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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Uranium Phoenix posted:

I'm going to address the bolded claim, which I think is completely wrong.

Here, we can look to a 2014 Princeton study that looked at what groups have influence on policy:
Testing Theories of American Politics:Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens, 2014 used data to see if average citizens, economic elites, or interest groups tend to get the policies they want by voting. They discovered that average citizens basically only get what they want by chance or when their interests already align with economic elites or certain interest groups:

One might argue that joining an interest-group to lobby and encourage voting along that interest (in this case, climate change) might be particularly helpful, but the authors break apart "interest groups" into mass-based (that's us, the common dross) and business based.

The study, in addition to noting that most policy occurs because business groups or economic elites want it, also notes that it's probably underestimating the influence of the economic elites because they're looking at people in the 90th percentile, since studying the true multi-millionaire and billionaire elites is difficult. They conclude:

Meaningful action is not being done on climate change, in both GOP and Democratic administrations. Perhaps some non-US citizens can chime in and show that it matters for them, but in the US, voting is not meaningfully affecting policy, so in order to be effective, we need to find other ways to influence politics. Building activist groups that can take meaningful action is critical.

I think they were being facetious, OP.

But also I love this study and love your analysis

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Enjoy
Apr 18, 2009
Going vegan is way more effective

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Enjoy posted:

Going vegan is way more effective

Do you have any other cards to play?

Enjoy
Apr 18, 2009

CommieGIR posted:

Do you have any other cards to play?

I don't want to get too far ahead in case I make people feel bad

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy
how do you know someone is vegan?

don't worry, they'll find a way to let you know

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Sir Kodiak posted:

You've presented evidence that voting isn't particularly effective, but I can't seem to find the part of your post where you show that something else is more effective. Wouldn't that be a necessary part of an argument that voting is not the singular most effective thing you can do to fight climate change?

I don't know why I haven't seen it this way before, but it seems that a cursory look at the prior *looks at other screen* All Of History indicates that revolution gets the goods.

Like, it's tautological, but every time we're able to complain "huh that vote didn't work," it's also true that a revolution didn't happen and this goods weren't got.

Enjoy
Apr 18, 2009

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

how do you know someone is vegan?

don't worry, they'll find a way to let you know

https://www.fao.org/publications/card/en/c/CB7033EN/

hooman
Oct 11, 2007

This guy seems legit.
Fun Shoe
The most effective action you can take is [not allowed on this forum].

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

how do you know someone is vegan?

don't worry, they'll find a way to let you know

Thanks for posting, sentient Boomer chain email from 2004

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Probably one of the most effective is mandatory superannuation combined with it being portable like it is in Australia. Voting with your life savings does change behaviors!

I work in private sector and the big super funds absolutely do challenge and validate measures towards climate, people trafficking, etc if they have got money invested in you. As they are also some of the cheapest sources of capital, it means that companies do go along with the compliance costs that come with this. As both the super fund and the business are after outcomes rather than funding a cottage industry, the compliance activities tends to be sufficient rather than needlessly laborious.

Saying that, I take a dim view on anyone that argues against voting. Literally spent more effort than it takes to vote (in a sensible place with straight forward voting like Aus) on arguing against it. And even in Australia you don't have to vote. You are quite legally entitled to show up, get your name marked off the election roll, receive you ballot paper and put it in the box unmarked - job done.

Revolutions don't have predictable results. Libya is enjoying a revolution right now. Having the time of its life now that it finally played the secret card that wins at solving problems.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Electric Wrigglies posted:

Probably one of the most effective is mandatory superannuation combined with it being portable like it is in Australia. Voting with your life savings does change behaviors!

I work in private sector and the big super funds absolutely do challenge and validate measures towards climate, people trafficking, etc if they have got money invested in you. As they are also some of the cheapest sources of capital, it means that companies do go along with the compliance costs that come with this. As both the super fund and the business are after outcomes rather than funding a cottage industry, the compliance activities tends to be sufficient rather than needlessly laborious.

Saying that, I take a dim view on anyone that argues against voting. Literally spent more effort than it takes to vote (in a sensible place with straight forward voting like Aus) on arguing against it. And even in Australia you don't have to vote. You are quite legally entitled to show up, get your name marked off the election roll, receive you ballot paper and put it in the box unmarked - job done.

Revolutions don't have predictable results. Libya is enjoying a revolution right now. Having the time of its life now that it finally played the secret card that wins at solving problems.
I'm not going to say "don't vote," but there is zero chance that the current liberal capitalist system will effectively fight climate change. The scale of changes that need to be done are so enormous that it just about constitutes a revolution in itself - a total change of how we produce, our productive relations, and our lives. The whole "voting" thing isn't going great right now, and it won't improve. Rolling the dice on a revolution is something that makes sense at this point.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

cat botherer posted:

I'm not going to say "don't vote," but there is zero chance that the current liberal capitalist system will effectively fight climate change. The scale of changes that need to be done are so enormous that it just about constitutes a revolution in itself - a total change of how we produce, our productive relations, and our lives. The whole "voting" thing isn't going great right now, and it won't improve. Rolling the dice on a revolution is something that makes sense at this point.

Barring something more major happening, betting on a revolution is as unlikely as capitalism saving us from itself.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

CommieGIR posted:

Barring something more major happening, betting on a revolution is as unlikely as capitalism saving us from itself.
Major things are happening on the political front, but the outcome looks to be more along the lines of fascism. There's good signs of rapidly increasing worker solidarity though. A left revolution is something that would only happen on a longer horizon, probably after things have effectively balkanized. Still, the drop in production from that kind of chaos could be counted as a Pyrrhic victory.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

cat botherer posted:

Major things are happening on the political front, but the outcome looks to be more along the lines of fascism. There's good signs of rapidly increasing worker solidarity though. A left revolution is something that would only happen on a longer horizon, probably after things have effectively balkanized. Still, the drop in production from that kind of chaos could be counted as a Pyrrhic victory.

Worker solidarity, yes, worker revolution, no.

Endjinneer
Aug 17, 2005
Fallen Rib
As relevant now as ever

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Endjinneer posted:

As relevant now as ever


ahh that is why voting is so repressive in the US vs other nations.

Has there been a revolution that turned anything positive other than the French revolution?

jeeves
May 27, 2001

Deranged Psychopathic
Butler Extraordinaire
The French Revolution lead to Napoleon so no.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Electric Wrigglies posted:

ahh that is why voting is so repressive in the US vs other nations.

Has there been a revolution that turned anything positive other than the French revolution?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-54c0IdxZWc

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
Pretty stunning article about the state of severe drought in the southwest

https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-southwest/the-water-wars-come-to-the-suburbs

Paywall but easily bypassed with 12ft.io

Genuinely jokerfied at some of the quotations



And it ends with them assuming the local gov will bail them out


quote:

“We got two great offers in, and neither of them cared about the water situation. They believe that the county is not going to let five hundred homes next to one of the wealthiest cities go without water.”

A big flaming stink fucked around with this message at 03:14 on Jul 8, 2022

Pobrecito
Jun 16, 2020

hasta que la muerte nos separe

Electric Wrigglies posted:

ahh that is why voting is so repressive in the US vs other nations.

Has there been a revolution that turned anything positive other than the French revolution?

The Russian, Chinese (Communist), and Cuban revolutions.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Electric Wrigglies posted:

ahh that is why voting is so repressive in the US vs other nations.

Has there been a revolution that turned anything positive other than the French revolution?

point to a country on a map at random

it didn't always exist

there's quite a few examples of good and bad

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Pobrecito posted:

The Russian, Chinese (Communist), and Cuban revolutions.

The Russian one was good for ethnic Russians and the Chinese one was good for ethnic Han otherwise a bit mixed.

I completely forgot Cuba though so that is on me - if the US was not so ideologically opposed to other influences inside its sphere, it would have jumped the Cuban people much more than it did anyway.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/1545345583262695424

absolute and utter insanity from every possible angle.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

A big flaming stink posted:

https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/1545345583262695424

absolute and utter insanity from every possible angle.

They are bailing out their coal industry and basically giving up on their emissions goals.

Its beyond insane.

https://twitter.com/ToreBear/status/1545067778524291072?s=20&t=daNkHe5RBXnxWTtfDRNGqQ

The Dutch are asking Germany not to close their last nuclear plants during the gas crisis.

CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Jul 8, 2022

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

CommieGIR posted:

They are bailing out their coal industry and basically giving up on their emissions goals.

Its beyond insane.

https://twitter.com/ToreBear/status/1545067778524291072?s=20&t=daNkHe5RBXnxWTtfDRNGqQ

The Dutch are asking Germany not to close their last nuclear plants during the gas crisis.

even from a perspective that doesnt give a poo poo about emissions, decommissioning baseline power generators while they're at risk of political embargo from russia is insane from the basic perspective of not having your citizens freeze to death

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

A big flaming stink posted:

https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/1545345583262695424

absolute and utter insanity from every possible angle.

Lol

Lmao

Wrap up all your moderate predictions, we're going for Flambée Earth

MinutePirateBug
Mar 4, 2013

CommieGIR posted:

Worker solidarity, yes, worker revolution, no.

This is sentiment that has been always expressed by upper-middle class/middle class liberals/moderate socialists and why they have always favored reactionaries. I mean it why you have guys like Toussant Louverture going, hey you guys have to go back into the worst kind of slavery imaginable because it is the only way for Haiti to economically viable or the SPD supporting of the Freikorps blowing away real leftists. Violence is acceptable and as long as it only goes one way and we don't hear about it too much.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

MinutePirateBug posted:

This is sentiment that has been always expressed by upper-middle class/middle class liberals/moderate socialists and why they have always favored reactionaries. I mean it why you have guys like Toussant Louverture going, hey you guys have to go back into the worst kind of slavery imaginable because it is the only way for Haiti to economically viable or the SPD supporting of the Freikorps blowing away real leftists. Violence is acceptable and as long as it only goes one way and we don't hear about it too much.

No I'm saying that a workers led revolution isn't happening. There's a lot of strikes and Union talk, but nothing in the way of revolution.

Maybe hold back on slinging labels around and making assumptions.

MinutePirateBug
Mar 4, 2013

CommieGIR posted:

No I'm saying that a workers led revolution isn't happening. There's a lot of strikes and Union talk, but nothing in the way of revolution.

Maybe hold back on slinging labels around and making assumptions.

I mean I am upper-middle class Liberal, I am just disgusted by myself and my peers.

MinutePirateBug
Mar 4, 2013

Electric Wrigglies posted:

Probably one of the most effective is mandatory superannuation combined with it being portable like it is in Australia. Voting with your life savings does change behaviors!

I work in private sector and the big super funds absolutely do challenge and validate measures towards climate, people trafficking, etc if they have got money invested in you. As they are also some of the cheapest sources of capital, it means that companies do go along with the compliance costs that come with this. As both the super fund and the business are after outcomes rather than funding a cottage industry, the compliance activities tends to be sufficient rather than needlessly laborious.

Saying that, I take a dim view on anyone that argues against voting. Literally spent more effort than it takes to vote (in a sensible place with straight forward voting like Aus) on arguing against it. And even in Australia you don't have to vote. You are quite legally entitled to show up, get your name marked off the election roll, receive you ballot paper and put it in the box unmarked - job done.

Revolutions don't have predictable results. Libya is enjoying a revolution right now. Having the time of its life now that it finally played the secret card that wins at solving problems.

There is also the carnation revolution in Portugal in 1974, illiteracy in Portugal was like ~20% before the revolution and material conditions were some of the worse in Europe, also it was beneficial to the people they colonized. Also the South Korean revolution in 1960 was reasonable. Like a big determining factor of how things go for people in 21st-20th century revolutions is what the West does in terms of interference.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


^ I mean, look at the US SCOTUS and other red-aligned state courts disassembling the principle of democratic elections and tell me with a straight face the by US isn't in a slow burn revolution right now.

MinutePirateBug
Mar 4, 2013
I am not sure what the right word for it is, right-wing revolution? counter-revolution? coup d'etat?

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

MinutePirateBug posted:

I am not sure what the right word for it is, right-wing revolution? counter-revolution? coup d'etat?

Very much the latter-most. This isn't a revolution they're planning, no matter how much they convince themselves it is, it's a deliberate subversion of the rule of law in their ideological favor.

And the opposition is just letting it happen and putting the onus on ~the people~ to ~just vote~.

jeeves
May 27, 2001

Deranged Psychopathic
Butler Extraordinaire
Right-wing revolutions are almost never the will of the majority of the people so yeah it's basically almost always just some form of coup.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

BIG HEADLINE posted:

Very much the latter-most. This isn't a revolution they're planning, no matter how much they convince themselves it is, it's a deliberate subversion of the rule of law in their ideological favor.

And the opposition is just letting it happen and putting the onus on ~the people~ to ~just vote~.

uh, the army is not involved? So it would be closer to a revolution than a coup d'état. It may not be exactly what a lot of people wanted from a revolution but hey, this goes back to my original point that everyone is all for a revolution unless it is them getting put up against the wall to be shot*. Most revolutions don't involve the great majority of people either. I was in Egypt when Mubarak was ousted. Literally watching the smoke rise over Tahir Square from my room on my way to work and could get a coffee from a quiet peaceful street maybe three blocks away and you wouldn't know you were in a country wide revolution (one of my workers got shot dead during it though).

The people's outcome from that revolution was to vote in a very conservative fundamental government that then effectively suffered a coup d'état themselves to put the original people (aside from Mubarak himself) back in charge.

*Bit like how the survivalists' kid themselves that a nuclear war would not see them dead in the first wave or within the first week or two at most.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
Just watched a festival documentary called Atomic Hope, which is about the fringe pro-nuclear environmental movement. I guess maybe they would want you to be hopeful about the nuclear future, but to me it was just extremely blackpilling that our best hope of avoiding annihilation is only being promoted by a tiny group of super-dweebs who are hated by all the other environmentalist groups.

It also ends with some disturbing statistics and a montage of existing nuclear plants being decommissioned and blown up, which yeah left me in the same nihilistic headspace as when I finished The Uninhabitable Earth. Watching this in the same week as the news from Germany has recracked my ping.

Doc is worth a watch if/when it gets a wider release tho.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Electric Wrigglies posted:

uh, the army is not involved? So it would be closer to a revolution than a coup d'état.

Give it time. January 6th failed only because the rear end in a top hat who "does everything on the cheap" figured he didn't have to pay anyone off. He also treated military leadership like dogshit.

Just because it's going slowly and stupidly doesn't mean it's still not a coup.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


cat botherer posted:

I'm not going to say "don't vote," but there is zero chance that the current liberal capitalist system will effectively fight climate change. The scale of changes that need to be done are so enormous that it just about constitutes a revolution in itself - a total change of how we produce, our productive relations, and our lives. The whole "voting" thing isn't going great right now, and it won't improve. Rolling the dice on a revolution is something that makes sense at this point.

:hmmwrong:

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1544253716492177411?s=20&t=38TuBY1gcq3skOFop671gA

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Peak oil may be a ways off, but we do appear to have hit peak fossil financing.

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Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


It does but that's a double edged sword. Poorer countries won't be able for afford energy and it'll make oil and gas executive even more loving rich plus you'll have a bunch of anti-environmentalist politicians elected into office.

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