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steinrokkan posted:If you want answers, try to formulate your question in a way that isn't going to be dismissed outright as farcical. Yes, the EU is going to burn to the ground tomorrow and the US is going to sink into the ocean, is that what you wanted to hear? Please don't reply to 3 months old posts brought up by someone else in the world's clumsiest attempt to own someone.
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Jun 15, 2022 14:36
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Electric Wrigglies posted:what are you talking about? I am not talking violations (arty that gets hit while firing on Ukrainian soil is not going to prompt anything other than crocodile tears as far as violations go). I was talking practicalities. The drones were a game changer in the tit for tat that was ongoing. That is all I said. Bayraktar is a good machine but it can't win the war by itself and most certainly its presence did not influence Putin's decision to amass troops and try for a blitz (imo, it was mostly dictated by the need for internal consolidation of public opinion and elites prior to the setup of the inevitable (in 3-4 years) power transfer).
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Jun 15, 2022 14:41
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Alchenar posted:Good article from RUSI: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/macron-must-avoid-immolation-french-influence If someone is curious about the dominant mood in Baltics and Poland, this is captures well almost all of it, bar historical background.
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Jun 15, 2022 14:43
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steinrokkan posted:If you want answers, try to formulate your question in a way that isn't going to be dismissed outright as farcical. Yes, the EU is going to burn to the ground tomorrow and the US is going to sink into the ocean, is that what you wanted to hear? A good way to avoid at least some silliness is to keep away from the whole BRIC(s) nonsense for anything more than maybe "places capitalists would like to sell more stuff" given that India and China are hardly friends.
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Jun 15, 2022 14:47
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The Kazakh President Tokaev just said that even though Kazakhstan and Russia are close partners (they are both members of EACU, EurAsEC, CSTO, and CIS), Kazakhstan will still observe the sanctions against Russia, because of course they will. I'm sure Brazil will be much more principled in its undying support of their biggest ally, Russia, for a variety of unknown reasons.
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Jun 15, 2022 14:54
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OddObserver posted:A good way to avoid at least some silliness is to keep away from the whole BRIC(s) nonsense for anything more than maybe "places capitalists would like to sell more stuff" given that India and China are hardly friends. It is kind of odd because I feel like the sole thing that might keep BRICS wedded together as anything faintly coherent is opposing US policy, but since the US has been receding for some time as the Unipower it will probably open fissures between them. Like we all know about India and China's disregard for the other but even China and Russia have historically not been perfect allies if the Sino-Soviet split is anything to go off of.
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Jun 15, 2022 14:54
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fatherboxx posted:Bayraktar is a good machine but it can't win the war by itself and most certainly its presence did not influence Putin's decision to amass troops and try for a blitz (imo, it was mostly dictated by the need for internal consolidation of public opinion and elites prior to the setup of the inevitable (in 3-4 years) power transfer). Yeah I think it's nonsense. However, from what I've heard from some actual russians, "Ukraine's coming right for us" was definitely a narrative being repeated there.
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Jun 15, 2022 14:57
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mobby_6kl posted:Yeah I think it's nonsense. However, from what I've heard from some actual russians, "Ukraine's coming right for us" was definitely a narrative being repeated there. It's a narrative that they're still pushing, yes. They even keep publishing fake documents in bad Ukrainian along with completely unrelated real documents as a proof. Did you know the Ukrainian police were reorganising it's regional structure, and also ordered the officers to attend annual courses? Clearly, a sign of an impending invasion. See also: Lukashenko's memetic promise to show the exact positions from where Ukraine was about to strike.
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Jun 15, 2022 15:02
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fatherboxx posted:the inevitable (in 3-4 years) power transfer). This seems like an interesting premise and I'm curious about your reasoning
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Jun 15, 2022 15:02
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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1537068671494938625 Analysis like this requires the caveat that the vast majority of interstate conflict ends with both regimes still being in power. Likewise, the conclusion of conflicts is often exactly as immoral as the initiation. This is the limit of the WW2 analogy. I don't see Putin not surviving unless he intiates mobilization and continues to bungle this. It seems more likely that the conflict will end without defeat and without victory.
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Jun 15, 2022 15:08
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1537068671494938625 What I think matters more is whether we actually step up our support or let Ukraine duke it out to the last man before being forced giving up a chunk of the country. That would be a clear signal that the west is weak and isn't willing to make the smallest effort to protect its friends.
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Jun 15, 2022 15:13
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Human history is the lesson the aggression works. What's key is not taking off more than you can chew.
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Jun 15, 2022 15:21
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https://twitter.com/hwtnv/status/1536870173243691008?s=20&t=PB9sHfeBE4SkWe_WfesV4Q Maxar confirms that the bridges are down on the donets. The river there is quite shallow allegedly, so while this prevents equipment from going over, I'm sure manpower can still evacuate.
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Jun 15, 2022 15:30
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Where's that Red Cross goon? I'd be interested in his take on this https://twitter.com/HumOutcomes/status/1535296343358394368?s=20&t=AmCToQeInDCn8AO1HZ7JDg The article in question: https://www.humanitarianoutcomes.org/Ukraine_review_June_2022 Commentary: https://twitter.com/emilytroutman/status/1536740476254138370?s=20&t=AmCToQeInDCn8AO1HZ7JDg https://twitter.com/emilytroutman/status/1536741742443220997?s=20&t=AmCToQeInDCn8AO1HZ7JDg https://twitter.com/emilytroutman/status/1536745487155482624?s=20&t=AmCToQeInDCn8AO1HZ7JDg https://twitter.com/emilytroutman/status/1536748647504822273?s=20&t=AmCToQeInDCn8AO1HZ7JDg
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Jun 15, 2022 15:40
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As suspected, a lot of foreign donation stuff will amount to “feel good” stuff until the crisis is over.
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Jun 15, 2022 15:44
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Neurolimal posted:Personally, I think it was a combination of factors; violently couping a Russia-sympathetic government, the drifting away from trade with Russia, the severe ramping up of strikes on Donetsk, the (completely empty, mind) threats of nuclear armament, and continued NATO pursuit. Most of which does not justify war, of course. I don't think Francis is saying "the war is just", rather that there were many clear signs of friction and offramps. I'm talking about the start of the war in 2014. It was about the EU trade agreement. BBC posted:Speaking during a visit to Italy, President Putin said Russia's economy would be hit if European goods - seen by Russian analysts as good-quality and relatively cheap - were allowed to transit through Ukraine tariff-free. The Guardian posted:"We don't want to use any kind of blackmail. This is a question for the Ukrainian people," said Glazyev. "But legally, signing this agreement about association with EU, the Ukrainian government violates the treaty on strategic partnership and friendship with Russia." When this happened, he said, Russia could no longer guarantee Ukraine's status as a state and could possibly intervene if pro-Russian regions of the country appealed directly to Moscow. From the horse's mouth: This is why we won't accept it and this is what we will do.
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Jun 15, 2022 15:48
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Rumours were flying that Putin is having some sort of cancer operation. Normally this is gossip noise, however Kadyrov came out saying that Putin is not in a coma, not being replaced and has a lively voice (https://theins.ru/news/252231) which is interesting Now if in the next few days Peskov denies that anything is wrong we'll be sure he's dead
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Jun 15, 2022 15:56
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Somaen posted:Rumours were flying that Putin is having some sort of cancer operation. Normally this is gossip noise, however Kadyrov came out saying that Putin is not in a coma, not being replaced and has a lively voice (https://theins.ru/news/252231) which is interesting It's probably the first time I had an inkling that it might be real. It's still most likely not, but it's the most suspicious one so far. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Jun 15, 2022 |
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Jun 15, 2022 16:01
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This seems like an interesting premise and I'm curious about your reasoning The man is hella old! He is already older than Yeltsin by the end of his presidency and in his next term he would catch up to Brezhnev, who is the reason "gerontocracy" is a term. Putin and his buddies have seen how extreme was the transfer in the 80s so they need to cover all the bases before health forces their hand. Thats why the last Constitution amendment created the State Council - presumably to provide Putin with quasi-retirement "father of the nation" post akin to what Nazarbayev done in Kazakhstan. Then the reset of term limits happened, so Putin will go for elections in 2024, but I just can't see him serving the term to the end when he is already set in his loopy old man problems. So, the war, just like the Crimean blitz, was intended to restore the public opinion and test the loyalty of the leadership - securing the strong position where it would have been possible to designate the team that would take the reins. Unfortunately for Putin, the war is already a long disaster, so the only thing that he is suceeding at is terrifying the "elites" and forcing them into the competion for being the most deranged hawk.
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Jun 15, 2022 16:09
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Maybe he's deliberately spreading rumors he is sick so he has an excuse for not having to take any more of Macron's calls
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Jun 15, 2022 16:10
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Paladinus posted:It's probably the first time I had an inkling that it might be real this time. It's still most like not, but it's the most suspicious one so far. I'm conflicted if it's better for him to live to be tried like a war criminal or to die ASAP Even if he does like with Zhirik we'll probably find out in a month  Probably too convenient to be true but the weird table grabbing and the investigative journalist reports into being followed by oncology surgeons seems to point he's a little bit hosed up
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Jun 15, 2022 16:15
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Tigey posted:Maybe he's deliberately spreading rumors he is sick so he has an excuse for not having to take any more of Macron's calls It would be easier to just say "the phone was at the other end of the table and I couldn't get to it in time."
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Jun 15, 2022 16:16
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https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1536977045086949381 Germany is currently seeking an exemption to sanctions so it can continue to receive Russian gas through NS1. quote:The federal government is trying to obtain delivery of the stuck turbine in Canada for the continued operation of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. According to SPIEGEL information, there are already contacts between the Ministry of Economics and the Canadian government and the EU Commission. The aim is a corresponding exemption from the Canadian sanctions. These are currently preventing extradition. quote:The turbines are needed to increase the necessary pressure of the natural gas in the pipeline. There are still doubts in the industry as to whether the missing part can explain the failure of 40 percent of the delivery. One weird trick, NATO hates it! https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1536916407912476672
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Jun 15, 2022 16:32
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1537068671494938625 China is surely drawing the conclusion that anything resembling peer conflict is ruinously expensive and a terrible value proposition even if you nominally "win". Their rational move is to sabre rattle Taiwan to boost local jingoism, and continue to grow economically. They have a pretty good deal going, why rock the boat?
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Jun 15, 2022 16:33
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Bug Squash posted:China is surely drawing the conclusion that anything resembling peer conflict is ruinously expensive and a terrible value proposition even if you nominally "win". Their rational move is to sabre rattle Taiwan to boost local jingoism, and continue to grow economically. They have a pretty good deal going, why rock the boat? If Ukraine has shown us anything, it is that different countries have different reasons, and thus different rationales, for their actions. China places a very high value on its economy, but it is not the only thing China values. Likewise, Russia is not attempting to conquer Ukraine for purely economic reasons (warm water ports! gas fields!), but for nationalistic and imperialistic reasons. If democracies want to dissuade autocracies and tyrannies from imperial adventures, they need to make the costs too high not only in economic terms, but in military ones as well.
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Jun 15, 2022 16:39
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Bug Squash posted:China is surely drawing the conclusion that anything resembling peer conflict is ruinously expensive and a terrible value proposition even if you nominally "win". Their rational move is to sabre rattle Taiwan to boost local jingoism, and continue to grow economically. They have a pretty good deal going, why rock the boat? Bret Stephens is one of the NY Times' resident conservatives. He's a big proponent of the US acting as "global policeman" and will ramp up any situation in order to justify that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bret_Stephens
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Jun 15, 2022 16:40
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Ynglaur posted:If Ukraine has shown us anything, it is that different countries have different reasons, and thus different rationales, for their actions. China places a very high value on its economy, but it is not the only thing China values. Likewise, Russia is not attempting to conquer Ukraine for purely economic reasons (warm water ports! gas fields!), but for nationalistic and imperialistic reasons. Although I'm sure that Putin also underestimated the scale of the sanctions and isolation (based on the weak-rear end poo poo in 2014) he also had to there would be significant consequences, and was fine with that. None of the damage russia is suffering now matters if he can secure at least what he's captured so far. He'll be the great savior and restorer of the empire and all the lost lives and opportunities would be seen as a minor, and worthwhile, sacrifice. The only option here is to make sure he does not succeed. Eric Cantonese posted:Bret Stephens is one of the NY Times' resident conservatives. He's a big proponent of the US acting as "global policeman" and will ramp up any situation in order to justify that.
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Jun 15, 2022 16:49
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https://twitter.com/laurentruseckas/status/1537062351823847430 https://t.me/gazprom/769
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Jun 15, 2022 16:59
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Owling Howl posted:I'm talking about the start of the war in 2014. It was about the EU trade agreement. As I said before, just because the reasons given are dry economical ones, does not mean the motivation is not something else. Which is born out by the fact that Russia has seemingly did what it said was going to do (by those quotes from 2013, sponsor separatist states, reduce the economy of and seek dissolution of Ukraine as an independent state). If it was dry economics, the statement was just negotiation (as the economy is hurt by the long term impacts of carrying out the threats more than the benefits), if it was more than economics, it was a statement of intent and the economy was a part of the accepted (if miscalculated) price. Was Germany big on Ukraine inclusion in the EU at the time, even at the expense of Russian aggravation? Is some of their reluctance now due to them feeling like being dragged into something they wanted no part of in the first place? If they were big proponents of it, then it is even more embarrassing for them to lack preparation and fortitude in support.
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Jun 15, 2022 17:00
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Atreiden posted:One weird trick, NATO hates it! Huh, so does it mean that declaring a war against a NATO member with intent of 
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Jun 15, 2022 17:00
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A bit late on the sanctions talks - but I have to chip on this, as I think there is too much focus on the utilitarian aspect. The sanctions (and even more so, the non-mandated boycotts/withdrawals) are not just aimed at degrading the Russian ability to manufacture military equipment and supplies, nor economic warfare against the Russian economy as a whole or interfering with Russia ability to trade with third parties (a lot of the sanctions indirectly make it hard/impossible to transact with nations friendly to Russia). Those are certainly part of the reason - although primarily the first one. A very important aspect is this is the one of ostracization, or de-globalisation. By embarking on a war of conquest without even a pretense of territorial claims, and then following up with war crimes (that many scholars categorize as actual genocide), the Russian regime has made itself an unacceptable partner for the (mainly) west. Some non-western countries have taken a similar stance, but I'm slightly surprised and disappointed, that many non-aligned countries are refusing to pass judgement. For my part, I do not see Russia as an acceptable trading partner until the current regime is gone. Even after the war. And I'm not the only one. While some in the west yearn for normalization in a post-war world - and consider the survival of Ukraine as a sovereign nation the only relevant criteria for success - I do not think we can, or should, normalize relations with Russia in the aftermath - unless the regime is gone. A fascist and warmongering nation is not a valid trade partner. For security reasons and for moral reasons. I'm perfectly fine with selling food and medicine, because this is not about punishing the Russian people or even about inciting them to overthrow the regime (although I hope they do). Hardships suffered by the Russian people is a bad thing. But we simply cannot trade with Russia until the regime is gone. It's that simple. In a hypothetical scenario where the war ends and Russia does not occupy any Ukrainian territory, but the regime is still in power - I strongly believe we should continue ostracizing Russia in an economic sense until the regime is gone. No access to global financial markets, only the bare minimum of economic transactions, no acceptance of inclusion in culture and sports. So it is almost irrelevant if sanctions are effective or not. They're not ineffective at hampering Russian military production or state economic power - but even so. It really isn't worth discussing if sanctions are working. Boycotts and sanctions must remain in place until the regime is gone. Those complicit in war crimes and genocide must face trial. I think we should take in emigrants and refugees from Russia, but we should not engage with the current regime 'for the sake of the Russian people'. Food and medicine - fine. Actual trade and economic integration? Nope. Once the regime is gone - the story is a different one. The Russian people do not deserve punishment or humiliation. Yes, there will be some who were cheering for the regime or varying degrees of complicit in the machinery of state. But apart from war criminals, that's not something which can, or should, be prosecuted. We should not aim for eternal enmity or isolation. But the current regime is just unacceptable on every level. Hence - permanent sanctions and boycott until it is gone.
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Jun 15, 2022 17:02
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Eric Cantonese posted:Bret Stephens is one of the NY Times' resident conservatives. He's a big proponent of the US acting as "global policeman" and will ramp up any situation in order to justify that. Neo-conservative. Mainstream conservatives seem to be realists or lunatics. The US and allies need to ready themselves for a war that ends in a way other than Putin being strung up like Mussolini.
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Jun 15, 2022 17:03
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Atreiden posted:https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1536977045086949381 Someone in the German foreign ministry may want to quickly review the ethnic make up of Canada before asking for stupid things. The only thing Canada is sending Russia at the moment are 155mm artillery rounds.
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Jun 15, 2022 17:14
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mobby_6kl posted:Although I'm sure that Putin also underestimated the scale of the sanctions and isolation (based on the weak-rear end poo poo in 2014) he also had to there would be significant consequences, and was fine with that. None of the damage russia is suffering now matters if he can secure at least what he's captured so far. He'll be the great savior and restorer of the empire and all the lost lives and opportunities would be seen as a minor, and worthwhile, sacrifice. I think we shouldn't dismiss the tremendous value in Russia being permanently beggarded to the extent that they are never again capable of waging an offensive war. The whole world is better off from that. Russia losing in the East would do that even better, and becomes more likely as sanctions continue, so going with both strategies is probably ideal.
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Jun 15, 2022 17:22
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MIC manufacturing lines go brrr https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1537081885591015424?s=20&t=RD__P5CbDIcvGkH9trCVYw
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Jun 15, 2022 17:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/laurentruseckas/status/1537062351823847430 Russia has also scheduled a 10-day maintenance period shutdown for mid-July. The German economic vice chancellor (and former Green Party leader) Robert Habeck has clearly identified that Russia is blatantly attempting to strong-arm Germany and divide NATO. Hopefully this causes Scholz, the SDP, and the German center-left as a whole to wake up to the shifting political winds. The time to shut down the pipeline is right now (if not months ago). This war isn't going anywhere, and regardless of the outcome Putin is going to keep disrupting the European energy supply any time there's an election, a bad market, a cold winter, or any other opportunity he can find. Kicking the can down the road and hoping that nothing happens is asking for trouble. The Register Citizen posted:Russia again cuts natural gas exports thru European pipeline Kaal fucked around with this message at 17:36 on Jun 15, 2022 |
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Jun 15, 2022 17:26
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KitConstantine posted:MIC manufacturing lines go brrr 36K artillery shells sounds impressive until you hear that's about 6 days worth of shells for Ukraine, or a bit over half a days worth of shells for Russia.
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Jun 15, 2022 17:30
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KitConstantine posted:MIC manufacturing lines go brrr Kyiv is a pretty iffy place for anti-ship missiles unless you're expecting an attack by river boats.
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Jun 15, 2022 18:12
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KitConstantine posted:MIC manufacturing lines go brrr What's the progress on the $40B of military aid announced by the USA last month? Has it been delivered?
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