:

I actually mean 70 years (since the 50s). If its soo easy why hasnt china made an attempt pretty much ever?

(Also in the 70s the PLA was getting its rear end kicked by vietnam)

MikeC posted:

I am not sure how to square that with the constant exercises which clearly are aimed to demonstrate its ability to coerce the Taiwanese into subjugation when the stated goal of such exercises are to cut off Taiwan.

Kalit posted:

Where are the statements from Amazon/Walmart stating they are overstaffed? Who is this random twitter account making this claim with a graph that only shows the total number of employees and no other context/listed sources?

Based on the name/symbol, I'm assuming it's a Qanon based twitter profile.......

Stringent posted:

because china has very accurately gauged the winds of the world and realize that given the trajectory since the 70s, capturing the western manufacturing base and following that up with capturing increasing percentages of reserve currencies (you are here), will eventually result in taiwan begging to reenter china peacefully and orderly, as the US and europe's ability to project force and economic dominance fades.

in other words, why buy the cow when the milk is going to be free?

Despera posted:

Us impatient westerners who cant see the 5d chess as the chinese carefully bide their time. The taiwanese will be soon begging to rejoin china!

We are 72 loving years in and reunifications polling at 10%. Problem with 100 year plans is a lot can happen in 100 years.

Also europe has been force projecting the south china sea for nearly 500 years

Tomn posted:

Genuinely curious how many examples there are of nations willingly choosing to integrate with another nation due to economic benefits/pressure. I'm having trouble thinking of many - maaaaybe German reunification but that's as much political as economic I would have thought. Seems like the Taiwanese economy being integrated with China doesn't mean much if it can reap those economic benefits while still maintaining political independence, and if China uses economic pressure tactics to force compliance that just ends up reinforcing the political argument that "China can't be trusted, if they're willing to act like this now when we still have some ability to resist how will they act when we're wholly under their thumb?"

Like, at the end of the day, what does Taiwan gain from integrating with China, and what does it lose? I'm not really sure that I see that there ARE many gains, especially since Beijing has demonstrated that at any time, as it desires, it could swing its dick around and wipe away whatever benefits were negotiated for by treaty. Meanwhile Hong Kong provides ample example of what will be lost. There's potential losses to be had from defying Beijing too hard, but that's not the same thing as gains from accepting its overlordship. The only reason I can see for Taiwan to agree to integrate is if the geopolitical situation has gotten to a point where it's absolutely certain that the West cannot and will not intervene in an invasion of Taiwan and it's absolutely certain that China would win such an invasion, and even then agreement would be grudging and I'd give it 50/50 whether they agree to integrate or just go full "It's all gonna burn anyways, Revolution of Our Times!"

I can sorta see how someone might have the idea that it's better to be on the inside pissing out than being on the outside getting pissed on, but you're gonna get pissed on by the guys at the top if you're on the inside anyways so why bother?

Tomn posted:

Genuinely curious how many examples there are of nations willingly choosing to integrate with another nation due to economic benefits/pressure.

eSports Chaebol posted:

Maybe Newfoundland counts? Or Texas? Not really analogous to how modern trade works but also it’s not just a dispassionate choice as much as seeing the proverbial writing on the wall, as it would be in this scenario with Taiwan.

quote:

On May 29, 1907, Ballard officially became part of Seattle. Ballard was the second-largest city in King County — with about 17,000 residents in 1906 — when troubles over the city's water supply led to a historic vote to become annexed by the city of Seattle.

https://www.seattle.gov/cityarchives/exhibits-and-education/online-exhibits/annexed-cities/ballard posted:

When the town incorporated in 1890, it had 1,636 residents. By 1900, its 4,568 residents made it the seventh largest city in Washington, and the population continued to boom, growing to 17,000 by the time of annexation in 1907. Growth was quickly overwhelming the city's ability to provide services, and a safe water supply was a continuing problem. In 1902, Ballard made an agreement with Seattle to tap into its water system, and was using more than 5 million gallons a year. This expenditure was adding to the city's debt, and many citizens believed that the city was becoming unable to sustain itself.

More than the other annexed cities, Ballard was divided on the issue of merging with Seattle. Indeed, in the first annexation vote in 1905, the citizens decided to remain independent. However, enough minds were changed 15 months later that annexation won out on the second vote. Ballard citizens showed their mixed feelings about the change by draping their city hall with black crepe and flying the flag at half mast on the day of annexation.

quote:

In the Republic of Ireland, the 66% backing a united Ireland in their lifetime increased to 73% if it meant paying less tax, but fell back dramatically to 31% if it meant more tax.

In Northern Ireland, the 30% supporting a united Ireland in the long term increased to 32% if it meant less tax, and decreased to just 11% if it meant more tax.

Tomn posted:

Genuinely curious how many examples there are of nations willingly choosing to integrate with another nation due to economic benefits/pressure. I'm having trouble thinking of many - maaaaybe German reunification but that's as much political as economic I would have thought.

ronya posted:

ronya posted:

https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1530488892755148801

Despera posted:

Not sure how one could be particularly bullish about the PRC given its a totalitarian dictatorship currently committing genocide.

quote:

Despite the new enthusiasm among China’s leaders aroused by the textile price example [liberalization of the price of cotton cloth and the rapid subsequent end to clothing shortages in 1983], which showed that people were prepared to accept price increases for some goods as long as the prices of close substitutes were falling, Wang warned that “in order to make reform safer, it should be avoided to make everybody feel the price reform.” (ibid.) For example, match producers had been recording losses for a long time. But everybody had to use matches every day for heating and cooking. Thus, even though matches appeared to be a small commodity, their price could not be raised without making people angry. Ma Hong, at the above-cited dinner, told Wood that people had grumbled when the price of high-quality matches was increased by 2 or 3 cents. [World Bank advisor Adrian] Wood scribbled in his notebook: “A communist dictatorship that cannot raise the price of matches by 2 cents.” The situation was different for products such as color TV sets. With these, one could have a sudden price liberalization, even at the risk of rising prices, without any larger consequence (ibid.).

A big flaming stink posted:

It's like to reiterate that I'm very grateful for your contributions to the thread, ronya. While I certainly disagree with your bearishness on the PRC's future, you always go to great lengths to source your arguments. My only regret is that I honestly lack the knowledge to engage with what you post, as it is completely outside my wheelhouse

u good poster

Despera posted:

Imagine getting fired for doing your job.

Not sure how one could be particularly bullish about the PRC given its a totalitarian dictatorship currently committing genocide. The "trains run on time" dissonance when it comes "its the economy not the uighurs, stupid" is also based on a lie. The ecomomic non effect of zero covid and a world wide recession can easily be falsified by photography. Satellite images show major slow downs in ports and construction sites. The mettics gotta be hit so pixie dust and fairy tales make up the economic reports. Then when the air of believability is gone fire some local officails for polishing a turd too well.

quote:

Pacific countries have declined to sign up to a sweeping regional economic and security deal proposed by China, after a crucial meeting of Pacific foreign ministers and their Chinese counterpart on Monday.

China’s foreign minister Wang Yi is in the middle of a marathon tour of the region, visiting eight countries in 10 days, a trip that security experts have said represents a dramatic “uptick in tempo” of China’s push for influence in the region.

On Monday, Wang held a virtual summit in Fiji with foreign ministers from Pacific countries at which the region-wide deal was discussed. Several invited nations want to defer action on the draft communique or have it amended, an official from one Pacific country told Reuters.

Wang urged the Pacific region not to be “too anxious” about his country’s aims after the meeting was unable to agree on the pact.

The deal, which was leaked last week, covers everything from a free trade area with the region to providing humanitarian and Covid relief. It also lays out China’s vision for a much closer relationship with the Pacific, especially on security matters, with China proposing it would be involved in training police, cybersecurity, sensitive marine mapping and gaining greater access to natural resources.

After the meeting – which included Samoa, Tonga, Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Niue and Vanuatu – Wang said the nations had agreed on five areas of cooperation but further discussions were needed to shape more consensus.

The five areas he listed included economic recovery after the Covid pandemic, and new centres for agriculture and disaster, but did not include security.

“China will release its own position paper on our own positions and propositions and cooperation proposals with Pacific island countries, and going forward we will continue to have ongoing and in-depth discussions and consultations to shape more consensus on cooperation,” he told reporters in Fiji. Questions at the media briefing were not allowed.

Wang said some had questioned China’s motives in being so active in the Pacific islands, and his response was China supported developing countries in Africa, Asia and the Caribbean also.

“Don’t be too anxious and don’t be too nervous, because the common development and prosperity of China and all the other developing countries would only mean great harmony, greater justice and greater progress of the whole world,” he said.

At a press event after the meeting, attended by Wang and Fiji’s prime minister Frank Bainimarama, China confirmed the deal had been shelved for now.

China’s ambassador to Fiji said that while there had been “general support” for the agreement among foreign ministers, it had been put aside after some Pacific countries voiced concerns.

Bainimarama also alluded to dissent among some countries at the meeting, saying the group had a “consensus first” approach. After the meeting, Wang said that China would release a position paper to shape consensus and cooperation.

Australia’s foreign minister, Penny Wong, said on Monday evening “it’s up to the countries of the region to make choices for their people”.

“The security of the Pacific is the responsibility of the Pacific family, of which Australia is a part,” she said in a statement.

“And we want to help build a stronger Pacific family. Australia will always work with the Pacific family to address shared security challenges, which is why we will boost support for Pacific maritime security and increase defence cooperation. We want to bring new energy and more resources to the Pacific.”

The rejection of the deal comes after Wang touched down in Fiji on Friday as part of a diplomatic tour through the region. He met with Bainimarama on Monday, a summit that both leaders said had been successful.

The two countries signed at least three agreements after the meeting, which Wang said would expand cooperation over the economy, trade, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, civil aviation, education, law enforcement, and emergency management.

Wang said on Monday that China would provide assistance to Pacific Island countries with “no political strings attached”. []

Bainimarama reaffirmed the importance of climate change to the Pacific, saying that Pacific nations were not interested in “geopolitical point-scoring” given the threats of climate change and the pandemic. He said he had urged China to make stronger commitments on the climate crisis, something he does when dealing with all major economies.

The leak of the proposed regional deal came just one month after the signing of a controversial bilateral security deal between Solomon Islands and China, which caused huge alarm across the west and prompted high-level diplomatic visits from Australia, New Zealand and the US, all of whom sought to urge the Solomon Islands government not to sign it.

Solomon Islands was Wang’s first stop on his eight-country tour last week before he went on to Kiribati and met with the president, Taneti Maamau.

A Kiribati official, who was not authorised to speak to media, said the pair had discussed fisheries, education and health, as well as trade and tourism opportunities, and that a security arrangement between the countries was not on the cards.

Samoa, which Wang visited on Saturday, signed a bilateral agreement with China promising “greater collaboration”. The details of the deal have not yet emerged.

The Samoan government confirmed in a press release on Saturday that Wang and the Samoan prime minister, Fiame Naomi Mata’afa, had met and discussed “climate change, the pandemic and peace and security”.

Local media were invited to witness the signing of a deal, but no questions were taken.

The Samoan release said China would continue to provide infrastructural development support to various Samoan sectors and there would be a new framework for future projects “to be determined and mutually agreed”.

After Fiji, Wang is scheduled to visit Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste.

In a duel for influence, Australia’s new foreign minister Wong was in Fiji on Friday, reaffirming Australia’s commitment to the region and promoting the new government’s more ambitious targets on emissions reduction. Climate change, which is an acute existential threat to Pacific island nations, has been a point of tension in the relationship between the Pacific and Australia, which has been seen as a laggard on climate action.

The prime minister of Fiji praised Wong after the meeting, saying he had a “wonderful meeting” with her after she travelled to the country in her first solo overseas visit since being sworn in.

quote:

China’s education ministry has ordered a state-owned publisher to rectify a school textbook that went viral owing to what social media users described as “tragically ugly” and inappropriate depictions of children.

The mathematics books published by the People’s Education Press contain illustrations of people with distorted faces and bulging pants. Boys are seen grabbing girls’ skirts and one child appears to have a leg tattoo.

The books are reportedly used in elementary schools across the country, from Shandong province in the north-east to Yunnan in the south.

Photos of the pictures went viral on China’s social media. Related hashtags had been viewed more than 4bn times by Monday and millions of comments were left beneath posts.

Some social media users came to the conclusion that the artwork was deliberately bad and provocative, noting a backwards Chinese flag in one instance and some clothing in the colour combination of the US flag, according to a report on the social media monitor website What’s On Weibo.

One commenter described the illustrations as “evil” and warned of a “worrying” future where “the education department is infiltrated by the west, and the textbooks are manipulated by the people who have infiltrated the system”.

Others were aggrieved that more talented artists had not been hired for the work.

One commenter said the textbook was about a decade old and that complaints had been raised before, but less attention was paid to the issue.

“The core [problem] is still that no one takes responsibility,” they wrote. “This is the cultural annihilation of the country, the awakening is too late, and the cost of auditing crimes is too low.”

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A teacher from a Qingpu district school in Shanghai posted several photos online and said the images failed to convey “the innocence, self-motivation and sunshine of Chinese children”.

In response to the outcry, the ministry of education said it had launched a review of all textbooks for primary and secondary schools, focusing on content and illustration, “to ensure that the textbooks adhere to the correct political direction and value orientation, promote the excellent Chinese culture, and conform to the aesthetic habits of the public”.

It said it had instructed the publisher to “immediately rectify” the textbook, and invited feedback from the public.

How are u posted:

Shot

China’s foreign minister tells Pacific leaders ‘don’t be too anxious’ after they reject regional security pact
Several Pacific nations reportedly want to defer action on the draft agreement or have it amended
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/chinas-foreign-minister-to-meet-with-pacific-nations-amid-push-for-sweeping-regional-deal

Nice to see Australia's new government starting off trying to mend fences with regards to climate change and policy.

Stringent posted:

because china has very accurately gauged the winds of the world and realize that given the trajectory since the 70s, capturing the western manufacturing base and following that up with capturing increasing percentages of reserve currencies (you are here), will eventually result in taiwan begging to reenter china peacefully and orderly, as the US and europe's ability to project force and economic dominance fades.

in other words, why buy the cow when the milk is going to be free?