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surf rock posted:May we never forget: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL-rdzMo1MU Their naval infantry formations have performed consistently well, though they may have been attrited during fighting in Mariupol and near Kherson. The best VDV units seem to be on the level of "average Western infantry formation that hasn't seen actual combat yet".
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Sep 15, 2022 02:32
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FishBulbia posted:Sure, I'll raise the alarm when I'm worried about Ukraine doing genocide in Belgorod too You know, if Ukraine under its current government had done an invasion and genocide of ethnic Russians a couple decades ago as part of a parade of mutual genocies and spent the years since that war being tremendous dicks to Russia almost trying to provoke the next war, then that might be a fair comparison. But they didn't, so it isn't, and I think you know that. There's really not many parallels to draw there aside from "they're fighting". Warbadger fucked around with this message at 02:44 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 02:36
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surf rock posted:Something I've been wondering: has any portion of the Russian military performed well? Wagner PMC's core troops are supposedly very competent and well equipped compared to the regular army and have been credited with what progress Russia did make in Donbass over the summer. (That could just be marketing though since Wagner is a export product)
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Sep 15, 2022 02:42
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Warbadger posted:You know, if Ukraine under its current government had done an invasion and genocide of ethnic Russians a couple decades ago as part of a parade of mutual genocies and spent the years since that war being tremendous dicks to Russia almost trying to provoke the next war, then that might be a fair comparison. But they didn't, so it isn't, and I think you know that. There's really not many parallels to draw there aside from "they're fighting". I don't recall Armenia doing that since 2018, when the government came to power. I don't think they did any "provocation" except continuing to breath either. The only place the comparison is invalid is that Azerbaijan is much, much more likely to succeed than Russia.
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Sep 15, 2022 02:49
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FishBulbia posted:I don't recall Armenia doing that since 2018, when the government came to power. I don't think they did any "provocation" except continuing to breath either. The only place the comparison is invalid is that Azerbaijan is much, much more likely to succeed than Russia. Perhaps you should be more clear about the parallel you are trying to draw between these two conflicts. It feels like you’re trying for a rhetorical slam dunk on (_________), and it isn’t super clear.
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Sep 15, 2022 02:59
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Flavahbeast posted:Wagner PMC's core troops are supposedly very competent and well equipped compared to the regular army and have been credited with what progress Russia did make in Donbass over the summer. (That could just be marketing though since Wagner is a export product) Wagner is also upto 10x more effective than the regulars at civilian murder --- murdering entire village populations rather than 10%!
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Sep 15, 2022 03:03
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FishBulbia posted:I don't recall Armenia doing that since 2018, when the government came to power. I don't think they did any "provocation" except continuing to breath either. The only place the comparison is invalid is that Azerbaijan is much, much more likely to succeed than Russia. I'm assuming you haven't really payed much attention to what happened in 2018 if you think it's a wholly new government, much less one with notably divergent goals when it comes to NK. The Republicans (pro-Russian fascists) who had dominated the government got almost entirely kicked out, but this wasn't some reformation of the government/military/etc. as a whole. Pashinyan's stated views on NK got considerably more hardline before his election - from "yeah, we should negotiate and cede some parts to end the conflict, the guys who are pushing this conflict are loving us all" to "NK all belongs to us, should be a part of Armenia, there's nothing to give". Likely out of political necessity. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 03:17 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 03:04
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Crazy Joe Wilson posted:I'm curious if Armenia used the last two years to modernize their military/buy drones to keep up with the Azeri military. If they haven't, then any resurgence in conflict is not going to go well for them. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan has a lot more money for that sort of stuff and more willing sellers (Turkey, Israel). Armenia, as usual, has few friends.
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Sep 15, 2022 03:05
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Pook Good Mook posted:They didn't expect Ukraine to be as organized or motivated to fight back. They expected this to be similar to America's invasion of Iraq in 2003, a standing army that gets overwhelmed. Maybe more like Prague '68. The US had almost 600k troops for Iraq and had spent a couple of years degrading IraqI air defenses and airforce. If the Russian government thought they could replicate the invasion of Iraq without a preliminary air campaign and 1/3 the ground forces they would have to be high or mentally ill.
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Sep 15, 2022 03:16
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Since Ukraine pushed through the lines in Kharkiv, the undertones the war and the politics surrounding it has changed. It's now obvious to the entire world that Russia is in poo poo up to its eyeballs. Ukraine retaking everything to the 2014 borders seems inevitable, and returning to the 1991 borders seems much more realistic than before. The attritional phrase of the war has paused, and Ukraine has the initiative, momentum and the upper-hand. The war crimes cannot be undone, and the insane and senseless bloodshed will unfortunately continue, but at least the colonial power is being expelled. There have been numerous discussions about what Ukraine will look like after the war, and I think we now have a clearer idea about how the borders will look. However, where it will be politically and economically are a lot harder to guess, and I wanted to touch on those. First, I would like to make the prediction that after the war, Ukraine will experience healthy economic growth on a higher trajectory than before (perhaps after a slump), and also be more or less politically stable, and less corrupt than before. Why? For all three, Ukraine has a lot of trends and forces working in its favor. Economics and infrastructure are deeply tied. Obviously, the infrastructure of Ukraine has been flatted, and Russia continues to senselessly bomb. The current estimates of how much money it would cost to rebuild Ukraine is around $349 billion euros. Construction of infrastructure is an equation of capital, labor and politics. It requires capital and labor to build and maintain infrastructure. The political atmosphere must also allow for it, by funding it (through bonds, taxes, foreign investment, etc) and not losing that funding to corruption. I see the priority of any elected post-war government being reconstruction of the country, and returning to a norm. Political opposition (whoever they may be) will probably say that reconstruction is going poorly, and would be better under them. So already, politics are well aligned for Ukraine to rebuild swiftly. There is little option for Ukraine after the war except for a massive boom in construction, so much so that labor will likely be the choking point (good for wages). Many countries have already promised to 'rebuild' different parts of Ukraine after the war. How this will actually look is not clear, but one thing is for sure, capital will be flowing into the country like never before, even if many countries efforts are anemic. (take note, capital can be raw cash, but it can also be construction equipment, materials, etc). It may take a very long time for the infrastructure to come back to where it was before the war, but I have no doubt that Ukraine's infrastructure begin to be modernized as soon as the war is over. Ukraine will also likely get a massive growth in 'social capital' (IE, skilled labor and innovators).' Just like in the US after World War 2, lots of determined, young people are will be returning to a peacetime economy with tons of new skills, and I suspect that many of the donor countries will take a hand in further training a skilled labor force. Just like many of the western countries trained people on how to use mortars, they could release stress on existing Ukrainian institutions by training them on how to build a bridge. Lots of refugees will also likely be sending remittances or returning to Ukraine as well. Integration into the EU depends on the country being politically stable and reducing corruption, so hopefully that works out. Does any of this sound right, or do I just sound like a ranting goober? Chill Monster fucked around with this message at 03:30 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 03:22
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Owling Howl posted:Maybe more like Prague '68. The US had almost 600k troops for Iraq and had spent a couple of years degrading IraqI air defenses and airforce. If the Russian government thought they could replicate the invasion of Iraq without a preliminary air campaign and 1/3 the ground forces they would have to be high or mentally ill. The Russian Government is a pack of narcissists with nuclear weapons who view themselves as the legitimate successor to the Roman Empire and feel they are bound for glory.
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Sep 15, 2022 03:23
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Chill Monster posted:Ukraine retaking everything to the 2014 borders seems inevitable, and returning to the 1991 borders seems much more realistic than before. The attritional phrase of the war has paused, and Ukraine has the initiative, momentum and the upper-hand. The low-hanging fruit seems to have been plucked already. No serious Ukrainian gains in the past 48 hours and no gains outside the Izyium sector where the Russians have simply fled back to the border and across the Oskil. Unsure how anyone can say that the Ukrainians for sure has another push in it of anywhere close to that magnitude. Chill Monster posted:Does any of this sound right, or do I just sound like a ranting goober? I think you are a tad excited and you should go to sleep and reevaluate what you wrote.
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Sep 15, 2022 04:17
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MikeC posted:The low-hanging fruit seems to have been plucked already. No serious Ukrainian gains in the past 48 hours and no gains outside the Izyium sector where the Russians have simply fled back to the border and across the Oskil. Unsure how anyone can say that the Ukrainians for sure has another push in it of anywhere close to that magnitude.
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Sep 15, 2022 04:21
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Chill Monster posted:Does any of this sound right, or do I just sound like a ranting goober? I'm not an expert by any means, but this all feels highly optimistic and contingent on foreign aid. I'm not saying that Ukraine won't recover after the war, but calling what will happen next a "boom" seems to be coming from a very happy place. Fundamentally Ukrainian infrastructure just got the ever-loving poo poo bombed out of it along with massive disruptions to existing supply chains and jobs from the movement of refugees alone, and even if the West is willing to cough up the funds for rebuilding in full (which I hope they do), it will take time to get it all up to speed and until that happens Ukraine's economy and tax base is going to be in pretty poor shape compared to what it was pre-war. The analogy of the US after WW2 and their servicemen feels...very odd as well. Like, part of the big reason the US made out after WW2 was because it was the only major industrial nation that hadn't gotten the ever-loving poo poo bombed out of it. I'm not sure that the skills of servicemen made that much of a difference to the economy (though I'd be pleased to hear studies demonstrating otherwise), and in any event which skills exactly? A lot of military skills are largely useful for the military and has trouble transferring - even more technical positions can be pretty specialized for the specific military-grade hardware they're using, especially in this day and age. The idea that remittances are a boon to the Ukrainian economy is weird, too - like, it'll help, but if there wasn't a war those refugees will either have been living aboard and sending remittances already, or else working and contributing within the Ukrainian economy. I don't see how it's a net positive, and if anything it feels like a net negative given that there's, well, fewer Ukrainians contributing to the Ukrainian economy thanks to the war. Any way you slice it, the Ukrainian economy has been massively disrupted and its tax base suffered a serious body blow that will take time to recover at a point when the need for funds to do anything is greater than ever - and that kind of economic instability is the sort of thing that feeds into political instability. Even if foreign aid can make up the difference, that's always going to be a bit unreliable and there'll always be a concern about when and if major donors are going to turn off the tap, not to mention that the politics of accepting large amounts of foreign aid can be somewhat fraught - especially if people see the hand of foreign economic domination approaching. Again, I'm not saying it won't or can't recover, but it seems to me like "building back to where it was prewar" is already going to be a major accomplishment, nevermind booming. I'm not actually an economist myself, though, so I'd be interesting to see what others have to say about this. Also the idea that political parties and the opposition will be single-mindedly dedicated to improving the situation and wouldn't, for instance, engage in questionably useful publicity stunts or questionably true accusations of incompetence and/or corruption to slander the party in power is pretty hilarious. Hell, for that matter even within a given political party there's going to be infighting because when reconstruction begins, the gigantic question hanging over everyone's head is going to be "Who gets the aid first, and who gets more of it?" Regional representatives are going to be tearing each other apart trying to direct rebuilding funds and projects to their constituents, and those who fail to do so are going to have a real tough time in elections, even if there's a good reason for it. I'll also add too that while Ukraine has the upper hand now, it's unlikely they can push forever and will probably need a breather. Even if the Russians are completely incompetent advancing into them isn't going to be free, and eventually Ukraine will need to regroup and reorganize for further assaults, which in turn gives the Russians time to do the same. It's a very good sign and great progress by the Ukrainians but they can't get complacent about inevitable victory just yet, and neither can we.
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Sep 15, 2022 04:25
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There is a factor coming into play that may give Ukraine a ton of leverage (or at least continued tactical good fortune)--the russosphere collapsing with all the border conflicts erupting at once. Putin may have to decide what he wants to keep more--bits of Ukraine or existent vassal states. I don't know what that calculus would look like, especially with the Ukrainian advances and previous lack of russian gains.
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Sep 15, 2022 04:31
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MikeC posted:The low-hanging fruit seems to have been plucked already. No serious Ukrainian gains in the past 48 hours and no gains outside the Izyium sector where the Russians have simply fled back to the border and across the Oskil. Unsure how anyone can say that the Ukrainians for sure has another push in it of anywhere close to that magnitude. There's a limit to how.much territory Ukraine can reclaim in one push without resting and regrouping first. What there doesn't seem to be is a limit to Russias ability to collapse.
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Sep 15, 2022 04:32
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Sep 15, 2022 04:35
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There is no reason for Ukraine to rush. It can rest and rotate troops and wait for Russia to mess up supplies even more. Every day that passes is also more pressure on Russia with sanctions in place. The only time-limiting factor I can see in the short term is winter coming up and potentially blocking any real offensive capability for both sides. Whatever Ukraine can get before November might be it until spring. Although it's quite possible that Russia does not send any winter equipment at all and their troops simply surrender before freezing.
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Sep 15, 2022 04:39
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Rad Russian posted:There is no reason for Ukraine to rush. It can rest and rotate troops and wait for Russia to mess up supplies even more. Every day that passes is also more pressure on Russia with sanctions in place. The other issue is midterms in the US may block further funding, the GOP seems to be straying back into the Putin camp.
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Sep 15, 2022 04:53
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Cicero posted:It seems like the problems Russia has are structural, and probably only going to keep getting worse. Ukraine tricking Russia this hard may be a one-off, but the other problems Russia has will remain. Ya basically Ukraine isn't willing to negotiate the peace Russia wants and Russia isn't able to win the war it started. I remember writing nearly this exact comment in March. Once Ukraine beat back the initial offensive, Russia has no endgame it's capable or willing to obtain. I don't know how this war ends absent a collapse of the Russian government, either from an internal revolution or the public fallout from a complete defeat.
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Sep 15, 2022 04:56
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:What there doesn't seem to be is a limit to Russias ability to collapse. The morale of the Russian troops has by most accounts for been widely in the toilet since day one. Seeing two large offensive by the enemy be so successful and take so much land so quickly, I can't imagine there would be many russian troops that weren't very nervous at the moment at what exactly coming next. cinci zoo sniper posted:Russian language news generally speaking are a fairly homogeneous blob.... Ah cheers for this info on Russian news/language. Very interesting!
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Sep 15, 2022 05:01
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slurm posted:The other issue is midterms in the US may block further funding, the GOP seems to be straying back into the Putin camp. The lend-lease act kicks in Oct 1, before the elections,so that money is safe. No bill to defund it will survive the senate and President. The stream of materiel will be unabated.
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Sep 15, 2022 05:16
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dr_rat posted:The morale of the Russian troops has by most accounts for been widely in the toilet since day one. Seeing two large offensive by the enemy be so successful and take so much land so quickly, I can't imagine there would be many russian troops that weren't very nervous at the moment at what exactly coming next. That does kinda depend on how many of them have any idea what's actually happening on a wider level, though. Accounts from earlier Russian soldiers (like the guy described here, his wartime experiences are like part 4 or something of the series) suggests that grunts tossed into battle are barely informed where they even are or what's happening just around them, let alone that an entire front somewhere else is collapsing. Apparently the guy in the thread was watching Ukrainian news on captured TV sets to get a basic idea of what was going on, and a lot of the guys around him didn't bother to check. I imagine Russian officers would probably like to keep this particular news from spreading more than they have to. ninjaedit: On the other hand, Russian troops consistently demonstrate poor morale after they personally have repeatedly been through the poo poo, and by all accounts even without fighting just being in Ukraine is going through the poo poo, it's just that chain routing might be a bit more difficult.
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Sep 15, 2022 05:17
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Cicero posted:It seems like the problems Russia has are structural, and probably only going to keep getting worse. Ukraine tricking Russia this hard may be a one-off, but the other problems Russia has will remain. It may be a one-off, it may not. Do you know or have information to either effect? No? Then how do you evaluate this poster's claim that the "attritional phase has ended"? I am evaluating it on the basis the reporting shows the Ukrainians accurately targetted a section of the front manned by 3rd rate conscripts, threw its best equipped and best-trained regulars at it, and scored a big win and momentum has since petered out. Meanwhile, despite the "attritional phase" being over, the Ukrainians are going to enter their 3rd week in the Kherson grind and have little to show for it except a lot of stories of tough slogging and heavy casualties. If you have numbers to show the Russian collapse is imminent in Kherson feel free to share. Hieronymous Alloy posted:There's a limit to how.much territory Ukraine can reclaim in one push without resting and regrouping first. The way you say, it is amazing they haven't collapsed back to Moscow by now. I swear Russian mil bloggers on twitter have more depth of discussion than the mouth-frothing cheerleading that goes on here at times. Yes, big win for Ukraine. Everyone is happy. Simmer down and when a poster is asking if he is off his meds, feel free to serve him a legitimate dose of reality and tell him no one not working in a military setting with access to classified information can declare with any degree of certainty whether the "attritional phase" has or has not ended. Given how painstakingly this op was planned as per the NYT piece and how much gear they demanded before smashing breakaway republic conscripts in poorly manned positions, it is unlikely the Ukrainians are going to start some general offensive and roll through the entire country in short order. Rad Russian posted:There is no reason for Ukraine to rush. It can rest and rotate troops and wait for Russia to mess up supplies even more. Every day that passes is also more pressure on Russia with sanctions in place. Nail on the head. The big thing for the Ukrainians is not to risk suffering setbacks by rushing the timetable beyond their means. As I speculated earlier at the start of this whole thing, the entire point of the recent offensive was to keep European morale up and show them there was a light at the end of the tunnel. Mission accomplished. If you Kherson can be cleared out before year's end, so much the better. But no need to be reckless and piss away resources and garner negative headlines. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) MikeC fucked around with this message at 05:40 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 05:34
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OAquinas posted:There is a factor coming into play that may give Ukraine a ton of leverage (or at least continued tactical good fortune)--the russosphere collapsing with all the border conflicts erupting at once. Putin may have to decide what he wants to keep more--bits of Ukraine or existent vassal states. Kazakhstan is clearly loving off, Kyrgizia and Uzbekistan are shelling each other with mortars. Everyone refused to help Armenia. Master strategist Putin aimed to dismantle NATO, instead ODKB is in it's dying breaths. I am honestly impressed with Tokayev. Used the alliance who actually deployed troops to win his power, overthrow Nazarbayev, stonecold bitchslapped Putin over Ukraine situation in loving St. Petersburg, heart of their empire. Had a 3 day meeting with Xi and now there are rumors of him leaving ODKB, loving masterstroke.
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Sep 15, 2022 07:30
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The complete rout we've seen might be a one-off, but have you actually checked on the bloggers that aren't just regurgitating Kremlin's line? Girkin's been a freaking out about how hosed everything is and that nothing shot of full mobilization is going to change it. They have no gear and are out of people to conscript in the republics. Russia's recruiting prisoners. Unless he's a long-term psyops to lull everyone into a false sense of security, this seems plausible given what we've seen over there. E: just to be clear, you should never underestimate the enemy and make military plans based on that, this is how russia got into this situation in the first place. cinci zoo sniper posted:Imagine being that driver, of all people.  for Western leftists. Ukraine isn't some sort of socialist worker's paradise, becoming "neoliberal shithole" like Germany would be a massive improvement. Maybe someone is reading on paper how great the free education and healthcare is, but in reality you have to pay for everything. My grandfather's friend literally just broke a leg and they asked for $2k to perform the necessary operation. Worker protection (and fire/health safety etc) enforcement is significantly undermined by massive corruption, and being concerned about ~western capital~ while a big chunk of the country is ran by oligarchs seems somewhat pointless.
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Sep 15, 2022 07:31
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Been hearing that the dam breaking has caused serious issues for Ukrainian troops who are stranded in that bulge on the Kherson line, does anyone have any further analysis/can point me in the right direction for an answer?
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Sep 15, 2022 07:39
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An essay on 13th Sep: https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/13/wrong-way-to-view-xi-putin-meeting-pub-87908 quote:For this reason, it seems more likely that Xi will continue what I have called the “Beijing straddle.” On the one hand, China will provide diplomatic support for Russia and broad commitments to a Beijing-Moscow entente whose principal rationale and focus is to counterbalance Washington and backfoot the favored global institutions and policy preferences of the transatlantic West and Japan. On the other, China will continue de facto compliance with Western sanctions to avoid painting a target on its own back, and it will deploy mealy-mouthed language about “peace” and “stability” aimed at placating the Central Asian nations and partners in the Global South that are uneasy about Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Thus: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1570034869761179650
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Sep 15, 2022 08:09
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MikeC posted:It may be a one-off, it may not. Do you know or have information to either effect? No? Then how do you evaluate this poster's claim that the "attritional phase has ended"? I am evaluating it on the basis the reporting shows the Ukrainians accurately targetted a section of the front manned by 3rd rate conscripts, threw its best equipped and best-trained regulars at it, and scored a big win and momentum has since petered out. Meanwhile, despite the "attritional phase" being over, the Ukrainians are going to enter their 3rd week in the Kherson grind and have little to show for it except a lot of stories of tough slogging and heavy casualties. If you have numbers to show the Russian collapse is imminent in Kherson feel free to share. Anyway, Russia's best and most are apparently in Kherson and the best they seem able to manage is slowing the Ukrainian advancement down, as the Ukrainian advantages seem to be continually piling up and Russia appears increasingly desperate and flailing. Obviously Russia hasn't collapsed there, but they're slowly losing ground, and unlike Ukraine, which was doing that while ramping up a huge number of new troops and integrating a vast amount of new Western equipment, Russia seems to have nothing to look forward to to save them.
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Sep 15, 2022 08:12
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Lmao, an interezting take. Apparently Putin is worried that his officials taken to drink after the war started https://news.zerkalo.io/world/22048.html
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Sep 15, 2022 08:40
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Another decent thread that doesn't say anything particularly new but lays out the dishonesty problem in Russia's army: everyone is lying, everyone knows everyone is lying, but people have to act as if they are being told the truth. https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1570169288849326082 https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1570169315248451585 https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1570169326149271559 But the reports still go up the chain so at some point Putin and the Russian MoD might genuinely have believed they were taking minimal losses while having completely destroyed the Ukrainian army several times over.
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Sep 15, 2022 08:53
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Alchenar posted:But the reports still go up the chain so at some point Putin and the Russian MoD might genuinely have believed they were taking minimal losses while having completely destroyed the Ukrainian army several times over. How could the MoD have believed it, when they were the ones making up the numbers in the first place? The Russian MoD were the ones who reported that they had destroyed 44 HIMARS, which is an incredible feat considering that Ukraine has only received 16 HIMARS. [E: Sorry fake news, it looks like the actual Russian MoD report was that 44 projectiles fired by HIMARS were intercepted https://eurasiantimes.com/44-himars-russia-faces-online-mockery-for-destroy-us-mlrs/], which doesn't make any loving sense either since Russia doesn't have an "iron dome" equivalent afaik which I doubt would intercept HIMARS rockets anyway? Looking further, it looks like the Russians have a highly dubious claim that the S-400 can intercept HIMARS rockets [FAKE NEWS TWEET WARNING, BAD SUMMARY OF WHAT MoD ACTUALLY SAID] https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1565380182130794497 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/09/us/ukraine-weapons-rockets.html NYT also says 16 HIMARS were shipped to Ukraine, Tweet above says 20; I suspect NYT is more correct than some Twitter person. Also not to derail further, but is there an actual thread about the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, that isn't this one? I saw like 8 posts in the Middle East thread, which seems as bad of a place to discuss it as this thread, and I didn't see it in the E Europe thread either. Saladman fucked around with this message at 09:06 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 09:00
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Saladman posted:How could the MoD have believed it, when they were the ones making up the numbers in the first place? Bug Squash fucked around with this message at 09:18 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 09:07
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Alchenar posted:Another decent thread that doesn't say anything particularly new but lays out the dishonesty problem in Russia's army: everyone is lying, everyone knows everyone is lying, but people have to act as if they are being told the truth. Brown Moses posted:The Russian MoD released a pair of videos showing what they claimed to be the destruction of an amphibious assault on Zaporizhzhya NPP:
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Sep 15, 2022 09:08
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https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3993523 - Eastern Europe thread.
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Sep 15, 2022 09:09
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mobby_6kl posted:It always made me wonder, if they actually believed they destroyed the Ukrainian Air Force (and all the HIMARS, etc) within hours like they claimed, or they knew it was propaganda. Like this poo poo: It's arguably even more stupid than this. They now report on every missile they claim to have destroyed one way or another. It's not 40 HIMARS launchers, it's 40 rockets. mobby_6kl posted:Is this propaganda for internal consumption and/or the west? Or was it a local commander who needed a win and told his pilots to go blow up some nazis for him, looked at the footage/report, and send it upwards? And that guy, because he also needed a win, didn't look to closely and send the report up the chain? Ironically, the platform was actually built by the Nazis. At least that's what I've read in Ukrainian sources. Russian 'anti-fake' propaganda claims that the Ukrainian barge was really hiding right behind the platform, and by miracle didn't get on video, but was definitely destroyed.
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Sep 15, 2022 09:16
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Paladinus posted:It's arguably even more stupid than this. They now report on every missile they claim to have destroyed one way or another. It's not 40 HIMARS launchers, it's 40 rockets. Our hero troops have destroyed another group of enemy rockets, by luring them into one of our ammo dumps. The rockets were cunningly tricked into detonating the ammo, thus ensuring their own destruction in the process.
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Sep 15, 2022 09:22
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steinrokkan posted:Our hero troops have destroyed another group of enemy rockets, by luring them into one of our ammo dumps. The rockets were cunningly tricked into detonating the ammo, thus ensuring their own destruction in the process. By intercepting HIMARS strikes with numerous ammunition depots the Russian AF have cleverly worked to degrade Ukrainian access to a key resupply pipeline
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Sep 15, 2022 09:40
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Rad Russian posted:There is no reason for Ukraine to rush. It can rest and rotate troops and wait for Russia to mess up supplies even more. Every day that passes is also more pressure on Russia with sanctions in place. I agree with this. They're not going to end the war before winter sets in so there's no point in overreaching and getting over extended. They've sent their message to Europe that they can win offensives and that they are worthy of continued support. While Russia is getting sanctioned at home and attrited in Ukraine, Ukraine is getting stronger. I don't know how many they have ready to go currently but I've seen targets of between 700k and 1 million troops being mobilised by Ukraine. They'll take time to train and equip but Ukraine has time now and will probably drastically outnumber Russia next year. They'll probably have some sweet new toys to try out on the Russians too since there seems to be a trend towards gradually giving Ukraine more and more advanced poo poo over time to avoid a sudden move that provokes Russia too much. Crapilicious posted:Been hearing that the dam breaking has caused serious issues for Ukrainian troops who are stranded in that bulge on the Kherson line, does anyone have any further analysis/can point me in the right direction for an answer? I doubt it, there's going to be a big slug of water heading down but once it's passed (or the engineers plug the hole in the dam) the water level should return to normal. I think they were crossing on a pontoon bridge so they probably would have packed it up while the high water passed through and then set it up again afterwards. Even if it did get washed away losing pontoon bridges is pretty normal in a war where logistical infrastructure is a priority target so I'm sure Ukraine has spares they can roll out at fairly short notice. Worst case, if Russia can hold on for weeks without bridges over the Dnipro I'm sure Ukraine can survive a few days without a bridge.
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Sep 15, 2022 09:47
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The takeaway from the dam strike without anything else is that it's evidence that Russia was sufficiently concerned about Ukraine's push over the the Inuhlets to feel the need to do it.
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Sep 15, 2022 09:53
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