READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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Kraftwerk: Aug 13, 2011; i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

the popes toes posted:

And now, something completely different

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1559548034853310470

I mean they're not wrong. They aren't superweapons.

But they do allow for precision strikes against Russian military weak points providing some limited tactical gains that keep Ukraine in the fight. But nothing the west has sent so far is making a decisive difference in shifting the initiative in Ukraine's favor and giving them a strong offensive capability. With their limited resources they've been forced into making the Russians pay dearly for every piece of territory they eventually take. The question remains, how much attrition can Russia take before it gives up vs Ukraine and will Ukraine have enough forces and machinery left to take back their lands?

# ? Aug 17, 2022 01:56

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# ? May 29, 2024 12:49

Pook Good Mook: Aug 6, 2013; ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

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Kraftwerk posted:

I mean they're not wrong. They aren't superweapons.

But they do allow for precision strikes against Russian military weak points providing some limited tactical gains that keep Ukraine in the fight. But nothing the west has sent so far is making a decisive difference in shifting the initiative in Ukraine's favor and giving them a strong offensive capability. With their limited resources they've been forced into making the Russians pay dearly for every piece of territory they eventually take. The question remains, how much attrition can Russia take before it gives up vs Ukraine and will Ukraine have enough forces and machinery left to take back their lands?

Do we forget the first two months of the war that quickly? The Russians are taking Kiev and Kharkiv without Western spy satellites, anti tank weapons, and intelligence.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 01:59

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Very good people on both sides -Erdogan, probably
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1559593154105548803?t=dZw5mwNkOhUSdp1Z0Qp04w&s=19

# ? Aug 17, 2022 02:05

FishBulbia: Dec 22, 2021

Ukrainian refugees who were deported via Russia not permitted to enter Europe, and are considered tainted by Rashism

https://twitter.com/levushkan/status/1559534271588597761

# ? Aug 17, 2022 02:17

Grape: Nov 16, 2017; Happily shilling for China!

mobby_6kl posted:

Yeah it was pretty obviously bonkers, they were planning to invade and occupy the largest country in Europe of 40 million people with like 150k troops? Nobody expected that to be the actual plan that master strategist Putin would come up with.

Obviously the mistake was failing to account for Putin's mistaken thinking that he doesn't actually need an army to invade and everyone would welcome him immediately with open arms.

I still need to read that WaPo article, I think how much and who hosed up would really depend on what was known and when, and hot it was communicated at the time.

Anyone paying any attention to Russia at all, and not blinkered by seeing it as some kind of bastion of brave anti-west thought, didn't think twice about Russia being a nasty as gently caress bitter former empire capable of naked imperialism.
But yes the big difference such as there was one was that it was much more ambitious and seemingly stupid than before, since Putin had (and I was a victim of this as much as anyone) fostered such a strong image of being a careful chess player type.

Turns out he has the same old dictator ego brain worms.

Grape fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Aug 17, 2022

# ? Aug 17, 2022 02:40

the popes toes: Oct 10, 2004

I don't believe Erdogan is playing both ends against the middle but rather trying to straddle the middle for advantage, mostly economic. I'm sure he'd like to be a diplomatic middleman between the two, and have no doubt he's carrying a Russian message of sorts. That's a good thing really, as both sides have to talk eventually. And I'm sure he'll find that Ukraine likely feels there no point to talking at the moment. And that will be Ukraine's message that he will carry back to Mr. Putin.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 02:54

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

mobby_6kl posted:

Yeah it was pretty obviously bonkers, they were planning to invade and occupy the largest country in Europe of 40 million people with like 150k troops? Nobody expected that to be the actual plan that master strategist Putin would come up with.

Obviously the mistake was failing to account for Putin's mistaken thinking that he doesn't actually need an army to invade and everyone would welcome him immediately with open arms.

I still need to read that WaPo article, I think how much and who hosed up would really depend on what was known and when, and hot it was communicated at the time.

Funny enough the analyst quoted in the article uses the exact same language.

WaPo posted:

Some European officials were still unconvinced that an attack was coming. One told a reporter, �We have no clear evidence ourselves that Putin has made up his mind, and we have not seen anything that would suggest otherwise.�

�It felt otherworldly,� the British official said. In sideline conversations, U.S. and British officials were convinced of an imminent invasion, but �that just wasn�t the mood in the hall.�

Some in London began to doubt themselves, the British official said. �People were saying [we] got it wrong on Afghanistan. We returned and scrubbed the [Ukraine] intelligence again.�

They came up with the same conclusion � Russia would invade. But despite the U.S. diplomatic and intelligence-sharing campaign, it remained a difficult sell.

�If you discover the plans of somebody to attack a country and the plans appear to be completely bonkers, the chances are that you are going to react rationally and consider that it�s so bonkers, it�s not going to happen,� said Heisbourg, the French security expert.

�The Europeans overrated their understanding of Putin,� he said. �The Americans, I assume � rather than try to put themselves in Putin�s head, decided they were going to act on the basis of the data and not worry about whether it makes any sense or not.�

Earlier in the article they also address the "never cry WMDs" issue as well:

WaPo posted:

But Paris and Berlin remembered emphatic U.S. claims about intelligence on Iraq. The shadow of that deeply flawed analysis hung over all the discussions before the invasion. Some also felt that Washington, just months earlier, had vastly overestimated the resilience of Afghanistan�s government as the U.S. military was withdrawing. The government had collapsed as soon as the Taliban entered Kabul.

�American intelligence is not considered to be a naturally reliable source,� said Fran�ois Heisbourg, a security expert and longtime adviser to French officials. �It was considered to be prone to political manipulation.�

The Europeans began to settle into camps that would change little for several months.

It's a very good read.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 02:57

JesusSinfulHands: Oct 24, 2007; Sartre and Russell are my heroes

It also features a story about Macron meeting Putin that does not reflect too well on Macron

quote:

A week later, on Feb. 18, Biden called the leaders of several NATO allies and told them the latest U.S. analysis. Biden told reporters in the Roosevelt Room at the White House later that day, �As of this moment, I�m convinced he�s made the decision� to invade. �We have reason to believe that.�

The French, however, continued to seek a way out of the crisis.

On Feb. 20, Macron called Putin and asked him to agree to a meeting in Geneva with Biden. The conversation led the French president to believe that Putin was finally willing to seek a settlement.

�It�s a proposal that merits to be taken into account,� Putin said, according to a recording of the conversation aired months later in a France TV documentary, �A President, Europe and War.�

Macron pressed the Russian leader. �But can we say, today, at the end of this conversation, that we agree in principle? I would like a clear answer from you on that score. I understand your resistance to setting a date. But are you ready to move forward and say, today, �I would like a [face-to-face] meeting with the Americans, then expanded to the Europeans�? Or not?�

Putin didn�t commit and appeared to have more-pressing matters at hand. �To be perfectly frank with you, I wanted to go [play] ice hockey, because right now I�m at the gym. But before starting my workout, let me assure you, I will first call my advisers.�

�Je vous remercie, Monsieur le President,� Putin concluded, thanking him in French.

Macron is heard laughing in delight as he hangs up. The French president and his advisers thought they had a breakthrough. Macron�s diplomatic adviser, Emmanuel Bonne, even danced.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 03:42

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

FishBulbia posted:

Ukrainian refugees who were deported via Russia not permitted to enter Europe, and are considered tainted by Rashism

https://twitter.com/levushkan/status/1559534271588597761

Based on the Facebook post he references, refugees are apparently questioned about the war. Not clear what answers exactly they gave that resulted in them being turned around.

Grigory Mikhnov-Vaitenko on Facebook posted:

Recently some citizens of Ukraine have faced problems when crossing the border of the Republic of Estonia. Border guards ask numerous questions of political nature (e.g. "whom do the residents of Mariupol support?"), and if they receive answers that do not
correspond to the views of particular officers, they deny Ukrainian citizens the right to cross the border.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 03:43

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ? Aug 17, 2022 03:51

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Deteriorata posted:

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.

Is that a camouflaged hearse?

# ? Aug 17, 2022 03:55

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

The Moskva readiness report was leaked and it was done 14 days before the invasion and it makes for interesting reading.

https://twitter.com/GrangerE04117/status/1522643831736332288

# ? Aug 17, 2022 03:59

FishBulbia: Dec 22, 2021

Paladinus posted:

Based on the Facebook post he references, refugees are apparently questioned about the war. Not clear what answers exactly they gave that resulted in them being turned around.

Not exactly sure what Europe's plan here is if the deportation 1) constitute genocide, and 2) the deportees are simultaneously denied entry into the EU for being rashists

# ? Aug 17, 2022 04:02

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Budzilla posted:

The Moskva readiness report was leaked and it was done 14 days before the invasion and it makes for interesting reading.

https://twitter.com/GrangerE04117/status/1522643831736332288

Half the equipment failed when the other half was working.

That's good stuff. They honest to god believed Ukraine would surrender within a few days or hours after the VdV paradropped.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 04:03

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Half the equipment failed when the other half was working.

Or in the case of the fire fighting equipment 22/350 pieces were accounted for.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 04:12

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Well scuttling the ship has a 100% fire reduction success rate so why do you need fire fighting equipment?

And what the hell was the equipment left over? An extinguisher, a broken hose and 20 buckets for a 22 degree list bucket brigade?

# ? Aug 17, 2022 04:16

jonnypeh: Nov 5, 2006

Rigel posted:

In this case, I don't think anyone was thinking the US was intentionally wanting to start some poo poo, just that we had gotten bad and unreliable at this whole intelligence thing, and since we weren't showing the receipts (except maybe quietly to the UK), it was tough for anyone to believe us.

I can't access that WaPo article, but I read about the months and weeks leading up to it from the point of view of the Estonian government. The US diplomats called for secret briefings at first and we didn't have any problems taking seriously the chances of a war happening.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 04:24

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Ukraine is talking big about it's STALKER themed grocery store.

Western propaganda is hiding russias superior STALKER themed city called Mariupol.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Aug 17, 2022 04:53

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Edit' woops put my phone in my pocket and somehow quote posted. Sorry!

# ? Aug 17, 2022 04:53

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

https://mobile.twitter.com/JominiW/status/1559710631774781445

# ? Aug 17, 2022 05:09

FMguru: Sep 10, 2003; peed on;
sexually

Is there a single one of these analyses that doesn't end with a solemn declaration that the next week/month/phase of the war "may prove critical"?

# ? Aug 17, 2022 05:32

TheDeadlyShoe: Feb 14, 2014

FMguru posted:

Is there a single one of these analyses that doesn't end with a solemn declaration that the next week/month/phase of the war "may prove critical"?

The Friedman Unit continues its march of shame.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 06:11

FishBulbia: Dec 22, 2021

The next few weeks may in fact prove critical, or they may not. Either way, I'm right.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 06:13

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

FishBulbia posted:

The next few weeks may in fact prove critical, or they may not. Either way, I'm right.

gently caress off Tom Friedman.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 06:19

Dick Ripple: May 19, 2021

In aggregate, people had the right to question or doubt US intelligence on whether Russia was going to start a full scale invasion of Ukraine. It was even mentioned that many in the Ukrainian military/government would not think the Russians so foolish as to do so with the numbers of troops they had at the border back in February. However, based on the WAPO article there does seem to have been some low key 'get your poo poo ready' talks between the US, Ukraine, and NATO partners.

It is worth mentioning again that the US/NATO has been preparing Ukraine for this since 2014. Here is a good podcast on that from back in January, https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-how-capable-is-ukraines-military/

# ? Aug 17, 2022 06:45

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Rinkles posted:

I can only imagine the shrieking from certain parties if the US preemptively helped arm Ukraine.

That's what happened, though??? US has been arming and training Ukrainian troops since 2014.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 06:51

THE BAR: Oct 20, 2011; You know what might look better on your nose?

the popes toes posted:

And now, something completely different

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1559548034853310470

European IPs have blocked RT; what did I miss?

# ? Aug 17, 2022 07:10

Mulva: Sep 13, 2011; It's about time for my once per decade ban for being a consistently terrible poster.

A man telling us how much he loves the taste of his victory wine. Or possibly Shoigu trying to sell the idea that Western arms have had no impact on Moscow's effectiveness in the war.

It's impossible for me to tell the difference.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 07:16

CeeJee: Dec 4, 2001; Oven Wrangler

Budzilla posted:

Or in the case of the fire fighting equipment 22/350 pieces were accounted for.

The unstable operation of the hydraulic control system for the 'mine-torn slaughterhouse' seems like a problem.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 07:26

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009

Rinkles posted:

Sure, but I meant in direct response to the Russian build up.

The weapons were flowing faster into Ukraine the more imminent the invasion got. I don't really remember anyone shreiking about it except for Russia.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 07:41

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Dick Ripple posted:

In aggregate, people had the right to question or doubt US intelligence on whether Russia was going to start a full scale invasion of Ukraine. It was even mentioned that many in the Ukrainian military/government would not think the Russians so foolish as to do so with the numbers of troops they had at the border back in February. However, based on the WAPO article there does seem to have been some low key 'get your poo poo ready' talks between the US, Ukraine, and NATO partners.

It is worth mentioning again that the US/NATO has been preparing Ukraine for this since 2014. Here is a good podcast on that from back in January, https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-how-capable-is-ukraines-military/

the 'no way they would be that loving stupid' line was specifically from Russians themselves and that was the prevailing view of basically anyone well connected in Russia outside of the room of people who knew the invasion was about to happen

# ? Aug 17, 2022 07:48

Rinkles: Oct 24, 2010; What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

I was responding to this

Jamwad Hilder posted:

He also said "ok, if this is true, we need X Y and Z weapons to defend ourselves" and the US wouldn't give them to them, so what does it matter that they had the information?

I thought the pre-invasion aid wasn't that substantial.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 07:48

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Rinkles posted:

I was responding to this

I thought the pre-invasion aid wasn't that substantial.

it was substantial wrt ukraine being able to wage an insurgency and to some extent a defense in depth against the russians that would be extremely destructive a but it was not really targeted towards ukraine fighting a peer war

Mulva posted:

A man telling us how much he loves the taste of his victory wine. Or possibly Shoigu trying to sell the idea that Western arms have had no impact on Moscow's effectiveness in the war.

It's impossible for me to tell the difference.

definitely is in no way related to Russia currently having their big annual arms sales festival

# ? Aug 17, 2022 07:56

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

Rinkles posted:

I was responding to this

I thought the pre-invasion aid wasn't that substantial.

It wasn't substantial in terms of big ticket items like tanks or long range missiles, but it was enough bread-and-butter squad-level weaponry like Javelins that it made a big difference when the balloon went up.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 07:59

Rappaport: Oct 2, 2013

jonnypeh posted:

I can't access that WaPo article, but I read about the months and weeks leading up to it from the point of view of the Estonian government. The US diplomats called for secret briefings at first and we didn't have any problems taking seriously the chances of a war happening.

The article brings up the division within the European portion of NATO in the months before the war:

WaPo article posted:

In mid-November, Haines used a previously scheduled trip to Brussels to brief a
wider circle of allies: NATO�s North Atlantic Council, the principal decision-making body of the 30-member alliance. Speaking in a large auditorium, she limited her remarks to what the intelligence community believed the evidence showed, and didn�t offer policy recommendations. �A number of members raised questions and were skeptical of the idea that President Putin was seriously preparing for the possibility of a large-scale
invasion,� Haines recalled.

French and German officials couldn�t understand why Putin would try to invade and occupy a large country with just the 80,000 to 90,000 troops believed to be massed on the border. Satellite imagery also showed the troops moving back and forth from the frontier. Others posited that the Russians were performing an exercise, as the Kremlin itself insisted, or playing a shell game designed to conceal a purpose short of invasion. Most were doubtful, and noted that Zelensky seemed to think Russia would never attack with the ambition and force the Americans were forecasting. Didn�t Ukraine understand Russia�s intentions best?

Only the British and the Baltic states were fully on board. At one point, an
official from London stood up and gestured toward Haines. �She�s right,� the
official said. But Paris and Berlin remembered emphatic U.S. claims about intelligence on
Iraq. The shadow of that deeply flawed analysis hung over all the discussions
before the invasion. Some also felt that Washington, just months earlier, had
vastly overestimated the resilience of Afghanistan�s government as the U.S.
military was withdrawing. The government had collapsed as soon as the Taliban
entered Kabul.

�American intelligence is not considered to be a naturally reliable source,� said
Fran�ois Heisbourg, a security expert and longtime adviser to French officials.
�It was considered to be prone to political manipulation.� The Europeans began to settle into camps that would change little for several
months.

�I think there were basically three flavors,� a senior administration official said.
To many in Western Europe, what the Russians were doing was �all coercive
diplomacy, [Putin] was just building up to see what he could get. He�s not going
to invade ... it�s crazy.�

Many of NATO�s newer members in eastern and southeastern Europe thought
Putin �may do something, but it would be limited in scope,� the official said, � ...
another bite at the [Ukrainian] apple,� similar to what happened in 2014.
But Britain and the Baltic states, which were always nervous about Russian
intentions, believed a full-scale invasion was coming.

What the WaPo piece doesn't say, probably because its scope is mostly on the US, is that "Berlin and Paris" had their own reasons to want to believe that Putin wouldn't "break the rules" of the neo-liberal order that's been the lynch-pin of the European post-Cold War order. Surely he wouldn't jeopardize all that trade for a silly and difficult invasion, right guys? And of course in Putin's fever brain the same logic applied in reverse, those homonazis in Europe wouldn't do anything to Russia since the economic ties run both ways. Thankfully the EU actually had something of a spine when push came to shove this time around!

# ? Aug 17, 2022 07:59

Slashrat: Jun 6, 2011; YOSPOS

THE BAR posted:

European IPs have blocked RT; what did I miss?

This happened several months ago. European countries have collectively gotten Twitter (and I presume also Facebook and other social media) to censor anything that is designated a Russian government misinformation outlet.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 08:01

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Estonia refused Ukranian refugees from Mariupol because they stayed in Russia "too long"

https://twitter.com/levushkan/status/1559534271588597761?s=20&t=5LPE93ZtWQDOzJ-Rzi37Hg

# ? Aug 17, 2022 08:07

THE BAR: Oct 20, 2011; You know what might look better on your nose?

Slashrat posted:

This happened several months ago. European countries have collectively gotten Twitter (and I presume also Facebook and other social media) to censor anything that is designated a Russian government misinformation outlet.

I just assumed it would be interesting or important since it got linked here. :shrug:

# ? Aug 17, 2022 08:08

FishBulbia: Dec 22, 2021

Sekenr posted:

Estonia refused Ukranian refugees from Mariupol because they stayed in Russia "too long"

https://twitter.com/levushkan/status/1559534271588597761?s=20&t=5LPE93ZtWQDOzJ-Rzi37Hg

I feel like its worth remembering that the Ukrainian refugees coming to the EU will be from the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine, some of them may have even voted for the party of regions. Doesn't mean they can actually go back to their dead cities. Genocided by the Russians just to be treated like the genocider when they arrive in Europe.

# ? Aug 17, 2022 08:11

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# ? May 29, 2024 12:49

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

the popes toes posted:

And now, something completely different

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1559548034853310470

So you're saying NATO should send more and better weapons? Like thousands of M1s, F-16s and PrSM, right?

Also, at the same time lol:

https://twitter.com/abnyn1/status/1559637088122945537

# ? Aug 17, 2022 08:45

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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