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Actually...North Korea has a very large supply of Russian-made equipment. I wonder if they'll start to provide replacements for Russian armor. I don't think they have many PGMs, though, which is what Russia really needs. They certainly wouldn't give a poo poo about sanctions, though. In fact, I could see that being the path China uses to get munitions--including PGMs--to Russia. Use North Korea as an intermediary. Given we're a bunch of nerds on a dying internet forum and can think of bad plans like this, I'd be willing to bet that Russia doesn't really run out of kit anytime soon. They probably have smarter people than us figuring this out. Thus, the only answer is to continue arming Ukraine to the hilt with NATO kit and training, and probably ramping up military production at the same time. Edit: In terms of snipes, this was a solid 2 out of 10.
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Jun 8, 2022 18:07
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Saladman posted:That's super interesting and it's the best explanation by far I've seen of why the Russian military can't just switch and start using their domestically-produced N64-quality chips in all their military hardware that only really needs simple processors. Thanks! Pretty much every semiconductor device is made by roughly the same processes on the same equipment. Companies dedicate fabs to "logic" (CPUs and such large scale integrated circuits), RAM, flash, and power/analog semiconductors (individual transistors, op-amps, etc) primarily because it takes time to switch the equipment over from one device to another (anywhere from a minute for an automatic lithography mask exchange or adjustment in gas flow rates to a day+ for a complete chamber teardown and clean to keep residue from the previous device from contaminating the next one) and there's no reason to use uber-expensive cutting edge equipment to make a device that doesn't require that sort of precision. Everyone talks about CPUs because they are by far the most difficult to make, but high density RAM and flash aren't too far behind. Those parts however are largely standardized so you can source ram chips from wherever, and packaged chips would be pretty easy to smuggle. Power semiconductors are the other extreme and frequently are made with decades old equipment. Unfortunately for Russia that old equipment is very difficult to get ahold of now because power semiconductor fabs are absolutely printing money and companies are scrambling to expand to meet demand for poo poo like variable frequency drives in EVs. Again best to buy packaged modules but good luck doing that at the moment, lead times are insane.
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Jun 8, 2022 18:16
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I know back in the 90s there was a bunch of simpler IC stuff made in Minsk. I wonder what they make there these days?
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Jun 8, 2022 18:18
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Ynglaur posted:They probably have smarter people than us figuring this out. Yes, the intelligence of the russian military apparatus has clearly shown out thus far. sexy tiger boobs fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Jun 8, 2022 |
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Jun 8, 2022 18:24
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The issue isn't whether there are intelligent Russians working on the problems they're facing, the issue is the institutions and culture around decision-making. The mostly debunked FSB letters spell this out: all the analysts knew an invasion would go poorly, but they were pressured and incentivized to write positive analyses that went up the chain anyway because why the hell would you actually invade Ukraine? The same with import substitution. There was absolutely the capacity to genuinely do it, but no one actually thinks it's necessary so it's much cheaper and politically beneficial to undercut a potential rival power base by just importing the parts from Czechia and claiming it as a domestic design.
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Jun 8, 2022 18:30
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The discount at the moment is roughly 30% - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/the-deepening-discounts-on-russian-oil-in-the-country-s-own-data Ah, this is what markdown and discount meant. I appreciate the clarification.
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Jun 8, 2022 18:53
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This is not a thread about Korea. Sorry, it’s something that was discussed yesterday? Comparing the current conflict with a potential conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Besides, that’s was a footnote. The real point of my post was to show that comparison of the impact of artillery fire on the landscape of 1917 France during the First World War to the impact of artillery fire on the landscape in Donbas on June 6th that I put together. The real import, or point, of my post was to show how heavy the dueling artillery fire is in Ukraine right now; and to illustrate how horrifying that level of artillery fire must be to the soldiers on both sides and the civilians caught in the middle. Fake edit…  Seoul is in the thread title right now (just in case, this was supposed to be funny.)
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Jun 8, 2022 19:45
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ZombieLenin posted:Sorry, it’s something that was discussed yesterday? Comparing the current conflict with a potential conflict on the Korean Peninsula. That derail resulted in a probation, and two or three mod warnings. I trust you can make your point without going there.
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Jun 8, 2022 19:48
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KitConstantine posted:I didn't see anyone post this, but there was another wild op ed in RIA yesterday entitled "The Balkans - a new front in the war with Russia" and it goes some interesting directions. Lots of NATO criticism yes, but a lot of focus on the duplicitous nature of the EU. I think you meant Balkan. The Baltics are in a completely different region of Europe and are fully in the EU/NATO.
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Jun 8, 2022 20:57
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at calling Kosovo a 'self proclaimed state' while propping up similar situations in Georgia and Moldova. Also Serbia getting jerked off extremely hard throughout.
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awesome-express posted:I think you meant Balkan. The Baltics are in a completely different region of Europe and are fully in the EU/NATO. You're right, but i will leave my mistake for posterity
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Jun 8, 2022 21:04
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KitConstantine posted:You're right, but i will leave my mistake for posterity Russia is a Baltic state, so you're not technically wrong 
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Jun 8, 2022 21:20
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"Is Denmark a Baltic state," the greatest debate in the history of the Ukraine thread, locked by cinci after 20 pagea of heated debate.
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Jun 8, 2022 22:24
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Moon Slayer posted:"Is Denmark a Baltic state," the greatest debate in the history of the Ukraine thread, locked by cinci after 2,000 pagea of heated debate. Ftfy
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Jun 8, 2022 22:29
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How is it that Russians hate Ukrainians so much? Has there been some long term concerted effort by the Russian government to make Russians hate their neighbor? I don't get it because they share a language and a lot of culture. Like I would think if the US invaded Canada you'd have tons of soldiers mutiny but maybe not if the Government had spent decades brainwashing the people that Canadians were subhumans. So is that what's been going on in Russia?
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Jun 8, 2022 22:47
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Charliegrs posted:How is it that Russians hate Ukrainians so much? Has there been some long term concerted effort by the Russian government to make Russians hate their neighbor? I don't get it because they share a language and a lot of culture. Like I would think if the US invaded Canada you'd have tons of soldiers mutiny but maybe not if the Government had spent decades brainwashing the people that Canadians were subhumans. So is that what's been going on in Russia? Yes.
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Jun 8, 2022 22:56
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Charliegrs posted:How is it that Russians hate Ukrainians so much? Has there been some long term concerted effort by the Russian government to make Russians hate their neighbor? I don't get it because they share a language and a lot of culture. Like I would think if the US invaded Canada you'd have tons of soldiers mutiny but maybe not if the Government had spent decades brainwashing the people that Canadians were subhumans. So is that what's been going on in Russia? Yes. Generations of centralized state control of media, coupled with an aggressive propaganda apparatus that has a unique focus on sabotaging civic interest by cultivating a cynical disinterest in the idea of the truth.
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Jun 8, 2022 23:00
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Alleged Ukrainian jet dash cam. https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1534644492883615748 https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1534639166415331334 https://twitter.com/theshipyard2/status/1534542168945213442 https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1534503168616419330 https://twitter.com/hengenahm/status/1534487988176027648 https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1534489502646996992 I guess Mosins are for real after all. https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1534583101837430787 https://twitter.com/aaroneglitis/status/1534435442703187968 A state university in Moscow is soliciting donations of a day’s salary from its employees, for soldiers in Ukraine. I’ve seen reports from other state companies elsewhere in Russia doing similar today as well. https://twitter.com/daniilken/status/1534265996072079362 Moon Slayer posted:"Is Denmark a Baltic state," the greatest debate in the history of the Ukraine thread, locked by cinci after 20 pagea of heated debate. I think there’s a lot of smokers in Denmark, and BBQ is popular, so yes. A bit bizarre with all that tractor drag racing going on, and not having a language, but still yes. Next question. Edit: https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3282 Luhansk military governor says that Russia is back to controlling majority of S-D, with Ukrainian forces conducting street fighting out of the industrial area on western outskirts of the city. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:38 on Jun 9, 2022 |
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Jun 8, 2022 23:01
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Discendo Vox posted:Yes. Generations of centralized state control of media, coupled with an aggressive propaganda apparatus that has a unique focus on sabotaging civic interest by cultivating a cynical disinterest in the idea of the truth. Obviously this poo poo goes back centuries but I think this was really ramped up pretty recently. I watched plenty of Russian state media in the 90s and there was nothing anti-Ukraine back then or in early 2000s. I don't know much about what was going on prior to 2014, but afterwards it was nazis nazis nazis nonstop.
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Jun 9, 2022 00:35
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mobby_6kl posted:Obviously this poo poo goes back centuries but I think this was really ramped up pretty recently. I watched plenty of Russian state media in the 90s and there was nothing anti-Ukraine back then or in early 2000s. I don't know much about what was going on prior to 2014, but afterwards it was nazis nazis nazis nonstop. This was a pretty big reason for the tone change. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan edit- I must have misread the post. Forgive me if I'm confused here. ummel fucked around with this message at 01:32 on Jun 9, 2022 |
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Jun 9, 2022 00:43
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ummel posted:This was a pretty big reason for the tone change. Just so you know, they’re Ukrainian.
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Jun 9, 2022 00:46
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Charliegrs posted:How is it that Russians hate Ukrainians so much? Has there been some long term concerted effort by the Russian government to make Russians hate their neighbor? I don't get it because they share a language and a lot of culture. Like I would think if the US invaded Canada you'd have tons of soldiers mutiny but maybe not if the Government had spent decades brainwashing the people that Canadians were subhumans. So is that what's been going on in Russia? You ever see that movie Canadian Bacon?
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Jun 9, 2022 01:33
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Jun 9, 2022 02:46
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https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1534497485237932032?cxt=HHwWgMCyxaXV0MsqAAAA
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Jun 9, 2022 04:10
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Risky Bisquick posted:https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1534451700966252544 Someone give this kid a reaper
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Jun 9, 2022 05:46
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cr0y posted:Someone give this kid a reaper Let’s not hope for child soldiers.
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Jun 9, 2022 06:02
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quote:I heard multiple stories of Russia’s disproportionate reliance on heavy weaponry. A ten-member Ukrainian reconnaissance unit was spotted during a mission and then fired upon by three Tochka-U ballistic missiles, a munition hefty enough to take out a bridge or an entire command post. Tarnavsky told me of individual Ukrainian artillery systems targeted by Iskander missiles, which cost an estimated five million dollars a shot. “That’s a very expensive pleasure,” he said. “You have to be very rich, or very desperate.” quote:Days later, outside of Svitlodarsk, another city facing Russian attack, Derekh spotted a column of three Russian trucks carrying troops. He fired, destroying them, and slowed the siege. After that, Greek said, “They simply went crazy.” Russian aircraft flew four sorties over Derekh’s position, and the artillery fire was unceasing. A guided missile, likely launched by a Russian fighter jet, hit Derekh’s dugout. He was killed instantly. “You can be brave and experienced and know what to do in every situation,” Greek said. “But Fortuna also decides a lot.” According to Greek, counting the dead and wounded, the unit has lost around forty per cent of its combat strength. grim stuff. i struggled to make sense out of the artillery moonscapes we've been seeing, but it fits with these accounts of the russians throwing absolutely everything at anything that moves. the article includes an interview with the commander of a ukrainian artillery unit that has begun fielding the m777, and he's effusive in his praise for the new edge it gives them in artillery duels. not just the range, but the accuracy as well. even without the excalibur shells, they're hitting targets in 2-3 shots when it used to take 10. still the overriding message from every ukrainian is that they need more of everything as soon as possible this battle doesn't seem to be an existential threat to ukraine in the same way that the fighting in march was, but i wonder if the west will be able to commit enough weapons in the right time table to fully turn the tide. lately i've been worried about the spin up time required for new production, once the pre-war stockpiles have been depleted, at what rate will new heavy weapon systems be produced. most likely faster than what russia can manage, but fast enough to make a difference?
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Jun 9, 2022 07:24
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:grim stuff. i struggled to make sense out of the artillery moonscapes we've been seeing, but it fits with these accounts of the russians throwing absolutely everything at anything that moves. Good that you ask! https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1534709126462427136 This addresses supply more than replenishment of western stockpiles, but plans are clearly in the works. Edit: Another weapons systems delivery success story by Germany, Ukraine’s most stalwart supporter, despite US kind of doing okay too, according to Scholz. https://www.businessinsider.de/poli...chland-steht-a/ The 4 MARS II (German M270) systems offered to be provided to Ukraine June-ish have been possibly delayed by months, as “it turns out” that they require software changes to work with American munitions. https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1534785958213820416 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 07:39 on Jun 9, 2022 |
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Jun 9, 2022 07:26
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No site is safe from the war I see: https://www.pcgamer.com/taiwan-further-restricts-the-sale-of-modern-chips-to-russia-and-belarus/ quote:According to Digitimes, the list of banned CPUs includes any model with the following features or characteristics: Yeah uh those are some loving restrictions all right. Basically anything commercial made after 2010 is out of the question.
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Jun 9, 2022 07:58
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Kikas posted:No site is safe from the war I see: https://www.pcgamer.com/taiwan-further-restricts-the-sale-of-modern-chips-to-russia-and-belarus/ They can still use an Arduino if they want to do compute stuff  GhostofJohnMuir posted:grim stuff. i struggled to make sense out of the artillery moonscapes we've been seeing, but it fits with these accounts of the russians throwing absolutely everything at anything that moves. mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 08:15 on Jun 9, 2022 |
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Jun 9, 2022 08:05
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CSM posted:Russians reportedly managed to establish a bridgehead across the Donets.
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Jun 9, 2022 08:28
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poo poo I cannot find an english source, but apperently Duma will now debate wether to revoke the treaty granting Lithuania independence: https://www.rp.pl/dyplomacja/art36481291-rosja-w-dumie-projekt-ws-wycofania-uznania-niepodleglosci-litwy The proposition to revoke was presented to Duma by One Russia's (Russia's ruling party) Jewgienij Fedorow. They say that the 1991treaty was illegal because earlier that year there was a referendum to keep post-USSR as a single entitity, and the majority of Russians voted yes. It's probably just a publicity stunt, but a good presentation of the level of brainworms Russian politics operate on.
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Jun 9, 2022 08:37
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You would extremely not be seeing the gear going in lol. If Ukraine runs out of stuff to fight with, which you will be able to tell because they stop fighting, then you can assume that they aren't getting enough, but so far that has not been a thing, not even close. Generally time is on Ukraine's side here because the potential equipment pipeline for NATO munitions and gear is immense compared to the surplus soviet stuff that is or was available to ship in to them. However it takes time to get Ukrainians trained up on NATO systems. There's some potential that Russia could've made some headway while their stocks of soviet stuff were low before Ukraine had enough crews trained up and to some extent that was where the brief period of Russian progress in the East came from, but the training and provision of 155mm artillery is significantly well under way. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 08:49 on Jun 9, 2022 |
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Jun 9, 2022 08:41
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Kikas posted:poo poo I cannot find an english source, but apperently Duma will now debate wether to revoke the treaty granting Lithuania independence: https://www.rp.pl/dyplomacja/art36481291-rosja-w-dumie-projekt-ws-wycofania-uznania-niepodleglosci-litwy I’ve seen original sources in Russian, and it looks like hot air for now, thus hadn’t mentioned them.
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Jun 9, 2022 09:40
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Charliegrs posted:How is it that Russians hate Ukrainians so much? Has there been some long term concerted effort by the Russian government to make Russians hate their neighbor? I don't get it because they share a language and a lot of culture. Like I would think if the US invaded Canada you'd have tons of soldiers mutiny but maybe not if the Government had spent decades brainwashing the people that Canadians were subhumans. So is that what's been going on in Russia? Empires (and their population) tend to not be of very high opinion of their subjects. Britain-Ireland is a better comparison than US-Canada. One of the rare unequivocally good (and effective!) things that Musk has done - to be hastily swept under his everyday ego idiocy. mobby_6kl posted:It was clear pretty early on that the soviet surplus stuff will run out sooner rather than later, but I'm definitely not seeing the volumes of modern western gear coming in that would be necessary. I really begin to wonder if russians were correct and they're just doing it to drag out the war, rather than ensure that Ukraine can win it decisively. It's been over 100 days, you could've trained a monkey to operate a Patriot system by now. 100 days is right but it is important to remember that commitments to provide Ukraine with proper weapons only started when ZSU showed that they can successfully defend and hit back on Russians (i.e. around the end of active combat in Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, end of March and the sinking of Moskva on April 14). Allies (mostly US) thought that they would need to support insurgency against Russia, but then they got to reorient their support for Ukraine as a participant in a peer conflict.
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Jun 9, 2022 09:55
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Seriously wtf is wrong with Germany. If it wasn't such a serious situation this would be great comedy. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1534615136467550209 Poland is not exactly impressed with Scholz/Germany for a couple of reasons. https://twitter.com/ronzheimer/status/1534630961069146117 https://twitter.com/ronzheimer/status/1534630964542029825 EDIT: just saw this in comments regarding not having the correct software, if I understand it correctly, the bundeswehr have both a picture and a video of the system firering the missiles it can't fire. https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1534636273079668736 https://twitter.com/clancy688/status/1534815077580390403 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYtv75Efg5s Atreiden fucked around with this message at 11:03 on Jun 9, 2022 |
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Jun 9, 2022 10:53
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Imo it's in bad taste and off the mark to compare Putin to Hitler. If the Polish govt believes they are the same, why are they standing by then? Why are they not fighting along with Ukraine in that case, instead of taking aim at Germany? It's just cheap rhetoric.
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Jun 9, 2022 10:56
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d64 posted:Imo it's in bad taste and off the mark to compare Putin to Hitler. If the Polish govt believes they are the same, why are they standing by then? Why are they not fighting along with Ukraine in that case, instead of taking aim at Germany? It's just cheap rhetoric. For the same reason we cannot argue in favor of direct intervention in this thread: nukes. If Russia did not have nukes, direct intervention would already have happened.
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Jun 9, 2022 11:02
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Jesus. Even when literally helping defend the free world, the dumb gently caress can't make himself look good.
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Jun 9, 2022 11:04
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PederP posted:For the same reason we cannot argue in favor of direct intervention in this thread: nukes.
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