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https://mobile.twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1563094037728337920 Incredible story here https://mobile.twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1563060250269589505 Impressive https://mobile.twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1560350887675133953
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Aug 27, 2022 02:49
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Aug 27, 2022 04:04
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Business Insider cites a NATO report about Russia moving 10 combat aircraft out of a Crimean airbase back to ones inside Russia. https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...urce=reddit.com
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Aug 27, 2022 04:47
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Charlz Guybon posted:Incredible story here It's bonkers how incompetent the GRU can be, such as forging a certificate of baptism in a parish that hadn't been founded at the claimed time.
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Aug 27, 2022 08:04
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Nenonen posted:It's bonkers how incompetent the GRU can be, such as forging a certificate of baptism in a parish that hadn't been founded at the claimed time. Well you say that but their plant wasn’t detected by the counter espionage apparatus of the target counties so there’s maybe plenty of incompetence to go round. Edit: that bellingcat reporter is one brave dude considering how the Russians deal with ‘problems’. Rapulum_Dei fucked around with this message at 08:42 on Aug 27, 2022 |
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Aug 27, 2022 08:31
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Rapulum_Dei posted:Well you say that but their plant wasn’t detected by the counter espionage apparatus of the target counties so there’s maybe plenty of incompetence to go round. "that bellingcat reporter" is Brown Moses, he posts in this thread all the time.
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Aug 27, 2022 09:41
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Fuschia tude posted:"that bellingcat reporter" is Brown Moses, he posts in this thread all the time. Nah this is a Grozev piece, BM is just posting it on his twitter.
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Aug 27, 2022 09:55
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ChrisO have done two good threads based on another Russian soldier's account of the beginning of this war. It's based on an interview done by Istories which can be seen here in russian https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rudUGZxIU6E but with english sub (I haven't watched it, just read the threads) first part with threadreader here https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1562874112707801088.html https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1562874112707801088 Second part https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1563038520821702656.html https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1563038520821702656 and Istory article on it in Russian https://storage.googleapis.com/istories/reportages/2022/08/19/komandovaniyu-prosto-naprosto-nasrat-na-vsekh-voennosluzhashchikh/index.html
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Aug 27, 2022 11:18
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I wonder if the Western MIC is capable of allowing itself to copy cat the Russian industrial system to produce weapon systems and munitions for cheap, at scale and with simpler materials. I believe I saw that Russians use wax while the United States uses some compound composed of rarer ingredients, as an example of a potential simplification, and I'd love to see the Western MIC's volume of production compared to Russia's. I'll probably get drone striked for writing that sentence down and being dumb enough to post it online. These advanced systems are genuinely amazing but the level of complication and globalization of their supply chains makes these systems come off as Bronze Age chariots right before the decline. This war is a wake up call to the industrial side of war and if Russia is prepared to engage Ukraine for up to 10 years that is the time frame the West has to invigorate itself. Maybe it's shorter, maybe it ends in a Russian defeat, but either way the old order is not going to come back. There's a much broader topic to discuss about Russia decoupling itself from the West and funneling its resources into China, the famous 'World Island', but that is another item that would take place on a decadal scale. I believe it is happening though and that we are in the earliest stage of the event. As Macron said, 'The Age of Abundance' has come to an end and the time of adaptation has arrived.
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Aug 27, 2022 11:37
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If anything this war has shown the limits of brute forcing victory through sheer scale, as just a seemingly laughably small number of Western systems has been enough to fight an army dumping 80 years of stockpiles meant to fight the whole capitalist world to a standstill. Obviously not every country would be capable of developing, purchasing, or fielding such systems, but it's now clear that those that can are light years ahead of their adversaries relying on "dumb" cold war arsenals. To the point that they aren't really playing in the same league anymore. This probably should have been clear after the gulf war already, but back then it was possible to rationalize the disparity by portraying Iraq as a decaying regime armed with second rate weapon models. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 11:51 on Aug 27, 2022 |
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Aug 27, 2022 11:44
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Also Russia is in no position to "funnel its resources into China", if there's going to be a growing interdependence, it's going to proceed on China's terms, with Russia as a satellite. However China has enough problems as is without trying herself to Russia atm.
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Aug 27, 2022 11:50
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kemikalkadet posted:Nah this is a Grozev piece, BM is just posting it on his twitter. I would highly doubt the GRU is competent enough to tell the difference.
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Aug 27, 2022 11:53
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Lord Stimperor posted:And to non-speakers, Portugese resembles Russian phonetically, and so maybe the accent might fit as well. Maybe Peru is similar. This is the dumbest post I've seen in a long time. I've heard people speak Portuguese, and Russian, and Portuguese does not sound "Russian" at all, what the hell?  Edit: And as the Peruvian language is Spanish, that's even weirder. There's no dialect that could make Russian and Spanish sound alike. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 27, 2022 13:46
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Libluini posted:This is the dumbest post I've seen in a long time. I've heard people speak Portuguese, and Russian, and Portuguese does not sound "Russian" at all, what the hell? He's not wrong https://www.portuguesepedia.com/why-portuguese-sounds-russian/ I'm Portuguese and I've been told my accent when speaking other languages is close to Russian. Obviously if you know either Russian or Portuguese you're not gonna be fooled but there are similarities (sorry for weird derail)
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Aug 27, 2022 13:56
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theghostpt posted:He's not wrong Huh. That sounds closer then I thought. I guess if someone has never heard both Russians and Portuguese talking before it's indeed easy to confuse the two. Thanks for the link! I'll rescind my former comment.
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Aug 27, 2022 14:08
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steinrokkan posted:If anything this war has shown the limits of brute forcing victory through sheer scale, as just a seemingly laughably small number of Western systems has been enough to fight an army dumping 80 years of stockpiles meant to fight the whole capitalist world to a standstill. Also... the US has shitloads of the fancy high-tech stuff. Like over 500 HIMARS launchers, thousands of unused tanks, F-16s, etc. So it's not even close to being an issue. Seems to be a political choice not to supply more. I never thought Portugese speaking English sound like they have a russian accent, nor did spoken Portuguese sound like russian. Maybe this only works on someone with no familiarity with either language only.
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Aug 27, 2022 14:52
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They can't train spies to speak without an accent anymore, so their only hope is nobody notices. Colonel Isaev would be ashamed.
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Aug 27, 2022 14:59
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https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1563498062764396544
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Aug 27, 2022 15:02
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Isn't the AK-12 a cheaply made piece of poo poo? If I was a Russian soldier I'd probably prefer a vintage cold war AK.
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Aug 27, 2022 15:08
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Yeah AK-12 has been a bad joke
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Aug 27, 2022 15:08
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thekeeshman posted:Isn't the AK-12 a cheaply made piece of poo poo? If I was a Russian soldier I'd probably prefer a vintage cold war AK. Perhaps, I’m no gun buff, but the inside thread I found interesting enough, more from heavy vehicles/movements perspective. Going to be quite the meme if they roll out pensioners’ corps on T-90Ms.
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Aug 27, 2022 15:11
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Dandywalken posted:Yeah AK-12 has been a bad joke Designed by committee, who then pocketed the allocated funds and cobbled together leftovers to make a "modern weapon". 
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Aug 27, 2022 15:17
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thekeeshman posted:Isn't the AK-12 a cheaply made piece of poo poo? If I was a Russian soldier I'd probably prefer a vintage cold war AK. Just Another Lurker posted:Designed by committee, who then pocketed the allocated funds and cobbled together leftovers to make a "modern weapon". It's an AK with modern mounting rails instead of antiquated Kobra side rails and a adjustable collapsing folding stock, but yeah, the 2012 prototype version was lots more ergonomic and tried to fix much of the AKs persistent flaws. All we're really left with is something that could be replicated by Zenit aftermarket poo poo.  But Russia's gotta Russia I guess.
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Aug 27, 2022 15:26
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thekeeshman posted:Isn't the AK-12 a cheaply made piece of poo poo? If I was a Russian soldier I'd probably prefer a vintage cold war AK. A new AK-12 isn't that bad. They just don't last being used the way the older rifles do. Mostly because they are ill-designed so that you can't reach all the parts of the gas system to properly clean them, and Russians use corrosive ammo.
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Aug 27, 2022 16:02
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steinrokkan posted:This probably should have been clear after the gulf war already, but back then it was possible to rationalize the disparity by portraying Iraq as a decaying regime armed with second rate weapon models. Based on what I've read and discussions about 20 years ago, the professionals at higher ranks knew. The simulations even then were sophisticated and accurate for conventional warfare. It wasn't widely known, though. For example, even in the late 90s the US Army's official stance was that a 25mm autocannon could do nothing against a tank, and indeed the simulators even replicated this avowed poor performance. My platoon sergeant in 2003 had been a Bradley gunner in 1991, though, so even he knew it was bullshit, amd that NATO 25mm depleted uranium rounds would turn even modernized T-72s into Swiss cheese.
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Aug 27, 2022 16:56
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1563541512352595971 https://wartranslated.com/igor-girking-returns-to-roast-shoygu-in-his-latest-long-telegram-post/
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Aug 27, 2022 17:49
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It's culture-posting time: https://mobile.twitter.com/DrAlexisWolf/status/1563462156674551808
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Aug 27, 2022 17:56
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https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1563416712707710976 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 27, 2022 18:30
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Need help with thread titles?
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Aug 27, 2022 18:47
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Need help with thread titles? Based on their thread post history this is some sort of "actually it's bad to go against Russia murdering a country, see?" I Told You So moment. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 27, 2022 18:51
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Libluini posted:Huh. That sounds closer then I thought. I guess if someone has never heard both Russians and Portuguese talking before it's indeed easy to confuse the two. Thanks for the link! That link is to European Portuguese. Brazilian Portuguese sounds much different, but it's much more varied. There is one dialect/variant of Brazilian PT that sounds a bit more like EU PT, called the carioca accent which is spoken primarily in Rio de Janeiro. The thing about Brazil is that there are many accents all mixed together, which can be a blessing while learning because people will assume you're from another part of the country and not a gringo if you're good enough. Anyway, pardon the continued derail.
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Aug 27, 2022 18:53
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Alamani57 posted:I wonder if the Western MIC is capable of allowing itself to copy cat the Russian industrial system to produce weapon systems and munitions for cheap, at scale and with simpler materials. I believe I saw that Russians use wax while the United States uses some compound composed of rarer ingredients, as an example of a potential simplification, and I'd love to see the Western MIC's volume of production compared to Russia's. I'll probably get drone striked for writing that sentence down and being dumb enough to post it online. These advanced systems are genuinely amazing but the level of complication and globalization of their supply chains makes these systems come off as Bronze Age chariots right before the decline. This war is a wake up call to the industrial side of war and if Russia is prepared to engage Ukraine for up to 10 years that is the time frame the West has to invigorate itself. Maybe it's shorter, maybe it ends in a Russian defeat, but either way the old order is not going to come back. Building lots of stuff on the cheap with lovely materials is a large part of why Russia has gone from "Second best military in the world" to "Second best military in Ukraine", because it turns out all those expensive geegaws and nice materials make a very important difference. And as stated, we are not hurting for high-tech weapons. We have a ton in storage just waiting to be used.
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Aug 27, 2022 18:53
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Just small things for things for happy thoughts: My local store suddenly got Obolon beer back in stock. They're based in northern Kyiv and were shut down during the offensive. Also goes to show exports from the area are improving slowly.
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Aug 27, 2022 19:31
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This one is somewhat hyperbolic. The price of energy forwards are determined to a large extent by risk. That price is not the expected price of energy one year in the future - it is the premium paid to be *sure* that you can get energy at a certain price. Grossly simplified: It is an insurance. And it is not just a speculative product - it is an actual obligation to deliver energy in the future. Taking on that obligation is very risky, and thus the prices skyrocket. Is there a risk of high energy prices and energy shortages? Yes. Are energy prices expected to look like that hockey stick? No. But it does show that energy markets have a very high level of anxiety right now, and that in itself will make prices increase. But it will also create very strong incentives to hoard and stockpile sources of energy. Which in itself can cause premature shortages and price hikes. Wood fuel is currently being hoarded and has a price not at all in line with the current, or even projected costs of energy. Markets are amplifying the instability by reacting very strongly to it. I expect to see European governments and the EU ramp up regulation of the energy markets and protectionism (in the case of national governments). I think it is more likely we'll see an energy-based trade war between European nations this winter than see energy markets with freely traded energy at prices lifting off towards the moon. This is going to be another test of European solidarity and unity. If the EU can reach a compromise on energy allocation and market controls, it will strengthen the EU greatly. If not, it will slow down EU integration and cooperation - perhaps even reverse it in some areas. Edit: Also note that forwards are generally settled at the value/maturity date, not when entering the contract. So even if you have to put up some collateral - you don't have to pay for that energy forward right now. So this is not even similar to a futures contract. Especially when considering energy companies often backed by a government or regional authority. So this is the price if you want to make a deal to trade *in the future* - you're not even trading an obligation and paying in advance. It is really quite expected that the these energy contracts are going to skyrocket in price - and should not be taken a sure indicator of an apocalyptic energy crisis. But it is a good indicator to watch out for in regards to the expectations of possible energy supply problems. PederP fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Aug 27, 2022 |
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Aug 27, 2022 19:35
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1563253459423350785 https://wartranslated.com/lpr-volunteer-murz-on-the-6-month-results-of-the-smo-we-are-in-the-as/ Paint's a fairly grim picture, but Murz still believe general mobilization could solve it. The post is both about the Russian federation's army and the so called republics. While not as critical of the Russian leadership as Girkin's earlier post, it was apparently later deleted. quote:...The reality is that in the spring the Russian Federation killed all those forces with which were able to carry out large-scale encirclement operations. No encirclement operations, no decisive turning point in the course of war. I already wrote about it. The enemy will slowly retreat in those places where they will be pressed by the artillery powerfully enough, but they will retreat to prepared positions occupied by the reserves deployed. To “grind” their cheap infantry in this way without having enough of our own proper infantry can take a very long time and not bring much success... https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1563600279542857728
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Aug 27, 2022 21:13
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Libluini posted:This is the dumbest post I've seen in a long time. The underlying issue is addressed elsewhere, so: come on man, you didnt have to be like that. If a poster is being unclear, say that. Don't treat them as punching bags. Lord Stimperor fucked around with this message at 22:21 on Aug 27, 2022 |
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Aug 27, 2022 22:17
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Was plate armor in the 20th century useful for increasing the efficacy of troopers? I remember seeing pictures of certain units in various amounts of plate armor such as Italian Ardito in WW1 and the WW2 Russian steel Cuirass, but I can't imagine that armor would be good at doing anything except maybe deflecting shrapnel and causing medium range rifle rounds to become a shot gun due to spalling. I imagine even if it was useful it would be prohibitively expensive to equip entire armies with it.
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Aug 27, 2022 22:52
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Defenestrategy posted:Was plate armor in the 20th century useful for increasing the efficacy of troopers? I remember seeing pictures of certain units in various amounts of plate armor such as Italian Ardito in WW1 and the WW2 Russian steel Cuirass, but I can't imagine that armor would be good at doing anything except maybe deflecting shrapnel and causing medium range rifle rounds to become a shot gun due to spalling. I imagine even if it was useful it would be prohibitively expensive to equip entire armies with it. In WW1 trench warfare basically everyone did limited issue of "sniper plates" which were thick enough to stop hits from full-powered rifle rounds. (And above, as their issuance lead to the development of AP rounds, which then lead to even thicker plates.) But we are not talking about armor you wear here, more like a movable barricade.
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Aug 27, 2022 23:04
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Libluini posted:This is the dumbest post I've seen in a long time. I've heard people speak Portuguese, and Russian, and Portuguese does not sound "Russian" at all, what the hell? I feel distinctly qualified to comment on this as a native russian speaker living in Portugal, they both sound the same at a distance due to the hushing sounds and the barely open mouth way of speaking. Heard the same comments from Polish kids coming here the first time: "everyone sounds like they're speaking polish". This got fairly confusing after the Ukrainian refugees started appearing in the cities since as you got closer the language would become clearly Portuguese and now more and more often in the street I come closer and the people will actually be Ukrainians speaking Russian even in non-touristic places. Brazilian Portuguese is pretty different phonetically though and sounds mostly like the other romance languages Somaen fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Aug 27, 2022 |
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Aug 27, 2022 23:12
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Defenestrategy posted:Was plate armor in the 20th century useful for increasing the efficacy of troopers? I remember seeing pictures of certain units in various amounts of plate armor such as Italian Ardito in WW1 and the WW2 Russian steel Cuirass, but I can't imagine that armor would be good at doing anything except maybe deflecting shrapnel and causing medium range rifle rounds to become a shot gun due to spalling. I imagine even if it was useful it would be prohibitively expensive to equip entire armies with it. WW1 is different because you they were using rifles at range a lot of the time so they could have reduced velocity that the plate could save you. Although, I've heard a lot of the plates weren't so much for rifles but shrapnel. In WW2, the SN series were mostly for street combat and urban assault, where most of the weapons were pistols or submachine guns, the "steel bib" would only work against rifles if they hit at an oblique angle or at a distance. I don't think the major issue with steel armor was cost, if needed they could be mass-produced fairly easily. The main issue why steel armor didn't proliferate was it was heavy (it weighed about as much as a Mosin rifle) and hard to maneuver in. Soldiers wearing steel body armor had to be in top physical shape to be able to run around wearing it.
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Aug 27, 2022 23:20
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