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A big flaming stink posted:I presume we're ignoring the breathless proclamations of dwindling supplies from the various OSINT weirdos when we talk about mid June being the consensus date? looking at u bellingcat Well what will a Russian supply crisis look like from where we are sitting? Russian forces haven't really moved in a week and in the weeks prior to that they took maybe a mile of land per day. That seems like about what we would expect? It's not like the Russian army just disintegrates when supplies get scarce - people can still sit in their trenches and play defense just fine. Offensive operations gets more difficult though because you really can't attack without spare parts, fuel and ammunition.
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Jun 18, 2022 06:45
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Neurolimal posted:This is probably a part of it as well as the fact that in the current situation the US MIC & co can throw spitballs at Russia for losing more recent armor to a ragtag force and hype Javelins. If modern US/NATO equipment gets into the fray, and it gets destroyed at about the same pace as the old Soviet gear, it calls into question all the technical doodads the MIC has hyped over the years as War Changers. Same reason Russia is reticent about using its newer tanks. I don't know about Apache's, but the Abrams has an export version which doesn't have the same high-quality armor the US version uses. I imagine it probably doesn't include quite the same electronics either. Regardless the US has systems it has no gripes selling off to non-NATO countries. Still needs to supply parts, training and mechanics, but I don't think there's much concern of prestige or vulnerabilities if they just give Ukraine these versions. And while the US Abrams have an excellent history, they have been taken out by IED's and the occasional ambush. They are fantastic tanks, but no one expects them to be invincible, and neutering Russia's military I imagine is much more important than the perceived strength of a tank that version 1 of entered service 40 years ago.
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Jun 18, 2022 06:51
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Owling Howl posted:Well what will a Russian supply crisis look like from where we are sitting? I'm referring to bellingcats breathless missives from a couple months ago regularly predicting the logistical collapse of Russia's forces
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Jun 18, 2022 06:56
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Owling Howl posted:Well what will a Russian supply crisis look like from where we are sitting? The army disintegrates when it starts having bandwidth issues in terms of dealing with counter offensives. If the ukrainians are able to snap or siege supply lines. They will cause routes to occur just to get the gently caress away from the arty Now on the topic of Russia collapse. Taking on Ukraine was an attempt at thwarting the third collapse of Russia. But what does that collapse look like? At this point I think it may mean the provinces become a new alliance system with blockades and cross region checkpoints aswell as depopulation of Siberian regions. If the Russian rail system cannot get foreign parts it will collapse and with it the empires transportation of goods.
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Jun 18, 2022 07:06
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A big flaming stink posted:I'm referring to bellingcats breathless missives from a couple months ago regularly predicting the logistical collapse of Russia's forces You seem to be deliberately misinterpreting the claims. He made the point that BTGs brought three weeks of supplies with them into battle. After that they needed resupply. The inability to resupply became a critical issue in the battle of Kyiv, and Russian troops had to abandon scores of vehicles that were out of fuel and flee. They were absolutely right. The Russian advance stalled after about three weeks, then ended in a near rout after resupply of the western branch around Kyiv turned comically complicated to impossible. Deteriorata fucked around with this message at 07:16 on Jun 18, 2022 |
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Jun 18, 2022 07:10
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A big flaming stink posted:I'm referring to bellingcats breathless missives from a couple months ago regularly predicting the logistical collapse of Russia's forces Sure - what does it look like and how can we tell if it happens? I don’t know what the supply situation is for Russian frontline troops and the Russian MOD won't tell us so instead we have to look at how they operate and what goals they pursue to make inferences. So looking at the current situation would one suppose the Russian army is well or poorly supplied? Well personally I would expect the bulk of the professional Russian army to make larger gains a lot faster if they had all the things they needed. Probably they do not have all the things they need then. Does it constitute a supply crisis or logistical collapse? I don't know - someone has to define those terms and tell us what we should expect to see if it happened.
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Jun 18, 2022 07:12
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Neurolimal posted:This is probably a part of it as well as the fact that in the current situation the US MIC & co can throw spitballs at Russia for losing more recent armor to a ragtag force and hype Javelins. If modern US/NATO equipment gets into the fray, and it gets destroyed at about the same pace as the old Soviet gear, it calls into question all the technical doodads the MIC has hyped over the years as War Changers. Same reason Russia is reticent about using its newer tanks. I don't think you're going to get a lot of takers for the "actually, Russia is holding back, they haven't sent in the good stuff yet" hypothesis here.
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Jun 18, 2022 07:17
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Quixzlizx posted:I don't think you're going to get a lot of takers for the "actually, Russia is holding back, they haven't sent in the good stuff yet" hypothesis here. I think you've severely misread my tone if you believe the point is "theres a superweapon that will save Ukraine/allow Russia to blitz again".
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Jun 18, 2022 07:37
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A big flaming stink posted:I'm referring to bellingcats breathless missives from a couple months ago regularly predicting the logistical collapse of Russia's forces feelings towards bellingcat aside, if someone predicted that russia would run out of logistical steam for their offensives in mid june then it sure looks like they called it dead on
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Jun 18, 2022 07:49
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Neurolimal posted:I think you've severely misread my tone if you believe the point is "theres a superweapon that will save Ukraine/allow Russia to blitz again". It's called an LRBM.
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Jun 18, 2022 07:50
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Herstory Begins Now posted:feelings towards bellingcat aside, if someone predicted that russia would run out of logistical steam for their offensives in mid june then it sure looks like they called it dead on Also, if Russia had kept on with the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa fronts they'd be running out of *everything* by now. Only by putting everything in the Donbas did they slow the bleeding temporarily.
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Jun 18, 2022 08:06
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Some good news, even though it would have been better if they had restarted it much earlier. https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1537910087997476865
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Jun 18, 2022 08:09
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A big flaming stink posted:I'm referring to bellingcats breathless missives from a couple months ago regularly predicting the logistical collapse of Russia's forces The circumstances were different back then though too. Russian forces were still trying to take Kyiv and way overextended. The logistics issues they were having combined with their military stance was where the predicted collapse would've come into play. But then the Russians realized they were screwed if they kept trying to take Kyiv and would likely lose a huge portion of their army. So they retreated, regrouped, and focused on trying to take the Eastern portions of Ukraine by the sea instead. This helped their logistical issues by allowing them to use rail instead of trucks and shrunk their lines by a whole lot. Apparently it didn't entirely fix their logistical problems though and there are constant complaints by Russian soldiers leaking out of shortages of certain types of ammo, equipment, and other supplies. Trucks and other small or lightly armored vehicles are in such short supply that the Russians have had to resort to having as many people as possible climb on to the outside of tanks and IFV's for transportation. As near as anyone can tell their logistics are still bad but nowhere near as bad as they were months ago. If some of their rail lines get cut then that could easily change things. Cutting those rail lines seems to be a big problem though. PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 08:48 on Jun 18, 2022 |
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Jun 18, 2022 08:42
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Owling Howl posted:It's not like the Russian army just disintegrates when supplies get scarce - people can still sit in their trenches and play defense just fine. Offensive operations gets more difficult though because you really can't attack without spare parts, fuel and ammunition. Presumably Russia has a better supply of fuel because of their massive petroindustry, provided that their logistics work. In the Kyiv offensive they had too many units moving too far through one road for the supply columns to keep up, and there also was no preparation for stiff resistance. Currently they are progressing so slowly that setting new supply depots is not an issue. Producing ammunition is probably also no issue. More modern stuff needing high end electronics is limited to finding components from liberated washing machines, but for anything produced for Soviet army they should be able to manufacture with domestic components. More sophisticated spare parts will be an issue and there may come a downgrade overall. It's a bit of a mystery how well Russia can ramp up the production of parts for decades old equipment, not because they are hard to make but because there is so much of it and there has been little need to make e.g. spare engine parts for a T-62 when you can just cannibalise other rust cans so how well can they restart it? With the endemic corruption in Russian government at all levels, it will be interesting to see what sort of train wreck it will be.
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Jun 18, 2022 09:51
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Nenonen posted:Presumably Russia has a better supply of fuel because of their massive petroindustry, provided that their logistics work. In the Kyiv offensive they had too many units moving too far through one road for the supply columns to keep up, and there also was no preparation for stiff resistance. Currently they are progressing so slowly that setting new supply depots is not an issue. Regarding their petrochemical/gas industry; just how high tech is it and how far can they dumb it down to account for all the eventual wear and tear on that infrastructure?
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Jun 18, 2022 11:09
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https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1538129392001499137?cxt=HHwWgoCyzYuixNgqAAAA
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Jun 18, 2022 13:36
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Lukashenko emerging as a true statesman, offering protection to Ukraine from wily, malicious Poles https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1538010685153587202
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Jun 18, 2022 13:45
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the popes toes posted:Lukashenko emerging as a true statesman, offering protection to Ukraine from wily, malicious Poles hah was about to post the same. He seems a bit out there. Also watch this video of him complaining about not being made a colonel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JNtiO7nhmo
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Jun 18, 2022 13:52
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the popes toes posted:Lukashenko emerging as a true statesman, offering protection to Ukraine from wily, malicious Poles Time to form a Terijoki government, looks like
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Jun 18, 2022 13:58
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https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1538093080456351745Nenonen posted:Time to form a Terijoki government, looks like Finally an ecologically friendly politics choice.
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Jun 18, 2022 14:08
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Recruiting/Training pipeline woes. https://twitter.com/arisroussinos/status/1538055771165970433?s=21&t=2EogARfTfefvZtCHBMtPDA
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Jun 18, 2022 15:24
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mlmp08 posted:Recruiting/Training pipeline woes. every sector of the political compass at once quote:“Right Sector is a Christian, conservative organisation. Okay? Done,” he told me in his office cluttered with piles of books — Aristotle, Kafka, Umberto Eco — a postcard of Ernst Jünger propped on his bookcase next to the cafetiere and scent diffuser. “Like, I’m a liberal. I support LGBT, I have, like, all the time conversations about that here with the guys, and you know what, here I have freedom of speech to say that.” Jungerian-Kafka Thought FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 15:56 on Jun 18, 2022 |
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Jun 18, 2022 15:37
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Heard from someone on the ground there this was coming before it happened and the type of soldier in the volunteer corps was not great, to put it mildly.
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Jun 18, 2022 16:30
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quote:Today was a good day for Pedro. He’s brought all his men back unharmed from another mission, and the target was destroyed. The following day, Pedro, who has an ongoing social media feud with mercenaries from the far-Right Russian Wagner Group on the other side of the frontline, in which they threaten to kill each other, would show drone footage of the Russian soldiers in their trenches getting obliterated by his mortar fire on his phone, overlaid with a death metal soundtrack and cry-laughter emojis. Welcome to war in 2022.
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Jun 18, 2022 16:31
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Not really seeing much difference between this and stuff like "every 7 seconds a German soldier dies in Stalingrad" to be honest.
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Jun 18, 2022 16:53
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FishBulbia posted:every sector of the political compass at once We found the libertarians
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Jun 18, 2022 16:59
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Klaus88 posted:Not really seeing much difference between this and stuff like "every 7 seconds a German soldier dies in Stalingrad" to be honest. Soviet and Nazi soldiers probably weren't arguing with each other on Twitter and sending each other combat video memes on TikTok.
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Jun 18, 2022 17:01
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steinrokkan posted:Soviet and Nazi soldiers probably weren't arguing with each other on Twitter and sending each other combat video memes on TikTok. Oh cross-lines propaganda has been a thing forever. e: an interesting thread https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1537762734061797377 https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1537763187608670208 'The regime tells us we are fighting an existential war against all of NATO, but actually we would like more spending on pensions' https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1537764187732156418 1/4 of the people they interviewed had lost their jobs since the war began Alchenar fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Jun 18, 2022 |
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Jun 18, 2022 17:10
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KillHour posted:We found the libertarians Ideology built like a Mass Effect script
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Jun 18, 2022 17:15
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Link please. I really dislike having any anonymous quotes in the thread.
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Jun 18, 2022 17:17
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Alchenar posted:
No, 1/4 of people "knew someone close to them" who lost a job. Only 1/50 lost their job, so Navalny’s tweet is off by like… more than an order of magnitude. Also without knowing what the normal number is, that’s not a very meaningful statistic. I know someone that lost their job in the last 3 months in Western Europe too, but it’s not because of the war in Ukraine either.
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Jun 18, 2022 18:09
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Saladman posted:No, 1/4 of people "knew someone close to them" who lost a job. Only 1/50 lost their job, so Navalny’s tweet is off by like… more than an order of magnitude. My mistake, Good catch.
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Jun 18, 2022 18:32
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In hindsight it definitly seems like western arrogance to believe that the threat of cutting Russia off from the Global Treat Market could meaningfully deter Putin
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Jun 18, 2022 18:58
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Alchenar posted:My mistake, Good catch. The OP made that claim too so it seems like he's trying to publish his preconceived conclusions regardless of what the polls say. With the current economic conditions I wouldn't be surprised if most westerners are similarly pessimistic.
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Jun 18, 2022 19:07
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FishBulbia posted:In hindsight it definitly seems like western arrogance to believe that the threat of cutting Russia off from the Global Treat Market could meaningfully deter Putin I don't think anyone believed it would meaningfully deter Putin. It was pretty clear nothing would. It was a move to contain him, to limit the amount of damage he could do by isolating his economy and make the cost of invasion as high as possible.
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Jun 18, 2022 19:13
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Deteriorata posted:I don't think anyone believed it would meaningfully deter Putin. It was pretty clear nothing would. It was a move to contain him, to limit the amount of damage he could do by isolating his economy and make the cost of invasion as high as possible. Biden and Co were invoking the language of deterrence pre-invasion though, wrt sanctions
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Jun 18, 2022 19:17
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Deteriorata posted:I don't think anyone believed it would meaningfully deter Putin. It was pretty clear nothing would. It was a move to contain him, to limit the amount of damage he could do by isolating his economy and make the cost of invasion as high as possible. I don't think it can be overstated how important it is also to make the point that if anyone else had thoughts of going full Lebensraumblitzkrieg on their neighbours, they would get sanctioned hard af. Exceptions can be made for the glorious sultanate of Türkiye and the similarly brave nation of KSA, who have always been our friends
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Jun 18, 2022 19:21
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FishBulbia posted:Biden and Co were invoking the language of deterrence pre-invasion though, wrt sanctions IMO Biden was very consistent about saying he knew for sure Russia was going to attack. If he made remarks dissuading Putin from escalation (he did), that's just normal diplomatic form and doesn't say much about his beliefs.
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Jun 18, 2022 19:22
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FishBulbia posted:Biden and Co were invoking the language of deterrence pre-invasion though, wrt sanctions I think that was more along the lines of making the current invasion painful enough that he (and others) would be deterred from doing something similar in the future. Quote something if you think otherwise.
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Jun 18, 2022 19:23
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