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I don't think I saw this posted yet - somehow the verbatim transcript of a call between Macron and Putin 4 days before the war was leaked, and a french outlet printed it all https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1540719786287435777?s=20&t=AJTxxw_jqobiotbDI717WQ https://www.letemps.ch/monde/emmanu...ampaign=article A few selections: quote:Discussion of Minsk accords and the sepratists attempting to dictate policy to the Ukrainian government quote:Emmanuel Macron: This is the most...egregious? to me, though the call goes a bit after this quote:Emmanuel Macron:
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Jun 27, 2022 03:16
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And I always have a lot of fun talking to you because we are in a relationship of trust. 
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Rigel posted:Once their reserve runs out, they will have to scale back dramatically. They do not have the ability to make 60,000 shells a day. Then they will be firing at each other at about the same rate except Ukraine's artillery will hit what it is aimed at, from further away. I’m not sure it’s constructive to repeat in certain terms things we cannot ascertain, that they’ll run out of dumb shells or cannot procure them swiftly enough.
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Jun 27, 2022 03:25
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KitConstantine posted:I don't think I saw this posted yet - somehow the verbatim transcript of a call between Macron and Putin 4 days before the war was leaked, and a french outlet printed it all I don't actually see what is egregious with this? Macron was trying to avoid war. Naive yes, but remember, NATO tried for years to negotiate with the Taliban. If there was a chance, however slim, to avoid this conflict by multi-lateral dialogue, a leader would have a moral and political imperative to attempt it. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 03:34 on Jun 27, 2022 |
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Jun 27, 2022 03:29
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FishBulbia posted:I don't actually see what is egregious with this? Macron was trying to avoid war. Naive yes, but remember, NATO tried for years to negotiate with the Taliban. The particular line I'm referring to is the one where Putin says they have a relationship based on trust which is just loving darkly hilarious now. Macron saying Putin "shouldn't react to any provocations" is also pretty rich in hindsight, knowing that Putin was planning the invasion for months
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Jun 27, 2022 03:33
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KitConstantine posted:I don't think I saw this posted yet - somehow the verbatim transcript of a call between Macron and Putin 4 days before the war was leaked, and a french outlet printed it all Someone should buy Putin an account so he can practise some less embarrassing arguments for whitewashing his war. 
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Jun 27, 2022 03:35
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His claim that zelensky was the maidan government is pretty rich considering that 1) zelensky was trying poroshenko for treason 2) the radicals of the maidan set considered zelensky and crypto-moskal 5th column
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Jun 27, 2022 03:36
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FishBulbia posted:His claim that zelensky was the maidan government is pretty rich considering that 1) zelensky was trying poroshenko for treason 2) the radicals of the maidan set considered zelensky and crypto-moskal 5th column Also like in 2014 he was a comedian recording the Ukranian dub of Paddington Bear and nowhere near anything government. Or maybe Putin thinks Maidan was caused by marmalade madness or something. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Jun 27, 2022 |
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Jun 27, 2022 04:45
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Also like in 2014 he was a comedian recording the Ukranian dub of Paddington Bear. What did Paddington know and when did he know it
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Jun 27, 2022 04:50
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Also like in 2014 he was a comedian recording the Ukranian dub of Paddington Bear and nowhere near anything government. Leaked footage of zelensky 2014 maidan activity for the homonazi cause https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgOSrw9Q8rc FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 04:57 on Jun 27, 2022 |
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Jun 27, 2022 04:54
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Chill Monster posted:Also I have no idea if China or India even manufactures soviet-compatible artillery, but maybe someone else does. Hannibal Rex posted:Some 2-3 weeks back, there was a separatist account that they were running out of 122mm ammo for the artillery pieces Russia gave them, as it's no longer producing shells for those. They had to be reequipped and retrained on old 152mm pieces from stockpiles.  I couldn't find anything definitive about the 152mm and nothing about India. Edit: KitConstantine posted:Map time! KitConstantine posted:I don't think I saw this posted yet - somehow the verbatim transcript of a call between Macron and Putin 4 days before the war was leaked, and a french outlet printed it all Cable Guy fucked around with this message at 08:30 on Jun 27, 2022 |
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Jun 27, 2022 08:17
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Rigel posted:Once their reserve runs out, they will have to scale back dramatically. They do not have the ability to make 60,000 shells a day. Then they will be firing at each other at about the same rate except Ukraine's artillery will hit what it is aimed at, from further away. Another point to bear in mind is that those reserves are never, ever, going to fill up again. Russia is burning through 60-80 years of military planning for these inches of land. Even if the war ends on bad terms, Russia has permanently depleted it's ability to defend the land it's taken, and entirely lost it's ability to seriously threaten nearby peers like Finland.
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Jun 27, 2022 08:33
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https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1541324860894466048?cxt=HHwWgMC-ke6y8eMqAAAA Another Russian/LDNR ammo depo going off in Zymohiria, Luhansk
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Jun 27, 2022 09:25
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Charlotte Hornets posted:https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1541324860894466048?cxt=HHwWgMC-ke6y8eMqAAAA It sounds like Ukrainian military intelligence is a week or so ahead of where we are with discussions of artillery ammunition and is directing attacks on them. We don't have hard numbers of course, but if the Ukrainians are going after some aspect of Russian logistics specifically that is a pretty clear sign it's something they think is a point of catastrophic failure.
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Jun 27, 2022 09:27
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Bug Squash posted:Another point to bear in mind is that those reserves are never, ever, going to fill up again. Russia is burning through 60-80 years of military planning for these inches of land. Even if the war ends on bad terms, Russia has permanently depleted it's ability to defend the land it's taken, and entirely lost it's ability to seriously threaten nearby peers like Finland. I don't think you have a sense of the scale that modern industrial production can achieve. In three years (2011 to 2013) China poured more concrete than the US did during the entire 20th century. I have no doubt that a brand new factory built in the last 10 years or so could output more daily than a 1960-1980's soviet plant could in a month.
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Jun 27, 2022 09:36
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Morrow posted:We don't have hard numbers of course, but if the Ukrainians are going after some aspect of Russian logistics specifically that is a pretty clear sign it's something they think is a point of catastrophic failure. I wouldn't make such sure declarations but the ability to reliably hit ammunition stockpiles should be positive for Ukraine forces on that front. Who knows how many are left, probably a lot, especially if they were at territory Russia controlled for past 8 years.
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Jun 27, 2022 10:09
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Electric Wrigglies posted:I don't think you have a sense of the scale that modern industrial production can achieve. In three years (2011 to 2013) China poured more concrete than the US did during the entire 20th century. I have no doubt that a brand new factory built in the last 10 years or so could output more daily than a 1960-1980's soviet plant could in a month. While it's not necessarily untrue that this level of modern production is possible, it relies on a few assumptions 1. does the national supply chain of materials used in the construction of artillery munitions scale up at a matching rate to the potential of newer, hyperproductive factories? (probably not) 2. does the russian government really display the same kind of functionality for production as the example china sets (definitely not) 3. does the russian government have the means to rapidly and accountably contract for the rapid construction and activation of such advanced, newer facilities? (lol)
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Jun 27, 2022 10:13
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Cable Guy posted:I do still like the way the French spell Putin's name like he's a regional Canadian dish of mashed spuds and gravy though Well, the original is in cyrillic, so 'Putin' is already a custom spelling. And if you spelled it 'Putin' in french, then it would sound exactly like 'putain', which is rather rude slang for a lady in the business of short-term body rental. The 'e' at the end is critical to make it sound like the english 'in'. For another amusing one, if Lenin was spelled like that in french, it would sound like 'Le nain' (the dwarf). Hence why in French it's spelled 'Lénine'.
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Jun 27, 2022 10:32
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Kavros posted:While it's not necessarily untrue that this level of modern production is possible, it relies on a few assumptions Russia appears to be living off the corpse of the CCCP and that can only carry you so far though they haven't gotten down to the bones just yet. ------- Nice to see all those ammo dumps going boom. 
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Jun 27, 2022 10:34
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Also like in 2014 he was a comedian recording the Ukranian dub of Paddington Bear and nowhere near anything government. Zelensky is just a role he is playing as the front of a Jewish homonatozi cabal
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Jun 27, 2022 10:36
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Electric Wrigglies posted:I don't think you have a sense of the scale that modern industrial production can achieve. In three years (2011 to 2013) China poured more concrete than the US did during the entire 20th century. I have no doubt that a brand new factory built in the last 10 years or so could output more daily than a 1960-1980's soviet plant could in a month.
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Jun 27, 2022 11:10
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1541356509275344897
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Jun 27, 2022 11:29
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The Russians have more than enough industrial capacity to reallocate more factories to shell production. Kidding aside, what it is really going to come down to is the actual artillery pieces. Ukraine now has effective counter-artillery and is going to whittle away Russians modern pieces, forcing them to rely more on old and semi reliable guns. It seems at this rate Ukraine will have 100s of modern NATO pieces and trained crew come fall/winter, and you will probably see Russian artillery crews taking similar casualties as their infrantry friends.
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Jun 27, 2022 11:29
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https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1541381681000628224 What’s the occasion for dicks out F-35, any guesses?
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Jun 27, 2022 13:30
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1541381681000628224 Just snooping probably.
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Jun 27, 2022 13:46
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1541381681000628224 Practice runs toward Snake Island. They're hanging around the Danube delta. Something I've noticed here in the US is that helicopters from local bases are tending to fly much lower than usual. They're not being unsafe--lots of residential areas--and I don't think they lowered the minimum allowable altitude, but they're all flying at that minimum altitude rather than the higher, more leisurely altitudes they've tended to use. (No, this doesn't mean WW3 is about to go down or anything - it just speaks to the US military buttoning its stuff up and being more deliberate about readiness and training.)
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Jun 27, 2022 14:00
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New Salty Girkin - below tweets summarize the concluding paragraphs only, the full post goes into specifics regarding various attack axes https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1541396114162712576?s=20&t=p6UTItc7Ml9II20Cv-ZylQ https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1541396116083703809?s=20&t=p6UTItc7Ml9II20Cv-ZylQ https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1541396117828534274?s=20&t=p6UTItc7Ml9II20Cv-ZylQ https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1541396119485403137?s=20&t=p6UTItc7Ml9II20Cv-ZylQ The full translation is definitely worth a read, and isn't that long - https://wartranslated.com/igor-girkin-overview-of-the-ukraine-frontlines-as-of-27-june/
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Jun 27, 2022 14:00
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Artillery chat: Dmitri Alperovitch's latest podcast with Michael Kofman and Henry Schlottman goes into a lot of detail, as far as numbers are available. https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/ There are no numbers for Russian or Soviet stockpiles, but in the mid-nineties, the US had about 25 million shells in stockpile. Soviet stockpiles were at least as big, probably bigger, but no one has concrete figures. But a significant amount of that would have ended up in the successor states other than Russia. The shelf-life is 20-30 years. Presumably more, if you don't care about accuracy and safety. and Russia wasn't very big on maintenance, or sustaining stockpiles, in the nineties. Recent reports have been that Russia is firing 50000 - 60000 shells per day, ten times as much as Ukraine. That's assumed to be during the recent fighting in Donbas, not per day since the war started. They did some napkin math on the theoretical strength of Russian units, and came to the numbers of Russia having at least a 3 to 1 advantage in systems fielded compared to Ukraine, and about 3.5 to 1 in shells fired per system. Also noteworthy that the barrel life of tube artillery is about 10000 shells. After that, you need to service or replace the barrel. And for comparison, the Scranton plant in Pennsylvania can produce about 15000 shells per month. So the napkin results are, even with a reported firing rate of 50000 per day, Russia could sustain that for more than a year on presumed stockpiles. But no nation has the production capacity to sustain such expenditure rate indefinitely. The recent ammunition transports from Belarus are more likely about shortages in specific calibers, than an indication of Russia running out in any meaningful way. My best guess is Belarus has some leftover 122mm that Russia wants for its separatist artillery. Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Jun 27, 2022 |
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Jun 27, 2022 14:43
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I looked and there is a railway connection between North Korea and Russia - trading wheat and oil for shells? North Korea would probably enjoy the opportunity to freshen up its stocks by sending the oldest poo poo in exchange for fuel and food.
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Jun 27, 2022 14:49
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Unsurprisingly a lot of economic news today - everything in Russian was translated using the built-in google utility Peskov displeased with the tone of reporting on the default https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1541376750491521025?s=20&t=sH76nEDW6xfyuZjY1Fyjgw quote:Peskov noted that he did not know whether Russia was taking any steps to return the frozen reserves of the Central Bank and whether legal procedures had begun. “Of course, we are analyzing the situation. Our position is well known in terms of reserves. They are blocked illegally. Any attempt to somehow use these reserves will also be illegal and, in fact, will amount to outright theft, ”he said. https://twitter.com/russophiliac/status/1541375335412948995?s=20&t=sH76nEDW6xfyuZjY1Fyjgw https://twitter.com/russophiliac/status/1541376884612939776?s=20&t=sH76nEDW6xfyuZjY1Fyjgw local article on the situation cited later in the above thread: https://www.e1.ru/text/job/2022/06/07/71393393/ quote:Workers at the Ural Compressor Plant in Yekaterinburg went on strike. Employees say they can't get their salaries for months. Now the workers just don't go to the factory. Why does this matter? This thread has a good deep dive on the economic inequality in Russia - the Urals are not rich https://twitter.com/IlyaMatveev_/status/1541384240667009026?s=20&t=sH76nEDW6xfyuZjY1Fyjgw https://twitter.com/IlyaMatveev_/status/1541384267552407554?s=20&t=sH76nEDW6xfyuZjY1Fyjgw https://twitter.com/IlyaMatveev_/status/1541384274041081856?s=20&t=sH76nEDW6xfyuZjY1Fyjgw For the academically-inclided an article from the above thread author on the political consequences of Russian inequality - https://socialistregister.com/index.php/srv/article/view/37659 Oh and there are probably more sanctions coming for Russia https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1541403394149126144?s=20&t=sH76nEDW6xfyuZjY1Fyjgw quote:G7 leaders have vowed to impose new sanctions on Russia’s ability to import technologies for its arms industry as they promised to step up their security commitments to Ukraine. About that stolen grain - some of the Ukrainian grain trucks had GPS trackers on em. The BBC followed the path of the stolen grain - really good article, tons of supporting photographs and well-illustrated maps https://twitter.com/jpaulgoode/status/1541384140142125058?s=20&t=sH76nEDW6xfyuZjY1Fyjgw https://www.bbc.com/news/61790625 quote:"They take grain to the annexed Crimea first, where they transport it to Kerch or Sevastopol [ports], then they load Ukrainian grain on Russian ships and go to the Kerch Strait," says Andrii Klymenko, an expert at the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies in Kyiv, who regularly monitors movements of ships around Crimea.
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Jun 27, 2022 14:51
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Electric Wrigglies posted:I looked and there is a railway connection between North Korea and Russia - trading wheat and oil for shells? North Korea would probably enjoy the opportunity to freshen up its stocks by sending the oldest poo poo in exchange for fuel and food. Yeah, I've kind of wondered if North Korea would end up arbitraging between China and Russia. It could reduce risk for China and be profitable for North Korea. Russia isn't going to run out of hardware anytime soon. One of the biggest risks is that they solve their staffing problems in a way that sends trained soldiers to the front to replace casualties.
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Jun 27, 2022 14:59
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Dwesa posted:Their factories already lack components and they are taking ammunition from Belarus. That doesn't sound like they can produce as much or more than they are currently using. Not at the moment, perhaps, but in a year's time? Why not? Furthermore, in a year's time, will the west still be funneling arms at the present rate to Ukraine?
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Jun 27, 2022 15:13
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Hannibal Rex posted:Artillery chat: If we are generous then that's enough shells to last 18 months at the current expenditure rate. Given the age of those stockpiles i would be wary of firing a lot of it. 
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Jun 27, 2022 15:18
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Jun 27, 2022 15:27
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Dick Ripple posted:The Russians have more than enough industrial capacity to reallocate more factories to shell production. People keep saying this as the Russians break out the stockpiles from the end of the Second World War and the first part of the Cold War. I think people have a profound misunderstanding of what’s involved in the supply chain for explosive shell production, the capability of Russia to procure any military hardware without rampant corruption, and the effect that this default that just happened is going to have on the ability of everyone involved in said supply chain to pay each other. Which, incidentally, completely hammers industrial output. Also, do you really think the Chinese are going to risk sending Russia large amounts of artillery ammunition, when that would trigger American sanctions on Chinese industry and banks?
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Jun 27, 2022 15:37
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The situation people are imagining where Russia keeps up this pace would involve retooling it's entire economy to do nothing but manufacture shells. Which, yes is technically possible and Russia might well do that, but it also completly mortgages the nation's future, eliminates all development, and ultimately leads to Russia falling even further behind the West. Every Ruble spend on shells and shell building is a Ruble not being spent on something useful. They'd be setting themselves up for utter and ruinous failure in a decade or two.
Bug Squash fucked around with this message at 15:47 on Jun 27, 2022 |
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Jun 27, 2022 15:45
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Bug Squash posted:The situation people are imagining where Russia keeps up this pace would involve retooling it's entire economy to do nothing but manufacture shells. Which, yes is technically possible and Russia might well do that, but it also completly mortgages the nation's future, eliminates all development, and ultimately leads to Russia falling even further behind the West. Every Ruble spend on shells and shell building is a Ruble not being spent on something useful. They'd be setting themselves up for utter and ruinous failure in a decade or two. You can go back and say this in the 50s, when the Soviets continued to pump money into the military at ahistorical rates while NATO demobilized.
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Jun 27, 2022 16:01
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Morrow posted:You can go back and say this in the 50s, when the Soviets continued to pump money into the military at ahistorical rates while NATO demobilized. I think they were actually slowing it down a little bit during Khruschev's stay, but then his agricultural policy went rear end up and in comes Brezhnev and he presses the funnel resources to the MIC button so hard it got stuck, while drastically cutting expenses everywhere else that wouldn't be immediately apparent to people (like healthcare).
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Jun 27, 2022 16:04
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Morrow posted:You can go back and say this in the 50s, when the Soviets continued to pump money into the military at ahistorical rates while NATO demobilized. Yes, and they suffered massive economic collapse after falling massively behind NATO. Edit: your probably argeeing with me here, sorry
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Jun 27, 2022 16:15
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/olehbatkovych/status/1541427033397514241?t=IUXWBOzO7tTZzfJUAG4EKg&s=19 This is why I don't buy the idea that while Russia launches cruise missiles at traditional military targets and the residential hits are "off target" or "accidents." Their main military strategy is so interwoven with Putin's own political mania (the genocide of Ukrainians and the erasure of all Ukrainian culture) that it's irrelevant to distinguish the difference. Russian airstrikes and bombing have not been beneficial to their actual military/theater goals in any meaningful way. Of course, Macron will call Putin and say if Moscow just simply targets military installations instead of people then all this will just blow over.
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Jun 27, 2022 16:16
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Bug Squash posted:The situation people are imagining where Russia keeps up this pace would involve retooling it's entire economy to do nothing but manufacture shells. Which, yes is technically possible and Russia might well do that, but it also completly mortgages the nation's future, eliminates all development, and ultimately leads to Russia falling even further behind the West. Every Ruble spend on shells and shell building is a Ruble not being spent on something useful. They'd be setting themselves up for utter and ruinous failure in a decade or two. Russia was producing ~ 120 kt of cars per month in 2021 with ~ 1% of its workforce. 60 k shells of 152 mm is roughly 79 kt a month of shells but of course you need the barrel replacements so a bit more than that. Again, I think people underestimate the capacity of modern industry and the horror of industrial war.
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Jun 27, 2022 16:21
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