|
FishBulbia posted:I'm sorry, but weren't you basically implying that there has been a decrease in the intensity of the conflict? That grad barrage is the heaviest of the war I've seen. I mean it sucks, because that's what Grads do (each has 40 tubes). Given the benefit of the doubt, surely you understand that's one target on one front, and surely you are not faux-naïf projecting?
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 21:49
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 00:54 |
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:firms is not strictly speaking neutral nor an unmediated data stream fyi ...I'm not sure what you mean. It's a straight satellite feed of fire detection data from satellites run by NASA and NOAA. How is it being mediated? For people's reference RE: fire detection, from the FIRMS FAQ quote:Why was a particular fire not detected?
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 21:50
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Fyi, there are strong indications that Russia attempted to "trade" Venezuela to the Americans for Ukraine, if you want to understand how they see global politics. That smells very strongly of bullshit. Venezuela and Ukraine both have agency, and the governments of both deeply hate the other major power.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 21:51
|
|
|
Reportedly another ammo depot got hit in new Kahovka near Kherson (video inside) https://theins.ru/news/253139
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:02
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:firms is not strictly speaking neutral nor an unmediated data stream fyi That second video Illia posted? It's a free website though, you should go check what that operational pause looks like
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:02
|
|
|
Saladman posted:That smells very strongly of bullshit. Venezuela and Ukraine both have agency, and the governments of both deeply hate the other major power. "The Russians [...] were signaling very strongly that they wanted to somehow make some very strange swap arrangement between Venezuela and Ukraine: [...] You want us out of your backyard [...]We have our own version of this. You're in our backyard in Ukraine. And we were getting that sent to us, kind of informally through channels. It was in the Russian press, various commentators,” says Fiona Hill at the U.S. Congress. https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/russians-wanted-ukraine-in-exchange-for-venezuela-diplomat-fiona-hill-in-congress
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:06
|
|
|
Hitler would never just invade Poland, doesn't he realize Poland has agency?
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:07
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:That second video Illia posted? https://v.redd.it/5h3qqwx95db91/DASH_240.mp4?source=fallback.gif It's a free website though, you should go check what that operational pause looks like
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:18
|
|
|
With Snake Island retaken, why can't Ukraine ship via Romanian and Bulgarian waters? I'm apparently missing something. What I've read sounds like Ukrainian shipments would be attacked by Russian warships even if they were IN Romanian, Bulgarian or Turkish black sea waters. Otherwise, wouldn't it be viable to ship from Odesa, have the ships hug Ukraine's black sea coast and stay under the umbrella of Ukraine's anti-ship defenses until they reach the safety of Romanian territorial waters, after which they'd cross into Bulgarian and Turkish waters through the Bosporus? Is there a reason Romania and Bulgaria wouldn't want Ukrainian ships in their waters? If the Russians really will attack ships in other waters that would be a major escalation by them that I haven't discussion of yet.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:21
|
|
|
Eregos posted:With Snake Island retaken, why can't Ukraine ship via Romanian and Bulgarian waters? Ukraine is already blockaded, but in 2022 you can't declare war or blockades because  It is a 'maritime policing action' or whatever
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:23
|
|
|
Eregos posted:With Snake Island retaken, why can't Ukraine ship via Romanian and Bulgarian waters? https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-middle-east-global-trade-united-nations-6edbc1c4a8ccb9757a6068c1b215946b On that note, there’s a swarm of ships in Romanian territorial waters at the moment, apparently. https://twitter.com/dimitarbechev/status/1546911854869495810
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:25
|
|
|
Eregos posted:With Snake Island retaken, why can't Ukraine ship via Romanian and Bulgarian waters? Russia dumped a bunch of mines, so insurance companies are loath to have their cargo ships blow up. There are some shipments going regardless. Ukraine, Turkey, Russia and the UN had a session today to work out safe passage for more.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:28
|
|
|
Victis posted:https://v.redd.it/5h3qqwx95db91/DASH_240.mp4?source=fallback.gif If you look there has actually been minimal fighting since mid june june 15  july 12 
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:28
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:That second video Illia posted? that's cluster submunitions Russia's been using them literally every single week of this war
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:30
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:If you look there has actually been minimal fighting since mid june What is the point you’re trying to make with those 2 images?
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:32
|
|
|
Victis posted:I mean it sucks, because that's what Grads do (each has 40 tubes). Given the benefit of the doubt, surely you understand that's one target on one front, and surely you are not faux-naïf projecting? The 40 tubes thing is a big point to remember. That was prob like one battery of grads dumping out a full load. Thats very much what they do, and as you implied, not indicative of particularly heavy shelling rather than a probable Grad battery doing a full barrage.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:32
|
|
|
Dandywalken posted:The 40 tubes thing is a big point to remember. That was prob like one battery of grads dumping out a full load. Thats very much what they do, and as you implied, not indicative of particularly heavy shelling rather than a probable Grad battery doing a full barrage. strictly speaking it's likely several types of mlrs systems hitting a single target using a variety of munitions. other videos from the same area show them using much bigger mlrs systems than grads, too
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:38
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:What is the point you’re trying to make with those 2 images? That you can make any argument you want by changing the window of analysis
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:38
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:That you can make any argument you want by changing the window of analysis I’m excited for your spirit to shitpost, but let’s not. You’ve seen the chronological footage, you’ve seen Russians stating that they’re on a break, you’ve failed to articulate how local intensity in a single area determines the overall conflict intensity - if you want to continue this conversation, seeing your mood, I’ll insist that you address acknowledge and address rebuttals seriously.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:42
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:That you can make any argument you want by changing the window of analysis No you're right, I was misleading by presenting the entire front over the specific timeframe we were discussing
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:42
|
|
|
Victis posted:No you're right, I was misleading by presenting the entire front over the specific timeframe we were discussing No, but, you see, he has a tweet showing that a barrage happened once therefore NASA satellite info is falsified because of reasons.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:45
|
|
|
Victis posted:No you're right, I was misleading by presenting the entire front over the specific timeframe we were discussing A seven day window is not a frame for judging a half year long conflict. Cities are still being shelled, and indiscriminate bombings are still being carried out, regardless of what the rashists say (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:47
|
|
|
mutata posted:No, but, you see, he has a tweet showing that a barrage happened once therefore NASA satellite info is falsified because of reasons. Feel free to explain that to the lady in that video
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:47
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Feel free to explain that to the lady in that video Feel free to extrapolate general conclusions based on a single point of data while simultaneously misrepresenting the conclusion you're needlessly arguing against and dodging direct evidence to the contrary.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:49
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Feel free to explain that to the lady in that video I missed where the thread was patting itself on the back about how destroying ammo dumps has now rendered Ukraine safe
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:51
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Feel free to explain that to the lady in that video Feel free to post less. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:52
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1547332702709456905 So they've still at least locally got enough shells to carpet an area, but I'll take the claim they wiped out a UKR counter attack with a large pinch of salt.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:57
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:A seven day window is not a frame for judging a half year long conflict. I think it is more about the average amount of shelling than shelling period. All of the sources we have are indicating that as a whole, the Russian army is shelling considerably less than it was like two weeks ago. They are still shelling heavily in certain spots, no doubt, but definitely not at the same rate they were before when the whole region is considered. Whether that’s due to their ammo dumps being bombed, the Russian command deciding to take a break, some other factor, or all of the above, is still up in the air.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 22:57
|
|
|
What FIRMS picks up is mostly brush fires. Some of those fires are caused by shelling, but certainly not all. Whether a fire breaks out and is able to grow large enough to be detected depends on factors such as dryness and prevailing winds. And a lot of it is just chance, there are fields that are dotted with hundreds of visible craters but never caught on fire while others burned after a few hits. Shelling in cities often appears invisible with FIRMS unless something very flammable like an oil/ammo depot is hit. So while there certainly is a correlation between (intensity of) shelling and detected fires, I think one has to be careful in drawing too strong conclusions from day to day variation.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 23:14
|
|
|
neamp posted:What FIRMS picks up is mostly brush fires. Some of those fires are caused by shelling, but certainly not all. Whether a fire breaks out and is able to grow large enough to be detected depends on factors such as dryness and prevailing winds. And a lot of it is just chance, there are fields that are dotted with hundreds of visible craters but never caught on fire while others burned after a few hits. Shelling in cities often appears invisible with FIRMS unless something very flammable like an oil/ammo depot is hit. For sure - it also has a measurable lag to it.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 23:23
|
|
|
neamp posted:What FIRMS picks up is mostly brush fires. Some of those fires are caused by shelling, but certainly not all. Whether a fire breaks out and is able to grow large enough to be detected depends on factors such as dryness and prevailing winds. And a lot of it is just chance, there are fields that are dotted with hundreds of visible craters but never caught on fire while others burned after a few hits. Shelling in cities often appears invisible with FIRMS unless something very flammable like an oil/ammo depot is hit. You're right in that FIRMS wasn't designed for this. OSINT (in theory) is combining and corroborating available intel, which FIRMS has been a great tool for and afaik it's proven to be a very reliable source to cross-reference It also provides a handy high-level visual reference for those that need a hammer instead of an explanation
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 23:25
|
|
|
Pablo Bluth posted:https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1547332702709456905 Those look more like smoke rounds to cover an advance, given placements and the smoke itself If those are hits and not smoke rounds then that's literally hundreds of vehicles destroyed all at once
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 23:56
|
|
|
Sometimes when a thing hits the ground really hard, dirt puffs up
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2022 23:57
|
|
|
Looks like a big MRLS strike. You can see some warheads landing around the 8-10 s mark
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2022 00:09
|
|
|
Something interesting - Everyone was so worried about the Ukrainians letting arms get trafficked to the Middle East that no one was able to stop the reverse! https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1547332202161119233?s=20&t=IqZEdao6Lj3tkrZPFS79LQ https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1547332211653095424?s=20&t=IqZEdao6Lj3tkrZPFS79LQ
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2022 00:52
|
|
|
Pablo Bluth posted:https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1547332702709456905 Shouldn't we see wall to wall bragging about the massive amount of carnage inflicted from this if they actually eliminated a whole column of Ukrainians?
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2022 01:41
|
|
|
Bashez posted:Shouldn't we see wall to wall bragging about the massive amount of carnage inflicted from this if they actually eliminated a whole column of Ukrainians? I find this claim highly dubious. This is just one of the many reasons why.
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2022 01:44
|
|
|
https://mobile.twitter.com/J_Bloodworth/status/1547285564327694342/photo/1 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2022 01:48
|
|
|
Seeing as the ukrainians basically have map hacks I doubt they'd lose a column like this. It's possibly but I don't see a huge amount of vehicles. And why not use the Himars to provide counter battery fire if they were infact assaulting Kherson. Earlier I argued that using HIMARs to assault arty pieces was stupid. It still is. However localized counter offensives are a different story than front wide "neutralize the arty". Using a few HIMARS to drop 6-72 (depends on the amount of HIMARs usee) artillery pieces could be very beneficial. The other thing to realize about this artillery, is I surmise that Russia's artillery troops are not all well trained. Maybe one in three has more than just this war worth of combat experience. The reason I bring this up is that essentially you could teach somebody how to fire an artillery piece while the 30 to 40 year old artillery veterans zero targets in and do the real work. But you could have a single crew fire a few to make the first barrage huge and destructive and the concurrent ones less vigorous. Not sure that they are doing this and I'd have to research a bit to verify barrage sizes over the course of a single engagement.
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2022 01:50
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 00:54 |
|
|
 lol, Russian poster re: Finns and Swedes
|
|
#
?
Jul 14, 2022 01:51
|
|