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golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

cinci edit :nws: cameraman's car gets window blown out by shrapnel
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/w0hq9m/ua_soldiers_riding_through_and_narrowly_being/

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Somebody fucked around with this message at 13:00 on Jul 17, 2022

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Xarn
Jun 26, 2015

Rinkles posted:

I remember there was a WHOLE lot of cynicism in this thread about what the sanctions would look like. Everyone was surprised.

I was one of the sceptics, now I am pretty happy that I was wrong. Still waiting for winter tho.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Crosby B. Alfred posted:

It's also used in a number industrial process as well which is incredibly dependent on cheap natural gas, oil and number of derivatives you get from oil. Germany's industry is going to likely come to a near screeching halt. I don't remember the specifics offhand but the manufacturing of things like aluminum, steel, cement, milling metal for whatever gadget, etc. is going to be severely impacted. Technically, alternatives do exist that don't emit carbon due to net zero goals or other harmful chemicals but these however are incredibly expensive and largely prototypes not ready for mainstream production.
From this site:

quote:

In 2021, buildings (residential, services, and agriculture) accounted for 44% of the gas consumption; this is trailed by the industrial (30%) and power sectors (21%).
According to this source, 55% of gas in the industrial sector is used for process heat, 11% as a „material,“ and 2% for mechanical energy the rest is electricity generation, room heating and warm water. So some of that gas usage is more easily replaced than others.
There was a huge fight between various people, groups, etc. at the beginning of this war about the effects of an immediate and total gas embargo. The estimates were somewhere between 0.5% and 8% drop in GDP, with most of them being between 2% and 5% or so. I don’t know if there are updated estimates reflecting developments and measures taken since then.
The goal for now is to reduce gas usage - after all, while Russia is too large of a gas source, it still isn’t the only source.

Flavahbeast posted:

Weird, why is AfD so low? Isn't that the far right party in Germany
Why would you expect the far right party to be high? The far right has always been a fringe movement in Germany. The AFD is an aberration, and has been constantly preoccupied with infighting as to how much and obviously they want to be a far right party. Along with „The Left“ they are the ones calling for an immediate abandonment and surrender of Ukraine. In that area, horseshoe theory is real.

Son of Rodney posted:

On my personal feeling of how Germans are seeing this crisis and Ukraine: there really is an unfortunate number of people who are starting the "but what's in it for us" questions regarding German support as the price increases bite, and a non neglectable number of people are wringing their hands about heavy weapons which is a remnant of pacifism that got beaten into us after WW2, but in general people seem to be very supportive. There is a stark divide in this support between former DDR and west Germany tho, and the "left" is spouting a lot of the same "Nato bad, america bad, Russia has a point" you hear around. A cousin is a local politician for the left party here and we had an argument about Nato and Russia last time we met, she's 22 so it's obviously part of their normal Diskurs.
I personally haven’t seen this sentiment growing at all in my social surroundings. This despite the gas expenses for my parents having already tripled (from 100€ per month to 300€).

quote:

Ultimately due to poor political planning the gas problem has very real and potentially long last impacts on us, including the very real possibility of not being able to afford heating for our housing in the winter, so I understand the government wanting to get as much gas as possible, even from Russia, even if I'd personally be willing to sacrifice more to stop it. The sentiment seems to be that we can't help in the future if we're too embroiled in our own crises. This would also erode support for the future and might sweep the government back into power that caused this mess. There's not good way out.
There is a reason that the most popular politician is the green minister for economy and climate protection that just passed a law turning coal plants back on, expediting the construction of new LNG terminals, telling people to maybe take shorter showers and be prepared to heat their home less in the winter, and also maybe removing the current priority of industry being the first to be cut off if there isn’t enough gas.
So far, the CDU does not seem to be profiting off of the current situation.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Flavahbeast posted:

Weird, why is AfD so low? Isn't that the far right party in Germany

Because Russia is the country in the world with the biggest neo-Nazi problem, and also the only one that openly caters to them and even sponsors them abroad while positioning Russia as a model for the new Reich. Which makes all the denazification propaganda all the more grotesque and those who repeat it all the more despicable.

Bug Squash
Mar 18, 2009

Servetus posted:

International Far Right groups are heavily sponsored by Russia. Putin has been cultivating his image as the white Christian ruler fighting Muslims and gays for years, and Fash worldwide eat that up.

Also worth bearing in mind that AfD strongholds are heavily in the former GDR, so you have a substantial chunk of elderly voters and their children who grew up on a diet of 100% Russian propoganda. These same strongholds are also generally areas of massive deprivation, leading to the familiar cycle of dispair and extremism.

Victis
Mar 26, 2008

Ukraine posted a list of disinformation peddlers, any thread favorites?

https://cpd.gov.ua/reports/%d1%81%d...6-%d1%80%d0%be/

edit: lmao Tulsi Gabbard and Rand Paul

edit2: haha there's some good ones in there

Victis fucked around with this message at 08:53 on Jul 17, 2022

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Servetus posted:

International Far Right groups are heavily sponsored by Russia. Putin has been cultivating his image as the white Christian ruler fighting Muslims and gays for years, and Fash worldwide eat that up.

Not only that, Putin's Russia has been courting and funding all sorts of opposition candidates through the years. The far right is the most fertile soil for this but they're open to anyone really.

This infamous photo is from 2015 at RT's 10th anniversary dinner, Stein was candidate in 2016 and Flynn served as Trump's national security adviser for a month before FBI got onto him. Wimmer was already retired then but he's a notorious right-wing populist and Russia appeaser who was banned from entering Ukraine in 2017 after he visited the separatist regions in some sort of publicity stint. I'm not sure what brought Svoboda in but he too retired already in 2010. Kusturica is a Serbian nationalist and best buddy of Putin's regime. The occupation of Crimea, the war in Donbas or the shooting down of MH 17 certainly didn't bother any of them.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
Didn't know Robert Fico (former Slovakian PM, posted on suspicion of being involved in the murder of a journalist) was carrying water for the Russians these days, but I'm not surprised either.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Victis posted:

Ukraine posted a list of disinformation peddlers, any thread favorites?

Prof. John Mearsheimer, I am absolutely not surprised.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Victis posted:

Ukraine posted a list of disinformation peddlers, any thread favorites?

https://cpd.gov.ua/reports/%d1%81%d...6-%d1%80%d0%be/

edit: lmao Tulsi Gabbard and Rand Paul

edit2: haha there's some good ones in there

Clare Daly (no flag shown) is an Irish MEP, pro russian/Chinese is her spin.

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

Victis posted:

Ukraine posted a list of disinformation peddlers, any thread favorites?

https://cpd.gov.ua/reports/%d1%81%d...6-%d1%80%d0%be/

edit: lmao Tulsi Gabbard and Rand Paul

edit2: haha there's some good ones in there
Glenn Greenwald has officially jumped the horseshoe.

I didn't think Caleb Maupin had a big enough audience to be worth listing but maybe the sheer absurdity of his attempt at starting a nazbol political party in the US outweighed his lack of a larger platform.

and lmao at Lyndon LaRouche's widow who is apparently still involved in politics? But has distanced herself from the current LaRouch PAC who have gone fully mainstream Republican. Weird drama going on there.

Youth Decay fucked around with this message at 09:52 on Jul 17, 2022

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Sodomy Hussein posted:

The capitalists thought they could moderate Russian politics with western money.

all things considered, they succeeded beyond their wildest dreams, much like the graphite moderators in the chernobyl 4 reactor did

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Sodomy Hussein posted:

The capitalists thought they could moderate Russian politics with western money.

They did and thats how you got Putin, Russia's first Deng Xiaoping!

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

The goal in the 2000s was a "Pinochet style regime"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/mar/31/russia.iantraynor

Well I have some good news!

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Sodomy Hussein posted:

The capitalists thought they could moderate Russian politics with western money.

Europe probably got overconfident after Spain/Portugal/Greece transitioned to pluralism/democracy so successfully. The former Warsaw pact countries were just a much harder nut to crack.

Germany can't even manage to integrate the former GDR. After 30 years of transferring obscene amounts of wealth and funding development in the region it is still a hotbed for neo-nazis and fascist authoritarianism. A fascist party even holds a plurality or almost plurality in some of the former GDR states. If they were independent states, they would probably be full on right-wing dictatorships by now. Soviet occupation just really hosed people up. Especially the indifference towards Nazism in civil society, after the initial post-war denazification was done. The official party line was that Nazism did no longer hold any sway in east German society so no need to talk or do anything about it.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

FishBulbia posted:

The goal in the 2000s was a "Pinochet style regime"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/mar/31/russia.iantraynor

Well I have some good news!

Well the goal of the Russian banker and politician the article is about.

Chill Monster
Apr 23, 2014

Victis posted:

Ukraine posted a list of disinformation peddlers, any thread favorites?

https://cpd.gov.ua/reports/%d1%81%d...6-%d1%80%d0%be/

edit: lmao Tulsi Gabbard and Rand Paul

edit2: haha there's some good ones in there

oh no not my boy Lula da Silva T_T

can we get translations of what our favorites said?

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Owling Howl posted:

Well the goal of the Russian banker and politician the article is about.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oaOqC_OPxqY

In '93, Putin reportedly openly admitted that he supports a Pinochet style dictatorship for Russia. He has always been an authoritarian just biting his time to dismantle democratic structures. There was never any outcome with him in power that wouldn't have resulted in a dictatorship. The only hope was to slow him down and get him out of office while it was still possible.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Owling Howl posted:

Well the goal of the Russian banker and politician the article is about.

Global capital was all to happy to support that path, Friedman called for Americans to "Keep Rootin' for Putin"

Victis
Mar 26, 2008

Chill Monster posted:

oh no not my boy Lula da Silva T_T

can we get translations of what our favorites said?

https://time.com/6173232/lula-da-silva-transcript/

He's got a lot of opinions on Ukraine

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Chill Monster posted:

can we get translations of what our favorites said?

The quickest way to translate text in images is to use Google Lens, it will recognize text and translate it automagically.

quote:

Lula da Silva (Lula da Silva)
Pro-Russian narratives:
"Russia must LEAD the NEW world order"
• Zelenskyi is to blame for the war just like Putin"
Position:
Ex-president of Brazil

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1548612336486842368

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Victis posted:

Ukraine posted a list of disinformation peddlers, any thread favorites?

https://cpd.gov.ua/reports/%d1%81%d...6-%d1%80%d0%be/

edit: lmao Tulsi Gabbard and Rand Paul

edit2: haha there's some good ones in there

Martin van Creveld?! What the hell happened to that dude, he used to be a respectable military historian.

EDIT: Ah, Syria and feminism melted his brain completely.

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 12:03 on Jul 17, 2022

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Martin van Creveld?! What the hell happened to that dude, he used to be a respectable military historian.

EDIT: Ah, Syria and feminism melted his brain completely.

The example brought on the page is him describing 2014 events as “state rebellion”.

Victis
Mar 26, 2008

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Martin van Creveld?! What the hell happened to that dude, he used to be a respectable military historian.

EDIT: Ah, Syria and feminism melted his brain completely.

https://www.martin-van-creveld.com/tag/ukraine/

Yeah idk man seems kind of a dick - literally wrote a book called I, Stalin so westerners (ugh) would have a way to grasp his intricate Soviet nuance and otherwise seems super Pro-Russia Imperialist? Given the most extreme benefit of the doubt he's just very dismissive of Ukraine and can't seem to help treating the West/NATO as sinister compared to Russia (who actually has a real history tyvm, unlike the West)

Victis fucked around with this message at 12:35 on Jul 17, 2022

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

GABA ghoul posted:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oaOqC_OPxqY

In '93, Putin reportedly openly admitted that he supports a Pinochet style dictatorship for Russia. He has always been an authoritarian just biting his time to dismantle democratic structures. There was never any outcome with him in power that wouldn't have resulted in a dictatorship. The only hope was to slow him down and get him out of office while it was still possible.

extremely weird behavior of getting him out by backing his boss yeltsin in couping the russian government, plus causing incalculable misery and immiseration to russia's people through shock therapy

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

GABA ghoul posted:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oaOqC_OPxqY

In '93, Putin reportedly openly admitted that he supports a Pinochet style dictatorship for Russia. He has always been an authoritarian just biting his time to dismantle democratic structures. There was never any outcome with him in power that wouldn't have resulted in a dictatorship. The only hope was to slow him down and get him out of office while it was still possible.

A Russian admitting to supporting a dictatorship, now I’ve seen everything. Really weird that nobody singled him out.

I’m sure Russia would be a model democracy now if only somebody would have made him disappear.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

A Russian admitting to supporting a dictatorship, now I’ve seen everything. Really weird that nobody singled him out.

I’m sure Russia would be a model democracy now if only somebody would have made him disappear.

Ukraine is the best example for why the whole Russian Sonderweg idea is stupid. Ukraine started in pretty much the same situation as Russia, but managed to hold on to democratic institutions like free press, elections or freedom of assembly/protest all the way up until the war. Russia is not ~inherently incompatible~ with democracy. If Putin's dismantling of institutions had been opposed either electorally (although the window for that was very narrow) or through protest it might not have ended up in this situation.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


Van Crefeld was huge in right wing circles something like maybe ten years ago at this point bc of his opinions about women in the military.

Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

Maybe I'll go where I can see stars

steinrokkan posted:

Didn't know Robert Fico (former Slovakian PM, posted on suspicion of being involved in the murder of a journalist) was carrying water for the Russians these days, but I'm not surprised either.
He is parroting typical paranoid hateful far-right and pro-Kremlin talking points last few years. But even before that, he was pushing foreign policy that was superficially pro-EU/West, but also pro-Russian (and pro pretty much every other authoritarian regime).

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

GABA ghoul posted:

Europe probably got overconfident after Spain/Portugal/Greece transitioned to pluralism/democracy so successfully. The former Warsaw pact countries were just a much harder nut to crack.

Germany can't even manage to integrate the former GDR. After 30 years of transferring obscene amounts of wealth and funding development in the region it is still a hotbed for neo-nazis and fascist authoritarianism. A fascist party even holds a plurality or almost plurality in some of the former GDR states. If they were independent states, they would probably be full on right-wing dictatorships by now. Soviet occupation just really hosed people up. Especially the indifference towards Nazism in civil society, after the initial post-war denazification was done. The official party line was that Nazism did no longer hold any sway in east German society so no need to talk or do anything about it.

I disagree with this analysis completely. What hosed people up in the former GDR was moving from a full employment, comfortable ‘second world’ society to a fully western capitalist society that just didn’t give a gently caress.

When you move from what is essentially a lower middle-class life for the entire population, to massive unemployment and poverty for decades, people look for solutions…

And since the west was so successful at discrediting ‘Marxism’ as an alternative to capitalistic exploitation, people feel they have to turn to other solutions to their very real problems…

Whether that is radical Islam in the Muslim world, or right wing fascists in former communist European countries.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

GABA ghoul posted:

Ukraine is the best example for why the whole Russian Sonderweg idea is stupid. Ukraine started in pretty much the same situation as Russia, but managed to hold on to democratic institutions like free press, elections or freedom of assembly/protest all the way up until the war. Russia is not ~inherently incompatible~ with democracy. If Putin's dismantling of institutions had been opposed either electorally (although the window for that was very narrow) or through protest it might not have ended up in this situation.

Blank country is a non democracy because it has a culture of non democracy, my proof that it has said culture is that it is currently a non democracy

my favorite moronic tautology that gets passed around

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

FishBulbia posted:

Blank country is a non democracy because it has a culture of non democracy, my proof that it has said culture is that it is currently a non democracy

my favorite moronic tautology that gets passed around

More like "Russia is still not a democracy after going through a chain of several different forms of dictatorships over centuries". One could maybe make a slight exception for the 1990s, but Yeltsin brilliantly chose Putin as his successor.


GABA ghoul posted:

Ukraine is the best example for why the whole Russian Sonderweg idea is stupid. Ukraine started in pretty much the same situation as Russia, but managed to hold on to democratic institutions like free press, elections or freedom of assembly/protest all the way up until the war. Russia is not ~inherently incompatible~ with democracy. If Putin's dismantling of institutions had been opposed either electorally (although the window for that was very narrow) or through protest it might not have ended up in this situation.

No country is inherently incompatible with democracy, I was just expressing that Putin isn't exactly an outlier in his country's history. At the time of his 1993 interview, there would probably have been a lot more people in positions like his with similar opinions.



ZombieLenin posted:

I disagree with this analysis completely. What hosed people up in the former GDR was moving from a full employment, comfortable ‘second world’ society to a fully western capitalist society that just didn’t give a gently caress.

When you move from what is essentially a lower middle-class life for the entire population, to massive unemployment and poverty for decades, people look for solutions…

You're picking and choosing only positive aspects of East Germany and only negative ones of West Germany to fit your narrative.

The cozy old East Germany had a fantastic environmental record that stank to high heavens, for some reasons the evil West Germany gives a gently caress about that.

Additionally, West Germany (now all of Germany) has a pretty tight social safety net, so even if someone is unemployed, they're not living like poor people in the18th century.

You're conveniently omitting what kind of wonderful dictatorship East Germany was. They surely called themselves socialist, marxist and whatnot, but only used that terminology to sanctify a military dictatorship. Of course something like that discredits a word. Just use a different word for the concept and move on.

I would compare East Germany a little bit to the American South. In both cases, they're economically weak places with a bitter old-people-loser-type ideology that should have been eradicated, but gets imprinted on subsequent generations because nobody wants to take on the task.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Victis posted:

https://www.martin-van-creveld.com/tag/ukraine/

Yeah idk man seems kind of a dick - literally wrote a book called I, Stalin so westerners (ugh) would have a way to grasp his intricate Soviet nuance and otherwise seems super Pro-Russia Imperialist? Given the most extreme benefit of the doubt he's just very dismissive of Ukraine and can't seem to help treating the West/NATO as sinister compared to Russia (who actually has a real history tyvm, unlike the West)

Like I said, I remember his name from stuff I read twenty years ago and it was, uh, I guess "interesting" is kind of the word, to see what he's been up to since then.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

A 1hr vid on Belarus by Perun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFmugMGl4Uo

Which is interesting if like me you know absolutely nothing about the country and it's history. :kiddo:

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

ZombieLenin posted:

I disagree with this analysis completely. What hosed people up in the former GDR was moving from a full employment, comfortable ‘second world’ society to a fully western capitalist society that just didn’t give a gently caress.

When you move from what is essentially a lower middle-class life for the entire population, to massive unemployment and poverty for decades, people look for solutions…

And since the west was so successful at discrediting ‘Marxism’ as an alternative to capitalistic exploitation, people feel they have to turn to other solutions to their very real problems…

Whether that is radical Islam in the Muslim world, or right wing fascists in former communist European countries.

Timewise, economic malaise kinda works as an explanation for Russia, but not Germany. The AfD's rise to dominance wasn't during high unemployment in the '90s and early '00. It was in 2016, as a direct reaction to the Syrian refugee crisis, when unemployment numbers had already more or less converged with the rest of Germany and on a very low level. The overwhelming reasons for voting for them were "Uncontrolled immigration" and "Überfremdung/too many foreigners". It also shows in the demographics of their voters. Well off bougie middle class people are overrepresented, economically marginalized people underrepresented (they tend to vote left/Linke more).

And yeah, the Soviet system didn't really need any discrediting from the west. The GDR regime was almost universally despised by the population and seen as illegitimate. Not everything is the west's fault. The GDR was a monumentally dysfunctional clusterfuck only kept alive by Soviet(and to some degree even Western) financial and economic, and military support.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Nenonen posted:

Flynn served as Trump's national security adviser for a month before FBI got onto him.

Flynn met with Trump after the 2020 election and told him the military should seize all the ballots and re-run the election and then when asked under oath if he believed in the peaceful transition of power had to invoke his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination so he's for sure a straight-up fascist.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

A big flaming stink posted:

extremely weird behavior of getting him out by backing his boss yeltsin in couping the russian government, plus causing incalculable misery and immiseration to russia's people through shock therapy

Russia is a big boy country and is responsible for its own policies. In any case we won't know how Shock Therapy would have worked because they mainly implemented the privatization part that enabked apparachiks to loot the Soviet corpse from top to bottom and didn't implement the financial liberalization that would have forced the elite to give up some control.

Russia had the resources to take care of its people. It got financial aid from the West and has massive fossil fuel reserves. The leadership chose to steal it and let its people starve. Putin himself made his first millions controlling western aid coming into St. Petersburg.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

mllaneza posted:

Russian ammo dumps, not a palette in sight. They're stacking boxes of shells on dirt.

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1547767629602910210

The ground moisture is going to soak into those boxes and then into the shells. They're going to get so many duds and premature detonations.

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Clavavisage
Nov 12, 2011

Young Freud posted:

The ground moisture is going to soak into those boxes and then into the shells. They're going to get so many duds and premature detonations.

That's why my tinder profile says "really down to earth"

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