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Kraftwerk posted:Why is everyone in Europe so drat terrified of Russia when an underequipped Ukraine that has like 1/4th Russia's population is able to tie up 85% of Russia's current active duty forces? A bunch of European countries have military capabilities that functionally round down to zero. Ukraine has spent 7 years bolstering its strength and has been able to mobilize forces well beyond what a country like Germany could scrape together today.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:05
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GaussianCopula posted:While the West should do more to support Ukraine, this is not really a shocking analysis. Russia - and before it the Soviet Union - has a doctrine build around artillery and prepared itself for a conflict with either NATO or, to a lesser degree, China. Their artillery reserves are - just going by the numbers - the largest in the world and it was this numerical superiority in terms of kit that made a lot of analysts predict a quick Russian victory and it was their lack of manpower and staggeringly stupid planning/execution that allowed Ukraine to take them on. That's really NATO's doctrine anyway, and it should be much easier to realize an advantage in terms of airframes and technology. Once we can bomb the russians at will, all the artillery would be pretty useless.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:07
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mobby_6kl posted:So maybe rather than trying to counter it by thousands of artillery tubes (which nobody seems to be inclined to provide anyway) it could be better to turn it into an air war? The Russian s furiously Clancy chat whenever this is aired by anyone near power. Which is to say I agree completely.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:13
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mobby_6kl posted:So maybe rather than trying to counter it by thousands of artillery tubes (which nobody seems to be inclined to provide anyway) it could be better to turn it into an air war? Ukraine is limited by their pilots, both in number and in what those pilots know how to fly.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:14
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Arestovitch said today that two Russian generals got whacked by artillery in Kherson, one was an FSB general working on "referendum". Also he reports that Syrian foreign fighters were also hit. Need some additional confirmation of course.Mans posted:Have all nations that started a war equivalent to or longer than three months which have caused the death equal or over four thousand civilians turned into "worldwide" pariahs? They should have.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:15
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Mans posted:The only people who have been hoping that Germany steps up and becomes the leader of Europe are the people who don't live in the periphery of the EU (which the Germans and Dutch lovingly called GIPSI), who haven't seen the material reality of what the Germans, Dutch and French did to us during the austerity days. The German political system/ecosphere still does not really seem to have figured out that Germany is important and big enough that not doing something is also doing something.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:23
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mobby_6kl posted:So maybe rather than trying to counter it by thousands of artillery tubes (which nobody seems to be inclined to provide anyway) it could be better to turn it into an air war? Russia has a lot of interceptors and AA systems, and air war is comparatively expensive - easy if you're a major power, but not necessarily a great investment for an underdog. You would need lots of trained pilots, service crews, air bases, logistics etc. It would be easier for Ukraine to match Russian artillery power than to match their air & anti-air power.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:29
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WarpedLichen posted:I don't think the MIC much cares about who wins the war, just that tensions are increased and conflict is ongoing. Not necessarily. Their kit is all getting shown off now, and it should be apparent that the US and European militaries need to dramatically increase their munitions stockpiles if they hope to win a large, peer or near-peer conventional war. This should fuel a decade or more of intense military spending. Mans posted:The only people who have been hoping that Germany steps up and becomes the leader of Europe are the people who don't live in the periphery of the EU (which the Germans and Dutch lovingly called GIPSI), who haven't seen the material reality of what the Germans, Dutch and French did to us during the austerity days. The way to beat massed Russian artillery fires is with long range precision fires (so, rockets) and air power. If Western-supplied, the latter would almost certainly result in F-16s getting shot down. Fortunately the West has a lot of F-16s lying around right now. I actually think the US should be prepping Abrams tanks, older Bradleys, etc. that we have in storage along with F-16 and F-15 airframes. I hope we are. Edit: To address Nenonen's post, I think that's true if you want air supremacy everywhere. I don't think you need that, though: you need enough air superiority over certain parts of the battlefield to change the operational picture. In the current operational picture, imagine if the Ukrainians were able to break through in the south and threaten the Azov Sea coast. That could make the Russians reduce pressure on the Donbass just to deal with such a thing. With what Ukraine has right now, I think any kind of large breakout would be very, very unlikely. Ynglaur fucked around with this message at 21:36 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 21:34
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I've been reading a cold war - era book on propaganda theory which is pretty heavily oriented toward Soviet propaganda (as one might imagine). Would folks be interested in some effortposts from it here/would it be kosher for the thread?
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Jun 10, 2022 21:38
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Nenonen posted:Russia has a lot of interceptors and AA systems, and air war is comparatively expensive - easy if you're a major power, but not necessarily a great investment for an underdog. You would need lots of trained pilots, service crews, air bases, logistics etc. It would be easier for Ukraine to match Russian artillery power than to match their air & anti-air power.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:40
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Air wars really heavily rely on SEAD operations, a large part of which would realistically be carried out by artillery in Ukraine which puts everything back at square one.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:41
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As a EU citizen from a very different part of Europe, Germany has been extraordinarily bad in their response to russias aggression. In Ireland, the response has been to support Ukraine on every possible way. We in Ireland have extremely long experience of living next door to a neighbour who is happy to ignore historical abuses, commit genocide, inflict a famine for political reasons, and try to eradicate native culture so as to advance colonial targets. We know how much it costs to appease a colonialist neighbour. They won't stop, they will always steal. The only tool is to attack them until they gently caress off forever.
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Jun 10, 2022 21:46
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Nenonen posted:Russia has a lot of interceptors and AA systems, and air war is comparatively expensive - easy if you're a major power, but not necessarily a great investment for an underdog. You would need lots of trained pilots, service crews, air bases, logistics etc. It would be easier for Ukraine to match Russian artillery power than to match their air & anti-air power. Drone warfare is the answer. Cheaper, less training required, and your "pilots" don't have to be replaced every time a sortie is shot down by the opposition's overwhelming anti-air capabilities. Trying to build up and maintain a complete, manned air force in the middle of a war with a stronger regional power would be completely insane and probably impossible even if Western nations offered an endless supply of airframes.
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Jun 10, 2022 22:05
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Artillery isn't just or even mostly about tube count. A huge part of it is accuracy, fast reaction time, and being able to coordinate your fire with the maneuver units effectively. So far Russia can only hit static targets reliably, while Ukraine has been a lot closer to the ideal of being able to suddenly hit static OR moving targets, on short notice, seemingly out of nowhere. SURPRISE fire kills shitloads more people. Russian artillery ain't nothing, but just counting tubes exaggerates their real combat power. See also their tank numbers back in March.
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Jun 10, 2022 22:06
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mobby_6kl posted:Yes but I'm thinking that being expensive might be in our favor. Russia's economy is literally less than Italy's. They don't have as many and can't build more aircraft, while we literally have thousands of F-16s waiting to be replaced soon and a MIC drooling at the thought of pumping out more stuff. Training is an issue, but hopefully it already started. Italy is a major producer of fashionable hand bags. Russia is a major producer of oil, war machinery and a whole range of materials needed in war. Italy wouldn't survive ten days of the kind of war that Ukraine has seen. One thing that needs attention is protecting logistics. Russia is hopefully running out of the kinds of missiles that it would prefer to use to hit deep in Ukraine, but there is no certainty. Boosting Ukraine's AA capability with more Patriot batteries would do more for the same effort than F-16's because protecting railway logistics means that more ammunition will get closer to the front. Sea transport is out of question and road transport is less efficient so anything that protects the railroads and army depots is vital.
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Jun 10, 2022 22:19
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Discendo Vox posted:I've been reading a cold war - era book on propaganda theory which is pretty heavily oriented toward Soviet propaganda (as one might imagine). Would folks be interested in some effortposts from it here/would it be kosher for the thread? i'll allow it (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 10, 2022 22:21
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Vox Nihili posted:Drone warfare is the answer. Cheaper, less training required, and your "pilots" don't have to be replaced every time a sortie is shot down by the opposition's overwhelming anti-air capabilities. Drones are great for sure though but at least from what I've seen so far, they need a pretty safe airspace to operate properly. The TB2 certainly has shown that it can survive a bit in contested airspace and score some hits but hardly in a way that could turn everything around. Nenonen posted:Italy is a major producer of fashionable hand bags. Russia is a major producer of oil, war machinery and a whole range of materials needed in war. Italy wouldn't survive ten days of the kind of war that Ukraine has seen. Agreed about Patriots, they should be a priority over planes, but it's not like they're coming either, so far.
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Jun 10, 2022 22:31
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Vox Nihili posted:Drone warfare is the answer. Cheaper, less training required, and your "pilots" don't have to be replaced every time a sortie is shot down by the opposition's overwhelming anti-air capabilities. I don't think its as clear cut as this. Drones have far less capability in terms of speed, payload, and stealth compared to manned jets and are therefore far easier to shoot down. They are more easily replaced but more easily does not mean easy. Ukraine will definitely still want a manned airforce.
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Jun 10, 2022 22:34
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mobby_6kl posted:The Vietnamese somehow managed it so I want to believe it's possible. Ukraine is a goddamn plain filled with amber waves of grain/sunflowers and swamps and NATO has already said they're keeping out of it directly. The two scenarios are not comparable.
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Jun 10, 2022 22:47
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mobby_6kl posted:The Vietnamese somehow managed it so I want to believe it's possible. North Vietnamese pilots were trained for years prior to the war. Their airframes could be based in China as necessary, where they were trained. If Poland wants to be to Ukraine what China was to Vietnam then maybe they could build up a real Ukrainian air force ready in just a couple years. Realistically, is not something that appears to be on the table at this time.
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Jun 10, 2022 22:59
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Pookah posted:As a EU citizen from a very different part of Europe, Germany has been extraordinarily bad in their response to russias aggression. Is Northern Ireland the equivalent of the LNR and DNR?
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Jun 10, 2022 23:00
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Nenonen posted:Italy is a major producer of fashionable hand bags. Russia is a major producer of oil, war machinery and a whole range of materials needed in war. Italy wouldn't survive ten days of the kind of war that Ukraine has seen. Italy has a number of major industrial companies. Both Ukraine and Russia are using Italian manufactured military equipment right now.
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Jun 10, 2022 23:01
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Vox Nihili posted:North Vietnamese pilots were trained for years prior to the war. Their airframes could be based in China as necessary, where they were trained. If Poland wants to be to Ukraine what China was to Vietnam then maybe they could build up a real Ukrainian air force ready in just a couple years. So it's just to convince Poland now. Oracle posted:The Vietnamese had heavy jungle cover to hide in over most of their terrain, an almost uniformly friendly poplace, and the backing of China and Russian air forces actually flying sorties for them. And NATO can change their mind and do whatever they want.
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Jun 10, 2022 23:18
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mobby_6kl posted:As for the jungle, how much would that even play into it? I was going to just quote this and laugh maniacally but I'll contribute more and just say a whole whole whole lot. Spend a single day immersed anywhere with stupid thick vegetation and you will understand.
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Jun 10, 2022 23:20
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CommieGIR posted:It seriously cannot be understated how many up and coming young physicists got slaughtered on the Eastern Front as infantry The UK learned the hard way with Moseley in WW1 and took actually took measures against sending scientists to war. Pretty amazing that sending your brightest into the meat grinder was still a think later on.
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Jun 10, 2022 23:24
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Telsa Cola posted:I was going to just quote this and laugh maniacally but I'll contribute more and just say a whole whole whole lot. Yeah, that was a wild statement. I grew up in the forests of Appalachia, and a few hundred feet of forest can make you feel like the only person in the world. A jungle must amplify that feeling a hundred-fold at least.
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Jun 10, 2022 23:24
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Coquito Ergo Sum posted:Yeah, that was a wild statement. I grew up in the forests of Appalachia, and a few hundred feet of forest can make you feel like the only person in the world. A jungle must amplify that feeling a hundred-fold at least. Going back to those pictures of the fields riddled with shells, pretty sure that area was being targeted because of troops hiding in the thin strip of vegetation between the fields. You can hide tanks with just a couple trees and some bushes. Jungles are information black holes unless you have really good infrared optics.
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Jun 10, 2022 23:28
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Telsa Cola posted:I was going to just quote this and laugh maniacally but I'll contribute more and just say a whole whole whole lot. You don't have planes launch from under a tree canopy. Ukraine has demonstrated it can keep planes on the ground from being destroyed constantly.
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Jun 10, 2022 23:40
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fatherboxx posted:Arestovitch said today that two Russian generals got whacked by artillery in Kherson, one was an FSB general working on "referendum". Also he reports that Syrian foreign fighters were also hit. Need some additional confirmation of course. Can you post your sources?
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Jun 10, 2022 23:54
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The X-man cometh posted:Is Northern Ireland the equivalent of the LNR and DNR? It's a sensitive topic, but fundamentally, yeah, its the same except the colonisation happened a few hundred years ago. A large protestant, British population was imported to drive out a native Irish population. My own grandfather's family was driven off good land in County Down on to terrible land in Leitrim at the time. There's still a population there whose entire identity is tied up to being Not Irish despite living in Ireland for many generations and it's a bigass problem because the British identity they cling to doesn't want them and hasn't wanted them for decades. They cannot be Irish because their entire raison d'etre is not being Irish, but the UK mainland 100% thinks they are Irish as gently caress.
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Jun 10, 2022 23:54
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Ynglaur posted:You don't have planes launch from under a tree canopy. Ukraine has demonstrated it can keep planes on the ground from being destroyed constantly. The point is that jungle environments or environments with extremely dense vegetation is like the exact opposite of the current environment in Ukraine and that a jungle environment would have had a tremendous impact on how things play out.
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Jun 11, 2022 00:20
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Telsa Cola posted:The point is that jungle environments or environments with extremely dense vegetation is like the exact opposite of the current environment in Ukraine and that a jungle environment would have had a tremendous impact on how things play out. I think the original point is about Ukraine getting an airforce like the Vietnamese did and I'm also not sure how jungles would matter in that context.
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Jun 11, 2022 00:23
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Discendo Vox posted:I've been reading a cold war - era book on propaganda theory which is pretty heavily oriented toward Soviet propaganda (as one might imagine). Would folks be interested in some effortposts from it here/would it be kosher for the thread? I think it could be good thread material, especially late Cold War stuff since the current leadership was all 30-40 years old when the USSR fell.
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Jun 11, 2022 00:36
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Ukraine already lost one airforce, not sure what another would really accomplish in the long-term. I understand the interest though; Top Gun is currently in theaters. Not sure if this was posted; they've gotten around to banning what I believe is the last significant opposition party. https://babel.ua/en/news/79648-the-court-banned-the-opposition-bloc-party quote:The Eighth Administrative Court of Appeal banned the Opposition Bloc political party in Ukraine. I assume this will ease the adoption of Bill 5371, which seeks to undermine labor rights under the guise of de-Sovietization (as workers rights are too evocative of the USSR): https://www.epsu.org/article/ukraine-attack-dismissal-rights-pushed-under-cover-martial-law Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Jun 11, 2022 |
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Jun 11, 2022 00:45
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WarpedLichen posted:I think the original point is about Ukraine getting an airforce like the Vietnamese did and I'm also not sure how jungles would matter in that context. SEAD against SAMs hiding in hilly, misty and monsoonal jungles vs SEAD against SAMs hiding in the middle of flat, clear blue sky wheat fields...
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Jun 11, 2022 00:45
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I think it could be good thread material, especially late Cold War stuff since the current leadership was all 30-40 years old when the USSR fell. It's an edited 11-chapter volume from 1989, "Propaganda: APluralistic Perspective". I'll do a writeup of the relevant chapters this weekend- maybe break it out into parts. The whole thing is rooted in the inability of the academy to consistently define "propaganda" or distinguish it from either persuasive or mass communication.
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Jun 11, 2022 00:48
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mobby_6kl posted:Ukrainian pilots have been training in the US and other NATO countries for years too: https://coffeeordie.com/ukrainian-mig-29-pilot-interview/ (sorry it's the chuddy coffee company apparently but that's what I could find now). Doesn't say explicitly but presumably on NATO aircraft, no way they'd ferry the MiGs around for that purpose. quote:Uhh Ukraine also has a friendly population? Outside of maybe Crimea but that doesn't matter that much for now. quote:As for the jungle, how much would that even play into it? quote:And NATO can change their mind and do whatever they want. NATO is not going to do a no-fly zone, either. NATO is not going to fly sorties for Ukraine. Not even drones.
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Jun 11, 2022 00:53
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Neurolimal posted:Not sure if this was posted; they've gotten around to banning what I believe is the last significant opposition party. Opposition Block had six whole deputies in the current Rada, they werent in position to contest any reforms. They were suspended back in march along with the other pro-Russian Quisling parties, most notably Medvedchuk's OPZJ.
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Jun 11, 2022 01:10
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Electric Wrigglies posted:SEAD against SAMs hiding in hilly, misty and monsoonal jungles vs SEAD against SAMs hiding in the middle of flat, clear blue sky wheat fields... I'm not really sure what this statement is supposed to mean. The north vietnamese airforce flew defensive ambush sorties and not SEAD missions. If we're arguing that the Ukranian airforce can be built up in sufficient time to wrestle away control of the airspace and win the war, that seems far fetched. I don't think the airforce will be a decisive factor for this war anytime soon. But people talk about sending fighter jets to Ukraine because there is value in getting them working, which is more than I can say for tanks.
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Jun 11, 2022 01:43
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The Ukrainian air force isn't going to be a gigantic factor in this war, but it counts. The bombings of vulnerable convoys and locations means Russian planners have to account for it, and Russian air defenses have to keep working (and posing a danger to their own planes). The interdictions of Russian aircraft similarly mean the RuAF has one more thing to worry about and loses a few more planes they really cannot afford to lose.
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Jun 11, 2022 02:08
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