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Dwesa posted:there was some building on the site of every crater Notice how two buildings have shadows and two don't. that's because two of them aren't buildings
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Aug 16, 2022 15:14
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fatherboxx posted:One operational Sapsan just as one operational Bohdana self-propelled artillery and three existing Neptun missiles? Those are as real as T-14 Armata and you should treat reports about them as pure investment pitches for the future. I thought they showed video of the Bohdana firing and it was geolocated to off the coast from Snake Island? Ukraine would seem to have the technology and know-how to make a howitzer so I don't see why they couldn't have one. It might not be particularly good relative to western kit and the military significance is marginal but there's no reason why it couldn't exist.
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Aug 16, 2022 15:21
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Russian nationalist and author Maksim Kalashnikov, here: https://wartranslated.com/pro-soviet-russian-author-maksim-kalashnikov-on-why-declaring-russia-terrorist-state-is-a-bad-omen-for-the-regime/ snips: The authorities of the Russian Federation have come to the present moment, having lost almost 20 years and trillions of dollars, but have not carried out industrialisation 2.0, have not created the Image of the Future and ideology, have not done away with the former looting “elite”. Completely unprepared for the most serious tests. Basically, the “elite” has remained “trophy” – able only to divide and take away, and not to create. And with the announcement by the Americans of the Kremlin as a sponsor (of terrorism), all this support may disappear. “Elite” does not know how to live like this... Since the beginning of 2022, we have clearly seen the real abilities (capabilities) of the current system in managing the state and the economy, the ability to conduct military operations and intelligence operations, foreign policy and personnel selection. The results are disappointing. The desire not to change anything today has turned into bills payable, presented by history. Unpleasantly and unexpectedly as a new reality for the authorities. There are no victories in science and technology, in space, the tales no longer work, such as: “But we have strengthened the army unprecedentedly and acquired weapons of unprecedented power.” And the longer the campaign drags on, the more unpopular it becomes. As a result, it turns out that the only support of power remains the power apparatus [FSB and co.]. But sitting on bayonets is uncomfortable and dangerous. The moment has really come to a head. As in 1915-1916…
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Aug 16, 2022 15:32
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catfry posted:Notice how two buildings have shadows and two don't. that's because two of them aren't buildings No, but I am pretty convinced that those are what a bunch of haphazardly stacked ammo crates look like from above. Also the argument isn't purely "big craters are buildings or missile strikes" - you've also got to look at what got hit and think about why. If these were missile strikes, they seem to have quite clearly targeted the buildings and the weird not-buildings instead of any of the parked aircraft. That's kind of hard to explain unless those areas have some significance, and open air ammo/fuel storage seems most likely in that case - so we're back to square one with the craters not really telling us anything definitive. Chalks fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Aug 16, 2022 |
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Aug 16, 2022 15:42
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Yes. It does look like each crater corresponds to some pre-existing explodey thing, and so I agree that it isn't necessary for the attack to have brought much of their own, which seems to be in favor of this spec ops rainbow seal team 6 theory.
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Aug 16, 2022 15:49
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That was a very large boom in Crimea earlier today https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1559559974254256129?s=20&t=xFiW_z1lnGJaGQc0VONKsA
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Aug 16, 2022 16:27
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It was never clear to me to what extent Zelensky publicly denying any possibility of war in the weeks leading up to it was his genuine belief
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Aug 16, 2022 16:33
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Owling Howl posted:I thought they showed video of the Bohdana firing and it was geolocated to off the coast from Snake Island? Of course it could, but it doesn't. It did not pass trials to go into production and is not actually used. Blame Ukrainian MIC that is cursed with the same diseases of its Russian counterpart.
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Aug 16, 2022 16:33
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Rinkles posted:It was never clear to me to what extent Zelensky publicly denying any possibility of war in the weeks leading up to it was his genuine belief Probably some amount of wishful thinking, but mostly him trying to keep peace and calm in the face of likely yet another paper tiger sable-rattling from Russian, as had been the case for every provocation since the 2014 invasion.
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Aug 16, 2022 17:00
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Fuschia tude posted:Probably some amount of wishful thinking, but mostly him trying to keep peace and calm in the face of likely yet another paper tiger sable-rattling from Russian, as had been the case for every provocation since the 2014 invasion. There was also no idea just how long Putin would keep doing his game of driving troops around Ukraine and to and from the border. Keeping defenders in constant readiness for weeks is tiring in itself.
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Aug 16, 2022 17:14
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This is also a once in a generation war, the last time there was something on this scale was the Yugoslav Wars. Really this is the end of the post-Cold War European order established after the fall of the Soviet Union. He can be forgiven for underestimating Russian ambitions because those ambitions don't align with reality.
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Aug 16, 2022 17:19
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Morrow posted:This is also a once in a generation war, the last time there was something on this scale was the Yugoslav Wars. Really this is the end of the post-Cold War European order established after the fall of the Soviet Union. I hope they weren’t denying it after Putin made his speech showing that he straight up thought Ukraine belonged to Russia without any hedging. Admittedly before that time Putin seemed just evil not evil and crazy so I can understand thinking Putin knew an invasion was a bad idea, after that speech though it was pretty drat obvious he did not care about reality and was definitely invading.
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Aug 16, 2022 18:33
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MadDogMike posted:I hope they weren’t denying it after Putin made his speech showing that he straight up thought Ukraine belonged to Russia without any hedging. Admittedly before that time Putin seemed just evil not evil and crazy so I can understand thinking Putin knew an invasion was a bad idea, after that speech though it was pretty drat obvious he did not care about reality and was definitely invading.
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Aug 16, 2022 18:41
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Mr. Apollo posted:I think they're referring to the US publicly and privately warning everyone about the invasion and everyone, including Ukraine, seemed to downplay the possibility or outright dismiss it until that speech. Considering the US made up all kinds of pretences to start wars in the last 20 years, everyone can be forgiven for thinking that maybe this was just another example of that. Also there’s a lot of political ramifications to pre-emptively calling a mobilization only for Putin to carry out a normal exercise and not carry out his attack after all. This is one of those weird moments in history like the July crisis in WW1, isolationist tendencies by the US pre Pearl Harbor and the possibility the British could have deposed Churchill and tried to sign a peace deal with the Nazis.
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Aug 16, 2022 19:03
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Let's not forget how poor Russia's attempts were to create justifications. Remember the fake amputee video and the videos of sheds on fire? At the time I recall that a lot of people felt Zelensky was trying to calm his own military, he didn't want them to overreact and give Russia the justification they were desperately looking for.
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Aug 16, 2022 19:30
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Kraftwerk posted:Considering the US made up all kinds of pretences to start wars in the last 20 years, everyone can be forgiven for thinking that maybe this was just another example of that. Anyone insane enough to think the US was looking to start a war with Russia this year should not be forgiven, only medicated. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 16, 2022 19:53
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saratoga posted:Anyone insane enough to think the US was looking to start a war with Russia this year should not be forgiven, only medicated. In this case, I don't think anyone was thinking the US was intentionally wanting to start some poo poo, just that we had gotten bad and unreliable at this whole intelligence thing, and since we weren't showing the receipts (except maybe quietly to the UK), it was tough for anyone to believe us.
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Aug 16, 2022 20:03
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https://twitter.com/wammezz/status/1559594729179947013
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Aug 16, 2022 20:13
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Kraftwerk posted:Considering the US made up all kinds of pretences to start wars in the last 20 years, everyone can be forgiven for thinking that maybe this was just another example of that. There is nothing weird, surprising, or out of character about Putin's Russia going aggro and anyone who was skeptical of this invasion because AMERICA should still be embarrassed. Sorry!
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Aug 16, 2022 20:22
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Grape posted:There is nothing weird, surprising, or out of character about Putin's Russia going aggro and anyone who was skeptical of this invasion because AMERICA should still be embarrassed. Sorry! It is literally the first ground invasion in Europe in how many years after how many interventions and made up stories from the US in how many years?
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Aug 16, 2022 20:56
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MadDogMike posted:I hope they weren’t denying it after Putin made his speech showing that he straight up thought Ukraine belonged to Russia without any hedging. Admittedly before that time Putin seemed just evil not evil and crazy so I can understand thinking Putin knew an invasion was a bad idea, after that speech though it was pretty drat obvious he did not care about reality and was definitely invading. That speech was an unreal moment. It felt like something out of the 19th century, like "Oh...OH, that's the paradigm we're going with?" The most unnerving thing was the lack of cynicism, just straight up imperialist revanchism.
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Aug 16, 2022 21:00
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Electric Wrigglies posted:It is literally the first ground invasion in Europe in how many years after how many interventions and made up stories from the US in how many years? Since 2014 when they invaded the same place.
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Aug 16, 2022 21:08
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DJ_Mindboggler posted:That speech was an unreal moment. It felt like something out of the 19th century, like "Oh...OH, that's the paradigm we're going with?" The most unnerving thing was the lack of cynicism, just straight up imperialist revanchism. All of that week was just bonkers. That televised hearing with the head of Russia's foreign intelligence was just  and gave the appearance that the script was ready, just not all the actors had rehearsed it.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI
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Aug 16, 2022 21:08
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marxismftw posted:Since 2014 when they invaded the same place. Wild that the Ukrainian leadership of all people told them to tone it down then
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Aug 16, 2022 21:21
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FishBulbia posted:Wild that the Ukrainian leadership of all people told them to tone it down then They had their objectives for minimising panic, not really surprising.
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Aug 16, 2022 21:56
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Electric Wrigglies posted:It is literally the first ground invasion in Europe in how many years after how many interventions and made up stories from the US in how many years? It's the 3rd Russian ground invasion in Europe in 14 years.
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Aug 16, 2022 22:07
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Owling Howl posted:It's the 3rd Russian ground invasion in Europe in 14 years. The first one without a clear pretext, motivation, goal, or being an opportunistic reaction to something. The lesson, it turns out, is that just naked conquest for its own sake without any deeper strategy behind it is still a thing in 21st century.
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Aug 16, 2022 22:11
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FishBulbia posted:Wild that the Ukrainian leadership of all people told them to tone it down then I read it as more that the Russian plan was so obviously insane that rational people had trouble believing the evidence in front of them. But of course such thinking is a stupid as it is dangerous. History is often driven by irrational and objectively poor decisions by people who should have known better, and this isn't even the first time Europe has found itself sleepwalking towards a Russian war.
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Aug 16, 2022 23:29
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Electric Wrigglies posted:It is literally the first ground invasion in Europe in how many years after how many interventions and made up stories from the US in how many years? 2000, 2008, 2014, 2018, and they had spent a long time massing at the borders in 2021 and 2022... Russia had been racking up the European invasions in the 2000s. They had invaded Ukraine TWICE already in 8 years and were both massing up on Ukraine's borders again, and still occupying large parts of Ukraine from the previous invasions. Going "IT'S JUST AMERICAN LIES" is extremely... uhh... silly at that point. steinrokkan posted:The first one without a clear pretext, motivation, goal, or being an opportunistic reaction to something. The lesson, it turns out, is that just naked conquest for its own sake without any deeper strategy behind it is still a thing in 21st century. I don't know, I think Putin and Russia's own words through the years and the previous invasions given pretty clear motivation and goals. Just because they are irrational and insane doesn't mean that they don't exist.
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Aug 16, 2022 23:32
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saratoga posted:I read it as more that the Russian plan was so obviously insane that rational people had trouble believing the evidence in front of them. Yeah it was pretty obviously bonkers, they were planning to invade and occupy the largest country in Europe of 40 million people with like 150k troops? Nobody expected that to be the actual plan that master strategist Putin would come up with. Obviously the mistake was failing to account for Putin's mistaken thinking that he doesn't actually need an army to invade and everyone would welcome him immediately with open arms. I still need to read that WaPo article, I think how much and who hosed up would really depend on what was known and when, and hot it was communicated at the time.
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Aug 17, 2022 00:07
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Michael Koffman made an interesting point earlier in the war that the specialist analysts tended to judge intent more accurately whereas the generalist analysts tended to judge capability more accurately. A preponderance of the Russian specialists were saying, "Putin is definitely going to invade." The generalists said, "There's no way Putin will invade because there's no way 150,000 soldiers can conquer a nation of 40 million." I thought it was an interesting observation.
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Aug 17, 2022 00:11
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mobby_6kl posted:I still need to read that WaPo article, I think how much and who hosed up would really depend on what was known and when, and hot it was communicated at the time. The headline is kind of sensational but the actual article doesn't really frame it as anyone "loving up" and it even points out that people in the intelligence/defense community around the world were skeptical of US intelligence because of prior "sure things" like the invasions of Afghanistan, Iraq, and our recent withdrawal from Afghanistan. It sounds like only the UK and the Baltic States agreed with the US assessment. It also has interviews with Zelensky where he says (paraphrased) "yeah, they were telling us this, but how could anyone believe it?" and that's fair. It's unfathomable to some extent that this is happening today. He also said "ok, if this is true, we need X Y and Z weapons to defend ourselves" and the US wouldn't give them to them, so what does it matter that they had the information?
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Aug 17, 2022 00:47
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I can only imagine the shrieking from certain parties if the US preemptively helped arm Ukraine.
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Aug 17, 2022 00:57
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fatherboxx posted:One operational Sapsan just as one operational Bohdana self-propelled artillery and three existing Neptun missiles? Those are as real as T-14 Armata and you should treat reports about them as pure investment pitches for the future. I mean, the Ukrainians literally have one production missile system and ammunition for one or two full salvos. They have had it since 2019, when production was halted due to cost. Production was refunded in March after the invasion; however, I have no idea if that production line has actually started.
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Aug 17, 2022 01:00
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Rinkles posted:I can only imagine the shrieking from certain parties if the US preemptively helped arm Ukraine. The US kinda did though, in many, many ways before the invasion kicked off. Trump even got impeached for dragging his feet on it (and you know, the crimes).
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Aug 17, 2022 01:16
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marxismftw posted:The US kinda did though, in many, many ways before the invasion kicked off. Trump even got impeached for dragging his feet on it (and you know, the crimes). Sure, but I meant in direct response to the Russian build up.
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Aug 17, 2022 01:21
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And now, something completely different https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1559548034853310470
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Aug 17, 2022 01:30
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mobby_6kl posted:Yeah it was pretty obviously bonkers, they were planning to invade and occupy the largest country in Europe of 40 million people with like 150k troops? Nobody expected that to be the actual plan that master strategist Putin would come up with. I was in the boat that thought that Russia wouldn’t invade because it seemed like it had a high chance of going completely rear end-shart for them (as it appears to be doing currently). I even remember going on RT a few days before the invasion and there was some bombastic puff piece titled something like ‘Bloodthirsty Joe Biden wants Russia to invade Ukraine so as many Russians die as possible.” And at seeing that headline I thought “Russia will never invade. There is no way they are that stupid, and even their propaganda mouthpiece is indicating they won’t invade. Not gonna happen.” Yet alas here we are. I think Putin will go down in history as one of the biggest noobs of Machiavellian statecraft
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Aug 17, 2022 01:45
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Chill Monster posted:I was in the boat that thought that Russia wouldn’t invade because it seemed like it had a high chance of going completely rear end-shart for them (as it appears to be doing currently). I even remember going on RT a few days before the invasion and there was some bombastic puff piece titled something like ‘Bloodthirsty Joe Biden wants Russia to invade Ukraine so as many Russians die as possible.” And at seeing that headline I thought “Russia will never invade. There is no way they are that stupid, and even their propaganda mouthpiece is indicating they won’t invade. Not gonna happen.” Yet alas here we are. It seems like the whole point of that was to cause doubt and make the West fold in the face of the invasion. I mean, nobody should have been surprised that the invasion happened, considering they had been building up for the invasion for quite some time. People just like to take Russia at their word, and Russia was saying every possible thing for people to latch onto something they agreed with to try and weaken Ukraine's support. I do think it was probably out of pure pragmatism that Ukraine did its best to pretend the invasion wasn't happening, so I can't really fault them.
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Aug 17, 2022 01:54
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the popes toes posted:And now, something completely different Seems legit. Again, Russia prefers the answer for "Why did Russian weapon X fail?" to be "incompetence" rather than Western or Ukrainian weapons or Ukrainian war planning.
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Aug 17, 2022 01:56
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