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Question for thread, How does Russia even plan to hold their current gained territory? From what I gather, they don't have enough troops and thinking long term I don't see how on earth they'd be able to hold everything down unless they're willing to fight an insurgency - one funded my western nations - over decades.
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Jul 12, 2022 21:27
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Question for thread, This one seems fairly telegraphed so far. They are angling to take/hold whatever remaining land they can and quickly hold sham elections 'confirming' those regions inclusions into russia, so that when it comes time for Ukraine to start taking them back they will threaten to nuke Ukraine. Whether they go through with it as the Ukrainian army marches into those regions steamrolling all the way is another question entirely. As for insurgencies, I'd wager their main mechanism to thwart them (and for all intents and purposes is their current modus operandi) is genocide.
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Jul 12, 2022 21:30
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Question for thread, They probably don't plan to use the army for occupation. They have an entire zoo of various security services and police agencies that would take over after a while IIRC they send a truck full of OMON pigs into Kyiv in the early days of the invasion.
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Jul 12, 2022 21:33
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Even when people predicted that Russia would be able to conquer the entire country easily enough, that was a common question. Ukraine is much more populous than 1970s Afghanistan. To be a bit grim: I think the plan was to kill and/or displace a significant portion of the local population and replace with Russian nationals. So, yeah: genocide.
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Jul 12, 2022 21:34
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GABA ghoul posted:They probably don't plan to use the army for occupation. They have an entire zoo of various security services and police agencies that would take over after a while IIRC they send a truck full of OMON pigs into Kyiv in the early days of the invasion. As far as I know, they've had to move their security forces to the front lines to fight and according to western militaries you need some like 4:1 advantage in occupied areas along with controlled borders. They're not even close. Edit - Unless, of course you just genocide all the locals.
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Jul 12, 2022 21:38
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Nitrox posted:Reddit does not let you view anything marked mature content, unless you're using an app. Replace the "www" with "old"
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Jul 12, 2022 21:38
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GABA ghoul posted:They probably don't plan to use the army for occupation. They have an entire zoo of various security services and police agencies that would take over after a while IIRC they send a truck full of OMON pigs into Kyiv in the early days of the invasion. yeah the plan was simply to cleanse the areas. 'cleanse' in the customary way that the russian government and military uses the term to mean removing and/or neutralizing anyone and everyone who opposes them or might possibly oppose them. This means political and civil opposition as well as military opposition. Like that was explicitly their pre-war plan and was why they'd pre-drawn lists of people to remove in each region that they planned to take Crosby B. Alfred posted:As far as I know, they've had to move their security forces to the front lines to fight and according to western militaries you need some like 4:1 advantage in occupied areas along with controlled borders. They're not even close. see above, and see mariupol for an example of what that looks like in practice. Or Bucha, for that matter. It's indistinguishable also from Assad's strategy for dealing with dissenting areas in Syria. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Jul 12, 2022 |
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Jul 12, 2022 21:44
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Going with the Syria approach, I suspect that would work but that is insanely far from Putin's original goals. And increase the likelihood it'll end up like another Chechnya.
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Jul 12, 2022 21:50
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New Coke posted:Even when people predicted that Russia would be able to conquer the entire country easily enough, that was a common question. Ukraine is much more populous than 1970s Afghanistan. Russia's usual operation for this seems to be to get some of the more authoritarian leaning locals to take over the occupation and handle things, (Luhanks, Donetsk, Checnya, etc) thats why I think Kherson is such an interesting issue - they're not following the script, and I think that's frustrating Russia's efforts there immensely.
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Jul 12, 2022 21:52
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Very nice of Ukraine to commemorate 4th of july with impressive fireworks but at some point maybe we should tell them that it isn't a month long thing. Or I guess we could not tell them that. https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1546598454142566402?s=20&t=j4QBcqyNIJsCYuIycpKYBg Crosby B. Alfred posted:Going with the Syria approach, I suspect that would work but that is insanely far from Putin's original goals. And increase the likelihood it'll end up like another Chechnya. ... Have you seen the towns in Ukraine after Russia has finished capturing them? Also the ship has already sailed wrt this ending up as merely a chechnya sized military and political disaster.
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Jul 12, 2022 21:54
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Doccers posted:Russia's usual operation for this seems to be to get some of the more authoritarian leaning locals to take over the occupation and handle things, (Luhanks, Donetsk, Checnya, etc) That ties into their earlier incorrect assumptions. Thinking that Ukraine wants to be liberated, brought back into Russia and resistance would be minimal.
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Jul 12, 2022 21:55
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Chechnya was a military and political defeat for Russia and the deal struck for peace was literally for peace at any cost, which in practical terms meant total sovereignty and untouchability for Kadyrov (so long as he remains personally loyal to putin) as well as massive Russian financial support for Kadyrov's government in Chechnya, which is a fancy way of saying they pay him for peace. Anyways the Russian formal, doctrinal concept of 'cleansing' does not mean extermination or total destruction really: it means the complete removal and/or neutralization of any opposition or challenge to their power. It's interpreted broadly and extends into social and cultural institutions that don't square away with Russian nationalist values (hence all the anti-lgbt stuff, despite no one really expecting a small town's lgbt folks to significantly hinder Russian geopolitical aims). Ideally it's intended to be carried out through state security and paramilitaries and creating enough terror that many people simply flee. While it does not necessarily include extermination or total destruction, that is in no way off the table, either. The absolute key point of cleansing an area is that it stops becoming an administrative/military nightmare that complicates the larger strategic effort. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Jul 12, 2022 |
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Jul 12, 2022 22:06
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DandyLion posted:This one seems fairly telegraphed so far. They are angling to take/hold whatever remaining land they can and quickly hold sham elections 'confirming' those regions inclusions into russia, so that when it comes time for Ukraine to start taking them back they will threaten to nuke Ukraine. Whether they go through with it as the Ukrainian army marches into those regions steamrolling all the way is another question entirely. I doubt this very much. The Russians seem at sea for a plan, because it seems like they still want all of Eastern Ukraine including Kharkiv. My best guess though would be that at some point they will realize they cannot do this, then they will hold their sham elections and declare a unilateral cease fire and demand negotiation, where they hope that the West will be sick of the war and pressure Ukraine into territorial concessions for peace. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 14:09 on Jul 13, 2022 |
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Jul 12, 2022 22:07
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Doccers posted:Re: logistics, Resupply, and HIMARS range - Generally you don't drive the launch vehicle around. I mean you do, to shoot and scoot and rendezvous with your supply trucks, but you don't drive the launcher to the depot. You drive a lighter, dedicated resupply vehicle like the 9T26, a Ural truck that holds 60 rockets, which is more than the capacity of most of the launch systems. Trucks are pretty easy to fix compared to tracked vehicles.
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Jul 12, 2022 22:27
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As for insurgencies, with the slow grind of the war as it is now, how much of the population is left in place on any taken territory? I thought I read a week or two ago that over 80% of the population of some area at the front had evacuated. How much of the pre-2014 population of Crimea is left in Crimea and how many of those were pro-Russian to start with?
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Jul 12, 2022 22:34
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Seems some mutual shelling tonight Luhansk https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1546967637086937088 Bakhmut https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1546969860126785536?cxt=HHwWgIC-8Ye5-PcqAAAA
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Jul 12, 2022 22:35
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Herstory Begins Now posted:It's indistinguishable also from Assad's strategy for dealing with dissenting areas in Syria. I suppose that's why there's still regular cycles of denial for even the clearest pattern of russian genocide, war crimes, terror bombing, etc
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Jul 12, 2022 22:35
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:
I've been reading some pro-Russian gov opinions about the sanctions on Russia, and the idealistic hardliners seem to love them as they view them as cutting down on 'corrupting western influence' and promoting autarky. With that in mind, I don't think that the current Iranian regime gives a rat's shart about the sanctions (though, I know very little about them TBH). They might even like them in some capacity. If I was in the Iranian government's shoes, my line of thinking would be something like "Russia needs drones, I have drones, Russia has cash, I need cash, therefore, I will trade drones for cash, especially if Russia is cutting me a better deal than I could get elsewhere." Where Russia ends up politically after the war, and how my government is perceived by a bunch of governments who despise me anyways would have no effect on my mental calculous of the risk involved.
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Jul 12, 2022 22:39
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d64 posted:As for insurgencies, with the slow grind of the war as it is now, how much of the population is left in place on any taken territory? I thought I read a week or two ago that over 80% of the population of some area at the front had evacuated. How much of the pre-2014 population of Crimea is left in Crimea and how many of those were pro-Russian to start with? Best we can tell, pre-2014 invasion Sevastopol was >50% pro-Russian, and the rest of the peninsula was maybe ~30% pro-Russian. There were some 200-300 thousand people displaced from Crimea before Russia locked it down, and from there your guess is as good as mine on further population movements. Ukrainian sources believe that over 1 million settlers have arrived in Crimea in the recent 8 years. If accurate, with earlier economic movements, internal repressions, and 8 years of living under Russian control, it would suggest that at the moment the absolute majority could be pro-Russian, by design.
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Jul 12, 2022 22:41
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Chechnya was a military and political defeat for Russia and the deal struck for peace was literally for peace at any cost, which in practical terms meant total sovereignty and untouchability for Kadyrov (so long as he remains personally loyal to putin) as well as massive Russian financial support for Kadyrov's government in Chechnya, which is a fancy way of saying they pay him for peace. Even if that scenario does happen... That's so freaking far from Putin's original goal. He enormously hosed up.
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Jul 12, 2022 22:42
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Best we can tell, pre-2014 invasion Sevastopol was >50% pro-Russian, and the rest of the peninsula was maybe ~30% pro-Russian. There were some 200-300 thousand people displaced from Crimea before Russia locked it down, and from there your guess is as good as mine on further population movements. Ukrainian sources believe that over 1 million settlers have arrived in Crimea in the recent 8 years. If accurate, with earlier economic movements, internal repressions, and 8 years of living under Russian control, it would suggest that at the moment the absolute majority could be pro-Russian, by design.
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Jul 12, 2022 22:48
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Even if that scenario does happen... That's so freaking far from Putin's original goal. He enormously hosed up. Such is the esteemed history of the Russian special operation Also there's no Kadyrov in Ukraine for Putin to make a deal with. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Jul 12, 2022 |
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Jul 12, 2022 22:50
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Another day, another dump. My untutored opinion is that these places make a neighborhood unsafe and should be reported to your HOA. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1546971433531854848
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Jul 12, 2022 22:51
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d64 posted:Yea, what I'm after here is that if Russia were to take some area or city, probably many of the inhabitants would have left their homes, and (just speculating) many of those who would stay, or return, would be those who would not mind the occupation as much. An active insurgency would require a population of Ukrainian patriots. Crimea was very difficult to leave, being a peninsula and all, but the takeover act didn’t pose an immediate threat to the health of the civilians. I don’t think these are comparable situations. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 22:55 on Jul 12, 2022 |
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Jul 12, 2022 22:52
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Best we can tell, pre-2014 invasion Sevastopol was >50% pro-Russian, and the rest of the peninsula was maybe ~30% pro-Russian. There were some 200-300 thousand people displaced from Crimea before Russia locked it down, and from there your guess is as good as mine on further population movements. Ukrainian sources believe that over 1 million settlers have arrived in Crimea in the recent 8 years. If accurate, with earlier economic movements, internal repressions, and 8 years of living under Russian control, it would suggest that at the moment the absolute majority could be pro-Russian, by design. a fun side note is that Fred Durst might be one of those Crimean settlers https://www.dw.com/en/limp-bizkit-frontman-fred-durst-banned-from-ukraine/a-18933381
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Jul 12, 2022 22:53
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d64 posted:Yea, what I'm after here is that if Russia were to take some area or city, probably many of the inhabitants would have left their homes, and (just speculating) many of those who would stay, or return, would be those who would not mind the occupation as much. An active insurgency would require a population of Ukrainian patriots. I imagine the situation would depend on the state of the active Ukrainian resistance. If there is still a Ukrainian state to evacuate to and an Ukrainian army that's fighting a conventional war, it's probably a safer bet on that instead of local insurgency efforts. Not saying there aren't insurgents in the occupied areas, but the scale of activities and risk tolerance would naturally shift depending on where the wall is.
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Jul 12, 2022 23:05
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/rgilliescanada/status/1546846411249094656 Agreed. The Trump administration was utter poo poo.
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Jul 13, 2022 01:27
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Chill Monster posted:I've been reading some pro-Russian gov opinions about the sanctions on Russia, and the idealistic hardliners seem to love them as they view them as cutting down on 'corrupting western influence' and promoting autarky. With that in mind, I don't think that the current Iranian regime gives a rat's shart about the sanctions (though, I know very little about them TBH). They might even like them in some capacity. Yeah but this is the same reason Spain didn't join the axis. Even as the war was still going okay if obvious to The outsiders that things were going downhill fast. Like I can understand this thinking if Iran had an existential Invasion threat on the horizon but it doesn't. It's pretty drat stable all things considered. Yeah I know US warhawking etc but that hasn't completely come into fruiting. It's also glaringly obvious that Russia isn't the ally Iran needs to bulwark against the US. You should definitely look into Iran politics surrounding the sanctions a little more as the mainstream Iranians definitely would love to see sanctions gone but the government stays.
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Jul 13, 2022 01:54
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Iran has already spent a ton of time providing every kind of aid imaginable to groups opposing American/American aligned interests. They don't really care about the reaction and arming your enemies enemies, while something that will absolutely get a variety of unfriendly responses (including covert and clandestine responses), is kind of just a part of international politics. Hell, Iran was providing munitions that were being directly used against American forces in Iraq for much of the 2000s and they spent the 2010s in proxy wars with American allies and supported groups. Once ISIS was on the scene the US even started working with some of those same Iranian supported groups. There's something tangibly impersonal about it, like it's just business and politics. Also there is an existential conflict on the horizon for Iran: it's a seemingly inevitable (at least to hear KSA's view of it) showdown with Saudi Arabia, which has been spending germany in the 1930s % of its gdp on its military for most of the last decade while loudly talking about Iran as their regional geopolitical nemesis. If that happens, Iran will need all the friends it can get (which is indeed why Iran has been skilfully cultivating a region spanning network of allied military and paramilitary forces). [sorry for all the middle east posting, just doing it when it comes up because it does factor into this] Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 02:08 on Jul 13, 2022 |
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Jul 13, 2022 02:05
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Chill Monster posted:I've been reading some pro-Russian gov opinions about the sanctions on Russia, and the idealistic hardliners seem to love them as they view them as cutting down on 'corrupting western influence' and promoting autarky. There's also a strong belief that with the sanctions it'll bring a bunch of blue collar jobs back to the Country. Similar to how Trump would bring back manufacturing to the rust belt.
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Jul 13, 2022 02:15
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I'm basically hoping the first ATACMS is used to blow the loving bridge up. -- While I agree wholy that Iran does have the sauds to contend with eventually, making an ally of Russia at this point probably isn't going to benefit them quite as much as it would before you know Russia's pulling t62 out of the loving exporting lot. The other thing is the sods may have all this lovely gear but that doesn't make up for like you said Iran's region wide resistance efforts. I don't want to talk about this anymore and like you said in your post it's a lot of Middle East bullshit that doesn't belong here. But I feel like it would be potentially devastating for Iran to tie the rope with Russia more than it already has. Especially when we're talking about a huge Russian fuckup Having friends doesn't stop your car from crashing if it's already speeding into the divider while blasting you guessed it. Heavy bass. Let's not continue this discussion as it is currently a fairly minor feature and Iranian UAVs aren't going to change the outcome as Iranian UAVs are on par with the Chinese radios Russia is using.
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Jul 13, 2022 02:21
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Iranian UAVs aren't going to change the outcome as Iranian UAVs are on par with the Chinese radios Russia is using. Iran has pretty decent UAVs for what Russia is doing now. Namely: very cost-effective one-way attack and ISR, both of which are easy to use. It might be a sideshow weapon thing in Ukraine, but don’t sleep on the Iranian drone R&D and manufacturing industry. They’re quite good at cost effective UAS; it’s just not much compared to like.. tens of thousands of troops occupying land.
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Jul 13, 2022 02:32
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https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1546907014756024321 Good thread.
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Jul 13, 2022 02:54
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Yeah but this is the same reason Spain didn't join the axis. Even as the war was still going okay if obvious to The outsiders that things were going downhill fast. It was a bit more complicated than that. There were negotiations in 1940, Franco wanted food, military supplies and some of the French colonies in North Africa, in exchange for joining the war and helping the Germans take Gibraltar. That went nowhere fairly quickly, when it became clear Hitler had to ameliorate Vichy France in order to keep the colonies from switching sides to de Gaule. But this is really not the thread for that.
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Jul 13, 2022 02:58
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Jul 13, 2022 03:00
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Hannibal Rex posted:It was a bit more complicated than that. There were negotiations in 1940, Franco wanted food, military supplies and some of the French colonies in North Africa, in exchange for joining the war and helping the Germans take Gibraltar. That went nowhere fairly quickly, when it became clear Hitler had to ameliorate Vichy France in order to keep the colonies from switching sides to de Gaule. But this is really not the thread for that. Also the unquantifiable intervention of Canaris
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Jul 13, 2022 04:21
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Question for thread, They'll probably put Amani or Victor in the captured city and chop out a quick monument.
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Jul 13, 2022 04:53
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Question for thread, Bring in Russian TV. Not a joke. https://www.newsweek.com/new-mayor-occupied-ukraine-city-demands-russia-tv-true-information-1687578
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Jul 13, 2022 04:58
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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1546605456889679884 https://twitter.com/IntelArrow/status/1546882181053693954 Uragan and Grad rockets are now decoy rounds too.
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Jul 13, 2022 05:35
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Tank logistics chat: there are rumors in Polish military channels that Poland will supply Ukraine with all the remaining T-72 based tanks still in inventory, which should be 230 PT-91 (T-72 upgraded or build new in 1990', some got later upgrades). In exchange Poland will get 300 Abrams, probably reserve stock. Which in turn might turn Poland to the third largest user in Abrams tanks in a couple of years, once the recently ordered new ones arrive.
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