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OddObserver posted:Kyiv is a pretty iffy place for anti-ship missiles unless you're expecting an attack by river boats. Somehow I doubt they're staying in Kyiv. Also could just be a shorthand referring to the Ukrainian government since Kyiv is the national seat.
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Jun 15, 2022 18:23
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Marenghi posted:36K artillery shells sounds impressive until you hear that's about 6 days worth of shells for Ukraine, or a bit over half a days worth of shells for Russia. The good news is that 36K of Ukrainian artillery shells will cause a larger effect than 36K of Russian artillery shells, due to the former being fired from more accurate platforms. But yes: Ukraine needs more ammunition, a lot of it, and quickly. I hope whatever factories make that stuff are working triple-shifts right now.
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Jun 15, 2022 18:33
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It doesn't seem like the US is financially or logistically capable of sending the degree and input of weapons required for Ukraine to be successful at this war. This is a WW3 level ground conflict that Western countries were betting on the USAF doing most of the heavy lifting for. Without the USAF nobody has the volume of artillery, cruise missiles, IFVs and tanks needed to carry this conflict. We need Afghan War levels of financial and material commitment in a far shorter period of time. That 40B is helpful but insufficient, you're gonna need 300B at least to stop Russia and I don't think there's enough political will.
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Jun 15, 2022 18:33
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Not So Fast posted:What's the progress on the $40B of military aid announced by the USA last month? Has it been delivered? I think thats where the 650 is coming from https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1537082639676583936
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Jun 15, 2022 18:39
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Kraftwerk posted:It doesn't seem like the US is financially or logistically capable of sending the degree and input of weapons required for Ukraine to be successful at this war. How did you arrive at 300bn figure and America’s impending inability to spend money on military equipment? Are you in a rough mood again?
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Jun 15, 2022 18:58
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KitConstantine posted:Somehow I doubt they're staying in Kyiv. Also could just be a shorthand referring to the Ukrainian government since Kyiv is the national seat. I am pretty sure it has been stated that the Harpoon systems sent by Denmark are deployed somewhere near Odessa. So Kyiv is indeed just a (lazy) shorthand for Ukraine in this case. I don't think those systems were ever anywhere near Kyiv.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:03
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https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1537130527450447872
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Jun 15, 2022 19:05
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I doubt re-taking it would go very smoothly due to a decade of brainwashing, if nothing else, but bombing a strategically important bridge isn't exactly the same as levering cities.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:09
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PederP posted:I am pretty sure it has been stated that the Harpoon systems sent by Denmark are deployed somewhere near Odessa. So Kyiv is indeed just a (lazy) shorthand for Ukraine in this case. I don't think those systems were ever anywhere near Kyiv. Does this mean metonymy is lazy? My Ukrainian friend on the front was wounded and is in hospital. He seems in good spirits and not life threatening.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:09
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Everybody who was Pro Ukraine in Crimea has left, or been ethnically purged, in the case of the Tartars.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:16
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Large scale long time shooty war eats a lot of ammunition, which is a logistical challenge when there are no accessible sea ports and the enemy can reach logistical hubs with missiles. So it's probably not the best idea to announce when huge ammunition convoys are on their way. The thing about ammunition is that you can deliver it in any truck or cargo train. It's harder to deny a column of trucks towing howitzers driving across the border. This is why I'm not sure if we hear about all ammo shipments and hopefully there is an ongoing silent effort to supply Ukrainian artillery.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:22
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cinci zoo sniper posted:How did you arrive at 300bn figure and America’s impending inability to spend money on military equipment? Are you in a rough mood again? Because the stuff Ukraine actually needs is very expensive, the training for it also costs money and it's not like a one and done thing, this stuff gets lost in combat. The huge volumes of money the US spent on GWOT was a slow burn attrition over the course of like 20 years. Now the level of reinforcements, ammunition etc is needed on scales far beyond that cadence. Ukraine needs a modernized airforce, it needs over 100 HIMARS launchers plus a cargoship full of rockets to keep them going. It needs a crash program to train up its troops in NATO standard equipment sooner rather than later because all those Soviet Era artillery pieces are gonna be out of ammo and there won't be any around on the NATO side to replace them anymore. We've literally used up the strategic stockpile of Warsaw Pact weapons they kept around for WW3 with West Germany, France, and the UK. Now we need modern NATO standard equipment that apparently everyone only has a bare minimum of just to say they have an army. So it falls on the US to manufacture and ship this stuff and it will probably cost in the hundreds of billions because of all the shortfalls in stuff like self-propelled artillery, MLRS and of course whatever IFVS and Tanks they'll eventually need for offensives. We're still not providing sufficient enough aid for Ukraine to really start winning battles. They're still out there with modified Warsaw Pact ++ equipment pressing any civillian vehicles they find into service because they lack the trucks and IFVs needed to move people and equipment. Who's to say that some of the aid we've already provided hasn't been completely obliterated at the ammo dumps when Russian artillery and cruise missiles started raining down on some key points. I get that they're out of precision equiipment but it doesn't matter if they can saturated an entire grid with shells and blow up a pile of javelins for AT duty or shells needed for counterbattery fire. How much of this equipment is getting lost before it even gets a chance to be fired in anger during a combat situation? Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Jun 15, 2022 |
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Jun 15, 2022 19:23
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Does this mean metonymy is lazy? Glad to hear your friend will recover - I hope it will be a full and speedy one. About the metonymy question - thank you (unironically) for making me aware of that concept. I think the 'capital as shorthand for country' feels lazy/off to me is because I consider it a reference to the regime/government, rather than the country. So "sending aid to Kyiv" vs "sending aid to Ukraine" to me carries an insinuation that the good of the government/state and the good of the country/people does not overlap fully. As in "we are angry at Moscow's invasion of Ukraine" vs "we are at Russia's invasion of Ukraine". The latter is technically more correct, but using the first makes a point that the Moscow regime is to blame in particular. I do realize, now that I think about it, that English seems to make more use metonymy using capitals vs countries than my native tongue. In Danish it would be very odd to substitute a capital for the country, whereas substituting a capital for the government is pretty normal. I'm not sure if it is the same in English. I guess lazy was the wrong word to use on my part, when there was actually a reason for my dislike of this particular substitution. I've noticed media here increasingly describe the Ukrainian government and military as not having popular support, talking about Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts as if they were entirely dominated by separatist sentiment pre-war, echoing Russian state media in regards to Kherson, and just a general slide towards considering this war as a civil war with Russian involvement rather than an actual invasion. It is really quite sad that western media fail to clearly place the responsibility and aggression with Putin, Moscow and Russia.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:25
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Kraftwerk posted:
There are still reserves untapped. Finland for example fields 152mm and 122mm SPGs and 152mm guns alongside more modern 155mm equipment. This comes with plenty of strategic stockpiles and the capacity to produce more during conflict. USA is far from the only nation that has figured out how to manufacture artillery shells.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:34
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PederP posted:Glad to hear your friend will recover - I hope it will be a full and speedy one. All of this was interesting to read. One of my biggest pet peeves recently was watching E3 announcements about the delay of games because of what's happening in Ukraine. No one willing (in English) to state clearly that Russian's invasion of Ukraine is what is causing STALKER 2 to be delayed. The increased fog of war that hangs over this stage of the war isn't helping I guess.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:34
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Kraftwerk posted:Because the stuff Ukraine actually needs is very expensive, the training for it also costs money and it's not like a one and done thing, this stuff gets lost in combat. The huge volumes of money the US spent on GWOT was a slow burn attrition over the course of like 20 years. I don't think it's impossible to do though. Ukraine is fighting just russia, and while they do have a ton of stockpiles of old ammo and vehicles, they're not infinite. The US has enormous stockpiles of all sorts of gear too, and EU+NATO has an order of magnitude more capacity to supply Ukraine. With some countries (not pointing fingers) still talking about humiliation or rocket range, it seems that this is more a question of will, not ability.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:34
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Kaal posted:Russia has also scheduled a 10-day maintenance period shutdown for mid-July. The German economic vice chancellor (and former Green Party leader) Robert Habeck has clearly identified that Russia is blatantly attempting to strong-arm Germany and divide NATO. Hopefully this causes Scholz, the SDP, and the German center-left as a whole to wake up to the shifting political winds. The time to shut down the pipeline is right now (if not months ago). This war isn't going anywhere, and regardless of the outcome Putin is going to keep disrupting the European energy supply any time there's an election, a bad market, a cold winter, or any other opportunity he can find. Kicking the can down the road and hoping that nothing happens is asking for trouble. Hopefully at some point in the near future, Germany will realize they are not dealing with a faithful actor in the RF. I hope at some point they look retrospectively about how they got into this jam, and punish those who got them in this position, either through direct payoffs or willful/malicious ignorance, and get rid of them. I mean, to look at the last 10 years of RF actions, and declare that 'yes, I want to stake my countries energy policy on the good faith of the RF' is just incredible incompetence.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:34
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I feel like there's a big element of people assuming stuff not discussed in public (because it shouldn't be discussed in public due to OPSEC) means it doesn't exist.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:52
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Paladinus posted:It's probably the first time I had an inkling that it might be real. It's still most likely not, but it's the most suspicious one so far. Putin has had a thyroid cancer specialist (Yevgeny Selivanov) always in his entourage for four years now. Wherever he goes, an oncologist goes with him. The sensible inference is that he has thyroid cancer. The sad part about this, and the reason why all the tabloids are not talking about it, instead making all other kinds of bogus diagnoses up from proverbial tea leaves, is that with modern treatment, thyroid cancer is only very rarely fatal. 5-year survival rate in the USA is 98%, and that includes all the people who wait too long and don't get proper early treatment. You do need have a bunch of operations which leave you weak for a while, plus medicine and chemotherapy which can also account for his appearance. Somaen posted:I'm conflicted if it's better for him to live to be tried like a war criminal or to die ASAP He will not be tried as a war criminal. There is no possible future where that happens. He will not voluntarily step on a plane to go to Hague while he remains in power, and he is too dangerous to any successor for there to be any kind of actual transition of power where he remains alive. If he loses power, he dies. Somaen posted:Even if he does like with Zhirik we'll probably find out in a month Yeah, this is a safe bet. If he dies, someone will be left with his body. If that someone wants to be his successor, or wants to be in the good graces of someone who will be his successor, there is massive value in concealing his death for a time. There are preparations that you'd want to do, which you can't do while he still lives because they would look too much like a coup attempt. Also, there are probably decisions that his successor wants to blame on him. So yes, if he dies, whether through natural causes or murder, the way we'd find out is that he just stops doing appearances for a long while, and then after a while "he just recently died of COVID". Not So Fast posted:What's the progress on the $40B of military aid announced by the USA last month? Has it been delivered? No. The bill didn't give anything directly, it just gave the POTUS the authority to spend money. This is part of that.
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Jun 15, 2022 19:58
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sean10mm posted:I feel like there's a big element of people assuming stuff not discussed in public (because it shouldn't be discussed in public due to OPSEC) means it doesn't exist. I try to hedge all my speculation with this disclaimer of course. But initially everyone's been extremely open about all weapon shipments. We're sending T72s! We're sending DANAs! M777s! MiG-29s! Wait never mind. And then.... *crickets*. Oh hey 4 HMARS.
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Jun 15, 2022 20:02
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sean10mm posted:I feel like there's a big element of people assuming stuff not discussed in public (because it shouldn't be discussed in public due to OPSEC) means it doesn't exist. I mean the specifics of shuttling Ukrainian soldiers around for training and when/where arms shipments will arrive will be OPSEC but ramping up production and setting up logistics are big operations of scale that would be hard to keep under wraps even if they don't get official press releases.
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Jun 15, 2022 20:41
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Nenonen posted:There are still reserves untapped. Finland for example fields 152mm and 122mm SPGs and 152mm guns alongside more modern 155mm equipment. This comes with plenty of strategic stockpiles and the capacity to produce more during conflict. USA is far from the only nation that has figured out how to manufacture artillery shells. I believe there was a piece of news a few months back how Finnish ammunition factories (factory? how many there are?) are already working at full capacity because every single bullet they make is being bought by existing customers. Can't imagine it is much different for artillery shells. So any shells provided would probably have to come from the existing reserves and I don't see FDF giving those up easily in this situation.
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Jun 15, 2022 20:44
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Hey - at least people don't refer to the government of your country as a city in which the government doesn't actually reside. 
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Jun 15, 2022 21:22
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CNN is reporting a couple Americans fighting for Ukraine are missing in action. It will be interesting to see what/if the reaction from Americans at large is.
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Jun 15, 2022 21:52
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Ynglaur posted:CNN is reporting a couple Americans fighting for Ukraine are missing in action. It will be interesting to see what/if the reaction from Americans at large is. https://twitter.com/TFBaguette/status/1537001641114746880 The fact that they've not been trotted out yet for TV makes me think they're dead
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Jun 15, 2022 21:57
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https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia 200-500 dead per day. This phase of the war has been brutal for Ukraine. I haven't seen many updates on Russian casualties but my understanding is they are down from earlier.
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Jun 15, 2022 21:57
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Ynglaur posted:CNN is reporting a couple Americans fighting for Ukraine are missing in action. It will be interesting to see what/if the reaction from Americans at large is. I guess there is the media beatup but Americans getting knocked over as private contractors is/was a pretty common occurrence. Not as common as kids getting shot in school but you know, priorities.
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Jun 15, 2022 21:57
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1537172458238877706 full briefing can be watched here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK3VvBhZrnM Atreiden fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Jun 15, 2022 |
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Jun 15, 2022 22:01
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Electric Wrigglies posted:I guess there is the media beatup but Americans getting knocked over as private contractors is/was a pretty common occurrence. Not as common as kids getting shot in school but you know, priorities. Please keep USPol out of this thread.
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Jun 15, 2022 22:21
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sean10mm posted:I feel like there's a big element of people assuming stuff not discussed in public (because it shouldn't be discussed in public due to OPSEC) means it doesn't exist. Yeah the flow of stuff into Ukraine isn't even in the ballpark of public knowledge. people were hemming and hawing about how ukraine is getting nothing and is about to have to surrender the same day that half a dozen 50ton spgs were getting moved into Ukraine and lol no one had any idea that was happening until it was announced. That's just about the least conspicuous thing possible to move and if people aren't aware that poo poo like that is moving, I don't believe for a second that they have an accurate picture of what else is moving. That's also how almost all of the transfers have happened: they're only announced after delivery, if they're announced at all.
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Jun 15, 2022 22:26
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Ynglaur posted:CNN is reporting a couple Americans fighting for Ukraine are missing in action. It will be interesting to see what/if the reaction from Americans at large is. Americans know quite well that people die in wars so it will not cause a hubbub. I don't believe I've ever said, or used the word hubbub before but there it is.
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Jun 15, 2022 22:41
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I’ve been a bit busy today, so this is catching me with mild surprise. https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1537128968968720390 I’ve seen the meeting rumours before - do we know where the exact date comes from?
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Jun 15, 2022 22:43
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Spiegel also has them visiting on Thursday. To be exact, he has already left for the visit. At the same time, our (German) defence minister has announced that we will only deliver three MLRS instead of four.Delivery date is end of July/beginning of August. DTurtle fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Jun 15, 2022 |
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Jun 15, 2022 22:57
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haha Bloomberg says A German government spokesperson declined to comment on Scholz’s plans. A Macron aide said he had no information about the upcoming trip. Spokespeople for Draghi and Iohannis declined to comment on any travel plans. and Figaro reports that Macron hints at going but can't confirm. Everybody is keeping their mouths shut about it. Anybody that spills the beans on this is getting a visit from the cops.
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Jun 15, 2022 22:59
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Cheers, folks.
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Jun 15, 2022 23:28
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Miller chiming in about KIA: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1537147674998325250?s=20&t=6-gHULELi9wq_uOyAtzfUA
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Jun 15, 2022 23:38
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Kinda lacking the combat footage for those losses imo
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Jun 16, 2022 00:11
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FishBulbia posted:Kinda lacking the combat footage for those losses imo There's a poo poo ton of combat footage in this war from both sides. A lot of it is drone footage but you can clearly see people getting blown up. On Reddit the subreddit is r/combatfootage but be forewarned it can be really gruesome. I looked at it for like 5 mins and that was enough for me.
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Jun 16, 2022 00:31
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Xander77 posted:Hey - at least people don't refer to the government of your country as a city in which the government doesn't actually reside. The way to do it is to name the capital <Country> City so it's all the same thing.
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Jun 16, 2022 00:43
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The X-man cometh posted:The way to do it is to name the capital <Country> City so it's all the same thing. Or just name everything Bob On topic, I can imagine Ukraine may have lost 1000 soldiers one day, they are making a large push in the south and if things got rough one particular day in Sievierdonetsk it's easy to have that line up to make a very bad day. But if it was much more than 100 a day being lost I don't think these lines would be moving as slowly as they are. But saying they're losing more can only help. Anyone inclined not to believe them jumped ship to either not caring or straight-up supporting Russia months ago. It keeps the pressure on the international community to keep ramping up support, which is vital no matter what the losses numbers are. So I can't really blame them for exaggerating
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Jun 16, 2022 00:49
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