Climate Change: There are no jobs on a dead planet

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Climate Change: There are no jobs on a dead planet

khwarezm: Oct 26, 2010; Deal with it.

https://twitter.com/Leigh_Phillips/status/1557423036235517952
I was looking at Leigh Phillips twitter feed after reading his Newstatesman article and its sort of hard to take him seriously due to stuff like this, it seems like he just holds a jumble of confused opinions based on a deaf sense of workerism, ie there's intrinsic value to mining because its perceived as a major part of historic, stereotypical working class culture, especially in places like Britain.

Yes mining isn't going to actually go away but I think its probably quite important to keep it at a minimum because its negative environmental effects are really hard to fight.

# ? Aug 12, 2022 02:57

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# ? Jun 8, 2024 00:35

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

A big flaming stink posted:

We have been shown over and over again that scientists' models of the effects of climate change have grossly underestimated the magnitude of those changes. You'd be a fool to assume that truly catastrophic effects are decades away

May you show us a few report that shows earlier estimates and impacts of global warming were incorrect single report beyond a sensational Guardian article? Be specific, what catastrophic effects are decades away?

# ? Aug 12, 2022 02:58

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

A big flaming stink posted:

how r u, the main disconnect between you and other posters in this thread is that you approach legislation like this under the mindset of "any progress is progress, and incremental efforts can compound on themselves" while many others tend to view these acts as "if things dont meet a certain threshold, our civilization is irrevocably hosed" and conclude these acts fall far short of that threshold

I kind of agree with you here. I do indeed think that any progress is progress, and that incremental efforts over time compound on themselves and become something much bigger than they may have been to start with.

As to your own view, well, I grappled with and endured a lot of depression about the very real possibility that our civilization is hosed. Indeed. Here's a few thoughts I have about that, today:

1) The future is not written in stone, it hasn't happened yet, so effort and progress are still worth making and fighting for.

2) "Irrevocably hosed" could mean a lot of different things. If it means anything other than "utter extinction of human beings" then I would say that any progress we can make as quickly as we can make it is still absolutely valuable in and of itself, because changes today mean the bar is lowered in the future. This progress that we're making today in the form of the IRA is a solid first step, even as a compromise with some bitter concessions.

3) If we are indeed "irrevocably hosed" the way you seem to be implying, which from what I'm picking up is fairly apocalyptic / extinction of humanity, then I myself, one man, cannot stop it. If it is on its way no matter what then it still seems to me that we should take every action we can as soon as we can to try to mitigate it and pray for a miracle while we're at it. I'll take whatever progress is possible today, fight for whatever progress is possible tomorrow, and never give up.

# ? Aug 12, 2022 03:22

A big flaming stink: Apr 26, 2010

i would like to point out our civilization, as in how it is organized currently, is what is irrevocably hosed, i fully expect the human species to survive

# ? Aug 12, 2022 06:38

Scam Likely: Feb 19, 2021

How are u posted:

Since this is more of a fact-based climate change discussion thread rather than whatever that other thread is, could you provide some evidence that we'll be living in a "Mad Max-like hellscape" 20 years from now? Or define what you mean by that?

Our great great grandfathers would be amazed to see the ease with which we draw clean potable water from a tap in our home, or switch on lights with barely a thought to the fact.

Our great great grandkids will be amazed at the ease with which we drew clean potable water from a tap in our home, or switched on lights with barely a thought to the fact.

Seriously, we're living in an era of comfort and ease that will be looked at with critical contempt by future generations.

# ? Aug 12, 2022 07:15

Vitamin Me: Mar 30, 2007

How are u posted:

Since this is more of a fact-based climate change discussion thread rather than whatever that other thread is, could you provide some evidence that we'll be living in a "Mad Max-like hellscape" 20 years from now? Or define what you mean by that?

Other posters have done a better job at this (and props to 'em) but all I'll say is some towns in France actually ran out of drinking water this summer.

# ? Aug 12, 2022 07:35

Vitamin Me: Mar 30, 2007

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

May you show us a few report that shows earlier estimates and impacts of global warming were incorrect single report beyond a sensational Guardian article? Be specific, what catastrophic effects are decades away?

Pretty sure the catastrophic effects are here, now. Just turn on any report on tv about farmers in France or Italy right now (hint: crops are failing). Hell, in the Netherlands farmers mixed with the alt-right are fighting tooth-and-nail against having to sell some animals for the climate goals.

# ? Aug 12, 2022 07:50

SlowBloke: Aug 14, 2017

Vitamin Me posted:

Pretty sure the catastrophic effects are here, now. Just turn on any report on tv about farmers in France or Italy right now (hint: crops are failing). Hell, in the Netherlands farmers mixed with the alt-right are fighting tooth-and-nail against having to sell some animals for the climate goals.

It's not just crops failing due to lack of water, it's also river transport(which includes lignite on the Rhine for germany) being impossible for the standard boats which is messing up logistics big time.

# ? Aug 12, 2022 10:56

Gort: Aug 18, 2003; Good day what ho cup of tea

Drought just got officially declared in South-East England

# ? Aug 12, 2022 13:46

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

smug n stuff posted:

Here�s an interesting read: https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2022/08/would-there-be-climate-change-under-socialism
It�s obviously mostly a hot take provocation but the argument is that climate change would have been worse if socialism had won the 20th century, but that we would be able to fix it much more quickly (the author self-identifies as a socialist)

Just had some time to go through it. Interesting that the author decides to go with spherical socialism in a vacuum instead of, you know, what we've been most likely to get in the form of USSR/China. Both have been an absolute disaster for the environment, as everyone knows. The premise is then that there would be more emissions (but that's good) and then socialism would solve everything faster once it's clear climate change is a problem, since there wouldn't be a profit motive etc:

quote:

The difference between capitalism and socialism with respect to climate change (or any other environmental problem) is that under the latter, once any ecological threat from a technology is discovered, the main barrier to switching away from that technology is the speed with which scientists and engineers can develop alternative technologies that don�t cause the identified harm while still delivering the same benefit.
...
Putting all this together, the most we can say is that even though global warming would likely be worse under socialism by the time the full scale of its threat was discovered in the 1980s, the response would have been more rapid and more egalitarian than that of our existing capitalist world.

This is all hypothetical speculation of course but here's a fun article I read just today which is about whale hunting. Let's see what happened when everyone realized we murdered almost all the whales.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/08/the-soviet-union-once-hunted-endangered-whales-to-the-brink-of-extinction/

quote:

By the mid-1950s, even longtime whalers had to admit that big whales were becoming too scarce for their industries to be profitable. All nations except Japan began to ponder the end of whaling.

It thus came as a shock when the Soviet Union announced in 1956 that it planned to build seven new �floating factories��gigantic industrial processing ships, accompanied by fleets of smaller �catcher� boats that would scour the oceans for whales.

Soviet whale scientists were as stunned as observers elsewhere. These biologists and oceanographers had been watching the decline from ships and from their labs in the Fisheries Ministry and Academy of Sciences since the 1930s.

Instead of supporting the fleet expansion, they argued forcefully that whales stood on the brink of extinction, and whaling should decrease radically, not expand. This was how the Soviet planned economy was meant to work: Science, not profit, would help guide economic decisions, letting planners know how much could be extracted from the natural world and when to stop.

But Soviet officials were determined to finally catch whales on a large scale, as Western nations had done for so long. The Fisheries Ministry ignored its scientists� recommendations and built five of the seven planned floating factories over the next decade.

By the 1960s, the Soviet Union was the world�s largest whaling nation. Whalers such as the legendary captain Aleksei Solyanik were celebrated as superstars, comparable to astronauts like Yuri Gagarin.

But the scientists had been right: Many whale species were nearly gone. To produce large catches, Solyanik and other captains decided to ignore international quotas and secretly targeted the most endangered whale species, including blue, humpback, and fin whales in the Antarctic and the North Pacific.

In 1961, for example, Soviet fleets killed 9,619 rare humpbacks south of New Zealand, while reporting only 302 to the IWC. This was only a portion of their global catch, which the Soviet Union continued to underreport for years. Driven by Moscow�s demands for ever-increasing production, whalers worked at reckless speed, wasting much of the fat and meat taken from the dead whales. It is doubtful the industry was ever profitable.

# ? Aug 12, 2022 19:56

theCalamity: Oct 23, 2010; Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War

https://twitter.com/grist/status/1558157372165705730?s=21&t=i9IM54niWHPI1ksEHIHR8A

# ? Aug 12, 2022 20:13

Cabbages and VHS: Aug 25, 2004; Listen, I've been around a bit, you know, and I thought I'd seen some creepy things go on in the movie business, but I really have to say this is the most disgusting thing that's ever happened to me.

Uranium Phoenix posted:

I'm going to address the bolded claim, which I think is completely wrong.

I agree that it's completely wrong and that was intended to be obvious irony. VOTE HARDER. I don't think any of the things you suggested are capable of meaningfully moving the bar at this point, either, but we might as well try because it's better than doing nothing! I'm a lot more focused on forming the kinds of networks that might make life here more tolerable under some foreseen eventualities than any kind of activism, but ultimately it comes down to trying to see what can be sourced locally, what can't be that we can just start living without now, and other things that are broadly aligned with making things more "sustainable". I will just personally be shocked if that matters, because I do generally think we're beyond hosed, I just don't let that be a reason to not be thoughtful and forward looking.

Sharkie posted:

Yep! Low-income households would only have to pay 70% of the cost of installing rooftop solar panels (they'd have to pay 100% up front but then they get a tax credit).

The for-profit model for doing this has been to sell people solar panels that are monetized by the installer such that the people pay "their average current energy bill" over X years until the system is paid off. I will be curious to see how much cheaper the bottom line ends up being, for us, as well as for low-income families. Solar adoption is already decent here but I'd be a little surprised if this pushes it a lot harder. On the other hand, most states aren't nearly as solar as Vermont afaik.

If there's sufficient incentives for us to get out from under owning an oil tank and get a heat pump plus solar instead that would be great but I am not holding my breath. I don't think it's going to matter too much in terms of not having massive global famines etc in mine and my children's lifetimes, but it would probably make us generally healthier and let me not spend $6/gal on filthy poo poo I hate ordering.

Cabbages and VHS fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Aug 12, 2022

# ? Aug 12, 2022 20:13

Cabbages and VHS: Aug 25, 2004; Listen, I've been around a bit, you know, and I thought I'd seen some creepy things go on in the movie business, but I really have to say this is the most disgusting thing that's ever happened to me.

BIG HEADLINE posted:

Oh, whew. False alarm, everybody! The apocalypse is cancelled!

https://bgr.com/science/mit-scientists-think-theyve-discovered-how-to-fully-reverse-climate-change/

username/post

edit: LOL! They couldn't even get through the subheadline without walking it back astronomically

# ? Aug 12, 2022 20:21

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

theCalamity posted:

https://twitter.com/grist/status/1558157372165705730?s=21&t=i9IM54niWHPI1ksEHIHR8A

It's just funny at this point.

# ? Aug 12, 2022 23:13

Arglebargle III: Feb 21, 2006

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/tote-fische-in-der-oder-hintergrund-101.html

ah dang somebody killed the Oder

# ? Aug 12, 2022 23:32

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Vitamin Me posted:

Pretty sure the catastrophic effects are here, now. Just turn on any report on tv about farmers in France or Italy right now (hint: crops are failing). Hell, in the Netherlands farmers mixed with the alt-right are fighting tooth-and-nail against having to sell some animals for the climate goals.

Okay but how does this dispute earlier estimates?

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

May you show us a few report that shows earlier estimates and impacts of global warming were incorrect single report beyond a sensational Guardian article? Be specific, what catastrophic effects are decades away?

# ? Aug 12, 2022 23:47

MightyBigMinus: Jan 26, 2020

not sure where else to put this, but i follow them for climate change reasons so figured i'd try here

https://twitter.com/EviationAero/status/1558241665717981184

this thing has been in-the-works with articles and renders for nearly a decade, they're finally gonna try and fly it this weekend

if you want a hardcore deep dive into how the battery and body and engines were all designed together, this is a presentation the founder and former ceo gave to/at stanford a few months ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECLVueViDe0&t=3770s

he got fired by the lead investor a week later, and the first flight got delayed, but it looks like this weekend may finally be it

tldw for the video:
- 9 passengers
- 500 miles range
- 800kwh li-ion battery

MightyBigMinus fucked around with this message at 02:00 on Aug 13, 2022

# ? Aug 13, 2022 01:57

Vitamin Me: Mar 30, 2007

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Okay but how does this dispute earlier estimates?

My whole point was that it doesn't matter what things were estimated, and if the actual results are greater/lesser..because we already are suffering disastrous effects.

Anyway, I always pictured climate coverage to become like in the movies, where if there's an invasion or something all the tv networks shout about it lol. In reality, the earth can burn up and it will still be 1% of news between celebrity gossip and talkshows.

# ? Aug 13, 2022 06:17

Not Alex: Oct 9, 2012; Cut loose before the god eaters show up.

What's the fail state of the incrementalist argument? At what point can a person proclaim poo poo's hosed without someone chirping about 10% emission reductions among beet canneries or some other hopeful gibberish? Will we be subjected to breathless reports about how rising deathtolls bring us ever closer to Paris goals?

If they truly "never stop fighting" regardless of magnitude can we just replace them with an asterisk that reads "*Doom not absolute" in the footnotes? It contributes just as much to the conversation.

# ? Aug 14, 2022 04:33

MightyBigMinus: Jan 26, 2020

shadow boxing the tone police never gets you anywhere

# ? Aug 14, 2022 05:13

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1558526972371914754

# ? Aug 14, 2022 06:18

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1558526972371914754

The thing I hadn't considered was the fact they can't run nuclear power plants because of how low and hot the rivers are. Kind of starts a chain of thought where you consider how climate change can gently caress other non polluting energy sources.

# ? Aug 14, 2022 08:38

BIG HEADLINE: Jun 13, 2006; "Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1558526972371914754

So what you're saying is "cheap airline tickets to Europe soon?" :shepicide:

# ? Aug 14, 2022 08:50

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

a pipe smoking dog posted:

The thing I hadn't considered was the fact they can't run nuclear power plants because of how low and hot the rivers are. Kind of starts a chain of thought where you consider how climate change can gently caress other non polluting energy sources.

I think we've talked about this exact thing in the thread.ike rivers being too hot to effectively cool the reactor down due to climate change

# ? Aug 14, 2022 08:55

Criss-cross: Jun 14, 2022; by Fluffdaddy

a pipe smoking dog posted:

The thing I hadn't considered was the fact they can't run nuclear power plants because of how low and hot the rivers are. Kind of starts a chain of thought where you consider how climate change can gently caress other non polluting energy sources.

Nuclear power isn't non-polluting at all, unless nuclear waste isn't "pollution" to you.

# ? Aug 14, 2022 09:52

His Divine Shadow: Aug 7, 2000; I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

Well, it's a pretty small issue.

https://twitter.com/MadiHilly/status/1550148385931513856

His Divine Shadow fucked around with this message at 09:58 on Aug 14, 2022

# ? Aug 14, 2022 09:54

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Criss-cross posted:

Nuclear power isn't non-polluting at all, unless nuclear waste isn't "pollution" to you.

I guess pollutants by definition are interacting with the environment, so properly stored nuclear waste would not be a pollutant no

# ? Aug 14, 2022 10:02

Clarste: Apr 15, 2013; Just how many mistakes have you suffered on the way here?

An uncountable number, to be sure.

Well, the most relevant thing here is that nuclear waste has no particular effect on the climate.

Clarste fucked around with this message at 11:16 on Aug 14, 2022

# ? Aug 14, 2022 11:13

MightyBigMinus: Jan 26, 2020

unless you count waste-heat, which you should

# ? Aug 14, 2022 15:26

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

MightyBigMinus posted:

unless you count waste-heat, which you should

No you shouldn't lol, that's not relevant for the climate as a whole. The amount of energy is many orders of magnitude smaller than what matters on a global scale. Local effects on water temp, sure, but that's it.

This is just like the climate change deniers who think the world is getting warmer because there's more geothermal heat.

# ? Aug 14, 2022 15:34

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Vitamin Me posted:

My whole point was that it doesn't matter what things were estimated, and if the actual results are greater/lesser..because we already are suffering disastrous effects.

Anyway, I always pictured climate coverage to become like in the movies, where if there's an invasion or something all the tv networks shout about it lol. In reality, the earth can burn up and it will still be 1% of news between celebrity gossip and talkshows.

There will be disastrous effects even under 1.5C but that doesn't mean it's going to end up like Mad Max or the Day After Tomorrow. Hell, even if we miss the Paris Accord it's unlikely that'll occur but it'll depend. Those in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere may not much of a difference. On the other hand, those near the equator right next to the ocean aren't going to have the best time.

# ? Aug 14, 2022 17:54

theCalamity: Oct 23, 2010; Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War

I thought the Mad Max comparison was mostly about societal breakdown which one could argue that we're beginning to see the beginnings of right now.

# ? Aug 14, 2022 18:15

Irony.or.Death: Apr 1, 2009

There's no consensus on what it means because half the posters here have only seen Fury Road.

# ? Aug 14, 2022 19:10

smug n stuff: Jul 21, 2016; A Hobbit's Adventure

https://twitter.com/YanQinyq/status/1559588325157126146

WSJ claims Germany plans to keep nuclear plants going, Germany says they haven't decided yet.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 18:27

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Have the Germans finally decided to stop punching themselves in the balls?

# ? Aug 16, 2022 18:45

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

cat botherer posted:

Have the Germans finally decided to stop punching themselves in the balls?

This will be a sea-change in the German porn industry.

But anyway, I really hope this is the case

# ? Aug 16, 2022 18:49

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

Biden signed the IRA into law a few minutes ago. This is a pivotal day for the USA in our fight to transition to a new clean economy. It's a lifetime's work, and this is just the beginning.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 21:45

A big flaming stink: Apr 26, 2010

How are u posted:

Biden signed the IRA into law a few minutes ago. This is a pivotal day for the USA in our fight to transition to a new clean economy. It's a lifetime's work, and this is just the beginning.

This will do nothing to avert the coming climate catastrophe. We simply do not have the time for incrementalism, and the climate does not give a drat about what is politically possible.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 06:10

BIG HEADLINE: Jun 13, 2006; "Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

A big flaming stink posted:

This will do nothing to avert the coming climate catastrophe. We simply do not have the time for incrementalism, and the climate does not give a drat about what is politically possible.

Pretty sure he was being facetious.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 06:12

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# ? Jun 8, 2024 00:35

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Failed Imagineer posted:

This will be a sea-change in the German porn industry.

But anyway, I really hope this is the case

They're really going to eat poo poo if they walk this back. :metis:

# ? Aug 17, 2022 15:16

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