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Rah! posted:Italy produces a lot of military equipment, and vehicles, and other stuff that's useful during a war, unlike what Nenonen implied. And it produces more oil than Ukraine. If Ukraine can last 10 days in a war, than why not Italy? But who knows, maybe everyone would trip on spaghetti and get prada bags stuck on their heads and lose immediately mama mia Italy is also one of the three country with a native tank platform(which isn't a t72 derivative/upgrade) in continental Europe so, if Draghi wanted to send tanks, no matter the cost, there wouldn't be any possible veto option from Germany.
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Jun 11, 2022 22:39
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Measuring GDP's? Effeminate; popular with weakings. Measuring PPP's? Powerful and masculine.
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Jun 11, 2022 22:39
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That is getting into Clancychat indeed. Couple immediately available: https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1535479397695868928?s=20&t=hLmB5lkjDGX5l9-voGShUg https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1535629711921004545?s=20&t=MqHfb6iJ6XbeBtWKTWN-Dw https://twitter.com/TreyYingst/status/1535682058101460993?s=20&t=Osq6qlKY-40yL54MIY32fg OSINT Defender also taking a sabbatical, though he elaborates that it's for family reasons, and posted it the day prior to the current batch: https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1535452149622231040?s=20&t=Uwi3BoanBMkXKqwRUxlcIg It could just be a coincidence, though "An explanation will be provided once we feel we can do so without making the problem worse." is certainly ominous. Pure speculation at this point.
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Jun 11, 2022 22:43
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KitConstantine posted:Speaking of - big if true
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Jun 11, 2022 22:43
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Neurolimal posted:Couple immediately available: Thank you!
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Jun 11, 2022 22:58
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Neurolimal posted:It could just be a coincidence, though "An explanation will be provided once we feel we can do so without making the problem worse." is certainly ominous. Pure speculation at this point. The only place I can see this discussed on twitter is on some pro-russian twitter accounts and it looks like some bonkers conspiracy to me  Mmmhm yes indeed Chalks fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Jun 11, 2022 |
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Jun 11, 2022 22:58
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Those OSINT accounts look like they are being targetted by bot swarms
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Jun 11, 2022 23:05
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Other OSInt twitter feeds appear to still be going strong, so I have a hard time reading too much into a couple journalists taking vacation time on a June weekend and a self-important vaguepost from one of many armchair war nerds. I do suspect the war is getting a lot less fun for the hobbyists now that it has settled into a grinding artillery battle. Inasmuch as there's anything there I think interest fatigue is a more likely explanation than an attempt to cover up sudden catastrophic changes.
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Jun 11, 2022 23:18
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I don't believe the Ukrainian government has a hold on a couple of reporters from Fox News and Bild, nor do I think the Ukrainian Armed Forces are sharing their weekend battle plans in advance with a bunch of random twitter accounts on the basis that they pinky swear not to say anything.
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Jun 11, 2022 23:19
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1535739525569331202 probably coincidence, there is also public holiday in Ukraine
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Jun 11, 2022 23:22
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KitConstantine posted:https://twitter.com/ronzheimer/status/1535682459911827457?t=My1oJv-GHv1ULVvzPrn5bg&s=19
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Jun 11, 2022 23:25
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the popes toes posted:Will German/Ukrainian relations be stronger or worsened after this visit? Yes.
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Jun 11, 2022 23:48
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Neurolimal posted:Reforms is certainly a way to describe what the bill does. Which existing non-banned parties in this democracy would you say are not traitorous, if I may ask? Poroshenko and Timoshenko parties (European Solidarity and Batkivshina) are in open opposition to Sluga Naroda; their current poor representation in Rada (around 50 seats total) is a result of their past failures over decade+ (especially the former). You shouldnt worry because Akhmetov would dump more money into whatever remains of pro-Russian electorate (it would be pretty hard to find people wanting to get bombed and looted second time though) when the war ends and Regions Party -> OPZJ deadenders would find another home.
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Jun 12, 2022 00:15
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The guy writes huge weird posts with lots of holodomor denial, he doesn't give a crap about ukrainians, Ukrainian democracy or its party nuances, he's slowly hinting towards "zelensky is a nazi" (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 12, 2022 00:49
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Just a reminder that the ban of those parties is not actually extended to Rada members themselves. They are still there as either the newly formed Platform for Life and Peace group, or simply as independents. Well, barring the ever controversial Ilia Kiva who used to be in Right Sector, but switched to Opposition Platform for, uh, reasons, and who is now a fixture on Russian propaganda talk shows. Maybe there are a couple of other ex-Rada members like this that I missed. E: Even Medvedchuk is still a Rada member. Just like the Party of Regions got reformed into Opposition Platform+Bloc, those parties will be able to re-register* after the war, although I imagine they'll have to cut off some of the members who are literal collaborators on occupied territories. *The way it actually often works in Ukraine is you buy an already registered small party and rename it (see Saakashvilli's Movement of New Forces). It's quicker and you can avoid a lot of paperwork and government oversight. I vaguely remember that there was a bill to curtail this, but I don't think it passed. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 01:04 on Jun 12, 2022 |
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Jun 12, 2022 00:55
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Charliegrs posted:The Iraqi airbases were attacked by ISIS multiple times which forced the US to pull out their contractors causing a complete collapse in F16 maintenance and as of a few years ago they were effectively mothballed. As of a year ago and reportedly still to this day, you're much more likely to see Iraq flying F-16s around (or much simpler and longer endurance AC-208s) than their other aircraft. Iraqi SU-25s fly, but not that often. https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulid...sh=893382d6b94d
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Jun 12, 2022 01:18
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Another dawn in breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Jun 12, 2022 02:44
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Deteriorata posted:Another dawn in breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. While I still greatly appreciate these posts, I think it would be good to use screenshots that don't say "Russian Controlled" in the bottom corner.
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Jun 12, 2022 02:53
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Sax Mortar posted:While I still greatly appreciate these posts, I think it would be good to use screenshots that don't say "Russian Controlled" in the bottom corner. Is it not part of Ukraine?
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Jun 12, 2022 03:45
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Deteriorata posted:Is it not part of Ukraine? It is part of Ukraine. The words on the picture are bad. I didn't say "use a different picture" - though I suppose I could have suggested just cropping that bit out next time.
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Jun 12, 2022 03:52
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Deteriorata posted:Is it not part of Ukraine? I kinda like this, perhaps as a novelty change in your daily routine and as a reminder that Ukrainian land was stolen and the thieves still have it. Keep doing it. Now, if you do a Crimean one at some point, well. That might prompt an interesting discussion.
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Jun 12, 2022 03:56
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the popes toes posted:I kinda like this, perhaps as a novelty change in your daily routine and as a reminder that Ukrainian land was stolen and the thieves still have it. Keep doing it. I already have, actually. And yes, there was some discussion.
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Jun 12, 2022 04:55
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Paladinus posted:Just a reminder that the ban of those parties is not actually extended to Rada members themselves. They are still there as either the newly formed Platform for Life and Peace group, or simply as independents. Well, barring the ever controversial Ilia Kiva who used to be in Right Sector, but switched to Opposition Platform for, uh, reasons, and who is now a fixture on Russian propaganda talk shows. Maybe there are a couple of other ex-Rada members like this that I missed. E: Even Medvedchuk is still a Rada member. That's interesting, how are parties structured in the Ukraine? Is it just a name you get on a ballot or does it do more than that?
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Jun 12, 2022 05:50
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The Sacred and the Profane: https://twitter.com/SergiyKyslytsya/status/1535782367599726592?cxt=HHwWgMC4kaX7mNAqAAAA https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1535768881985355781?cxt=HHwWioCwvanqktAqAAAA
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Jun 12, 2022 05:58
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Xarn posted:Anyway, is there some aggregator of how much military stuff was given out to Ukraine? This post caused me to look up what we (Czechia) sent, and I couldn't find actual numbers, only the types. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html
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Jun 12, 2022 06:45
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PederP posted:I fixated more on the specifics of 'western tanks' and read that as 'german panzers'. And for what it is worth (including that I disagree) there is some merit to the position that German MBTs fighting Russia would immediately be weaponized by Russian propaganda and could erode public support. I know you've made some posts after this one, but I'm just going to take this one as an example of your way of thinking. Independent of Germany, in general: Somehow, absolutely every action or inaction in the world, no matter how dumb or bad, can be made to look like a noble deed if you twist yourself in knots enough over 6 paragraphs and ascribe it all to a larger plan that is executed in 11 dimensions that are somehow all invisible to the objective observer. About Germany: It's irrelevant whether Germany (which could mean its people, its government or its chancellor) has bad intentions. In politics, the appearance of corruption is as bad as actual corruption. The appearance of not helping is, at least from a PR standpoint, as bad as not helping. The appearance of not wanting Ukraine to win is... [etc., etc.] I like the saying “Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.” On that basis, Germany has, among other things: - Not done much (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/), - Publicly wavered (e.g., Scholz's remarks), - Slowed down energy sanctions, - Reservations about sending heavy weaponry to Ukraine, - Promised many things it hasn't delivered. But according to Deutschlandversteher, we must not look at the facts, but believe the good intentions in the background, which are of the highest moral quality indeed. While Ukrainians die, believe it or not. P.S.: 'keine Deutsches Panzer im richtung Russland!' -- Wenn so was überhaupt schon sein muss, dann mach' das doch bitte richtig und mit Google Translate.
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Jun 12, 2022 07:54
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FishBulbia posted:I mean the biggest issue with say france invading Italy would be that Italy doesn't have the defense in depth that Ukraine does. Ukraine gave up 20% of its territory in exchange for stopping Russia in its tracks. Western Euro countries can't do that. but this is getting to a silly hypothetical. Remember Hannibal and the elephants ? The border between France and Italy is in those mountains, they actually would have some depth against an attack through mountain passes. In fact, their only border that isn't mountains or salt water is the northern plain, which is cut by a lot of rivers which make great defensive lines to fall back to. They'll do fine. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 12, 2022 08:05
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mllaneza posted:Remember Hannibal and the elephants ? The border between France and Italy is in those mountains, they actually would have some depth against an attack through mountain passes. In fact, their only border that isn't mountains or salt water is the northern plain, which is cut by a lot of rivers which make great defensive lines to fall back to. They'll do fine. The northern plains are already inside Italy, so no, it's all mountain passes. Same thing with Germany and Austria. Slovenia could invade through slightly shorter but still fairly operationally lovely mountain passes. It was the only front open in WWI because all the rest of the border is such impassable bullshit. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 12, 2022 08:45
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"How France and Slovenia could invade Italy" is a step beyond Clancychat into "those guys who self-publish on Amazon and have their name and the book's title (part 8 of a series!) in right-justfied Impact over a Photoshop montage of seven identical V-22 Ospreys hovering above the burning Capitol building"-chat.
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Jun 12, 2022 09:40
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I see that you're familiar with my dissertation,
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Jun 12, 2022 09:56
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that's probably enough derail and shitposting about France invading Italy
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Jun 12, 2022 10:00
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WarpedLichen posted:That's interesting, how are parties structured in the Ukraine? Is it just a name you get on a ballot or does it do more than that? Same as everywhere else in Europe, parties mainly mean which ballot your name is written on during the election indeed. They don’t have magic power of un-electing their members - at most you can be kicked out of the party’s faction in the parliament. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:18 on Jun 12, 2022 |
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Jun 12, 2022 10:05
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I don't know if it is the case in Ukraine also, but I want to point out that in at least some European countries, a candidate's party does matter a lot for the party during elections. Some of the seats in parliament are reserved to ensure that all parties have a number of seats reflecting their proportion of the nation-wide vote, so even if you personally don't get enough votes, you might get in anyway if some other member of the same party gets a lot more votes than they needed.
Slashrat fucked around with this message at 10:21 on Jun 12, 2022 |
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Jun 12, 2022 10:17
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Slashrat posted:I don't know if it is the case in Ukraine also, but I want to point out that in at least some European countries, a candidate's party does matter for the party during elections. Some of the seats in parliament are reserved to ensure that all parties have a number of seats reflecting their proportion of the nation-wide vote, so even if you personally don't get enough votes, you might get in anyway if some other member of the same party gets a lot more votes than they needed. So the way elections worked until 2012 was party lists voting. You vote for just the party effectively, through a national ballot determined by the respective party, and if your candidate is #7 on the ballot, the party must win 7 seats in the parliament for yours to get it. Parliamentary seats were awarded in linear proportion to votes received by the party ballot, with 5% minimum requirement. Then for the 2012 election Yanukovych had introduced an electoral reform. 50% of MPs for that and the subsequent elections have come through the system above, whereas the other 50% come from single seat constituencies, in an FPTP vote. That is a somewhat lovely system, which Ukraine tried to change in 2014, right after the revolution. It failed to pass the parliament vote back then, but the parliament returned to the topic in 2017, and changed the law shortly after Zelenskyy was elected, in 2019. The next election in 2023 is going to be under the new law. It’s similar to pre-2012 election mechanism, with the key difference that the nationwide candidate list is going to be built out of regional lists of candidates, where voters will be able to mark their specific preferences, affecting the order of candidates on the national ballot. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:47 on Jun 12, 2022 |
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Jun 12, 2022 10:42
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cinci zoo sniper posted:So the way elections worked until 2012 was party lists voting. You vote for just the party effectively, through a national ballot determined by the respective party, and if your candidate is #7 on the ballot, the party must win 7 seats in the parliament for yours to get it. Parliamentary seats were awarded in linear proportion to votes received by the party ballot, with 5% minimum requirement. Pre-2012: Closed List PR Post-2012: Parallel voting, 50% Closed List PR 50% single-member districts First Past The Post (notably less proportional, and favors slight pluralities) Post-2023: Open List PR I believe there was a 5% threshold requirement in every case
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Jun 12, 2022 10:50
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ShadowHawk posted:For election-nerds out there, this is: Correct. Also, as you note, the post-2012 system favours regional pluralities *cough* Donbas *cough*. Yanukovych was smelling blood in the water with the spectre of EU association agreement on the horizon.
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Jun 12, 2022 10:51
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:I know you've made some posts after this one, but I'm just going to take this one as an example of your way of thinking. Fair enough. I do concede I may be overly optimistic about the intentions and reality of German aid. However, even ditching any speculation and looking purely at the known facts: - Germany is hosting the training of Ukrainian armed forces. - Germany has provided aid of a significant monetary value. It may not be ideal or include heavy weapons, but still it is unreasonable to label it "not done much" - Germany has agreed to sanctions that severely affect Russia (freezing accounts, SWIFT, etc.) and which completely caught Kremlin off guard We absolutely can, and should, criticize the German government for not doing enough and for being too slow. But with reason and not letting it build into fractures. Because that is what Putin very much wants to happen. I already expressed my disagreement with both the material realities of the policies and the (hypotethetical) reasons for it being that way - so no, I'm not asking anyone to smile and be happy about the current situation, while Ukrainians die as a result of aid not being given. I personally think anything less than direct intervention is too little and too late. Still, I think it is wise to try and explore whatever avenues for maximizing aid within the constraints of political realities. And if German tanks are the red line (which I still believe it is), that means it is better to lobby Germany for providing more of other things - because getting help to Ukraine is what matters in the end. And Germany has the industrial and financial means to do just that. I'm sure there's a way to set up production lines for some of those Soviet-style munitions that are running dry. Or whatever. As for my mangled German, sorry, but I'm just a dumb Dane, and I'll unapologetically fail at German grammar out of sheer habit, while loving every moment of it. My fondness for German is greater than my aptitude at expressing myself in it. If it is any consolation my French is even worse.
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Jun 12, 2022 11:34
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PederP posted:Fair enough. I do concede I may be overly optimistic about the intentions and reality of German aid. However, even ditching any speculation and looking purely at the known facts: Putin probably wants fractures, but what he definitely wants even more is for Germany (and any other country) not to meaningfully help Ukraine, if at all. Publicly criticizing Germany may cause fractures (which I doubt), but not doing it and continuing the status quo definitely gives him the latter. If I look at the support tracker, what Germany did is not particularly impressive. This means that the risk of alienating Germany through criticism (which, again, I would assess as very low because Germany tends to be principled) is preferable to the certainty of not getting much from Germany. There's a lot to gain and not much to lose. Your German is certainly a billion times better than my Danish.
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Jun 12, 2022 11:57
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:If I look at the support tracker, what Germany did is not particularly impressive. This means that the risk of alienating Germany through criticism (which, again, I would assess as very low because Germany tends to be principled) is preferable to the certainty of not getting much from Germany. There's a lot to gain and not much to lose. Looking at aid given as a percentage of GDP, Germany is at the higher end compared to most of Europe. This is a general issue with all but a few countries - aid given as a whole is too low. Germany is big and has a massive arms industry, which just makes things more obvious, but it really isn't a uniquely German problem. Figure 3 in the working paper of the tracker you linked is key, in my opinion. I would like to see Europe ramp up aid massively - ok, so we can't intervene directly because of nukes - but then lets give more help. Not this piddly < 0,5% GDP stuff. But putting as much of our industrial, financial and technological power behind Ukraine. Set up entire factories to produce stuff they need. This cannot be solved through the normal arms industry and warehoused legacy equipment. Europe should be giving the US a run for the money as the arsenal of democracy and pumping out what Ukraine needs en masse. And we should have done it months back. Bickering about the particulars of what kind of equipment different countries will provide and giving one ad-hoc package after another is wrong. Europe should be making it clear we are doing every thing we can to make up for the fact that we cannot intervene directly. Ukraine must win this war, and as swiftly as possible. Ensuring victory is not enough. Swift and total victory is also the responsibility of Europe. The problem isn't whether Germany wants to provide tanks. The problem is the EU should provide aid an order of magnitude above what it currently is.
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Jun 12, 2022 12:17
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PederP posted:Looking at aid given as a percentage of GDP, Germany is at the higher end compared to most of Europe. This is a general issue with all but a few countries - aid given as a whole is too low. Germany is big and has a massive arms industry, which just makes things more obvious, but it really isn't a uniquely German problem. Figure 3 in the working paper of the tracker you linked is key, in my opinion. I would like to see Europe ramp up aid massively - ok, so we can't intervene directly because of nukes - but then lets give more help. Not this piddly < 0,5% GDP stuff. But putting as much of our industrial, financial and technological power behind Ukraine. Set up entire factories to produce stuff they need. This cannot be solved through the normal arms industry and warehoused legacy equipment. Europe should be giving the US a run for the money as the arsenal of democracy and pumping out what Ukraine needs en masse. And we should have done it months back. Bickering about the particulars of what kind of equipment different countries will provide and giving one ad-hoc package after another is wrong. Europe should be making it clear we are doing every thing we can to make up for the fact that we cannot intervene directly. Ukraine must win this war, and as swiftly as possible. Ensuring victory is not enough. Swift and total victory is also the responsibility of Europe. The problem isn't whether Germany wants to provide tanks. The problem is the EU should provide aid an order of magnitude above what it currently is. Agree with all this. It seems like there should be a sense of urgency that it's vitally important that Ukraine wins this war, and as quickly as possible, that isn't there. Rather than the sense that "oh this is a good cause that we support" but doesn't have significant terrible consequences for the continent if it goes badly, where piecemealing and half-assing the support is acceptable.
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